ICM’s regular poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 45%(+1), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 10%(-1), GRN 4%(-1). Another post-budget poll showing the Conservative poll lead holding strong – despite all the fuss and the government U-turn, it does not appear to have had any negative impact on voting intention. ICM still have UKIP holding onto third place, but only by the skin of their teeth.

The poll aslso asked about the best team on the economy, with May & Hammond recording a 33 point lead over Corbyn & McDonnell (44% to 11%) and whether each party was honest or dishonest. Every party was seen as more dishonest than honest, but the Conservatives were the least bad: 19% thought the Tories were honest, 26% dishonest (a net score of minus 7), 13% thought Labour were honest, 24% dishonest (net score of minus 11), 11% thought the Lib Dems honest, 25% dishonest (net minus 14), 8% thought UKIP honest, 38% dishonest (minus 30).


653 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 45, LAB 26, LDEM 9, UKIP 10”

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  1. Are we soon to see the Tories at 50%?
    What strange times these are….

  2. WB

    The more aggravation from NS the more support for the Tories. Why are posters surprised?Look at the 2015 election.The London media seem to take NS side in any dispute with TM almost as a default position. London is not the UK .

  3. And yet another truly dreadful poll for Labour.

    Tories on 45% after the budget fiasco and a winter of discontent over the NHS & Social Care.

    Brexit is the only game in town it seems.

  4. It appears that the British public believe the old joke

    “How can you tell if a politician’s lying?”
    “His lips are moving”

  5. A surprisingly positive poll for the Tories after a supposedly difficult period.

    I’m not at all sure that the Nat Ins U turn was negative at all in polling terms. People quite like it when someone changes their mind and admits a mistake: its endearing. We all tire of endless spin and political contortions to try and escape responsibility – it comes as a pleasant surprise when a politician just says ‘sorry – I got that wrong’, which is pretty much what Hammond did.

  6. Before anyone says it, I know he did some squirming first

  7. Excellent poll for the Tories, terrible for Labour and well, nothing much to say on the Lib/Dems…One poll shows them on double figures, another flatlining and this poll has them moving up a smattering.

    I’m beginning to think large sections of the English public are uniting behind the Tories and using them as a battering ram for English and British nationalism in the face of anti-EU sentiment and Tartan tantrums to the north. I’m not convinced 45% of the public are backing the Tories purely day to day policy matters.

    What the are showing for the Tories and what’s happening in the real Word are like parallel universes.

  8. This isn’t good for the Conservative Party-or for Parliamentary democracy.

  9. @ Allan Christie

    So, big game this Sunday!

    Now I thought you could only mean the upcoming hugely important Scunny vs Bradford promotion match but you seem to be talking about a minor but quite entertaining clash yesterday in Manchester? 1-1.

  10. Sorry for the missing text….. I’m using my amazon kindle

    #What the polls are showing for the Tories and what’s happening in the real Word are like parallel universes

  11. Another strong poll for the Tories. Their figures are very similar with all polling companies, with a range of only 42-45 across the companies’ latest polls. Labour have a range of 25-30, UKIP 6-13 (although the 6 is probably an outlier), LD 8-13. The Greens are 3 or 4 in all of them. An average of all latest polls put the LDs ahead of UKIP by 10.4 to 9.6 but I would round both those to 10 and call it a tie. The governing party ahead, with a lead in the high teens in mid-term is astonishing.

  12. BANTAMS

    Ha! Only one match in toon I’m afraid… but Scunny vs Bradford will be a beast of a match.

  13. @Jasper22 “Are we soon to see the Tories at 50%?”
    Almost certainly if UKIP shut up shop, either by design or default. A UKIP Mk2 would begin with lower support (quite a bit drawn from Don’t Knows’ and Won’t Votes’) and others might well ‘go home’ – surely mostly to the Tories?

    @Millie “Before anyone says it, I know he [Hammond] did some squirming first”
    And so might I, if I had to withdraw what I saw as a generally sensible and forward looking measure because of my silly oversight. But it seems the Tories have not been harmed by
    1. keeping to a manifesto promise at the cost of a lot of bad publicity, and delaying a needed financial change
    and 2. admitting the mistake quickly

  14. COLIN
    “This isn’t good for the Conservative Party-or for Parliamentary democracy”
    ________

    The polls can have the Tories on 55% and Labour on 20% but the fact remains that the Tories still only hold a parliamentary majority of 12. Or is it 13? 14?…I canny mind!

