Earlier on today ICM put out their first poll of the year, conducted for the Guardian. Topline figures with changes from before Christmas are CON 42%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 12%(-2), GRN 4%(+1). No significant change there, just the sort of double digit Tory lead that appears to have become the norm. I’ll put up a link to the tables when they appear tomorrow.

Also out today is the January YouGov Welsh poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline figures there are:

Westminster: CON 28%(-1), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 13%(-1), Plaid 13%(nc)
Assembly Const: CON 25%(+1), LAB 31%(-3), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 12%(-1), Plaid 21%(+1)
Assembly List: CON 22%(nc), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 14%(+1), Plaid 20%(-1)

There is a more detailed write up, with what these figures would mean if they actually happened at a general election or Welsh Assembly election, over on Roger Scully’s blog.

509 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 42, LAB 28, LDEM 9, UKIP 12, GRN 4”

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  1. @ John P
    I suppose it’s all down to me listening to the MSM and Twitter then. I’ve been following (vaguely) what he said, rather than what he thinks (apparently)

  2. Comres find that voters think that

    “Theresa May and the Conservatives would do a better job than Jeremy Corbyn and Labour at managing the NHS this winter”.

    but they REALLY don’t like my local MP for S West Surrey:

    “Just 12% tell ComRes Indy/S Mirror poll that Jeremy Hunt is doing good job as Health Sec. 53% say he isn’t.”

    Mike Smithson notes on Twitter that this also applies to Conservative voters:

    “Mike Smithson [email protected]

    Even CON voters not backing Jeremy Hunt. Just 24% agree that he is doing a good job as Health Secretary – 34% disagree. ComRes”

  3. If UKIP manage to get in to Stoke Central, then that will have massive implications for Labour north of the Watford Gap.

  4. @Saffer

    The specific figures were 43% thought Theresa May would do better job of managing the NHS this winter compared to 31% for Corbyn.

    This despite 47% agreeing that the Red Cross was right there was a crisis (36% disagreed).

    So people agree there is a problem, they just think Mrs May will solve it – probably by sacking Jeremy Hunt.

  5. Saffer,

    Who was the last health secretary, of any party, that people liked? It is an impossible job unless you are giving money away.

  6. COLIN
    “So do you forecast Labour holds in Copeland & Stoke-perhaps even increased majorities with such an attractive policy platform?”
    No – if you are still reading this thread – not on this programme, given the size of the Leave vote, especially at Copeland – but on the likelihood that Labour wil campaign and organise for a big turnout of their supporters, I will not be surprised if they do.

  7. @ Candy

    The poll doesn’t mean that people trust May to solve the problem, just that they distrust her less than they distrust Corbyn.

    I can’t help feeling that there is little strongly positive sentiment around for any of the main party leaders at present, May included.

    It’s a case of ‘the best of a bad bunch’…


    Thanks-so its an Immigration Policy for Remain Voters then?

  9. Artair

    “Who was the last health secretary, of any party, that people liked? It is an impossible job unless you are giving money away.”

    … Nicola Sturgeon?

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