There were a couple of Scottish independence polls in the week, but both of these that had fieldwork that actually pre-dated Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a second referendum. The Sunday Times today have the first Scottish poll carried out after Sturgeon’s speech, conducted by Panelbase between Monday and Friday.

Voting intention in a second referendum stands at YES 44%, NO 56%, similar to that in the YouGov poll in the week. As I said then, there are conflicting pictures from different pollsters. YouGov and Panelbase are both showing support for independence at a very similar level to the 2014 referendum, the most recent BMG and MORI polls have shown a narrowing of the NO lead.

Scotland also remains split over whether or not to have a second referendum. About half want a referendum in the next few years (32% while Brexit negotiations are ongoing, 18% after the end of negoiations), 51% do not want a referendum in the next few years.

Westminster voting intentions in Scotland stand at SNP 47%, CON 28%, LAB 14%, LDEM 4%, UKIP 3%.


171 Responses to “Panelbase poll on Scottish Independence – YES 44, NO 56”

1 2 3 4
  1. There are some very big gambles being played in Scotland. By no means certain that a Brexit inspired second referendum will bring independence, and if it doesn’t. the SNP risks becoming a busted flush.

    Also notable here is the utterly dire Labour rating. Again, the defence from the dreamers is that Labour’s problems in Scotland started well before Corbyn, which is absolutely true, but Corbyn was sold in part as Labour’ answer to places like Scotland. In fact, he is as unpopular here (more so, according to some polls) than in England.

    It’s another promise undelivered, by the man who you wouldn’t trust to deliver a pizza, according to the rather funny SNP line.

  2. It is noticeable that the percentage in favour of a new referendum has gone up, but support for a “yes” vote has gone down (assuming that some recent polls were not complete outliers).

    I suspect that support for a referendum does not necessarily follow support for independence. Some “no” voters may have decided that it is best to have the fight, but if I were a “yes” voter I would not want the vote now. (But then I am a Leave voter, and thought Farage was mad to press for a referendum he couldn’t possibly win!!)

  3. Where is our own Alistair Campbell (oldnat) to put a spin on this poll?!

    Seriously, why would you as a party criticise Brexit and the concept of a referendum for Brexit and alienating large swathes of the country (arguably fairly so), but then be happy to pursue a course that could easily disenfranchise 49.9% of your populace? Something doesn’t work with the argument.

    I’ll say it again, despite voting leave, and still agreeing with that position, I am coming round to the view that constitutional change should have a higher threshold bar set given the implications and aftermath. Tory right, Farage, Sturgeon, Erdogan are all very similar to me. Wanting huge constitutional change for political reasons and happy to use a +1 voting majority process regardless of the division it will course.

  4. Shocking that Labour support is half of that of the Tories in Scotland !

    When you read the papers today that Momentum and Unite unions Len McCluskey are trying to cement a hard left future for Labour, you do wonder whether the Tories might exceed the 1979 to 1997 period in office.

    Labour might have recruited many young supporters attracted by Corbyn as a grandfather figure, but when they are not maintaining enough heartland areas across the UK, the next election could prove a disaster for them. There are rumours that many Tories want a general election this Summer and if they did win a House of Commons vote for this, the Tories would go on to win a landslide.

  5. @R Huckle:

    Factor in House of Lords delaying repeal of Fixed Term Parliaments Act by a year, then legal challenges spinning things out by another six months at least…

    It means spending 18 months going down a particular battle, at the end of which May might not want to call an election as things have changed.

    But shocking for Labour and LibDems. In ordinary circumstances, 28% for the Tories would be a very, very good show. But 47% for the SNP would see them struggle to gain much for it. Depending how the votes lie, they could go up half a dozen or be wiped out along with the rest.

  6. Grandfather figure?
    Amongst people I know, including two who joined Labour because of Jeremy Corbyn, it’s his politics and a desire to shape an economy less cruel and distorted that we have now.
    I am very happy Labour is trying to offer an alternative to the current path.
    Pass the Worther’s.

