Last night Labour held Stoke Central and lost Copeland to the Tories. As usual, by-elections don’t tell us a huge amount about the bigger political picture, but are very important in setting the political narrative.

By-elections are very unusual beasts. Because they don’t decide who will form the government for the next five years, only who will be the local MP, people are comparatively free to use them to register a protest. They are much more fiercely contested than your average seat at a general election. The constituency itself will also normally have its own local ideosyncracities that mean it can’t just be read as if it is a microcosm of Britain as a whole. So when people ask me what by-elections tell us, I normally say not much: if the change in the vote is in line with what the national polls are showing then it tells us nothing we didn’t already know, if the change is different to the national polls it’s probably just because by-elections are very different to general elections.

Looking at the two results, Copeland is a marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives… albeit, one that had been in Labour hands for eighty years. The national polls tend to show the Conservatives about 14 points ahead of Labour, the equivalent of a 3.5% swing from Labour to Conservative since the general election. Therefore if Copeland had behaved exactly in line with the national polls it should have been on a knife edge between Conservative and Labour. In the event the Tories gained it comfortably. We cannot be certain why the Tories did better than the national picture would have predicted, thought the most obvious hypothesis is the unusual nature of the seat: Whitehaven is a town wholly dominated by and dependent on one industry – nuclear power – and the Labour party were perceived as being hostile towards it.

On the face of it Stoke Central was a less interesting result – Copeland is one for for the record books, but Stoke saw hardly any change since the general election (only the Lib Dems really saw a significant increase in their share). However it does perhaps give us a idea of the limits to the UKIP threat to Labour. UKIP were perceived as the main challengers from the beginning and it was a promising seat for them: a somewhat neglected working class Labour seat that voted strongly for Brexit, but with a Labour candidate who was remain. They seem to have thrown all they could at it, but with very little success. Again, we can’t be certain why – Paul Nuttall obviously had a difficult campaign and anecdotally UKIP’s ground game was poor, but there are also wider questions about UKIP’s viability now Brexit has been adopted by the Conservatives and without Farage at their helm. By-elections have often been an important route for smaller parties, getting them publicity and a foothold in Parliament. Whenever there has been a by-election in a northern city in the last five years or so there has been speculation about it being a chance for UKIP, but they never seem quite able to pull it off.

So what will the impact of these by-elections be? Copeland will be a body blow to Labour simply because of how incredibly unusual it is. Governments do not normally gain seats at by-elections. Lots of people will be writing about past examples today – 1982 in Micham and Morden (Lab vote split because of SDP defection, and the government got a surge of support during campaign because of the Falklands); 1961 Bristol South East (Tory gain only because the candidate with the most votes – Tony Benn – was disqualified for being a peer), 1960 Brighouse and Spenborough (ultra marginal to begin with). The fact that one has to go back that far to scrape a few examples that generally have extremely unusual circumstances underlines how freakish this is. The political narrative will go back to how Labour are in crisis…but whether that makes the slightest practical difference, I don’t know. Might it provoke another Parliamentary coup within Labour? Who knows. Might it sow some doubts among Corbyn supporters within the Labour party? Again, who knows. The point is, Labour have had terrible poll ratings for a long time, Jeremy Corbyn has has terrible poll ratings for a long time, but this did not stop him being being relected leader last year. The question of Labour’s leadership is one that seems to be a lot more about the opinion of Labour members than the wider public.


909 Responses to “Stoke and Copeland by-elections”

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  1. @Saffer

    “What I find scary in this graph, is that change is actually greater for the UK (and France) than it is for the USA>”

    ———–

    Not really a surprise, because for all that our home-grown neolibs celebrate the US as a bastion of the free market, the US state actually intervenes quite a bit and does things like save their car industry and fund the development of the net and the space thing with all its spin off.

  2. @Guymonde

    “Mind you, you geek away about Intel processors just as Carfrew geeks away about synths. And Thorium. And storage. So maybe you are natural soulmates.
    As to immigration, perhaps they’ll all start coming to Sunderland to staff all these new factories that spring up when Phil Hammond (didn’t he invent an early version of the synth?) does his impression of Tony Benn by backing winners in the manufacturing sector.
    If we can really convert the Tories to having an interventionist industrial policy, perhaps Brexit may not be such a bummer after all.”

