We’ve had three new voting intention polls in the last four days. ICM‘s regular poll for the Guardian came out earlier today, with topline figures of CON 42%(-1), LAN 28%(+1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 11%(-1), GRN 3%(-2). Full tabs are here.

Opinium had a new poll in the Observer at the weekend. Their topline voting intention figures with changes from a fortnight ago are CON 41%(+1), LAB 29%(-3), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 12%(-1). Full tabs are here.

Finally YouGov at the tail end of last week had topline figures of CON 42%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 11%(nc). Full tabs are here.

All three polls show the Conservative lead still up around 12-14 points, suggesting that the narrowing in the Ipsos MORI poll last week was indeed just a reversion to the mean and that the polls are settling into a consistent position of the Tories up around 40% and Labour marooned around 30%.

Ahead of the Autumn statement both Opinium and ICM asked economic trust questions – Opinium found May & Hammond with a 26 point lead over Corbyn & McDonnell on who they’d trust to run the economy (44% to 18%), ICM gives tham a 33 point lead on which team would be better able to run the economy (48% to 15%).


827 Responses to “Latest voting intentions”

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  1. First post truth polling…

  2. Second, and depressed.

  3. Still nothing for Labour to smile about

  4. Third and even more depressed.

  5. It was suggested on the previous thread that politics is becoming mote divided along on issue, rather than party, faultlines.

    Opinium asked approval/disapproval of 5 party leaders in GB, and the crossbreaks include the numbers by Remain/Leave.

    Net Approval

    Remainers : Sturgeon +22 : Corbyn +4 : Farron 0 : May -2 : Farage -55

    Leavers : May +40 : Farage +13 : Farron -41 : Corbyn -44 : Sturgeon -46.

  6. Thank goodness for some Polls-thanks AW.

    An extraordinary degree of alignment in these three. I must confess to some surprise that Labour still lag so badly. The distrust of Corbyn & lack of confidence in Labour economic competence seems deeprooted.

    I wonder if uncertainty surrounding Brexit is magnifying poor levels of trust in Labour?

  7. And into this 14% gap steps…….the ghost of Centre Left politics.
    Complete with Jim Murphy !

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/21/tony-blair-hoping-to-revitalise-centre-ground-with-political-comeback?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

    Surely Politics has never been more interesting ?

  8. Colin,
    Or less?

  9. ARTAIR

    Do you not think it unpredictable at present?

  10. @Colin

    I understand he is looking for offices in Westminster and means to hire 130 staff. Not cheap. I expect the press is digging as we speak to find out how it is all being financed. Political parties have to report their finances to the electoral commission, but I don’t think lobby groups do.

  11. Candy

    The Independent says it’s Branson’s Virgin Group

  12. These are obviously poor polls for Labour but they do not suggest electoral wipeout or Armageddon. A Tory lead of 12 to 14% implies a majority in the range of 60 to 80 seats – a good win but well short of Thatcher’s majorities in 1983 & 1987 or Blairs wins in 1997 & 2001. Moreover, the Tories are probably still being flattered by a May honeymoon factor which probably means that Tory leaning doubters are being included as firm Tory supporters. Whether that would hold true in a General Election is another matter – and far less certain.
    Personally I am wondering whether the pollsters have overcompensated for their May 2015 debacle and are failing to allow for an increase in turnout next time.

  13. Good evening all from a wet and windy Hampshire.

    All polls pointing to a solid Tory lead and cross breaks still showing the SNP running riot in Scotland. It’s like Déjà vu, I’m sure I said the same thing a few months back before I headed off to Australia.

    With Labour still polling poorly and the re-moaning anti Brexit campaign against the government I have a sneaky suspicion May might call a snap election.

  14. AC
    Calling a snap election is no longer in May’s gift , and if the polls remain close to where they are at present Corbyn would be failing in his duty to the party he leads were he to agree to such an election.

  15. COLIN

    From your link..

    “Blair has recruited Jim Murphy, the former Scottish Labour leader and shadow defence secretary, as one of his advisers”
    _____

    This is gripping stuff. Jim Murphy was the architect of Scottish Labour’s electoral success in 2015. Next we will be reading Jim Murphy has invited Blair up to Scotland and taking him on a grand tour of Scottish Labour’s Westminster constituency’s.

  16. Just a thought.

    If we do have a general election, how would May stand up to Corbyn in a bona fide debate?

    I can imagine her coming across as stale and insincere, him as impassioned and earnest.

    Comments?

