Several newspapers last night reported a “poll” commissioned by Labourleave in Stoke on Trent. It claimed to show UKIP on 35%, Labour on 25% and the Tories on 10%.

Labourleave have today put up this document. It is fair to say it is light on methodological detail.

There is no sign of who did the fieldwork, how the data was weighted or even what mode it was conducted by. We do not have any information about the demographics of the achieved sample. Worryingly it doesn’t even specify that it was specifically Stoke Central though I can only assume it was. All we have is a sample size of 182. In a random sample this would give a huge margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points (despite the 4% it claims in the document)

My understanding is it comes from Labourleave convassing their own database of contacts in Stoke (though there has also been a suggestion that it was a Facebook poll). Obviously something like that brings a heavy risk of bias depending on who they have on their database and what skews may be present. With all those concerns, one can put very little weight upon the results. Even if details are forthcoming and it turns out it was actually conducted and weighted in an appropriate way, the tiny sample size renders it of limited use.

For now – at least until more detail is forthcoming – ignore.


866 Responses to “Labourleave “poll” in Stoke”

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  1. @LASZLO

    See
    http://www.trinitymirror.com/documents/brands-page/tm-print-portfolio-25-october.pdf

    [Then I stand corrected! Must have been an out of date list- AW]

  2. MBRUNO
    @Allan Christie:” Trump is someone who seems to take everything personally. If the state visit were called off, he would be extremely angry and that would greatly impact any trade talks with the UK. I doubt the British government will do that then”
    ________

    Totally agree with you. It’s a difficult balancing act for the UK..seen to be tough on Trump and risk trade talks or take a more softer candid approach which might not go down well with large sections of the public.

    However I think the public will judge TM on any future trade deals with the USA and other countries rather than just singly judge her on her reactions over Trumps manifesto pledges.

  3. MBRUNO
    “BTW, let’s not forget that the president of China and even the emperor of Japan have also faced protests on state visits to the UK and that HM The Queen hosted many people worse than Trump in the past (e.g, Mugabe, Ceaucescu, etc.) So, let’s not overplay the significance of the state visit”
    _________

    In total agreement again…

  4. Re the online petition. Let’s not forget that not so long ago when Trump made a campaign pledge to ban Muslims from the USA, there was a petition to ban him from the UK which got half a million signatures. However there was a rival one at the same time to ban all Muslims from the UK, which got (IIRC) over 450,000.

    So just because there’s a petition with a lot of signatures doesn’t mean that there aren’t plenty of people with an opposite view.

    As ever, polling on the subject will be very interesting.

  5. hughbie1983

    Welcome. First posts usually await moderation – until Anthony decides that you are safe enough to allow to post freely.

    Mind you, I’m sure he often regrets having decided to let some of us on – and the naughty step often beckons. :-)

    Thanks for those graphs of Presidential approval. Fascinating.

  6. AW
    ” I always imagine the comments section here like a pub (except, alas, without the booze) – ”

    Speak for yourself! Sorry, couldn’t resist :-)

  7. OldNat

    Cool. Thanks for setting me straight. I get it.

  8. Online petitions….the first thing I would put in room 101.

    I do get bombarded with them, and I just ignore the lot. (like the Government does).

    Sadly, I think more and more people consider signing them substitute for political activity. People get so ragged off about x,y or z, they sign a petition……

    I think they are a creation to divert folk from real activism (fighting elections, organising locally, direct action), and conduct this energy away into a useless dead-end, readily ignored.

    As @Pete B highlighted, petitions of similar sizes demand contradictory action, so can’t be fulfilled anyway.

    So I will sign one online petition, and that is to ban them altogether.

  9. Candy,
    “why do the Americans venerate Churchill over Roosevelt?”

    Perhaps because he was an American who got to rule britain? You could regard trotting out his bust as a reminder of US dominance, the american who saved Britain.

    Graham,
    ” if at some point in the future some parts of Scotland vote against Independence in the context of an overall Yes result, I would hope that the areas concerned would be given mini local Referendums to give them the option of remaining within the rest of the UK”

    Ah, so there is precedent for London and scotland staying part of the EU if the rest of England secedes?

  10. From Number Cruncher

    Interesting detail from @LucidTalk’s upcoming NI poll – evidence of much increased preference switching between SDLP and UUP and vice versa

    In other words, supporters of moderate parties using their lower preferences on each other, rather than splitting along community lines

  11. Danny @ Graham

    It’s a remarkable aspect of wishful thinking on the part of some Unionists to imagine that those deciding that Scotland should remain part of the UK (a perfectly respectable stance to take) means that, should Scotland become independent, they would then want to leave Scotland to become (effectively) part of England.

