The Sunday Times had a Panelbase Scottish poll yesterday, with tables out today here – from memory I think it’s the first Scottish poll of the year. There are no voting intentions (or at least, none that have been published so far), instead it concentrates in Brexit and the potential for a second referendum on Scottish independence.

On independence voting intention remains little changed from the 2014 referendum – 46% would vote YES, 54% would vote NO. Opinion on whether there should be another referendum soon is pretty evenly split. Half want a referendum in the relatively near future (27% in the next year or two, 23% in “about two years, when the UK has finished negotiating to leave the EU”), half don’t want a second indyref in the next few years.

There is also little sign of any change of opinion on Europe since the referendum. Last year people in Scotland voted by 62% to 38% to remain in the EU, in a referendum tomorrow they say they would vote 61% to 39% to stay in the EU. Asking about some of the specifics on Brexit the poll asked about free trade and immigration, albeit in a slightly odd way (the question focused on just EU companies having access to Scottish markets, rather than vice-versa). By 65% to 11% people thought EU companies should still have free trade with Scotland, by just 40% to 36% they thought EU citizens should still have a right to live and work in Scotland.

Finally Panelbase asked if Britain left the EU, and then Scotland became independent, would people want an independent Scotland to join the European Union – an interesting question I don’t think I’ve seen asked before. 48% would support an independent Scotland joining the EU, 31% would be opposed.


167 Responses to “Panelbase Scottish poll”

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  1. “Half want a referendum in the relatively near future (27% in the next year or two, 23% in “about two years”

    Ruth Davidson is putting about the 27% number as the total for a future referendum (i.e. down from 45%).

    Lies and damned lies, eh.

  2. Reposted from the previous thread.

    I’ve quoted the actual questions, because the nuances of wording can be quite important. These are only the Qs that didn’t get much coverage in the Herald!

    “Do you think Scotland’s economy will be stronger or weaker after leaving the EU than it is within it?”

    Stronger 21% : Weaker 41%

    “Thinking ahead to the situation after the UK leaves the EU, do you agree or disagree with…Companies in other EU countries should be allowed to sell goods as easily in Scotland as they can in their own country?”

    Agree 65% : Disageree 11%

    “Thinking ahead to the situation after the UK leaves the EU, do you agree or disagree with…People from other European countries should still have an automatic right to come to Scotland to live and work should they so wish”

    Agree 40% : Disagree 36%

    “And do you think that, as a result of leaving the EU, Scotland will have more control over its own laws, less control or, will it not make much difference either way?”

    More 29% : Less 15%

    “Say that after the UK has left the EU, Scotland became an independent country, separate from the rest of the UK. In those circumstances, would you be in favour or against Scotland applying to join the EU?”

    Favour 48% : Against 31%

  3. Meanwhile the Joint Ministerial Committee met in Cardiff today.

    Here’s the report from the Belfast Telegraph

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/northern-ireland-leaders-press-theresa-may-for-further-involvement-on-brexit-negotiations-35409565.html

    Oddly, no detail on what Foster said, but lots about Sturgeon, and poor Carwyn Jones relegated to a footnote.

    Since Jones is the only one of the Leaders who isn’t allowed into the Ladies, he must miss out on lot of the important discussions being made there.

    That gender excluding “key to the executive washroom” has taken on a whole new meaning!

  4. Old nat
    The sample are saying that if they remain in the EU they will have less control of their own laws than if they left but are in favour of giving up that greater control by rejoining the EU which they believe gives them less control of their laws. It is a funny sort of independence where you want less control of your own laws.

  5. I was watching Guy Verhofstadt on Newsnight being interviewed by Evan Davies. Evan asked him about the accuracy of the alleged 60 billion figure being bandied about as the exit payment we will have to accept, I’m sure my ears must have deceived me because I thought I heard Verhofstadt say the amount was actually 600 billion? Did anyone else watch the interview and confirm I didn’t imagine this. Thanks..

