ICM’s regular poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 44%(+2), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 13%(+1), GRN 4%(nc). The changes since the previous ICM poll aren’t significant, but it’s worth noting that the 18 point Conservative lead is ICM’s largest for many years (there was a lead of 19 points in an ICM/News of the World poll in 2009 and a 20 point lead in an ICM/Guardian poll in June 2008)

ICM also asked about the position of EU nationals in the Brexit negotiations – 42% think the British government should only guarantee the position of EU nationals in the UK once the EU guarantees the rights of British citizens in the EU; 41% think Britain should do it unilaterally straight away. There is a similarly even split on the fate of John Bercow: 30% think he should stay, 32% think he should resign. Finally they asked about Donald Trump’s visit. 18% think it should be cancelled, 37% think he should be invited but not given a full state visit, 32% think a full state visit should happen. Full tabs are here.

To catch up with some other recent voting intention polls. YouGov’s latest figures came out at the tail end of last week (though fieldwork is now a whole week ago) – topline figures were CON 40%, LAB 24%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 15% (tabs). The lead is similar to that from ICM, but with lower support for the main two parties.

Opinium also had voting intention figures in the Observer at the weekend. Over recent months Opinium have tended to be something of an outlier, showing Labour leads of seven or eight points rather than the double digit leads consistently reported by other companies. This fortnight they showed a shift towards the Conservatives, putting their figures more in line with other companies: CON 40%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% (tabs here.)


766 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 44, LAB 26, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. @toh

    I certainly wouldn’t challenge it as a feat of arms and, in the short term, it had a significant impact on dynastic politics in France. On the other hand, in my view it had no long term impact on the development of Europe or England.

  2. HIRETON

    We can agree on that, thanks for replying.

  3. MAXT

    Both results expected between 3-4 am.

  4. Pete B

    UKPR ought to encourage roving reporters to by-election sites!!.

    It was a happy coincidence that i found myself there on this auspicious day.I went for a pub lunch in the heart of the cultural centre of Hanley eager to pick up on the prevailing political mood in order to relay the same to UKPR’s.If Apathy and chips been on the menu it would have sold out.discourse was there none. The weather was the main if not the only topic of conversation overheard. Which party that suits is hard to tell.

    I am about to leave the porcelain city having decided not to improve the cash flow of the east european beggar who approached me outside the railway station.

  5. S Thomas
    Roving reporters a great idea! Your railway station experience suggests a UKIP win!

  6. PeteB

    my money,literally, is on labour…but not my house.

  7. TEA

    In India the roadside caffs make tea like this every monrning: into a large wok put a large bag of sugar, a large bag of tea leaves and a large tin of dried milk; fill to the top with water; boil and keep it going all day….marvellously sweet, brown and milky in a hot climate!

  8. Opinium [email protected] 51m51 minutes ago
    More
    Polling in the North West suggests there is a swing to the Conservatives, but not quite enough to take Copeland.

    http://opinium.co.uk/what-to-look-out-for-in-copeland/

    As we all know by-elections don’t tend to follow what the national polls are showing. I’m still going for a Tory win.

    Good night for the telly on the ol political front. Question time from Stoke followed by This Week by-election special.

  9. TIDE OF HISTORY

    It seems likely that history will continue to go in the direction of more communication and physical interaction between different peoples/nations. Hopefully this should lead to fewer violent misunderstandings, fearfulness and anger between people/nations. For example, racism surely will not be able to exist if there are no races, i.e. we are all a sort-of brown colour.

    This may also eventually mean the withering away of the nation-state as sensible political unit. Of course, many people will resist this historical process, but it’s hard to see what could stop it in the long run.

    Maybe that’s why such a lot of UKIPers and Tories are so grumpy – deep down they know they are behaving like King Canute, but can’t bear to recognise the fact.

  10. Tony Ebert

    That or if aliens land…

    Hard to be worried about the guy with slightly darker skin compared to the bright green alien with two heads and razor sharp fangs.

    I wonder what that would do for UKIP VI? (I couldn’t possibly comment on whether or not they would elect him leader)

    and Knut knew full well he couldn’t hold back the tide… I think he would have been rather shocked if the tide did in fact refuse to rise at his command.