  17. GRAHAM
    AC
    “Calling a snap election is no longer in May’s gift , and if the polls remain close to where they are at present Corbyn would be failing in his duty to the party he leads were he to agree to such an election”
    ________

    In KFC they would call this “being a fried chicken” ;-)

  18. Allan Christie

    When this Blair/Murphy story first broke (a couple of threads ago?) I wondered whether John McTernan would be brought back as well.

    Guess who’s on Newsnight tonight, lauding Blair?

  19. GRAHAM
    “These are obviously poor polls for Labour but they do not suggest electoral wipeout or Armageddon. A Tory lead of 12 to 14% implies a majority in the range of 60 to 80 seats – a good win but well short of Thatcher’s majorities in 1983 & 1987 or Blairs wins in 1997 & 2001”
    _________

    It’s not quite as simple as that. The small factor of Brexit and UKIP lurking about in the die hard Labour heartlands plus the small factor of the Lib/Dems taking some seats back off Labour because they are seen as the main standard bearer’s against Brexit.

    I don’t think the polls are picking up the undercurrents in British politics.

  20. @Kester Leek

    How on Earth I wonder would you actually get two politicians to have a bona fide debate?

    I’ve never seen such a thing and don’t expect to.

    In a hypothetical world where such a thing were possible, I expect the results would look a bit like Oldnat’s list of Remain/Leave cross-breaks.

    Everyone who likes May would say she walked it. Everyone who likes Corbyn would say he walked it.

  21. @Graham

    I think with the current voter distribution, a 14% lead for the Tories over Labour would pretty much crush the PLP to a rump. And if the boundary changes go through even more so.

  22. CANDY

    That’s extraordinary. Is this a Think Tank-or is their party political ambition involved.?

    Whatever next ?

    ALLAN

    Cheeky !! :-)

  23. Governments lose elections when they lose the trust of the public and an opposition that reflects the mood of the voters better exists that is trusted more.

    On this basis Labour do look lost entirely.

    Brexit seems to very muddled, and could be a real weakness for Theresa May, but the Government is closer to the mood of the public than Labour.

    Mr Corbyn looks already written off by too much of the press and public to take Labour to a winning position.

    I think it’s unfair to blame JC, however. There are times in politics when the wind is blowing strongly in one direction, and if that’s not your direction then there is little you can do. Ask any Conservative about life from 1997 to 2005.

    Things could change. Brexit could be a slow burn nightmare that lasts for years and years. Negotiating it will be like wading through treacle, and there is little evidence of a Government strategy to keep a strong course. One big issue that I think will not go well is the freedom of movement. I can currently only see a messy compromise that will displease the Brexit purists.

    I think that JC should be safe for a while as his party largely backs him, and there is perhaps little attraction in leading the party now for many would-be PMs. Any one who is a real contender will keep their powder dry for better times.

    I could be entirely wrong, but unless we get several political earthquakes, I don’t think our Government will be changing in the near future.

  24. OLDNAT

    “Guess who’s on Newsnight tonight, lauding Blair?”
    _______

    I’m guessing a toss-up between John McTernan and Kermit the Frog?

  25. Allan Christie

    Re our recent discussion on polling and the EU, you may be interested in this report.

    http://www.yescalifornia.org/

    Across the EU as a whole, 62 per cent of those polled would vote to stay in the EU compared with 57 per cent in March, according to Bertelsmann’s polling which covered nearly 15,000 respondents. The poll was conducted in August 2016 a few weeks after the British referendum.

    In Britain, support rose to 56 per cent after the Brexit vote, compared to 49 per cent before. Approval rates fell in Spain to 68 per cent, but rose in the other four big continental member states – Germany, France, Italy and Poland.

  26. @Neil A
    A 14% Tory lead implies a swing from Labour to Tory of 3.7% and would result in 31 Tory gains from Labour based on Anthony’s Tory target list. In reality, the swing appears to be a fair bit higher in Scotland implying a correspondingly smaller swing in England & Wales. On these figures Labour would still have over 200 MPs.
    One of the seats that should be picked up by the Tories is Tooting in Wandsworth – yet the June by election and more recent local by elections there do not suggest that to be very likely in practice!

  27. @Graham

    Labour have held up remarkably well in London for sure, but that what Labour need to do is pick up seats in the South, South East and so on.

    There is no indication this is likely to happen. If you look at the cross breaks, the Conservatives are commanding in those areas. Given the Tory dominance there, they can afford to have little penetration in the northern Labour strongholds, where in fact it’s UKIP pushing Labour.

    Labour needs a miracle, maybe two or three, if they want a sniff power in the next five to ten years.

