We’ve had three new voting intention polls in the last four days. ICM‘s regular poll for the Guardian came out earlier today, with topline figures of CON 42%(-1), LAN 28%(+1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 11%(-1), GRN 3%(-2). Full tabs are here.

Opinium had a new poll in the Observer at the weekend. Their topline voting intention figures with changes from a fortnight ago are CON 41%(+1), LAB 29%(-3), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 12%(-1). Full tabs are here.

Finally YouGov at the tail end of last week had topline figures of CON 42%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 11%(nc). Full tabs are here.

All three polls show the Conservative lead still up around 12-14 points, suggesting that the narrowing in the Ipsos MORI poll last week was indeed just a reversion to the mean and that the polls are settling into a consistent position of the Tories up around 40% and Labour marooned around 30%.

Ahead of the Autumn statement both Opinium and ICM asked economic trust questions – Opinium found May & Hammond with a 26 point lead over Corbyn & McDonnell on who they’d trust to run the economy (44% to 18%), ICM gives tham a 33 point lead on which team would be better able to run the economy (48% to 15%).


827 Responses to “Latest voting intentions”

1 14 15 16 17
  1. COLIN
    “I absolutely agree that the EU is not without its own risks & stresses.”
    Hence the Remain strategy of staying within the EU to radically reform it.

  2. @TOH – “Thanks for that. It is nice to know, although whilst not agreeing on what is best for the country, we can agree on issues like upholding the rule of law.”

    You need to be a little careful there! I don’t yet have a firm personal view on Brexit, as I don’t know what it means. If and when an exit deal becomes clear, I may well support it, subject to what it contains. Our only differences really is that I admit to not knowing the Brexit details, while you claim that you do, and that I want the chance to have my say on them, while you are happy to trust the PM.

    That isn’t a huge gulf, if we are being honest.

  3. Alec

    Fair enough, perfectly reasonable stance on your part.

  4. I didn’t want to get involved in the Thatcher manifesto debate last night, but I did peruse the Conservative 1987 manifesto, as you do from time to time.

    No mention of the poll tax, no mention of joining the ERM, claims that they would provide a strong and effective NHS and a growing and stable economy.

    Ho hum.

  5. John B: “But in the absence of any such hint of welcome for those who are not UK citizens we decided to remain in Scotland. We would rather be poorer amongst friends than be richer and live surrounded by those who wish us ill!”

    Thank you for that salutary reminder of the human dimension of Brexit.

    We used to hear quite a lot about how Britain excelled in ‘soft diplomacy’ – winning hearts and minds through culture, sport, educating others and generally being perceived as ‘nice’. I don’t know to what extent that has been undermined. Quite a bit, I suspect. Anyone know of any polling on changes to others’ perceptions of the UK?

  6. New Harris poll for French Presidential Elections.
    http://www.lcp.fr/sites/default/files/Intentions_de_vote_%28LCP-Public_Senat%29.pdf

    In fielding 3 candidates, each projected to get 10-15% the left are splitting their votes and leaving the door open to Le Pen v Fillon for the final. The top two go straight into the final round – no week by week candidate elimination x-factor style. No-one seems wiling to fall on their sword to present a united left winger – so France will get a choice of Alt-right and Thatcherite.

    Some speculation recently that Le Pen might even win – but while polling has taken a reputation hit recently, IMO the much derided polls (UK general election, Brexit, US election) were only out by 2-5%. To be out by 17%, which this poll would have to be for Le Pen to win, would be a whole new ball game in polling inaccuracy.

  7. JohnInDevon
    “Vote Leave was not explicit about what they were asking people to vote for. ”

    It was very explicit. People were asked whether they wanted to leave the EU. Implicit with that (to me and many others) was that the detail of the negotiations would be dealt with by the government.

    In previous referenda on Welsh and Scottish assemblies for instance, a simple question was asked and then the public voted. There weren’t subsequent referenda on exactly what the terms might be, it was left to the government.

  8. John B

    Thank you for your post and for explaining why you feel as strongly as you do. I would suggest that it is not terribly sensible to take so much notice of the newspapers and what they say on emotive issues such as Brexit. In reality in the South of England where I live, you and your wife would be welcomed and would not meet prejudice. One of my wife’s best friends is German (I suppose technically now Polish as she was born in, and fled from East Prussia in 1945. She hasn’t met any prejudice as far as we are aware. My son in law is half Italian and his mother lived in the UK (South of England) for many years and enjoyed it here.