    At the same time, they take the position that Scotland is part of the UK, and must leave the EU since the majority of UK voters decided to do so.

    Very substantial cognitive dissonance at work there!

  12. via Britain Elects – YG poll

    On how the government is doing at negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union:
    Well: 18% (-7)
    Badly: 52% (+6)

  13. A potentially serious constitutional issue developing at Dulles International Airport in Washington. Officials.of the federal border agency are defying a Federal Court order to allow attorneys access to the people they have detained under the Trump EO. Attorneys are now seeking a contempt order from the Court which could be enforced by Federal Marshals. Will the Executive defy the Courts?

  14. @oldnat

    I suppose some of the “badly” in that poll could be Brexiters who think it is all too slow?

  15. I am a Tory and I abhor Trump – May did very well over there and was right not to respond to media questions – she and the Government and Foreign Secretary have today made it clear what our stance is on this matter. Corbyn and Farron just chasing stories both not credible national leaders.

  16. Hireton

    “Will the Executive defy the Courts?”

    My understanding is that Americans have a reverence for “the Constitution”. No matter how little they actually understand it, it seems to be something that they seem to see as defining themselves.

    You are asking the same question that was asked in the USA during the Nixon years.

    SoCalLiberal might be able to help with discussion of this – but he may well be at an airport doing pro bono work.

  17. Hireton

    I’m also presuming that “badly” includes lots of folk who thought we were/would/should be out of the EU already

  18. GUYMONDE

    @”(s)he always came across as one of the least partisan/biased ”

    This is an interesting point.

    It follows from AW’s Comments Policy that we should not be able to detect party sympathy in UKPR posts. At least not overtly or explicitly-because such comments would be removed & we would not be able to read them.

    But of course AW’s flexible approach facilitates a huge range of discussion on all sorts of topics with a political angle. To restrict us to pure psephology would be stultifying.

    And so most long term commentators have come to understand each others political inclination by reading the point of view most favoured by others. We accept it & it generally works well as an unspoken sub text to all our exchanges.

    In my view Assiduosity was no different to anyone else here in this regard & his/her political inclination was evident from his/her comments.

  19. Colin
    “In my view Assiduosity was no different to anyone else here in this regard & his/her political inclination was evident from his/her comments.”

    And by who he usually argued with.

  20. I note the outrage about America. It is a pity that the same outrage was not directed At the EU and Mrs merkel when she blocked an early deal on the status of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU.

    The uncertainty and distress of that is,one would think, surely as important .Sadly, not so, it seems, to the outraged and offended.

    I note the Mayor of London has supported no state visit while the ban is in place in the safe knowledge that the ban is for 4 months and the visit scheduled for after that. Nifty footwork.

  21. @mbruno

    ‘re state visits all true but perhaps we expect rather higher standards of the POTUS especially given our extra “special relationship”?

    Petition at 800,000 signatures now.

  22. I wonder who those 800,000 are? Even I didn’t think there were that many BBC luvvies.

    G’night all.

  23. @S Thomas – “I note the outrage about America. It is a pity that the same outrage was not directed At the EU and Mrs merkel when she blocked an early deal on the status of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU.”

    You really do need to get your facts straight here. Article 50 has not been activated, so at present the UK is not leaving the EU. There are therefore no negotiations to be done.

    If and when the UK chooses to inform the EU that we are leaving, then the negotiations can start. Merkel didn’t block anything. The UK blocked the negotiations by declining to start them.

    At least the outrage is no longer ‘faux’, so perhaps we are making some progress.

  24. “Trump administration officials are discussing the possibility of asking foreign visitors to disclose all websites and social media sites they visit, and to share the contacts in their cell phones. If the foreign visitor declines to share such information, he or she could be denied entry. Sources told CNN that the idea is just in the preliminary discussion level.”

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/29/politics/donald-trump-immigrant-policy-social-media-contacts/index.html

    For visitors from the UK, why don’t they just ask GCHQ? They’ll have a far more reliable list of all the websites that I have visited, than I could possibly remember – and how big is the form to enter the details on going to be?

    These guys are certifiable.

  25. @oldnat

    Apparently three Congressmen are at Dulles as well and also being given the turnaround by the CBP. So all.3 branches involved now.

  26. @Assiduously

    I hope you continue to post. Your input is thoughtful and thought provoking.

