YouGov’s regular voting intention poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 25%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. The Conservative lead remains strong and third place continues to bounce back and forth between the Lib Dems and UKIP (I expect they are actually about even and we’re just seeing normal random sample variation).

On best Prime Minister May leads Jeremy Corbyn by 53% to 13%. This is May’s highest figure since her honeymoon, Jeremy Corbyn’s lowest ever and the 38 point gap is the biggest we’ve recorded so far. This is the first poll since the attack on Parliament and Prime Ministers sometimes do see a boost to their reputation if they are seen to have handled an emergency with confidence so it could be connected, or the timing could be pure co-incidence.

The reason for the huge gap is Corbyn’s low support among Labour voters. Typically people answer these questions along partisan lines – Tory voters pick the Tory leader, Labour voters pick the Labour leader, the best PM lead ends up being similar to the voting intention lead. At the moment 94% of current Tory voters think that May would make the better Prime Minister, but only 46% of current Labour voters say Corbyn would (15% say May, 39% say “Not sure”). Among people who voted Labour at the last election Corbyn’s position is even worse, only 27% say he would make the better Prime Minister, 29% say Theresa May. Full tabs are here.

Given today is Article 50 day, I’ve also written a much longer piece over on the YouGov website bringing together lots of the recent YouGov research on Brexit – you can find that here.


743 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 43, LAB 25, LD 11, UKIP 10”

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  1. Candy,

    “GDP per capita was £53,361 in 2015, up from £29,357 in 2008. That’s astonishing growth.”

    Well that what happens if you are very small and you allow your economy to be driven by the rise on-line gambling to avoid tax.

    GDP per capita rises hugely, just like Luxembourg.

    That doesn’t mean the average person is really any better off and indeed if it fuels a property boom many might be worse off.

    Equally as with fast money flowing into (but actually through) Iceland or Cyprus, it can disappear as quickly as it arrives.

    Peter.

  2. somerjohn

    Thanks. just thought i would add that to make sure that no one thought i had been drinking in “Junckers bar”

    However,I do strive for a better class of abuse than Tancred

    Although i do seem to have upset euro patriot James E !

  3. RICH
    Why is it that all our lovely liberals on social media heavily criticised May for the bargaining point of security, but don’t criticise the EU for the same tactic with Gibraltar and it’s citizizens.

    HMG framed the terms of the referendum and decided to accept it despite it being advisory and the result very close. Gibraltar oted to remain even more strongly than Scotland but has been ignored by HMG just as much as Scotland.

    The fact that two hard land borders may apply to a former member which previously had none and which both polities impacted voted to avoid them is entirely due to HMG’s attitude. Anyone who had made the effort to read A50 [shorter than 1 A4 page] before voting would also have known that all the remaining 27 states as well as the European parliament have veto powers over any exit deal. Caveat emptor, as they say!

    It’s arguably reasonable to blame the electorates of England and Wales for any problems which arise but HMG could have circumvented the problem by announcing that it would renounce EU membership but remain in the EEA, perhaps initially as a half-way house.

  4. SOMERJOHN

    “However, those – like TOH – who insist that all the unpleasantness comes from remainers ”

    No I don’t, I have said abuse comes from both sides of the argument several times in the past, you make it up as you go along some times.

    Just to make clear I regard the EU as isolation, leaving it allows us to totally free to trade with the rest of the World in an unhindered (at least by the EU) way, which is what I do for the reasons i gave danny above.

  5. Most of the readers of this blog will, I guess, have some idea of the nature of Northern Ireland society. Here is a link to a piece which deals with the divisions within that society and says something about how they arose. It also covers the potential effects of Brexit on those N Irish divisions.

    https://www.thedetail.tv/articles/northern-ireland-living-apart-together

  6. Barbazenzero

    Did you see that our old friend “revocability” is back on the table?

    While there would be conditions applied to stop the UK using it as a tactic, the EU are open to the idea of the UK revoking the tabling of Article 50.

