ICM’s regular poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 44%(+2), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 13%(+1), GRN 4%(nc). The changes since the previous ICM poll aren’t significant, but it’s worth noting that the 18 point Conservative lead is ICM’s largest for many years (there was a lead of 19 points in an ICM/News of the World poll in 2009 and a 20 point lead in an ICM/Guardian poll in June 2008)

ICM also asked about the position of EU nationals in the Brexit negotiations – 42% think the British government should only guarantee the position of EU nationals in the UK once the EU guarantees the rights of British citizens in the EU; 41% think Britain should do it unilaterally straight away. There is a similarly even split on the fate of John Bercow: 30% think he should stay, 32% think he should resign. Finally they asked about Donald Trump’s visit. 18% think it should be cancelled, 37% think he should be invited but not given a full state visit, 32% think a full state visit should happen. Full tabs are here.

To catch up with some other recent voting intention polls. YouGov’s latest figures came out at the tail end of last week (though fieldwork is now a whole week ago) – topline figures were CON 40%, LAB 24%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 15% (tabs). The lead is similar to that from ICM, but with lower support for the main two parties.

Opinium also had voting intention figures in the Observer at the weekend. Over recent months Opinium have tended to be something of an outlier, showing Labour leads of seven or eight points rather than the double digit leads consistently reported by other companies. This fortnight they showed a shift towards the Conservatives, putting their figures more in line with other companies: CON 40%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% (tabs here.)


766 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 44, LAB 26, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. @Oldnat

    That may be good for Labour I suppose.

  2. Faisal Islam said on Sky news that Doris could reduce turnout to 30% or less.

  3. ………..that is in Stoke.

  4. COLIN

    Britain [email protected] 28m28 minutes ago

    Told turnout expected to be down to 30% (from 50%) in Stoke Central.
    ………

    Turnout looks to be well down but who will it benefit? One Labour source has said Labour will hold Stoke by as much as 5,000 and UKIP will be 3rd.

  5. I think both will go to Labour.

    I had a doubt about our Cumbrian neighbours, but if Winklebury (Basingstoke) could give almost two thirds of the votes to Labour against the Tory candidate on an out of day by-election yesterday on very local issues, anything is possible.

  6. Tim [email protected]_Tim 22m22 minutes ago
    More
    “10:00pm – Several Labour sources on the ground have predicted that Labour will by as much as 5,000 with Tories in second and UKIP in third”

  7. ALLAN

    Don’t know. No one seems to be predicting anything other than a Lab hold.

    UKIP in 3rd would ask serious questions about their “Northern” strategy.

  8. Tory canvassers believe Copeland is in the bag. This should be a disaster for Corbyn, but people will make excuses for him.

    @Toby Ebert – “It seems likely that history will continue to go in the direction of more communication and physical interaction between different peoples/nations. Hopefully this should lead to fewer violent misunderstandings, fearfulness and anger between people/nations…….

    This may also eventually mean the withering away of the nation-state as sensible political unit.”

    Well I have to say I think you are wrong, and probably misguided if you think that nation states should be consigned to the past.

    The internet gives us the greatest means ever to communicate with the widest and most varied audience possible, and what has it done? It has enabled like minded people to aggregate together, self reinforcing views that are sometimes offensive and dangerous, while also reinforcing segregation. We aren’t hearing more voices – just more echoes.

    Humans are social creatures, and crave identities. We each work this out in all sorts of ways, but life works best not when there are no differences, but when we recognise these and get along with them.

    I don’t see any great philosophical argument for or against nation states, other than that they are units of a vaguely common social, historical and cultural identity, and can form administrative units of a reasonable size that are acceptable to most people. On the basis of organizational competence and political acceptability, nations are likely to be with use for many centuries yet.

    Oddly enough, I think the biggest threat to future peace isn’t from nation states, nor from lack of communication. I suspect it is precisely the opposite – instead coming from the pan national, rootless extremists, using global internet communications to disrupt and attack traditional nation based societies.

    I would argue the precise opposite of your thesis. Liberalised internet based communication allows violent groups based on ideology, rather than geography – like ISIS – to flourish and develop, overcoming the safety valves of normal national control by establishing self reinforcing online communities where normal rules and human decencies are readily subverted as adherents withdraw into the virtual world and away from the world of real, and different, people and groups.

  9. @Alec

    I think patriotism, identity and “soft nationalism” probably have a role in promoting peace, although I know it’s a bit of an odd slant.