  11. @Pete B ex parte Jasper

    I had to Google the Royal Commonwealth Society and find that they were previously the Royal Empire Society and before that the Royal Colonial Society.
    I spoke before of the Polish gentleman I met out canvassing who said that Britain should get its Empire back.
    Perhaps by coming to live here he has inadvertently precipitated just such an outcome.

    Stoke: Lab hold Ukip a wekaish second, just holding off the tories
    Copeland: Lab squeak home by a whisker

  12. Stoke Labour hold. Catmanjeff’s narrative makes sense.

    Copeland. I think Labour will hold this as well, after so many years. If Labour loses then perhaps some soul-searching may be called for.

  13. In the UK, elections held in February have the lowest turn-outs of any month.

    Anyone, like me, who was trying to campaign in Feb 1979 will know why!

  14. Copeland:

    Tories to win relatively comfortably
    Labour second
    Lib Dems third
    UKIP fourth

    Stoke:

    Labour to win reasonably easily
    UKIP second
    Tories third
    Lib Dems fourth
    The Flying Brick a very close fifth

  15. Sometimes, Government Ministers can come out with some surprising comments.

    If John Hayes, Transport Minister in the UK Government, is advising the Cabinet on transport links to the Continent, I’m sure he will confidently assert that there are none, so there is actually no trade at all anyway.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tw081FBN19o

  16. I’m hearing about a Monster Raving Looney party surge, but surprisingly, it’s in Norwich North.

  17. Bill Patrick

    The Looney surge was just the UK Transport Minister, I believe.

  18. I have asked this before and no one responded, but:

    (1) Why is there no graph of polls since 2015?

    (2) Why is there no running average?

    These very helpful parts of UKPollingReport used to be on the sight but now no longer. Can someone tell me why?

  19. My personal view of the by-elections is that they will probably go something along the lines of the national polls. That is frequently not the case, with the LDs often able to magnify their national VI through careful and hard local campaigning, and Labour (back in the days when they had cohesion and the Tories were hated by over half the country) capable of crushing victories.

    But I just don’t see the Tories being able to outperform their already extraordinarily good national position.

    UKIP might have been able to break Labour in Stoke, but I think Nuttall’s difficulties have probably let some of the air out of their tyres. They will do well, but only amongst the properly kipper section of the population. Retail voters will look at the menu and think “hmm, not right now thanks”.

    I think that Labour will hold Copeland by no more than 2000 votes, and will hold Stoke comfortably but on a pitiful vote share (less than 40%).

    This will be treated as a boost for Labour, but I suspect the Tories won’t be crying into their beers. Corbyn in place until 2020 is probably compensation enough.

    Of course, confirmation of a terrible polling position of almost historic proportions shouldn’t be treated as a boost for Labour but it will be.

  20. @Harry Scott-Parker

    Our kind host is a very, very busy man with his work and family.

    If you want up to date graphs and averages try here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    I’ve book-marked it.

    If AW did the same, it would be a simply pointless replication of work that already exists.

  21. Toby Ebert
    “It seems likely that history will continue to go in the direction of more communication and physical interaction between different peoples/nations. Hopefully this should lead to fewer violent misunderstandings, fearfulness and anger between people/nations.”

    A noble vision, but I can’t see it happening until organised religion disappears.

  22. I don’t know enough about local issues to make an informed guess.

    The NHS & Nuclear would seem to be issues in Copeland-that looks like a draw between Corbyn & May.. The national swing from Lab to Con from Polls would be just enough to take out Lab’s 6% pts GE lead in Copeland. So I would opt for a narrow Lab hold as being par for the course.

    No idea about Stoke Central . A 16 % 2015 GE lead for Labour should withstand the National swing to Cons-so can Nuttall generate an 8% swing to UKIP from Lab?. Seems unlikely to me.
    I reckon par here is a comfortable, but reduced Lab lead over Cons.

  23. I think the weather today means less can be read from the by-election results than normal. And not much normally can read sensibly from then anyway.

  24. Neil A – the husband of the impressive Labour candidate in Copeland works at Sellafield which mitigates the undoubted positive for the Tories on nuclear energy.

