Nicola Sturgeon today announced she would seek a second Indyref. Some of the comments on this have suggested that there is widescale opposition to this from the Scottish public. This polling evidence is far less clear-cut. A variety of polls have asked a variety of questions about when or if there should be another referendum on Scottish independence. Some have given multiple options on whether there should be should be a second referendum, others have asked if there should be a referendum in a specifc timeframe, such as the next year, before the UK leaves the EU or (subtly but importantly different) before negotiations over Brexit are concluded.

As far as I can recall, there have been four polls so far this year asking about a second referendum:

  • A Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times in January asked when there should be a second referendum, giving options of during the Brexit negotiations (27%), after the negotiations (23%) or not in the next few years (51%). (tabs).
  • A Panelbase poll for Wings Over Scotland in February asked a very similar question, but with slightly different options. They split “not in the next few years” into not in the next twenty years and never, but found a similar total (25% and 24%). Rather that splitting the options for a more immediate referendum by whether negotiations were complete, they split it by whether Britain had actually left yet. 32% wanted a referendum before the UK leaves the EU, 19% a referendum after the UK leaves the EU. (tabs)
  • A BMG poll for the Herald at the end of January asked about a referendum “prior to Brexit negotiations being concluded between the UK and EU”. 38% of respondents said yes, 48% no. (tabs).
  • BMG repeated the question at the end of February and found virtually no change – 39% said yes, 49% said no (on what appears to be the same poll they asked an agree/disagree statement about whether people agreed with the statement “A referendum on Scottish independence should not be triggered until the UK & EU have completed their Brexit negotiations” – 51% agreed with this, 25% disagreed. I am generally wary about agree/disagree statements, which tend to produce answers skewed in the direction of the statement. I would put a lot more weight on the neutally worded version of the question) (tabs)

Bringing all these together, I can only assume those saying Scotland is opposed to a second referendum are looking at the BMG polls. These do indeed show broad public opposition to a second referendum, but both asked specifically about a referendum before Brexit negotiations were concluded. If you look at the two Panelbase polls, they showed only minority support for a second referendum during negotiations/before Britain leaves, but that a further group of Scots would support a referendum after the conclusion of negotiations/after Britain leaves.

Look at the Panelbase polls asking a broad question about a second referendum, rather than those asking about a specific timeframe, and the split looks pretty even. About half of Scottish adults want a referendum in the next few years, either before or after Brexit; about half of Scottish adults don’t want a referendum in the next few years.


339 Responses to “Does Scotland want a second referendum?”

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  1. @RAF

    I discount YouGov polls, they predictably pop up with a poll that suits the establishment narrative when required & since the GE where YouGov polls drove the hung parliament narrative. A Survation poll puts Yes on 47% & social attitudes survey puts support for independence at 46% Devolution 42% & rule by WM 8%. This is first time independence has beat devolution & independence support is double its 2012 level

  2. S Thomas
    “The wee Bampot is doing a good impression of the grand old duke of york.
    having used membership of the EU as the excuse for a referendum she is now, apparently, saying that Scotland does not want to be in it anyway.Then why has the referendum been broached?”

    Did you read the study of polling in Scotland about independence posted on the last page? Its interesting.

    It suggests that Scots preferred option is real devo max, but since no one is willing to give them that then they are opting for independence. Its beyond the polling questions, but maybe they would be happy with a properly federal solution with real veto powers over things such as Brexit. The sort of arrangement which the EU does offer.

    It suggests that notwithstanding the Brexit referendum result, support for the EU has been falling in Scotland, but this might be taken as more support for the option of total independence, from either Uk or EU. Though as I said, the most popular option is very loose control under an umbrella state.

    In many ways it isnt the brexit result which is offensive, but that it is being imposed on Scotland.

  3. @Couper

    I find it amusing that you essentially accuse YouGov of corrupt practice, on the blog of one of their senior employees….

  4. “Excludes 16-17 year olds, and is not consistent with any other recent Indy2 polls.”

    16 & 17 year olds make up less than 3.3% of the electorate nationally, and certainly something further under 3.3% of actual voters. Approx 2.8% in Scotland in 2014.
    2014 Ashcroft had them at 71% Yes, back then.

    So broadly assume a net +1-2% for Yes (+2% seems the safer end given ‘Muh Brexit’ is happening)
    It’s worth noting their absence for all YouGov polls, but it requires a tweak rather than any dismissal.