    I think if you look back at Colin’s original comment it is pretty obvious what he was referring to in the context of the Trump ban, something Anthony has already pointed out and that Colin has confirmed. That’s why I also asked for an Apples to Apples comparison.

    @MBRUNO

    The chief reason that the USA will know whether you have dual nationality as a British citizen is probably two-fold.

    1) The ESTA visa waiver that you must fill out to enter the USA demands to know if you hold other nationalities and passports and asks for them to be listed. Same goes for other visas.

    2) I would be amazed if the UK and USA intelligence authorities have not swapped databases on basic info like this. The FVEY (five eyes) use each other to circumvent legislation to spy on each other.

    @OLDNAT “On how the government is doing at negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union:”

    It’s a bit daft this question as negotiations haven’t started and the EU refuses any prior negotiation to A50 being tabled.

    Perhaps the 18% who think they are going well are ultra-Remainers who see no A50 and no negotiations as a good thing?

    Agree with you RE: Grahams comment. There is no precedent that says any area of Scotland has ever been part of England. Apart from the odd border skirmish, the border has been one of the world’s oldest and most stable borders.

    However in 1468, The King of Denmark, Norway and Sweden, gave the Orkney Isles to James III of Scotland as a royal dowry. The Shetlands were sold for a further 8,000 florins. Maybe the Orkney Isles and the Shetlands could secede and pick one of the Scandinavian countries to re-join! ;)

  27. Really quite hard to appreciate the extent and tone of news coverage in another country (hard enough in the UK) but it does begin to look like the Trump immigration story is starting to morph into something altogether more toxic for him.

    My initial impression was that he was quite happy with the liberal outrage (faux or not – doesn’t really matter) as this was his normal way of doing things – get his opponents frothing at the mouth while his Breibart army sat back and lapped it all up.

    However, the national and global reaction does seem to be far stronger than they expected, and the stories now emerging are also veering deep into the territory of incompetence. The various branches of government were seemingly unaware of what the policy actually meant, or more likely – and more damagingly – the president didn’t understand the implications of what was in his own executive order.

    The smack of firm government is one thing, but if that smacks of incompetence then that becomes something else altogether. Tonight, that looks like the way the coverage is going, which is a first warning shot that Trump needs to pay attention to all those expert officials and listen to their advice. Given the man’s character, I suspect this may be the first of many such foul ups.

  28. One other thing to watch – IMF warns that the Greek debt crisis could erupt again if a deal isn’t negotiation within three weeks. They say further debt relief is essential to avoid Greece’s debt becoming uncontrollable.

    Big choices here for the EU, just as Brexit kicks off. I’m been telling my many remainer friends who expect Brexit to be a disaster to keep an eye on Greece, as it’s just as likely that Greece implodes again and creates a renewed sense of crisis within the EU.

    I suspect 2017 could go either way with regards public perception of the EU and the UK’s relationship with it.

  29. Sea Change

    The Northern Isles do have option, though Orkney’s resources are much more limited than Shetland’s..

    They’re canny folk, and sensibly will look to their own advantage. Pity more on mainland Scotland didn’t take the same position!

    What would be utterly foolish for Shetland would be to become an enclave of rUK. They would only have access to the resources within the consequent 12 mile limit.

    Applying to become part of another state with a contiguous maritime border would certainly be an option – though that limits the options to Norway or Denmark (via Faroes).

  30. @seachange

    Dual nationality for American immigration purposes includes birth in another country not just formal citizenship. So that will be clear from anybody’s British passport.

  31. @Oldnat
    “These guys are certifiable.”
    That’s you stuffed then

  32. @HIRETON

    Yes that’s understood. The opposite situation often occurs when a British subject is born in the UK but has one or both parents born in another country and they then can claim citizenship of that country as well. That does not show up on the UK passport obviously. The ESTA question is designed to reveal that.

  33. Guymonde

    “That’s you stuffed then”

    Yep. They don’t even need to read any of my posts though. That I visit a site dedicated to reporting on “polacks” in the UK will stuff the lot of us!

    As for Anthony! Guantanamo beckons.

  34. On Trump

    I’ve tended to avoid talking about his policies and only refer to how his election is useful to the UK in regards to the upcoming negotiations with the EU.

    One thing that has become abundantly clear is he is following through on his manifesto commitments. The States voted him in based on his campaign rhetoric and commitments.

    It seems odd there is such surprised outcry when he carries them out.

    Let’s not get caught up on whether they are well thought through or not. The interesting point in my mind is will his base support be eroded by keeping to his promises or not?