    However, if the Tories win the next UK election on the sort of numbers today’s poll is showing then it would look bad for democracy, not because of the Tories landslide, but the ineffectiveness of the main opposition party.

    It’s not a prediction..well not yet it ain’t but once the UK has actually left the EU for real and we see the terms of the negotiations then we might see a lot of the White van man lot leaving the Tories and heading back to Labour.

    Those who voted Brexit are giving TM their backing but once Brexit has happened they may say “Job done” and revert back to their natural habitats.

  15. And maybe not.

  16. @ Allan

    You must think the current SNP domination is bad for democracy as well?

  17. Are the detailed figures for this poll available anywhere?

  18. BANTAMS
    @ Allan
    “You must think the current SNP domination is bad for democracy as well?”
    __________

    The only situation I stated was bad for democracy was if the current polling VI was replicated at the next UK GE, it would only highlight the ineffectiveness of the main opposition party. It was COLIN who wrote…”“This isn’t good for the Conservative Party-or for Parliamentary democracy” and I was responding to his comment

    The situation is slightly different in Scotland…They use PR so a party polling 45% would almost certainly be running a minority government or one with the slimmest of majorities. However, you have to put into context the SNP’s dominance which has been built up in stages over the past 10 years to that of Labour’s almost absolute hegemony in Scotland for over 50 years… No one ever spoke about that been bad for democracy.

  19. Allan Christie

    I think you’re right that the country seems to be uniting behind Mrs May due to the upcoming Brexit talks. I sense this is all about Blighty vs. “Them over the channel” and less about day to day politics.
    Commentators always seem to mis understand the British public’s black and white view of important stuff – like Brexit – and always over hype the froth and nonsense of the daily news cycle , which tends to pass most ordinary folk by.

  20. I reckon the reappearance of George Osborne in the last few days made people think, “Thank goodness Mrs May sacked him”, and her popularity shot up again!

  21. Jasper for the next two years the conservatives will do well.The English press will be in full flow blaming the foreigners for not been reasonable in negotiations with the plucky stand alone Brits.Those 27 countries only thinking of themselves and forgetting what we did for them in the war.

  22. Jasper

    Well said. Every time there’s some sort of scandal or c*ck-up by one party or another we all wait with bated breath to see whether the polls have moved, and almost invariably they haven’t!

  23. JASPER..

    Totally agree with your post… I’m not taking anything away from the Tories and clearly, there are day to day policy areas that do resonate with voters positively but when you read through the data on all the main KPI’s then the Tories national VI dwarfs quite a lot of the public’s perception or VI when asked about specific areas of performance and policy.

  24. There’s nothing surprising about these polls IMO when the main opposition party has selected one of their most left-wing MPs as leader.

  25. Allan hard not to argue that the Conservatives are doing a marvellous day job.On the prisons NHS Schools local councils social care debt and deficit police .

  26. According to the G, 18-24 year olds in this poll split 41% vs 29% for the Conservatives.

    This is start of Generation Z coming up to vote, who are very cautious and conservative, unlike the Millenials (who became adults after the century turned).

    Generation Z are defined as being too young to remember pre-9/11/ toddlers when 9/11 happened, so they are mainly 18 – 24, and the war on terror has been going on their entire childhood.

  27. @Jasper22

    Yes, agree with you. Which is why I thought it was fanciful when a section of posters on here said Brexit would not feature much after a while and people would return to their day to day concerns.

    It’s clearly a truly extraordinary event, far greater than entering the EEC, and the public knows it. Not surprising when every newspaper and current affair program (and bulletin board!) is obsessed with it.

  28. Quite an interesting graph by Britain elects…
    They show the polling average and average lead for the UK parties since 2015 and up until now…

    Britain Elects? @britainelects 18m18 minutes ago
    More
    Our polling average update:

    Conservatives lead Labour by 15pts, at 41.9 to 27.0.

    1pt gap between UKIP (11.2) and Lib Dems (10.1).

    Two points…1.. The average lead the Tories have over Labour since 2015 is actually bigger than the Lib/Dem VI.

