Several newspapers last night reported a “poll” commissioned by Labourleave in Stoke on Trent. It claimed to show UKIP on 35%, Labour on 25% and the Tories on 10%.

Labourleave have today put up this document. It is fair to say it is light on methodological detail.

There is no sign of who did the fieldwork, how the data was weighted or even what mode it was conducted by. We do not have any information about the demographics of the achieved sample. Worryingly it doesn’t even specify that it was specifically Stoke Central though I can only assume it was. All we have is a sample size of 182. In a random sample this would give a huge margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points (despite the 4% it claims in the document)

My understanding is it comes from Labourleave convassing their own database of contacts in Stoke (though there has also been a suggestion that it was a Facebook poll). Obviously something like that brings a heavy risk of bias depending on who they have on their database and what skews may be present. With all those concerns, one can put very little weight upon the results. Even if details are forthcoming and it turns out it was actually conducted and weighted in an appropriate way, the tiny sample size renders it of limited use.

For now – at least until more detail is forthcoming – ignore.


866 Responses to “Labourleave “poll” in Stoke”

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  1. Sea Change,
    “What is becoming abundantly clear that all the bluff and bluster on the continent has turned to a stark realization that they do not hold all the cards”

    May made a dunkirk style speech, in anticipation of the UK once again being pushed out of Europe. She also seems hopeful of getting US and Russian aid against German led Europe, and entering the third european centred world war. Just as then, the US will see this as a way to cut down European world power, as Trump has promised.

    And the outcome will be the same, if Europe does not stick together it will lose out, including the bit called UK. Interesting times indeed.

    We are still in the phoney war stage, where diplomats are deluding themselvesand the public that sense will prevail, whereas the parties have their own entrenched positions. Politicians are well content to manoeuvre the states into war in a misguided belief their side will come out victor. I’d say odds are on the EU to win, but it might again depend on the US as the decider. If the US does win, the losers will include the UK. Trump is wholly in the model of all preceding US presidents in this respect.

    Immediately after WW2, labour had a landslide victory.

  2. Pete

    I do not have crystal balls.

    As has been posted the potential EC ambassador is betting against the Euro lasting 18 months. I would take that bet but it demonstrates the flux and why it is difficult to be certain either way as to how negotiations will go.

  3. Trump and Nato

    4 countries have moved military assets to eastern Europe.Britain, America and Canada were 3 of them.
    where are the rest of Europe?or does Europe rely on North America to defend it or as trump might see it, pay to defend it

  4. jim jam
    ” the £ is rallying against the $ now which surprises me”

    It surprises me too, because it hasnt. The pound has fallen against the dollar and euro for the last ten years, and against the dollar for the last 100. Look at the big picture, not day to day trading, which is all about traders making money from headlines. The pound had levelled off after the 2008 crash, but has been falling pretty steadily ever since the plans for a referendum became clear.

  5. Danny et al

    No-one is being ‘pushed out of Europe’ as you so strangely put it. The UK voted to leave. I don’t see why you and others want to both leave and stay at the same time. Brexit means Brexit, or so I thought. That’s why I was and am against it. But you seem to be pointing both ways at the same time. I am perplexed!

  6. Danny

    Apologies if I misunderstood your 8.13 post. It may be Sea Change and others who are confusing me, rather than your good self.

  7. John B

    Dont worry. Dementia is rife on this site. Myself included.

  8. Re: Morality and MP’s votes.

    If a decision to vote a particular way is taken on principled grounds then surely that is a “moral” vote. The trouble with morality is, of course, it is a cultural construct and therefore one person’s morality is another’s immorality. Whether there is a fount of universal morality has been a debate amongst philosophers throughout history. Those who subscribe to a particular form of Christian morality based on individuality would have great difficulty in accepting that Benthamite Utilitarianism was “moral” and vice versa. I therefore think that such a debate on this site veers off polls too significantly to be “morally” justified under the AW comments policy rubric of morals!

    By the way given the maxim “it’s the economy stupid” the polling verdict on Brexit may well be affected by movement in the relative economic circumstances of the UK and EU in the negotiating period: what price the “morality” of the way in which a particular MP voted on Article 50 then? If past experience is anything to go by, those in charge get the blame, or credit, in VI.