    For me aggression and distrust are mainly rooted in fear, uncertainty and self-doubt.

    Confident nations that believe in themselves, value their institutions and honour the best bits of their history may, in my opinion, be the most stable, constructive and tolerant ones.

    Of course that’s not quite the same thing as the “bitter nationalism” of populists who hate what their country has turned into.

  10. LD’s gain one of the minor byelection seats being polled today from the Tories in Kettering.

  11. I’m back from chess now.

    Colin
    I’m glad you put Northern in quotes, as I am sure you know that Stoke is in the Midlands.

    Alec
    Great post. Toby has noble ideals, which I am sure we all share to a greater or lesser extent, but as you and someone else (Carfrew?) pointed out, humans are by nature tribal. As an Aston Villa fan, I have been attacked in my youth by Birmingham city fans who were the same nationality, race, and probably only lived a few streets away.

    We need the robots to take over and keep us in order!

  12. Matt Singh reckons Tories winning in Copeland would be the first government by election gain overturning a main opposition parties majority of more than 3% without a defection, disqualification or significant change of parties contesting since Worcester in 1878.

    It would therefore be the worst opposition performance in 139 years.

    If this happens, can we at last all agree that Corbyn is a complete disaster?

  13. P.S. (For Oldnat)

    ‘We’ in my previous post means the human race, not English, British or any other sub-group.

  14. @Neil A – Agree wholeheartedly. I’ve often been critical of my Scottish compatriots for what I see as their lack of confidence, which is what I believe lies behind the call for independence, odd as that sounds.

  15. Alec

    Disaster for whom?

    And ‘complete’ may be a little too all-encompassing! Words such as ‘relative’, ‘considerable’ or ‘apparent’ might be better.

    And just to conclude – we don’t know the results yet.

  16. @Pete B

    I’ve been meaning to ask for ages about your chess playing.

    What are your preferred openings for black and white?

  17. COLIN

    Reading through all the tweets on the twitter feeds it looks like quite a comfortable hold for Labour in Stoke with a poor showing for UKIP.
    If UKIP does come in 3rd then I think we will be looking at their 3rd new leader since Farage….Or even a Farage comeback?

    Copeland is a little harder to call and Dimby on QT has just said it looks like Labour have held the seat.

    Meanwhile…

    Britain [email protected] 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Barton (Kettering) result:
    LDEM: 57.0% (+57.0)
    CON: 29.8% (-19.3)
    UKIP: 9.4% (-14.1)
    GRN: 3.7% (-3.5)
    No Labour unlike previous
    …….

    Lib/Dem surge in the wee local by-elections.

  18. Alec & Neil A

    One of the interesting aspects of comments made on this site (not particularly by you guys – your comments just brought it to mind) is that “nationalism” was frequently seen as a disease that “other” people had – not the British.

    Indeed total denial that there was any such thing as “British nationalism” were quite common a few years back.

    Now, post Brexit, it’s become commonplace to talk about nationalism as being a feature of “us” and not just “them”.

    Indeed, sensible people like yourselves recognise that, like any other “ism” it has variations – some of which are positive, while others are fairly negative.

    I find this encouraging – though I wish it hadn’t taken a Brexit decision to bring it about!

  19. @John B – I did say ‘if this happens’, but in terms of the definition of a disaster, you’ve missed the point. The worst performance for 139 years would rank objectively as a ‘complete’ disaster surely, but if you prefer a softer kind of language, we could always describe it as a ‘disaster relative to everything else’?

  20. Britain [email protected] 8m8 minutes ago
    More
    Chigwell Village (Epping Forest) result:
    CON: 76.0% (+13.6)
    LDEM: 24.0% (+20.5)
    No Lab and Grn unlike prev.

  21. There’s definitely something significant going on with the LDs at a local level.

    Very perplexing for them that the national VI doesn’t look better. Have people decided they make decent local administrators but can’t be trusted with red boxes?

  22. @Oldnat – my guess is that the unwillingness to talk about British nationalism was a train running on the same rails as the inability to adequately define what it means to be English.

    I always felt that there was an innate confidence that meant these things really didn’t need to be thought about and acknowledged. Obsessing about your national identity is something that smaller and less confident nations did.

    The growth of anxiety around English identity and the wider British nationalism is, as @Neil A possibly implies, a reflection of a loss of confidence.

