Tonight we’ve something we something unusual: a voting intention poll from Gfk. Topline figures are CON 41%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Fieldwork was between the 1st March and 15th March, so this is would have been partially before the budget, but it’s nice to have some figures from a different source.

Gfk are the successor company to NOP, who they bought out way back in 2005 (also, as far as I can see, the last time we had a NOP voting intention poll – before 2005 they polled for the Independent, called the general election spot on and then got their contract cancelled). Today’s poll has very little in common methodologically with 2005 of course, that was still the era of telephone polling, today’s poll was conducted online and is weighted by stand demogs, past vote, Brexit vote and political engagement.


186 Responses to “Gfk – CON 41%, LAB 28%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%”

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  1. CARFREW
    Why is everyone saying Guymonde?
    It’s like Ed Balls day. Only with Guymonde…
    ________

    It’s a month too early for Ed Balls day…28th April. TANCRED day is the 1st of April. ;-)

  2. Polling data on George Osborne’s seat….

    NumbrCrunchrPolitics? @NCPoliticsUK 3m3 minutes ago
    More
    Survation/38 Degrees (Tatton):

    CON 58 (-1)
    LAB 17 (-1)
    LD 12 (+3)
    UKIP 9 (-2)

    Chg vs 2015 result
    22 Mar
    N=507

  3. @John B

    1707? Don’t be daft! The English were importing wine from France at least from Henry II onwards. He married Elenor of Aquitaine (essentially the Bordeaux region) in the mid 12th Century!

    In fact, during many of the wars we had with the French they sometimes refused to sell us their wine. Disgraceful behaviour and worthy of a hundred years plus of invasions in its own right.

    Which is why the British settled areas of the Douro in Portugal to make wine as a backup source. Unfortunately, the long voyage often meant the wine went bad and so we started fortifying it with grape spirit so it could travel and thus wonderful, delicious Vintage Port was born.

  4. Apparently GfK and Mori were jointly responsible for the General Election exit polls of recent years which proved very accurate.

  5. GRAHAM

    Yes I see you’re singing this polling company’s praises because they have the Labour VI higher than other polling organisations.

    No protests today from Graham?………………No Sir!

  6. “In 2012 Brits were more likely to say they wanted the nation’s big issues to be decided by referendum. Now there is a twenty point lead for letting Parliament decide” (YouGov)

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/28/british-public-turns-against-referendums/

    “‘The best way to make such decisions is for MPs to consider them in detail and for the majority view in Parliament to determine what happens” 50% (+11)

    “‘The best way to make such decisions is for Parliament to hold a referendum and for the majority view among voters to determine what happens'” 30% (-15)

  7. @ALLAN CHRISTIE
    TANCRED

    ‘For a female, you have quite an atrocious cake hole.”
    I’m not a female you muppet!

    That’s OK then… ? Aren’t you both just a teeny bit embarrassed by this interchange?

  8. Syzygy

    But which of them has the nicer legs?

  9. oldnat

    sturgeon has no leg to stand on.:-)

  10. AC

    You have clearly not read my earlier comments re- this poll where I state that the Greens are too high and the LibDems too low.
    As it happens I am not a committed Labour supporter, but the 28% recorded here matches the figure given by Opinium and is 2% below the 30% last published by Mori.

  11. Strange. I’m sure I saw a ticker running across the guardian website saying European parliament have just said no Brexit deal without freedom of movement, must’ve dreamt it as its gone now.

  12. Guymonde

    I was feeling left out

  13. Oh well as everyone else is doing it….

    EDNOMYUG…

    Hope no one takes that the wrong way!

    Peter.

