No Bregrets

Almost as soon as the referendum votes were counted people were asking for polling on whether people regretted their decision. There is still a certain audience who seem downright desperate to find polling showing that people do not, after all, want to leave the European Union (and, I suppose, a (slightly larger) audience who want to see polls showing they don’t!). I guess this is the curse of a referendum decision that takes a couple of years to actually implement.

The most straightforward way of measuring Bregret is to ask the referendum question again – how would people vote if the referendum question was asked again now. Several polls have done that:

YouGov/Eurotrack (20th-25th Oct) Remain 44%, Leave 43%
BMG (19th-24th Oct) Remain 45%, Leave 43%
YouGov/Eurotrack (21st-22nd July) Remain 43%, Leave 44%
YouGov/Eurotrack (3rd-4th July) Remain 45%, Leave 45%

All of these suggest a very small movement towards Remain, and given Leave’s lead was only four points that’s enough to flip the result in a couple of cases. However, I’d be a little cautious in reading too much into the results. All of these polls are just straight “how would you vote questions” with no attempt to account for differential turnout, when at the referendum Leave voters were more liable to turnout. If you look at the actual tables for these you’ll find there is very little movement between remain and leave, the shift is down to people who didn’t vote in the referendum claiming that in a referendum tomorrow they would vote in favour of Remain. That’s possible of course (perhaps people who assumed a Remain victory in June and didn’t bother to vote, now realising their vote really would count)… but I’m rather sceptical about people saying they’d vote in an EU referendum who didn’t bother to vote in the one we just had.

The approach alternative is to ask if people think it was the right decision and if they might change their vote.

Just after the referendum there was an poll by Ipsos MORI for Newsnight, which showed 43% of people thought Brexit was the right decision, 44% thought it was the wrong decision. Asked if they would change their mind in a new referendum, 1% of Remain voters said they would definitely or probably change their mind, 5% of Leave voters said they would definitely or probably change their mind. If those people all switched to the other side it would have just edged into a Remain lead.

In contrast YouGov have regularly asked if people think the decision to leave was right or wrong, and have tended to find slightly more people saying it was the right decision. The pattern of opinion is pretty consistent – movement between Remain and Leave is small and tends to cancel out, people who didn’t vote at all tend to split in favour of it being the wrong decision:

YouGov/Times (11th-12th Oct) – Right to Leave 45%, Wrong to Leave 44%
YouGov/Times (13th-14th Sep) – Right to Leave 46%, Wrong to Leave 43%
YouGov/Times (30th-31st Aug) – Right to Leave 47%, Wrong to Leave 44%
YouGov/Times (22nd-23rd Aug) – Right to Leave 45%, Wrong to Leave 43%
YouGov/Times (8th-9th Aug) – Right to Leave 45%, Wrong to Leave 44%
YouGov/Times (1st-2nd Aug) – Right to Leave 46%, Wrong to Leave 42%

Finally the British Election Study asked a question on whether people regretted how they voted or not. Only 1% of people who voted Remain said they regretted their vote, but 6% of people who voted Leave said they regretted their vote. Now, saying you’ve some regrets doesn’t necessarily mean that you wouldn’t, on balance, end up doing the same. For what it’s worth though, if those people who had regrets hadn’t voted the result would still have been leave; if those people had voted the opposite way it would’ve been Remain.

Looking across the board at all this polling, there is a suggestion that public opinion may have moved very slightly towards Remain, and with only a four point lead that’s enough to change the lead in some polls. However, in most cases that apparent movement isn’t people changing their minds, but is down to the opinions of those people who didn’t actually vote last time. That means if there was another referendum right now, if turnout was similar to June the result would probably be similar too.

My expectation is that, given time, we probably will see “Bregret”, simply because Brexit is going to be tested against reality while Remain isn’t. The road ahead has a lot of obstacles and some Leavers’ hopes and expections will be dashed (Remainers’ hopes and expectations of what would have happened if we’d stayed won’t, of course, face the same collision with reality). The lead at the referendum was only 4%, so it really won’t take that many people having second thoughts to flip opinion over. To those who really want to see evidence of Bregret in the polls – have a bit of patience. It will probably come in time, but the data really isn’t there to support it now.


