ICM’s regular poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 44%(+2), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 13%(+1), GRN 4%(nc). The changes since the previous ICM poll aren’t significant, but it’s worth noting that the 18 point Conservative lead is ICM’s largest for many years (there was a lead of 19 points in an ICM/News of the World poll in 2009 and a 20 point lead in an ICM/Guardian poll in June 2008)

ICM also asked about the position of EU nationals in the Brexit negotiations – 42% think the British government should only guarantee the position of EU nationals in the UK once the EU guarantees the rights of British citizens in the EU; 41% think Britain should do it unilaterally straight away. There is a similarly even split on the fate of John Bercow: 30% think he should stay, 32% think he should resign. Finally they asked about Donald Trump’s visit. 18% think it should be cancelled, 37% think he should be invited but not given a full state visit, 32% think a full state visit should happen. Full tabs are here.

To catch up with some other recent voting intention polls. YouGov’s latest figures came out at the tail end of last week (though fieldwork is now a whole week ago) – topline figures were CON 40%, LAB 24%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 15% (tabs). The lead is similar to that from ICM, but with lower support for the main two parties.

Opinium also had voting intention figures in the Observer at the weekend. Over recent months Opinium have tended to be something of an outlier, showing Labour leads of seven or eight points rather than the double digit leads consistently reported by other companies. This fortnight they showed a shift towards the Conservatives, putting their figures more in line with other companies: CON 40%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% (tabs here.)


766 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 44, LAB 26, LD 8, UKIP 13”

1 2 3 4 16
  1. Not sure if this has been picked up, but the Markit Household Finance index has taken quite a tumble this month.

    Despite rising workplace activity and less worry about employment insecurities, minimal income rises and sharp cost increases has led to a sharp fall in the index. Intentions to make major purchases have fallen at their fastest rate for 3 years.

    It’s going to be interesting to watch, but if there is a sharp drop in purchasing, logically that ought to feed through to the employment markets, which is the only thing that is preventing this particular index from plunging.

    All consistent with other data, and consistent with the theory of a Brexit related inflation spurt affecting consumer incomes. How long and deep these impacts are will be the key question. For me, my current guess is that people may be a little surprised by higher than expected inflation.

  2. With the Tories odds tumbling, I feel quite bullish in my earlier prediction that they’ll come through the middle in Stoke.

    As there will be no Lib Dem surge as in leafier climes, the UKIP candidate ‘s unsuitability, Labour’ s woes and May’s “Brexit means exit” mantra – I see a perfect storm for the unlikeliest of results!

  3. “but if there is a sharp drop in purchasing, logically that ought to feed through to the employment markets,”

    That’s the thing. It didn’t in the UK during the financial collapse.

    If there is a drop in purchasing then all these threatened prices rises will not happen and the costs of change will have to be pushed back down the supplier chain and abroad – either nicely or nastily via failures.

  4. Alec

    I suspect the effects of inflation will hit different parts of the population quite differently and at different times. It might be that it’s now beginning to affect the parts of the population who will tighten their belts when faced with inflation.

    A single rate is a very blunt tool. When some goods are rising by 15% or more, some people will feel the pain more than others.

  5. @Neil Wilson – “That’s the thing. It didn’t in the UK during the financial collapse.”

    It did, very much so – via wage suppression.

  6. ALAN

    @”I suspect the effects of inflation will hit different parts of the population quite differently ”

    Interestingly-and intriguingly the Markit Household Finance Index for
    February says :-

    ““People working in the private sector are the least
    downbeat about their financial outlook since early-
    2016, suggesting that the improving economic
    backdrop and rising income levels have helped to
    offset inflation concerns. By contrast, public sector
    staff and households on fixed incomes are more
    concerned about their financial outlook than at
    almost any time since mid-2014.”

  7. SEA CHANGE
    @ANDY JS @Allan C

    “Deary me, that’s simply atrocious for Labour. 18 points behind. That is tied with the Mori poll of mid October (47–29) for the Tories biggest lead over Labour”.