  9. The Times is reporting this morning that Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK is 4 times higher than that with the 27 EU members.
    Scotland’s trade with the rest of the world is £4bn more than with the EU.
    On what economic basis does the Scottish First Minister think the European Union is better for Scotland than the British Union?

  10. @WB
    How true. The apparent hardening of Brexit sentiment is surely related to the upbeat economic indicators which TOH generously shares with us and which contrast with the predictions of Armageddon put about by the remain campaign. I heard last night of a meeting of Nissan workers where 39 out of 40 were Brexiters pre-referendum. The one remainer looked foolish a few weeks ago when some deal (mucky or not) was put together to ‘ensure’ Nissan UK manufacturing’s survival. He looks slightly less foolish now as Carlos Ghosn talks of investment plans being ‘re-evaluated’ and may look like the oracle in a couple of years.

  11. Over 1.26 today Danny when it bobbed below 1.20 at the lowest point.

    I am well aware of the long term decline but that is already in any inflation equation

  12. @ Old Nat

    So I attended the Women’s March on Saturday. Over 3/4 of a million people descended on my neighborhood, which genuinely shocked me but also heartened me.

    I’ve been taking your advice and observing culturally whether people are doing things as Americans or as Californians. It was odd to see a booth (next to the one where I hung out upon a case of agoraphobia) for the “California National Party.” But then again, it is odd to see in an overtly apolitical culture, so many people turning out on a bright beautiful Saturday to go protest. It was striking to see so many parents there with little kids. What was interesting though was that there was effectively no march. Too many people showed up and there was just too little space for everyone. At one point, I left and gave up trying to march to City Hall and instead went to a rooftop deck to watch the sheer numbers of people. I could see 5 parallel city blocks jammed with people. People were trapped on the subway as they tried to get out and head to Pershing Square. Yet there was this amazing camaraderie amongst people there. People from all walks of life just genuinely getting along and almost seemingly relieved to be out with one another. I was amazed by the number of suburban moms there with their kids. And I have to say, there was this collective energy on the day. Just this feeling of positive energy. Never seen anything quite like it in my life.

    A larger question is where this energy will actually be directed. It will go someplace.

    Thinking of your advice and trying to view things like you would, I observed that people seem to speak of the U.S. Constitution, they waive American flags, and they make signs referencing their American status. Not their status as Californians. And culturally, the protesters are American. One amusing thing to me was to see all the permitted gourmet food trucks lined up on Broadway, lines out the door of the Subway Sandwich shop and the absolute crowds packed into the Grand Central Market. Protesters have to eat too and these are Americans.

  13. You Gov Poll for the Times has Labour at 24%.

    More dire news and the slow decline goes on.

    Tories 16% ahead.

    No Liberal revival – stuck on 10%, behind UKIP.

  14. Strong GDP figures for the final quarter. 0.6% growth.

    UK plc struggles on after the great unwashed had the temerity to ignore their betters and voted to leave the super successful EU….

  15. Tony Blair swept into the capital of the EU yesterday and had a big hug from his old mate “President” Juncker. They then went into a “private” meeting.

    Ain’t life grand !

  16. Jasper 22,

    “On what economic basis does the Scottish First Minister think the European Union is better for Scotland than the British Union?”

    On the same basis that the UK Prime minister thinks we can leave the EU and still successfully trade with it and the rest of the world.

    There’s no contradiction if you think the same rules apply to all countries.

    It’s only odd if you think the world revolves around the UK

    Peter.

  17. The PM might want to consider this before she forges a close relationship with President trump.

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Donald_Trump

    Peter.

  18. Jasper

    We may have voted to leave the EU but that departure is still a couple of years away. We will have to wait for quite a while to see the effect on growth in the UK. An earlier indication may be investment by companies over the next year or so.

  19. Graham,

    You are correct that the Ashcroft constituency polls were most spectacularly wrong in LD seats and the second question (which seemed quite reasonable to most people on this site) turned out to be wrong. There were one or two such as Sheffield Hallam where they were relatively accurate but underestimated the Lib Dem vote by a few % however. In Cambridge there was a poll in Sept 2014 that forecast the result almost perfectly but then Ashcroft spoiled his record in March 2015 by forecasting LD 9% ahead!

