ComRes have a poll in Sunday’s Independent and the Sunday Mirror. Most interestingly, it found that people agreed by 45% to 39% that John Bercow was right to refuse to invite Donald Trump to address the Commons, but also that people thought by 47% to 37% that the Queen should meet Donald Trump if he visits the country. As we’ve already seen elsewhere, the British public have little sympathy for Donald Trump’s immigration policy (33% think he was right, 52% think he was wrong) though it’s worth noting that the question wording went considerably wider than Trump’s actual policy (ComRes asked about halting immigration from “Muslim-majority” countries in general, whereas Donald Trump’s policy deals with seven specific countries they claim have an issue with terrorism or vetting).

The poll also had voting intention figures of CON 41%, LAB 26%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%, GRN 4%. This is the first ComRes voting intenton poll since way back in June 2016 – after one of the poorer performing polls in the EU referendum (the final ComRes poll had Remain eight points ahead), they paused their voting intention polls while they conducted a review into their methods. They have now recommenced voting intention polls with – as far as I can tell – no changes to their pre-referendum methods. ComRes’s view appears to be that the referendum was an exceptional event, and while the turnout model they adopted after the polling errors of 2015 worked badly there, it worked well at the London mayoral election, so is being retained for Westminster polls. For better or for worse, the ComRes results seem to be very much in line with those from other companies, with a Conservative lead in the mid-teens.

Full tabs for the ComRes poll are here.

While I’m here, I should also mention a BMG Scottish poll that came out at the start of the week (I’ve been laid low with a heavy cold). Voting intention in a second independence referendum stood at YES 49%(+3.5%), NO 49%(-3.5%). This is the lowest lead for NO that any Scottish Indy poll has recorded since the EU referendum. This was interpreted by the Herald as a response to Theresa May’s announcement of her negotiating stance on Brexit. I think that is somewhat premature – so far we’ve had two Scottish polls conducted since May’s speech, a Panelbase poll showing a very small (and not statistically significant) movement towards NO and a BMG poll showing a somewhat larger (but still barely significant) movement towards YES. In short, there is nothing yet that couldn’t be normal sample variation – wait for the next few polls on attitudes towards Scottish independence before concluding whether there is or is not any movement. Full tabs are here


325 Responses to “ComRes/Indy/Sunday Mirror – CON 41, LAB 26, LD 11, UKIP 11”

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  1. AC
    My comments re-Yougov are not waffle but based on facts which you might care to check for yourself. I have no need to carry out detailed research such as you suggest for the simple reason that I monitor ALL the polling companies – which is why I have made the comments above.
    Do you contest my assertion that no other polling company is showing a decline in the Labour vote over the last 5/6 months? If you do, perhaps you could provide details.
    Moreover, I am a member of the Yougov survey panel.

  2. @Danny

    I should add, that really, there can be some self-correction elements to some other causes of inflation, it’s just that they may take a while to kick in. Thus, if import costs rise due to currency falls, for some things people might start choosing home-grown versions, or substitute something else.

    Same thing happened after the oil price shocks of the seventies. Gradually we reduced our dependence on oil, as did other countries, e.g. Japan favoured nuclear. So when oil prices increased again some years ago, we weren’t as badly affected. And it didn’t necessarily hurt that we then had our own oil. But it took some years to switch to other energy sources…

  3. @GUYMONDE

    “Perhaps we can arrange for Holland, Ireland etc to be expelled from the ICC. That’ll learn them.”

    ————-

    As long as we can still recruit their players to play for us. I don’t think we’ve done that much with Holland yet but we need to keep our options open.

  4. @Danny

    Another adjustment to the impact of energy costs is that over time, industry has become more efficient…

  5. “When we get out of the glass bottle of our ego and when we escape like the squirrels in the cage of our personality and get into the forest again…”

    ———-

    Squirrels abound…

  6. @Carfrew “there can be some self-correction elements to some other causes of inflation, it’s just that they may take a while to kick in”
    Twas ever thus. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Chatelier's_principle
    which includes the general statement
    ‘Any change in status quo prompts an opposing reaction in the responding system.’
    The problem is that what that reaction might be is not known.
    For example the earth’s reaction to anthropogenic global warming might be to eliminate us!