  6. S Thomas

    The sample are saying no such thing.

    48% think it won’t make much difference. 7% don’t know. Since no one has the faintest idea as to which (if any) powers will come to Scotland, as opposed to Westminster, I would have opted for the latter response.

    Incidentally, there was no need to address your comment to me in the first place. Anthony provided the link to the tables, and they are there for all to study and draw conclusions from.

    While you have your partisan views (and that is perfectly reasonable – most of us do) to parade them on this site is bad enough, but to misuse or misunderstand or misrepresent polling to do such is unpardonable.

  7. You don’t have to agree with the sentiment to appreciate the Mary Poppins reference in this sign at an anti-Trump rally –

    Supercallousfragileracistsexistnazipotus

  8. Oldnat
    ‘I really don’t think you have thought through the implications of what you suggest on having referendums in every part of a polity where a majority voted in a different way from the polity as a whole.’
    I do not accept your premise that Scotland is a separate polity – any more than London is. It is,however, an important region of the the UK.

  9. @Bantams 11.59

    You heard it right. He definately said 600 billion. Don’t know where he gets that figure from but that’s what he said.

  10. Graham

    Fair enough. You are a British Nationalist, and we see things in different ways.

    However, “polity” does not have equivalent meaning to “state” (in the non-US sense).

    It is widely used to mean “any kind of political entity. It is a group of people who are collectively united by a self-reflected cohesive force such as identity, who have a capacity to mobilise resources, and are organised by some form of institutionalised hierarchy.”

    If you choose to use it in an entirely different way, that is a matter for you. No one can force you to believe that any word has a particular meaning.

    But you aren’t actually “not accept[ing] your premise that Scotland is a separate polity”, you are just saying I want to use the word in a different way.

    “Arguments” based on semantic differences are utterly pointless. They are as useless to the participants as the nature of the Trinity – and equally boring/incomprehensible to outsiders.

    So leave me out of such nonsense, if you would be so kind.

  11. Oh a Tartan thread….Happy days R us.

    Okay so it’s pretty much stalemate on the ol indy front since 2014 and Brexit doesn’t appear to have had any impact on indy VI.
    ……
    “Finally Panelbase asked if Britain left the EU, and then Scotland became independent, would people want an independent Scotland to join the European Union – an interesting question I don’t think I’ve seen asked before. 48% would support an independent Scotland joining the EU, 31% would be opposed”
    _______

    It’s a good question and one I’ve often thought about…Interesting considering the remain vote in Scotland was 62% and now according to the poll only 48% would back Scotland joining the EU. Mind you leave vote also drops from 38% to 31%. Big winner of the day is DK.

    I think the Scots are hold their cards close to their chests over the indy/Brexit thing….When Brexit happens and if it appears to have a negative impact on the Scottish economy then one would expect to see support for independence grow.

    Another interesting question though….33% of SNP supporters backed Brexit…how many of them would still support independence if it meant Scotland remaining part of the EU and how many Unionists who voted remain would vote for independence if it meant Scotland remaining part of the EU..Brexit/indy churn!! Is there such a thing?

  12. Oldnat
    I see Scotland as part of the British polity.
    I am not particularly a British Nationalist either – eg I had no wish at all to see the British Armed Forces in Iraq prevail as instruments of aggression.

  13. GRAHAM

    “I do not accept your premise that Scotland is a separate polity – any more than London is. It is,however, an important region of the the UK.”
    _________

    That’s not surprising..You see Scotland as a region of the UK..Others see Scotland as a constituent nation within the UK and others would like Scotland as a country to leave the UK.

    You have form on tartan bashing and repeatedly babbling on about Westminster not giving permission on a second indy vote…Surprise surprise though…if the Scots want to leave the UK or remain part of the UK then it will only be up to them. …Unless the UK gov decided to do a Czechoslovakia style split and boot the Scots out of the Union.

  14. Allan Christie

    “Brexit/indy churn!! Is there such a thing?”

