Just to catch up, YouGov put out new voting intention figures yesterday (though the fieldwork was from last week). topline figures were CON 39%(nc), LAB 28%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 13%(-1). While the changes since the week before are not significant in themselves, eleven points is actually the lowest Conservative lead YouGov have shown for several months. It’s also worth a glance at the “most important issues” question in the tables: the NHS has risen ten points since YouGov last asked the question back in November, making it the second most important concern after Brexit. It’s possible to interpret that as health rising up the agenda and helping Labour’s support… but it’s equally possible that the changes in voting intention are just normal, random sample variation. Still, worth keeping an eye on it. Full tabs here.

There was also a Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday at the weekend. Their topline figures were CON 38%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 2%. Tabs are here


315 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 39, LAB 28, LDEM 11, UKIP 13”

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  1. So it looks like the vote leave words ‘There is a free trade zone stretching all the way from Iceland to the Russian border. We will still be part of it after we Vote Leave’ may turn out to be untrue – who would have thought it! Will be interesting to see how the increasing list of broken promises goes down with the electorate.

  2. The timing of a second Independence Referendum is not in Nicola Sturgeon’s hands. I would be very surprised if Westminster agreed to a another vote on the issue during this Parliament.

  3. @johnindevon

    I think people’ll remember the predicted doom, and how it hasn’t happened…yet. Maybe Kent will still sink into the sea. Maybe civilization will collapse. Maybe Putin will invade Northumberland.

    Or, maybe, there won’t be a recession at all.

  4. @wood – we have dropped from 5th largest to 7th largest economy in the world, I am not sure I remember anyone predicting Putin was going to invade Northumberland.

  5. @graham

    Possibly. What is certain is that the Scottish Government controls the timing of calling for an independence referendum and placing the UK Government in the position of refusing or agreeing. And, depending on the temper of the times, the Scottish Government might test as it did not have to before whether or not it has a power to call a referendum without Westminster approval if Westminster refuses.

  6. Andrew111 – “If Theresa is basing her policy on getting a favourable trade deal with arch-protectionist Donald Trump, she could have just made a colossal mistake!”

    We don’t actually need the trade deal from Trump. We just need the arch-protectionist to put the squeeze on the Europeans.

    Take Germany. They have trashed the economies of southern europe, so those places arn’t buying their stuff anymore. France used to be Germany’s biggest market but it has fallen back to #2 as it weakened. And China is slowing. The Germans are reliant on selling to the US (their #1 market) and the UK (their third biggest market).

    If the Americans put tariffs on German goods, then it becomes even more urgent for the Germans to do a deal with the UK to maintain access to our market.

    Merkel has gone from lecturing Trump to urgently seeking a meeting with him in the course of a week! If she can’t stop him putting tariffs on her goods, then she badly needs the deal with Mrs May.

  7. Hireton
    I don’t think there would be any legal basis for the Scottish Parliament calling such a Referendum without Westminster’s consent.

  8. Barrack Obama goes out in style….

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38659068

    Chelsea Manning sentence commuted.

  9. @ CATMANJEFF
    Barrack Obama goes out in style….
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38659068
    Chelsea Manning sentence commuted.

    Good news .. but not Snowden?

  10. @R Huckle (8:15)

    I agree with you that the vote at the end of the process could end up with us remaining in the EU, although I think the circumstances are unlikely.

    If the deal is very clearly a bad deal for the UK to the extent that the government is struggling to give unequivocal support (Tory split) and, crucially, public opinion has turned against Brexit (“I voted leave but had I known this is what it meant”) then I think that remaining could happen. Whether or not this is preceded by a GE I think would depend upon the depth of split in the Tories, her own self belief in the deal and her judgement of her chances of success, but, if she gets it wrong, in those very specific circumstances, I could foresee a hung parliament where Labour + LibDems + SNP > Tory + UKIP (even with JC as leader)

    I pay no attention to the briefings today that say that it’s deal or WTO, remain is not an option – she can’t possibly suggest anything else as it would not only undermine her negotiating position but destroy her political credibility.

