Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Evening Standard came out earlier today. Topline voting intention figures are CON 40%(-3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 13%(+2), UKIP 9%(+3). The Tory lead remains pretty steady (note that the increase in the UKIP vote is probably largely a reversion to the mean following an anomolous 6% last month).

Satisfaction ratings with the party leaders are plus 17 for Theresa May (53% are satisfied, 36% are disatisfied) and minus 38 for Jeremy Corbyn (24% satisfied and 62% disatisfied). That includes 22% of Tory voters who say that are “satisfied” with Corbyn’s leadership… I suspect they don’t mean that in a complementary way.

Nothing else has been published yet (MORI normally ask a few other questions, but I expect they’ve held them back to give the Standard another story), all the details so far are over here.


538 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 40, LAB 29, LD 13, UKIP 9”

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  1. What on earth has happened to this site, it has the same arguments repeated in every new thread.

    Two years really is not that long to wait to find out who was right or wrong.

  2. @ Blue Bob

    I understand entirely how you feel. I keep trying to change the subject here to no avail.
    I think it’s a bit like my friends and I who love Rugby, it appears we are unable to get the last word on the last match with the constant use of the phrase “and another thing” by each of us being the only point of agreement. The problem is whoever is wrong will not admit anyway.

  3. WB

    Anthony could always introduce a similar rule to the one he applied during the run up to the indyref.

    “Commenting on Brexit is only allowed on threads bearing the UK Union Flag on the banner.”

  4. WB & Blue Bob

    I suspect part of the reason is there are a few on here who chirp up intentionally to keep the ball rolling, usually followed by mass back slapping by other people on “their side”.

    Amazing what a few contentious statements can do.

  5. Oldnat

    I’d prefer “Commenting on Brexit is only allowed on threads bearing a one horned, one eyed, flying purple people eater on the banner.”

    We don’t see too many of those.

  6. Alan

    I’d prefer “Commenting on Brexit is only allowed on threads bearing a one horned, one eyed, flying purple people eater on the banner.”
    We don’t see too many of those.

    He’s too busy in Stoke. Or is it Bolton?

  7. So Stoke?? What do you think, low turnout, Labour win? Has Nuttall saved Corbyn and will UKIP have another leader soon?

  8. iCM poll

    my 3-1 bet on 2 labour victories is looking precarious. the whippet is not happy. He wants me to lay the bet off to guarrantee him the promised slap up meal out of the winnings.

    Tories at 44% !

  9. BLUEBOB

    @”What on earth has happened to this site,”

    Brexititis. A condition akin to that described in the film Groundhog Day-but without the funny bits.

    By Election Results soon though :-)

  10. New ICM poll:

    Con 44% (+2)
    Lab 26% (-1)
    UKIP 13% (+1)
    LD 8% (-2)
    Green 4% (nc)

  11. stoke

    The whippet is urging me to bet on 2 tory victories now . I wish he would make up his mind.

  12. Wonder who is doing this?-any clues Anthony?

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-pays-secret-opinion-9851664

    Doesn’t he believe the normal Opinion Polls?

  13. ANDY JS

    Good grief!

  14. @BlueBob 12.31

    I beg to disagree.

    Two years is an awfully long time to find out whether your wife, who does not earn enough to qualify for automatic residence qualification, is going to be deported!

  15. Applying the ICM poll to Stoke Central (which is a bit silly of course):

    Lab 34%
    Con 29%
    UKIP 23%
    LD 4%
    Green 4%

  16. Colin

    Labour now denied it. But they were negotiating with one of the polling companies (it names starts with B :-)) indeed. Whether the particular question (Corbyn’s leadership) would have been on it – who knows.

    It was also meant to be a big sample thing (reminds me to Anthony’s previous post :-)).

    ——-

    I think Labour will get Stoke, especially as it seems that some UKIP supporters caught – they photoshopped some pictures (not the Bolton one).

  17. @TOBY EBERT

    “But as a democrat first and foremost, I can’t because: parliament gave the electorate as a whole the power to decide whether to stay in or come out and the electorate said come out. That’s the end of it really, except in the following unlikely scenario: economic circumstances and/or govt mishandling change the mood in the country (measured by polling!) to such an extent that politicians simply feel they have to give the people another chance to agree or disagree.

    As it happens, this is what Tony Blair is proposing.”