    They were also very wrong in enough Lab-Con marginals (where the second question typically made little difference) to encourage Labour however. For example in Pudsey three Ashcroft polls (2 of them in April 2015) showed Labour and the Tories within 1% of each other, but the result was a Conservative victory margin of 8.8%. Other polls in other seats were more “accurate”, and I think there are some fundamental problems with polls at constituency level, probably in the demographic corrections..

  20. Good morning all from a cold sunny central London…

    JASPER22

    “You Gov Poll for the Times has Labour at 24%.

    More dire news and the slow decline goes on.
    Tories 16% ahead.

    No Liberal revival – stuck on 10%, behind UKIP.”
    _________

    Biggest shock has to be the Lib/Dems non revival. The public appear to be giving them a wide berth over any proposals for a second referendum.

    However the Labour VI is tragic and with two potential banana skin by-elections coming up I would be extremely worried if I was a Labour strategist..

    One thing that is very apparent is the unity of the Tory party over Europe which in the past has been their downfall. TM for now has the party on her side and it’s reflecting positively in the polls plus most of the economic indicators look promising so I’m not surprised the polls look very juicy for TM and her party.

  21. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)
    “The PM might want to consider this before she forges a close relationship with President trump”
    _________

    We all know Trump is an unconventional type of President but what are you suggesting? We turn our backs on the USA and forge closer links with who?

  22. Allan Christie

    Exactly. Telling Trump to p*ss off isn’t going to help us is it?

    I also think she’s quite enough at peace with herself to not feel obligated to Trump on a personal level, whilst keeping on good terms. She’s straight up and down as a person, most would agree.

    Forging a close relationship is fine, ingratiating yourself to Trump on the other hand would be bad policy and (eventually) damaging to TM politically when he becomes truly unpopular at home for his actions as President.

  23. PETER CAIRNS

    @”The PM might want to consider this before she forges a close relationship with President trump.”

    …or she might want to stick to her statement that it is the relationship between the two countries which is important ( politicians being transitory) ; and try to forge a personal relationship based on frank & honest discussion of differences where those exist.

  24. Colin,

    She might, but Mays continual attempts to face to ways at once can’t last forever, events will over take them and he will need to make choices.

    The Shared Society; Open to fee trade and low tax low regulation, but bosses must be fair to workers.

    Low taxes and less interference for the state but the state will intervene to protect people.

    We are leaving the EU but want to have all the benefits and none of the costs.

    The US and Britain can lead the post Brexit world, even though it’s America First and we still want the closest relationship with Europe.

    The Trump Whitehouse wants closer relations with Russia and is heading for conflict with China, we are at odds with Russia and costing up to China but we want to lead the world with the US.

    What May seems to want time and time gain is to have her cake and eat it. That’s an ideal but is it in any way practical or realistic.

    Do you really think we can go forward sitting on the fence cherrypicking from both sides indefinitely.

    You can’t set the pace on direction if you stick in the middle of the road, all you can do is pretend that the middle of the road is the direction that is right and your setting the pace.

    Peter.

  25. Peter Cairns

    Scotland would be subject to tariffs on its exports to the UK

    Scotland would have to apply to join the EU

    Scotland would have to decide what currency to use…”foreign”pound, useless Euro, new “jockdollar” ??

    Scotland would not be a member of NATO – the SNP is against nuclear weapons.

    I would suggest a bit different to Britain leaving the EU.

  26. I’m puzzled by this ‘no Lib Dem revival’ meme, as we went through this only two days ago.

    The LibDems are up 2.5% using a10 poll running average,
    and are above 10% in January for the first time since 2010.

    The Yougov poll of 10% is exactly in line with this (statistically significant, as demonstrated by Catmanjeff’s graphs) revival.

    Yet people persist in claiming there has been no revival in LibDem VI.

    I know post-truth is all the rage these days, but can we avoid it on here when it comes to polling statistics?