    There definitely seems to be. Have a look at the graph in the YG analysis

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-shown-shift-towards-scottish-in/

    There are a lot of potential relationships in the mix for changes to both existing Unions (Crown Dependency status, anyone?) though folk are pushed by binary questions into selecting positions that aren’t necessarily reflective of their most preferred option.

    I agree with your “I think the Scots are hold their cards close to their chests over the indy/Brexit thing”

  15. AC
    ‘if the Scots want to leave the UK or remain part of the UK then it will only be up to them. ‘

    On the same basis ,if some parts of Scotland wish to leave an independent Scotland state then it will only be up to them!

  16. Graham

    “I see Scotland as part of the British polity.”

    If you want to think that polities do not have other polities within them, or are part of larger polities, then that’s your choice.

    I’m not bothered by how you choose to words – just irritated that you seem to want to impose your semantic definitions on others.

    Give it a rest!

  17. Oldnat
    I am not seeking to impose my views on anyone – simply expressing my own opinions!

  18. Graham

    You are free (as we all are – within AW’s limits) to express your opinions.

    However, trying to argue with other people on the basis of alternative uses of a word is particularly tiresome, and utterly pointless.

  19. OLDNAT

    Thanks for the YG link…So there does appear to be a bit of churn between remain Unionists and leave Yes supporters with the latter going over in slightly larger numbers to the Unionist side to remain part of the UK outside of the EU..

    NS will have to strike some sort of balance over what sort of Scotland she wants in the EU post indy to keep leave Yes supporters on side and at the same time attracting remain unionists.

  20. @oldnat

    If anyone is trying to impose semantic definitions it’s you, wibbling on about polities again!!

    P.s. regarding the stronger/weaker economy on leaving the EU polling, do you have any comparable figures for leaving the union, UK for comparison?

  21. GRAHAM
    AC
    ‘if the Scots want to leave the UK or remain part of the UK then it will only be up to them. ‘
    ………….
    On the same basis ,if some parts of Scotland wish to leave an independent Scotland state then it will only be up to them
    __________

    I’m not sure how that would sit within an independent Scotland but personally speaking I wouldn’t have a problem with it just as I wouldn’t have a problem if London wanted to bolt from the rUK to remain part of the EU.I mean they don’t half moan about Brexit. I’m all for people bolting if that’s what they want to do.

  22. Allan Christie

    I’ve been surprised that so few seem to have commented on the change of emphasis from the Scottish Government – and most of the opposition parties in Scotland.

    Pre-referendum, they were all arguing on the same side – stay in the EU and the Single Market.

    By the end of the year, things had changed. SCon, SLD and SLab had all adopted the stance of their Westminster colleagues (for SLab that’s hard to know!).

    SGP and SNP officially maintain their pre-referendum stance, but the Scottish Government significantly shifted the ground with their stance on post-Brexit.

    While I reckon it was a genuine attempt to keep the opposition parties on board with a common approach, the emphasis on remaining part of the Single Market, rather than the EU, allows an easy shift to a “join EFTA” position.

    What we haven’t yet seen is any polling on how Scots would view that option.

  23. “I’ve been surprised that so few seem to have commented on the change of emphasis from the Scottish Government – and most of the opposition parties in Scotland”

    ———-

    Well peeps might not have commented because it’s not really a surprise. We’re leaving the EU so the next best thing from a remainer perspective might be to stay in the single market.

  24. Carfrew

    “Polity” is a widely used term because it avoids any need for absolute definitions of the powers, responsibilities etc of the political unit being described.

    If you prefer to use some composite terminology like state/nation/nation-state/sub-state-unit/federal-entity/county/province (together with any other variations that exist, then I would be the last person to stop you.

    Personally I find “polity” quicker to type.

  25. Sally Yates, the Acting Attorney General has been fired.

    It took Donald “The Apprentice” Trump only 10 days to say, “You’re Fired!”.

    Obama has broken Presidential precedent to condemn the Trump EOs and then has gone further by encouraging demonstrations.