    Prejudice does exist everywhere but it is usually confined to very small minorities IMO. I have met anti-English prejudice twice, once in Scotland and once in Australia. In both cases I just ignored it. It may be that you are confusing anti EU sentement with anti Europeans sentiment. There is much of the former but little of the latter here.

  9. @Alec

    You can’t have read it very carefully then. Here it is:

    http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1987/1987-conservative-manifesto.shtml

    Under local govt it says:

    quote

    We will reform local government finance to strengthen local democracy and accountability.

    Local electors must be able to decide the level of service they want and how much they are prepared to pay for it.

    We will legislate in the first Session of the new Parliament to abolish the unfair domestic rating system and replace rates with a fairer Community Charge.

    This will be a fixed rate charge for local services paid by those over the age of 18, except the mentally ill and elderly people living in homes and hospitals. The less-well-off and students will not have to pay the full charge but everyone will be aware of the costs as well as the benefits of local services.

    end quote

    Pretty clear. And the ERM bit is covered in the part about controlling inflation.

    It seems to me that people who lived in that era have an imagined memory of the period, where they think Mrs T’s election wins were narrow and therefore in their imagination she had no mandate, when in actuality they were huge in terms of popular vote and turnout compared to Blair’s wins. And they have also convinced themselves that the things she did weren’t in the manifestos and came as a surprise to everyone, when it was set out in detail in black and white and she won backing from voters before she did anything.

    Fake memory syndrome?

  10. JOHN PIL:GRIM

    @”Hence the Remain strategy of staying within the EU to radically reform it.”

    I’m pleased to see that you retain a sense of humour.

  11. TOH

    Where I’m from in southern England there very much is a hatred of foreigners which became obvious during the referendum.

    No it’s not more than 50% of people but I’d estimate 25-30% of people from around here hate Germans solely for being German etc. (this extends to every other nationality, not just Europeans and includes 2 of my family). They aren’t violent but they would be more than happy to make life unpleasant.

  12. Candy,

    I remember noticing a similar phenomenon with a school oral history project. People who had lived through the 1920s and 1930s tended to think of the ’30s as the “Bad Decade” and the ’20s as the “Good Decade”. Events from one decade were transferred to the other to fit the narrative. So the General Strike and the Wall Street Crash happened in the ’30s, while they’d gotten that good job and first gone to see Technicolour Talkies in the ’20s.

  13. @ALAN

    “No it’s not more than 50% of people but I’d estimate 25-30% of people from around here hate Germans solely for being German etc. (this extends to every other nationality, not just Europeans and includes 2 of my family). They aren’t violent but they would be more than happy to make life unpleasant.”

    Where are you from? Basildon? Or some other sh*thole in Essex?

    I also live in the south and where you live seems light years away from the Thames Valley.

  14. Two things give cause for concern about the US election result:

    1. Having been on the end, in an employment context, of a narcissistic psychopath, I know from experience that their pattern of behaviour is to avoid owning vague unsubstantiated claims (“X said”, “I read it on the internet”), but when they make explicit accusations they invariably reflect things that they themselves are guilty of (“The Clinton Foundation is corrupt”, “this election is rigged against me”). It’s something to do with avoiding feeling bad about what they themselves are doing by convincing themselves that others do the same thing. That leads me to strongly suspect that Trump (or his team) was himself engaged in some form of election rigging.

    2. I have seen two instances of vote tabulations from Wisconsin that had a larger number of total votes counted than ballots issued. In one case by a very large amount. This hints at falsification, with these simply being incompetent instances of it.

    Whether such activities were enough to have swung the election is another matter.

  15. @Bill Patrick

    The post-truth fake narrative thing has been going on for a lot longer than we thought!

  16. @JOHN B

    “Now, you may wish to try and convince me that the Express, the Mail and the Telegraph are representative of only a small minority of rather unfriendly people and that their views on throwing my Italian wife out of the UK (she is an EU citizen, and she and I are constantly being made aware of anti-EU sentiment coming from those newspapers) are not representative of the majority south of the border. But in the absence of any such hint of welcome for those who are not UK citizens we decided to remain in Scotland. We would rather be poorer amongst friends than be richer and live surrounded by those who wish us ill!”

    I think that if you take the Mail, Express and Sun seriously then you are getting a very wrong impression.
    Basically, the haters are a minority but a very vociferous one, given that as they are either pensioners or the jobless underclass they have no jobs to keep them busy. That’s why you find so many pro-Brexit comments all over the internet and on just about every news website. Most of the haters are cowards – they spew bile all over the internet but would never speak out in public as they know they would be facing physical confrontation.
    Educated people in England are far removed from these morons.

