ComRes have a poll in Sunday’s Independent and the Sunday Mirror. Most interestingly, it found that people agreed by 45% to 39% that John Bercow was right to refuse to invite Donald Trump to address the Commons, but also that people thought by 47% to 37% that the Queen should meet Donald Trump if he visits the country. As we’ve already seen elsewhere, the British public have little sympathy for Donald Trump’s immigration policy (33% think he was right, 52% think he was wrong) though it’s worth noting that the question wording went considerably wider than Trump’s actual policy (ComRes asked about halting immigration from “Muslim-majority” countries in general, whereas Donald Trump’s policy deals with seven specific countries they claim have an issue with terrorism or vetting).

The poll also had voting intention figures of CON 41%, LAB 26%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%, GRN 4%. This is the first ComRes voting intenton poll since way back in June 2016 – after one of the poorer performing polls in the EU referendum (the final ComRes poll had Remain eight points ahead), they paused their voting intention polls while they conducted a review into their methods. They have now recommenced voting intention polls with – as far as I can tell – no changes to their pre-referendum methods. ComRes’s view appears to be that the referendum was an exceptional event, and while the turnout model they adopted after the polling errors of 2015 worked badly there, it worked well at the London mayoral election, so is being retained for Westminster polls. For better or for worse, the ComRes results seem to be very much in line with those from other companies, with a Conservative lead in the mid-teens.

Full tabs for the ComRes poll are here.

While I’m here, I should also mention a BMG Scottish poll that came out at the start of the week (I’ve been laid low with a heavy cold). Voting intention in a second independence referendum stood at YES 49%(+3.5%), NO 49%(-3.5%). This is the lowest lead for NO that any Scottish Indy poll has recorded since the EU referendum. This was interpreted by the Herald as a response to Theresa May’s announcement of her negotiating stance on Brexit. I think that is somewhat premature – so far we’ve had two Scottish polls conducted since May’s speech, a Panelbase poll showing a very small (and not statistically significant) movement towards NO and a BMG poll showing a somewhat larger (but still barely significant) movement towards YES. In short, there is nothing yet that couldn’t be normal sample variation – wait for the next few polls on attitudes towards Scottish independence before concluding whether there is or is not any movement. Full tabs are here


325 Responses to “ComRes/Indy/Sunday Mirror – CON 41, LAB 26, LD 11, UKIP 11”

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  1. @OLDNAT – I think you are splitting hairs.

    There has never been a UK statement in modern times that has called into question the territorial integrity of Spain.

    David Lidington when Minister for Europe, said in Parliament in 2013,
    “Ceuta and Melilla both border Morocco but are constitutionally part of Spanish metropolitan territory. The status of the Spanish territories of Ceuta and Melilla is, like the status of Gibraltar as a British Overseas Territory, the result of a distinct set of historical circumstances.”

  2. Sea Change

    Thanks for the clarification. From the wording of your previous post, I wondered if I had missed some definitive statement from the UK about Catalunya.

    You’ve now clarified that you just meant that the UK hadn’t questioned the territorial integrity of Spain – just as it hasn’t questioned that of France, Portugal, Andorra, Netherlands, Sweden ………..

  3. @OLDNAT

    Why on earth do you link the A50 declaration and recognition of Catelonia? I certainly didn’t. Recognition of a new country does not have to be done at any particular time. (check Kosovo, which has had 109 countries recognising it over the last five years.) Any recognition of Catalonia would, most likely, be in reaction to a subsequent unfriendly act by Spain – say the rejection of a deal.

    Nor did I suggest that the UK would be “uniquely” bring about international recognition of Catalonia. However, Spain’s refusal to recognise Kosovo is primarily because of it’s quarrels with Catalonia and Euskadi. Obviously the Spanish consider that recognition has value, which means that there is a value that Spain would pay to avoid such recognition of Catalonia.

