ICM’s regular poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 45%(+1), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 10%(-1), GRN 4%(-1). Another post-budget poll showing the Conservative poll lead holding strong – despite all the fuss and the government U-turn, it does not appear to have had any negative impact on voting intention. ICM still have UKIP holding onto third place, but only by the skin of their teeth.

The poll aslso asked about the best team on the economy, with May & Hammond recording a 33 point lead over Corbyn & McDonnell (44% to 11%) and whether each party was honest or dishonest. Every party was seen as more dishonest than honest, but the Conservatives were the least bad: 19% thought the Tories were honest, 26% dishonest (a net score of minus 7), 13% thought Labour were honest, 24% dishonest (net score of minus 11), 11% thought the Lib Dems honest, 25% dishonest (net minus 14), 8% thought UKIP honest, 38% dishonest (minus 30).


653 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45, LAB 26, LDEM 9, UKIP 10”

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  1. Anthony,
    I have now discovered that email addresses under the Orange umbrella – including the freeserve address I have been using – are to be discontinued from May 31st. Whilst that does not quite explain why I have encountered problems at this stage, I am going to now use a new email address.

  2. @ John B

    Are you trying to suggest the average Glaswegian, Aberdonian or Dundonian aren’t as gobby as the average Londoner, Man of Kent or Essex girl?

    Not my experience.

  3. The ICM poll is really disastrous for Labour , and certainly adds to to the mountain of evidence that the present leadership is leading the party to catastrophe. Hopefully Labour will suffer a bloodbath on May 4th – and feel relieved that no election is now likely before the Autumn.

  4. “a functioning democracy needs viable alternatives to be offered to the electorate”

    ———-

    Well you could argue it needs a viable electorate to make good choices. Or no electorate, just randomly selected MPs. (Apart from me, I’m busy, obvs…)
    L

  5. Scotland has a formidable opposition – the Scottish media constant criticism of the government – not the sycophantic nonsense you get in the British press, If the Scottish government was presiding over a NHS like ENHS the media would be in meltdown.

  6. @Neil A

    “I hear this kind of comment a lot and I never quite understand what people are getting at.”

    ——-

    I’m guessing, but whatever he’s getting at, it’s possibly not good news for English peeps!!…

  7. There seems to be lots of fed up people.

    Tired of the Government? Sick of the Opposition? We could all chip in and buy an island (UKPR Island), and ask AW to be El Presidente…..

    http://www.privateislandsonline.com/islands/west-calf-island

    Split the cost between us?

  8. Graham – “feel relieved that no election is now likely before the Autumn.”

    I don’t think there is going to be an election before 2020.

    The only scenario where an election would have been called was if the Commons rejected Article 50. Mrs May would then have triggered a general election to ask the public if they wanted to go ahead and leave the EU, and give her a mandate to do so.

    But now that Article 50 is to be triggered next week, she won’t want to shut down Whitehall for any reason in the next two years, because they will be working flat out. And so will she. No time for election politicking, let alone planning election strategies, manifestos and so on.

  9. Candy,
    If I remember correctly , you yourself have been a strong advocate of an early election.

  10. @Graham

    I was when I thought Article 50 was going to be blocked!

    But now that we have at last got to the point where it is being triggered, I find that I’d rather Mrs May concentrated on getting the best possible deal, rather than on decimating Lab. It’s not like poor old Lab is a threat to the universe or anything!

  11. Candy true the only threat Labour are is to themselves Hard to see it changing in the near future .May can get on with the deal without any real concerns.

  12. As I have posted before, no change in voting intention can be expected until something happens. Nothing has happened yet, despite all the angst and the acres of wasted news and twitter-print.

    It is however true that the drama of leaving the EU is overwhelming the normal day-to-day troubles of governing which would usually lead to a drop in support for the ruling party. But the dam could easily burst if things go wrong…

  13. Looking at the full results (thanks for the link, Candy), I see that ICM say that “Only members of non-white communities offer up a Labour lead over the Tories”. Even then, it’s only 35%-29% to Labour.

    I know we have to be careful of cross-breaks but when all but one of the standard demographics point one way, it’s significant IMO.