814 Responses to “No Bregrets”

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  1. As the GOP will control the whole federal Government, we shall see how strong the American Constitution is. Will the USA become a banana republic?

  2. @JP

    Just quickly, three points…

    1) Don’t forget Blair and Brown rather embraced the neolib thing, happy to see utility bills rise, house prices stoked, real wages flatline, immigration rise sans sufficient mitigating measures etc.

    2) Even if Brexit does wind up giving some unpleasant medicine, it may not be blamed on Brexit. Economic disasters are frequently successfully blamed on summat other than the real cause.

    3) Even if you have a more sophisticated approach to the economy you’re not outta the woods if the resulting benefits sans sufficient contribution result in a more narcissistic generation who then pull the ladder up behind them.

  3. Carfrew

    These voters are right to blame neolibpolicies and outcomes but this will not solve their problems.

    It is possible for working class conditions to get much worse. They were for most of the time before WW2.

  4. Hawthorn,
    “These voters are right to blame neolibpolicies and outcomes but this will not solve their problems.”

    Brexit will not. Trump, remains to be seen what he will do. Nothing short of a total reversal of the principle of increasing wealth inequality will help the poor white working class. I dont know anyone who is serious about that. “Its the economy, stupid”, as I keep saying is the root cause of Brexit.

  5. looks like the liberal elite have to use a phrase have taken a hell of a beating. This would not have been possible without brexit.

    Farage-the merlin of politics.US ambassador to to the EU?

  6. Just goes to show the media: every twitter user does not have a thousand votes!

  7. No, Farage did not do it. Trump was rolling before Brexit. The same forces apply in both countries and others as well. The whole philosophy of western capitalism dictates a poor disadvantaged working class and this is the root cause of disaffection by these people. Brexit captured that wave, Trump has too. Both Farage and Trump did a bl**dy good job, technically speaking.

    What are the implications on a nation just stepping out into an unprotected trade world at the start of a trade war between the US and everyone else?

  8. That was a particularly savage night for Democrats, starting with ample signs that Trump had faltered, only then to see the slow crushing of all hope. Presumably the initial failure to call traditional red states was to do with redundant modelling of exit polls, perhaps linked to the general failure of almost the entire US polling industry.A black night all round.

  9. Danny

    “What are the implications on a nation just stepping out into an unprotected trade world at the start of a trade war between the US and everyone else?”

    There’s no need for a trade war. Trump’s not dumb and in the long run China is better off with balanced trade also.

  10. Who would call an early election now?

  11. 30-ish years ago the banking gangsters hijacked the West and started slowly bleeding it dry.

    Hopefully this the beginning of the end for them.

  12. Clinton has conceded to Trump

    I don’t think anyone can now seriously deny that Farage’s political instincts have been proven to be highly accurate.

    He called UK EU Election 2014, Called Brexit (even though he wobbled on the actual night with nerves) and has now called the US Election.

    He will be bestriding the political scene for a long time to come now.

  13. Danny

    sorry not suggesting that did. Its just he seems to b e on the winning side everytime. Euros,brexit and now US.

    How can a system that does not reward him with a peerage but rewards bag carriers and the guy who lost the campaign for cameron.
    I will be asking for the lottery numbers from him.

  14. Can Trump really stop American companies taking part in globalisation, by investing in manufacturing outside of America ?

    http://news.sky.com/story/inequality-globalisation-and-why-donald-trump-won-10650848

    I can’t see that Trump can gain political approval for taxation measures or customs tariffs to motivate American companies to bring manufacturing back to America.

    People might have voted for Trump out of frustration with world economics, but they will grow even more frustrated if it is not possible for Trump to implement any economic policies that he has promised.