    It may well be that Scots die at a slightly younger age than the English (I don’t know), but suggesting that their life expectancy is only two or three years is slightly fanciful. Or does ‘lifetime’ have a different meaning in Scotland? You asked for a ‘once in a lifetime’ opportunity. Are you saying that a Scotsman’s word is worthless?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7R__GiEc5wc

  4. ON
    “Anyone know if “Google Surveys” like this one
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/britains-brexit-regret-survey-shows-9805513
    have any value?”

    No it doesn’t because the article actually states that it is a survey of users of the Mirror sites, so it is a subset (those who bothered with the survey) of a subset (Mirror readers) of the electorate.

    If they did a series asking the same questions, it would have the value of showing how opinion has changed within that group.

    G’night all

  5. WyrIty

    It’s late and you are probably tired.

    For some reason, you brought up the idea that the UK could influence the Spanish stance on Gibraltar Airport by recognising Catalunya and/or Euskadi.

    The negotiations over the ESA will require to be concluded within 2 years from the tabling of Article 50 (or during any unanimously agreed additional timescale).

    Your latest post changes your stance totally. Probably fair enough, since you must have recognised that your original suggestion lacked any merit.

    However, you are correct. At some time in the future, it is open to the UK to do all sorts of things to try to get revenge on others that it thinks have “done it down”.

    Whether anyone, other than the most bitter Brit Nat, would see that as being helpful to the UK is another matter entirely.

  6. Pete B

    Ta.

  7. IDEAL4RADIO
    “Going back to the Lib Dem ” revival “, I’ve thought for a while that the Lib Dems will have a good set of local election results this
    May, which is not necessarily reflected in current polling..”

    “UKIP’s USP was ” Europe ” …as the public can see the process of Brexit happening, there will be many who will think that it’s ” job done ” so what’s the point of voting for them ?”
    ___________

    The Lib/Dems are currently at their lowest ebb so I wouldn’t be surprised if they do make some gains during Mays local elections. They couldn’t possibly go any further back from where they are now and I look forward to the inevitable spin from them attributing all their local successes to staying part of the EU come May.

    UKIP are in limbo at the moment and trying to find a purpose for themselves post-Brexit but their stagnation is probably down to TM and her party going down the hard Brexit road.

    It’s quite ironic, though, I can’t help but think had the country voted to remain then UKIP’s fortunes right now might be looking a lot rosier.

  8. PETE B

    No it doesn’t because the article actually states that it is a survey of users of the Mirror sites, so it is a subset (those who bothered with the survey) of a subset (Mirror readers) of the electorate.
    If they did a series asking the same questions, it would have the value of showing how opinion has changed within that group.
    G’night all
    __________

    Even if the survey had been from a cross-section of the entire country and not just users of the Mirror sites, then it’s still a good heads up for us “brexitpeeps” (thanks, CARFREW I’m adopting brexitpeeps) because despite all the bluster, negativity and horrific moaning, based on that result in that poll the country is pretty much evenly split…..

  9. @AC

    That’s ok Allan, but emember it’s Brexipeeps, without the ‘t’. It’s important to get these things right!!…

  10. (On the other hand, it doesn’t matter if you spell remember’ wrong….)

  11. @Alec

    Yes, I’m looking forward to these much anticipated long term benefits. So far it seems to be that we’ll be better off if we lose the banking, lose the nurses and be wheeled in to work in our eighties. Still, no one’s mentioned the impact on important things like the cricket though…

  12. @Carfrew
    “Still, no one’s mentioned the impact on important things like the cricket though…”
    Perhaps we can arrange for Holland, Ireland etc to be expelled from the ICC. That’ll learn them.

  13. Allan Christie,
    “UKIP are in limbo at the moment and trying to find a purpose for themselves post-Brexit but their stagnation is probably down to TM and her party going down the hard Brexit road. It’s quite ironic, though, I can’t help but think had the country voted to remain then UKIP’s fortunes right now might be looking a lot rosier.”

    Although I too have come to this realisation much later, I assume the conservatives followed this line of argument before ever supporting the referendum in their manifesto. Even Remain conservatives might have felt that a brexit led by the conservative party was prefereable to one led by UKIP. This is part of the explanation why conservative Europhiles have been so meek about this.

