Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Evening Standard came out earlier today. Topline voting intention figures are CON 40%(-3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 13%(+2), UKIP 9%(+3). The Tory lead remains pretty steady (note that the increase in the UKIP vote is probably largely a reversion to the mean following an anomolous 6% last month).

Satisfaction ratings with the party leaders are plus 17 for Theresa May (53% are satisfied, 36% are disatisfied) and minus 38 for Jeremy Corbyn (24% satisfied and 62% disatisfied). That includes 22% of Tory voters who say that are “satisfied” with Corbyn’s leadership… I suspect they don’t mean that in a complementary way.

Nothing else has been published yet (MORI normally ask a few other questions, but I expect they’ve held them back to give the Standard another story), all the details so far are over here.


538 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 40, LAB 29, LD 13, UKIP 9”

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  1. First!

    Been waiting for this post all day.

    Poor Labour.

    Can anyone explain to me, please, what people see in Theresa May? Is it just a quasi-zero sum game versus Corbyn’s unpopularity?

  2. @Kester

    I’ve always rather liked May because, basically, she is serious. She has her weaknesses – don’t we all – but she comes across as a grown-up who is doing her best.

    She understands that trying to run the country, especially now, is a difficult, serious job and not some branch of the entertainment business like too many of her peers. And she understands that there are rarely easy answers to any of the country’s complex questions.

    I wouldn’t want her job for a gold pig, but God knows there isn’t anyone anywhere near better on offer.

    A lot of people remember we nearly had Leadsome. The country would be upside down and on fire by now if we did. As for Johnson, God give me strength.

  3. Good evening all from Frome in lovely Somerset. A UKPR first me, checked into the site from 3 different locations in one day.

    Okay back to polling. Not much to say on VI as I discussed that on the previous thread..however!!

    ” The historical contrasts look good for Theresa May, but much more alarming for Jeremy Corbyn. The Prime Minister is enjoying a better honeymoon at this stage than her two immediate predecessors, David Cameron and Gordon Brown. However, Mr Corbyn’s ratings as a Labour opposition leader almost 18 months in are closer to Michael Foot’s.”
    …………

    People tend to vote for strong leadership at GE’s. Labour have 3 years to get their leadership sorted, with or without old Corbyn.

    Some exciting stuff tonight…..

    Britain Elects [email protected] 2h2 hours ago
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    Seven council by-elections tonight: three LDem, two Lab, one Con, one UKIP

    Who will be top dogs tonight?

  4. Don’t we ever get leadership approval ratings for Tim Farron? I mean currently, he’s the man with all the oooooommmfff and jazz and all that.

  5. ALLAN CHRISTIE……Many happy returns of the day !! :-)

  6. KEN

    Cheers. I’m doing my rounds, visited my aunt earlier, now at my Grandparents and tomorrow head up to my parents.

  7. Re: May

    For the first few months of her time as PM there was an effort from those critical to paint May as out of her depth. These have faded away – and I think it is her general competence that is probably most appreciated. I don’t say ‘liked’ because she doesn’t come across as a particularly likeable person – but that isn’t always what is needed in a PM.

    53% satisfied is an excellent rating as it shows she is popular beyond party loyalties and an asset to her party. I can’t imagine any of the other candidates from last summer being nearly as successful in her position now.

  8. Re: May

    I agree entirely with Sorrel. I think of all the traits a party leader requires at this exact moment in time, May possesses a good spread of them.

    Everything is uncertain. People are fearful. The future looks opaque and troubling.

    What you want is serious, businesslike, brusque, matronly, unflappable.

    You don’t necessarily want affable, charming, “thousand points of light”, gushing, flippant.

    I have to say, by that measure Corbyn also has some of the right stuff, but it is outweighed by his apparent lack of grip. May is quite hard to accuse of that, given her reputation for being overbearing, well-briefed and interventionist.

  9. @Chris Riley – rather liked your last post on the previous thread.