  5. So because Couper & RAF don’t like Yougov we mustn’t put their poll on UKPR? Would you like me just to report all the pro Indy good news or are we going to be balanced here.

  6. Normally a fan of Prof Curtis but I think he has made an error in his interpretation of growing eurpscepticism in Scotland with the 67% figure quoted in the press.

    http://www.ssa.natcen.ac.uk/media/38910/ssa16-2fr8m-1ndyref-2-1ndyr8f-tw0-two.pdf

    On page 14/15 he states;

    “The proportion saying that Britain should leave the EU in response to this question increased between
    Scottish Social Attitudes 2015 and 2016 by eight points, to an all-time high of 25%, while the proportion saying that it should seek to reduce the EU’s powers remained at just over two in ve. As a result, two in three (67%) of people in Scotland could now be said to be sceptical about the EU.”

    However earlier on he puts in an important caveat by preceding the 2016 question with;

    “(Leaving aside the result of the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, what do you think Britain’s policy should be…)

    The result is that looking at the last three years the euro sceptic percentages are;

    Leave/Less Powers;
    2014; 17/36, 2015; 17/43, 2016; 25/42.

    As noted in the report their is a big jump in 2014 of those who think the EU should do less, by far the most popular option, but it has stabilised in the low 40’s.

    The big post Referendum change has been the jump in those saying the UK should leave. On the face of it this can be seen as a rise in euroscepticism, but if we remember the polls conducted since may there are a significant number of remain voters who when asked; “Should the Referendum result stand” say Yes.

    they voted to remain but none the less feel that Democracy should prevail and in effect accept the result even though they don’t like it.

    I tend to feel that, given the caveat at the start of the question it is these people who have increased the size of the “leave percentage, not because they don’t believe in the EU but because they believe that the Referendum result should be accepted.

    People may be asked to ay the result aside but as Anthony has often reminded us asking people to do it and them actually doing it are too different things.

    Looking at table 7 on page 16, the biggest jumps have been Independence supporters saying leave it as it is; from 18% to 27% and Union supporters saying we should Leave; 12% to 29%.

    again this for me is a fairly clear sign that Unionists believe the referendum should be binding and we have made a decision rather than they have suddenly become more eurosceptic.

    So while as I said ! really like what Prof Curtis does I think that what we are seeing isn’t what he has interpreted and that given that the increase in the Lead vote comes mainly from people who voted Leave and No in the Scottish Referendum it doesn’t particularly represent a worry for the Independence campaign.

    There a lots of other things for us to worry about, this just isn’t really one of them..

    Just to be clear for the record, I voted Remain but think the UK should Leave because that’s what people voted for, but as Scotland voted Remain, we should remain and that’s what Indyref2 is going to be about.

    Who decided what place Scotland has in the world and the direction in goes in; Scots alone or scots as less than 10% of the UK.

    Peter.

  7. @oldnat,

    Yes both me, not intentionally two accounts. I think you are being a bit unfair and aggressive in your responses given the clear similarities in criticism of referendums that could be easily applied to your support for independnace.

    I am not rabid leave, I just believed there were real issues that were not getting addressed and people and unemployment in the euro zone was playing second fiddle to political and federal union at all costs. That’s not right.

    One thing I have said, is that I am coming round to the view that Referendums are clearly not good ways to decide policy on constitution if it’s a +1 vote majority. We should be like many other countries who set the bar higher and require 2/3rd majority to change the constitution. Constitutions should not be the vanity play things of politicians be it Farage, Sturgeon, Erdogan etc.

  8. RICH, your post 14th 11:39, seems the police have been investigating Tory election fraud for a fair few months, of course if you have proof otherwise that there has been no fraud or that postal voting in inner city wards are far more serious and more likely to have happened, you really should take this evidence to the police.

    I’m more interested in how many seats it affects and if it turns out to be true and some how gave the Tory party a majority they did not deserve, well it means the referendum vote may not have happened and some Tories may well have squeaky bums as they may well end up in stir?

  9. “Tariffs are largely irrelevant.
    As the nobel prize winning international trade economist Paul Krugman states import tariffs are paid for by the importer in the grand scheme of things.
    So if the EU raises tariffs, they just tax themselves. Or the theory of free trade is bunkum. Either way favours the UK just going its own way.”

