Tonight we’ve something we something unusual: a voting intention poll from Gfk. Topline figures are CON 41%, LAB 28%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%. Fieldwork was between the 1st March and 15th March, so this is would have been partially before the budget, but it’s nice to have some figures from a different source.

Gfk are the successor company to NOP, who they bought out way back in 2005 (also, as far as I can see, the last time we had a NOP voting intention poll – before 2005 they polled for the Independent, called the general election spot on and then got their contract cancelled). Today’s poll has very little in common methodologically with 2005 of course, that was still the era of telephone polling, today’s poll was conducted online and is weighted by stand demogs, past vote, Brexit vote and political engagement.


186 Responses to “Gfk – CON 41%, LAB 28%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%”

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  1. Good evening all once again…

    Yes, it’s refreshing to see some polling from someone else.

    It’s not terribly far out from the regulars but the Lib\Dems must be very worried. The Greens and the SNP look like catching them.

    Crossover?

  2. Quite a large sample…

    CON 41
    LAB 28
    LD 7
    UKIP 12
    GRN 6
    SNP 5
    1st-15th March
    N=1,938

  3. Greens look too high and LibDems too low.

  4. I suppose the exact percentage of LD, UKIP and GRN isn’t too critical.

    The Con and Lab look in the rough ball park.

  5. CMJ

    “The Con and Lab look in the rough ball park.”

    Does that comment suggest that both parties commit dirty fouls?

  6. @Oldnat

    Of course they do!! :-)

  7. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “It’s not terribly far out from the regulars but the Lib\Dems must be very worried. The Greens and the SNP look like catching them.”

    Another rubbish poll – meaningless crap.

  8. CMJ

    “Now is not the time” for such suggestions. At this juncture, divisive things such as political parties, opinion polls etc must be silenced, otherwise the UK’s enemies in the EU will sense that there is less than unity behind the glorious leader of the UK.
    Else, the survival of the Greatest, Most Preciouss Union that has ever existed will be compromised!

  9. Wondering why this site chooses not to have SNP in the headline figures. Is there a reason for this?

  10. TANCRED

    For a female, you have quite an atrocious cake hole.

    Moving swiftly on….

    A few forums ago BIGFATRON was going on about how in real terms the Lib/Dems had increased their vote share by 30%

    ie..7.9% at the 2015 election to polling 11% = 30%.

    Using his rationale then the Lib/Dems are down 12% on this poll since the 2015 GE. Plus you could factor in the 2% margin of error for this end of polling which could actually mean the Lib/Dems are polling neck and neck with the SNP who only stand for election in Scotland.

    The Lib/Dems may be doing well in village halls and in some suburbs around Cornish hamlets but nationally they are struggling in the polls. The party should look at joining up with the Greens and become ” DemGreens”

  11. All together now;

    Oh the LibDems connected to the Greens now…
    The Greens are connected to Dems now…
    Oh her the word of the Clegg…

    Demgreens, Dengreems them Demgreens…

    Oh why do I bother…..

    Peter.

  12. Peter

    :-)

  13. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    ….you cheeky monkey :-)

  14. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “TANCRED
    For a female, you have quite an atrocious cake hole.”

    I’m not a female you muppet!

  15. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    You can quote all the polls you like but the fact is that everywhere in local elections and by-elections the LibDems have improved on 2015. This is obviously a rogue and very inaccurate poll.

  16. The poll is a bit old – and also conducted over rather a long period – ie two weeks!

  17. @Allan C

    I see the Libs are marching forward gamely in the polls, ready to put a stop to Brexit! I hope you have some champagne on ice for Wednesday.

  18. Not that I’m a great fan of the Scottish Daily Mail, but they have a political headline on their front page, beside the photo of the UK PM and the Scottish FM.

    The London edition has the same photo, but just wants to compare their legs..

    Fortunately, Londoners aren’t the low life scum that their newspaper editors frequently are.

  19. Sea Change

    Champagne? How unpatriotic of you, Surely a bottle of Chapel Down Century Extra Dry would be much more appropriate?