    “44 to 26 would equal a majority in the 100-120 range on present boundaries.
    Has a government with such a wafer thin majority ever had a lead in the polls like this before? I can’t think of one”
    _______
    I prefer to use the word “tragic” rather than atrocious but I agree with the theme of your post. In England at least, the public appears to be giving TM a lot of breathing space to get on with Brexit. The lack of opposition from Labour can probably be landed at their own door mat. The public doesn’t like a party with an inconsistent message and one that is at odds with its leader.
    ……………..
    JOSEPH1832
    @AllanChristie:
    “The trouble, as this site has taught me, is to think into the mind of the more casual voter”
    _______
    Are you referring to politics or attire? ;-)

  8. BILL PATRICK
    Allan Christie,
    “On Bayesian grounds, I’m upweighting the increase in Lib Dem VI to an increase of 7/8%. Brexit has been a huge boon for them”
    __________

    HA! That’s quite an increase but your Bayesian inference after a quick calculation is at odds with my Lib/Dem VI hypothesis.

    3 quarters =3/4
    3/4 = 6/8 or 0.75
    7/8 = 7/8 or 0.875
    so 7/8 is bigger than 3 quarters

    So it appears you’re being far more generous than my ¾%. Again this should be music to BIGFATRON’S ears… ;-)

  9. BIGFATRON
    @Allan Christie
    Well, your analysis is a little lacking, but clearly the ICM poll is not good for LDems.

    “I’d be less concerned about 8% from Opinium if I was a LDem activist – they always show LDems significantly lower than other pollsters; however ICM,although the second most negative polling company about LDems, tend to be closer to the mean.
    it wouldn’t entirely surprise me if they had dropped back a bit – the LDems have been out of the news for the last few weeks and they need voters to be reminded that they exist”

    “We will have to see if this one poll becomes the start of a trend sufficient to overturn the previous twelve polls (excluding Opinium) that all listed LDems at 10% or more. Too early to say yet”
    ________

    Even if the Lib/Dems were on 10% then it’s hardly setting the heather alight. It’s the perfect political storm, Brexit, Labour dissatisfaction, UKIP infighting and the Cornish National Party has its night off. Surely with all this, the Lib/Dems should be polling at least consistently in the mid-teens?

    You’re not going to find much comfort in my analyses of the Lib/Dems but you may with BILL PATRICK. He’s giving you a 7/8% increase on your 2015 result to my 3/4%.

    Even the recent local by-election results have been a hit and miss.

    It.s not good. )-:

  10. Colin (quoting Markit )
    “By contrast, public sector
    staff and households on fixed incomes are more
    concerned about their financial outlook than at
    almost any time since mid-2014.””

    I’ve seen more gloomy analyses. More concern than ALMOST any time in the last two and a half years! Lol! I’m ALMOST more concerned about where I left my glasses than for two an a half years.

  11. COLIN

    Finally, the penny has dropped. From your link…

    “But as former Shadow Cabinet minister Lisa Nandy warned that Labour’s membership was “increasingly unrepresentative of the country as a whole”, MPs also challenged him over an ICM/Guardian poll giving the Conservatives an 18-point lead”
    _________

    All that membership but little traction in the polls. The LibDem’s harp on about how they increased their membership as well but overall it’s done diddly for them. ol Coby tells us Labour are the biggest political party in Western Europe..Does this win elections

    Speaking of Diddly…Cmon Sutton Unt.

  12. THE OTHER HOWARD…….Thanks for the kinship, I do feel that we elder statesmen view life in a more positive light than our younger, less experienced, fellow posters.
    I am more concerned at, what appears to be a worrying trend appearing in the slightly more, ‘ educated ‘ young, away from independence of mind, body, and spirit , into a more insecure and anxious view of the world, could this be the result of realising that all the dreams of a future bright with promise, will be shattered when job interviews reveal the true worth of a Degree in David Beckham’s hair cuts, from the ‘ Uni ‘ of Billericay.
    Mind you, apparently it woz edookayted people wot voated remoan, and losers like wot we is, wot voated aaaht. :-)
    CARFREW…How dare you, and after I generously allowed you sight of my otherwise secret Limoncello recipe. ;-)

  13. @ToH

    Well certainly the early years have a big impact, but because of my interest in education, I am wont to believe that people can make major changes to their lives and capabilities later on. And sometimes this happens almost accidentally.

    My mother died when I was young too, although it was in my teens rather than as an infant. Obviously this was pretty traumatic, and it had assorted teachers writing me off as my studies ground to a halt, while a few stuck up for me. But there were curious effects which one didn’t expect and which had a profound effect.

    One of these concerned music. For a few years I had been striving to learn to improvise, but had failed at every turn. For example I could copy guitar solos, but couldn’t originate them. I knew it was possible to improvise because had seen my mother do it. But it seemed closed off to me.