  7. I really do think polls like this give the l!e to the pro Corbyn camp.

    As I said on the last thread, clearly we can’t blame Corbyn for losing Scotland – that’s a given. But one of the major selling points of the Corbyn campaigns, particularly in 2015, was the claim that he could recover the lost ground in Scotland that New Labour has vacated. Under his tenure, Labour have gone backwards instead, and he has repeatedly demonstrated a capacity for misunderstanding devolved politics that would qualify him for a top seat in the Tory party.

    It is, without question, a case of failure all round for Corbyn’s leadership, and no amount of blame deflection can hide that simple fact.

  8. Worther’s Alec?

    SO failure all round except elected twice by the members.
    I suggest people vexed by the Lab party who have their cross-hairs on JC are missing the point entirely.

  9. This poll is really bad for scottish Independence.It seems to tell NS that not only to more than half not want to have a referendum but if you hold one we will vote against it.
    It may be that however many new greivances NS seeks to add to the pile there might be a law of diminishing returns.There is a danger that in trying to appear in control she is merely demonstrating her lack of real power.

    1. She demands that scotland be listened to by which she means that The UK stays in the single Market. Lady May knows this is unrealistic and ignores NS;
    2. NS then says well being as you have ignored me i will seek to call a referendum in 18/19; Lady May backed by Opinion pols as to desire for a referendum and outcome says no as to timing and refuses even to negotiate;
    3 NS then says she wants to negotiate on timetable but by now no one is listening let alone TM. and NS looks to the polls for the greivance surge.It fails to arrive.
    4. Next steps for NS? whip up nationalistic fervour on the back of Parliament vote.Is it going to change the view of TM? Doubt it. On past form she will double up and indicate that she will hold a catalonia style indicative referendum at the dates stated;
    5. If she does this it will be subject to legal challenge and the other parties might refuse to participate robbing it of all validity; if she does not she runs the risk of looking irrelevant
    6. If only NS had played it more cautiously from the outset.

  10. @MarkW – “SO failure all round except elected twice by the members.”

    Yes, exactly. You’ve got it in one. Labour members who voted for Corbyn are destroying what little chance Labour have got.

    While doing this, they collectively refuse to take responsibility for the disaster they have visited on the party, choosing instead to blame everyone and everything except themselves.

  11. sorry
    7. Might it be that NS sitting 600 miles away from London surrounded by courtiers is getting the westminster mood wrong. I noted that in his speech to the conference the astute leader of the sNP in parliament did not support the timing point and confined himself to saying there must be a referendum but not when. perhaps fresh leadership is required.

  12. @RICHO “I’ll say it again, despite voting leave, and still agreeing with that position, I am coming round to the view that constitutional change should have a higher threshold bar set given the implications and aftermath. Tory right, Farage, Sturgeon, Erdogan are all very similar to me. Wanting huge constitutional change for political reasons and happy to use a +1 voting majority process regardless of the division it will course.”

    I agree with you entirely. There should be a change so constitutional changes are set at a higher bar. The greatest constitutional change since 1707 happened in 1972 when the European Communities Bill was passed the Commons by 5 votes! And no prior supporting public vote either.

    I do believe there will need to be a new constitutional settlement between the 4 nations, passed by a Referendum of at least 60% which sets out future Constitutional Referendums and their place in law besides Parliament.

    I do not believe the House Of Commons should by able to take huge constitutional decisions driven by a particular party majority elected often with as little as 35% of the vote at a GE without the agreement of the People.

  13. Good afternoon all from a mild and dry rural Hampshire.

    On the independence VI…As I said a few weeks ago, many Scots will be holding their cards close to their chests and waiting to see what happens over Brexit. The Yes side only have to gain 6% from their result back in 2014 to get over the winning line. Last time around they were starting from around 28%.

    I predict this time around Scots will back independence by a margin of 56% to 44% and turnout will also be up.