    On this poll: Again, really poor for Labour, great for Cons. All the more so when you consider the background.

    Clearly Brexit is distorting normal politics, but I don’t think it’s having as much direct impact as some think. It is helping to draw the political focus away from other matters, which is not to Labour’s advantage, but even so, looking at the broad sweep of news coverage in recent weeks, it’s been remarkably dire for a sitting government in any normal circumstances.

    The economic news is mixed, with some negatives but more a sense of uncertainty, so that isn’t so far a particular negative for the government. The news on pretty much everything else has been dreadful. Prisons, social care, mental health provision and the NHS have all featured in some eyewateringly bad news coverage – yet the government remains at plus 40%+ and miles ahead of Labour.

    I think it is tempting to read into this that Brexit is suppressing normal politics, but I think that would be a mistake – in my view. Rather, I suspect that people know the situation is difficult, on many fronts, and some will see the government as culpable for some of these problems, but when they look at the alternative the choice appears clear.

    Both main parties should take heed, if this is an accurate reflection. Labour – clearly, and without any possible argument remaining now – are floundering under Corbyn, and are incapable of capitalising on the mounting crises we are experiencing. A change of leader is essential as a minimum, if they are to reverse their fortunes.

    For the Tories, complacency is a huge danger. With a half decent opposition I suspect we would by now have a government with a tiny majority in crisis, Brexit and all. Should Labour see sense, perhaps these polls will turn rather rapidly?

  10. @Sorrel – I also think that is a good account of how May is seen, but not necessarily how she actually is. The jury is still out on that.

    When all is said and done, governments will be judged on how the country is functioning. At present, the omens on that are not great.

  11. @Alec

    There are certainly dangers for the Tories. I suspect in some ways the bad news headlines are, for the moment, perversely increasing support for May’s government. When things are bad, you want a credible person to try and deal with them. Whether you hold them largely or partly responsible for the news in the first place becomes secondary.

    But people will, eventually, expect some delivery on that trust. 2017 will be a Very Big Year for May and Hammond. Some rabbits need to be produced, certainly on social care and the NHS. Prisons I am rather less sure of. To people in the know, and/or in the system, the crisis is acute. But the public have an odd view of prisons policy. Prison officers don’t attract much sympathy, even when they actually deserve it. And issues like overcrowding and lack of exercise and training in prisons – although very important to some of us – probably move the average voter very little.

  12. @Alec

    I suspect no jury has ever come back with a Not Guilty verdict on any Tory politician in the Court of Alec……

  13. @Neil A – odd last couple of posts. You agree almost entirely with what I say, then take a pop at me.

    Ce la vie, as they say.

  14. Britain Elects [email protected] 9m9 minutes ago
    More
    Failsworth East (Oldham) result:
    LAB: 58.4% (-7.3)
    CON: 25.4% (+1.6)
    UKIP: 11.7% (+11.7)
    GRN: 3.5% (-4.3)
    LDEM: 1.1% (-1.8) <<<<<<<<Lib/Dem bounce? Chuckle :-)

  15. Interesting reports from Copeland. May’s visit – originally billed as a sign of maximum Tory confidence – has apparently attracted some pretty negative local coverage. She declined to answer repeated questions about local maternity services and whether she would underwrite the Moorside nuclear development.

    Labour have pulled out all the emotional stops today with a ‘handwritten’ letter from a Mum talking of dead babies if the Tories win, so it’s all the fun of the fair up there. Possible signs of hope for Labour there, alongside the UKIP travails in Stoke?

  16. Uh oh Kippers…. <((((< It's a kipper.

    Britain Elects [email protected] 1m1 minute ago
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    Green GAIN Lydbrook & Ruardean (Forest of Dean) from UKIP.