  17. COLIN
    “I’m pleased to see that you retain a sense of humour.”

    Yes, I’ld quite like us to get in among the clowns currently mismanaging the migration programme.

  18. While trying (and failing) to find polls answering my own question about changes in other countries’ perceptions of the UK, I came across this fascinating poll:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3742/the-perils-of-perception-and-the-eu.aspx

    It dates from just before the referendum. It reveals huge misperceptions about the EU which, in retrospect, do much to explain the result. For instance:

    • EU immigrants: we massively overestimate how many EU-born people now live in the UK. On average we think EU citizens make up 15% of the total UK population (which would be around 10.5m people), when in reality it’s 5% (around 3.5m people). Those who intend to vote to leave overestimate EU immigration more: they think 20% of the UK population are EU immigrants, compared with the average guess of 10% among those who intend to vote “remain”.

    • Child Benefit: we massively overestimate the proportion of Child Benefit awards given to families in other European countries. The actual proportion of UK Child Benefit awards going on children living abroad in Europe is 0.3%, but 14% of us think that 30% of UK Child Benefit goes to children abroad and 23% of us think 13% does. This means that nearly 4 in 10 of us think the number of children in EU countries receiving Child Benefit from the UK is 40 to 100 times the actual level.

    • EU democracy: only 6 in 10 know that members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are elected by the citizens of each member state. One in five (18%) think that MEPs are not elected and a quarter (25%) say they don’t know whether they are or not.

    • The EU’s administration bill: we massively overestimate how much of the EU’s budget is spent on administration. The average guess is that 27% of the overall budget is spent on staff, admin and maintenance costs, when in reality it’s 6%

    • Inward investment from EU countries: we underestimate how much investment into the UK comes from EU countries. The average guess is that they contribute 30% of total investment into the UK, when it actually makes up almost half (48%). This perception gap is mirrored by an overestimation of investment from China, which people think makes up 19% of inward investment but actually only accounts for 1%

    I’ve cherry-picked what seem to me the most egregious examples, but there are more for anyone who cares to look.

    It does seem a little odd to treat the referendum result as holy writ, not to be questioned in any way or threatened with revision by a further referendum on the final deal, when so many people voted on the basis of massive misperceptions. If I had shared these beliefs even I might have been tempted to vote Leave!

  19. @PETE B

    Given a chance I would be more than happy to speak out in public, but I have a job and there are people called MPs who are paid a salary to do just that.

  20. Tancred
    Is it possible that those whose views you disagree with have similar concerns?

  21. TANCRED

    Your post to Alan. For once we totally agree I can’t imagine where Alan lives. Thames Valley, Surrey, West Sussex, I know them all and have friends and relatives all over this area and I don’t any of them would regognise that description.

  22. @SOMERJOHN

    This simply confirms what I already know: that Brexit supporters voted out of prejudice and ingrained hostility rather than on the basis of any reasoned argument. The issue is why was this information not shared and distributed more openly before the referendum and why was there no legal watchdog in place to prevent the leave side from peddling outright lies?

  23. @PETE B

    “Tancred
    Is it possible that those whose views you disagree with have similar concerns?”

    I wasn’t referring to people with concerns, but the haters who demand repatriation etc. I don’t mean all Brexit supporters.

  24. TOH

    Chatham, which may as well be a million miles away from the Thames Valley and Surrey.

    Escaped once but got dragged back with ill health. Next time I make a run for it, I’ll have to run further.

  25. Tancred

    Again I find myself agreeing with much you wrotr to John B. However I think rascist extremesim is present in all classes and levels of education.

    The worst two rascists I met were both Indian PhD’s.

  26. Tancred
    I was trying to point out that you yourself are not above ‘spewing bile’ – on this page alone you have talked about morons, jobless underclass, sh*thole like Basildon, etc. Though you have reasons for not saying these things in public, perhaps you can see that those spewing bile from the other perspective might also have legitimate reasons.

    I say this in the spirit of trying to get people to understand each others’ views, even if we disagree with each other.

  27. somerjohn

    your misperception is that other people were voting on mispercetions. perhaps, then, we should have 2 general elections if you personally think the voters were voting on mis perceptions. Or perhaps you think we ought to have 2 general elections if nigel farage thinks the voters were voting on misperceptions.

    I hope that you can see how dangerous your doctrine is. i am afraid you are one of those who agree with democracy as long as the result is the one that you agree with.

  28. Alan: ” Next time I make a run for it, I’ll have to run further.”

    Try Spain. It’s what counts as a chilly day here today, at just 15 degrees. And it’s been a whole week since I went for a swim in the sea!