    Though things have been moving that way for some time, there is a danger that Labour could become identified as the ‘ethnic’ party in some minds, which would not help social cohesion.

  14. Has anyone ever done any research on Don’t Knows? Do they generally not vote, vote in a particular way or tend to split in the same way that the will votes say they are going to. I would have thought the latter.

  15. Hello all. I still lurk but decided to take a break from posting.

    Neil A’s “immutable” point is got me thinking about the immutable polls in the run up to the 2015 election. They were immutable and wrong as they failed to pick up a decline in the Labour vote share. Obviously the Tories are miles ahead but I do wonder if the Lib Dems are doing better than their current immutably low score. I wonder if May has any internal polling on the yellow team?

    We currently do not have a fully functioning democracy; indeed the wheels are coming off the whole political wagon. Who knows where we will be in 2020? In normal circumstances, a snap election would be an obviously correct call, but risking further political and economic instability would be very risky for the government.

  16. Pete B

    I think that you are absolutely right, it is incredibly significant. If Brexit was the main motivation for the Tories rise then it would surely be in the areas where Brexit was strong and retainers would be against.

    It appears that the change from the election is that all lost Labour voters have moved to Tories as well as a lot of UKIP voters. Brexit may explain all of it i.e. UKIP is no longer needed and leave labour voters have moved across but the move across the demographics is hard to understand.

  17. Sky online poll of 2000 participants with Scottish registered addresses reporting:

    More Scots think Theresa May is doing a better job than Nicola Sturgeon, an online poll for Sky News has found.

    The Sky Data survey of more than 2,000 people with registered addresses in Scotland put the Prime Minister’s approval rating at six percentage points higher than Scotland’s First Minister.

    The head of the Scottish Conservatives Ruth Davidson polled five points above the PM.

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn fared worst in the survey, which also included the party’s head in Scotland Kezia Dugdale.

    A nationally representative poll of people living in Scotland gave their views on whether party leaders were doing a good or bad job. The results were as follows:

    Theresa May: good 48%, bad 47%
    Jeremy Corbyn: good 16%, bad 77%
    Nicola Sturgeon: good 42%, bad 54%
    Kezia Dugdale: good 36%, bad 50%
    Ruth Davidson: good 53%, bad 36%

    The survey was carried out in the week after Ms Sturgeon announced her proposal for an independence referendum between autumn 2018 and spring 2019 – around the point at which the UK leaves the European Union.

  18. O/T Nick Griffin is emigrating to Hungary which he hopes will be a homeland for people with his type of views:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nick-griffin-bnp-emigrate-hungary-next-six-months-british-national-party-a7638131.html

    Hopefully this will help europhiles recognise that the EU is edging dangerously towards a qualified majority for fascists and Britain has left just in time.

  19. @bantams

    Is this a properly weighted poll or a survey of Sky users? Sky Data don’t seem to be a member of the BPC. Can you link to the full tables with the raw data and the weighting approach?

  20. @Bantams

    Are we meant to post voodoo polls on this site? Sky data is not a member of BPC we have no idea regarding their methods. I could just as easily post the Scottish local radio station polls which all have Yes support at nearly 70%.

  21. @Candy

    Don’t knows don’t currently know how they’re going to vote.

    That doesn’t mean they’re not going to vote. 20% of the sample say that they don’t know how they’re going to vote. 4% say they’re not going to. From this we conclude that a lot of the population don’t know how they’d vote in a hypothetical general election tomorrow, but that many of them would vote.

    And all this Gen Z rubbish is rubbish. I deal with it all the time in my line of work.

  22. And for the record

    March Scottish polls that asked approval Q

    YouGov Scottish poll Sturgeon +16 May -10
    Ipsos-Mori on representing Scotland’s interests Sturgeon +15 May -36

  23. “Nick Griffin is emigrating to Hungary”

    He should come back where he came from.