  14. SYZYGY
    @ALLAN CHRISTIE
    TANCRED
    ‘For a female, you have quite an atrocious cake hole.”

    I’m not a female you muppet!
    ………
    That’s OK then… ? Aren’t you both just a teeny bit embarrassed by this interchange?
    _________

    Well, you know what!! Am in a very good mood this afternoon and received a phone call from the estate agents a few hours ago telling me my offer for a property in Winchester has been accepted..From the end of next month, it’s goodbye Emmerdale farm Itchen Abbas and incredibly noisy animals and hello civilisation. ;-)

    So in the spirit of my good mood I will say looking back at our wee exchange it does look a little embarrassing but a little theatre on UKPR never goes a miss. :-)

  15. GRAHAM
    AC
    “You have clearly not read my earlier comments re- this poll where I state that the Greens are too high and the LibDems too low.
    As it happens I am not a committed Labour supporter, but the 28% recorded here matches the figure given by Opinium and is 2% below the 30% last published by Mori”
    ________

    I have read your comment and I also commented on the Greens and Lib/Dems. You keep protesting you’re not a committed Labour supporter but just about all of your comments are committed to Labour. You’re like Labour HQ on steroids.

    Now…Moving on….If you look at the Labour average in all polls (except this one) from 2015, the Labour average is 27% and this poll has Labour on 28%.

    As I have said to many of my Rangers supporting mates…Congratulations on your 1 point.

  16. @Pete – “Strange. I’m sure I saw a ticker running across the guardian website saying European parliament have just said no Brexit deal without freedom of movement, must’ve dreamt it as its gone now.”

    What they have said is that they will veto a deal if free movement doesn’t continue until the point of leaving – ie not allow a deal where the UK government applies different standards to EU nationals arriving here after A50 is triggered this week.

  17. Personally, I think the briefings from EU ambassadors in the UK saying that the UK government is telling them in private that they know they have to make a deal and that leaving without one would be a disaster is far more interesting. Apparently the UK has even accepted the ECJ ruling over any interim deal, and also the fact the the UK supreme court cannot be the future arbiter of any trade deal.

    Along with Davis’ acceptance of prolonged high immigration with no limits last night, we are beginning to see just how much nonsense so many Brexit voters fell for.

  18. Sea Change 12.17

    Thank you. I was not being daft, but, rather trying to point out that ‘British history’ can only go back as far as 1707 – or, if we count the union of the crowns, 1603. Anything happening before then may be English history, or Scottish history etc. but not British history. Unless we follow Metternich and refer to Britain as a geographical concept.

    So which were the many wars with France which ‘we’ had?
    As a Scot I can think off hand only of the Napoleonic wars, although, as Jane Dawson points out (Scotland Re-Formed, 1488 – 1587, Edinburgh 2007) it could be argued that the Protestant Scots fought a sort of civil war against the French Queen, Mary of Guise in the period 1543 – 60.

    The English, of course, seem to take great delight in any opportunity to attack the French, something which always seems very odd from the Scottish point of view (IMO).

  19. This is also well worth a read – https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/27/brexit-sugar-beet-cane-tate-lyle-british-sugar

    I’ve been looking with interest at the sugar example, and this is just the kind of complexity that eludes many pro Brexit voters.

    Leaving the EU and getting cheaper tariff free sugar means all manner of financial problems for (mainly Brexit voting) sugar beet farmers. This particular product is a relatively extreme example, with 40% tariffs, but there are many others.

    A central point was made by one of the farmers potentially affected – “If we are living in a higher-cost economy than Brazil, and as a society we value things that those higher costs support, then a degree of tariff protection to make that sustainable is legitimate.”

    The idea that there is some vaunted free trade nirvana out there, just waiting for the newly freed UK to exploit, is far more complex and twin edged than people seem to realise. We are the high wage economy, and competing against producers with cheaper cost bases is not always going to be to our advantage.

    It is odd to think that when we did still stride the world, sitting at the head of the commonwealth and with the freedom to strike deals with whichever nations we chose, we found life was actually a little bit sh!te and we begged to join the EEC.

    It may be that Alzheimer rates amongst older voters are much higher than we thought, or perhaps the NHS should remove rose tinted spectacles from their list of free services?

  20. Alec

    So is Theresa May all bluster and no backbone? Should we expect a referendum north of the Border despite TM’s protestations to the contrary? Does anyone really know what is going on?