  17. Britain Elects [email protected] 1m1 minute ago
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    Lydbrook & Ruardean (Forest of Dean) result:
    GRN: 35.3% (+27.9)
    CON: 24.3% (+6.2)
    LAB: 22.7% (-2.0)
    UKIP: 11.1% (-12.2)
    LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

  18. Lydbrook & Ruardean (Forest of Dean) result: GRN: 35.3% (+27.9) CON: 24.3% (+6.2) LAB: 22.7% (-2.0) UKIP: 11.1% (-12.2) LDEM: 6.6% (+6.6)

    Green gain from UKIP!

  19. @AC – you missed – Liberal Democrat HOLD Burton (East Staffordshire).

  20. Apologies for rare FPT from me in answer to Ken as have been out.

    I thought you would understand my use of irony, stereotyping and over-simplification to highlight what I saw as an unfair dig at graduates in your earlier post.

    Perhaps my post was a tad Arid and the tongue not visibly in my cheek.

    Actually my son who is doing a maths degree wants to go in to the financial sector.

  21. ALEC

    I was waiting for the result so we can see the percentage of each party.

  22. They are very slow with the actual percentages but Labour hold St Thomas’s (Dudley).

  23. Ouch!! Bollington First GAIN Bollington (East Cheshire) from Conservative.

    TM’s position is now untenable. She must go. ;-)

  24. Britain Elects [email protected] 1m1 minute ago
    More
    Bollington (East Cheshire) result:
    BFIR: 50.6% (+13.4)
    CON: 17.2% (-13.4)
    LAB: 12.9% (-8.6)
    LDEM: 10.7% (-0.2) <<<<<<<Lib/Dem bounce? ;-)
    GRN: 8.7% (+8.7)

  25. Ah!!

    Britain Elects [email protected] 3m3 minutes ago
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    As numbers appear deceiving, Bollington is a multi-member ward. Con won second placed seat in 2015

  26. Britain Elects [email protected] now54 seconds ago
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    St Thomas’s (Dudley) result:
    LAB: 60.8% (+3.4)
    UKIP: 26.7% (+4.2)
    CON: 10.3% (-5.4)
    GRN: 2.2% (-2.3)

    Good result for Labour…Corby probably staying for an extra week.

  27. Surely if those figures are right, Green gain from Labour not UKIP?

    @Alec

    Don’t think of it as having a pop. Think of it as a wry reflection on your huge enthusiasm for the occupants of the office of Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party.

    You were similarly downbeat about the electoral appeal of Mssr Cameron. I find it hard to imagine you saying the words “The Tory leader is doing really well” in almost any circumstances….

  28. ALEC

    Finally the results .Lib/Dem hold..

    Britain Elects [email protected] 38s39 seconds ago
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    Burton (East Staffordshire) result:
    LDEM: 52.7% (+5.4) <<<<<<<<????
    LAB: 24.7% (-5.2)
    UKIP: 11.7% (+11.7)
    CON: 10.9% (-11.9)

  29. NEIL A

    You might be right and they have got the figures mixed up.
    Think there are a couple of results still to come in. I’m off to my kip.

    Here’s the link to Britain elects with the results in so far.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects

  30. Uh oh..just seen this..

    Britain Elects [email protected] 2m2 minutes ago
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    Residents for Uttlesford GAIN Elsenham & Henham (Uttlesford) from Liberal Democrat (x2).

    I’m saying nothing. :-)

  31. Any rumours about the outcome of the two by-elections?

  32. Britain Elects [email protected]
    More
    Elsenham & Henham:
    RES 59.3% (+32.1)
    LDEM 22.5% (-24.2)<<<<<<<Lib/Dems have imploded
    CON 10.0% (-11.0)
    UKIP 4.8% (+4.8)
    LAB 2.8% (-2.3)
    GRN 0.6% (+0.6)
    Top vote method

  33. JIM JAM…..Sorry for not decoding the nuance in your comment, emotional antennae slightly out of sync.
    I’m pleased to hear that your lad is considering a career in finance, I don’t regret a moment of mine, from employee to employer to happily retired, wouldn’t change a thing.
    A bit of advice from an old hand though, I am a country sports enthusiast, and during my activities tend to meet others from finance associated professions, law, insurance, consultancy, etc., the most relaxed and least stressed out of all are those from the insurance industry. Always good to have an option. ;-)

  34. One last post before I get booted off this site for spamming.

    From tonight’s results, it looks like the LibDem juggernaut (or let’s call it the Lib/Dem Sinclair C5) has stuttered. Not impressed…

  35. Trump and the press corps giving good theatre tonight. :-)

    Night all.

