Several newspapers last night reported a “poll” commissioned by Labourleave in Stoke on Trent. It claimed to show UKIP on 35%, Labour on 25% and the Tories on 10%.

Labourleave have today put up this document. It is fair to say it is light on methodological detail.

There is no sign of who did the fieldwork, how the data was weighted or even what mode it was conducted by. We do not have any information about the demographics of the achieved sample. Worryingly it doesn’t even specify that it was specifically Stoke Central though I can only assume it was. All we have is a sample size of 182. In a random sample this would give a huge margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points (despite the 4% it claims in the document)

My understanding is it comes from Labourleave convassing their own database of contacts in Stoke (though there has also been a suggestion that it was a Facebook poll). Obviously something like that brings a heavy risk of bias depending on who they have on their database and what skews may be present. With all those concerns, one can put very little weight upon the results. Even if details are forthcoming and it turns out it was actually conducted and weighted in an appropriate way, the tiny sample size renders it of limited use.

For now – at least until more detail is forthcoming – ignore.


866 Responses to “Labourleave “poll” in Stoke”

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  1. @Alec

    Incompetent or not, he sets the media afire. I pass no comment on his actual policies I just look at the underlying strategy and its possible positive or negative consequences on the UK.

    I would be surprised if the national security council appointments did not raise private concerns at No.10.

  2. @alec

    Yes Trump is listening to white supremacist Christain fundamentalists in his court. Look out for a wide ranging anti-gay Executive Order in the next few days which will legitimise and institutionalise federal discrimination against LGBT people.

  3. @Candy – “Meanwhile, he has just signed a very serious executive order saying that for every federal regulation enacted, two must be recinded:…”

    Yeah, but which two executive orders has he rescinded?

  4. What a lot of posts to catch up on!

    Brief responses to those that I recall having commented to me

    Sam

    Interesting figures from NI. I understand that tomorrow’s data from the Lucid Talk poll show a willingness among SDLP and UUP voters to interchange preferences against the more fundamentalist SF and DUP. Meanwhile SF indicating that they can continue to work with the DUP, while DUP folk becoming irate about Kenny’s suggestion that FG could form a coalition with SF.

    Millie

    I thought that I had mentioned the possibility of an island group becoming independent. point was that for Shetland that would be more viable than for Orkney. For neither would it make the remotest sense to continue as enclaves of the UK, as their EEZ would be miniscule.

    Graham

    I really don’t think you have thought through the implications of what you suggest on having referendums in every part of a polity where a majority voted in a different way from the polity as a whole.

    If you were expressing that as a general principle, and applying it to the most recent referendum, then that might have interesting consequences.

  5. Oops sorry about my last comment which has been put in the naughty bin.

    TM is sticking to her guns over the Trump state visit.

    Despite the online petition and the protests….I honestly can’t see it damaging the Tory party VI in the polls and and the Kippers will be delighted at the Trump visit. By the time the visit takes place much of Trumps controversial policies will probably have been watered down a notch or two.

  6. I don’t think there has been much comment so far on the French Socialist Party’s Leadership win at the weekend of Benoit Harmon dubbed the “French Jeremy Corbyn”.

    His policies include reducing the working week to 32 hours – effectively a four day week, making it harder yet still to to fire workers (it’s extremely hard to fire people in France anyway – not sure how that will help hiring new workers), paying every French citizen 750 Euros a month, being much more open to Multiculturalism and taxing robots (I’m not making this up).

    Nobody thinks he has a hope in hell of winning, unsurprisingly, and his current odds are 30-1. However this has given Le Pen more cause for optimism because of the further fragmentation of the vote on the Left and the serious problems that have tarnished Fillon.

    This in turn has led to the euro bond rates increasing for France, Italy and Portugal as Le Pen’s policy is to end the Euro.

  7. @ CMJ:

    “UKIP need a 8.3% swing to take Stoke Central from Labour. On the new boundaries UKIP start winning seats with a 6.5% swing, 10% gains 3 seats,15% gains 15 seats and 20% gains 30 seats.
    Those look like really improbable swings”

    Particularly improbably, given their notable failure to achieve any swing at all in local by-elections, or to show improvement over 2015 in the polls.

    Yes, they’ll pick up some support from Labour – but not too much, given Nuttall’s reported support for privatising the NHS. They’ll lose some to Cons, and our own charts even show some Kippoer loss to LD.

    Cons claim to have given up on Stoke – but they’ll still retain loyal voters who can’t stomach UKIP’s perceived bigotry. They’ll pick up some support from moderate Labour deserters – but lose a chunk of their Remain voters to LD.

    Labour could lose voters on all sides – to disillusioned, demoralized supporters just staying away, some peeling away to Con and to UKIP, and a fair chunk, based on polling and your charts to LD.

    The 2015 election had a significant chunk for “Independent”. Who knows what they will do?

    In what is effectively a 4 way contest, Stoke could conceivably go any way at all, depending on the precise balance between these conflicting movements – but I do not see UKIP win as particularly likely.