    As I say, I think this unlikely as I don’t think public opinion will change that significantly and the deal will be “good in parts” and therefore a much more subjective judgement as to its merits, but nonetheless possible.

  11. So I wonder if Nissan are dusting off that letter of comfort from the UK Government.

  12. @Syzygy

    I guess Snowden hasn’t been convicted, so can’t have his sentence commuted?

  13. @graham

    As I said there are different legal views on that and it could be that the SG may choose to test that.

  14. @graham

    In a sense it doesn’t matter if the Scottish Government can call a legally binding referendum or not. They could spend money on an advisory referendum if they chose, and then essentially dare the UK government to ignore it.

  15. Assange said he’d turn himself in if Chelsea Manning was pardoned, see

    http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/16/12939232/julian-assange-wikileaks-chelsea-manning-obama

    I wonder if he’ll do it. Obama will be delighted if the guy who leaked the Clinton emails turns himself in, which is of course why he has given the pardon. And if he doesn’t turn himself in, he’ll be labelled a hypocrite. Very well played Obama.

  16. R. Huckle “I don’t agree that if Parliament votes against the Government Brexit deal that Brexit will happen anyway.”
    As this is a polling site, I think you should consider whether the polling companies will test whether any deal has general public approval. Given the number of constituencies effectively voting Leave, many by large margins, I’m sure MPs will consider that before voting it down.
    I don’t think the government needs to get everything it seeks. People are aware that negotiations don’t always deliver all you want, and will I think not be happy if a deal which provides most of whatever people’s expectations were is voted down by parliament.
    Put another way, it would have to be a demonstrably bad deal before Parliament would dare vote it down.
    On the other hand, suppose they did. The EU must by now be clear that whatever the economic consequences, UK has a view of the future unlike the view of the major players (EU officials and remaining members) who might not wish to see UK attempt to withdraw Article 50 – especially as that action would come around March 2019 after 2 years detailed negotiations and attendant publicity about the outcome.
    I don’t imagine that Parliament would be given the chance to vote until the EU has gone through its approval mechanisms, for until it has, we don’t actually have a ‘deal’ to vote on. I guess the Lisbon 2 years would run out before the spectre of attempting to withdraw Article 50 can be turned into reality. Remember, the Article 50 ‘deal’ is not an agreement on the future relations between UK and EU. It is “to set the arrangements for UK withdrawal, taking account of the framework fo rUK future relationship with the Union. Framework for, not detail of.
    Imagine it. The EU agrees such arrangements for UK leaving that “shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.” and then UK Parliament in defiance of the Referendum result, seeks to withdraw Article 50 and in effect rejoin the EU on 2016 terms, in 2019? Messy is not the word. Unbelievable is more appropriate. There would be a general election within 12 months anyway. Surely the EU would at best simply offer to agree to extend the deadline for withdrawal until UK had sorted itself out by a general election?
    There might of course only be some 600 MP’s to vote on the issue, should there have been a second Scottish independence referendum. If you are looking for a really messy scenario, the Westminster Parliament might authorise a UK wide non-binding referendum on whether Scotland should remain part of the UK, leaving the decision to the Scottish parliament.
    But even I don’t expect things to get as messy as that.

  17. All this discussion on indyref2 & Brexit doesn’t help with the really complex negotiations that I’m involved with.

    How can I reconstruct the decking in my daughter’s garden, that simultaneously accommodates the new bike shed for her husband, and the need for maximising the play area for the grandkids?

  18. @The Sheep
    I would expect other parties to boycott such a referendum.

  19. @Candy

    I wonder if he’ll do it. Obama will be delighted if the guy who leaked the Clinton emails turns himself in, which is of course why he has given the pardon.

    That’s so cynical.

    I’m sure many others will think it was because Obama is a really decent human being.