    Probably a squeak home for Labour.

    Still very poor of course.

    In 2019 the artithmatic may be close and every non-Government MP may be significant.

  25. Sorrel
    Indeed. I mentioned earlier that I turned back from my journey there today. The locals have more to worry about than polling. Power still out for thousands.

    http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/traffic-and-weather-live-storm-doris-arrives-in-north-staffordshire/story-30157738-detail/story.html

  26. @Colin

    I’m surprised the Tories are running such a strong campaign in Stoke-on-Trent Central. Had they sat back a bit more some of their more nationalistic voters may have felt emboldened to cross over to Ukip so as to stick the knife into Labour. As it stands the Tories’ approach may help Labour get over the line.

    As for Copeland, it really does seem to be on a knife-edge.

  27. @RAF

    I think the Tories may initially have been tempted to do that, but by all accounts the young Tory candidate in Stoke is really rather good and they decided to give him some support.

    There’s also the fact that they might not like Labour, but they don’t like UKIP much either. And there’s the terrible risk that Corbyn might resign, and the Tories absolutely don’t want to take that chance.

  28. RAF

    Yes-Cons & UKIP @ 23% apiece in the GE really asked the question about co-operation.

    But I presume the prospect of Nutall in HoC throughout the Brexit debates would not be appealing to TM?

  29. I saw today SNP posters up in Aberdeen for the Scottish local government election in May 2017.

    For recent elections, numbers of posters have been declining in the NE, but this early display suggests a big battle is looming.

    Another straw in the wind was a report in the i newspaper that Tory Scottish Secretary David Mundell told a Holyrood committee that special immigration arrangements are likely for Scotland after Brexit. He also criticised the SNP for not doing enough to encourage immigration into Scotland.

    So it looks like the Tories intend that current immigration numbers will be maintained or even boosted. The only difference cf. our EU position, is that the UK government will decide to have a minimal control.

    How this could be managed along with tighter controls in England “hasn`t been determined” he said.

  30. @Tony Ebert “Hopefully this should lead to fewer violent misunderstandings, fearfulness and anger between people/nations. For example, racism surely will not be able to exist if there are no races, i.e. we are all a sort-of brown colour.”

    I highly doubt that, even if such a massive melting pot was achieved. Racism is just a larger macro version of tribalism. We are an expansionist, aggressive and warlike species.

    Human history is littered with this from the smallest tribal groups fighting between themselves with no discernable difference in colour, culture or creed, right up to vast multi-racial empires fighting each other.

    You only need to attend a football match to see this competitive behaviour well on display on the pitch and in the stands.

    Sorry for the depressing observation!

  31. Toby Ebert
    “It seems likely that history will continue to go in the direction of more communication and physical interaction between different peoples/nations. Hopefully this should lead to fewer violent misunderstandings, fearfulness and anger between people/nations.”

    From ‘A HItchhikers Guide to the Galaxy’

    The Babel Fish is a small, leech-like, yellow fish, and by putting this into one’s ear one can instantly understand anything said in any language; this is how Arthur Dent is able to comprehend the other beings he encounters on his travels. The Babel fish has led to significant and profound consequences for the Universe; apart from the philosophical implications, the Babel fish has started more and bloodier wars than anything else in the history of creation, because it has removed all barriers to communication.

  32. @Chris Riley

    Maybe TM is a Gooner.

    In the league cup (I’m old school) they put a young team out to blood them. They know they won’t win the tournament, but it gives them much needed experience for bigger matches.

  33. @Colin @Chris Riley

    I agree with you both, and have thought that a Labour win in Stoke suits the Tories strategically. Keeping Corbyn at the top busily making jam so they can broadcast his set of beliefs to the electorate come the next GE must be top of their wish list. Closely followed by keeping UKIP out of Parliament.

  34. @CATMANJEFF :) The genius of Douglas Adams!

  35. Good evening all from a blustery rural Hampshire.

    One thing I will predict is that we will have both by-election results declared well in advance of Ian Stewart getting out of prison. I caught part of the news on my way home and was the topic of conversation with a few other commuters on the train.