  20. Just out of interest (given that the lack of polls for the last twelve years is due to the Independent cancelling the contract) who commissioned GfK to carry out this poll? Or did they just do it off their own bat to drum up interest?

  21. @OLDNAT

    Not tried it. The British have been buying French plonk for centuries, no need to be in a political union for that, believe it or not!

    I think this occasion requires Krug 1971. The only thing that saddens me is Heath is not here to witness it.

  22. I like this 12 year gap between polls. It clearly indicates that the crrent dire situation for Labour is the culmination of a long period of decline, and not the fault of Jeremy Corbyn at all.

  23. The most interesting thing about the new poll is the following:-
    Britain Elects? @britainelects reporting

    When voting to leave the EU, Britain made the…
    Right decision: 46%
    Wrong decision: 41% (via GfK / 01 – 15 Mar)
    No sign of a weakening in the leave position (or much in the remain).
    Looking forward to tomorrow.

  24. @ aldo_macb

    It’s called ‘othering’, despite holding more than 8% of westminster seats, to the Green’s 0.15% and UKIP now on 0%

    Probably harks back to the day when the SNP was part of ‘others’ as a tiny fraction of the UK %, and pollsters won’t change their formats.

    Maybe they expect the SNP to disappear quietly into the night. ;)

  25. @TOH,
    Another way of interpreting those figures might be that neither side has a clear majority and that Leave’s lead is margin of error stuff.

  26. RP

    Well after tomorrow it won’t matter if that’s correct or not.

  27. @theotherhoward:

    The Leave position is much stronger.

    The question, which is perfectly valid, is essentially “if we had the chance to do it all again, … should we?”

    But there are lots of Remainers, like Hague, who would say, “No”, but also oppose going back on th decision. Barbra Streisand was asking an office nteresting but wrong question in her song. The question is never should I have started this relationship, but should I end it. The poll asks a question is about old history.

    Obviously the Remain side includes those who are rooting for the EU to turn the negotiation into into a diktat.

  28. TOH

    ‘The most interesting thing…’.

    Perhaps ‘IMO’ (or even ‘IMHO’) might have helped there!

    :-)

  29. On a slightly connected theme, someone I know had a conversation a couple of days ago with one of the local Labour councilors, who seemed less than sanguine about his prospects of re-election come May. Are we likely to get any polls relating to local elections north of the Border, or is the Scottish electoral system too complicated for the English polling companies?

  30. Sea Change 5.14

    Yes, the British have been buying French plonk since 1707, and the Scots (I cannot speak for the English) were buying it long before that as well.
    As for ‘political union not being required’, well I didn’t know you were now an SNP supporter!

  31. @oldnat
    “Fortunately, Londoners aren’t the low life scum that their newspaper editors frequently are.”

    Showing outrageous prejudice again. Many of us Londoners are proud to be low life scum

  32. Tancred,

    “I’m not a female”

    No….but your are a Big Girls Blouse!

    Peter.

  33. @statgeek
    “Maybe they expect the SNP to disappear quietly into the night. ;)”

    Isn’t that what the SNP want (related to the (dis)United Kingdom)

  34. We can’t really say much about this poll till we see at least another two or three.

    As Anthony points out the methodology used is radically different from that used in 2005 and we can add to that just how seismic the political changes have been… The crash, the coalition, the Indy ref, Brexit.

    Like everyone else their methodology will have “House Effects” but we won’t know what they are until we see both the tables for this one and then have enough additional polls to see how they differ from other Companies.

    On the face of it they have the Tories a little lower, Labour marginally higher and the balance in favour of UKIP over the LibDems, all of which might just be explained by how they have decided to calculate the Unallocated recall vote.

    Peter.

  35. @joseph1832 (surely you’re not really that old?)

    I remain a remainer but I’m also a democrat. The Great Leader has settled upon her interpretation of what 52% of us voted for. Talks will play out as they will. If they play out well, the democratic view is unlikely to change. If they play out badly (or some more extreme adverbly) the democratic view might, or might not, change. On a polling site, we’d be interested in tracking developments in opinion. If opinions change significantly , the democratic response will be to consult the public once more.