    Not quite sure what you mean. Just because the electorate voted by a slight majority to come out it doesn’t necessarily follow that there should never be a second referendum. Just as the 1975 referendum was superseded by the 2016 one, it would perfectly above board to have a third one.
    But there is a deeper issue here – should referendums be held at all on issues such as EU memebership? It seems to me that both the 1975 and 2016 referendums were held not for some arcane reason concerning democratic principles etc but because of internal divisions within the party of government at the time. I believe a referendum should only be held if parliament is deadlocked on an important issue, not in order to heal a party’s internal splits.
    In my view, the recent referendum was an act of political vandalism on a complex issue that most people do not have the depth of knowledge to express an opinion on. We live in a parliamentary democracy, not a direct one, and the people elect representatives whose job it is to be informed and educated about important issues. It is not for the people at large to make important decisions, but parliament.

  18. “Two years is an awfully long time to find out whether your wife, who does not earn enough to qualify for automatic residence qualification, is going to be deported”

    ————–

    Well yes, This failure to deport peeps’ wives quick enough is yet another thing Brexiteers seem to have little answer for as yet…

  19. @Colin

    “Doesn’t he believe the normal Opinion Polls?”

    ——–

    Well it’s possible some might be asking questions that help some parties more than others…

  20. Some interesting polling from the USA about Trump:

    http://www.people-press.org/2017/02/16/presidential-approval-detailed-tables-february-2017/

    Approval among Conservative Republicans 91%

    Moderate Republicans 71%

    Moderate Dems 10%

    Liberal Dems 5%

    Among white voters his approval ratings are positive (49% approve, 46% disapprove).

    Based on the way the Republican vote is geographically distributed, if there was another election, Trump would win again, even though he may lose the popular vote again.

  21. Andy JS
    Thanks for the poll details. Another one without much change. It just reinforces the current trends – Tories over 40%, Labour mid-twenties, UKIP usually 12-13 and Libdems 8-10.

    It doesn’t look as though UKIP are going to disappear any time soon. If they can put together and publicise a raft of popular measures on subjects other than Europe they just might become a permanent force.

  22. Good afternoon all from a very mild rural Hampshire.

    Britain Elects [email protected] 28m28 minutes ago
    More
    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 44% (+2)
    LAB: 26% (-1)
    UKIP: 13% (+1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    (via ICM / 17 – 19 Feb)

    This is an extremely tragic poll for the Lib/Dems and an extremely good one for the Tories.

    This is the second poll in a row to show the Lib/Dems back on 8%. So, since their car crash election result back in 2015 and based on both the recent national polls the Lib/Dems have increased their standings by ½%. But you know what!….I’m feeling rather charitable so I’m going to round up the Lib/Dem increase from their 2015 election result from ½% to ¾%. That should keep BIGFATRON happy. ;-)

  23. @ToH

    “I have noticed that this sort of thing is very prevalent amongst people I would call bad losers. Ken got to the heart of it the other day. It really has created a “black hole” on this site.”

    ——————

    Well it was a bit naughty of Alec but many peeps get a bit tetchy at times. On the whole Alec is generally quite an asset to the site.

    As is your good self, despite the fact you cannot see the problem with being critical of Alec’s ad hom while at the same time you seize on Ken’s ad hom about “losers” and the “institutionalised”, a provocation that seems to have quite emboldened Brexiteers!

  24. Candy
    Interesting polling on Trump. From the media hysteria one would think he was the most hated man in history. This is a useful correction to that impression.

  25. COLIN
    ANDY JS
    “Good grief!”
    ____________

    Sometimes the smallest comments can have the biggest impact lol ;-)

  26. @ToH

    Hit submit too soon… Meant to say that Brexit is so all-embracing it’s likely to occasionally result in some passions raised, and because all-embracing impossible to ignore, whether peeps are bad losers or bad winners or whatever.

  27. @Pete B

    I think the hysteria might be causing an equal and opposite reaction amongst the “silent majority”.

    They shouldn’t have demonstrated the day after the inauguration because it gave the impression that they were demonstrating against democracy itself. They should have waited and picked their fights, and chose issues where there was bipartisan support to put max pressure on.

    Also, lots of Americans have a low opinion of the CIA, FBI and so on, especially those who have had property confiscated by the FBI under their sinister forfeiture rules even though nothing has been proved in a court of law. And then there are those who have been fitted up by them and those who have been killed by them. A POTUS who dislikes these unaccountable agencies is bound to be given the benefit of the doubt. Dems defending those agencies seem more elitist than ever.

  28. Can someone help; what is the connection UKIP, Stoke Central and Bolton.
    I feel I have either missed something important or there is an in-joke of which I am in the out group (no Brexit allusion intended).