    ———

    It’s not that simple. If the tarriffs aren’t applied universally to all imports, then obviously importers may switch to the cheaper products. If some importers have cost advantages and there’s plenty competition they might absorb much of the tariff where their rivals can’t Then there’s import substitution where over the longer term local suppliers up production, or people switch to replacement products…

  10. “it is sad that people feel the need to try to demonise or belittle character rather than let the power of their reasoning be their strength”

    ———

    If their reasoning isn’t their strength though…

  11. Pete

    Plod will launch an investigation which should last well beyond the next election. All parties will be found to have done the same (hence lack of comment from libs and labour) and wrapped knuckles all round.

    Plod and electoral commission couldnt even deal with voting corruption in Bham.

  12. @S Thomas

    “having used membership of the EU as the excuse for a referendum she is now, apparently, saying that Scotland does not want to be in it anyway.Then why has the referendum been broached?”

    ———

    Yes, briefly I wondered why Oldnat was fixing on the Single Market thing, then taking into account Nicola had changed tack and was ditching the EU it became clear. She caused him issues with parsing the new reality, as we all saw…

  13. @Pete,

    In my view this will go nowhere. All parties have battle buses that go through several constituencies. It’s a well accepted form of campaigning. To single out the Tories and say that did too much specific campaigning seems odd and very hard to prove. Besides, even if we reran some by elections, the Tories are now 10 point further ahead. Storm in a teacup I bet.

  14. @Sam

    Oh sure, as I indicated, the oil industry will respond. My question was as to whether any oil industry response gets outpaced by renewables etc.

    It’s a question not simply of whether the oil industry can survive in the North Sea, but whether the price remains high enough for Scotland to not have such a deficit.

    And challenges remain. From the article…

    “Drilling in the North Sea has become less attractive for international oil companies due to high levels of tax, dwindling reserves, higher production costs and more lucrative opportunities emerging elsewhere. Companies such Royal Dutch Shell and BP are now turning more of their attention to emerging opportunities in the Arctic and Iraq as alternatives to the North Sea.

    Industry body Oil & Gas UK estimates that the North Sea will need £1 trillion of investment in order to recover all of the estimated 20bn barrels of reserves that remain untapped.”

  15. S THOMAS and RICH, again if you have proof of any wrong doing by any political party it is your duty to take it to the police, these are serious allegations and people could be looking at doing a stretch.

  16. As I understand it, it has always been the case that the leaders (and deputy leaders for Tories/Labour) have toured in battle buses and not apportioned their costs to the constituencies.

    As I understand it (but might be wrong) the Tories took that a step further by sending battle buses full of activists to target seats and omitting these costs on the basis that they were part of the national campaign.

    On the face of it there may be a case to answer, but it is a long way from there to a by-election.

    On a related note, I wonder if the costs of the 40/40 strategy were apportioned to those seats as well?

  17. The YouGov poll excluded 16-18 year-olds. It is not clear if it also excluded EU citizens. (About 70 responders were born outside the UK).

    The inclusion, or exclusion, of EU voters is likely to make a large difference, which is one valid reason for having indyref2 before Brexit actually happens. These people are directly affected, but had ni say in the Brexit referendum. They should, IMO, have a say – and if indyref2 is delayed, they are likely to be excluded.

  18. S THOMAS, I’d also say, saying ‘wrapped knuckles all around’ is not good enough. Are you saying parties should be allowed to break laws with no punishment, where as normal citizens could do say 6 months for stealing a bottle of water? It really is one rule for them and one rule for us.

  19. BFR, regarding by elections. Probably true in that by elections could be a long way off. But does make you wonder why the police had to go to the high court to get the Tory party to release key documents. If you’ve nothing to hide you’d release straight away.

  20. @ BigFatRon

    ‘As I understand it (but might be wrong) the Tories took that a step further by sending battle buses full of activists to target seats and omitting these costs on the basis that they were part of the national campaign.’

    That is also my understanding but in addition, the Tories paid for meals and hotel rooms for not only those grassroots activists but also over protracted periods of many weeks, for CCHQ officials like Theresa May’s right hand man, Timothy Edwards in Thurrock. Furthermore, Michael Crick suggested that the hotel bills were paid from the home address of a CCHQ employee rather than from their official bank accounts.

  21. SYZYGY, looking murkier and murkier for the Tory party then.

    Personally I doubt any MP had anything to do with it, but those around them must know something if indeed there’s anything to know. But with holding evidence never looks good.