    On Scottish Westminster polling it’s another shocker for Labour and the extremely small parties.

    According to the Scotland votes site the following composition of Scottish MP’s are as follows.

    SNP…54 (-2)
    Tory…4 (up3)
    Labour..0 (-1)
    Others 1 (-)

    Note..According to the Scotland votes website, Labour would have no sitting MP’s in Scotland. That just shows you how much politics North of the border has changed.

  14. @ Allan

    If dementia hasn’t set in in the intervening years, I’ll try to remember to remind you of your prediction after the next referendum.

  15. S THOMAS

    Quite a few errors in your post but I’m not wanting to get into a long and tedious debate on the issue of independence …However, I did manage to catch Prime ministers questions on the Iplayer.

    TM reminded the house that the SNP were a minority government.What she didn’t explain to the house was that the Scottish parliament uses a different electoral system to the one that saw her party win a majority despite 64% of the Britsh public rejecting her party and that the SNP polled more votes in Scotland at the Scottish election than her party did for the UK election.

    That is the sort of debate the Yes side in Scotland should be putting at the forefront of any independence campaign.

  16. OLDNAT

    When i referred to this poll on the previous thread my comment about it not being very good for the SNP was in relation to the 56^% against leaving the EU not the 47 % support. Sorry should have been clearer.

    S THOMAS

    Hard to disagree with most of your last post, I do think that the First Minister has backed herself into a corner.

  17. @Bantams

    Ha, I agree! I think it will be incredibly hard for the SNP to win a referendum which has them outside of the UK market and the EU market. Especially with a budget deficit of 9.5% and oil looking like it will be around $50 for the foreseeable future considering the market-changing American fracking industry.

  18. @Alec “Yes, exactly. You’ve got it in one. Labour members who voted for Corbyn are destroying what little chance Labour have got.
    While doing this, they collectively refuse to take responsibility for the disaster they have visited on the party, choosing instead to blame everyone and everything except themselves.”

    But he’s the messiah Alec!

  19. BANTAMS
    @ Allan
    If dementia hasn’t set in in the intervening years, I’ll try to remember to remind you of your prediction after the next referendum
    __________

    I’m sure you will remind me of my prediction. And speaking of reminders…I predicted the last indy vote right on the nose. I predicted Trump would win, predicted Brexit would win on dozens of occasions on UKPR, predicted the SNP’s seat total at the last Scottish election (1 seat out) predicted the SNP’s seat total at the last Westminster election (was spot on), also I said the Tories would be the largest party by quite a margin in 2015, although I did fall short of predicting their majority..That prediction goes to The Other Howard.

    And finally…I wasn’t that far off with my prediction in the recent Westminster by-elections.

    In short….I have quite good form on political prediction and the secret is to think like a voter and don’t over complicate matters and over engineer your thought process.

  20. ALEC
    “There are some very big gambles being played in Scotland. By no means certain that a Brexit inspired second referendum will bring independence, and if it doesn’t. the SNP risks becoming a busted flush”
    __________

    I’m not so sure…I actually think the SNP risk becoming a busted flush should Scots vote for independence.

    UKIP’s ultimate goal was to get the UK out of the EU..They have now achieved that goal and now the party looks like a busted flush in the latest UK polls.

  21. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    @”…I actually think the SNP risk becoming a busted flush should Scots vote for independence.”

    This is the most intriguing scenario of all.

    Who gains?

    Is that smile on Ruth Davidson’s face as she looks into the future, getting bigger?

    Is the ghost of Thatcher laid to rest ?

  22. COLIN

    In Alex Salmond’s speech at the last SNP conference before the independence vote, he said…”Vote for independence and reclaim your Labour party”

    Fast forward to the present day..Labour have all but disappeared in Scotland since Salmond’s 2014 speech and no one could have (not even me) predicted just how far Labour have fallen behind the Tories in Scotland.