  36. @Chris Riley @Sorrel @Neil

    I’m in agreement with May so far. She has been quietly studious and serious. There is a return to Cabinet Government after the “PM Sofa Decision” government of the last 20 years.

    She’s the best suited Captain for sailing into probable squalls considering what’s on offer in either of the main parties in my view.

    @Robin “Contend all you want, but CO2 is a poison. Just because plant’s use it for photosynthesis doesn’t mean it isn’t dangerous for humans. Irrespective of levels of O2, An atmosphere containing 10% CO2 will kill you in 30 minutes. 3% is regarded by safety organisations as unsafe.”

    Using that kind of logic Oxygen is a poison as it will kill you if you are exposed to 45%+ of it over time. Co2 is vital for plant life (and thus our lives) and is part of our respiration system. Saying it is a poison and a pollutant is flat out wrong and is a smokescreen for real biosphere poisons that are killing life in huge quantities.

    http://droyer.web.wesleyan.edu/PhanCO2(GCA).pdf
    Life has flourished on Earth even during times where Co2 was 10 Times what it is today.

  37. ALLAN CHRISTIE says: “Good evening all from Frome in lovely Somerset.”

    I wonder what you thought of Frome, where I lived for twenty years until last July.

    I like the way you apply the adjective “lovely” to the county, not to the grotty town.

    The Frome Town Council (TC) officially has no party-political councillors, but the “Independents For Frome” (IFF), who made a clean sweep of all the seats in the last TC election, have a strong Greenish flavour. In the TC election, the Greens fielded no candidates, and in return the IFF backed the Green candidates in the District Council (DC)elections. So the Greens have three DC seats and the IFF have total control of the TC, as a result of cleverly manipulating the FTPT system. (It stinks, but it’s not illegal.)

    In a recent Lincolnshire parliamentary by-election the Greens didn’t field a candidate, supporting an Independent anti-hospital-closing candidate instead. In the Richmond by-election, most parties didn’t field candidates, but locally made their support for other parties’ candidates clear.

    I wonder to what extent such dubious local deals likely to make opinion polls less relevant in future.

  38. @ PEADAR RUADH

    Interesting insight to Frome politics. I heard John Harris taking about his home town of Frome in glowing terms the other night. He described it as a ‘Flat pack democracy’ and appeared to think that this sort of local initiative was the future of politics. Presumably, what you describe is the root of his enthusiasm for a ‘progressive alliance’.

    http://www.flatpackdemocracy.co.uk

    Given that he had just given a talk about immigrant EU workers in the Fens, without once mentioning the political and international conditions which have led to their being there .. or to that of the refugee community… I was not much inclined to a similar enthusiasm for his politics or his judgement.

    Your use of the terms ‘dubious’ and ‘stinks’, suggests that you think that the local Frome deal takes away a democratic choice for the electorate. Wasn’t Churchill supposed to have said ‘Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.’? On the face of it, I agree .. and if it catches on could make more than opinion polls less relevant in the future.

  39. I think too much weight is applied to handful of local election results. There are very often based on very local factors, nothing to do with national politics. It’s like trying to guess the forecast for wind across the UK by looking at what’s happening on seven random roof tops.

    The way to view them is by looking at a lot of results over a period and look for broad trends. Even then, they are only a small part of the whole electoral picture.

    On the point @Peadar Ruadh and @Syzygy makes, people are quite entitled to use tactics to get around what FPTP delivers. If there wasn’t a lot of people wanting to get away from the bias that FPTP offers, the plan would not work.