  20. Hireton
    Westminster has the power to repeal the Devolution Legislation of the late 1990s. In addition, the UK Government surely would have the option in exceptional circumstances of imposing Direct Rule as the Heath Government did re-Stormont in early 1972.

  21. @ CMJ

    ‘I guess Snowden hasn’t been convicted, so can’t have his sentence commuted?’

    Good point.

    @ Oldnat

    Multistory decking.. or elevated to accomodate Bike store and children’s den underneath?

  22. @CMJ I highly doubt that Obama did it because of what Assange might or might not do as a result; I’m sure he sees him as beneath contempt

  23. @graham

    Utter stupidity can never be ruled out but the polling implications of that course of action would be interesting.

  24. @OLDNAT

    Simple

    Decking means Decking

  25. CMJ

    “I guess Snowden hasn’t been convicted, so can’t have his sentence commuted?”

    That’s was my first though too.

    CANDY

    Assange turning himself in to the Swedish authorities would make me happy indeed.
    ____________

    On Indyref2: if the polling starts tilting strongly towards Yes, the SNP will find one way or another to become independent. If they ask for a referendum and Westminster says no, it’ll only help them, and like Graham said, an advisory referendum could be held. Assuming that passes with a large majority, the UK gov would either be forced to accept the result and act accordingly, or Scotland could just straight up declare independence.

  26. … and I should add, then do what you want.

  27. Syzygy

    That’s precisely what I’m negotiating on! (Don’t give a damn what they decide- as long as they stick to that decision!)

    But then, my negotiating position is very non-Brit. I try to accommodate as many preferences as are technically possible, rather than going off in a sulk, and saying “these arrangements don’t suit me”

    If I took that approach, I wouldn’t have any friends or family – I’d be just like Gollum/May. “My Precious [Union]”

  28. On Manning v Snowden, the White House Press Secretary explained it. Basically, Snowden didn’t get a pardon because he fled to Russia.

    Here’s the full quote: “Chelsea Manning is somebody who went through the military criminal justice process, was exposed to due process, was found guilty, was sentenced for her crimes, and she acknowledged wrongdoing,” he said. “Mr. Snowden fled into the arms of an adversary and has sought refuge in a country that most recently made a concerted effort to undermine confidence in our democracy.”

  29. Politicians don’t dare say it but corporation tax is a joke and it should be abolished.

    Tax inspectors should focus all their efforts on transfer pricing, then the multinationals would stop shunting their profits around and shell companies would disappear. Even ‘Depreciation’ would disappear.

    Corporations don’t drive ferraris or drink champagne, owners and managers do that. Anything taken out – dividends, bonuses etc. – should be taxed at source, just like salaries. It would no longer matter whether a payout was from a private company to a family trust in Cayman, from the subsidiary of a multinational to a corporate parent or indeed to a letterbox in Ireland or Luxembourg. This would be fairer and would greatly reduce tax evasion.

    Of course giant tech companies who dont generally pay any dividends wouldn’t pay any tax at all. So no change there, although to continue to achieve this they would at least have to hoard their profits in the markets where they are earned rather than in Bermuda.

  30. Daibach

    Since the Saltire flies in their garden, it certainly won’t be “red, white & blue” decking!

  31. a Good day for the prime minister i would have thought.

    Liberals calling her anti democratic because she hasnt called for a second referendum !!!
    Labour through Starmer saying it was good;
    Tories happy;
    Ukip outflanked.
    sturgeon…has nowhere to go. call indyref and lose and it is curtains; win and what?Do nothing and look irrelevant.

    Vote by parliament in 2years on a take it or leave it basis with the press in full cry about the bad terms being the fault of the europeans with the backdrop that if they do not agree the uk will leave on WTO rules.If i were a betting person i would think the result inevitable.

  32. @OLDNAT

    I suppose hard or soft Decking depends on your choice of wood.

  33. David Colby

    Excellent suggestion.