  24. @Chris Riley

    ICM take account of the people who refuse or say they don’t know. See their notes on page 2 of the tables:

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017_guardian_march17_poll2.pdf

    They reallocate “partial refusers”. On total refusers they say the following:

    quote

    ‘Total refusers’ are people who refuse/DK their future vote intention AND also refuse/DK who they voted for in the previous General Election (2015). Given the lack
    of any political information about such respondents to date, ICM has excluded them from the vote intention figures. However, our post-2015 Recall Survey revealed that Total Refusers (who were subsequently willing to tell us what they did in the 2015 General Election) split disproportionately across different parties. Indeed, one
    important observation was that more than half of all Total Refusers actually voted Conservative, with more than twice as many voting Conservative than Labour

    end quote

    It;s also worth noting that ICM’s “spiral of silence” adjustment increased the Lab share. Without it, the Tory lead would have been 21%.

  25. @Candy – “Hopefully this will help europhiles recognise that the EU is edging dangerously towards a qualified majority for fascists and Britain has left just in time.”

    I’m assuming here that you aren’t proposing this literally, but merely cracking a joke?

    If not, then apart from the formalities of defining ‘fascist’ in modern European political terms, you would need to work out how close we are to getting 55% of EU countries representing 65% of the EU population to vote as a fascist block.

    This seems unlikely.

    I’ve left out the UK, for starters, so we are only looking at the EU27.

    The Dutch have just voted to not be fascists, so they’re out, and I’ve also put the Greeks into the not fascist column. Malta, Luxemburg and Ireland seem not too blackshirt, so they’re out, Finland, Denmark and Sweden likewise. Far too friendly to be Nazis, surely?

    Cyprus seems quite laid back, and the Belgians don’t appear to getting out the jackboots just yet, while the Portuguese seem happy enough making fancy egg custards rather than invading Poland, so I’ll put them all to one side.

    That leaves the EU still a bit fascist, but only just, under QMV. Two more countries to flip over, or one country with more than 17.64% of the population and – bingo! – the EU is no longer fascist!

    Germany would do it, but let’s be honest – when it comes to being fascists, they’re a bit suspect aren’t they? Best leave them in. On the basis that Austria just elected a green as their president, I think we need to let them escape their vaguely fascist past, so you only need one from Spain, France or Italy to not be fascist and the EU is saved, even if all the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, the rest of central and Eastern Europe, and Germany all polish up their Iron Crosses.

    Phew. That was close.

  26. More from Peter Pan’s Brexit News –

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/20/bbc-risks-undermining-brexit-damaging-uk-pessimistic-skewed/

    You just need to believe, and if it goes wrong, it’s your fault for not believing hard enough.

  27. @Alec

    The govts of Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia all fit the definition, and Poland has a lot of votes in the Council.

    I know you are high-fiving about the Dutch but they just increased Wilders seats from 13 to 20. The trend is in their direction.

    And lots of Europeans were patting themselves on the back that the far right “only” got 49% of the vote in Austria. But that is a huge amount that Nick Griffin could never hope for in the UK…

    And then there is France, with their huge voting bloc on the Council, coming up for elections.

    I’d say Griffin escaping Brexit Britain for an EU more to his liking pretty much confirms the direction of travel!

  28. “…and Poland has a lot of votes in the Council.”

    Um… by ‘a lot of votes in the Council’ I’m assuming you mean more than 0 but less than 2?

    Yes, the general drift in the EU has been to the right, but we aren’t quite at the Fourth Reich just yet. You conspicuously failed to engage in a sensible discussion on how fascism could gain a majority under QMV, so I’ll revert to my original assumption that your initial post was an illustrative jest, and no more.

  29. @Alec

    Under the qualified majority rules Poland has 27 votes. Czechia and Hungary have 12 votes each. Slovakia has 7 and France 29.

    It”s no good citing tiny counties like Malta (3 votes) and Cyprus (4 votes), they can’t outvote the big boys.

    Lets see how this develops – but I expect in a decade’s time your grandchildren will be asking “why did you vote to stay in fascist europe, grandpa?”

  30. I just love the fact that a Country leaving the EU largely because to many foreigners are coming here is pretending that they’re the right wing ones!

    Peter

  31. @Peter Cairns

    Ask Laszlo to elucidate what is happening in Hungary, and then ask yourself why Ms Sturgeon is panting to get into ever closer union with them…

  32. @ Millie “I am sure that part of TM’s popularity is that she has been unfussy and straightforward. Most people want her to get on with it, and do her best.”