  23. Britain [email protected] 17s17 seconds ago
    More
    Charterlands (South Hams) result:
    LDEM: 46.1% (+46.1)
    CON: 39.3% (-25.0)
    LAB: 10.7% (+10.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-15.6)
    No Ind unlike previous.

    A Lib/Dem surge in the South West?

  24. Pete B

    Since you referred to “humans”, I took it that what was you meant.

    “We” can always mean “all” or “some” or “me and my mates”. It is usually clear from the context, but I only have a problem with those people who don’t provide context.

    “We all have penises here” may be an accurate statement when referring to the members of some golf clubs – but willy wavers are a minority within the human community. :-)

  25. @AC

    “Reading through all the tweets on the twitter feeds it looks like quite a comfortable hold for Labour in Stoke with a poor showing for UKIP.
    If UKIP does come in 3rd then I think we will be looking at their 3rd new leader since Farage….Or even a Farage comeback?”

    Hmm…Mike Smithson has a view that Ukip are not sophisticated enough organisationally to maintain a credible threat for Westminster seats. If that is the case then it won’t matter who the leader is. Indeed, even under Farage they struggled to turn votes into seats.

    There may be a more difficult problem for Ukip going forward. The Tories may have shot their nationalist fox.

  26. NEIL A
    There’s definitely something significant going on with the LDs at a local level.

    Very perplexing for them that the national VI doesn’t look better. Have people decided they make decent local administrators but can’t be trusted with red boxes?
    ________

    You’re right, the Lib’Dems are making some spectacular gains in local elections and the one they took from the Tories in South Hams council is in a very strong Tory area of South Devon.

    The Lib/Dems local success and their national VI are like parallel universe’s

  27. CMJ
    Re chess. I am by no means an opening theorist, and have a repertoire that generally takes people out of the books. With White I generally play e4 unless it’s against an opponent I play regularly, when I might throw in d4 occasionally to keep them on their toes. From there it depends on what they do, obviously. Against the French I sometimes play the Steinitz variation against a weaker player. With Black I play the Charlick gambit against d4. Anyway, that’s enough for now. How to make tea deserves more attention on this site. :-)
    —————————————

    Re the Stoke by-election. Despite all the knowledgable predictions, I wonder whether the expected low turnout might favour UKIP as their supporters might be more committed/fanatical depending on your viewpoint.

  28. @AC

    “A Lib/Dem surge in the South West?”

    This could be a concern for the Tories if the trend continues, as the South West was where they largely won the last General Election.

  29. @Pete B

    “Re the Stoke by-election. Despite all the knowledgable predictions, I wonder whether the expected low turnout might favour UKIP as their supporters might be more committed/fanatical depending on your viewpoint.”

    I would certainly have expected this to be the case but I’m not sure how popular Nuttall is with Ukip voters. Is he the type to get the vote out even on an atrocious day?

  30. It’s going crazy on twitter….

    Labour sources saying they predict Tories will win Copeland and Tories now saying they are less confident of winning Copeland.

    Meanwhile, the Lib/Dems are saying the Tory turnout in Copeland will be higher and they may have nicked the seat…..

    And I’m just starting my second packet of popcorn.

  31. Alec

    I agree – in the same way that gender politics was not something that heterosexual (well claiming to be that) males tended to consider either.

    Similarly, class politics seemed an irrelevance to those that “knew” that they were born to rule.

    However, if you are not part of what seems to be the ruling group, and your interests not represented in their deliberations, then a focus on which characteristics appear to exclude you from the decision making process seem inevitable.

    So, if you are equally arguing that those who self-define as “working class”, “women”, “LGBT”, sub-state nationalities, or any other minority, lack confidence in their ability to make decisions about their own lives (but have rules imposed on them by those unconcerned by such issues), then we are in agreement.

  32. I haven’t looked in on here for some months. It’s good to see that Alec’s visceral hatred for Jeremy Corbyn hasn’t changed. Any vote would spell disaster for him according to Alec. No doubt even if Labour greatly increased their majorities, he would still find some reason why this proved that Jeremy is a disaster.

    Keep it up old chap. It’s quite amusing really.

  33. RAF
    @AC
    “A Lib/Dem surge in the South West?”
    This could be a concern for the Tories if the trend continues, as the South West was where they largely won the last General Election
    ____________

    The Tories won 8 seats in the Southwest from the Lib/Dems but I don’t think we can read too much into some local by-election results as a catalyst for a Lib/Dem comeback at a GE. Unless all their current VI is mainly coming from the SW.