    The other thing that has yet to be mentioned. Is that from a UK perspective, Boris Johnson has already secured exemption for UK dual-nationals. Surely that is confirmation of the special relationship and a victory for the government (however minor in realpolitik terms such a gesture really is).

  35. Sea Change

    Of course, you are in the USA at the moment aren’t you?

    If you come across interesting polling there, do keep us up to date.

  36. There’s an interesting (and long) reflection on Trump, May et al in HuffPost, here:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/trump-refugee-ban-how-theresa-mays-us-and-turkey-trip-ended-in-political-firestorm_uk_588e503be4b077309837c96b?4th1xe1ilxf94fgvi

    “Little noticed back in the UK, Canada’s PM Justin Trudeau had won a similar clarification in the early hours of Sunday. Trudeau, who has been highly critical of the Trump administration, talked to Trump national security advisor Mike Flynn and got a clarification that dual nationals would not be affected.

    Trudeau had actually got his clarification about 15 hours before the Brits announced it, partly because of the time difference but also because No.10 had been failed to get to the White House after May landed in Heathrow on Saturday night. After Johnson talked to Kushner on Sunday afternoon, the FCO agreed it would not ‘spin’ the news as an ‘exemption’.”

    Looks like the FCO omitted to let @Sea Change know :)

  37. “Let’s not get caught up on whether they are well thought through or not. The interesting point in my mind is will his base support be eroded by keeping to his promises or not?”

    Too true. Thing is, Trump’s ‘base support’, is a mixed bag – you have to build coalitions to bag the presidency. What suits rust belt new faithful doesn’t delight the traditional Southern conservatives. Please libertarians, appal the religious freedom seekers, Mormons, SDAs. etc etc

    My reading of the numbers – just mine mind – is that he won the presidency by attracting enough hacked off blue collar Dems in the right places with his blunt message and managed not to put off too many of the old faithful to keep the red state s nice and safe. Clinton couldn’t get her people to the polls.

    Cutting to the chase, delivering some of his promises could hack off some of his voters. There are plenty people who voted Trump hoping he wouldn’t do what he said – now ain’t that a thing?

  38. GUYMONDE – Well it appears the FCO is spinning that way in the press!

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/29/donald-trumps-ban-refugees-us-president-insists-policy-not-against/

    That the USA has a close relationship with Canada has never been open to question. It has a special visa system for Canadians distinct from all others.

    I hardly think that getting the UK an opt-out is not a PR victory for the government.

  39. @OLDNAT – Only over for a few days but will do.

    On Labour & Brexit
    ————————–

    It’s been stated that up to 7 front benches are due to resign and around 100 Labour MPs are set to vote against A50.

    The leadership are saying they will be able to return “in a few months”.

    This raises 2 issues:

    1) If that many of the front bench resigns and that many MPs revolt against A50, the blow-back in the Stoke and Copeland by-elections could be very considerable.

    2) If front benches can vote with impunity knowing there will not be any long term effects to their career, what does that mean for collective responsibility and the means for Corbyn to govern the party?

    Brexit is turning into an unmitigated disaster for Labour.

  40. @Sea Change
    It’s not clear to me whether it’s a UK opt-out.

    The Boris statement says
    “- The Presidential executive order only applies to individuals travelling from one of the seven named countries.
    – If you are travelling to the US from anywhere other than one of those countries (for instance, the UK) the executive order does not apply to you and you will experience no extra checks regardless of your nationality or your place of birth.
    – If you are a UK national who happens to be travelling from one of those countries to the US, then the order does not apply to you – even if you were born in one of those countries.
    – If you are a dual citizen of one of those countries travelling to the US from OUTSIDE those countries then the order does not apply to you.

  41. Continued due to rogue posting…
    The only thing that may be ‘special’ for the UK is the third point, but I’m guessing that ‘if you are UK national’ really means ‘if you are a national from a country that’s part of the visa waiver programme’
    If that guess is right, there’s no exemption at all, it’s just that the US authorities have cleaned up the ambiguity and general mess that the Donald’s original order sowed.

  42. @Oldnat
    ‘It’s a remarkable aspect of wishful thinking on the part of some Unionists to imagine that those deciding that Scotland should remain part of the UK (a perfectly respectable stance to take) means that, should Scotland become independent, they would then want to leave Scotland to become (effectively) part of England.’

    That is a non sequitur. The Ulster Counties do not consider themselves to be part of England – they remain Irish but have no wish to be part of the Irish Republic and prefer to remain within the UK. I am simply suggesting that the same option be offered – not imposed on – to those parts of Scotland that may have voted against Independence in the context of an overall Yes vote.