  7. @ robin

    “You missed out the possibility of a simple “No”. I suspect there are plenty of European leaders who are glad to see the back of us, acting as a drag anchor on development of the EU project. Why would they want us back in, and once again able to block progress?”

    Exactly. The dream of a truly Federal Europe will be a step nearer without us!

  8. Jonesinbangor

    Good point. Sooner we leave them too it the better. A fully federal europe? What can possibly go wrong with that? Providing everyone speak French?

  9. LASZLO

    @”In the meantime UKIP in Stoke openly stitched to Smethwick campaign – either because of desperation or because of instincts.”

    Presumably they will switch to publicising the Paul Mason video-clip. Job done I should think !

  10. @Dave

    Yes, there can be feedback mechanisms that aid self-correction. E.g. increased warming due to CO2 causes increased evaluation hence increased cloud cover, which reflects more sunlight, hence you get a cooling effect to counter.

    Problem is, you can get feed-forward effects too. Thus warming leads to ice melting which leads to reduced reflection of Sun’s heat. Or maybe the methane hydrates buried in the oceans are released, with methane bring a much more powerful greenhouse gas…

    Of course, it may be that some corrective measures kick in overall, but… Locally things change. So maybe the ice melting affects water salinity and the gulf stream stops. This could have quite an effect on us, plunging us into rather more snowy and icy winters. But our buildings and infrastructure are not necessarily built to withstand the extra weight of all that snow and ice…

  11. “increased warming due to CO2 causes increased evaluation” = causes increased evaporation…

  12. @Graham
    ‘Do you contest my assertion that no other polling company is showing a decline in the Labour vote over the last 5/6 months?’

    Well, yes, as it happens…

    Ipsos MORI show a reduction from 34/35% to around 29% over the same timescale as YouGov’s decline (their monthly sequence goes 35,34,34,29,33,29,29)

    Of the four ‘main’ polling companies two (YouGov & MORI) show a fairly dramatic decline for Labour, two (Opinium and ICM) show relative flat-lining – it’s a puzzle…

  13. The Evening Standard are reporting a new ICM poll re Brexit at: Brexit poll finds most Brits are opposed to leaving EU without deal.

    No sign of any tables yet on the ICM website, but the article includes:
    The survey, conducted by ICM for online campaigning organisation Avaaz, found that just 35 per cent of the public said they backed Britain leaving the EU without an agreement with other nations.

    and

    It found that 54 per cent of those surveyed backed extending negotiations or calling a second referendum if a deal could not be reached. Thirty-four per cent of those people said Mrs May should return to the negotiating table if a Brexit deal was not reached.

    But 20 per cent backed halting the exit process while a second referendum is held to vote on the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU.

    Unsurprisingly, the article makes no suggestions on how these desires might be sated.

  14. @DAVE

    “All the more reason for having someone who knows how to handle all that rubbish, and not drop it on to classroom teachers.

    Also all the more reason for that person to know about teaching, so that s/he is not the one passing it on, but acting as a shield so that teaching can go on.
    The real problem seems to be that the Department for Education is where paperwork interfering with teaching is spawned.

    My great-grandmother, who left school aged about 10, taught me to read (textbook Rupert Bear in the newspaper) before she died when I was not yet three.”

    ————

    Well, there’s an additional issue here Dave, which I’m sure you will instantly grok the moment it’s pointed out, which is that we are not running the country.

    So what happens is that the politicians of assorted stripes, in their infinite wisdom, and being closet liberals, decide that everything would be much better if more and more things were devolved to schools. “It’ll be great!!” they tell everyone who wants to listen, and many who don’t, “Head teachers will be able to decide for themselves what’s best for their school!!”

    So where before the Local Authority took care of stuff like building regs and environmental regs and health and safety requirements and all that jazz, now all this and more is heaped upon the hapless head teacher.

    But of course, there won’t be much training for all this, nor funding so that they might hire people to help – in fact they’re cutting funding. “But you can delegate to staff!!” scream the politicians and their supporters, only you can’t do much of that because your staff are busy in the classroom teachin, or preparing for it.

    So suddenly the headteacher has to become an expert on all these things and more besides, nutrition etc., but sans much assistance, which leaves less time to deal with all the haphazard changes the governments shower on education at breakneck speed.