    Until she died. Within weeks, I could improvise without fuss. I also found I could now compose on the piano, albeit somewhat naively. I couldn’t understand why, but I sensed it was to do with her death. Later I looked into it, and discovered that there is research to show that musicians whose mothers die in their teens get something of a boost. Not all of them, but I think it was summat like 25%.

    I discovered another effect which possibly reinforces: when someone close to you dies, there’s a tendency to adopt some of their traits. Even things that might have annoyed you. It’s possibly a way of kinda keeping them with you.

    This rather changed the course of my life, and you can see that profound developments can occur later, which is something that majorly informed my efforts in education. Unfortunately, not everyone working in education was on quite the same page…

    Regarding your generation, obviously I am too young to have experienced wartime cameraderie, but my parents lived through/fought in the war, so they had that mindset and so did their friends which I got to pick up on after a fashion. Boarding school had its effect too, people used to share their belongings quite freely, partly as a way of coping with the open-prison-ness of it all.

  14. @Ken

    “…How dare you, and after I generously allowed you sight of my otherwise secret Limoncello recipe. ;-)”

    ———

    Lol, did you miss my compliments in my post to ToH? Anyway, I appreciated the Limoncello thing, and indeed the stuff on the Algarve. Regarding the youngsters, there are various challenges in terms of the world they are facing, including fewer stable career paths, alongside the constant scrutiny of social media etc., faster pace of change etc.

  15. @Ken

    I meant to add, there’s a suggestion that some anxiety results from the social media relentless focus/potential for criticism etc.

  16. This poll shows the resilience of the people, and the power of the people over the, ‘ liberal establishment ‘ and its sense of entitlement. People on here have been dissing schadenfreudens, ( sic ) for being unpleasant and horrid, but we all know the lovely warm feeling it generates, especially when it’s a result of the discomfort of the patronising metropolitan liberal elite and its showbiz and media running dogs….Thanks Mao. :-)

  17. @TOH @Ken

    I like reading your posts very much as ‘old timers’ :-)

    I like your view of life. I’m in my mid-forties, but can see that so many people dash around, fretting about this or that. I try to take life one day at a time and appreciate the small things here and now. I don’t worry about material things too much. Far too many folk worry about the price of everything without knowing the value of anything.

    Life’s a funny old thing, and you’ve got to enjoy what you’ve got. I’m an avid Radio Four listener, and after listening to Eddie Mair and Steve Hewlett talk about Steve’s cancer for many months, it was sad to hear Steve died today.

    His attitude to life was exemplary, and give us all something to aim for.

  18. @ Ken

    “could this be the result of realising that all the dreams of a future bright with promise, will be shattered when job interviews reveal the true worth of a Degree in David Beckham’s hair cuts, from the ‘ Uni ‘ of Billericay.”

    Haha that tickled me, but you forgot to add Gender Studies, which is worthless unless you plan to work for the Guardian.

  19. Enlightenment tends to follow education, but not for all!

  20. JONESINBANGOR…..And never, for those of a leftist disposition, it would seem. ;-)

  21. PETEB

    :-)

  22. ALLAN

    Never mind the quality-feel the width ( as someone I can’t remember used to say)

  23. CARFREW…..Appreciated, of course.
    I am reliably informed by certain unreliable sources, that an enhanced creativity can be brought about by the use of various useful substances, I have no idea what they could be, but Lou Reed is a useful reference point. ;-)

  24. Dogma rules for some. Liberalism for others.

  25. CMJ

    @”, it was sad to hear Steve died today.”

    Very-as you say, puts all else into perspective today.

  26. JonesinBangor

    How about Liberal dogma?

  27. @Ken

    Well “micro-dosing” is all the rage in Silicon Valley apparently…

  28. @Pete B

    Yes, the Orange Book.

    A beacon of self immolation.

  29. I feel I should point out, for purposes of board harmony, that while many of us might cleave to a more classical definition of liberalism, there is also the Bigfatron version, more along the lines of the ‘Modern Liberalism’ of the first half of the last century, which was rather less laissez faire and adopted rather more from the up-and-coming socialist interventionist creed.

    Of course by the Sixties things were reverting back more towards classical liberalism again…

  30. Carfrew
    Remind me – which version of liberalism involves wearing sandals and having a beard?

  31. “Haha that tickled me, but you forgot to add Gender Studies, which is worthless unless you plan to work for the Guardian.”