    In a Scottish parliament post-independence, regardless of what electoral system it uses, in the short term, the SNP would probably be still the largest party but I suggest that somewhere down the not too distant future the Scottish Tories would become a significant force in a post indy Scottish parliament…but this does come at a price though….the word “Unionist” would be dropped from their title making the party more palatable north of the border. ;-)

  23. “But he is the Messiah ” He is a very naughty boy he caused Brexit Trump the threat of Scottish Independence,the end of the Labour party,

  24. ALLAN

    Thanks

    Actually I misread your post when I responded-I thought you had written :- “I actually think the SNP risk becoming a busted flush should Scots vote against independence.”

    And it was that scenario I had in mind as a problem for SNP & an opportunity for Cons in Scotland.

    ….so between us it seems that the SNP are finished whatever the result of IndyRef2 :-)

  25. AC

    what are your lottery number predictions :-)

  26. COLIN

    If the Yes side loses another referendum then as long as Scotland is part of the Union I don’t really see another alternative to the SNP. The good thing the SNP have going for them is that they have proven to be competent in government and voters may wish to stick with them despite another loss on the constitutional issue.

    However, if the Tories or Labour this time around offer something approaching a federal structure and deliver on it should Scots reject independence then who knows what will become of the SNP’s fortunes?
    …..
    S THOMAS…

    Unfortuanlty I don’t play the lottery. ;-)

  27. Based on the Holyrood election results we would most likely be looking at around 7 constituencies for the Conservatives on the current boundaries and somewhere between 8-10 constituencies on the new boundaries depending on what the final alterations on them are from the Boundary Commission.

  28. I think it is only natural that the Conservative vote is increasing in Scotland – the SNP offer a centre left platform therefore Labour has nothing to offer any more unless you want hard left which is not what SLAB stand for. The Conservatives in Scotland to my mind have an agenda which is for Scotland and they will always tend to the centre. I have a lot of family in Scotland and they keep me informed – they are Tory voting from the NE. RD is very articulate and is capable of taking on NS and she has totally changed the image of the Party. The May elections will be interesting – although muddled – the SNP will continue snapping up Labour votes and seats in places like Glasgow – the Tories should make gains but I have to admit I find the Scottish voting system hard to predict against but am looking forward to it as I do all elections.

  29. Quite a pertinent analysis here – https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2017/mar/19/brexit-britain-talking-trade-deal-eu-wrong-talking-point

    Elliot seems to have talked a good deal of sense throughout the Brexit process, being someone who thinks being in the EU isn’t perfect and being out isn’t necessarily a disaster. It gives him a slightly less impassioned position and enables him to argue the pros and cons rather effectively.

    This article is no exception. It hints at the possibility that the critical stumbling blocks may come from the Brexit purists who insist on no influence from Brussels. If this is placed at the forefront on negotiations, along with everything else already placed at the forefront of negotiations, then it looks possible that any deal will unravel.

    But if we are prepared to accept that we need to work to agreed EU standards across a wide area of cross border matters, then a good free trade deal seems rather likely.

    A critical issue is going to be enforcement. The ECJ is the arbiter of internal treaty matters in the EU, which includes the application of regulations. May has insisted we will be free of the ECJ. But if we are to agree common standards as part of a free trade deal, the EU will need to have assurance that the mechanisms to uphold these are robust, with the ECJ being the obvious choice,

  30. ALLAN

    @”The good thing the SNP have going for them is that they have proven to be competent in government”

    Really?

  31. @Colin – “Really?”

    From polling evidence, we would have at least to agree that this is how they have been perceived in the main.

    I also would suggest that there is some truth in this, in that they have addressed priorities that many Scots voters like, and done so in a way that has distinguished them from the UK wide parties.

    My strong suspicion is that they have played the Westminster card very well indeed as well, which greatly helps in these perceptions. On many independent metrics, their performance hasn’t been so good (although in key areas like the NHS, it looks a fair bit better than in England) but the SNP has effectively blamed Westminster for any failings, while taking credit for the good stuff.

