Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Evening Standard came out earlier today. Topline voting intention figures are CON 40%(-3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 13%(+2), UKIP 9%(+3). The Tory lead remains pretty steady (note that the increase in the UKIP vote is probably largely a reversion to the mean following an anomolous 6% last month).

Satisfaction ratings with the party leaders are plus 17 for Theresa May (53% are satisfied, 36% are disatisfied) and minus 38 for Jeremy Corbyn (24% satisfied and 62% disatisfied). That includes 22% of Tory voters who say that are “satisfied” with Corbyn’s leadership… I suspect they don’t mean that in a complementary way.

Nothing else has been published yet (MORI normally ask a few other questions, but I expect they’ve held them back to give the Standard another story), all the details so far are over here.

469 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 40, LAB 29, LD 13, UKIP 9”

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  1. More good news reported which will please all but the committed peddlers of doom and gloom here.
    “The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is likely to lower its forecast for public sector net borrowing for the current fiscal year, 2016-17. This was revealed in a report published on Monday (20 February) by EY ITEM Club, an economic forecasting group based in the UK
    The report said this forecast could be reduced by £3bn ($3.73bn) to around £65bn, amid stronger than expected tax receipts.
    Another highlight pointed out in the report was that the UK could see an upward revision to its GDP growth forecast. The OBR could increase this from 1.4% to 1.6-1.7%, amid the better-than-expected momentum in the country’s economy, the report said.” Source IBT

  2. I’ve just opened UKPR for an update on comments since my last visit, Sunday evening. I regret that I found it a most dispiriting experience.

    I am by now heartily sick of the endless, infantile arguing over Brexit. I like to visit for information and carefully reasoned argument, especially about polling, but as an extension, also about elections and electoral prospects. To go with that, a certain amount of speculation unsupported by facts is inevitable, but the degree of vitriol now being expressed in endlessly rehashing old ground is now becoming extremely unpleasant.

    I have strong views on the subject myself, and could name the posters here that I particularly dislike – but will not (there are culprits on both sides).

    Can we all please calm down?

  3. @Sea Change – “What would happen if we did this unilateral act of goodwill and then the EU refused the same for UK Citizens?”

    Well there is always the possibility that a Tory Prime minister could at last show some leadership and start to explain to the voters that sending back these people who work more than the average UK worker, and take fewer benefits and social spending than UK nationals would actually be damaging for the UK economy, increase our deficit, reduce the money available for the NHS, and harm our productivity.

    But probably not.

    @Pete B – I think you have some severe misconceptions about the impacts of tariffs and therefore the balance of power in negotiations on trade. If we have a deficit going into such talks, this means our position is weak – not strong.

    Yes, there is the isolated issue of which side gets more hurt by the tariffs, but even here, you are labouring under a misconception. It’s not so much the gross volumes, but the volumes as a proportion of total production that matters. The EU is, in relative terms, a far more important export market to us than we are to them, despite the disparity in gross numbers. A greater proportion of our GDP output would be impacted by potential tariffs on exports than the EU’s which is precisely why the deficit puts us in a weak position.

    The second factor is that you completely glide past the secondary impacts. The impact of inflation on consumers will lead to a slowing of the economy, which will be worse here than in the EU because a higher proportion of our consumables will be affected.

    It’s also highly likely that the trade barriers necessary in order to levy tariffs are going to harm all cross border trade. Finance in particular is going to become more complex, with the BCC warning that the estimated 3-5 days minimum lengthening of the time for exporters to get paid will significantly damage SME cash flow, which is the kind of issue that can bring down companies.

  4. Brexit is the eye of the storm, the centre around which all politics revolves. It has created an existential threat to both main parties.

  5. A timely piece from the Grunge – https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/20/divide-and-rule-tactics-could-leave-uk-without-deal-say-eu-politicians

    ““The benefits go to the UK only,” said Tomáš Prouza, the Czech minister for EU affairs. “There is a real danger that British politics, with all its whipped up resentments of Europe, will mean British negotiators are unable to compromise, and we will head for a crash-landing.”

    That view is shared in many national capitals. Elmar Brok, a German MEP and a close friend and political ally of Merkel, said the British government should not underestimate the strength of the EU’s resolve. He said colleagues had told him Britain was seeking to win over MEPs, but it would end in failure.

    “The British government tries to divide and rule,” he said. “They believe they can take members of parliament out of certain nations … to win support by dividing us. If they try to negotiate while trying to interfere in our side then we can do that too. We can make a big fuss over Scotland. Or Northern Ireland.””

  6. Oh dear I did very well keeping out of it yesterday. How unpleasant this site has become. A normally reasonably polite indivudual is now writing:-

    “There are some very stupid people out there.” about people who disagree with him.

    I have noticed that this sort of thing is very prevalent amongst people I would call bad losers. Ken got to the heart of it the other day. It really has created a “black hole” on this site.

    Good job I am looking forward to enjoying my emerald wedding anniversary with my dear wife on Friday. Have a good day I have work to do but may pop in later.