    The parties victory has been in getting most of the other MPs to agree to a policy intended to optimise the electoral chances of the conservatives. Simple arithmetic says that either the leave or remain camp has enough voters to win a general election if you can get it onto your side, and the conservatives have chosen leave. Labour is still backing leave light, and it isnt doing them much good. Not only do they fail to attract anyone, they are failing to make an argument why leave might be a bad thing, which could draw people away from the conservatives coalition. Part of the high conservative support is due to labour not even challenging their arguments. This similarly helped labour to lose the last two elections, where they failed to dispute the conservatives claims that lab had handled the 2008 crash badly, but instead they agreed with them!

    The referendum itsefl showed that you do not win by agreeing with your opponents. It was more an exercise in making outrageous lies, than in conceding even the most obvious fact to the other side.

    Carfrew,
    didnt you say we were safe from runaway inflation because we have surplus labour? But apparently the pension age is being raised again because we have a shortage? I can tell you there is already serious wage inflation going on in manual bottom end jobs, where it is running ahead of the new minimum wage. The NHS is going to be unable to hold the line on carer wages. It is already becoming a bidding war for available staff. This is starting to affect the teaching industry too.

  14. @Danny

    Highland Council in Scotland is talking about one head teacher running up to five schools because of the difficulty and cost of staffing remote schools.

  15. Oldnat

    “That was one of the most bruising games I have seen in ages!”

    Indeed it was, but still a very good game.

    Alec

    I agree Hogg had another very good game and he has the knack of scoring tries. I do think Scotland were just a little flattered by the score. The4 French disallowed try looked good to me and most commentators.

  16. The one thin this weekends Rugby has raised as an issue is the question of Italy and the relegation proposal. Whilst (few years ago Scotland, and in the Early stages of the Six Nations Wales) one of the original five might be relegated it would be fought tooth and nail: I am not so sure now given the performances at the weekend.
    As a proud Welshman (and after the Autumn performances) I was looking forward to the Wales/England match like root canal work, however despite the loss I think Wales have improved immensely in the intervening period. England under Eddie Jones have an intensity that harks back to 2003 and the World Cup.
    Scotland, well given scant resources they have proved the spirit of Scottish Pride is priceless, I am looking forward to another sparkling weekend of rugby on the 25 Feb.
    Any polls on whether relegation would be good for the six nations?

  17. one THING and this WEEKEND’S

    I will never get the hang of this typing lark

  18. WB

    Good post on the rugby which i am happy to agree with.

  19. Wolf,
    “Highland Council in Scotland is talking about one head teacher running up to five schools because of the difficulty and cost of staffing remote schools.”

    There have been other news stories about heads running more than one school, though this was portrayed as an excellent head extending his magic to help others. It would appear the role of head is increasingly divorced from actual teaching, running the risk of losing the objective of teaching amongst the paperwork.

  20. DANNY “the role of head is increasingly divorced from actual teaching”
    So a football team manager forgets about how to kick the ball?

  21. “It would appear the role of head is increasingly divorced from actual teaching, running the risk of losing the objective of teaching amongst the paperwork.”

    Not really, there’s lots of things they are often doing in taking a very proactive and ‘hands on’ approach to running the school that don’t involve either teaching or paperwork. Any sensible head will have the paperwork 95% delegated out to a competent office staff member.

  22. Is my understanding correct? In American state schools the “Principal” is very often a specialist administrator and has not been a teacher.

  23. WB

    It would be extremely unusual in the UK for the ‘headteacher’ to not actually have been a teacher.

    Further Education colleges etc may have a Principal like you describe, and who may not even be a qualified teacher.

  24. @TOH – yes, I was surprised the TMO disallowed that score, although that is only as I have now become used to the modern interpretation of the grounding laws. In my playing days that would never have been awarded, as the player would not have been judged to have been applying downward pressure, but in this, as in so many other ways, the interpretations have changed.