    If we were running the show, we might arrange for more assistance for heads to relieve some of the burden, but unfortunately we elect people who put taxes on storage instead.

  15. @Carfrew

    Why on earth do you think making head teachers responsible for administrative matters previously managed by local authorities (and all the other removal of powers from local authorities and handing them over to educational trusts/companies) is a ‘liberal’ goal?

    Given it was:
    a) driven first by Labour and then by the Tories
    b) an authoritarian central government response to the perceived excessive power-base of local government democracy (which is the place where liberals are strongest)

    it seems totally bizarre to blame this on the – anyway mythical – ‘liberal elite’.

    Pin responsibility on the authoritarians please, where it rightly belongs…

  16. C&BFR
    How did/do private schools deal with this?
    Surely builders are responsible for complying with building regulations? Tho’ I can see the difficulties if they don’t.

  17. @Bigfatron

    Don’t know that I can agree that liberalism was strongest in the Local Authorities. The Liberal PARTY might have been strongest there, but liberal POLICIES is a different thing. We have had a lot of liberal policies for many years, going back to the Sixties and Jenkins with Labour and the economic liberalism of the Selsdon set etc.

    This is why the actual Lib Dem party had to campaign on a more left wing platform to get votes, though it changed when they were in government.

  18. @Dave

    “How did/do private schools deal with this?
    Surely builders are responsible for complying with building regulations? Tho’ I can see the difficulties if they don’t.”

    —————

    In theory builders bear some responsibility, but in practice they can use it as summat to have over you in negotiations if not clued up. Also governments change things. Maybe the ramp a previous head had installed was fine at the time, but since then, things have changed and you need to check the gradient…

    And private schools may have a lot more money to hire peeps. My school had assets built up over hundreds of years and could run appeals raising millions… And that’s millions in the Seventies. We didn’t just have a separate science block, we had a separate BIOLOGY block.

    We had a separate concert hall, seating a thousand. I don’t mean a multi-purpise hall also used for gym, theatre etc. We had a separate theatre, we had a separate gym. Playing fields stretching a mile and a half into the distance. It’s a different world…

  19. @Bigfatron
    ‘Ipsos MORI show a reduction from 34/35% to around 29% over the same timescale as YouGov’s decline (their monthly sequence goes 35,34,34,29,33,29,29)’

    But Mori’s last poll in mid-January had Labour on 31% – higher than the 29% obtained in mid -October!

  20. I’ve been looking at 2017 polls, and I think I may see the issue with Labour and different Pollsters.

    YG and ICM have been a few points down for Labour compared to Ipsos Mori and Opinium. However, YG and ICM score the Lib Dems higher. Therefore, is it possible that some part of YG and ICM methodology gives the Lib Dems a higher vote share at the expense of Labour?

    2017

    Opinion

    (Lab/LD)

    30/8
    30/7

    ICM

    27/10
    26/10
    28/9

    You Gov

    26/10
    28/11
    25/11
    24/10
    26/11
    24/11

    ………Ipsos look way out of kilter…..

    31/11

    This poll puts UKIP at 6%, and looking at their post 2015 GE data, they seem to score UKIP very low, way below every one else. Very strange indeed.

  21. Rodger

    “It’s funny you should mention the name of Saint Blair w.r.t. Brexit. Had Blair, or any other competent politician, been President of the Commission Brexit would never actually happen.”

    Blair opening the borders is why Brexit happened.

  22. bZ

    Do you think that a poll postulating a scenario which is 18months-2 years away with no public argument/debate is useful?

    headline ought to have been- “Remainers clutch at straws-again”

  23. Haven’t checked other polls, but the YG one has an interesting set of numbers on those who “would not vote” in a UK GE.

    Of 2015 voters, only 1% of those for the other parties identified, but 3% of Lab ones.

    In the Scots crossbreak 16% WNV compared with 10-12% across E&W.

    Might this be indicative of a party that has already lost many supporters who are prepared to vote for others, and now sees its hardcore support sinking into apathy?

    Might be worth keeping an eye on those WNV folk (whom we normally ignore – cos they don’t vote! :-) )

  24. Yes, it’s very useful, to poll early, then we can track changes over time as the debate gets underway. Also, it’s Remainipeeps” clutch at straws-again…

  25. @Oldnat

    I may have observed in the past that when a party is having a sticky patch, their DK voters seem to increase too.