  28. OLDNAT

    Ah now I never said more people were wanting to leave the EU. Lets face it most of the Eastern European lot know what side their bread is buttered on.

    What I’m on about is that there is more discontent with the EU within member states over issues like member states not happy at having to take in their share of migrants, free movement of people and German hegemony over the EU. Plus we are seeing splits in the EU over Russian sanctions.

    The thing needs to reform or we will see more and more anti establishment victories within the EU and that doesn’t necessarily mean a break up is imminent.

    Mind you I might be talking pis# now that Blair is on the prowl to bash the anti establishment movements….;-)

  29. […] Talk of Corbyn being seen as ‘impassioned and earnest’ against May’s ‘stale and insincere’.

    ??

    The voting public have had plenty of time to assess Corbyn’s earnestness, and they think he is completely useless, while May, who has been on our TV screens for over six years, is seen as highly competent and popular. Why on earth do some Labour posters continually drift into this la-la land of imagining ‘if only we could have XXX then the voters would see the truth’? The truth is, they’ve seen the truth, and that is why May is 14% clear with an absolutely towering lead on economic competence.

    If there was to be an election tomorrow, Labour would face complete humiliation, with I suspect the worst damage being done in their heartlands, as they leach votes to both UKIP and the Lib Dems from different wings.

  30. Old Nat,

    Interesting find.

  31. @CMJ – “I think it’s unfair to blame JC, however. There are times in politics when the wind is blowing strongly in one direction, and if that’s not your direction then there is little you can do.”

    I think this is being very kind to JC.

    The staggering thing […] is precisely the point that in politics today, the winds really are already blowing very strongly in his direction, but he has been singularly incapable of getting his sails up.

    Within the UK, across Europe and now the US, we have seen electorates become ever more disenchanted with globalization. As the architects of defective free trade deals in the US, Democrats struggled to cope with the backlash, but in the UK the talk of people being left behind should mean the going is so easy for Labour to capitalise on.

    Instead, Corbyn is viewed as an irrelevance, while May decides she will become the working mans saviour.

    Doom awaits.

  32. I wonder if given the bad press for Corbyn and the in-fighting in the Labour party there might come an element of ‘shy’ Labour voters not telling pollsters the truth?

    Even so a 12 – 14 point lead is just too large for polling errors and shy voters to affect the outcome of an election.

    I have to admit that although I don’t agree with much of Corbyns policies I do find him a sincere conviction politician which is refreshing in these days of stale apparatchiks.

    The question is though, given the momentum movements grasp of the reins of Labour, if Corbyn lost an election and resigned, who would take his place?
    Which way would Labour move? Back to the centre or even further to the left?
    There doesn’t appear to be a Blair type figure amongst their ranks to take the party to power.
    I can remember when the Tories lost their third general election, question marks over whether the party was finished, the pendulum certainly has swung.

  33. Never say never in politics, and the key to the next election is still likely to be dictated by those economic competence numbers. At present, Tories would walk it, with Labour facing a huge electoral wipe out.

    However, numbers can change. To see Tory economic numbers fall wouldn’t need too much imagination. Some Brexit inspired troubles, a global slow down, deficit problems – all of these could cause some economic pain, and a consequent loss of warmth towards the government.

    But that is only one side of the equation. To capitalise, Labour would need to convince voters both that the problems were due to this specific government, as opposed to wider, global events, and that they themselves have a better answer to the problems.

    Under the current leadership, I really do struggle to see this second requirement being met. I think Corbyn and O’Donnell are finished as serious politicians in the eyes of the majority of voters, and even if May and Hammond really do screw up on the economy, enough people will vote for them from fear of Labour being even worse.

    I may be wrong, but I suspect Corbyn is not capable of exciting enough support to make the next election competitive, even against a helpful backdrop.

  34. @OLDNAT

    “Net Approval
    Remainers : Sturgeon +22 : Corbyn +4 : Farron 0 : May -2 : Farage -55
    Leavers : May +40 : Farage +13 : Farron -41 : Corbyn -44 : Sturgeon -46.”

    This shows that remainers only see Sturgeon as having the proverbial ‘spheres’ to challenge the government on Brexit. No surprise there. Farron has been unimpressive as Lib-Dem leader and he must be concerned at the latest polls – the Lib-Dems should be doing far better.

    What is more surprising is that May only gets -2 from remainers – for myself I rate her as hardly better than Farage. In fact, in many ways I prefer Farage because at least he is open and sincere about what he wants. I think May is still in honeymoon phase and she will stay in this phase for a while yet.