    The town where I have a second home is a microcosm of Europe: about 50% of the population is Spanish, maybe 10% each from UK and Germany, with large numbers also from Scandinavia, Benelux, France, Romania and Russia. We all get along well with almost no apparent ill feeling (though I did get told off by an elderly Spaniard this morning when I brushed my dog before taking him in to the vet’s – and failed to collect a few of the wisps of hair blowing away down the street. Would you do that in your own country? he asked, probably quite reasonably. That’s about the closest we get to ethnic tension here).

  29. Somerjohn

    Weather is low on my list of desirable factors. I’m looking at Netherlands/Germany/Ireland with Canada/Japan as more long term destinations.

  30. @Candy – thanks for the quote from the 1987 manifesto re community charge – I had genuinely missed that as I skimmed through the entire document. I was looking for the bullet points which seemed to summarize policy pledges, but perhaps the document layout was a bit more varied than that, hence I missed defined promises.

  31. THE OTHER HOWARD @ BZ & Alec
    However of course as I understand it by not being able to trigger Art 127 we will not be able to leave the EEA and we will be bound by the four freedoms.

    My understanding differs only slightly from yours, in that the free movement of workers is potentially less rigorous.

    In this case I suspect the Government will either find ways of having an immediate election, or less likely will just leave the EU, but remain in the EEA until the next election when with I suspect a greater majority it is able to remove us from the EEA.

    Why? EU negotiations post A50 are going to be hard enough, but more importantly the referendum was to remain or leave the EU. The act which created it [European Union Referendum Act 2015 has no mention at all of the EEA.

    If the Con government want to leave the EEA, then running another referendum on EEA membership would be simple enough. I think they have little or no chance of getting an early GE the “proper” way [by a two-thirds vote in the HoC] and voting themselves out via a confidence vote is full of potential pitfalls [like Corbyn being the PM for the campaign]. How popular they are come 2020 may be a safer bet if they can control themselves.

  32. @ALAN

    “Weather is low on my list of desirable factors. I’m looking at Netherlands/Germany/Ireland with Canada/Japan as more long term destinations.”

    Japan, like the rest of Asia, is unfortunately rather hard to immigrate to. Having seen my birth country forsake the EU and my adoptive country embrace the far right in the last six months, my list of long term destinations looks almost exactly the same as yours.

    That said, is there any chance the talk of paying a fee to maintain EU citizenship for Britons coming to fruition? Would be well worth it for me, personally.

  33. JOHN PILGRIM

    @”Yes, I’ld quite like us to get in among the clowns currently mismanaging the migration programme.”

    There are many clowns to deal with there-not least the politicians who fail to make the fundamental reforms to their economies , which continue to be propped up by this :-

    http://www.dw.com/en/draghi-ecb-remains-in-crisis-mode/a-36435296

  34. @Somerjohn
    Similar to the situation regarding health tourism, about which a big fuss was made a few months back.

    Based presumably on tabloid sensationalism, the public ‘estimate’ of the cost of health tourism to the UK was £3-5bn.
    The actual number based on OBR data was (IIRC) £60m.

    @S Thomas
    With apologies for putting words in his mouth, I don’t think Somerjohn was saying that the result of the referendum was invalid, but was demonstrating that many people’s decision was at a minimum coloured by drastically inaccurate information.

    That does suggest that many people were voting against something that isn’t real, and means that many people are likely to be disappointed at the outcome.

    As examples, a good percentage of people are presumably expecting post-Brexit that millions of immigrants will leave, and that billions will be saved for teh Exchequer on Child Benefit and on stamping out health tourism.

    None of these can possibly actually happen because the problem people think they are solving either doesn’t exist or is grossly exaggerated.

  35. @PETE B

    I speak my mind and I give as good as I get. It wasn’t me who started this argument – it was you and your like.

  36. BARBAZENZERO

    You may be right, I guess we shall have to wait and see. I do think the government will be under enormous pressure to act if we cannot control our borders because of A 127, hence my view of their likely reaction. That and the fact that the Government are riding very high in the polls at the moment which is also a very strong driver to go to the country if possible.

  37. @S THOMAS

    “tancred.
    I think you misunderstand. there is no condition of free movement of labour to be in the EEA.we are already in it and can restrict movement to our hearts content. That is is why the larry Loopholes were saying it was good for brexit in their duplicitous best form this morning.”

    I don’t think you are correct. How come Norway has to sign up to EU rules on free movement and contribute to the EU budget? And did Switzerland not withdraw from the EEA precisely because of the issue of free movement?