  7. Sam

    Thanks for the link.

    Good article, but predicated on the assumption that the hard border will be a land one across Ireland.

    While the neo-League-Of-Empire-Loyalists (who want to send gunboats to Gibraltar) would squeal, to those responsible for governing England, creating the hard border down the North Channel and Irish Sea may make good sense.

    Dumping Northern Ireland and Gibraltar, while claiming it was all the fault of the foreigners, and the only way to protect England, would satisfy many of their electorate.

  8. OLDNAT

    “Dumping Northern Ireland and Gibraltar, while claiming it was all the fault of the foreigners, and the only way to protect England, would satisfy many of their electorate.”

    Not me for one, nor I am sure the PM who is clearly a Unionist like myself.

    “While there would be conditions applied to stop the UK using it as a tactic, the EU are open to the idea of the UK revoking the tabling of Article 50.”

    No chance of the UK not leaving the EU IMO as I’m sure you know.

  9. OldNat

    Truth is the empire’s expansion was driven, in a large part, by Scots.

  10. CARFREW

    If your watching i got the dates of the Rugby wrong. Harlequins not playing today but their next match in the Premiership is agains Saracens as i posted.

    Sorry if i confused you.

  11. @TOH

    “No chance of the UK not leaving the EU IMO as I’m sure you know.”

    You would say that, wouldn’t you! Personally I think there’s quite a good chance, as the various catastrophes unfold: depends on whether the strategy of blaming everything on horrible foreigners prevails. (and if you I would say that, wouldn’t I! I’d confess it’s a fair cop).

    What worries me as much, however, is that the damage is already beginning to unfold. It’s not very apparent yet, as those who will disinvest have been biding their time and making plans in the background, as have those key workers (Alan may be an example) who are awaiting a propitious time – job offer, school term ends etc. None of them will come back in a hurry even if we do revoke Article 50, and the UK brand will be damaged forever, either way.

  12. The shrewdest post in the last couple of days has come from Danny.

    We will know if Brexit is not working and public opinion is turning against it in quite a simple way. We also know who will be responsible if we do not, after all, leave the EU.

    We watch the Foreign Secretary.

    If he starts to equivocate and to suggest we might consider delaying Leave are in big trouble. Any other Tory would not do this. But if Mr Johnson calculates Brexit is going to be unpopular and that he might be able to unseat the PM over it, he will do it in a trice. He would not give a seconds thought to the effect on the party or the country.

  13. Jasper

    I suspect that I know more of the involvement of Scots in the British Empire than you do.

    A principal reason for Scots mercantile interests enthusiastically welcoming the Union with England was access to the English Empire, not union with England per se.

    The greater the expansion of the British Empire (including the monopoly of the trans-Atlantic slave trade gained by the Treaty of Utrecht, which benefitted Glasgow greatly) the greater the trading and job opportunities for Scots.

    Our universities even changed their curriculum to more closely match Oxbridge, in order to take advantage of the opportunities created by the Government of India Act of 1858.

    However, my post was nothing to do with such historical matters.

    Perhaps it might be history to you, but the League of Empire Loyalists were still a political factor in the 1960s. I came across several members in Scotland.

    The knee-jerk reactions to the EU, Gibraltar etc from an element (perhaps small) within the Brexit movement is very reminiscent of the LOEL’s rage at the demise of Empire.

  14. @ToH

    Would you accept the end of the Union with Scotland as an acceptable price for Brexit?

  15. TOH

    Indeed. I do know your opinion, and the most likely scenario is that the UK does leave the EU – to your delight, and my regret.

    I raised “revocability” not as a likelihood, but that it now becomes a possibility – should there be significant change in attitude in the UK during the negotiations.

    The Brexiteers’ assumption that it wasn’t revocable, because the UK Government said it wasn’t, didn’t take that possibility off the table – and the EU has relaid the table!