  34. It will still be a long wait for results from either Stoke or Copeland. Meanwhile, LibDems have notched up another three stonking gains at council level:

    Charterlands (South Hams) result:
    LDEM: 46.1% (+46.1)
    CON: 39.3% (-25.0)
    LAB: 10.7% (+10.7)
    GRN: 3.9% (-15.6)

    Barton (Kettering) result:
    LDEM: 57.0% (+57.0)
    CON: 29.8% (-19.3)
    UKIP: 9.4% (-14.1)
    GRN: 3.7% (-3.5)

    (Note that both of these were from standing starts – not even contested, last time around)

    Then there’s this, at TC level:

    Wingates – Westhoughton Town Council

    Lab 63 14.1%
    Tory 86 19.2%
    LD 242 53.8%
    Ind 42 9.2%
    Gre 16. 0.4%

    At local level at least, the LibDem surge continues apace, notwithstanding the occasional disappointment.

  35. I’m definitely staying up. There haven’t been such interesting by-elections for years. Stoke with three possible winners, Copeland with a possible record turn-round for nearly 150 years! Great stuff.

  36. Copeland rumours: Rural areas putting Tories over the top:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834912516761337856

  37. If land could vote….

    NumberChuchrPolitics on the way the wards in Copeland voted last time:

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/834913134552961025

    From my analysis of the latest Twitter runes, it looks likely that Tory turnout in the rural areas will just outstrip Labour turnout in the urban areas.

  38. PETE B

    Stoke looks to be a safe Labour hold but all the sensational rumblings are coming from Copeland.

    Britain [email protected] 4m4 minutes ago

    Source at Copeland count saying ballot boxes from rural wards may just push Tories ahead of Labour
    ……….

    I’m staying up too.

  39. For the sake of posterity, I’d like to flag that for a fortnight or more I’ve said Labour will hold Stoke with ease and just lose Copeland.

    Happy to hang my head if I’m mistaken.

  40. Twitter rumours now saying the Tories are home and dry in Copeland. They’re ahead on the night and expected to also win the postal vote.

    I knew Sellafield was important to Copeland. I didn’t know it was THAT important.

  41. Told turnout expected to be down to 30% (from 50%) in Stoke Central.
    ………
    Turnout looks to be well down but who will it benefit? One Labour source has said Labour will hold Stoke by as much as 5,000 and UKIP will be 3rd.

    If both these statements are true then Lab will have significantly increased both their majority and share of the vote in percentage terms. On a turnout of 30% (or less) a majority of 5000 is at least 25%, and possibly as much as 30%, compared to <17% last time. That would imply Lab on c50% share.

    One or other statement must be wrong (possibly both)

    The low turnout certainly looks more likely than maintaining the majority in numerical terms.

    Of course it could be true that Lab are 5,000 ahead of UKIP, but that would put Cons firmly in second place.

  42. PAUL H-J

    Info is very fluid regarding the by-elections. Changing all the time.

    Latest…

    Prediction from the LibDems…

    Copeland – Tory win

    Stoke – Lab 1st, UKIP 2nd, Tories 3rd

  43. Meanwhile up in Scotland….

    statgeek Retweeted
    Yes [email protected] 13h13 hours ago
    More
    BREAKING: Labour Tory coalition collapses in Clackmannanshire. Control of council passes to SNP.

  44. Just heard a (possible) 38% turnout in Stoke on Radio 5. The reporter wasn’t quite sure, but that would be relatively high compared to the GE. Presumably favouring Labour?

  45. @Colin

    Yup 38% Stoke Turnout and 51.4% in Copeland

  46. Pete B,

    Earlier we heard that turnout was around 30%. There were also claims of 25%.
    Equally, we were told earlier this week that c6,000 postal votes were returned – which is around 10%.

    I wonder if the 38% comes from adding PVs to turnout at polling stations?

    Of course, it could be the reporter is confused and the turnout is 25-30% including PVs.

  47. Sorry meant @Pete B

  48. I wonder whether what we are seeing in Copeland isn’t just Sellafield trumping the NHS as an issue there; but just as we saw in the US (perhaps for different reasons) a stronger than expected rural vote, and whether this may be the most meaningful takeout from more marginal constituencies.

  49. Corbyn just said, “Whatever the results I am staying on to fight for this mass membership movement”

    Music to the ears of the Tories, UKIP and the Lib Dems!

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