    ———–

    I haven’t really explained much about synths thus far, not like my attempts with Thorium and Polywells etc.

    Although I could was lyrical about FM synthesis, or Fourier Analysis and additive synthesis…

    Regarding Brexit and Interventionism, one potential benefit of Brexit is that we might escape some of the EU restrictions on intervening that peeps tell us about…

  3. @Alan

    “I suspect that will happen after a few years under my belt. One of the problems is I’m technically old, even though I’m starting a career from scratch.”

    ———–

    I know a few older mathematicians… They hang out in one or two bars I visit occasionally. One recently finished a PhD and went into finance… another was into music originally but now analyses data for a big institution. Seems to be quite common for people to come to maths a bit later these days.

  4. @Oldnat (On the TNS poll on support for Euro):

    Much of the support for the Euro is a testament to how far it is an identity issue in much of Europe. Mrs1832 is Spanish. She is perfectly clear that the subject of the Euro is beyond analytical debate in Spain – she is very much on the other side of the fence to me on European integration.

    No matter how much you walk past respectable looking beggars in her home city, usually holding up cards starting “Soy Espanol…”, leaving the Euro is beyond contemplation in Spain. Even if it is accepted to be economically dubious, that is of secondary importance.

  5. Not sure what the definition of ‘technically old’ is.
    I suppose Oldnat must fit it, given his name. I’m not so sure about Miserable Old Git – he comes across quite youthful.
    I am 107 – does that make me technically old?
    Te be fair, that’s a lie, I was thinking of The Old Howard oops Other (these damn keyboards)

  6. The trouble with the Brexit debate (not with Brexit, that’s different) is actually quite simple. Remainers (and some others) say that it cannot be done in a way in which the risk is manageable. The problem is, of course, that negative statements cannot be disproven (or proven for that matter). Then on the debate is not very fruitful.

    in contrast Leavers say that the risk is manageable (otherwise they can’t say that it’s worth it). The trouble is that it then requires an argument, and there is none. Then on the debate is not very fruitful.

    So we have two flowerless trees that can’t bear fruits. Remainers will point out the risks, the intricacies, etc, the Leavers will ask for evidence that it cannot be done.

    On the top of it we have the proposition of why the referendum had to happen, the horrific xenophobia, the open racism, and some metaphysical belief in the eternal order of things, plus the impossible situation of the LP, the class attributions of opinions, the superficiality of geography, the convoluted political narratives, etc.

    Even if there was a fruit in this debate, it wouldn’t have a seed (or would be nothing else, but seed, no flesh, no skin, just seeds of polarisation).

    And there is the political reality. TM, unlike the Bourbons, doean’t support the deluge,for ideological reasons, but she thinks she is good in surfing.She might well be, but playing cards on a surf board, making sure that the trump ace is retained for the last round to complete the grand slam is perhaps a bit far fetched. Hence the divergent opinion on her performance (not to mention that in the meantime she has some domestic headaches).

    So, in my opinion, the Brexit discussion is pretty meaningless, bit the inevitable flops and successes will be interpreted in the narratives of the two sides, rather than on their own merits.

  7. @ Carfrew

    Jeez, when I was young anyone coming to maths beyond 20 was already pensionable.

    Is there some correlate to the apparent aging of mathematicians, or is is a purely stochastic process?

  8. @Guymonde

    I thank you muchly, but sad to say I was born as far back as our good Queen’s coronation. (And remain a Republican nonetheless).

  9. György Lukács, probably one of the greatest Marxist philosophers of the 20th century, has a short article from 1930 or 1931, Grand Hotel Cliff. In this various intellectually interested people discuss the things of the world. Even the ultra leftists join them in the drawing room, after experiencing the phenomenology of being an outcast in their specially furnished rooms. in the meantime the world was heading to the cliff.

  10. Carfrew

    Oh it’s possible, just too old to get government funding for a PhD in Japan I’d need to find an external sponsor (which do exist, just bigger hurdle).

    PhDs in Germany are very well funded, treated like a graduate job, same pay grade as secondary school teacher (and they pay those well too). With a PhD and research articles under my belt, entering Japan to work and getting permanent residency becomes easy as a “person of high value”.