  32. COLIN

    Well, they have won two elections by a landslide, polling far higher than any other party across the UK and in most policy areas the SNP are outperforming the Tories.

    I’m only basing my hypothesis by comparing the Scottish government’s performance with that of the UK government.

  33. A lot of the SNP’s reputation for competance is arguably due to (a) not doing much and (b) kicking a lot of cans down the road. For example, they backed down on local government taxation and now don’t talk about it anymore, as far as I know. This has kept a large variety of voters in Scotland reasonably happy, though few seem to be ecstatic about the SNP’s governance.

    The problem now is that the end of the road has been reached, and there’s a big pile of those cans to be faced: higher council tax bills, an education system in relative decline, an overcentralised government etc.

    I think that the SNP can deal with these problems, but they will require tough choices. It would be tempting for an SNP leader to have something that would draw voters’ attentions away from these choices, much as the Tories at Westminster have been able to make plenty of foulups since Brexit without much difficulty…

  34. NTY UK

    “Based on the Holyrood election results we would most likely be looking at around 7 constituencies for the Conservatives on the current boundaries and somewhere between 8-10 constituencies on the new boundaries depending on what the final alterations on them are from the Boundary Commission”
    _________

    I’m confused? The Tories only polled 22% at the last Scottish election so how does that translate into them winning 8-10 constituencies based on the new boundaries?

    I think some peeps need to wake up here….The gulf between the SNP and the Tories in Scotland is far greater than that of the UK Tories and Labour.

    The Scottish Tories are the smallest opposition party in the history of the Scottish parliament. They only polled 0.6% more votes than Labour. They only have one MP in Scotland and are proababbly about to be dumped out of power from several Scottish councils now that their local election partnets (Labour) look to be heading into oblivian.

    I’m not taking anything away from the Scottish Tories and I’ve always stuck up for them as an effective an credible opposition with quite a compitent leader. The party are polling roughly in line with what the Labour party are polling in the UK polls yet we are always saying Labour are polling very poorley and no where near winning elections. Just some gentle perspective for us peeps south of the border.

  35. There are several posters from England here thinking the SNP have governed Scotland competently.

    I would argue that cleverly is a better description than competently. This is because they have strongly favoured the Central Belt at the expense of the peripheral parts of Scotland. This has won or satisfied former Labour areas, but has angered other less-industrial regions. So in the NE the Tories have gained in popularity, taking in LibDem supporters also angered by SNP centralisation.

    I predict that in the May elections SNP will suffer appreciable loss of seats.

    It would be ironic and puzzling to many outwith Scotland for the SNP vote to fall while support for independence rises. That is my prediction.

  36. @NTY UK, @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    The latest Panelbase poll give the Tories 28% in Scotland, enough for about 5 seats on a uniform swing.

  37. ALEC & BILL PATRICK

    I would say you’re both pretty close to the mark with your analysis.The SNP will no doubt face some tough decisions in the not too distant future now that some more tax powers and welfare benefits have been devolved and this will weaken their blame it on Westminster mantra somewhat. Only time will tell but for now from what I can gather the SNP are polling over 50% for Holyrood in the latest poll.

  38. NEILVW

    Thanks for that..I put the same figures into the Scotland votes website and it gave the Tories 4 (up3) but 5 wouldn’t be unreasonable. However, I’m still confused with the other posters comment and I’m not sure where he is getting his figures from..Or she… I can’t tell.