    I agree with you. She comes across as serious, determined and fair- minded. She’s not a great orator, she’s not smooth or flashy. She is the antithesis of Blair and Cameroon in many ways.

  33. @Graham “The ICM poll is really disastrous for Labour , and certainly adds to to the mountain of evidence that the present leadership is leading the party to catastrophe. Hopefully Labour will suffer a bloodbath on May 4th – and feel relieved that no election is now likely before the Autumn.”

    I note your disastrous and catastrophe adjectives. Good to have you aboard the CORBACOM train. Alec and I usually take turns in driving, but we need a volunteer conductor to be ASLEF compliant.

    There really is no light at the end of the tunnel for Labour at the moment. The question is can Corbyn hang on until the next GE and will the Tories try and go to the country early to secure a monstrous landslide while he remains in place.

  34. Here’ a question for AW or anyone in the know. Do any BPC polls habitually include 16-17 year olds in polls?

  35. @Sea Change
    My views of Corbyn have been consistent all along, and I have almost invariably agreed with Alec’s comments on the subject.My occasional scepticism regarding polling methodologies should not be mistaken for any sympathy for the current Labour leadership.

  36. @Candy

    Read the flippin’ tables.

  37. @CANDY

    “Hopefully this will help europhiles recognise that the EU is edging dangerously towards a qualified majority for fascists and Britain has left just in time.”

    And this is all you need as evidence? Nonsense. Hungary is no more ‘fascist’ than UKIP – their views are similar on immigration.

  38. @CANDY

    “Ask Laszlo to elucidate what is happening in Hungary, and then ask yourself why Ms Sturgeon is panting to get into ever closer union with them…”

    Laszlo is so left wing that he makes Corbyn look like a Tory!

  39. @SEA CHANGE

    “I agree with you. She comes across as serious, determined and fair- minded. She’s not a great orator, she’s not smooth or flashy. She is the antithesis of Blair and Cameroon in many ways.”

    In other words she is dull and mediocre and people like that because she is like them!

    There is certainly a tendency in this country to dislike brilliant people – an anti-intellectualism if you like- and this is yet more evidence of this.

  40. @CANDY

    “I know you are high-fiving about the Dutch but they just increased Wilders seats from 13 to 20. The trend is in their direction.”

    Wilders is not a ‘fascist’. He is basically a populist and anti-immigratiion politician in the same mould as Trump. The right wing candidate in Austria likewise.
    If you call these people fascist then you would have to do the same to Trump, Farage and others.

  41. @ALEC

    Candy is throwing bombshells here and there to show the EU in the worst possible light. We are not in 1940 and there are no strutting fascists trying to dominate the political scene. The European right is anti-immigration but other than that they are not radical at all. There are genuine fascist parties in Europe, but these have microscopic support, mainly from the skinhead community.

  42. @Tancred “she is dull and mediocre”

    Well, you may be proved right on the mediocre front. Time will tell.

    “There is certainly a tendency in this country to dislike brilliant people – an anti-intellectualism if you like- and this is yet more evidence of this.”

    Are you suggesting Cameron was/is brilliant?

    My comment was comparing May to Cameron (and Blair)

  43. @CANDY

    “Lets see how this develops – but I expect in a decade’s time your grandchildren will be asking “why did you vote to stay in fascist europe, grandpa?””

    Utterly ridiculous. Have you been to the continent recently? What evidence is there of fascism about to take over?
    You should stop spreading these lies and nonsense. It’s time Anthony banned you from this forum as you are obviously not capable of debating in a rational way.

  44. @SEA CHANGE

    “Are you suggesting Cameron was/is brilliant?”

    No, far from it. But he is a far more natural politician than May. May is more like a banking executive (which is what she is).

  45. @Candy – thanks, but I’ll just accept your gracious apology for being so completely factually incorrect.

    You can explain to yourslef why here – http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/voting-system/qualified-majority/

    You are looking at the old system of voting, which changed on November 2014, so you’re only two and a half years out of date – that’s not bad for you. Member states can still request the old system is used up to the end of this month (a week on Friday), but even here there needs to be 15 member states agreeing and rules ensuring at least 62% of the population support the measure.