    Also personally, (3 Labour MPs are being looked at) I don’t care which party is involved. If they broke the law then they have to face the consequences of their actions. You can’t spout on how you standing up for the little people and then expect to be treated differently than the little people.

    Of course there is also Farage to consider. He doesn’t strike me as the sort to let something like this go, he may well have lost the chance of a seat in the HofC over this. and we know how he likes easy money.

  22. Anybody wanting to watch a Minister’s credibility evaporating in real time might do well to watch David Davis falling apart under Select Committee scrutiny at the moment.

    He was once considered able. But it’s obvious that the job he has is far beyond him and he has begun to realise it.

  23. Guymonde

    I’ve long suspected that Political Compass included a bias. It’s an interesting idea to try and capture more information about people’s politics (I suspect 2 dimensions will not be nearly enough), I think the execution is poor.

    The decision to place the origin far to the left (and more liberal) than nearly every major democracy is strange, coupled with the fact that everyone’s scores seem to be much further to the left than the parties they affiliate with, I suspect that this might be a subtle attempt to get people to consider moving to a more left wing (and liberal) party.

    It might also be down to careless coding nobody has bothered to fix.

  24. Davem

    The rest of the Netherlands will be interesting too.

  25. Breaking News

    The Cof E has announced a U Turn on the NI increases.There will be no increases in NI in this parliament. The IFS won’t be pleased but I guess his back benchers will. The gap left in the tax take will be tackled in the Autumn budget.

  26. ides of march

    I wonder if Hammond relishes the role of Cesear?I wonder who played the role of Brutus?.That magical line from carry on cleo comes to mind

  27. The latest employment figures are out. Unemployment continues to fall but wage growth has slowed sharply.

    “The UK’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest since the summer of 1975, with a record number of people in work.

    But the jobs boom has also seen a record number of workers employed on zero-hours contracts in their main job.

    Workers on the controversial contracts increased by 101,000 in the last quarter of 2016 to 905,000 compared with the previous year.

    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said those on zero-hours contracts were more likely to be young, women, part-time or in full-time education.

    Other figures published on Wednesday showed that unemployment fell by 31,000 in the three months to January, to 1.58 million, the lowest for a decade, giving a jobless rate of 4.7%, the lowest since the summer of 1975.

    Almost 32 million people are now in work, a jump of 92,000 over the quarter and 315,000 compared with a year earlier.

    The number of people on the claimant count, including Jobseeker’s Allowance and those on Universal Credit required to seek work, fell by 11,300 last month to 734,700, the lowest since May 1975.

    Average earnings increased by 2.2% in the year to January, down by 0.4% on the previous month.

    David Freeman, senior statistician at the ONS, said: “With the unemployment rate last lower in summer 1975 and the employment rate still at a record high, the labour market remains robust.

    “But smaller wage increases and higher inflation mean the growth in real earnings has slowed sharply in recent months.”

    A record 4.8 million people are now self-employed, up by 49,000 on the quarter and 148,000 over the past year, representing 15.1% of the total workforce.

    Those classed as economically inactive, including people looking after a relative, on long-term sick leave or who have given up looking for work, fell by 34,000 to 8.8 million.

    The UK’s employment rate is now 74.6%, the joint highest since records began in 1971. “

  28. The last opinion polls on the eve of the Dutch election have shown a small surge for Mark Rutter’s VVD abd Wilder’s PVV falling further behind. It will be interesting to see how accurate the Dutch polls. In the 2012 election BTW, the polls actually overestimated the number of seats the PVV would get.

    The EU will be pretty safe with Rutte re-elected in the Netherlands, Macron (the most pro-EU French candidate) as president of France, and either Merkel or Schultz as German chancellor. The UK on the other hand will have to deal with a fairly hostile group of EU heads of government during the Brextit negotiations.

    With respect to the latest Scottish polls, in addition to showing Yes still struggling to rise past 50 %, the small rise in anti-EU sentiment in Scotland is consistent with the assumption that, if a second national referendum were held today., “Leave” would win again, but probably by an even bigger margin,

  29. @carfrew

    You see the North Sea O&G as having challenges. I see it as an opportunity.

    Re the deficit. Of course, you are right to mention it. But what is at issue are two things. First the Scottish economy is in the position it is- with a great deal of spending on health and social protection as a result of the policies from Westminster . In particular, I have in mind health inequalities. You have probably seen this before.

    https://pcwww.liv.ac.uk/~alexss/thatcherism.pdf

    That said, it does not mean that Scotland would not face particular challenges on becoming independent. But independence itself is the first, necessary step to dealing with having to spend so much on health and social care.