  36. Changes since the last poll-

    Conservatives: +9%

    Labour: -8%

    Lib Dems: -16%

    Good poll for the Tories, very bad for Labour, and a shocking decline for the Lib Dems.

  37. @Guymonde

    “I remain a remainer but I’m also a democrat. The Great Leader has settled upon her interpretation of what 52% of us voted for. Talks will play out as they will. If they play out well, the democratic view is unlikely to change. If they play out badly (or some more extreme adverbly) the democratic view might, or might not, change. On a polling site, we’d be interested in tracking developments in opinion. If opinions change significantly , the democratic response will be to consult the public once more.”

    My view exactly.

    I would also say that I would expect that any person of good faith would agree.

  38. guymonde

  39. guymonde

  40. Nigel Farage has announced he’ll leave the country if Brexit fails.

    That’s a bit of an issue, because any settlement that involves Farage leaving the country can’t be considered to be unequivocally a failure.

    We may get stuck in the very difficult situation whereby a Brexit failure causes Farage to leave the country, whereupon it becomes a success and he has to come back. At which point it becomes a failure again and he gets stuck in an infinite loop.

    Very awkward. The best way for this to be resolved is if he just left now and we never heard anything from him again.

  41. Interesting results from Markit’s monthly household survey by Ipsos Mori showing increasing pessimism about the economic impact of Brexit on households:

    “The survey found that the proportion of people expecting the economy to fare better over the next ten years as a result of Brexit has fallen to 29% from 39% last July.

    Meanwhile, the proportion who think the UK’s economic prospects have got worse has risen from 42% to 53%, resulting in a net balance of -24% — down sharply from the -3.5% last July.

    The data also shows that the country’s lowest income group has shifted from being the most optimistic about the economic impact of Brexit to the most pessimistic.”

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/markit-brexit-british-households-increasingly-pessimstic-2017-3

  42. Why is everyone saying Guymonde?

    It’s like Ed Balls day. Only with Guymonde…

  43. Guymonde

  44. @guymonde:

    I entirely understand that democracy never sleeps.

    What I dislike is that many of our legislators are offering to ride shotgun for the EU in the negotiations. A bad deal is almost a pre-requisite for a reconsideration. There are many MPs are hoping that the EU will insist on that deal so they can deliver a reversal from in Parliament.

    You could contrast Hagues article in the Telegraph on where the EU is unreasonable and where Brexiters are unrealistic, to the blank cheque that Clegg would give the EU.

    Being prepared to say “I told you so” is fine. Working with the EU to create the opportunity of doing so is another matter. Do you believe Clegg has ever argued with EU colleagues for why the UK should be given a good deal? I don’t exclude the possibility, but it seems unlikely.

  45. lib dems totally underestimated. Richmond by election, witney and then the party with the most gains in local by elections…..not sure how this equates…baffling statistics if they are to be relied upon?

  46. “Nigel Farage has announced he’ll leave the country if Brexit fails.”

    Just added another reason for it to fail.

  47. guymonde

  48. Good morning all from a warm and sunny’ish central London.

    TANCRED
    @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “I’m not a female you muppet”

    “You can quote all the polls you like but the fact is that everywhere in local elections and by-elections the LibDems have improved on 2015. This is obviously a rogue and very inaccurate poll”
    _________

    You’re not a female? Well, I suppose on the internet you can be whoever you want to be! I’m Mini-Me.

    Back to polling…Yes I’m well aware of the Lib/Dems mini-revival in local/Westminster by-elections, I only spend half my time on UKPR updating you buggers on the results, but the fact remains that as far as all national polling goes the Lib/Dems haven’t seen the sort of momentum one would have expected when taking in the current political climate.

    Until the Lib/Dems reach consistent national polling of 15½% which is halfway between their 2010 and 2015 election results then I’m afraid the Lib/Dems are nothing but a wee local government protest party.

  49. GUYMONDE

  50. GUYMONDE

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