  7. TOH yesterday 10.16 a.m.

    Thank you for your sympathy, but you still seem determined to ignore the point I was making, which is that everyone knew from before the vote took place that no negotiations of any sort could or would take place before the triggering of Article 50 (because it is the triggering of the article which informs the EU that a member State wishes to leave), and for the UK government to try to change the rules after the game had already started seems to me to be sheer hypocrisy!

    So no! It is the UK government’s decision to wait nine months before triggering Article 50 and not any ‘decision’ by Angela Merkel or anyone else to follow the agreed rules which is the cause of the delay. And this is not ‘IMO’ but the simple fact.

    I wish you a happy day on your allotment.

  8. Saffer

    I sympathise with your despair about the tone of some posts on Brexit, but I think it’s inevitable that what’s by far the biggest political issue of he day will often dominate conversation here.

    I can imagine that in decades hence, assiduous Phd students will be mining the UKPR archive to track the currents of sentiment and argument underlying this seismic event in European history. They may even be ferreting away trying to establish who exactly was hiding behind those monikers: how many public figures enjoying the opportunity to say what they really think? I hope AW recognises this and takes steps to preserve the archive.

    But of course, you’re right. We could do with more discussion of polling matters. For instance, with a NI election just over a week away, I’d be interested to see more on that. And there’s just been a poll in France (IFAP? – something like that) showing Fillon slightly ahead of Macron and stabilising. But ultimately the posts on here reflect the interests of those who post: if we all stuck purely to polling, it would probably be a much less vibrant place.

  9. Patrickbrian – yesterday 1.04 p.m.

    Thank you for a very perceptive contribution.

  10. John B

    Thanks for posting. Obviously we continue disagree ans may was prepared to discuss it before triggering Art %0 but was denied by the EU. Thank you for being civil, as you always have been, unlike so many on this site as I was just pointing out. I notice T was in particularly fine form in that respect yesterday and typical of many on that side of the argument.

    Have a good day yourself.

  11. John B

    ……….. as May………., sorry about typing error. In a hurrey to go out.

  12. As usual this discredit polling organisation produce wildly inaccurate figures for UKIP and the LimpDims. … probably the other parties too. To interpret these polls it is worth comparing their forecasts for the last General Election with the actual result…

  13. Sam – yesterday 3.04 p.m.

    Many thanks for that excellent contribution.

  14. Candy – 4.49 p. m.

    ‘We’ve been in the EU for 41 years, and the only negotiating style that has worked has been Margaret Thatcher’s brutally combative one. All the rest of the PMs got walked over. If we’re taking a hard line it is because the Europeans have trained us to understand that it is the only thing that works.’

    And this is where we have our fundamental disagreement, I think. You obviously don’t see yourself as a European, for you refer to them in the third person, whereas I think of myself as a European and always refer to us in the first person.
    We in the UK are just as much Europeans as the Italians, the Germans, the Spanish or the Lithuanians. IMO.

    Now if you had referred to ‘the EU Commission’, we might have had a reasonable conversation. Even so, I would disagree with you, for whilst our tabloid gutter press is happy to flag up any EU decision which goes against the wishes of the UK government (though not necessarily against the wishes of the UK people, of course, such as safety at work etc.) they never talk about the thousands of occasions when the UK input has been listened to, appreciated and adopted into EU policy through negotiation.

    So given the choice between negotiation and Thatcher’s hystrionics, give me negotiation every time.

  15. Candy – 5.08 p.m. yesterday

    “rules are rules, if you fall foul it is your own fault”.

    Precisely my point to TOH about triggering article 50.
    As for your general approach, if your view is representative of the Tories in the south then God help us.

  16. Pete B – yesterday 9.48 p.m.

    ‘And why are you worried that Ireland will blame us? Who cares?’

    It’s that sort of arrogance which will do the UK a lot of harm.
    Do you not want to be on good terms with our nearest neighbour?

  17. While we have been concentrating on Brexit, there have been polling developments in Germany.

    The German centre-left SDP has a new candidate for federal chancellor, Martin Schulz, who is popular in Germany.

    From bumping along at about 20% and almost 15% behind the conservative CDU-CSU coalition, the SDP, according to the Pollytix.eu website, is now on a weighted rolling average of 30.3%, close to the CDU-CSU on 32.6%.

    (The SDP gain has been at the expense of all other parties, and could possibly push the centrist FDP below the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary representation for the second time in a row, but the elections are not until 24 September.)

    Whether electing a new leader in the run up to an election in the UK is a worthwhile strategy is something for others to decide upon – or not.

  18. @Robert Newark – 7.15 a.m.

    But if we are all c. 15% worse off because of the fall in the value of sterling, a growth rate of 1 – 1.5 % is hardly going to make up the difference, is ti?

    Not that I’m an economist, of course……..

  19. @ Hireton

    Thanks for the reply. I did know that Nissan operated JIT.

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