    Of course, if people were voting using a proportionate system, that mean people could vote how they really want to vote. Mind you, under any system, people will act to ensure the system delivers what they want.

    That’s that’s the trouble with people and rules…rules are made to be broken, or at least applied in way to confer the most advantage.

  40. Microsoft blaming Brexit for a 15% price increase. Where is Candy and her army? I thought they weren’t going to allow this?

  41. @Sorrel

    Worth mentioning that those undermining May (and Hammond, who is, if anything, even more impressive as Chancellor) were usually Tories. You get 10 senior Tories in a room and 7 of them will think that they should be leader and the other 3 will have no leadership ambitions, but nevertheless think none of the 7 should be either. And there is nowt in politics more bitter than a thwarted Tory.

  42. @Pete

    At work we are burdened with Office 365 (now cloud based).

    Everyday IT are re-installing the software, as someone’s computer has stopped function correctly because of of software issues. I think our IT guys would quite happily through Microsoft in the bin.

    Anyone really concerned with the price of Microsoft Office etc could just dump it and an open source version instead, for example Libre Office.

    It’s free!

  43. Correction

    @Pete

    At work we are burdened with Office 365 (now cloud based).

    Everyday IT are re-installing the software, as someone’s computer has stopped functioning correctly because of software issues. I think our IT guys would quite happily throw Microsoft in the bin.

    Anyone really concerned with the price of Microsoft Office etc could just dump it and use an open source version instead, for example Libre Office.

    It’s free as well!

  44. @Allan

    Can’t speak for the other areas, but I know Bollington, and the winning candidate is a popular ex-Mayor who has won on an independent platform several times. Her and her partner organise the local arts festival amongst other things.

    The by-election was because a local Tory councillor resigned over an extremely unpopular cut to school bus services that was handled remarkably badly even for this most arrogant of councils. It’s one of of a number of imaginative ways that Cheshire East council are deploying in an apparent bid to make the whole area much less safe Conservative than it has been historically.

  45. Alec

    “No he doesn’t! He pulls people up when they are factually incorrect, and expects others to pull him up when he falls foul of basic factual correctness.”

    I would suggest you need the words “ he thinks” between “when” and “are” .

    The interesting thing is that you did not produce a single piece of evidence to support your views. So much for the forensic analysis that some like to talk about. In fact there were only three pieces of evidence in the whole debate last evening.

    Alan produced a simplistic video about global warming.

    I produced a list of scientists who do not go along with current “orthodoxy” which you instantly belittled because it did not fit your views.

    Sam produced a video by Judy Curry which seemed to confirm some of the doubts I have.

  46. Chris Riley
    As you kindly posted to me I though it polite to reply.
    “There are some very good rules to good netizenship that I try to abide by”
    I was a bit bemused by “netizenship”, at first I thought you meant “citizenship” but it cannot be that as you did not mention upholding democracy and the law of the land. So what did you mean?
    On the points you raise:
    – check primary sources –I would add if necessary
    – don’t talk outside what you *know* to be your expertise. Don’t agree at all, if we all did that we would never learn anything new.
    -– if you do talk outside your expertise (which for most people is rather narrow), there is a good chance you’re wrong. Agree at least some times.
    – – never assume that if you say a thing and your ground is not solid, that there isn’t someone who knows more about it than you do who might be reading, and they might ask you about it. No problem with that, I welcome it as is apparent from my posts.
    – the real experts on an issue know that they don’t know everything.. Very much the point of the discussion.
    – and accept that they might be right and you might be wrong. Always happy to when I finally agree, but not before which I suggest is perfectly reasonable.
    – some people do know more than you do. Absolutely, many do.
    – – if you think you’re the smartest person in the room/messageboard, you almost certainly aren’t. Never have done.
    Hope that answers all your points.

  47. Odd set of Council by election results last night, don’t seem to show anything of real interest. The Ipsos Mori poll continues the bad news for Labour.

    Have a good day all, I’m off to do some more biological recording. I may even spot some of the effects of global warming, who knows?