    Likewise the scrum feed. While scrum laws remain a source of bewilderment to most observers, the most bewildering negation of the rules is the crooked feed. I remain personally baffled why hookers are penalised for throwing a line out ball to their own jumpers, yet scrum halves literally roll the ball backwards to their own second row. The whole point of the scrum should be to hook the feed, with the put in being the critical advantage as you can both try to time the feed and hook and have your hooker closer to the feed.

    Still, that’s life, and things are always changing.

  25. @ BT says

    I understand the position over here I was wondering about my understanding on American schools and why the difference? Does it impact on outcomes:
    The reason I ask is because I remember in the 80’s there was great resistance from the medical professions that administrators should take over the running of hospitals from Doctors (some might say the doctors were right I won’t comment). I just wondered if America would be pointed out as an example of the way forward as it so often is by a certain type of politician.

  26. @ Alec

    GRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don’t get me started on Scrums: I was once penalised for spinning the ball as I put it in (straight I might add), so that it would bounce towards my hooker when it hit the ground. The referee told me that I was in breach of the Law on Gentlemanly conduct as I was attempting to gain an advantage “improperly”.
    The current Laws on scrums have made me think that referees have given up.

  27. Alec

    Agree with both your comments about moderna application of the rules. You very rarely see a straight scrum feed these days and equally rarely are the bad feeds penalised.

  28. The Indy are reporting that Britons would vote to Remain if the EU referendum were to be held today, a poll suggests.

    They go on to say that this was in a survey for The Mirror, presumably an additional question in the poll to which this thread relates.

    It doesn’t appear in the current tables, as linked to by AW, so presumably there will be an addendum published tomorrow.

  29. @Danny

    You’re not checking your thinking and it leads you into error. So firstly, I’m not saying we’re safe from all kinds of inflation. We were talking about the kind that can result from increasingly the supply of money sloshing around the economy. Because that tends to lead to more demand, and business may respond by producing more, it tends to have a self correcting element.

    But you can have inflation from other sources, eg big increase in commodity orices, that do not enjoy quite the same self-correction. Hence the swingeing oil price increases leading to inflation in the Seventies.

    Secondly, you are confusing two different surplus/shortages. There’s the amount of labour required to meet the needs of employers, and then there’s the amount of labour required to support an ageing population. The two are not the same. You can have too much labour for employers requirements, while not enough to support the aged. If the proportion of aged keep growing it’s possible that at some point even with full employment might not be enough to support the numbers of aged. (Unless they keep them working into their eighties or summat, which could happen…)

    You keep trying to dance around my point. Both the mechanism which is easily understood, and the evidence. While we have significant unemployment there is a straightforward corrective mechanism. As a result we’ve had little inflation to worry about for decades. But we DID have to worry about it with full employment.

    Consequently you will struggle to oppose this without continuing to tie yourself up in knots.

  30. @Danny

    You have a point about the headship thing though…

  31. PS to my previous post….

    The article also includes: The poll also found 54.7 per cent of respondents expect the UK to break up within the next 10 years as a result of Brexit.

    So it would appear that the addendum will contain some quite interesting data.

  32. YouGov/Times via order-order
    CON: 40% (-)
    LAB: 24% (-2)
    UKIP: 14% (+2)
    LD: 11% (-)
    GREEN: 4% (-)

  33. Danny

    About labour shortages: any labour shortages, whether as a result of Brexit or anything else, should be good for workers, e.g the best time for workers in medieval England was just after the Black Death, when a third of the population died and landowners were desperate to get their crops in.

  34. Is this a new low for Labour?

    Terrible, terrible poll for them.

    Sad to say, I would probably now vote Lib Dem if I was Stoke or Copeland. It’s hardly worth caring if this means Cons or UKIP were to win either seat, in these particular battles, and there must be many Labour remainers thinking that if they could just get rid of Corbyn then Labour might have a fighting chance of helping prevent calamity in 2020.

  35. In some of the remoter areas of the highlands schools can be extremely small, with roles in single figures and a single teacher.