  8. Panelbase have published their Scottish poll tables –

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181w9tablesforpublication300117.pdf

    Some questions didn’t seem to feature in press reports, so they’re worth a look.

    “Do you think Scotland’s economy will be stronger or weaker after leaving the EU than it is within it?”

    Stronger 21% : Weaker 41%

    “Thinking ahead to the situation after the UK leaves the EU, do you agree or disagree with…Companies in other EU countries should be allowed to sell goods as easily in Scotland as they can in their own country?”

    Agree 65% : Disageree 11%

    “Thinking ahead to the situation after the UK leaves the EU, do you agree or disagree with…People from other European countries should still have an automatic right to come to Scotland to live and work should they so wish”

    Agree 40% : Disagree 36%

    “And do you think that, as a result of leaving the EU, Scotland will have more control over its own laws, less control or, will it not make much difference either way?”

    More 29% : Less 15%

    “Say that after the UK has left the EU, Scotland became an independent country, separate from the rest of the UK. In those circumstances, would you be in favour or against Scotland applying to join the EU?”

    Favour 48% : Against 31%

  9. @Alec:

    ” “Meanwhile, he has just signed a very serious executive order saying that for every federal regulation enacted, two must be recinded:…”
    Yeah, but which two executive orders has he rescinded?”

    Exactly!

    More seriously:

    Candy pointed out that he’s a media manipulator, and that in the midst of the media firestorm over the ban, he snuck in this new EO, with hardly any media attention.

    American political sites reported by Political Wire have warned that this is precisely his style – deliberately to create chaos, so as to deflect attention from other actions.

    https://politicalwire.com/2017/01/29/trump-uses-chaos-get-way/

  10. “Meanwhile, he has just signed a very serious executive order saying that for every federal regulation enacted, two must be recinded:…”

    Didn’t one of our governments enact something like that? I’m not sure it ever came to anything.

    Also, why would he want to hide something like that? It’s a lot less controversial than some of his other EOs.

  11. @ Sea Change
    ‘nd it extremely odd that Brexit based messages can have a large effect in by-election polling in Richmond and Witney but not so in these other areas.’

    Two points –
    – there are more pressing concerns on the minds of people – eg Trump
    – we are a fair bit further beyond the Referendum compared with the Witney and Richmond by elections.
    A possible third point might be the evidence of one pollster that Socio ecconomic groups C,D &E are less likely to view Brexit as an important issue.

  12. It will be interesting to see if the floating voters in the UK are moved by the uproar around Trump. I can see it further galvanising opposition to the Tories amongst those who already hate them, but the key question is how vulnerable the Tories are to the flaking off of softer supporters who have a strong liberal streak. The Brexit vote didn’t do this (or at least if it did see some move to the LDs then it was counteracted by gains elsewhere).

    I have my doubts. I think the numbers protesting and signing petitions are impressive, but I think they represent a well-motivated minority rather than a small segment of a mass movement.

    But it could happen.

    As always, Labour’s great difficulty is that even if the issue did turn people off May, Corbyn is probably not the best placed politician to benefit. The man who invited Hezbollah and Sinn Fein to parliament is on a bit of a sticky wicket arguing for a boycott on visits by “nasty foreigners”. And it is likely that the average floating voter can imagine what the relationship between a Corbyn Downing Street and a Trump White House would be like and and might baulk at what this might mean for the relationship between the two countries. Of course that’s not a hypothetical question. Or at least it won’t be. In 2020 Corbyn will be asking the voters to make him our conduit of communication with Trump. Any undiplomatic language in 2017 may make him seem a pretty risky bet in a post-Brexit world where upsetting the US could be devastating.

    On balance, I think most voters will share the embarassment at the friendly relationship between May and Trump, but also value it as a necessary bit of pride-swallowing, given what is at stake.

    I also think that the best thing May could probably do for the world is to provide the wise head that Trump needs, and which his contempt for his domestic opposition (in other parties and his own), for civil servants and for the media he otherwise might not get.

  13. the other Howard,
    ” there are plenty like Mervyn King who think that in the years ahead we will look back and say “whay is all the fuss about”.”

    Hindsight might say so, but my point was what tangible good news, rather than absence of any news, is not likely in the next year or two. Right now the lack of bad news is being spun as success, wheras Brexit hasnt even happened. This is all feeding the discontent rating over government handling of Brexit.

  14. MARKW

    ” the fakes were removed and one hopes the system is now more robust.’

    That is a very big hope. If fake news is aimed at reaching and inluencing the lowest common denominator in informed opionion, as the Leave campaign showed it to be, than it is and will remain an instrument of vested interest, exploitation and populist politics.

  15. As UKIP are bookies’ favourites now, according to The Guardian today , maybe this poll was not so wide of the mark….?

  16. (My first UKPR comment, whoo hoo)

    Gnome, you wrote that Labourleave were ‘convassing’ their supporters. Please don’t correct that, it’s a beautiful and apposite Freudian slip.

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