    If applied to “sub-state” jurisdictions as well, it would prevent the profits from economic activity, elsewhere than the city/region that hosted the HQs of companies, being erroneously allocated to that location.

  34. Old Nat

    Very important to avoid any ‘cliff edges’ with the decking – particularly for the kids. A phased implementation of the new decking might be wise, too.

  35. “I pay no attention to the briefings today that say that it’s deal or WTO, remain is not an option – she can’t possibly suggest anything else as it would not only undermine her negotiating position but destroy her political credibility.”

    I would agree with this statement. Again, this is one of those issues where people make assumptions without really thinking. If, for example, the government was defeated on the deal, they might want to say that we leave under the worse WTO terms, but in doing that, they are then talking on behalf of the EU.

    Under A50, there is no legal obligation on the EU to proceed with a country leaving – the article allows the negotiations to be abandoned, extended, suspended, or any other word ending with ed that the EU27 care to unanimously back.

    Likewise, it would be a pretty stupid government that insisted to the EU that we should leave on worse terms than had just been agreed between the negotiating teams but rejected by the UK parliament. Their choice would either be to reopen negotiations or resign. If a new government came in, I would suspect the negotiations might start again – but they might not.

    Or the EU might just decide to chuck us out on the worst possible terms.

    In short, and UK politician who says what would happen as a certainty is not being honest – the honest answer is that pretty much that anything might happen.

  36. Who is this Cliff Edges anyway? I thought he played centre forward for Aston Villa in the mid 1970’s, but I could be wrong.

    On less serious matters; Quietly amusing to see some Brexiteers proclaiming satisfaction at the rise in sterling today, perhaps not realising that it rose over market hopes that giving vote to parliament might scupper notions of leaving the single market, along with a bump from Brexit inspired devaluation inflation making and interest rate rise more likely.

  37. OLDNAT

    At last, some common ground :-)

  38. I feel envious of Scotland. London voted strongly Remain. Can we secede and become a province of independent Scotland?

  39. @S Thomas

    Tories happy? What, you mean apart from the sufficiently large number, in both Commons and Lords, to prevent parliament authorising Article 50?

    Apart from making threats to repeatedly punch ourselves in the face, I’m really not sure what May said today other than “Hard Brexit”. Offering parliament a vote as the clock ticks down to midnight is no concession, and no use.

  40. OldNat,

    Build a fort!

    A bike shed with a flat roof and parapet, the kids can get up to with a ladder.

    They’ll love it!

    Peter.

  41. On Brexit being reversed in case of economic collapse…

    As an avid reader of the Guardian online, there seems to be many who are hoping for a tough EU to bring the UK to its senses/knees, whichever way you look at it.

    The trouble is that they doubtless assume that the damage done to cause such a change will be instantly reversed, that large number of leave voters will blame Boris for leading them astray, and learn to love the EU. The EU will extract no price, such as joining Schengen or the Eurozone.

    The reality is that the damage will consist of lots of financial and other business going to Europe, which the EU won’t exactly help to send back. There will be bankruptcy which won’t instantly unwind. The EU will most likely not tolerate a return to pre-June 23rd business as usual, i.e. they won’t want us to come back in and veto all the deeper union stuff they’ve been talking about since 24 June.

    Countries that basically surrender never find it an agreeable process, and tend to get resentful. So getting a last gasp remain victory through Europe teaching the UK a lesson through a damn good economic thrashing is unlikely to work well.

  42. West Ham Alec.
    Easy to confuse even for supporters.

    I am with Dez – biggest problem is Roi/Ni.

    The other stuff is Economics but this is about Anglo-Irish and Good Friday agreement and votes in both parts of the Island of Ireland.

  43. Peter Cairns

    Yep suggested that! I have hopes that I get to build the fort/den on the other side of the deck!

    As happened over the centuries, it’s the alliance of the grandparents and the grandkids which eventually overturns the resistance of the parents.

  44. Robin

    I sense that you are not happy this evening.