  35. Part of the reason Tories stayed in the wilderness so long was that Nulab seized a chunk of their territory, in particular the more neoliberal economics. To get back into the fray the Tories in turn had to adopt the more liberal Nulab social stance. (Plus be helped out by a huge banking meltdown).

    Pendulum has swung again indeed, and Tories have tacked left, moving onto Corbyn’s interventionist terrain, so it’s no surprlse this has depressed his polling somewhat. It’s somewhat similar to what Trump and the Republicans have done across the pond.

    Well, I say this, but so far it’s mostly rhetoric. We shall see how far it goes in reality…

  36. Tancred

    “see Sturgeon as having the proverbial ‘spheres’ to challenge the government on Brexit.”

    Alternatively, on both sides of the EU fault line, perhaps voters see those politicians with “spheres” as much less effective than those who have “hemispheres” located on the upper torso?

    eg Merkel still has 71% popularity after all this time in power. The popular US vote was for Clinton …

    In Scotland “hemi-spherical” politicians lead the 3 largest parties, while the “spherical” ones lead the minnows.

    Le Pen could yet be a greater possibility than we think! :-)

  37. @Thoughtful

    “Which way would Labour move? Back to the centre or even further to the left?”

    —————

    They’re already pretty close to the centre. to move further left would take them away from the centre.

    Tories have moved closer to the centre too under May. Both Tories and Labour advocate moderate levels of intervention. Labour more than Tories but it’s not exactly a planned economy.

    We’ve been very much more to the right for decades economically since the developments in the Eighties but the banking crash showed the problems with leaving it to the markets and forced a move back to the centre and more intervention.

  38. @OLDNAT

    “Allan Christie
    Re our recent discussion on polling and the EU, you may be interested in this report.
    http://www.yescalifornia.org/

    Fascinating! Secession on the agenda once again – first time since 1865. But this time it’s the liberal-libertarians wanting it, not the conservative South.
    I don’t think California should go it alone in such a situation – if they could persuade Oregon and Washington state to join them then they would have a genuinely viable Pacific state with huge potential and 50 million inhabitants. Now, whether the US government would be prepared to let that happen is an open question; I suspect they would, but at a price, and a high one at that. There would be a steep exit fee, for sure.

  39. planned = command

  40. @OLDNAT

    “Alternatively, on both sides of the EU fault line, perhaps voters see those politicians with “spheres” as much less effective than those who have “hemispheres” located on the upper torso?”

    Maybe. I certainly think that many people – both men and women – are fed up with the old boys network and see women in politics as a good thing.

    “eg Merkel still has 71% popularity after all this time in power. The popular US vote was for Clinton …”

    Merkel is popular because Germans are extremely averse to anyone except a ‘safe pair of hands’. Risk is something Germans don’t like – there is a reason why they are one of the most insured people in the world. And Clinton did attract a lot of women voters, for obvious reasons, but wasn’t so popular with men.

    “In Scotland “hemi-spherical” politicians lead the 3 largest parties, while the “spherical” ones lead the minnows.
    Le Pen could yet be a greater possibility than we think! :-)”

    Clearly a lot of Le Pen’s popularity is due to the fact that she is a woman. This makes her less threatening than someone like her father, who is viewed as a ranting fanatic. But I don’t think it will be enough to win her the support she needs.

  41. @Catmanjeff
    I am aware of Labour’s problems in the South – outside London and a few urban centres – and largely agree with Alec’s comments regarding Corbyn’s competence. Nevertheless , these polls would still only imply the loss of 20 – 30 seats to the Tories implying a Tory majority of 60 – 80.
    Personally, I will be surprised if the Tories do end up winning the next election by 12%. At the moment they are still being flattered by May’s honeymoon – and possibly by overcompensation for the polling debacle of 2015. As of now I would expect most Tory leaning doubtful voters to be recorded by pollsters as Tory voters – rather suggesting that the residual Don’t Knows are more likely to fall to Labour or other Opposition parties in due course.

  42. @Peter Bell

    I explained where they had tacked left, in terms of economic intervention.

    yes, you can argue other dimensions have shifted rightwards, e.g. on immigration etc.

  43. @OLDNAT “Net Approval

    Remainers : Sturgeon +22 : Corbyn +4 : Farron 0 : May -2 : Farage -55
    Leavers : May +40 : Farage +13 : Farron -41 : Corbyn -44 : Sturgeon -46.”

    The only politician with a net positive rating is May on +38.

    Apart from Farage, who is a divisive figure, it appears that if you are perceived as anti-brexit your overall approval ratings are in the tank.

    The “British fair play” attitude at play?