  38. tancred

    because we are a member but our membership is not subject to those conditions because presumably we were in the EU single market so it was a not condition of that membership. Take away the EU and we remain a member of the EEA with no conditions attached but with membership of single market. At least that is what the supporters of 127 were saying this morning.

    As my earlier post said: this would be deeply offensive to other EU states but that does not seem to bother the pro-europe ? exponents of this wheeze.

  39. Sam S

    I know how hard Japan is to emigrate to, which is why I have it in my long term column. It’ll take me a couple of years to get good enough with the language to make it even possible. One option I’m looking at would be to do a PhD there as there are PhDs which are conducted in English. That would help tick a lot of boxes for residency.

    As to associate membership of the EU, it does sounds as if there are good noises being made although putting it into practice will require a bit more work on the part of the EU to create such a status.

  40. BFR

    You fall into the exact same trap. what gives you the insight to say why people voted as they did. it is the height of arrogance.

    I might say that remain voters opinions should be discounted because they voted remain out of fear that if they voted leave ,the country would need an emergency budget, pensions would need to be reviewed and the country would go into recession immediately.Also I could say in your vein of argument that a number of remain voters were too young to be able to vote properly. I , for my part, do not do so because i respect the views of each and every voter and do not presume that i am morally superior to my fellow Britons.

  41. Alan

    Like you said, there are good noises being made about associate membership, but my concern lies with actually getting it put into practice. The noises are coming from very pro-integration politicians as far as I can tell, and even if it does gain traction I can easily see it being vetoed any one of a few from the EU 27.

    Doing a degree taught in English had not occurred to me, but is definitely something I’ll keep in mind now you’ve mentioned it. I had thought of studying there, but assumed I would basically need to be fluent in the language first. That said, it is still far more likely I’ll find myself in living in Germany or France than Japan.

    @S Thomas

    That argument seems highly dubious to me. Even if it technically holds true, I would not expect the other members of the EAA or the EU27 to let it stand as such for long.

  42. @S Thomas

    The argument I refer to in my previous post is the one you cite the proponents of Article 127 as making regarding the EAA.

  43. Alan: “Weather is low on my list of desirable factors. I’m looking at Netherlands/Germany/Ireland with Canada/Japan as more long term destinations.”

    I don’t think you should discount weather as a factor. I’m sure it’s one of the main reasons people are healthy and relaxed here in Spain, and there are comparatively few social tensions: people live life outdoors much more, and mingle with their neighbours. Lots of social intercourse, in that useful phrase that people are embarrassed to use these days.

    I know that your perspective will be largely work-related, but I’m quite sure that this area is the future California of Europe. Lots of young, bright, well educated people, a great climate and amazing quality of life. And an established growth rate of about 3%.

  44. @Hireton

    “My history degree days are longer ago than I care to remember but IIRC uncontested elections meant no votes were cast hence the strange disparity between the popular vote and seats won.”

    Thank you very much.

  45. BFR: “With apologies for putting words in his mouth, I don’t think Somerjohn was saying that the result of the referendum was invalid, but was demonstrating that many people’s decision was at a minimum coloured by drastically inaccurate information.”

    No need for apologies; you’ve summarised it very succinctly!

    I think your further point that people will be unamused when they realise they have been sold a pup is also very valid, although I would not discount the possibility that the propagation of further myths (“it’s all down to the beastly Europeans refusing to give us a fair deal”; “if only the government had given us real Brexit” and so on) will prevent that. People hate to admit they’ve been conned.

  46. Rich

    It’s a shame you have to personalise your response to my post of yesterday. I won’t respond in kind as I am not prepared to lower myself to your level.

  47. Sam s

    I agree. Dinner party law.a good wheeze thought up by people with nothing better to do.

  48. sam s

    exactly. I dont think it will hold water either. However, i am sure it enlivened an otherwise London dinner party.

  49. Another snippet from the BMG/Herald Scottish poll.

    To the question (context unspecified in the Excel table, and strangely worded by the BMG report) –

    “Regarding Scotland’s currency, which of the following would you rather have?” the responses were

    “To continue using the UK pound” – 64%
    “Scotland to use the Euro” – 12%
    “To create and use a new Scottish currency” – 24%

    Unless the question order made the context implicit, it seems odd that BMG felt able to write their report as “even if the country ultimately votes for independence in the future.”

    Indeed it seems inconceivable that the same proportions of the responses would be the same for all contexts.

    One normally expects the pollster to produce a politically neutral report, and for the partisan paper to spin it to support their opinion.

    However, it looks increasingly as if BMG are “writing their reports to the requirements of the client” – and that is not acceptable, especially for a BPC member!

1 14 15 16 17