  27. JASPER22
    “The Times is reporting this morning that Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK is 4 times higher than that with the 27 EU members.
    Scotland’s trade with the rest of the world is £4bn more than with the EU”.
    “On what economic basis does the Scottish First Minister think the European Union is better for Scotland than the British Union?”
    __________

    To be fair to the Scottish Gov they are not suggesting they stop trading with the UK in favour of the EU. I’ve always said that if Scotland was to break off from the UK then it’s in all our interests to make it work…

    England’s top export market is the USA
    United States: US$66.5 billion (14.5% of total UK exports)
    Germany: $46.4 billion (10.1%)
    Switzerland: $32.2 billion (7%)
    China: $27.4 billion (5.9%)
    France: $27 billion (5.9%)
    Netherlands: $26.6 billion (5.8%)
    Ireland: $25.5 billion (5.5%)
    Belgium: $17.8 billion (3.9%)

    However England exported over 55 billion worth of goods and services to Scotland making Scotland England’s second largest market and Scotland exported over 50 billion of goods and services to England making England Scotland’s number one export market.

    I read somewhere 2 million jobs in England depend on the Scottish economy and 1 million jobs in Scotland depend on the rUK. We need each other now and even post indy we would still need each other.

  28. Jasper22; “Strong GDP figures for the final quarter. 0.6% growth.”

    Testament to the success of the UK economy as part of the Single Market.

    Let’s wait and see what happens to it when that prop is removed.

    BTW, for those who like to be alerted to good news, and especially those who bemoan the fate of the Mediterranean countries crippled by being in the eurozone:

    “España ya encadena tres años de mejora laboral en su todavía maltrecho mercado laboral. Dos cifras apuntalan la primera parte de la frase: 2016 ha acabado con 413.600 ocupados más y con 541.700 parados menos.” (El Pais today).

    Quick translation: Spain has now put together three years of improvement in its still battered labour market. Two statistics underline the first part of that statement: 2016 has ended with 413,600 more jobs and 541,700 fewer unemployed.

    **************

    Of course, there’s still a long way to go, but that’s in part because the rapid improvement in productivity means that strong economic growth is not fully reflected in employment growth.

    And for those who say that a fatal flaw of the euro is the inability of countries within the eurozone to compensate for lack of competitiveness by devaluing, here’s a link to another story showing that Spain has, through lower inflation than its eurozone peers, regained all the competitiveness it had lost to Germany. Sorry it’s in Spanish, but the graphs tell the story:

    http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2017/01/22/actualidad/1485110482_628146.html

    For anyone interested in economics it’s a fascinating case history of how, within a currency union, adjustments can take place by means of reducing unit labour costs, rather than by devaluation. A couple of key sentences I’ve translated are:

    “Just two months after the rate of inflation dropped below the European average, the economy started to generate jobs.”

    And:

    “By September 2016, the Spanish economy had regained all the competitiveness lost compared with Germany since entering the euro.”

    The story is actually somewhat negative, as it highlights the fact that after 39 months of inflation below the eurozone average, Spain’s inflation went higher (by 1.4% to 1.1%) in December, thanks to Spain’s sensitivity to higher oil prices.

  29. BT SAYS…

    “Forging a close relationship is fine, ingratiating yourself to Trump on the other hand would be bad policy and (eventually) damaging to TM politically when he becomes truly unpopular at home for his actions as President”
    ___________

    Absolutely agree and its about getting the correct balance. The last thing I want for a post Brexit UK is to be in the pockets of Donald Trump or any American administration like we were under Blair.

  30. I don’t think anyone seriously doubts that the UK should seek to foster ties with the US, especially at this time, but I do feel that there is a political balancing act to be played, and so far May seems to be leaning far too heavily in the wrong direction.

    Her language is being set very firmly against Trump’s unpopular messages (unpopular here in the UK) and May’s behavious does rather smack of desparation to find a friend – any friend.

    I still feel that Brexiteers are inhabiting that over confident world of the victor, with the added danger that they are now believing their own hype. Again, I’m struck with the analysis from the Bank of England, that an emergency base rate cut to ever more ridiculous levels and pumping of even more QE effectively save a quarter of a million UK jobs.