  39. There’s also the Opinium UK wide poll for the Observer

    http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-14th-march-2017/

    UK poll, so the crossbreaks for the devolved nations are very wee, of course

    VI (Eng) Con 43% : Lab 29% : UKIP 14% : LD 9%
    VI (Sco) SNP 53% : Con 27% : Lab 13% : LD 4% : UKIP 2%

    Also Opinium’s usual set of leader approval ratings – including Sturgeon (by Party VI)

    Approve : Disapprove : Party
    94% : 2% : SNP
    46% : 25% : LD
    46% : 28% : Green
    38% : 31% : Lab
    24% : 41% : Plaid
    11% : 69% : Con
    10% : 69% : UKIP
    9% : 59% : Other (mainly NI, I suspect)

    And a whole lot of constitutional “what if” and “would you prefer” questions, like

    “I would prefer Scotland to vote ‘Yes’ for independence” Eng 47% : Sco 47%
    “I would prefer Scotland to vote ‘No’ for independence” Eng 14% : Sco 44%
    “No preference” Eng 28% : Sco 4%

  40. @ToH

    I think it’s possible events might have backed Nicola into a corner. Because of the possibility of two trends working against her. Firstly, the background phenomenon that oil prices are staying fairly low despite OPEC trying to take at least some action, with shale etc. kicking in again now and renewables etc. getting cheaper over the longer term. The longer the oil price stays low, the harder it is to argue it’ll return to much higher prices and stay there.

    Secondly, the increasing Euroscepticism in Scotland. If that trend continues it can make it harder to sell Independence since will not be able to sell being in the Single Market as an alternative, never mind being in the EU. The economics of being both outside EU and UK markets isn’t gonna be an easy sell. You can see the effect this has had on the likes of oldnat as he tries to come to terms with it all…

  41. @Bill P

    “I think that the SNP can deal with these problems, but they will require tough choices.”

    ——–

    Indeed, and there’s potentially another reason for the reticence to use their powers: it highlights that they actually HAVE these powers, and hence undermines the idea that power is almost totally concentrated at Westminster, an oft-sold plank of the Indypeeps argument.

  42. There’s a margin of error of about 10% on that subsample, even ignoring the problems with weighting etc.

    The crossbreak consistent with the very broad picture from polling in Scotland, but in itself it’s not significantly more informative than the Welsh crossbreak.

    Unless the SNP misjudged Scottish opinion (and SURELY they did plenty of private polling ahead of this move?!) I suspect that they’re setting things up for a “sensible compromise” of a referendum in about October 2019. This way, both governments look like they’re getting something: a referendum for one, the exact timing for the other.

    On the other hand, my sense is that the unionist cause has been somewhat more galvanised by indyref 2 thus far than the nationalist cause, and the UK government seems to have gone for the conscious ambiguity of “Now is not the time”, which puts them on the side of the majority in Scotland without actually committing themselves to a referendum.

    I have no idea how this will go from here, but I think that there have already been a few surprises for me!

  43. Carfrew,

    You might be right, but that sounds a little like overthinking things. I suppose the way to tell would be to have some polling on questions like “Do you think that Holyrood has control over policy area X?” to test the Scottish people’s knowledge of how devolution works now.

  44. Carfrew

    ” the effect this has had on the likes of oldnat ” – Silly comment.

    If you look at the ScotCen report, you would see that the rise in Euroscepticism has been mainly among committed No voters.

    While that isn’t surprising in itself, it doesn’t suggest that the rise of Euroscepticism will affect the votes of others.

    What will be critical with regard to Single Market/EU membership in ScotRef will be the outcome of the Brexit negotiations.

    As for oil – Hah! Chinese scientists have developed graphene panels which will generate energy from sun or rain! Scotland will be awash with cheap energy, as well as with water. :-)

  45. @Alec

    “Again, the defence from the dreamers is that Labour’s problems in Scotland started well before Corbyn, which is absolutely true…”

    ——–

    Being as I mentioned the fact that Scotlab issues started before Corbyn, earlier today in fact, I am bound to consider the possibility that you might be including me in the category marked ‘dreamers’.

    I mean, don’t get me wrong, I do like to dream, and dream of a world in which synths are cheap, storage is free, coffee is subsidised, we have barrages and Thorium and you don’t have to pay business rates just because you got some solar panels, and no one gets upset if I just happen to disagree with them, and no voting is required because MPs selected at random, and auto mod is enlightened.

