ICM’s regular poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 44%(+2), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 13%(+1), GRN 4%(nc). The changes since the previous ICM poll aren’t significant, but it’s worth noting that the 18 point Conservative lead is ICM’s largest for many years (there was a lead of 19 points in an ICM/News of the World poll in 2009 and a 20 point lead in an ICM/Guardian poll in June 2008)

ICM also asked about the position of EU nationals in the Brexit negotiations – 42% think the British government should only guarantee the position of EU nationals in the UK once the EU guarantees the rights of British citizens in the EU; 41% think Britain should do it unilaterally straight away. There is a similarly even split on the fate of John Bercow: 30% think he should stay, 32% think he should resign. Finally they asked about Donald Trump’s visit. 18% think it should be cancelled, 37% think he should be invited but not given a full state visit, 32% think a full state visit should happen. Full tabs are here.

To catch up with some other recent voting intention polls. YouGov’s latest figures came out at the tail end of last week (though fieldwork is now a whole week ago) – topline figures were CON 40%, LAB 24%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 15% (tabs). The lead is similar to that from ICM, but with lower support for the main two parties.

Opinium also had voting intention figures in the Observer at the weekend. Over recent months Opinium have tended to be something of an outlier, showing Labour leads of seven or eight points rather than the double digit leads consistently reported by other companies. This fortnight they showed a shift towards the Conservatives, putting their figures more in line with other companies: CON 40%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14% (tabs here.)


766 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 44, LAB 26, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    Good afternoon all from a very mild rural Hampshire.
    Britain Elects [email protected] 28m28 minutes ago
    More
    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 44% (+2)
    LAB: 26% (-1)
    UKIP: 13% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    (via ICM / 17 – 19 Feb)
    This is an extremely tragic poll for the Lib/Dems and an extremely good one for the Tories.

    This is the second poll in a row to show the Lib/Dems back on 8%. So, since their car crash election result back in 2015 and based on both the recent national polls the Lib/Dems have increased their standings by ½%. But you know what!….I’m feeling rather charitable so I’m going to round up the Lib/Dem increase from their 2015 election result from ½% to ¾%. That should keep BIGFATRON happy. ;-)

  2. AW
    I think your last para should have said ‘Conservative lead’. Interesting article though. Thank you.

  3. “ICM also asked about the position of EU nationals in the Brexit negotiations – 42% think the British government should only guarantee the position of EU nationals in the UK once the EU guarantees the rights of British citizens in the EU; 41% think Britain should do it unilaterally straight away”
    _____________

    Personally, the UK should take the moral high ground and guarantee the rights of EU nationals already here.We have to remember that behind each EU statistic there is someone’s livelihood and wellbeing.

    The majority of the public do want to see a cut in immigration but the above is something quite different. What the public would support is an automatic deportation of EU criminals in the UK serving their sentences back in their country of birth.

  4. “42% think the British government should only guarantee the position of EU nationals in the UK once the EU guarantees the rights of British citizens in the EU; 41% think Britain should do it unilaterally straight away.”

    I’d be interested to know the trajectory of this one?

    The Guardian has a new article each day gleefully explaining about how the EU are not even going to think about trade negotiations until we send them €60bn and a tribute of seven boys and seven girls to be sent to the Minotaur. If attitudes are hardening, it will not be a surprise. (It will also be time for Mrs1832 to get her citizenship…)

  5. I struggle to believe these extraordinary figures for the tories. They really don’t tally with my everyday experience. Clearly Jez and Labour are seriously unpopular but have they really gone to the tories?

    I see in the tabs that Don’t Knows are larger than Labour’s vote share on 20%. Is this normal or has this increased as labour’s share has fallen?

  6. “Personally, the UK should take the moral high ground and guarantee the rights of EU nationals already here.”

    How does that then work when the EU nations refuse healthcare cover to UK citizens abroad after we’ve guaranteed EU citizens here?

    So it’s not a matter of deportation, because nobody is going anywhere. The question is what status are EU citizens across the continent going to gain?

    It’s been said many times that this could have been sorted last July, but the EU countries decided to play politics with their own citizens instead of securing their status.

    The blame lies with them, not the UK government.

  7. One of the things that has happened with this poll is a large number of Labour and Lib Dem voters from 2015 now stating “don’t know” – 23% and 28%. This seems a very large number, and one I would expect to return to those parties in the most part if an election were to be called.

    I also liked that 7% of Lib Dem supporters (from 2015) were now in favour of voting for UKIP. Not what I would expect to see – but clearly it was observed.