    This has lulled leavers into a false sense of security. Overall, it might have been better all round to let those jobs go and ensure that the Brexit negotiations were undertaken with a more relaistic sense of the potential outcomes, instead of under the impenetrable cloud of fairy dust that has been sprinkled across the land. That way we might now have greater clarity about what is at stake, but for now, that largely remains hidden.

  31. PETER cAIRNS

    What an interesting post-highlighting as it does the difference between pragmatic concentration on objectives & outcomes ; and absolutist belief in a “Right Way”.

    To take your examples in turn:-

    @”The Shared Society; Open to fee trade and low tax low regulation, but bosses must be fair to workers.”

    Where is the conflict between a State pursuing Free Trade objectives & a State which promotes the best interests of employees.? As to “low” tax & regulation, this is a comparative term & only has meaning in context.

    @”Low taxes and less interference for the state but the state will intervene to protect people.”

    Again-what is “low”. ?Taxes need to provide the public services required. May has -in terms-stated her intention to run a government which intervenes on behalf of people in need.

    @”We are leaving the EU but want to have all the benefits and none of the costs.”

    You are assuming that the opening gambit in a negotiation is the acceptable outcome envisaged. It is hardly ever the case-and anyway you cannot know this in respect of Brexit.

    @”The US and Britain can lead the post Brexit world, even though it’s America First and we still want the closest relationship with Europe.”

    You do not know what Trump’s attitude to trade with UK is yet-what he has told you is that he believes in controlleable bilateral arrangements , and not multi-country, intercontinental ones.
    Why should UK/EU relations prejudice UK/EU relations?

    @”The Trump Whitehouse wants closer relations with Russia and is heading for conflict with China, we are at odds with Russia and costing up to China but we want to lead the world with the US.”

    When did international relationships of this sort ever suit all parties, including UK & USA? Geo-politics is fundamentally fluid . We just have to cope with it-like we always have-and May will do her best to influence Trump in the direction she wants. I mean it isn’t as if Obama’s foreign policy saved the planet is it?

  32. BIGFATRON
    “I’m puzzled by this ‘no Lib Dem revival’ meme, as we went through this only two days ago”
    ___________

    We did indeed and I conceded that the Lib/Dems were quite a bit up on their 2015 GE bombshell. However I also stated that for the Lib/Dems to have any meaningful breakthrough they should be polling around 20%….I’ve not seen that yet.

    If Lib/Dem supporters are quite happy and content that they are polling between 10 and 14% then I’m afraid they must have extremely low expectations for Tim Farron.

    Gaining little bits n bobs in by-elections or polling a little better in the former LibDem heartlands of the Yovil environs ain’t my idea of a party on the up.

  33. ALEC

    @”This has lulled leavers into a false sense of security.”

    The evidence points to a resigned pragmatism actuallY :-

    “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or
    wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”
    46/42 Right/Wrong

    “Do you think Britain will be economically better
    or worse off after we leave the European
    Union, or will it make no difference?”
    40/29 Worse/Better

    YouGov / The Times Survey Results
    Sample Size: 1654 GB Adults
    Fieldwork: 17th – 18th January 2017

  34. COLIN

    ” When did international relationships of this sort ever suit all parties, including UK & USA? Geo-politics is fundamentally fluid . We just have to cope with it-like we always have-and May will do her best to influence Trump in the direction she wants. I mean it isn’t as if Obama’s foreign policy saved the planet is it?”
    ________

    Exactly and the rest of your post…..superb :-)

  35. @Colin – I think your reply to @Peter cairn’s isn’t that far apart from his original post. I don’t believe he is drawing a line between pragmatic and absolutist paths, and many of your specific points actually tend to back up what he says, in some ways.

    Peter is saying that it is likely that choices will need to be made, and you are agreeing by saying things like – “You are assuming that the opening gambit in a negotiation is the acceptable outcome envisaged. It is hardly ever the case-and anyway you cannot know this in respect of Brexit.”.

    One other point – where you say “I mean it isn’t as if Obama’s foreign policy saved the planet is it?” you may want to make a slight clarification.

    Obama’s acceptance of the Paris Climate Accord may very well have ‘saved the plant’, in some ways at least. The US move was instrumental in getting China onside, and this has been a massive leap forward in the fight against a crisis that dwarves anything else currently going on.