    Perhaps the route is ‘will vote for party’ to ‘don’t know’ to ‘will not vote’ or ‘some other party’.

  26. @TOBY EBERT

    “About labour shortages: any labour shortages, whether as a result of Brexit or anything else, should be good for workers, e.g the best time for workers in medieval England was just after the Black Death, when a third of the population died and landowners were desperate to get their crops in.”

    ————

    I seem to recall from a previous discussion elsewhere, that in response employers were handed a change in the law to curtail this new market power of employees, by virtue of allowing employers to say whether an employee could move in to another job or not.

    Summat like that anyway, if any peeps have more details…

  27. @Carfrew

    You obviously have a different definition of the word ‘liberal’ than I do – the Selsdon group were not remotely liberal IMHO, as well as being economically illiterate…

  28. Catmanjeff
    ‘ is it possible that some part of YG and ICM methodology gives the Lib Dems a higher vote share at the expense of Labour?’

    That does not work at all for ICM if you look at the second half of 2016. From end of July we have:
    27/8
    28/8
    27/9
    27/8
    26/8
    27/8
    28/9
    28/7
    27/9

  29. CMJ

    I think you have commented on DKs in the past. What struck me here was that this seems a stage on from that – WNV.

  30. CMJ

    Meant to add – SLab has already lost huge numbers of voters to SNP/SCon – and they didn’t seem to go through the gentle timeline you suggest – they just went.

    That’s why it seems a possibility that increasing numbers won’t vote for other parties – but they won’t vote Lab either.

    Do you include WNV in your graphs?

  31. @Bigfatron

    Yes, Selsdon weren’t liberal in all respects, that’s why I said economically liberal. Heath soon started deregulating the banks, summat Thatcher continued of course. But social liberalism, that was more Jenkins in Labour. Later, the main parties adopted more aspects, with Nulab accepting economic liberalism, and then Cameron accepting social liberalism like SSM.

  32. @bigfatron

    I am using a very conventional definition of liberalism, which is why you won’t see many challenging me on it. Social liberalism like anti-discrimination, free movement, right to choose etc., And economic liberalism, deregulation, global capital flows, letting markets decide etc.

  33. @Oldnat

    I keep the WNV data, but look at it as often.

  34. @Bigfatron

    I should add that it’s nothing unusual for some LibDems to be caught out by this, because the Lib Dems themselves moved away from liberalism somewhat and moved leftwards into the space vacated by Labour as they went more NuLab, I.e. as Lab became more economically as well as socially liberal.

    At least in terms of manifestos and stuff. But once in government, the Orange Bookness of it all soon came to the fore…

  35. Good evening all from rural Hampshire.

    GRAHAM
    AC
    “My comments re-Yougov are not waffle but based on facts which you might care to check for yourself”
    _________

    I have.
    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/831127656074792960/photo/1

  36. @Graham

    The range in the YG and ICM data for Lab and LD added together is the same post referendum – 34 – 39, with virtually the same SD. When run through a T Test, the data is the same statistically (0.23).

    Comres have one data point, and Ipsos Mori has twice the SD with a range of 36 to 46.

    Ipsos Mori looks like the loose cannon for sure.

  37. Carfrew
    “But our buildings and infrastructure are not necessarily built to withstand the extra weight of all that snow and ice…”

    In the seventies, when the conventional wisdom was that we were heading for a new Ice Age, and that glaciers would soon return to the UK, I had the idea of building a chain of nuclear reactors along the Scottish border, pumping hot water between them in order to prevent the glaciers advancing towards civilisation. A refinement that I’ve just thought of is that the meltwater could be used to generate hydro electricity.

  38. GRAHAM

    You’re beginning to sound a lot like them Remainipeeps with your constant moaning about Labour’s VI in the polls. I’m just surprised at the level of patience us Brexipeeps have over all this horrific wailing.

    You’re obviously not daft so can you give an educated guess on where you think Labour are in current polling giving all the recent polling flying around?

    I’m not having a pop at Labour and I do like old Corby but I just reckon the party and its voters are going through a period of massive recalibrating over leadership, Brexit and squirrels.

    Anyway, something to cheer you up.