    34 years minimum!! The bugger will resemble a shrivelled up Yoda by the time he gets out and speaking of Yoda…a Yoda quote.

    ““Once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny, consume you it will.”

    Back to the by-elections…If Labour lose both seats tonight and ol Corby insists everything is okay and stays on as the leader, then Ian Stewart may actually be released from prison before the next time we have a Labour government.

    Yoda…“May the Force be with you.” ;-)

  36. @Allan Christie –

    often no truer words are spoken than those said in jest. Consider the fact that it took 3 general elections losses before Labour rebuilt its reputation the last time a true left wing leader held the party reins. A repeat would mean they might have to wait as long as 2035.

  37. Claudio Ranieri’s fate is a warning to complacent Tories but I don’t think anyone in the Tory ranks of the comparable quality as NGolo Kante is ready to join Labour.

    In fact I don’t think there is anyone in any party as important to them as Kante was to Leicester.

    Maybe one man band UKIP without Farage?

  38. TOBY EBERT
    TIDE OF HISTORY
    “It seems likely that history will continue to go in the direction of more communication and physical interaction between different peoples/nations. Hopefully this should lead to fewer violent misunderstandings, fearfulness and anger between people/nations. For example, racism surely will not be able to exist if there are no races, i.e. we are all a sort-of brown colour”
    ________

    Hmm, you’ve got me thinking. I’m hoping all this incredible amount of interaction doesn’t see us interacting and breeding with Bolivian’s too much, they are the shortest race in the World and too much interaction with them could see us Birts in future resembling something between a Neanderthal and a slightly shortened Caucasian with a hint of brown complexion.

  39. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    What’s wrong with being short now?

  40. SEA CHANGE
    @Allan Christie –
    “often no truer words are spoken than those said in jest. Consider the fact that it took 3 general elections losses before Labour rebuilt its reputation the last time a true left wing leader held the party reins. A repeat would mean they might have to wait as long as 2035”
    _____________

    To Labour supporter, this really would be some serious food for thought.

    Looking at the bigger picture for Labour, if the party is hedging its bets on lurching to the left in order to get back into power, then 2035 looks a tad too optimistic.

  41. ALAN
    ALLAN CHRISTIE
    What’s wrong with being short now
    _______

    Nothing wrong with being short… I’m just thinking people from the Netherlands who are the tallest race in the World may in future look down on us Neanderthal and a slightly shortened Caucasian Brits.

    Look at it this way. In future, we could be describing Dutch people as stretched versions of us. ;-)

  42. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I’m sure you meant nationality there… and I’m still no more enlightened.

    Perhaps you are suggesting that in the quest for human perfection we should start up selective breeding programmes and killing off the lesser races, that way we’d have perfect harmony with noone looking up or down to anybody else?

  43. ALAN

    I actually think you’re posting your own thought process. Quite disturbing.

    Moving on …

    Some wise words from Numbercruncher..

    [email protected]
    You may see local papers doing a straw polls, but those are either very wrong or very lucky. Nothing reliable until ballot boxes are opened”
    ______

    Apart from some predictions, we haven’t a clue what is happening. I’m looking forward to the party spin after the results. Everyone will claim some crumbs of success.

  44. Sometimes ever NumbrCunchrPolitics makes a clear statistical error. Take this post at 10pm precisely:

    “BREAKING: Big Ben says “Bong bong bong bong bong bong bong bong bong bong bong bong”

  45. Reading between the lines, it appears that Matt Singh – the owner of NumberCruchrPolitics believes Labour will hold Stoke-on-Trent Central but lose Copeland.

  46. RAF

    Britain [email protected] 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    ITV reports the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland and that Labour are hoping to edge Stoke Central.
    ____

    We will know soon. I’m going for quite a large win for the Tories in Copeland and a Labour hold on Stoke.

  47. @RAF

    Matt Singh appeared on a FT Podcast saying the same thing.

  48. CMJ – I think Tim Farron will be the Gooner as the LDs will finish 4th

  49. Faisal Islam reporting

    “Postal voting very low in Stoke – previous by elections have been won even before polling day. Not this one.

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