    That in itself is extraordinary.

    ———

    I remain perplexed why a freshly Independent Scotland would turn around and then surrender much of that independence to be a tiny bit-player in the EU.

  26. First Poll released on the temporary immigration ban

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/immigration/january_2017/most_support_temporary_ban_on_newcomers_from_terrorist_havens

    57% Agree
    33% Disagree
    10% Undecided

    If you subscribe to Rasmussen you can see the questions and cross-breaks.

    Field work was done before the protests on 25th-26th. So I expect further polling to come out mid to late this week and we’ll see if the needle has moved or not.

  27. @oldnat

    ““Polity” is a widely used term because it avoids any need for absolute definitions of the powers, responsibilities etc.”

    ————–

    Yes, and the consequent vagueness arising from that lack of ‘absolute definitions’ seems to afford you much room for quibbling…

    Any joy finding some polling on how Scots view economic outcomes of leaving the UK?

  28. @Sea Change

    “I remain perplexed why a freshly Independent Scotland would turn around and then surrender much of that independence to be a tiny bit-player in the EU.”

    ————-

    Well it would make sense if it was less about independence and more about keeping the oil…

  29. With regards future commitments to the EU following Brexit, I’d say 60B Euros is very optimistic, 600B very high.

    As with all public sector pensions in austerity (aka skint) Europe, who eventually foots the bill is the elephant in the room, but the EU won’t be shy in calculating future liabilitiies!

    The EC pensions are “are paid as a percentage of the final basic salary. Officials accumulate 1.8% pension rights every year and are entitled to a maximum pension of 70% of their final basic salary.” (Source ec.europa.eu website).

    What’s the betting there’s a huge blackhole here?

    Ironically, I think the % of UK officials in the EC is lower than our population as a % of the EU. We’ll be asked to pay nonetheless.

    We haven’t even started on redundancy for excess employees.

  30. S Thomas,
    ” It is a funny sort of independence where you want less control of your own laws.”

    Not really. Both scottish independence and Brexit are votes for an ideal and never mind the consequences. Ditto Trump.

  31. @CARFREW

    Well there’s bugger all tax at current crude prices. And there’s a 24 Billion pound bill to decommission a bunch of wells.

    I guess as a Unionist I should invest in a T-shirt supporting American Frackers. They are doing a sterling job keeping prices down!

  32. Has anyone heard a 600 billion Euro bill to leave the EU? I thought I was hearing things last night when Guy Verhofstadt mentioned this figure in reply to a question by Evan Davies. I can’t have been the only one whose jaw dropped onto the floor in disbelief?

  33. A bit-player in the EU would be a step up from a ‘no say whatsoever’ player in Westminster. Of course, any nation can leave the EU if it finds its membership to be non-advantageous.

  34. By my calculations 600 billion Euro bill
    is about 60 years of net contributions at the current UK rate.

    Wow, is this correct or have I made a school boy error?

  35. @Sea Change

    Well yes, but it depends on whether you – or rather they – think prices will rise again and/or costs will fall significantly. It’s not just fracking putting potential downward pressure on oil price, but fall in cost of renewables, as well as modern industrial efficiencies, and reduction in travel due to telecoms, fewer trips to shops… Before the question of whether they make stuff like Thorium and Hydrogen work.

    This is before we get to wildcards like war, like biggest oil producers creating artificial scarcities etc.

  36. @STATGEEK

    “A bit-player in the EU would be a step up from a ‘no say whatsoever’ player in Westminster. Of course, any nation can leave the EU if it finds its membership to be non-advantageous.”

    ———-

    Lol, you do have a say Statty, because they don’t want you to leave. Hence devolution, Barnet etc.

  37. OLDNAT

    I find absolutely nothing surprising in this latest Scottish poll. Do you?

    Sea Change

    Thanks for details of the Rasmussen poll. No surprise to me. The next few polls will be the most interesting following the World wide demonstrations against the policy. It would not surprise me if the 57% actually went up.