  36. Jasper 22,

    “Scotland would be subject to tariffs on its exports to the UK”

    And UK exports the same way!

    In 1965 Eire exported and Imported 75% from and to the UK, now it’s less than 30% both ways. It was about 1980 when it’s exports to the EU exceeded it’s exports to the UK now they are double.

    The argument is little different from that of Brexit. the Uk sends 51% of exports to the EU, but we are leaving and those in favour believe we will prosper.

    Equally as patterns of trade inevitably shift their will be many opportunities for EU exports to Scotland to replace UK ones and Scotland will be well placed to substitute Uk ones to the EU.

    “Scotland would have to apply to join the EU.”

    Never been worried about that, Spain will grumble but Germany won’t and they pay the bills.

    “Scotland would have to decide what currency to use…”foreign”pound, useless Euro, new “jockdollar” ??”

    All three as possible, and your “Useless Euro”, is more widely used more widely traded, more widely held and has a bigger economy than Sterling. It also has a queue of Countries wanting to join.

    “Scotland would not be a member of NATO – the SNP is against nuclear weapons.”

    The SNP policy on Nuclear weapons is identical to that currently, and for the last quarter century, adopted by Canada and Norway. Both long standing Nato members and no UK government has ever objected let alone called for them to be expelled!

    Assuming o course Nato isn’t broken by Trump or the EU doesn’t move to replace it

    “I would suggest a bit different to Britain leaving the EU.”

    I’d suggest their are actually quite a few parallels.

    I suspect it would be tougher than Brexit but in the long term I think we are better off in and committed too a European partnership than alone in the world or semi detached from our neighbours

    Peter.

  37. Alec

    ” against a crisis that dwarves anything else currently going on.”

    Totally disagree with that, i think that the growth in human population makes global warming look like a flea-bite.

  38. ALEC

    I refer you to his last two paragraphs.

    He sees pragmatism -and apparently conventional negotiating strategy-as “fence sitting”.

    Re Obama-I was really thinking of Syria, Iran, Palestine , etc etc.

  39. @Allan Christie

    So what you are saying is that a party whose poll rating is demonstrably increasing isn’t necessarily, in your view, a part that is ‘reviving’ or ‘on the up’?

    That seems internally contradictory to me, but hey ho…

    I don’t want to speak for LibDem members, I am sure that they can do so for themselves.

    Objectively, I would assume that they are reasonably happy to have moved up by 2-3% in three months (10% is a lot better than 7%!), won a spectacular parliamentary by-election, and nearly doubled membership; however I guess that doesn’t mean that they are happy to stop there – presumably the next targets for them are improved showings in Stoke and Copeland, and some significant gains at the May locals.

    The LibDem revival may stall or go into reverse in the next few months, but it certainly exists…

  40. Alec

    “This has lulled leavers into a false sense of security.

    That’s one view, and as Colin points out, not reflected in the polling. It seems clear that the majority want to leave despite thinking the economic effects in the short term will be negative. Something I pointed out some days ago.

    The latest Opinium poll suggest that remainers are changing their minds and joining the leavers who now have an 14% lead for right decision.

    Somerjohn

    What todays GDP figures confirm is how wrong all those who forceast an immediate trashing of UK GDP. As you say there is a long way to go and as you know the say there could be problems ahead which as you know many including many who voted to leave accept in the short term.

    The Spanish story is good news but as you might expect I would say despite the Euro problem. Mind I am much happier with 2.1& GDP growth and unemplyment at 4.8% compared with 3.1% GDP growth and 24% unemplyment.

  41. Jasper
    “On what economic basis does the Scottish First Minister think the European Union is better for Scotland than the British Union?”

    Brillo had Mr Hosie over a barrel yesterday on DP, when said Hosie was making up stats to suit his case. Mr Brillo is always well prepared and interviewees from whatever side, rarely get away with it.

    Alec

    I am totally puzzled by your comment, “Mays behaviour does smack of desperation to find a friend, any friend”.