    ———

    Depends how it’s taught. You can learn to analyse and usefully deconstruct allsorts by working out how to do it via Gender studies…

    But obviously I’d prefer to do it via music…

  32. What an extraordinary collection of impenetrable mumbo-jumbo on here tonight.

    We mere rationalists aren’t privy to what it all means.

  33. @Pete B

    Well I think I shall dodge that elephant trap and just say that I’m not sure Liberalism is just confined to guys with beards…

  34. CARFREW……When I was working, I was a frequent visitor to Palo Alto on business, my US hosts spent far more time in the men’s room, relative to their wine consumption, than we Brits did, I put it down at the time, as a Black countryman bred on pints of Banks’s mild, to their weak bladders, but now I know better.
    I put their impressive productivity down to their almost permanent manic state. :-)

  35. :-)

  36. @Somerjohn

    “What an extraordinary collection of impenetrable mumbo-jumbo on here tonight.”

    ———–

    Actually it’s peeps finding common ground in a lighthearted way. Necessarily a bit random otherwise it’s too much like someone has too much of an agenda. It has its virtues…

  37. Ken
    I don’t know if you’re still from round here but it’s hard to get proper Banks’s any more. Most places have a ‘smoothpour’ version full of nitrogen bubbles which give me gout (or the bends, not quite sure which).

  38. CARFREW……I prefer to do it via the medium of mime, ( but I try to keep it quiet ) :-)

  39. @Ken

    Yes, well, the Americans didn’t have the long-standing Brit tradition of doing more with less effort. Ideally very little effort at all…

    This is something I meant to mention to Neil A the other day, when he was on about peeps on the dole, not keen on working. I put forward a variety of explanations, because indeed there is a variety, but I left an important example out, the hangover from the Aristocracy that one should strive to be in a position to not have to work for one’s income.

    This runs deep in our psyche. So much so, that in a TV series by Prescott a while back, on the matter of class, when he was interviewing some unemployed youngsters on benefits, living on an estate, and asking them what class they thought they were, they said they were middle class, because they didn’t have to work…

  40. PETE B
    Carfrew
    “Remind me – which version of liberalism involves wearing sandals and having a beard?”
    _________

    Don’t forget the muesli and lentils. ;-)

  41. Somerjohn

    The best comment all evening.

  42. PETE B….I have spent over 40 yrs living and working in London, I still venture back to Wolves to see relatives, but not often. As a youth I drank only Banks’s mild, in fact I was born near Chapel Ash so I could smell the brewery, a privilege. :-)

  43. @Laszlo

    “The best comment all evening”

    ——-

    In what way is your life improved by his empty jibe?..,

  44. CMJ

    “Life’s a funny old thing, and you’ve got to enjoy what you’ve got. I’m an avid Radio Four listener, and after listening to Eddie Mair and Steve Hewlett talk about Steve’s cancer for many months, it was sad to hear Steve died today.

    His attitude to life was exemplary, and give us all something to aim for.”

    Agree 100%. That has been a sobering listen, and he was calm and dignified right the way through.. One year younger than me….

    Radio 4 is a pretty unique radio station, but sometimes something comes along that just astounds me!

  45. CARFREW……Does AW know of this middle class, Brexit voting, demographic, we should be told ! ;-)

  46. Ken
    “I have spent over 40 yrs living and working in London,”

    You poor chap. I do sympathise. Next time you’re up here, try to get a pint of Enville. It’s a relatively new brewery, but a really nice drop.

  47. @Andrew111

    Radio 4 is a pretty unique radio station, but sometimes something comes along that just astounds me!

    I love the way I feel a direct and personal relationship with radio. It does feel like a Radio 4 family. Today feels like someone in the family has died.

    I think Eddie Mair is the best serious TV and Radio host bar none. I don’t know how he held it together today, as he and Steve were clearly very close.

  48. @Carfrew

    I suspect it’s not the aristocracy that are like that these days, but the children of the oligarchs.

    The only aristo I know personally is quite busy indeed, running the trust that operates his (baronet) father’s stately home as a conference centre and hippy magnet, assisting in managing the two farms and trying to find ways to stop his Jacobean farmhouse from falling down. All the while having an actual real job as a web designer and trying to raise his two kids – and now his wife’s nephew who has been placed with him by social services.

    His car is an old japanese jeep thing.

  49. @KEN

    “Does AW know of this middle class, Brexit voting, demographic, we should be told ! ;-)”

    ——–

    Well I suppose it’s possible that Anthony unaccountably missed Prezza’s documentary…

1 2 3 4 16