    Not much to ask is it. But on this occasion I have to stress that I wasn’t actually defending Corbyn. I’m just pointing out that the Nulab alternative also has issues, so getting rid of Corbyn is a bit of a sideshow. It’s kinda priced in, and what’s interesting and of import is who replaces him and with what policies.

    This is also important because then we get to some info. to see how much of the problem might be due to Corbyn, and how much due to rebellions, media etc.

  46. Bill Patrick

    “I suspect that they’re setting things up for a “sensible compromise” of a referendum in about October 2019. This way, both governments look like they’re getting something: a referendum for one, the exact timing for the other.”

    I suspect you may be right. Allowing your opponent to save face is usually worthwhile.

  47. Oldnat,

    Exactly. In 2011, there was a clear widespread consensus that a referendum was needed. In 2017, I think that Sturgeon knows that she’s going to have to work very hard, and find the right tone between belligerence and meekness.

    If she’s too meek, then there might not be a referendum before the 2021 elections, and the SNP + Greens could fall below a majority at Holyrood.

    If she’s too belligerent, then she’s setting herself very firmly against a majority of Scottish people at a time when the SNP need to be emollient towards the >5% they need to convince.

    I think she’s actually playing it rather well right now.

  48. Found this collation of recent polling very useful:

    http://britainelects.com/2017/03/19/indyref-2-0/

  49. Bill Patrick

    There are also background factors, which are difficult to measure, but can be influential to one or both sides.

    In England, we haven’t seen much polling about their views on Scots indy for a wee while – which is why I posted that question on it from the Opinium poll. It’s not the Scots crossbreak which is interesting, but the English one.

    If (for whatever reason) 86% in England would like the Scots to go away, or don’t care if they do or not, then talking about “the Precious Union”, like Gollum, isn’t going to gain much enthusiastic support from voters there. The longer “their” PM talks about it, the more unenthusiastic they might become.

    In Scotland, I get the sense of a bit of “politics fatigue” – not just indyref, but the 2015 GE, 2016 Euroref, Trump, ongoing concerns over Brexit etc.

    Anecdotal, I know, but my daughter commented that her group of friends (all Yes supporting young-ish professionals, and one of the critical groups for ScotRef) were pleased when Sturgeon said that it wouldn’t happen for a year or two. I suspect that their emotional batteries might be more fully charged by Autumn 2019!

  50. @Allan Christie
    “64% of the Britsh public rejecting her party”
    But, as I think you well know, that is not how the system works.
    First, I assume you base that figure on the 36,9% of THOSE VOTING who voted Conservative.The turnout was 66%, so your figure should be only 24% of ELECTORATE, and an even smaller % of the British public, which includes others in large numbers (eg young people and foreign nationals of long standing).
    That said, on your basis 70% rejected Labour as a governing party, 87% rejected UKIP, 92% rejected the LibDems, 95% the SNP , 96% the Greens.
    Who then should be entitled to form a government?
    Fortunately we elect MPs from local constituencies to Parliament.
    We elected more Tories than others, so we have a Tory government with a clear majority. Under another voting system that might not be true, but as I posted earlier, under pure PR we should be likely to have a Tory+UKIP coalition with a wafer-thin majority. Who voted for that?
    Perhaps, to satisfy you, we should vote against a list of parties, giving 1 to the party we dislike least, say 10 to parties we think should have no part at all in forming a government and numbers between to those we don’t really care for but could put up with, the party with the smallest score averaged over all constituencies to form a government unopposed for 5 years? Manifesto promises to be kept, (which means implemented, not just contrary actions avoided) with the government subject to legal challenges in lieu of votes of no confidence. We could still elect MPs on a FPTP basis for each constituency, so that Bills could be discussed and even amended if the Government agreed the proposed amendments were improvements, bur a government could be certain to be able to give effect to its programme.
    (I’ll take my tongue out of my cheek if I post again)

1 2 3 4

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)