    What behaviour? Accepting an invitation to be the first world leader to meet with the top man in the largest economy in the world?
    What should she have done? Declined and played hard to get just because he has made a few unacceptable comments? Said, oh no, Donald, you should meet Mrs Merkel first, she is much senior to me?
    And he is hardly, ‘any friend’.

    Let’s face it, Obama never did the UK any favours, back of the queue and all that. Trump needs to be handled with care certainly, but May is no Blair – she won’t be dazzled in the headlights.

    Of course Mrs Merkel is no doubt a tad annoyed.

  42. ALEC
    “@Colin – I think your reply to @Peter cairn’s isn’t that far apart from his original post.”
    I might be tempted to agree except that PC begins
    “Mays continual attempts to face two ways at once ” of which Colin points out many are not incompatible,
    while PC ends by making clear he thinks they are “sitting on the fence cherrypicking from both sides ”

    I wonder what PC would think of “We believe people should have as much freedom under the law as possible, but we will increase police resources to ensure those who break the law are brought to justice.”

    “a massive leap forward in the fight against a crisis that dwarves anything else currently going on.”
    What concerns me about ‘climate change’ as ‘global warming’ is now called is that if the climate scientists are right about what is happening, but wrong about its causes, we are spending a lot of money to no purpose, which should perhaps be spent on trying to deal with the effects of climate change, rather than trying to prevent them. Some of them, in some places, are beneficial.
    @TOH “the growth in human population makes global warming look like a flea-bite.” Don’t worry. You can leave that to diseases resistant to antibiotics. Unless we can maybe replace antibiotics with human genetic engineering.

  43. Actually this debate on the Libems gets more ridiculous, as the Yougov poll has been reported in here wrong. thwey are actually flat to last week at 11.

    The correct result is:

    Tories 42% (+3%)
    Labour 25% (-3%)
    UKIP 12% (-1%)
    LDem 11% (n/c)
    Other 9% (-2%)

  44. Somerjohn

    Spain had an advantage in the economic performance of not really having a political (the notion what constitutes a government varies country by country) government. :-)

  45. @Dave
    Re Climate change, it is very hard to see how scientists can be wrong.
    – CO2 PPM can be measured in secondary school science class – we know with certainty that it is up 50% in a couple of decades
    – we know how many millions of tonnes of coal, oil and gas that we burn each year, and it correlates beautifully with the CO2 growth
    – the effect of greenhouse gases on head conduction is again demonstrable at secondary school science level.

    So the mechanism is really easily understood and demonstrable if people can be bothered to check for themselves.

    What is tricky is to understand the effect of feedback loops and greenhouse gas sinks; i.e. exactly how will the natural world react to increasing greenhouse gas emissions – will it absorb and mitigate the temperature impact, or feed back and accelerate it?

    So far we have seen (thank god!) a slower reaction in terms of temperature to rates of greenhouse gas increase than models predicted; that doesn’t mean that the basic science is wrong, but that those doing the research are trying to model an incredibly complex system that is only partly understood.

    Slowing down rates of greenhouse gas emission is never going to harm the environment, of that we can be 100% sure; so why not follow the precautionary principle and do it?

  46. Sorry, that should be ‘heat’, not ‘head’!

  47. ToH: ” I am much happier with 2.1& GDP growth and unemplyment at 4.8% compared with 3.1% GDP growth and 24% unemployment.”

    As I posted, Spanish unemployment has been falling rapidly for three years. It is now at 18.9%, not the 24% you cite.

    There’s another statistic you might ponder:

    2015 BoP: Spain $16.2bn surplus; UK $152.9bn deficit.
    (source: world bank)

  48. Brexit Bill published.

    Couldn’t really be shorter.

    Power to notify withdrawal from the EU
    .

    (1)

    The Prime Minister may notify, under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European
    Union, the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the EU.
    .

    (2)

    This section has effect despite any provision made by or under the European
    5Communities Act 1972 or any other enactment.

  49. SOMERJOHN

    Obviously i agree with your last statistic, Touché as you might say.
    Sorry about the error on Spanish unemplyment, my memory let me down on that one. Still think 4.8% and still falling looks better than 18.9% and still falling though.

  50. BIG FAT Ron

    You’re quoting last week’s YouGov.

    http://opinionbee.uk/

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