    Staying in Germany and doing a post-doc is another option. Making even a Junior Professorship has some weighty perks in Germany as you are essentially a public servant. A big chunk of your tax goes away as things like unemployment insurance, pension, healthcare get taken care of by the “Land”.

  11. @Laszlo

    “On the top of it we have the proposition of why the referendum had to happen, the horrific xenophobia, the open racism, and some metaphysical belief in the eternal order of things, plus the impossible situation of the LP, the class attributions of opinions, the superficiality of geography, the convoluted political narratives, etc.

    Even if there was a fruit in this debate, it wouldn’t have a seed (or would be nothing else, but seed, no flesh, no skin, just seeds of polarisation).”

    ————–

    Well, you left out synth prices in your list, but yeah, it’s quite hard to get purchase in the Brexit debate, but that’s what makes it a bit more challenging.

    I mean, compared to summat like the bedroom tax which has plenty purchase but we don’t bother with because it’s over really quickly.

  12. @Alan

    Seems like you got it figured out. Germany is quite good for synths too. Read in the paper of the Brits currently living in Germany, in response to Brexit many are considering taking up German citizenship…

  13. Carfrew

    Read a similar article. Not sure I’d take citizenship, permanent residency would probably do but understand why those who have been living there longer probably have more attachment to their country as they see it and feel forced to get off the fence.

    At least in 2018 I’ll be able to look forward to penalty shoot outs!

  14. @MISERABLE OLD GIT

    “Jeez, when I was young anyone coming to maths beyond 20 was already pensionable.
    Is there some correlate to the apparent aging of mathematicians, or is is a purely stochastic process?”

    ———-

    Well moddind is a stochastic process, especially automod, not sure about mathematicians.

    In theory, being young favours maths, because fluid intelligence peaks in one’s early twenties. Hence it’s not unusual for the great mathematicians to make key discoveries in their early twenties.

    But I don’t know that this absolutely has to be the case. I think it’s possible to grasp some things later that stumped you when younger. I’m not a proper mathematician, but there’s maths I struggled with during my degree that I find much easier returning to it more recently.

    It’s possible the net helps…

  15. @Alan

    “At least in 2018 I’ll be able to look forward to penalty shoot outs”

    ———-

    You might find it awkward if they play England tho’!!

  16. Carfrew

    I’m not a proper mathematician either, just someone who’s studied quite a few fields and has a decent toolbox at his disposal. I have a good grounding in maths but never really studied it from a pure maths point of view. I’ve always picked up techniques and treated them as tools to be used, with good instincts about where to use each tool.

    For me, maths isn’t something to be studied, it’s something to be used.

  17. Carfrew

    “You might find it awkward if they play England tho’!!”

    Maybe a little but tbh if England get out of the group that’ll be an achievement.

  18. LASZLO

    @”the horrific xenophobia”

    Or to put it another way -concern about the effects of rapid & uncontrolled population increase via immigration on various aspects of our society ;often portrayed by certain people as xenophobia in order to avoid addressing those concerns.

    @” the open racism,”
    Or to put it another way-the isolated incidents of the few usual idiots looking for an excuse to duff up a foreigner.

    @” some metaphysical belief in the eternal order of things, ”

    Or to put it another way-rejection of the metaphysical belief in eternal order of the Pan European Polity.

  19. @COLIN

    LASZLO

    @”the horrific xenophobia”

    Or to put it another way -concern about the effects of rapid & uncontrolled population increase via immigration on various aspects of our society ;often portrayed by certain people as xenophobia in order to avoid addressing those concerns.

    @” the open racism,”
    Or to put it another way-the isolated incidents of the few usual idiots looking for an excuse to duff up a foreigner.

    @” some metaphysical belief in the eternal order of things, ”

    Or to put it another way-rejection of the metaphysical belief in eternal order of the Pan European Polity.

    It seem the lady doth protest too much: why would you think Lazlo’s comments would apply to your thoughts, unless you feel that you need to justify them because they carry an element of truth?

  20. joseph1832

    my brother has lived in Spain for 20 years and takes a strong remain line. He would confirm what you say about the Euro.

    The difficullty is a different perception of things. To Spain and some euro countries the euro and the EC enhance their status in the world and is a reassurance against the perceived corruption of their own politicians. My fear is that our negotiators will expect the EU negotiators to do the logical and smart commerciall thing and do a deal while the EU negotiators may have a different approach and there will be mutual incomprehension.