    I also see Trump has tweeted that Farage should be Ambassador to the USA and that Blair is returning to lead the remnants of Labour’s center-left against Brexit.

    You couldn’t make it up. You’d have to have a heart of stone not to laugh at the thought of Guardianistas imploding into their lattes in London this morning.

  44. @Kester Leek “Just a thought. If we do have a general election, how would May stand up to Corbyn in a bona fide debate?
    I can imagine her coming across as stale and insincere, him as impassioned and earnest.
    Comments?”

    Corbyn would get crucified in a General Election campaign both in the debates and around the country. The videos of his and McDonnell’s pronouncements on the IRA and Hamas would go down like a lead balloon. Their comments on NATO and the military similarly. The bennite and marxist comments they have both made in the last 35 years would be ruthlessly used against them. The fact that 82% of the party had voted against him and called him incompetent would be used. Talk about open goals…

    The Tory party would have a total field day. It would be like hunting a three legged fox with a minigun.

    Note that they have kept their powder totally dry up until now, praying that it is Corbyn they will be jousting with at the ballot box come the next election.

  45. i do not think politics will be the same in 2020.I see the emergence of a left of centre/remain party over the next four years.

    this could be terminal for labour and the liberals and very damaging to the tories.To survive the tories will need to be disciplined but clearly rooted in brexit.

    perhaps it is Blair who is thinking of creating an internet party. We have assumed that such parties have to be right wing.But why?Is this what Blair meant when he called for remainers to be insurgents?

  46. @S Thomas,

    I don’t really believe in “terminal” when it comes to party politics.

  47. OLDNAT

    @”Le Pen could yet be a greater possibility than we think! :-)”

    It is intriguing.

    FN have attacked Fillon for his right wing economic platform. Fillon matches FN’s attitude to Islamic extremism, so the choice may essentially be economic , rather than social policy.

    FN’s protectionist policies seem much closer to what we think of as the French preference.

  48. I can’t imagine anything happening to stop an early general election, because i don’t see it being in Theresa Mays or Tories interest to hold on to May 2020.

    If you think about it. Brexit will be very difficult with so many challenges ; the financial position with a continuing sizeable deficit ; House of Commons slim majority and no majority for Brexit; House of Lords with no government majority and likely to be against any Brexit deal ; boundary changes due in 2018 which will make many MP’s very unhappy; Labour party in a mess with a leader not supported in Parliament or generally in the country; Lib Dems with far fewer activists around the country and no money for an election campaign ; UKIP in a real mess.

    Why would any Tory PM having just taken over wait until May 2020, when the risk of doing so is too great to take ? The UK might well still be in the EU by May 2020, Labour might well have a new leader who is more popular in the country, UKIP may well have recovered from their current difficulties gaining support from leave supporters and Lib Dems may well be much stronger to fight an election.

    The Tories can fight an election at any time of their choosing. They have the organisation and money to do so, when other parties will find it very difficult. The electorate would not be unhappy about an early election, if it was for the purpose of giving a government a strong mandate to deliver a manifesto they agreed with.

  49. Not good for Labour, but unsurprising.

    I know several former Labour voters who will not vote for the party again so long as JC continues as leader, including a number who have resigned as party members since his re-election.

    True I also know others who will now vote Labour again because of JC, including those who have re-joined the party, but so far as I’m aware none of these have ever voted UKIP, Tory, or LibDem in the past.

    And among those acquaintances who voted Tory at the last election, but who voted for Blair in at least one previous election, without exception they regard JC with contempt.

  50. @ R Huckle

    The only thing that occurs to me is that the Tories probably believe that Corbyn will only be Labour leader for a single GE campaign. He is a gift, but not necessarily a gift that keeps on giving.

    There might be an argument in Tory circles that it is better to cash in the Corbyn chip as late as possible. Let him benefit the Tories throughout the current parliament then gift them 2020, so that their next realistic test is 2025, rather than let him crash and burn in 2017 and potentially get replaced by someone better who might challenge the Tories in 2022.

    But otherwise I agree it must be under serious consideration. The next 3 years would be a lot easier with a majority of 80 than one of 10ish.

    Corbyn has slightly boxed himself in by so publicly declaring that he wants to have a GE as soon as possible. To reverse this now, in the face of very bad polls, might add a touch of “Gordon Brown is Frit” to his already poor profile. Although how much worse the situation can get is open to question.

    I still believe that there will be a false dawn for Labour in the next couple of years, with economic woes causing a downturn in support for the Tories, but Corbyn is the very last person I’d want to try and capitalise on it if I were Labour.

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