    Dont worry it will all work out.You have been reading too many economics experts.Like those who proclaim that the end of the world is nigh,statistically there e is one occasion when they will be 100%correct.They will no doubt be hugely satisfied

  45. Joseph1832

    “Countries that basically surrender never find it an agreeable process, and tend to get resentful.”

    Not altogether true.

    Scotland basically “surrendered” to English pressure in 1707, but while there was initial resentment against the “Incorporating Union”, the benefits of having a high profile in running the British Empire overcame the resentment.

    Of course, once the Empire was dead and buried, and the economic benefits of union with the “English” Empire were long gone, then resentment at being just governed by England did lead to resentment.

    Devolution reduced that sense of alienation, by giving legislative control over previously administratively devolved areas – but the resentment hasn’t been dissipated.

    “teaching …a lesson through a damn good economic thrashing is unlikely to work well.”

    Yet that is precisely what UK politicians suggested what they would do to Scotland if they dared to vote Yes.

    I agree with your idea that “delivering a thrashing” to a country that wants to leave a Union is “unlikely to work well.”

  46. @S Thomas

    Neither happy or otherwise. May appears to be going for Armageddon, but that increases the chance she’ll be stopped in her tracks.

    To those suggesting this is some great Machiavellian ploy by May, with the aim of stopping Brexit: Really? You think that is something May is capable of?

  47. Guymonde
    “I feel envious of Scotland. London voted strongly Remain. Can we secede and become a province of independent Scotland?”

    If only….
    ——————————
    ON
    ““teaching …a lesson through a damn good economic thrashing is unlikely to work well.”
    Yet that is precisely what UK politicians suggested what they would do to Scotland if they dared to vote Yes.”

    Have you noticed that the Scots caved in to these threats and the English basically gave the EU and the Establishment the traditional gesture?

  48. @David Colby,

    I have always advocated exactly the same. Corporation Tax should be 0% and all distributions should be taxed at the marginal rate.

    Any increase in Corporation tax is paid by the individual in the end anyway. Companies raise their prices to make a return on investment after tax. The consumer pays for that increase, so they are simply being taxed in a circular manner.

    It’s pointless, self-defeating and a bureaucratic burden.

    The other bugbear I have is taxing Public Servants. What’s the point of taxing their pay? Their pay comes from private taxation. So all we are doing is paying them with other people’s taxable private income and then taking away some of that tax income.

    More bureaucratic, expensive nonsense. Just pay them less, tax free.

  49. @Sea Change
    “I have always advocated exactly the same. Corporation Tax should be 0% and all distributions should be taxed at the marginal rate.”

    It’s much much easier to structure things in a way to avoid divestment taxation than corporation profit taxation.

    Let’s say Freedonia has a 0% corporation tax, and a 20% divestment tax. While Potsilvania has a 20% corporation tax and a 0% divestment tax.

    I want to sell Sprockets in Freedonia, but want to minimise my tax. So instead of just starting a company there, I start one in Potsilvania called Shiny Sprockets Inc. Shiny Sprokets Inc is a holding company for the Shiny Sprockets trademark and intellectual properites, it’s employees are it’s management and the board of directors.

    Then I start a company called Horse Feathers Strategies in Freedonia. Horse Feathers Strategies actually imports Sprockets, then labels them as Shiny Sprockets. It pays Shiny Sprockets for the use of that name. This is not a divestment, it’s a payment for a service.

    Shiny Sprockets Inc, meanwhile, does not make a profit to be taxed on. Their entire income goes towards paying the payroll and bonuses of it’s management and board.

    It may occur from time to time that Horse Feathers Strategies accidentally builds up a surplus of profit. But that’s not a problem.

    One of the board members of Shiny Sprockets Inc retires to start their own spin-off company, Spiffy Spindles. Then some time later, Horse Feathers Strategies buys Spiffy Spindles for a large amount of money…

  50. It would really be much easier if everywhere just had harmonized taxes.

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