  29. P.S. Those who want to know more about civil-asset forfeiture, see the following excellent article:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/05/the-glaring-injustice-of-civil-asset-forfeiture/392999/

    It is grim reading. If that kind of thing happened here there would be outrage.

  30. CANDY

    “Among white voters his approval ratings are positive (49% approve, 46% disapprove)”

    “Based on the way the Republican vote is geographically distributed, if there was another election, Trump would win again, even though he may lose the popular vote again”
    ____________

    Quite extraordinary considering the witchhunt CNN (Counterfeit News Network) and just about all the rest of the American MSM are carrying out against him.

    It also shows that all them plastic botox Celebs standing up on stage and wailing the rafters off is having little or no impact on The Donald.

  31. NEW POST

  32. Laszlo:

    “One rarely sees such a self-inflicted implosion. Although Thursday is still a few days away”

    Indeed.

    I find it astonishing that in the face of zero evidence from either opinion polling or actual by-election polls, that they are making any progress at all in gaining support since the last GE, UKIP are still promoting the idea that they can win seats from Labour. The main plank in their argument in Stoke seems to be that Paul Nuttall
    is just the man to win over working class voters (his reported desire to privatise the NHS notwithstanding). Even if that were so, the steady stream of negative news about him personally is really not what a serious candidate wants in any election.

    What struck me in an extended Radio 4 report at lunchtime, is that UKIP response to the resignations seems to have been that this was understandable, because they had come under intense pressure from unhappy locals. As clear an indication as one could want, that this unhappiness runs deep.

    In a few more days, we’ll have the answer: is Nuttall indeed the man to lead UKIP’s promised breakthrough into Labour’s Northern heartland, or not?

    If the latter, I see there are already odds being offered on Farrage’s chances of being UKIP’s next new leader – yet again.

  33. Yet another poll indicating a Tory landslide in 2020.

    But no-one in their right mind could describe the Government as popular.

    Corbyn, I think will go very shortly, not because he is under any particular pressure, but because he is essentially a decent man, and he must know that he is a massive liability for his party.

    Nuttall may also go, if as expected, he loses Stoke. That could make Ukip’s future more than questionable.

    Farron is also coming under the spotlight, as Liberal local successes have not developed into any significant improvement in national VI. He speaks knowledgeably enough, but he lacks gravitas, and perhaps that is what the country wants.

    Blair and Mandelson have surfaced again ,but look utterly irrelevant. It is impossible to take them seriously.

    In this sea of mediocrity and bad memories, May is looking calm and sensible, and is clearly trying her best in difficult circumstances. That is the only explanation for the current state of the polls.

  34. @WB

    “Can someone help; what is the connection UKIP, Stoke Central and Bolton.”

    UKIP were publicising what claimed to be a pic of an enthusiastic band of activists campaigning in Stoke. Some eagle eyed observers noted however, that comparison with another picture available online, clearly showed that the pic was in fact taken in Bolton.

    The person responsible for publishing the picture later admitted an error – claiming that the pic was in fact taken in Bolton, immediately before departing for Stoke.

  35. @Tancred

    With respect, it doesn’t matter whether you think that referendums are appropriate methods to decide whether to be in the EU or not. It only matters that Parliament did think it was appropriate. Parliament is sovereign, and it handed over it’s power to decide this issue to the people via a referendum.

  36. The Other Howard,
    “sterling has been seriously overvalued for a good many years and a correction was needed”

    Sterling has been falling in value for 100 years. I suspect this reflects the real worth of the UK, both in money and that mystery characteristic ‘sovereignty’.

  37. Alec,
    “The end point of most leave posters on here appears to be, as Blair said, the wish to deny completely the opportunity for leave voters to change their minds if and when these circumstances come to pass.”

    It isnt just on here. The entire Leave campaign now is aimed at preventing the public change its mind, and if it does, then prevent it putting that into effect. I have no idea how successfull they will be in this, but we do live in interesting times.

    One has to conclude that leave believe there is a significant chance that this situation will come about, otherwise they wouldnt be bothering to do this. That Leave believe Brexit will go bad in turn helps to convince me this will be the case. However, it isnt inconsistent with the principle thay have put forward from time to time, that independence is more significant to them than economics. Presumably they have read the same polls I have, which say the public does not share this view but voted for its own economic benefit.

  38. ““Not that I’m an economist, of course……..”
    If you were you would know that sterling has been seriously overvalued for a good many years and a correction was needed.”
    @The Other Howard February 20th, 2017 at 10:19 am

    Wow!

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