    Bantams

    Yes the figure is correct. I thought that Guy Verhofstadt was supposed to be a serious person. I think it shows the desperation in the EU to somehow prevent us from leaving. I have felt for some time now that there is real fear in the EU, just IMO of course. Adds to my view that May has got her thinking on Brexit exactly right.

  38. @OldNat

    “Supercallousfragileracistsexistnazipotus”

    I was there, saw this just in front of me, and spent the rest of the night repeating it to myself, committing it to memory – with one amendment:

    Supercallousfragileracistsexistbullypotus

  39. @Sea Change

    You can see the mindset of some of the Nats. They get devolution, where they get control of a bunch of stuff, but that is completely discounted, and they just say they have ‘no say’ because conveniently only considering what’s reserved for Westminster.

  40. ROBERT DONNELLY

    THis might be of interest to you :-

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/02/eu-demands-britain-pays-pensions-of-1730-eurocrats-in-wake-of-br/

    The questions I would have are:-

    These are retired EU officials-working for the whole EU presumably-why does the cost of their pension fall on the country of their nationality?Eurostat gives UK ‘s contributions to EU BUdget 2015 at 12.57%. So do we get retrospective refunds for our excessive contributions to the pensions of EU officials who are not UK nationals?

    How are EU employee pensions funded? If they are fully funded there is no question of further payments for future pensions at the date of our exit- our contributions over time will have been actuarially calculated to fund future pensions as they fall due……….if however, as I suspect EU pension schemes are yet another unfunded, pay as you go black hole to be filled by future taxpayers-there will be something to argue about.

  41. Well I don’t want this to get Partisan so I’ll stick with the overall strategy. I think the biggest issue that the SNP will have to circumnavigate is when Holyrood receives powers back from the EU after Brexit.

    How are they going to square the circle when they say they want to give them back again by leaving the UK and joining the EU and look credible?

  42. @allanchristie
    “It’s a good question and one I’ve often thought about…Interesting considering the remain vote in Scotland was 62% and now according to the poll only 48% would back Scotland joining the EU. Mind you leave vote also drops from 38% to 31%. Big winner of the day is DK.”

    To get comparable figures you need to exclude “don’t knows” from the % poll calculation in the way that “did not votes” are excluded in calculating the referendum 62%/38%.

    On that basis join/don’t join at 61/39 is pretty much the same as the remain/leave result although obviously there is a substantive difference between a leave/remain and join/don’t join question!

  43. Interesting question to answer. It may involve squirrels…

  44. @Bantams

    Yes he did say 600 billion euros.

    I have to say he behaved like Jurgen Klopp on speed.

    Trump looks sane by comparison…

  45. @Allan Christie

    “I think the Scots are hold their cards close to their chests over the indy/Brexit thing”

    I am not so sure. There are wish lists about, perhaps. below is a link to a policy document by NFU Scotland. Given the contribution made to the Scottish economy by the agriculture sector, it’s fragility and the support it presently receives, it is important.

    In January this year, George Eustice, UK DEFRA minister said that after 2020 there would be no more subsidies. Here is a link to a NFU policy document which sets out the wish list of the Union which looks unlikely to be met.

    http://www.nfus.org.uk/system/files/Brexit%20-%20Oct%202016%20-%20email.pdf

    The Scottish NFU has meetings soon at it’s AGM. Ruth Davidson is a guest and she is followed by Nicola Sturgeon. I expect we will soon start to hear Scottish opinion on Brexit. It is unlikely to be more favourable than the Referendum result in Scotland

  46. I can see the attraction in the SNP saying that they should leave the UK to maintain access to the Single Market, but it fails to think one step ahead.

    If the UK gets bad trading terms with the EU, then Scotland as part of the EU would have bad trading terms with the rest of the UK.

    Will asturgeon be proposing that a Yes to independence be followed by a post- negotiation referendum? I don’t think it necessary, but she would be a tad hypocritical not to offer one for when such contradictions fail to be bridged.