    To help, I’ll explain (again) how QMV actually works.

    It operates under a double majority system. There needs to be 55% of member states supporting, representing 65% of the EU population. To reject a measure, there needs to be a blocking minority, which means at least 4 states with 35% of the population, which basically means any three from Germany, Spain, Italy or France plus one other nation of any size. It’s really hard actually, to see how extremist positions can be taken within the EU because, you know what – the people who designed the EU understood a little bit about fascism.

    Each state has a single vote for the former, and their populations are used to calculate their % share for the latter.

    The above rules apply to proposals coming from the Commission or the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, which covers about 80% of EU legislation. For proposals coming from anywhere else, like the EU parliament or member states, QMV rules state that 72% of council members representing 65% of the population needs to be in favour, giving you even further protection from fascism.

    Apart from having the pleasure of being able to educate you in how the EU actually works in the real world, as opposed to the Mythical World of Candy, I find the reasoning behind your apparent way of thinking highly odd.

    Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the EU voting system and national politics really was looking like the institution might turn fascist. In my world, this would be bad for the UK regardless of whether we were in the EU or outside it.

    How best could we prevent this from happening?

    We could just leave the EU and let them get on with it, and just sit by while the blackshirts swamp the continent. Or we could use our 1 vote and 12.79% of the population (variously a quarter and more than a third of what would be needed to block any extremist propositions) to actually help the continent stay safe, and protect ourselves while doing so.

    Just to finish, a couple more factual errors in your post.

    You say – “Lets see how this develops – but I expect in a decade’s time your grandchildren will be asking “why did you vote to stay in fascist europe, grandpa?””

    Well I would be mighty surprised if they did, as I’m a woman with no children.

    So there!

  46. Alec
    Your exposition of how EU voting works makes me realise that FPTP does have certain virtues after all. The main one being that it’s comprehensible.

  47. @Pete B

    QMV is certainly no harder than going through party manifestos and assessing the relative merits of policy.

  48. @Pete B – “Your exposition of how EU voting works makes me realise that FPTP does have certain virtues after all. The main one being that it’s comprehensible.”

    Personally, I find it quite straightforward to understand, although in truth, they are designed for completely different things.

    If the EU Council was run on the lines of FPTP, then @Candy’s idea that fascists could take over, while being still pretty fanciful, would have more merit, if each state had a single vote and voted by FPTP majority. You could then have 14 tiny states representing a fraction of the EU citizenry dictating extremist policy.

    Even on a national basis, FPTP gives minority groups a much greater chance of sweeping to power on a minority vote. I suspect the UK still muses FPTP precisely because we’ve never had a serious chance of extremists gaining power, whereas the Europeans know what that feels like.

  49. I have to say it, but I think it’s time to say I did tell you so.

    Today’s bigger than expected jump in inflation takes us up to 2.3%, and means real wages are falling again, if you use the three monthly measure.

    A couple of weeks ago I expressed incredulity at the OBR’s budget prediction of inflation peaking at 2.4% this year, and I had a sneaking suspicion that we might actually break that in the next set of figures, although I missed that by a squeak.

    I remain completely baffled as to how the OBR can think that the 2.4% peak is remotely justified on the evidence they had when drafting their pre budget analysis, and this data supports my sense that they have simply got it wildly wrong.

    This matters, an awful lot, as the entire GDP predictions depend on consumer spending, which is highly likely to subside if real wage grwth turns negative, as there is already evidence that consumers are starting to be less keen on borrowing for consumer goods.

    Increasingly, I am giving the OBR less and less credence. Their predictive record is somewhere between poor and appalling, defying the most basic of logic. I now suspect that their critical function is merely to provide the government with political covering fire for major economic set pieces, and that they have no useful economic purpose.

  50. ALEC

    @”A couple of weeks ago I expressed incredulity at the OBR’s budget prediction of inflation peaking at 2.4% this year, ”

    Dis OBR actually say that?:-

    “We now expect CPI inflation to average 2.4 per cent in 2017, up from 2.3 per cent in November. We expect it to peak at 2.7 per cent in the final quarter of 2017, before gradually declining”

    3.58
    Page 53
    Economic & Fiscal Outlook
    March 2017

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