  16. GUYMONDE

    I really don’t see any catastrophies happening. Yes I expect an turndown for a couple of years as we leave the EU as I posted before. Going forward I see investment and GDP growth booming once we have left the EU such than many countries within the remaining EU will look at us with envy.

    For the EU I think us leaving potentailly is a catastrophy, Germany will be expected to meet the budget shortfall and I cannot see the Germans doing that.

    However my hope is that it will not be a catastrophy for either the UK or the EU My desire as iI have said many times is to be free to trade with the whole World. I am 77 now and i cannot think of a time when i felt more confident about the UK’s future.

  17. @Oldnat

    I thought the League of Empire Loyalists became part of the National Front. So their direct influence lives on in the BNP, although not of course in UKIP who cannot possibly be linked to the BNP and who have no former BNP members (apart from all the former BNP member they have).

  18. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/get-ready-to-see-this-globalization-elephant-chart-over-and-over-again

    this is the cause, to some extent of the rise of populism in the west. Stagnation of the income of the working classes and the failure of politicians (either through inability or by design) to deal with this since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

    What is truely troubling is that the current government will have no interest to impliment the sort of policies that will go towards correcting this problem. Indeed, if (as some of the Tory cabinet no doubt desire) we don’t get a deal and become a large tax haven that the issue will be made worse.

  19. Chris Riley

    You are probably correct about the LoEL.

    I had assumed that they had just died off, as the ones that I came across were seldom young!

  20. @the Other Howard

    When you look at our productivity growth, wage growth and demographic changes it becomes very hard to be positive about the future.

    Add to this the fact that the debt cycle has continued unabated despite the crash on 2008 with savings at record lows thanks to a combination of expansionary monetary and mismanged fiscal policy and the prospects for the UK, in my view Brexit or no Brexit, looks bleak.

    For me the arguement to remain is simple – better economic prospects.

    The arguement to leave is also simple – sovereignty and avoiding ever closer union.

    Sadly I feel that the damage which will be done economy would outweigh any positive effects of increase sovereignty.

  21. CHRIS RILEY

    “Would you accept the end of the Union with Scotland as an acceptable price for Brexit?”

    That’s a hypothetical question and as I personally don’t think Scotland will leave the UK any time soon, although I accept I am not an expert on Scottish affairs. In any event if Scotland eventually votes to leave in a lawfull referendum some years in the future I will be sorry to see us part but I think it will have little to do with us leaving the EU. OLDNAT is better qualified to comment on that, I don’t usually comment on Scottish affairs and i don’t think this is the thread for it. My feeling are similar in respect of N. Ireland but again there are others better qualified to comment.

    OLDNAT

    As you know i understand and respect your views although they are the opposite of my own.

    I didn’t realise that “revocability” had been put on the table by the EU, if it has then I think that’s just another sign of weaqkness and how desperate the EU is for us to stay.

  22. JOHN SMITH

    Thank you for your post. There is little to say, we disagree fundamentally.

  23. Here is a link to another piece by the Detail on Northern Ireland’s divisions and how little has been done to heal them. Risks of Brexit are noted.

    https://www.thedetail.tv/articles/data-mapping-shows-northern-ireland-s-divisions-haven-t-gone-away

  24. TOH

    It’s always hard to work out just what the strategies adopted by politicians in advance of negotiations are designed to do.

    Personally, I am usually disinclined to assume that they are as straightforward as they may appear, or that they all should be interpreted as weakness by “them” and strength by “us”.

    That can often be wishful thinking – though not necessarily so!

    In fact, the last thing that I want is to be represented in negotiations by anyone who is likely to think that way!

    Bluff, double bluff and triple bluff are all potentially good moves – as are total distractors.

  25. @Sam

    Is there a length of time that Gibraltar could be British that would make Britain’s determination to allow her to remain British moral?

    500 years? 2000 years? 100,000 years?