    Obviously no problem if the UK does a good deal. But that will undermine the argument to leave the U.K.

    I think the opinion poll needed to keep digging through the scenarios. I suspect most Scots can’t imagine non-free trade with the UK.

  47. @carfrew

    59 can never out-vote 591 or 530, or even 326. When you accept that arithmetical fact, then you can accept the point I was making.

  48. @seachange

    “I remain perplexed why a freshly Independent Scotland would turn around and then surrender much of that independence to be a tiny bit-player in the EU.’

    Well let’s see if we can reduce your perplexity.

    Arguments are:

    a. Scotland would be a sovereign nation deciding whether EU membership is in its interest or not and would retain the option to leave if it wished to do so. At the moment, you and others on here use the vocabulary of “allowing”, “giving” ( and so on ) Scotland permission at a time of the UK’s choosing to have a referendum. Scotland at the moment is not able to act on its decision to remain in the EU. You will have noticed that the UK did not have to be “allowed” or “given” the right to hold a referendum on the EU.

    b. The EU’s system of unanimity, majority, QMV in the Council is structured to give smaller states a significant say (which is why of course the UK pursued an expansionist EU policy to dilute the power of France and Germany). At the moment, the UK is not structured to give the constituent countries any safeguards which in practice means that with very few exceptions England’s voice is decisive on all major matters. The proposal for a double lock in the EU referendum to protect the positions of the Scotland, Wales and N Ireland was rejected out of hand. The recent SC judgement has also shown that the constitutional “protections” included in the Scotland Act 2016 are worthless as they are not enforceable within the UK political and legal system.

    c. It is interesting that Brexiters were criticising the EU system which allowed Wallonia to have a say in ratifying the Canada trade deal but also use the argument which you have above about Scotland’s alleged lack of power and influence in the EU!

  49. @Graham

    Your discussion with OldNat raises an important issue. It is a question of the degree to which a community, any community, has the right of self-determination.

    On the last thread I suggested that Shetland and/or Orkney may well wish, in the event of Scottish independence from the rUK, to become independent themselves. Such a new country would surely be economically viable, given the offshore assets.

    What rights do the Shetlanders and Orcadians have in such circumstances? How could the SNP, or rather the Scottish Government, say ‘no’?

  50. @seachange

    ” I think the biggest issue that the SNP will have to circumnavigate is when Holyrood receives powers back from the EU after Brexit.
    How are they going to square the circle when they say they want to give them back again by leaving the UK and joining the EU and look credible?”

    Except there is unlikely to be any substantive powers “coming back” to Holyrood ( and remember they were never there in the first place).

    Two reasons:

    a. May signalled in her Brexit speech that powers would substantially be retained at Westminster. Her form of words was basically that the post Brexit settlement would ensure that no current decision making powers would be removed from the devolved governments. So translating from Westminsterese there will be some crumbs from the Westminster table no doubt but nothing more.

    b. this is not surprising given the Unionist wish to retain the “UK Single Market” which has guided a lot of the decision making on devolution. So clearly that rules out devolution of agricultural and fishing policy ( the latter is also ruled out on external relations grounds as well), employment issues, environmental protection, probably VAT, immigration, energy and really virtually everything significant.

    And we have already had first decisions on this. The UK Government has already ruled out any flexibility on immigration policy despite Gove offering this in Scotland as a reason to vote Leave in the referendum. And May clearly signalled at PMQs that access to UK fishing waters will be one of the bargaining chips that the UK will use in the Brexit negotiations so that will clearly not be devolved.

    So actually the issue is probably more in your mind than a reality. And as @oldnat has said you don’t seem to have caught up with the SG’s repositioning to give Scotland greater flexibility on the EU and Single Market.

    And finally you are assuming that Scotland leaves the EU and then rejoins ( notably the Project Fear “Scotland won’t be able to join at all” theme seems to being downplayed).

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