  43. On the Canadian and British exemptions, I believe it matches Trump’s national ideology of US identity being associated somehow with the so-called “Anglosphere”,

    I am particularly interested in following how Trump’s relationship with Trudeau (a French Canadian with a Scottish grandfather and an English-speaking mother) will develop in the future. Trudeau is a very liberal prime minister, with positions that are sharply in contrast with Trump’s. Canada also has a trade surplus with the US, although, according to the CBC, if energy is excluded, it actually turns into a deficit, and the surplus anyway is only about half of the one that Mexico has with the US.

    In any case,Canada is getting a much better trreatment from Trump than Mexico, even though, objectively, the president should also have similar grievances with Canada and would normally not see eye to eye with Trudeau on most policy issues. Is that solely because Canada is a “white country” where people happen to speak English with an American accent (except for a 20 % or so French minority) ?

  44. @Sea Change
    ‘Brexit is turning into an unmitigated disaster for Labour.’

    But why should it be any more of a disaster than what occurred in 1971 when the Deputy Leader voted against a Three line Whip in support of the EEC terms negotiated by the Heath Government? Nobody resigned – or was sacked – from the Labour Front Bench at that time. I would seriously suggest that the internal divisions were a good deal greater at that time!

  45. LudlowNewBoy

    Thank you very much. I will redo my maps (easy with today’s software).

    Two things about it. One is that YouGov uses newspaper readership occasionally (or at least use to – is there a tiny factor of error?). The other one is that I would be very surprised if Trinity Mirror didn’t use their syndicate articles in the by elections.

    ——

    Anthony Wells

    I know I asked it before (without an answer, fair enough, I understand it), but let me ask it again (really, really last time). Before the 2015 elections YouGov used all kinds of proxy measures to give a probability for voting shares. These were removed on the day of the elections from Yougov’s website (until then even the raw data (ok, not very raw) could be harvested). However, I know that they worked for most of the NW. Is there anything, I assume Yougov played around with the numbers a bit, is there anything meaningful in those figures?

  46. It is none of my business, but if JC chooses this vote to show his authority, he is making a personal mistake.

    It is not only about that open letter in the Observer, but a long (ok three months) fermenting discontent that comes out in various social media, and pro-Corbyn blogs (some).

    It seems to me that the membership is shifting again (although not yet ready to ditch Corbyn). Essentially along the lines of opposing the Conservatives on all issues, hence creating some relevance, hence we see what will happen to UKIP (and we are ready to be nasty with them). Whether it is meaningful, I don’t know here in metropolitan NW, but an argument could be put together along the lines that wouldn’t have less popularity than the current one. It is also possible that it is a broad anti-Corbyn coalition led by the centre-right (of Labour) in this disguise, although I haven’t seen any apevidence, but I’m seeking some explanation for JC’s stubbornness.

  47. @Graham “But why should it be any more of a disaster than what occurred in 1971 when the Deputy Leader voted against a Three line Whip in support of the EEC terms negotiated by the Heath Government? Nobody resigned – or was sacked – from the Labour Front Bench at that time. I would seriously suggest that the internal divisions were a good deal greater at that time!”

    The problem is that 70% of their constituencies voted out and if Labour is perceived to be fighting against A50 they could pay a very heavy electoral price

    There is no path to power going in this direction. They need to back A50 then claim the Tories have screwed up the resulting negotiations.

  48. @Graham

    Are you suggesting that we should entertain the idea of splitting Scotland into Northern Scotland and Southern Scotland (or whatever) as what happened with Ulster?

    Please No. I think 100 hundred year old headache is enough thank you very much!

  49. @Sea Change
    ‘Are you suggesting that we should entertain the idea of splitting Scotland into Northern Scotland and Southern Scotland (or whatever) as what happened with Ulster?’

    I am not suggesting anything. It should be a matter for the areas concerned to decide. I do not believe that ‘No’ areas should be forced to join an Independent Scotland against their will. There is also a further point in that given the right of Scotland to become independent from the UK , there may be parts of Scotlant which wish to become indepndent fro Scotland! The Border areas and the Orkneys & Shetlands most obviously come to mind.

  50. @Sea Change
    ‘The problem is that 70% of their constituencies voted out and if Labour is perceived to be fighting against A50 they could pay a very heavy electoral price’

    I continue to disagree with the assumption that how people voted in the June 2016 Referendum will determine party political alleigance at future General Elections. How much sign is there really that Tory voters who supported Remain are going to switch en masse to the LibDems?

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