    Or is geographic proximity always the only trump card to sovereignty? In which case there could be a fair bit of map redrawing to do, from Alaska, to the Channel Islands, to Kaliningrad, to Malaysia, to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands…

  26. OLDNAT @ Barbazenzero
    Did you see that our old friend “revocability” is back on the table?

    I did indeed. It would be interesting to know who suggested clarifying this.

    CHRIS RILEY’s comment re BoJo may be relevant there. It would certainly be a question for which HMG would like to know the answer. His current role would certainly have given him the opportunity to ask that question diplomatically.

    THE OTHER HOWARD
    I didn’t realise that “revocability” had been put on the table by the EU, if it has then I think that’s just another sign of weakness and how desperate the EU is for us to stay.

    Perhaps a pity that Gordon Brown didn’t make sure it was clear one way or the other when he negotiated the ability to leave the EU at Lisbon in 2007. Will he have a special place in the post-Brexit pantheon, I wonder?

    The EU have made it quite clear that leaving it will be more costly than remaining, but the clarification could have been at the request of either side.

  27. Neil A

    Morality and empire

    Not good bedfellows, I think you’ll find.

    Just going back to the earlier discussion on Enoch Powell, I remain for ever grateful that I am of a generation which was able to hear both Enoch Powell and Michael Foot on the BBC’s ‘Any Questions’. The careful use of language by the former (who was a great orator) and the passionate nature of the latter’s oratory remain with me to this day. They were both great men in their different ways, as well as being deeply flawed. Unfortunately, most of us are just deeply flawed.

  28. BZ

    “The EU have made it quite clear that leaving it will be more costly than remaining, but the clarification could have been at the request of either side.”

    Indeed but of course it will also be for then I suspect, certainly there is a big downside for the EU in our leaving.

    On Gordon Brown who knows, I have mixed views on him. In his favour keeping us out of the Euro despite Blair and I though he reacted well in 2008. I won’t bore you with “on the other hand”…………….. :-)

  29. OLDNAT

    Your 4.34

    Had to chuckle at that post, nicely done.

    John B

    Agree with your comments on EP & MF. Yes EP was a great orator.

  30. @OLDNAT “Did you see that our old friend “revocability” is back on the table? While there would be conditions applied to stop the UK using it as a tactic, the EU are open to the idea of the UK revoking the tabling of Article 50.”

    But of course they want us to revoke:

    – 2nd largest contributor to the budget
    – EU’s most powerful military force
    – A member of the UN security council
    – EU’s largest contributor to security and intelligence
    – EU’s most extensive diplomatic network
    – The USA’s closest ally
    – Largest Export Destination
    – Largest Trade Deficit with EU

  31. I was born in Gib. Ooh I might be able to hang on to my EU passport .

  32. I’ve noticed a few right wing commentators today saying it was “unfortunate” that May didn’t mention Gibraltar in her Article 50 letter, and that that created the opportunity for the EU response to be as it was.

    Why on earth do they think that May’s omission of Gibraltar wasn’t entirely deliberate?

    Spain has been upfront about vetoing any settlement including Gibraltar that did not meet with their approval.

    Unless May and her advisers were similar to the proverbial two short planks, then they knew that – and the inevitable consequences for a deal if Gibraltar was included.

    So, very wise of May to ignore Gibraltar in the letter. Very wise of the EU to sideline the issue.

    I’m beginning to think that a reasonable deal might be achievable – as long as both sides recognise (as I’m sure they do) that the zealots are a pain, but can be easily ignored. There will be no War of Jasper’s Ear.

  33. Sea Change

    Oddly, I was thinking of you when I typed the comment to TOH about those who can’t see past the outer wrapping of the parcel. :-)

  34. Labourlist is often an amusing read in terms of internal party arguments but to raise a polling subject I found these comments amusing :-

    “Lee Harris • a day ago
    If Screaming Lord Sutch were alive he would be polling better than Corbyn.