  21. Alec

    Thanks for the Gaurniad link. I did not know that Davies was a Tate and Lyle man before his political life. Presumably TM knew, and this may be one reason for choosing him as the minister for Brexit.

  22. “Leaving the EU and getting cheaper tariff free sugar means all manner of financial problems for (mainly Brexit voting) sugar beet farmers.”

    Can the land not grow a different crop?

  23. AC
    ‘I have read your comment and I also commented on the Greens and Lib/Dems. You keep protesting you’re not a committed Labour supporter but just about all of your comments are committed to Labour. You’re like Labour HQ on steroids.’

    Garbage! – I have voted Labour at one of the last five general elections – and will certainly not do so in 2020 if Corbyn remains leader.You appear to confuse objectivity and a willingness to be contrarian based on a good memory for psephological stats – with partisanship. You happen to be wrong.

  24. “Can the land not grow a different crop?”

    Course it can. But most arable crops in the EU are afforded some level of protection. There is a sense out there that farmers who voted for Brexit are slowly beginning to realise that their world might just be turned upside down.

  25. @John B – “So is Theresa May all bluster and no backbone?”

    Well she is a politician, so who knows?

    The bottom line is that since June 23rd she has repeatedly said things that she knows not to be true, and there is abundant evidence from UK industry, the CBI, and now foreign ambassadors, that she is saying one thing in public and quite another to them in private.

    Make of that what you will.

    My guess that the plan has been to get a soft deal all along, but make the noises in an attempt to ensure Brussels gets the blame, rather than front up and face down the headbangers from the start.

    Spineless would be one word for it, but I’m sure there are others.

  26. John B

    it is only you who does not know what is going on .Let me spell it out for you:

    1. No general election before 2020.

    2. JC to lead the Labour party into that election;

    3. No scottish referendum before 2020 and probably never;

    4. Irrevocable Brexit from tomorrow.

  27. S Thomas

    I doubt that you will be proved correct on point 2!

  28. Meanwhile, as Theresa’s owl is fluffing out its feathers in order to fly the 207 miles from London to Brussels to deliver the Article 50 notification, Sturgeon’s Section 30 request will be speeding the 332 miles south from Edinburgh to London.

    Heaven forfend that Air Traffic Control screws up and sends each owl to the other’s destination.

  29. graham

    I understand why you say that but as i think our economic ties with the EU will be in transition in 2020 i do not see the rationale for one bearing in mind the cautious character of the leaderene.

  30. oldnat

    …Only to arrive as a dead letter on the floor of parliament to be swept up with all the other unsolicited mail.Let us hope it in true SNP character it is written in green ink in a spidery scrawl interspersed with capital letters with a saltire angry emoji face in the corner.
    NS is the billy McNomates of political europe.see you in moderation

  31. Lab and Lib-Dem vote against the franchise for 16 and 17 year olds and EU citizens.

    Details can only be discussed at the back of the bus –

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9821/comment-page-4#comment-1101435

    – and speaking very quietly, of course.

  32. Interesting YouGov poll on Labours six Brexit demands. To me the most interesting findings were the following:-

    “Despite widespread support for Labour’s tests the public don’t want them to derail Brexit. For all but one test, people believe that each ‘would be nice to have, but Britain should STILL LEAVE if it is not met’. When taking the package as a whole, just a third (32%) think Labour would be justified in opposing Brexit if all six conditions are not met, compared to over four in ten (44%) who think the party would not be justified. Around a quarter (24%) are not sure.

    Moreover, the tests the Prime Minister is probably least likely to pass – such as delivering for all regions and nations of the UK, and delivering the “exact same benefits” as Britain currently has from the single market and customs union – are the ones that the public are least likely to be seen as essential. Only 29% and 27% of the public respectively believe the UK should NOT leave if the test is not met.”

    The Tories continue to be the party considered best able to negotiate with a lead of 19% over Labour.

  33. “see you in moderation”

    Classic.

  34. Breaking news:-

    David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, has indicated that the UK government will block a Scottish independence referendum until the early 2020s.