    If that single teacher is given a Headship you are effectively paying a class teacher the same salary as someone with responsibility for staff in a larger school.

    It’s job sized on a number of factors but the salary difference is between £27k for a basic class teacher and £44k for the lowest head.

    So?

    Do you pay people to be heads regardless of workload; One School One Head,

    or

    Do you only appoint heads where the workload requires it; if four small schools only generate enough work for one head, you appoint only One Head.

    Take your pick!

    But if it’s single heads tell us what you’d cut to pay for it, preferably without that old chestnut about efficiencies and faceless pen pushers sitting in offices, which is just shorthand for I don’t know and won’t make tough unpopular choices!

    Peter.

  36. @Toby Ebert – it rather depends on the sector. In agriculture, yes that works, but it would mean additional inflation. Along with the imported devaluation based inflation (OK – so we know this isn’t really happening and is merely fake news) that could help trigger a more general inflationary spiral.

    Although having said that, in the agricultural sector, there appear to be more deep seated cultural reasons why domestic workers don’t go vegetable picking, as the sector relies on migrant labour in pretty much every western economy. If so, then vegetables just remain unpicked and we start importing more while farmers switch to low labour input crops.

    However, in the case on the financial sector, for example, it would likely just mean businesses relocating to places where they can readily get the kind of staff they want. There have already been announcements from a couple of UK car manufacturers that they are moving some R&D functions to eastern Europe, with staff availability post Brexit cited as a key reason.

    Lot’s of complexity, in many different directions.

  37. @Danny

    About pay. You’re introducing another error: being selective. Sure in almost any large enough labour market you might find some sectors with some wage inflation. But at the same time, others struggle. Hence headlines today about pensioners outstripping the workers, and how Millennials in particular being left behind.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/millennial-earnings-wages-inequality-generation-gap-pay-salary-a7569216.html

    “Young men today earn an average of £12,500 less during their 20s than the generation before them, according to a new study published on Thursday.

    Research conducted by the Resolution Foundation think tank, which aims to improve the living standards of Briton’s on low to middle incomes, shows that so-called millennials are earnings less than their Generation X peers during every year between the ages of 22 to 30, resulting in a cumulative pay deficit of £12,500.”

    In any event, we may have inflation due to currency falls which may in turn see workers pressing for wage rises. But as I said, this is a separate thing from inflation due to what we were talking about: putting more money in the economy and stoking demand, whether via QE, bank lending, or government borrowing and spending etc.

  38. @ bz

    There were also brief reports over the weekend of an ICM poll which found that about 34% of those surveyed supported May’s hard Brexit policy of “no deal between than a bad deal” and 54% agreed that in that event negotiations should either be extended or the process halted altogether while the public was consulted for a second time. Haven’t yet been able to find details of the poll.

  39. Dave
    Though that Yougov poll is within the MOE, I wonder if UKIP are benefiting from publicity generated by the Stoke by-election? Though I agree with posters that UKIP’s main aim seems to be nearly achieved and that they need to find a new cause, there is scope for a populist party. They do suffer a bit from the same syndrome as Labour though. Whereas Labour have difficulty nowadays appealing to both the traditional working class as well as the ‘metropolitan elite’, UKIP have to reconcile golf club bores in Surrey with the same traditional working class. Obviously these are just stereotypes, but you get the drift.

  40. @Barbazenzero

    If it’s the survey I’ve seen, it’s for the Mirror Group. Locally, there are regional breakdowns as the Manchester Evening News is reporting the Greater Manchester results. It suggests that GM as a whole would now vote Remain.

    The Mirror Group’s data suggests that 13.5% of Leave voters would now vote Remain.

    Now, there are a few things to bear in mind. First, this is a survey of Mirror Group paper readers (local and national). It is self-selecting. However, the core of Mirror readers are working class voters who normally vote Labour – ie those who delivered the Leave victory and are considered vulnerable to switching to UKIP by middle-class people who don’t understand them and have never tried to.