    Not just the price of oil that is important. It is the number of employees paying taxes and the activities by companies in the fields. That can be encouraged by a favourable tax environment.

    I reckon corporation tax, which counts for GERS purposes, is roughly 33% of the tax take. in favourable conditions it would amount to about £10-11 billion. Most but not all would go to an independent Scotland. The total tax take including all employees in the industry and supply side is about £20 billion. Half the employees’ numbers are Scottish, half English.

  30. @Sam

    “You see the North Sea O&G as having challenges. I see it as an opportunity.”

    ———-

    No, I’ve made clear I see both challenges and opportunities, whereas you have tended to put the rosier case.

    We went through this before last time around, with Indypeeps going on about how oil won’t go below ninety dollars etc. and anything else is scaremongering etc.

    We’ve seen that movie, so this time I’m keener on a more balanced, sanguine view. And if Indypeeps can rise to it, it makes your case more robust in the longer term.

    I am aware of what happened under Thatch. The difficulty is partly that Indypeeps tend to pass over what has been done since then to improve things somewhat: Devolution, Barnett etc.

    But also, to what extent does Independence allow you to go further. Which is why we’re discussing the economics. I agree the tax take matters too, not just the oil price. Can you really mess with the tax take enough to compensate for a low oil price? If you up taxes you get less investment in oil, cut taxes you might get more oil output but you get less tax. The Laffer Curve hypothesis is a bit suspect after all…

    Of course, there are other potential economic issues like the hit to trade of a hard border with us, the impact on your economy of not being in the Sterling Union or maybe even the Euro for a while, difficulties in borrowing cheap the way we can, possible relocation of some businesses, etc… Few of which seem to get much consideration from Indypeeps…

  31. @AW

    You couldn’t release my reply to Sam from automod coulda ya?

    Thanks!!!

  32. @Carfrew

    I think again we are both speculating. To some degree GERS is irrelevant. I think any Scottish government would manage the O&G industry better than the UK government. Extraction costs are high for the North Sea so, as/if the price recovers it may well be better to explore in frontier territory.

    And of course, we do not know what the costs of Brexit might be to the UK or an independent Scotland.

    See here for a link to a piece by Richard Murphy which I had missed until today

    http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/03/15/more-on-why-gers-might-properly-be-called-crap-data/

    Here are a few bits of it

    “Second, is it reliable? Let’s just think the big taxes such as income tax, NIC, VAT and corporation tax. As yet Revenue Scotland are not sure who is tax resident in the country, although they are working on it. This data is not based on any such split. It could be wildly inaccurate, just as Revenue Scotland’s attempts at working out who is tax resident were.

    As to NIC, nothing requires an employer in Scotland or England to say where their employees are located. The fact the NIC is paid from a particular address is neither here nor there: it may give a hint. It is just as likely not to do so.

    The same is true for VAT. Scottish VAT is declared on whole of UK VAT returns: no one knows how much is due for Scotland. It’s guesswork based in a consumer survey. Now just imagine for a moment that company accounts were based on extrapolated consumer surveys to work out how much people might have spent with the company instead of using the accounting records and consider which is better, and you get my point. A distinctly poor option is being used.

    Last, there isn’t a person on wealth who knows how much profit is declared in Scotland. I suspect that not a single company that straddles the border knows. And why should they? Right now the data is meaningless. In that case no one has a clue what Scottish corporation tax owing should be.

    This is some very approximate data that Scotland does not control being used for a purpose for which it is not fit, which is to say whether or not Scotland would run a surplus or deficit post independence when just about everything, including the data, would be different.

    I have to say those protesting do so without justification. This information cannot sustain the claims they make if it whilst mine are wholly justified.”

  33. Speculating again, here is a link to an article by Pisent Masons on the possible future of North Sea O&G.

    https://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2017/february/flurry-of-billion-dollar-deals-signals-start-of-third-wave-of-north-sea-activity-says-expert/

    “Energy deals expert Rosalie Chadwick described the deal as the likely “tipping point” leading to a “third wave of the North Sea’s evolution and a number of other significant transactions in the months and years ahead”.
    “More availability of funding, a stable oil price, better alignment of price expectations for both buyers and sellers, and a fresh approach to decommissioning responsibilities means that all the chess pieces are lined up with the North Sea poised for a period of productive M&A activity,” she said…..