  35. @OLDNAT

    “In 2012 Brits were more likely to say they wanted the nation’s big issues to be decided by referendum. Now there is a twenty point lead for letting Parliament decide” (YouGov)”

    Too bl**dy late now!

  36. TOH

    Wrong thread.

  37. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “Despite widespread support for Labour’s tests the public don’t want them to derail Brexit. For all but one test, people believe that each ‘would be nice to have, but Britain should STILL LEAVE if it is not met’.”

    Quite frankly, who cares? Do we now have government by referendum or by parliament? The majority of ‘ordinary people’ out there simply believe what the tabloids tell them and react accordingly. MPs are the ones chosen and paid to do the hard thinking for them.

  38. OLDNAT & AW

    Apologies.

  39. Tancred

    It’s an interesting poll, I think.

    It suggests that many people were formerly gung-ho r “let the people decide” on almost anything that a pollster asked if it should go to a referendum.

    Now it appears that many people have come to the conclusion that the really big decisions are incredibly complicated (when they had been told they were simple) and that they have been paying politicians for years to examine these issues in detail, and to decide on the best direction to take, when the buggers just chickened out as they were too weak and/or incompetent to do it, and dumped the decision on them.

  40. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, has indicated that the UK government will block a Scottish independence referendum until the early 2020s.”

    No surprise at all. It shows up Sturgeon as a toothless tiger and May in full control.
    Oh well at least the agenda is clear now – if Brexit is a failure and we leave with nothing then it will give the SNP a massive boost, otherwise Sturgeon may be forced to either backtrack on a referendum ot face certain defeat.

  41. oldnat

    wrong. The federated thread system was tried and found wanting.Posters preferred the unionist approach and we happy band of brothers are reunited and indivisible under one thread.

  42. TANCRED

    Well certainly MP’s care because ordinary people (and whether you like it or not I suggest we both fit that description) are the ones who vote them in or out of employment.

  43. @OLDNAT

    “Now it appears that many people have come to the conclusion that the really big decisions are incredibly complicated (when they had been told they were simple) and that they have been paying politicians for years to examine these issues in detail, and to decide on the best direction to take, when the buggers just chickened out as they were too weak and/or incompetent to do it, and dumped the decision on them.”

    You could well be right, but there is no sign as yet of any remorse on Brexit. Judging from last night’s QT it seemed plain to me that there are still many people who expect a long queue of countries coming to us begging for trade deals. The drivel spewed up by the tabloids has been bought – hook, line and sinker.
    I do have to say I thought Alex Salmond was on top form, and better than Clegg as a debater on the remain side.

  44. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “Well certainly MP’s care because ordinary people (and whether you like it or not I suggest we both fit that description) are the ones who vote them in or out of employment.”

    I think many MPs, especially Tories, could probably survive very well without their parliamentary jobs. I do think there is a lack of moral courage though, which is reminiscent of the appeasement years of the 1930s. My feeling is that back in the ’80s or ’90s May would not have had such an easy ride – she would have faced strong opposition in the parliamentary party.

  45. S Thomas

    Many would agree that Anthony’s policy of uniquely allocating Scottish issues to specific threads has peculiarities, but it’s his site.

    He makes the rules, and we can either follow them or sod off elsewhere.

  46. It’s Anthony’s site.

    His rules apply.

  47. I see Tusk is intending to make a statement on May’s Article 50 triggering – probably while she’s still on her feet in HoC.

    Not giving May a free run at the world press.

    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/03/28-tusk-updated-weekly-schedule/

  48. OLDNAT

    “Not giving May a free run at the world press.”

    I would have been amazed if there was no response.

  49. Labour and Lib-Dems used to support votes for 16-17 year olds.

    It now seems they oppose that. Anyone got a link to such a change of stance by either party?

  50. “The federated thread system was tried and found wanting.Posters preferred the unionist approach and we happy band of brothers are reunited and indivisible under one thread.”

    _________

    indeed oldnat moaned more than anyone about the devolved threads…

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