    My opinion is that Brexit and Trump are partly protest votes by people fed up with a failure of the world financial system, which had a heart attack in 2007/08, with little real recovery since. Over the coming years we will see similar protest votes in other countries including Germany, but i don’t see any real chance of changing to a less globalised world, with wealth being spread more thinly.

  15. I was absorbed by the US car crash, so thanks to Carfrew for reminding me that the cricket is on. England going well.

    The bad news is that we bought our holiday dollars yesterday.

  16. @Thomas (5. 05)

    I would suggest that any Conservative correction factor should be in negative terms. Don’t forget that they are the establishment and we have just witnessed the latest step in the anti-establishment movement.

  17. So, what are the chances for a Marine le Pen victory in the French presidential contest next spring? The people are simply not happy with the sanctimonious, we know best, do as I say, not as I do, you’re an idiot for voting Brexit, ruling liberal elite.

    Fortunately for the uk Mrs May understands that.

  18. I was thinking of moving to Scotland to escape what is coming. Now trump is in we are all doomed. Mars?

    I fear the future. I have never felt this.

  19. I read somewhere recently that the median American male is presently earning exactly the same in real terms as he was in 1976. A staggering statistic if true, and probably the core explanation for the result.

    An amazing stat from last night: 88% of black voters chose Clinton, only 8% went for Trump.

  20. Robert yea like Germany was eh? Tut.

  21. Good evening all from a warm and pleasant evening here in Melbourne Australia.

    Congratulations to President Trump. The alternative was just too risky.

  22. Wonder what the ramifications for Brexit will be. I think Trump will expedite trade deal with Britain. Most importantly, since Trump unlike Obama supported Brexit and secession of a member state from the EU, the EU has now lost its key international sponsor and taken a massive blow.

  23. R Huckle,
    “People might have voted for Trump out of frustration with world economics, but they will grow even more frustrated if it is not possible for Trump to implement any economic policies that he has promised.”

    Then the question is will Trump go native and toe the republican line, or will he attack the republican party? He could get a second term on demanding a congress which agrees with him.

  24. TANCRED
    Clinton ahead in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Game over for Trump.
    ______________

    What election were you watching?

  25. There is clearly populist wave sweeping the world, where a large swathe of people don’t believe the experts, don’t trust anyone that comes from the traditional political sphere, but will put huge faith in people who claim to be anti-establishment, ascribe problems to single causes, offer simple solutions and make expansive promises.

    That wave is primarily flowing on the right of the political spectrum.

    An economic settlement were the bulk of the benefits of growth flowed to a very small elite has fuelled huge resentment.

    The key questions for me are:
    – the populist movement is cheered on by paid-up members of that elite; I can’t see them giving up their benefits, so how will they control the inevitable disappointment of the populist movement members when it comes? Who will they blame for Trump’s failure to deliver?
    – the populist movement is in an alliance with old school right wingers; the tensions are most visible in the US, but also amongst our only right wing here. How will this be resolved – can they continue to work together in victory?
    – will the populist manifestos win through: will there be hard Brexit? Will US trade agreements be torn up and a trade war started with China? Or will it turn out to be bluster? If the former, the world will be a very different and much harsher place; if the latter, the populists will feel doubly betrayed, and who knows where that leads?

    The disconnect between belief and reality is wider than at any time in my lifetime, and it feels very uncomfortable indeed…

  26. Back after a few hours’ kip.

    I was wrong and Trump has pulled off a HUGE upset.
    Am I concerned? No. I’m not American and don’t live in America.
    My only concern is the stock market volatility, as my precious pension fund is invested there. That’s the only thing I’m worried about.

    Trump will be of enormous moral support to the brexiteers, no doubt about it. May could find that he will be open to discussing trade deals, but then again he will not be wanting to prejudice any future EU-USA deal. Time will tell as to what the impact of a Trump victory will be.

  27. Robert,
    “So, what are the chances for a Marine le Pen victory in the French presidential contest next spring? The people are simply not happy with the sanctimonious, we know best, do as I say, not as I do, you’re an idiot for voting Brexit, ruling liberal elite.