    “This funding boom is a combination of businesses successfully adjusting to the new $50 oil norm and resetting their cost base which has resulted in a surge of confidence in investment in North Sea assets,” Chadwick said.
    “We’re also experiencing a transformation in terms of the treatment of decommissioning as assets change hands. Majors are taking a more realistic view, with recognition that some liabilities will need to be retained and the net result of this shift in attitude is that more deals will get over the line,” she said.
    The average cost of extracting a barrel of oil or gas fell by 45% during 2015, according to the latest figures from industry body Oil and Gas UK.”

  34. Carfrew

    “Yes, briefly I wondered why Oldnat was fixing on the Single Market thing”.

    I’d have thought it obvious. I look at polling data.

    While there is still a large majority in Scotland who would want all of UK to remain in the EU, that is not going to happen. Hence we have to deal with the new realities.

    Polling still suggests that most would want an indy Scotland to be an EU member, but there is a significant section that would prefer EEA membership without being an EU member.

    The ScotCen analysis confirms that, while there is greater euro-scepticism in Scotland than before the EUref ” it would appear that more or less all of the overall increase in Scotland in Euroscpeticism during the EU referendum campaign occurred amongst those who wish to stay in the UK.”.

    Yet the scepticism about the EU remains among a section of indy supporters. Since most of these seem willing to accept EEA membership, however, it would seem foolish to put them off voting for indy, by mounting ScotRef as a specifically “EU membership” campaign.

    Indeed the recent MORI poll confirms that analysis. While the percentages of Yes and No voters choosing the EEA model are very similar (26-27%), those wanting an indy Scotland to be outwith the EU are much more Noes.

    Only 5% of Yessers support that idea, while 31% of No voters say that would be their preference.

    Sensible campaigns are based on appealing to those who might support you, as opposed to trying to placate those who are implacable opponents!

  35. Back to the reliability or otherwise of GERS.

    Here is a response to Richard Murphys post saying that GERS is useless.

    “Thanks Richard. I am a fellow professional who also has a degree in economics and finance. I have served on the board of three listed companies and been responsible for the Scottish (oil service industry) parts of those businesses.

    I have long dismissed the GERS figures for the same reasons you have now made clear. I have previously done this on the basis of hunch and my own experience over 30 years in industry. I have been privy to the very information which, as you point out, the statisticians don’t have, nor do they ask for. I have completed National Statistics questionnaires with the contempt they deserve.

    The notion that turnover and profit are correlated is, of course, nonsense. But that appears to be the assumption in GERS. In one of my earlier roles, I was ‘responsible’ for 10% of an international group’s revenues, but that represented over 30% of the group’s profits. I suspect that is the norm in the oil industry.

    The other glaring omission from GERS appears to be the ‘Head Office effect’. One of my employers had a head office on the outskirts of the M25 with more staff than the only UK operational office in Scotland. I’m certain that the majority of the GDP relating to this business – not to mention the payroll taxes from the HO, were attributed to the nearest tax office to Reading. Half of London is made up of head offices pushing pens but creating no GDP. It’s a farce!”

  36. Mr Murphy was asked about replacing the current use of data. This is his response to the question.

    “There is no data that will really be available by 2019 – that’s the reality

    What will be needed with or without independence is a well managed Revenue Scotland that manages tax revenues in Scotland

    And there needs to be much stronger respect for the need for real Scottish, Welsh, NI and regional data

    But there is no serious attempt to provide it

  37. Today we learn that the UK Gov hasn’t even done an analysis of the economic effect of a hard Brexit, according to David Davis.

  38. And is this truly a surprise? The cost is no longer the deciding issue, whatever it may be. A u-turn because it transpired the cost was unacceptable would itself not be acceptible, so better not to find out.

  39. @ Danny

    “Looks as though sturgeon is becoming leader of the real opposition at Westminster despite not being an mp.”

    She really is. I really like her. I wish she’d give up independence, nominate SNP candidates for every constituency. Then she could become PM. (Don’t think that’s happening).

    Here’s a question. Would it violate any kind of international conventions for Nicola Sturgeon to speak at the California Democratic Party Convention? We have one coming up in May though it’s going to be a s***show. But I actually posed this question to a fellow Delegate who’s a Regional Chair and she loved the idea. I think the Nats on this site would know better than I.

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