    My own prediction:

    1. Technical issues such as aviation etc will be easily resolved;

    2.Immigration will be controlled by the Uk but will not result in a great reduction in numbers which will occur not because of capping but by restrictions in the issue of NI numbers,benefit caps and redefinition of worker. There will also restrictions on agencies recruiting exclusively in EC countries which are discriminatory to uK workers.
    3.I do not believe that we will be able to resolve a new trade agreement. We will eventually return to tariff free trade but it will take many years;
    4. There is no way the EU parliament will sign off on a UK nil financial contribution to EU and UK tariff free trade.I do not think the EU has yet come to terms with the loss of nigh on 20bn gross and 12bnt from their budget and a number of net recipients may move to net contributors.There may be negotiations but politically i cannot see that the UK could offer more than 5bn in return for tariff free trade.
    5. Relations with the EC will deteriorate badly ( think opening graphics of dads army).

  21. @ S Thomas
    Relations with the EC will deteriorate badly ( think opening graphics of dads army).

    And that’s their fault?

  22. WB

    whoa sensitive!
    Did I say it was their fault?
    You may think it was but my post was if anything entirely neutral.l

  23. Chris Riley,
    ” …we can conclude that those surveys will get gamed to oblivion by people purporting to hold view they don’t have to ensure they get the messages they need to see.”

    And what makes you think politicians did not have a similar idea years ago, and therefore set out to influence opinion polling to their own benefit. Erroneous polling predictions influence outcomes, so if there is any means by which it might have been done, be sure that it has. Very disturbing all these polling companies of late getting the wrong results.

  24. OLDNAT

    Thanks for your reply. I didn’t think you would favour the Euro as a currency if Scotland left the UK, not at the moment anyway.

    “Fortunately, despite the nonsense being spouted at the SLab conference and in the London media, there is neither the necessity, nor the possibility, of that being the case in the near future.”

    Yes there has been some rubbish in the media on the issue. I agree with you that it’s not a possibility in the near future.

  25. S Thomas

    I think that friction free logistics is as important as tariff free terms .

    Scenes like this at Dover/Calais ( though there are special circumstances apparently) would be a disaster.:-

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeys-trade-to-europe-see-delays-amid-long-truck-queues-at-kapikule-border-gate.aspx?pageID=238&nID=104566&NewsCatID=345

    The Times reports on the need for new IT systems capable of dealing with 390m customs declarations pa & applications from 3.3 m EU citizens for work permits whilst doubling the work permit handling capacity .

    The very mention of “Whitehall” & ” New IT System” in the same sentence makes me go cold.

  26. ‘Relations with the EU will deteriorate badly’

    Relations between the present UK government and the EU may well deteriorate. Relations between much of England and the EU could hardly get much worse. Those of us who live in polities which voted to remain in the EU can only groan in despair at the way things are going…

    Regarding the move in the House of Lords to guarantee the position of EU citizens already here, Mrs. B (who is Italian) is very glad that at least some people in Parliament are wanting to treat her as a human being and not as a bargaining chip to shore up the Conservative Party and, for that matter, the Labour Party, in the battle to win votes at any cost…. Personally I don’t hold out any hope that the humane approach of the HofL will survive the onslaught of the gutter press…… (and I include the Telegraph in that, given its disgraceful approach to this issue).

    Have a nice day all…

    P.S. I really don’t think Nicola would be well advised to go for a second referendum at present…… Better to wait until it becomes clear which powers currently exercised by the EU will be transferred to Holyrood and how the finances are going to be sorted……..

  27. LEWBLEW

    “but it’s turned into some endless smug/vitriolic Brexit squabble and is extremely zzzzzzzzz.”

    We can certainly agree on that.

  28. S Thomas,
    “Technical issues such as aviation etc will be easily resolved”

    Hmm. Does the EU want Heathrow to remain a major hub airport? Might they prefer transatlantic trade switching elswhere? Negotiations may move away from political imperatives about maintaining the integrity of the EU and not having exceptions, but if they do then surely they will concentrate on economic benefit, and this may mandate excluding the Uk.