    2… The Lib/Dem average polling VI 10.1% is only around 2.7% up from their 2015 election result. I wouldn’t even get out of my bed for that. ;-)

    https://twitter.com/britainelects

  29. DEZ
    “Allan hard not to argue that the Conservatives are doing a marvellous day job.On the prisons NHS Schools local councils social care debt and deficit police ”
    __________

    It’s that Brexit thing again..covering a multitude of sins. ;-)

  30. @Sea Change

    I think you are right – the public know that Brexit is a big deal. They are concerned and they await the outcome with interest.

    But many are already very bored with it. Tired of Brexit being the context for everything, and befuddled by the distinctions between hard and soft Brexit.

    I am sure that part of TM’s popularity is that she has been unfussy and straightforward. Most people want her to get on with it, and do her best.

  31. @Jasper

    “Are we soon to see the Tories at 50%?
    What strange times these are….”

    ——–

    They are, but they can always get stranger. Don’t forget Labour hit 45% in the last parliament…

  32. Allan Christie,

    “No one ever spoke about that been bad for democracy.”

    I think you’ll find we did (SNP) almost constantly!!!!

    Peter.

  33. The poll seems to show no substantive change other than some within m.o.e as far as I can see. It’s always tempting to see the impacts of our betes noire when polls move marginally in the way we approve ( the SNP and George Osborne seem to be today’s pick) but is there anything here really in the headline VI than the continuation of the Tories’ large lead in GB polls?

  34. @Carfrew “Labour hit 45% in the last parliament…”
    45% for the Opposition probably means they are holding the Government to account.
    45-50+% for the Government probably means they are not.

  35. @Colin,

    I agree. Despite being strongly pro conservative and free market, you do need a reasonably strong opposition in a parliamentary democracy. Not so strong as to block things, but strong enough to be able to hold the Govt to some account. Labour are just nowhere near. It’s like the Blair years in reverse. Ironically Mr Blair is talking some sense now, but Iraq knackered his credibility so nobody is listening. If it wasn’t for Iraq I do think he would be a pretty strong voice.

    and by the way, where is this progressive liberal majority that so many people talk about such as Sturgeon/Salmond? By my reckoning you have right of centre parties on 55%!

    rich

  36. Rich Blair main opposition was the press even between 97 to 01 they were timid in power.The conservatives and May have no real opposition from the press but the NICs reverse was a worry if the going does get tough and difficult decisions have to be taken for the good of the country.

  37. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    “I think you’ll find we did (SNP) almost constantly!!!”
    _________

    Ok, I stand corrected but I was thinking from a Tory and Labour perspective.
    ………………

    I know this isn’t a Tartan thread but it sort of fits in with what’s happening in England and only highlights the problems Labour is facing north and south.

    Wings Over Scotland? @WingsScotland 22m22 minutes ago
    More
    WORKING-CLASS people in SCOTLAND are now more likely to vote Tory than Labour.

  38. @DAVE

    “45% for the Opposition probably means they are holding the Government to account.
    45-50+% for the Government probably means they are not.”

    ——–

    It might mean that. Or it might mean the press were giving the Govt. a hard time because of Levenson and once Govt. backtracked on that press moved onto have a go at Miliband, Immigration etc… With polling following suit…

  39. bad for democracy

    There is a land far far far to the North ruled by a diminutive woman. she has the support of nearly 50% of her electorate. I have not read one single post saying that is bad for democracy, but it is, apparently, but only if it is the tories in westminster.
    Posters say that in the real world there is no way the tories ought to be on 45%. They must be on a different planet. They shout chaos and point to the budget, But was it really chaotic?is that how it has really been received?As to the NHS the electorate knows that whatever party is in power there will never be enough money and there will always be a crisis. It is,IMHO, also immune to the annual BBC/SKY NHS panic week always conveniently held at the time of greatest pressure in the first 2 weeks of the year.

    Brexit is the only game in town.The secret of that will be that the EC will have to convince the EC Parliament that it has really stuffed the Uk and the UK will have to pretend it has got one over on the EU (or the wiser pretence that it has been so stuffed) meanwhile both sides can make the real game the maintenance of trade to our mutual benefit

  40. @S Thomas,

    My mum is always saying this, if and when Scotland goes, it’s a dictatorship up there. Terrible for democracy.

    Rich

  41. @Candy

    that Tory lead amongst young people doesn’t take into account the DKs (or a small sample). There are a lot of DKs, especially amongst people who voted Lib Dem and, interestingly, graduates.