    JimmyBSands Lee Harris • 20 hours ago
    Why would he need to be alive?”

  35. @Oldnat

    Your comment is without substance. Please do explain the deep inner workings of the parcel which are more important than what I have listed. I’m pretty sure if the likes of Malta had had a referendum to leave the EU, the response would have been a simple “toddle pip”.

    The fact is the EU realises the UK is a major strategic loss. I should have added to the list above that the City of London is the key EU public and private financier too.

    Apart from the most ardent EUphiles, a high proportion of Remainers saw the UK’s primary reason for being a member as one of trade and finance rather than some grand project.

    But please do enlighten me.

  36. Chris Riley

    acceptable price for Brexit

    1. Should England and Wales remain in the the EU because a few thousand persons who lived in scotland voted remain as opposed to Leave?

    2.brexit is the excuse not the justification for an independence referendum. if it was not this it would be something else. The scottish electorate voted the nationalists in and know how to get them out. If you vote for fanatics do not be surprised when they do something fanatical. The rest of Britain could say .. we forego leaving the union to keep scotland in it only to be faced with another imagined grievance some where down the line. That is the problem with appeasing nationalists around the world and throughout history

  37. @ BAZINWALES

    Labourlist is often an amusing read in terms of internal party arguments but to raise a polling subject I found these comments amusing
    —————————————————————————-

    Don’t feed the trolls.

  38. valerie

    goodbye!

  39. New thread

  40. S Thomas.

    You are quite wrong to describe me as a ‘Euro patriot’, just as you were wrong to describe those who do not share your support for Brexit as ‘sociopaths’.

    Perhaps you could attempt to avoid insults altogether – many people do not share your views and to for you to repeatedly resort to name calling and wild accusations (typically of a kind of disloyalty to Britain) does nothing for this site.

  41. The lunatics have taken over the asylum.

  42. Chris Riley,
    “But if Mr Johnson calculates Brexit is going to be unpopular and that he might be able to unseat the PM over it, he will do it in a trice.”

    No doubt one of the reason for placing leavists in charge of Brexit is that they will have more credibility if they turn around and say it cannot reasonably be done.

    The Other Howard,
    “Going forward I see investment and GDP growth booming once we have left the EU”

    But why? The problem I have with Brexit is I see no reason why industry would consider the Uk a better place to be based if we are out of the EU. It simply is not better. Therefore there will be no rush of companies to move here, and inevitably EU directed ones will be moving out. leaving the EU reduces our attractiveness, and therefore must mean poorer prospects for the future.

    John Smith
    “Sadly I feel that the damage which will be done economy would outweigh any positive effects of increase sovereignty.”

    There are no positive effects on sovereignty. The net effect will be a UK more constrained by conditions imposed from outside over what it can do, not less. Just look at what the government is seeking to do, and claims of increased sovereignty are a joke, We are placing EU on a different footing but keeping it. We are placing immigration on a different footing but keeping it. There is no change here at all. What we are changing is our own ability to take part in the proess whereby these EU rules are made. I see no explanation how that is a net gain.

    I have not seen any credible argument why this is not true.

    Sea Change,
    “But of course they want us to revoke:”

    I read your list of reasons, but they are all wrong. The EU wants to see us change our mind because it would end talk in the UK of leaving the EU and demonstrate acceptance that being inside is the right way to go. The problem with the Uk is its inability to make up its mind whether it believes in the EU or not, and that is what they want a decision about.

    “The fact is the EU realises the UK is a major strategic loss”

    There will be some impact, but our trade is far less significant to them than us. This will shrink, but not unmanageably. The long term factors mean that much of this loss will be recovered anyway because of industry migrating inside the EU. long term they will not lose in terms of trade, though their world power will take a modest hit because the market will have shrunk by 60 million or so.

  43. Amusing graphic showing the extent to which Ms Sturgeon is modelling herself on Mrs Thatcher:

    http://i.imgur.com/M8ofZ4I.jpg

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