  8. @ Nick Name

    I do not think the high levels of support for the Tories are due to them being loved or having great policies, I think its down to the public having very little serious alternatives.

  9. @ AW

    My post that has gone into moderation was sarcasm, if you read my last post in the previous thread you will get why :)

  10. @Neil Wilson:

    Such things as health care used to be dealt with in bilateral agreements – a lot of which are still in place, although in practice superseded by EU entitlements.

    It will, I agree, be untenable to guarantee all social benefits to EU nationals whilst their governments are doing their level best to bring the country economically to its knees.

  11. NEIL WILSON

    Two points…

    1…”How does that then work when the EU nations refuse healthcare cover to UK citizens abroad after we’ve guaranteed EU citizens here”
    ……
    Speak to your MP, I’m not a politician
    …..
    2….The blame lies with them, not the UK government”
    …..
    I never blamed the UK government.

  12. The difficulty with these polls is that, if there were an election, that would change everything with the biggest issue of the day.

    We saw in Richmond with Zac that he started with a massive lead, but as the focus came on Brexit, that led to people changing intentions.

    An actual election will be an opportunity for Remainers to vote tactically, and a test for whether Labour Leavers care enough to do likewise.

    As AW always says: you can’t really do polls on how people would be likely to vote in particular scenarios – only the solid question of “how will you vote” really counts.

  13. Nick Name

    If swathes of Lab go to DK, that will raise the Con VI once DK are removed from the analysis.

  14. JOSEPH

    I think we can all agree that you can’t really extrapolate anything from a by-election and use it as a barometer for what might happen at a GE.

    However, With BREXIT being such a contentious issue with many remainers and the Lib/Dems acting as the standard bearer’s for the anti-Brexit movement, I would have thought by now we would have seen this reflected positively in the Lib/dem VI.

    Tim Farron and Lib/Dem voter appeal appears to be a stumbling block, even for diehard remainers.

  15. Sorrel
    “I also liked that 7% of Lib Dem supporters (from 2015) were now in favour of voting for UKIP. Not what I would expect to see – but clearly it was observed.”

    I agree that it’s not intuitively obvious why people would switch between those two parties (either way). I think that there is a section of the public who don’t like either Labour or Conservative and so just vote for a protest party regardless of their actual policies.

  16. “I struggle to believe these extraordinary figures for the tories. They really don’t tally with my everyday experience”

    With respect, what on earth does your personal experience have to do with scientifically-conducted and sampled opinion polls? The whole point of opinion polls is to get away from personal experience.

  17. @ANDY JS @Allan C
    “Con 44% (+2)
    Lab 26% (-1)
    UKIP 13% (+1)
    LD 8% (-2)
    Green 4% (nc)”

    Deary me, that’s simply atrocious for Labour. 18 points behind. That is tied with the Mori poll of mid October (47–29) for the Tories biggest lead over Labour.

    44 to 26 would equal a majority in the 100-120 range on present boundaries.

    Has a government with such a wafer thin majority ever had a lead in the polls like this before? I can’t think of one.

  18. @AllanChristie:

    The trouble, as this site has taught me, is to think into the mind of the more casual voter.

  19. Allan Christie,

    On Bayesian grounds, I’m upweighting the increase in Lib Dem VI to an increase of 7/8%. Brexit has been a huge boon for them!

  20. Nick Name,

    It’s possible that there has been a shift from Labour to UKIP/Lib Dems and from UKIP/Lib Dems to the Tories. These changes don’t have to be direct.

  21. Say what you like about Theresa May, but she has a lot of guts to raise expectations for the Tories in Stoke.

    I can’t believe that the Tories expect to win, but maybe they have some internal polling that suggests that they’ll be a respectable second behind Labour? That would be a very good result for them and a big disappointment for UKIP.

  22. From @Candy’s highly selective figures in the previous thread, people clearly picked up the impression that the Pew Research Poll was good for Trump.

    In fact 39% approve, 56% disapprove of which 46% disapprove strongly doesn’t sound like much of a honeymoon to me!

    http://www.people-press.org/2017/02/16/presidential-approval-detailed-tables-february-2017/

  23. @BILL PATRICK

    TM is there to shore up the Tory vote so UKIP don’t win. She wants her best asset, JC, to stay in place until 2020 at least. 2025 would be preferred of course, unless she can swap him out for Abbott.

  24. @Guymonde

    My figures were not “highly selective” as I posted both the Repubican and Democrat figures.

    Here is my comment again:

    quote

    Approval among Conservative Republicans 91%

    Moderate Republicans 71%

    Moderate Dems 10%

    Liberal Dems 5%

    Among white voters his approval ratings are positive (49% approve, 46% disapprove).