    Q…. Why can’t you be friends with a squirrel? A… They drive everyone nuts. ;-)

  39. Seems to me that the difference, if there is any, between polling companies and Lab VI is either that they are doing either bad or dreadful.

  40. @Pete B

    Well actually, we were heading towards cooling, because all the particulates in the air were having a cooling effect. But the Tory clean air act saved us from the cooling, though it was marking the underlying CO2 growth.

    P.s. like your reactor idea, esp. if powered by Thorium. It could stop other things advancing towards civilisation too, like over-zealous anti-anglo peeps!!

  41. marking = masking

  42. Pete B

    Interesting idea.

    It wouldn’t stop England from becoming part of Continental Europe, though – so how are you going to keep those bloody immigrants out?

  43. GRAHAM
    Catmanjeff
    ‘ is it possible that some part of YG and ICM methodology gives the Lib Dems a higher vote share at the expense of Labour?”
    _________

    Well, this is a very interesting question. If the answer is yes then it sort of boots the much talked about mini revival the Lib/Dem are experiencing into the long grass.

    As we have seen leading up to two GE’s, polls tend to overestimate the Lib/Dems and people end up having to eat a variety of hats on election nights.

    I think you might be onto something!!

  44. @Bigfatron

    i have given some more thought to making the liberal thing more obvious!! i hope you will appreciate my efforts in this regard. It’s possible not everyone appreciates my efforts…

    Not only is my definition in wide use, it has a consistency. Basically the idea and usage of liberalism commonly springs from the liberal championing of the liberal value of liberty. The clue is in the name: Liberty, or alternatively, Freedom.

    Hence social liberty: freedom to move around, freedom from discrimination, freedom to choose etc.

    And economic liberty: markets free from regulation, from protectionism, capital free to move around everywhere etc.

    You can see the difference clearly in the States at the moment. Democrats are typically liberal, and are commonly in fact called liberals. Socially they are for freedom to choose, freedom from discrimination, and… economically, for pro free trade deals like NAFTA, TTP etc. promoting deregulation, freedom to access markets globally and Capital free to flow around everywhere, deregulating banking like Clinton did etc., and he also did NAFTA…

    Trump, in words at least, stands in opposition to this. In practice we shall see. He cancelled TTP though… and possibly isn’t the keenest on free movement…

    Because the Republicans, influenced by modern, neoliberal economics, adopted liberal economics in the Eighties, as did Thatcher here, some peeps lost sight of it actually being liberalism. They just came to see it as being typically right wing…

  45. ON
    “It wouldn’t stop England from becoming part of Continental Europe, though – so how are you going to keep those bloody immigrants out?”

    Many of the WWII pillboxes are still in place, plus Henry VIII’s forts and the offshore forts like Sealand. Oh, I just thought – we could pump the meltwater friom the glaciers into the North Sea and thus keep the Channel. Anyway, this is getting a bit silly so g’night all.

  46. @ AC

    “Well, this is a very interesting question. If the answer is yes then it sort of boots the much talked about mini revival the Lib/Dem are experiencing into the long grass.

    As we have seen leading up to two GE’s, polls tend to overestimate the Lib/Dems and people end up having to eat a variety of hats on election nights.

    I think you might be onto something!!”

    If there is some kind of interaction between Lab and LD VI going on then there are two possible explanations

    1) The ones showing higher LD VI are flattering the LDs
    2) The ones showing lower LD VI are flattering Lab, and things might be even more dire for Lab than it might seem.

    Given the strong LD showing in by Local and elections, I would pick option 2) are the more likely.

  47. @Jim Jam

    Indeed.

    It’s like a six foot tall man who can’t swim falling into a river, and expressing relief that the water is nine feet deep and not ten.

  48. “As we have seen leading up to two GE’s, polls tend to overestimate the Lib/Dems and people end up having to eat a variety of hats on election nights”

    ———–

    If one is to enter the world of political prediction, it is advisable, at the earliest convenient moment, to rid oneself of one’s hats. Or else invest in edible hats, which must surely be a market opportunity…

  49. EXILEINYORKS

    Okay fair points, however, we have two Westminster by-elections coming up be before the end of the month…Let’s see if option two stands up to scrutiny after the results!!

  50. CARFREW

    Ha! preferably ones made from Rice Paper. I’ll get on the phone to Paddy. ;-)

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