    Also, all ‘Generation Whatever’ generalisations are complete garbage.

  42. What’s bad for democracy is not so much the high figure for the governing party, but the seeming immutability of that high figure.

    One expects a bit of an ebb and flow in the government’s support, as they do well or badly on the ongoing issues that matter to people (health, crime etc).

    What seemed to happen in Scotland, and now may be happening in the rest of the UK, is that constitutional and party political issues have trumped governance issues, making the party in charge look like it can pretty much do what it likes without fear of challenge.

    I am not especially worried yet. There is a good chance that the SNP will gamble it all on a risky bet, and I remain of the view that Corbyn will go by the end of next year and Labour will resume something closer to normal service under someone else (hopefully a centrist and a woman).

  43. Note that ‘worried’ is the most common emotion expressed at the triggering of Article 50, by some way.

    Tory Remainers are pretty concerned. In a lot of ways other than VI, they look like other Remainers. We may need to keep an eye on that group.

  44. S THOMAS & RICH

    I take it you both are into selective reading? Try reading the comments again. For the second time, it was COLIN who wrote “This isn’t good for the Conservative Party-or for Parliamentary democracy”

    I responded by saying “What’s bad for democracy is an ineffective opposition party”

    As for the rest of your comment, well that’s for others to judge.

  45. AC

    Thank you for the name check but i dont think i mentioned you. If i may say so you seem to be travelling around a lot which seems to be affecting the quality of your posts. They have become a little …well… hysterical of late. I preferred your earlier contributions.

    Of Course it could be that the wee Bampot has stirred your blood to a nationalistic frenzy an you cant help yourself

  46. @Chris Riley

    Don’t knows don’t vote. And that is across the board – you are clutching at straws if you believe that the don’t knows will come to Lab’s rescue.

    As for the generational thing – each generation experiences different conditions as they come of age, which in turn influences their politics. So an 18-year-old in the Great Depression would have reacted to the world differently from an 18-year-old in the 1960s for example.

    There is actually research to show that Gen Z is the most conservative generation yet:

    http://www.marcomm.news/gen-z-is-the-most-conservative-generation-since-those-born-before-1945/

  47. @Candy

    “Don’t knows don’t vote”

    Not so.

    Some “don’t know” responders may well end up not voting, but some others are simply still making up their minds. For first time voters, we just don’t know where they’ll land, but some (not all) will end up voting. For older voters, in times of substantial change, “don’t know” could be an indicator that they are rethinking their old voting habits. They could return home, they may choose to sit out the next election, or they may end up switching parties.

    They are not a monolithic bloc that all behave in the same way.

  48. And who says that the SNP dominating Scottish politics, as it currently does, is good for democracy? The problem is that, at present, there simply is no alternative. Kez is not making any headway. The Tories under Ruth Davidson will gain some more support but not, I think enough to threaten the SNP’s overall position. The Greens, whilst a force in Parliament, are nowhere in the local councils. The LDs are still not making a convincing case. UKIP, of course, never was an important player in Scotland.

    The fact is that, whichever party you support, a functioning democracy needs viable alternatives to be offered to the electorate. Scotland, at present, has no coherent alternative on offer which can appeal across the spectrum to garner the necessary support.

    Of course, there are have been periods, such as in the 1980s and again from 1997 to 2010, when we discover that the ground has shifted and those who choose the right spot remain in power as the opposition finds itself ripped apart. In some ways, the present SNP hegemony is similar to Thatcher’s and Blair’s hegemonic periods in the past – with the accompanying disbelief on the part of those who cannot understand what is happening. To their supporters, whether Thatcher, Blair or Sturgeon, the way forward is obvious. To those who wish these leaders had never been born their control of power is a source of intense anger and resentment.

    The difference between the 1980s, when Thatcher ruled supreme (except, of course, in Northern Ireland), and the present day, when May finds herself having to deal with pesky upstarts, is that at least today Scotland has a voice – whether that be Nicola or Ruth. The really noticeable thing, of course, is how the English, particularly those in the south, don’t like anyone else to speak, other than themselves. Scots, like Victorian children, should be seen (if absolutely necessary), but never heard!

  49. @John B

    I hear this kind of comment a lot and I never quite understand what people are getting at.

    Can you outline for me what you mean by “The really noticeable thing, of course, is how the English, particularly those in the south, don’t like anyone else to speak, other than themselves”?

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