  29. S Thomas

    “it also has the flavour of someone running through the air raid shelters in 1940 only shouting out the number of spitfires and hurricanes shot down.”

    “Splendidly put, we all know who you are talking about. You’ve got me off to a great start to my day. Keep it up.

    :-)

  30. LAZLO

    “So, in my opinion, the Brexit discussion is pretty meaningless, bit the inevitable flops and successes will be interpreted in the narratives of the two sides, rather than on their own merits.”

    I don’t agree with most of that post but I totally agree with the above. Not that it will stop me posting from time to time, when either pleased or irritated.

  31. Good morning all from a dry and dull Reigate

    Number Muncher just tweeted.

    YouGov/Times:

    CON 42 (+1)
    LAB 25 (=)
    LD 11 (=)
    UKIP 12 (-1)

  32. Another excellent YG poll for Mrs May.

    Labour have much to do.

    The Liberals can carry on shopping for sandals and muesli.

  33. Coin – Jack Whitehall says he needs a new IT system for his jokes catalogue.

    Sorry to upset you.

    ToH – I wondered about ON’s remark and thought it suggested he thinks Indy Ref #2 is unlikely any time soon but was not sure.

    That would be my view (and it seems John B’s view or at least advice to Nicola who I am sure has an aide surfing this site :-)

  34. I think the Liberals and Farron need to be careful not to overplay their Brexit hand. Yes it gives them clear blue water over Labour, but they are fast becoming a one issue party. That’s a problem.

  35. JASPER

    Aye, I’ve no seen many Liberals about lately on UKPR, must be a half price sale on lol ;-)

  36. Rich,
    “liberals….they are fast becoming a one issue party. That’s a problem.”

    But previously they were a zero issue party, so the current situation is a considerable improvement.

  37. Naughty Danny but I did actually LOL which people say when they don’t and annoyingly offer after their won attempts ah humour!!
    LMGDAO.
    What?

  38. I’m sure it was on UKPR someone wrote “The Lib/Dems are UKIP in reverse”

  39. For Welsh speaking peeps

    “HM Revenue & Customs?Verified account @HMRCgovuk now8 seconds ago

    ” Dydd G?yl Dewi Hapus! Atebwyd 21,500 o alwadau gan ein Timau Cymraeg yn 2015-16 a gwnaethant ddelio gyda 26,500 o lythyrau a ffurflenni”

    Happy #StDavidsDay! Our Welsh Language Teams responded to 21,500 calls & dealt with 26,500 letters and forms in Welsh in 2015-16

  40. @Danny:

    “I think the Liberals and Farron need to be careful not to overplay their Brexit hand. Yes it gives them clear blue water over Labour, but they are fast becoming a one issue party. That’s a problem.”

    Agreed. They’ve always been strong on Europe, so it was natural that they should trumpet this in discussions around Brexit – but it has never been the only part of their concerns, and nor is it the only thing that matters to voters. So it is, that they have been showing consistent gains in local elections, even in Leave wards.

    They are not a one issue party, and nor have they ever been a zero issue party. One of their great features is that they provide an alternative voice to the binary, adversarial battle between Conservative and Labour that too easily descends almost to class war, and often is more concerned with political point scoring than genuine attempts to find consensual solutions to national challenges.

  41. JIM JAM

    That was how i read it.

  42. For the first poll after Copeland and Stoke there isn’t as much movement as might have been expected; just a statistically insignificant boost for Tories and weakening for UKIP.

    I would think all the parties except Tories will be happy with that; UKIP and Labour both had poor nights but do not seem to be have been punished, and the LDems were virtually invisible in the news for the last two weeks so will have not expected to make any progress.

    The Tories must have been hoping for a slightly larger bounce, but I doubt they are losing any sleep given the strength of their position relative to the other parties.

    I do wonder if the Tories lack of significant uptick is because they are nearing some sort of practical VI ceiling – given how weak all the other parties are, is it the case that pretty much anyone that would seriously think about voting Tory is currently ticking their box?

  43. Well if you want a more nuanced answer, the libs were desperately seeking a policy with pull on voters and had not found one. They were still drowning following the disaster of having identified thmselves so closely with conservatism. Remain has two huge benefits for them, one it appeals to half the voters as an important issue. Two, it is the exact opposite of the conservative position.