    Based on the way the Republican vote is geographically distributed, if there was another election, Trump would win again, even though he may lose the popular vote again

    end quote

    Which part of that analysis did you disagree with, petal?

  25. @guymonde

    Quite, Trump has the worst approval ratings at this stage of the administration of any recent President and they seem to be getting worse.

  26. Carfrew
    “Well it was a bit naughty of Alec but many peeps get a bit tetchy at times. On the whole Alec is generally quite an asset to the site.”

    Agreed we all get tetchy at times. I also agree Alec is an asset to this site. We often cross swords and I clearly irritate him from time to time but I would not want to see him stop posting. I find his economic posts particularly interesting and thoughtful.

    “As is your good self, despite the fact you cannot see the problem with being critical of Alec’s ad hom while at the same time you seize on Ken’s ad hom about “losers” and the “institutionalised”, a provocation that seems to have quite emboldened Brexiteers!”

    I plead guilty, that’s very fair comment, but you must admit Ken is very funny and accurate at times.

    Somerjohn
    “Ah, the sublime confidence of the non-expert!”
    Fair comment of course, but the non expert can sometimes see things the experts cannot. I turned my whole portfolio into cash in 2006, taking substantial profits so I was cash rich when the crash came. This enabled me to pick up numerous bargains which are now showing substantial profits. Do you think a majority of economists did that ?

    BlueBob
    “What on earth has happened to this site, it has the same arguments repeated in every new thread.

    Two years really is not that long to wait to find out who was right or wrong.

    I totally agree agree with your opening sentence. However I do think it will take until 2025-2030 to see who was right and who was wrong.

    WB

    At least I bring up Rugby matters quite often. Looking forward to Saturday.

    Millie

    “But no-one in their right mind could describe the Government as popular.”

    Absolutley, the political world is rather weird at the moment.

  27. @Allan Christie
    Well, your analysis is a little lacking, but clearly the ICM poll is not good for LDems.

    I’d be less concerned about 8% from Opinium if I was a LDem activist – they always show LDems significantly lower than other pollsters; however ICM,although the second most negative polling company about LDems, tend to be closer to the mean.

    it wouldn’t entirely surprise me if they had dropped back a bit – the LDems have been out of the news for the last few weeks and they need voters to be reminded that they exist.

    We will have to see if this one poll becomes the start of a trend sufficient to overturn the previous twelve polls (excluding Opinium) that all listed LDems at 10% or more. Too early to say yet…

  28. @ Alan

    ‘If swathes of Lab go to DK, that will raise the Con VI once DK are removed from the analysis.’

    Great point .. well worth remembering.

  29. At the request of my pet whippet i have placed £20 on the tories to win both by -elections at 8-1.TM was in stoke. she must sniff a tight 3 way contest.

  30. To be precise, TM visited the Emma Bridgewater china factory rather than Stoke – probably a complimentary visit for the mugs she bought there.

    Her visit wasn’t that well timed as there was a leak this morning about the catastrophic financial state of the local hospital – governments tend to be blamed for these things.

    The Tories may come higher than expected in the by election nevertheless, and of course the by election is quite separate from the national polling.

  31. “showing Labour leads of seven or eight points rather than the double digit leads consistently reported by other companies”

    Freudian slip?

  32. S Thomas

    Well, you can calculate the odds as you put a bet on both by elections going for Labour if I remember correctly.

    Anyway, I would rather trust a Kuvasz than a whippet :-).

  33. @ Allan Christie

    “Personally, the UK should take the moral high ground and guarantee the rights of EU nationals already here.We have to remember that behind each EU statistic there is someone’s livelihood and wellbeing.”

    I agree – there is no need to stoop to the level of Donald Tusk!

  34. lazlo

    I have -so i have two bets now. With my luck it will be 1-1. and £40 down the Swanee

  35. @ToH

    “I plead guilty, that’s very fair comment, but you must admit Ken is very funny and accurate at times.”

    ———-

    I do have a regard for Ken, in fact you both share the trait of being prepared to share useful info. regardless or tribe or politics. It’s partly us having the science thing in common, but it’s also summat I tend to find amongst what you might call “pre-boomers” who grew up influenced by more of the wartime collaborative spirit.

    Ken can be witty, but I recall he complains rather when on the relieving end. Still, none of us is perfect…

  36. Can someone enlighten me – genuinely.

    The problem came to me as I was reading about the leak on Stoke’s hospital potential 100 million quid deficit.