    The Mirror is, on the quiet, a very influential and widely-read newspaper with a readership who tend to get completely ignored in political commentary as they are a difficult subject for both Right (they tend not to vote for Right wing parties) and Left (they tend to be rather more socially conservative than Labour or the Lib Dems would like – so a majority of those surveyed prioritise border control over economic arguments), and they tend to be in the North, where nobody important in the media or politics lives.

    But if you want to understand this group of voters the Mirror gets them more than any other newspaper does.

    So this survey is probably not very scientific. But saying it is therefore not significant may be a mistake.

    More detail here: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/britains-brexit-regret-survey-shows-9805513

  41. @Dave

    “So a football team manager forgets about how to kick the ball?”

    ———

    They don’t tend to change the rules in football anything like as much as they do in education. Nulab issued over 700 directives for headteachers to wrestle with, and then when Gove came in he wasn’t shy about changing things either…

  42. PETE B
    Within the MoE indeed, but human nature finds it very hard to leave it at that, and hunts for reasons why a change within MoE from one poll to the next is real.
    “Obviously” here, the Labour VI -2% has gone straight to UKIP.

  43. “there must be many Labour remainers thinking that if they could just get rid of Corbyn then Labour might have a fighting chance of helping prevent calamity in 2020.”

    ——–

    They might be thinking, “if only Blairites and assorted quasis would agree to reduce the number of nominations required…”

  44. However as an addendum to my recent post

    We haven’t triggered Article 50 yet.

    Plenty of time for people to change their minds.

  45. @CHRIS RILEY “Plenty of time for people to change their minds.”

    I think this is borderline delusional. Since the 1975 Referendum there were periods of strong EU support and periods of strong anti-EU support in the polls. It took 41 years for the 2nd Referendum to finally get called.

    Once A50 is triggered next month it is a legal one-way street. But it was a one-way street once the Referendum result came in anyway!

  46. @Alec “Is this a new low for Labour? Terrible, terrible poll for them.”

    It’s bloody awful. But they did hit this 24% low before on the 19th December with YouGov.

    This one is marginally worse because the Tories are on 40 now when they were on 39 back in December.

    It truly is dire for Labour when we’ve had 6 weeks of bad headlines on the NHS and they are still bouncing around the mid-20s.

  47. @alec

    “Is this a new low for Labour?”

    No, it isn’t – not a “new” low, but repeating a low first reached in one December poll, and repeated for one in January.

    Looking at a trend line rather than just the short-term movement, we’ve entered a period of relative stability, with all major parties staying within a fairly narrow range.

    These are the VI shares for each, in the last eight YG polls (ie, going back to early December)

    Con: 42, 39, 39, 39, 42, 40, 40, 40
    Lab: 25, 24, 26, 28, 25, 24, 26, 24
    LD: 11, 12, 10, 11, 12, 10, 11, 11
    UKIP: 12, 14, 14, 13, 11, 14, 12, 14

  48. CHRIS RILEY @BZ
    If it’s the survey I’ve seen, it’s for the Mirror Group.

    Thanks for the info. Just shows that one should never assume, which mea culpa for having done so.

    In my defence, the Indy and the Mirror had just collaborated on the ComRes poll and made no comment on who had performed this one, which would appear to be of the voodoo variety.

    I have avoided the Mirror since the days of the bouncing Czech, but should have their website before posting.

  49. @OldNat

    “Why would anyone imagine that the UK is the only country that can insist that its interests are met, and that other countries doing the same thing are issuing “threats”?”

    It’s one of those irregular verbs:

    I want my interests met
    You issue threats
    He refuses to negotiate

  50. @Carfrew.
    All the more reason for having someone who knows how to handle all that rubbish, and not drop it on to classroom teachers.
    Also all the more reason for that person to know about teaching, so that s/he is not the one passing it on, but acting as a shield so that teaching can go on.
    The real problem seems to be that the Department for Education is where paperwork interfering with teaching is spawned.
    My great-grandmother, who left school aged about 10, taught me to read (textbook Rupert Bear in the newspaper) before she died when I was not yet three.

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