    Aside from that, most of their remaining voters agreed with it and it is pretty much their longstanding position, so no question of hypocrisy. If their campaign succeeded in halting Brexit – or more likely if there is a change of national view on the issue – then they can uniquely claim to have been ahead of the curve. If not, well it will still have pleased their natural voters and probably won some others.

    And more than that, it should tide them over through the next general election at least. Brexit has saved the liberal party from yet another electoral record low. Coupled with labour’s miserable showing at the moment, they should at least restore their base while the effect lasts.

  44. Looking back at the last Feb 2016 YG poll, which was

    Con 37
    Lab 30
    LD 8
    UKIP 16
    Fairly typical of the time

    Shows a 5% swing Lab – Con over the year. Also a small but noticeable rise for LD and a similar fall for UKIP. Presumably some Lab to LD and UKIP to Con as well as straight switching Lab to Con.

  45. The Yougov figure of 12 for UKIP is their second successive decline from this pollster. Are we about to see further erosion of their support, after the Stoke implosion?

    After Brexit, their reason for existence has been largely taken over by the Conservatives, while Paul Nuttal conspicuously failed to deliver on his promise to take working class votes from Labour.

    Any further decline for UKIP will see them drop below the LibDems.

  46. For those interested in the economy
    Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI are reporting:-

    UK manufacturing records further solid growth of output and new orders in February

    Key findings:
    UK Manufacturing PMI at 54.6 in February (55.7 in January)
    Output and new orders rise solidly, albeit at slower rates
    Price inflationary pressures remain elevated

    Summary:
    The UK manufacturing sector experienced further solid growth of production and new orders during February. Although rates of expansion slowed, they remained well above the respective long-run averages.
    Increased new business inflows were underpinned by improved domestic and overseas demand, the latter aided by the continued weakness of the sterling exchange rate. The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI® ) posted 54.6 in February, a three-month low and down further from December’s two-and-a-half year high. However, the PMI was firmly above its long-run average of 51.6 and nonetheless signalled expansion for the seventh successive month.
    February data pointed to a further marked increase in UK manufacturing production. Growth remained solid across the three product categories – consumer, intermediate and investment goods – with the steepest increase seen in the latter. Sources: IHS Markit, UK Office for National Statistics Underpinning the latest increase in output was a further solid expansion of new order volumes. Companies indicated that growth of new business from the domestic market slowed, but noted that this was partly offset by a sharp acceleration in the rate of increase in new export business.
    Mostly good news although continued signs of some slowdown compared with recent highs.

  47. @TOH

    good news on manufacturing, perhaps low Stirling rates will do the one thing the economy has need for years; rebalance away from invisibles and increase manufacturing from its current low rate at 11% of output, if we start to approach Germany or Japan rates in the mid 20% it would be excellent.

    see: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05809/SN05809.pdf

  48. WB

    Yes, of course it would , but we have a long , long way to go. Thanks for the link, interesting data.

  49. Although the YouGov poll shows little change, it does cement previous movements in recent weeks. so it is possible to discern something happening beyond MOE. UKIP are sliding, and Labour seem to be lower at around 25/26. The Tories seem to be secure at 40+. LDs stuck on 11.

    I continue to expect Corbyn to resign, but if not, he urgently needs to bring forward some fresh ideas. It is no good just repeating laudable platitudes.

    I would start with ‘abandon HS2, a third runway at Heathrow, and Hinkley Point’. Replace with the encouragement of renewables, regional policies and more funding for the NHS.

    Labour need to say what they will cut to fund their other programmes, if they are to have any credibility.

    These seem to be open goals for me, and definite vote winners.

    The other great Labour mystery is their refusal to embrace, or seek to embrace SMEs. There is massive potential there, as SMEs are fed up with the Tories favouring big business. Lab seem to be opposed to business full stop.

    Labour find it hard to deal in realpolitik, for fear of breaching some sacred cow principle. You have to crack an egg to make an omelette

  50. @WB agreed
    I made a rather cynical post yesterday about Nissan, who are looking to support transfer of component manufacturing into the UK from China/Japan/rEU. They are looking for some government support to make this happen.
    It will need some ‘brave’ and counter-intuitive for Tories industrial policy for this to be successful but if they rise to the challenge, things of this nature could seriously mitigate the economic damage from Brexit

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