    Now, in Poland and especially in Hungary, once the public revenue leaves the ministry of finance’s bank account ceases to be public money, so there is no accountability, and of course commercial secret (like how the Hungarian PM’s friend, business mentor, etc has managed to increase is personal wealth at 10 on the power of three in ten years), but I thought in a kind of democracy like in the U.K. (Complicated as in the case of the NHS the U.K. Is England) such figures come under the public spending transparency rules.

    Surely, apart from petty cash (if there is such a thing) there would be a software that would basically give real time data on anything in the NHS.

  37. @TOH – “I also agree Alec is an asset to this site.”

    Thank you.

    Sadly, according to a pre-budget leak in the Daily Telegraph, they want to privatise me.

  38. “regardless or tribe or politics” = regardless of someone’s tribe or politics

  39. @ Candy

    There’s an expression widely used which ends ‘stop digging’ to which I commend you.

    You claim “if there was another election, Trump would win again, even though he may lose the popular vote again”

    I don’t claim to be an expert on the American political scene but it would surprise me if you can win a majority with 39% approving and 56% disapproving o/w 46% strongly

  40. There has been a big plunge in the odds on the Tories winning Stoke. They have shortened in the last 24 hours from 33/1 to 8/1.

    UKIP are drifting out, and it seems that they may have lost momentum. Labour are still strong favourites, but the Tories could well finish second.

    It could finish Nuttall.

  41. Laszlo

    The hungarian PM’s friend who you quote clearly went to the Tony Blair Investment seminars.

    I dont think the stoke deficit is quite as high a £100 m or it will be worth more than Stoke itself.

  42. And now for something completely different:

    There’s been a lot of speculation about Trump’s mental health. If there is in fact something amiss there, a post at New Republic suggests that the cause could be – a form of syphilis.

    Frightening thought:

    “The symptoms of neurosyphilis are protean, varying widely from one individual to another. Commonly recognized symptoms include irritability, loss of ability to concentrate, delusional thinking, and grandiosity. Memory, insight, and judgment can become impaired. Insomnia may occur. Visual problems may develop, including the inability of pupils to react to the light. This, along other ocular pathology, can result in photophobia, dimming of vision, and squinting. All of these things have been observed in Trump. Dementia, headaches, gait disturbances. and patchy hair loss can also be seen in later stages of syphilis.”

    Also, T is known to have boasted about his promiscuity and sexual conquests in his youth – a time when syphilis was widespread in the USA.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/140702/medical-theory-donald-trumps-bizarre-behavior?utm_source=social&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=sharebtn

  43. @ Sea Change

    Abbott in charge after JC is too cruel, I must admit to chuckling at the thought of it though.

  44. @Guymonde

    Republican voters are more likely to vote than Dem ones. And the way they are geographically distributed means that they control more states.

    You are making the exact same mistake that people made before the election, when they looked at the headline vote and decided that Mrs Clinton was “87% certain to win”.

    She lost. It is not the popular vote that counts, you have to win each state. Piling up a lot of disapproving people in California means dip-squat when it comes to winning the presidency.

    P.S. You might want to watch the following interview with Professor Pildes of New York University to get an insight into what happened in the US election:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nV6PQSdkj4A

  45. saffer

    Crikey. I hope you have deep pockets or good lawyers!

  46. @Saffer

    Careful – it is pretty much impossible to diagnose someone from a distance. Though the press enjoy doing it, see the way they decided Gordon Brown had a mental illness (as far as I know he didn’t). It is a dangerous route to go down.

  47. @S Thomas
    Blair was only following in the footsteps of previous prime ministers.

    Thatcher’s boy became a multi-millionaire despite being barely bright enough to tie his shoe-laces because of his ‘advisory’ involvement in various large arms deals while mummy was at No 10.

    Oh, and don’t ask how John Major could afford a massive house in his early thirties on the back of a few years work as a junior in a bank followed by a few more as a junior MP – high fliers in both the main parties, especially the Tories, get lots of ‘help’…

  48. Carfrew

    Thanks.

    I’ve heard it said that the adult is formed before the child reaches seven, and certainly I would say that the war and immdeiate post war austerity, and the early death of my mother, which I mentioned the other day were two biggest factors in making me the person I am.

    There certainly was much more of a community spirit when I was young and not just among family friends and neighbours. I remember the local Bobby catching me scrumping when I was six. He gave me a good talking to, clipped me round the ear,but once he saw I was really sorry, he gave me a friendly pat on the shoulder and sent me home with a smile.

  49. Bigfatron

    I am just envious that i didnt receive my invitation to the Seminars. I cant have offered enough unconditional support to America to have been on the guest list

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