  48. @TOH – “I would suggest you need the words “ he thinks” between “when” and “are” .”

    Thanks, but no thanks.

    I didn’t ‘belittle’ anything you produced yesterday – I just pointed out how very few on the relevant parts of the list were climate scientists, and that the list is a vanishly small proportion of researchers compared to those who support climate change theroy. Alongside that, I raised the point without elaboration that there are some questionable names on the list.

    People like Timothy Ball, who claimed to be a climate scientist but was actually a geography professor, who retired in 1996 – well before a whole slew of observational evidence backing up climate change was published. He misrepresented his own position, initiated legal actions against other researchers which he was forced to withdraw, and was forced to apologise publicly after others took legal action against him for some of his claims.

    Then there is Arthur B Robinson. He stood for congress four times for the Republicans, and is a noted researcher – in medicine – specialising in preventing ageing. He runs a newsletter called ‘Access to Energy’ where he claims radiation is good for us. He has no scientific training or publication record on the topic of climate change.

    You could look at Khabibullo Abdussamatov, an astro physicist. He thinks solar radiation is causing the current bout of warming, a view contradicted by the mainstream, where variations in solar intensity have been very well measured and accounted for over the last 100 years that he focuses on. Like Ball, he has close links to the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank of the type I mentioned previously.

    They worked with Phillip Morris in the 1990’s to try and debunk the idea that second hand tobbacco smoke affects non smokers, again, completely against established science. They paid for an advertising campaign in 2012 using figures like the Unabomber, Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden above captions supporting global warming, with the strap line – “the most prominent advocates of global warming aren’t scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen.”

    Now, I just picked these three names from the list you supplied completely randomly, and these are the only three names I’ve looked at (which I did before I responded last night). They do fit the well known (and very well researched) pattern of climate change denial, however.

    You, by contrast, have the temerity to have a go at others for not producing evidence, when the evidence you yourself produce appears to entirely back up the case being made against you. Perhaps you didn’t research your own evidence sufficiently?

    IMO.

  49. Interesting to see the Boy Blair back on the stump today.

    It will be interesting if there are wobbles on Brexit to see how the leavers will argue against further democratic engagement. Love him or loathe him, Blair is a very good political operator, and I don’t think his intervention should be dismissed lightly.

    On May – slightly baffled by her statement today that she doesn’t want to ‘cherry-pick’ on the terms of Brexit.

    That’s odd, as surely cherry-picking means trying to keep the best bits. It’s like saying ‘we intend to cut off our nose to spite our face’.

  50. One rather wonders if Blair is sufficiently de-toxified to be an asset to a political campaign these days. I suspect not.

    Certainly having him in the trench is going to pick a few scabs in the Labour party and probably won’t help it reach a consensus on how to approach Brexit.

    On May, well there has been sustained criticism of the UK for its alleged attitude to negotiations, with vague suggestions that if only we were more collegiate, friendly and consensual we would do better with our EU friends. Maybe her statement is an attempt to signal that she isn’t going to be oppositional when it comes to their repeated “we’re not negotiating yet but here is our unshakeable position” statements that we cannot cherry-pick.

    I was a little surprised when the UK government conceded that membership of the Single Market wasn’t possible, rather than taking a position that they would try and negotiate to alter the terms of membership to exclude unlimited free movement. I saw that too as in indication of a desire to be constructive and non-oppositional.

    One theory might be that given the very short space of time available for negotiations, she doesn’t want to waste months posturing over unattainable goals, and is focused on trying to ensure that a workable trade arrangement can be sketched out by 2019. Almost everyone agrees that this is either very difficult, practically impossible (due to the timescale) or literally impossible (because of a strict interpretation of the A50 wording, suggesting that trade talks have to start after exit and not during the exit negotiations).

    Getting wiggle room from the EU on a trade agreement seems to me to be overwhelmingly the most important foreign policy goal facing the government in this parliament. In fact, probably more important than any other political issue full stop.

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