    Fortunately for the uk Mrs May understands that.”

    Trouble is,only half the people voted for Brexit. Half were against it. Mrs May has simply adopted Brexit as a policy and grafted it onto all the others she already had. That isnt giving the people what they want, and she will run into this contradiction sonner or later.

    I dont know whether Trump may succeed: if he does that is a big attack on the two party monopoly of power. If he fails, it is a demonstration the system cannot work for the people and they will support it even less.

    The implications of Le Penn may be a tougher Brexit deal and increased EU tariffs against the world, including Britain.

  28. I now believe May would be foolish not to offer Farage some kind of official role.

    He has a friendship with Trump having campaigned for him, advised him and spoke at events to raise money for him.

    —- He’s just spoken this as I was writing it…

    “Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has told The Telegraph that Mr Trump’s election will represent a “massive result” for Britain.

    He said that the UK would have a “friend in the White house” who will prioritise trade relations with the UK.

    He will travel to the US to meet with Mr Trump and his team, but refused to say whether he wants a formal role in the administration.

    “There will be some celebrations I expect,” he said. “I know most of his team his team very well, many of them are my friends.”

    He said: “This is a massive result as far as Britain is concerned with have a friend in the White House, admires our culture, feels his mothers Scottish roots very deeply and wants to put us at the front of the queue for trade deals.”

    He admitted that Britain will have to persuade Mr Trump to back Nato, but added: “We can build a very important bridge with Nato. He is asking very important questions about why some members aren’t pulling their weight.”

    He said that Britain should not be “afraid” of Mr Trump. He said:” Do you know what we just rejected a hawk, a neo-con in favour of someone who wants to talk to Mr Putin, who wants jaw-jaw not war-war. This guy is not a military hawk. ”

    “It’s good news for all of us in the Western World who believe in nation-state democracy.”

    He said that the political establishment in Britain has made a “huge mistake” by failing to take Mr Trump seriously.

    He said: “It seems to me the only people in Britain who know him are Piers Morgan and myself.

    “I think we are seeing a sea-change in politics and not before time in my view. I was in London tonight but I shall be in America later in the week.”

  29. @Tancred
    If you think Trump belng elected president won’t affect you in the UK the I suggest that you are dangerously complacent.

    As a few starters:
    – he has signalled no willingness to support the Baltic states if Russia imposes military pressure; the chances of war in Eastern Europe have just ratcheted up massively.
    – his economic approach is sufficiently ill-defined and nonsensical as to mean that no-one knows what he is going to do; abrogation of trade deals may lead to a 30’s style recession, he has talked about defaulting on US government debt, as well as massive cuts to taxes with no corresponding reduction in spending – his policy is both economically illiterate and at odds with the rest of the Republican party, which looks like a recipe for chaos in business and the markets.
    – he is going to rip up the Paris Climate treaty, which will destroy any realistic chance of controlling climate change. It won’t do me that much harm but my kids and grandchildren may well pay a massive price.
    – he is pushing the world toward less free trade at a time when we have left the EU on a ‘more free trade’ platform – that leaves the UK isolated, unless of course we become the 51st State.

  30. Those who gloat at Trump’s victory should remember that Hillary Clinton was damaged goods right from the start. She was perceived as an insider and a corrupt one at that. Americans are still basically liberals – if you look at the vote breakdown, Clinton had a huge majority in the under 30 age group. Trump was able to motivate the older vote and the white working class vote. In future years, both Britain and the US will return to the centre ground of politics that they occupied in the nineties and noughties. This is the last blast of the right, not its new dawn.

  31. I am not as surprised by Trump as some appear to be.

    I said throughout the Dem primaries that HC was a terrible candidate. It was clear as day even at that time that the Dems needed a Bernie Sanders and not a Hilary Clinton. Anti establishment sentiment had been soaring for some time, and he could be more establishment than HC?

    True, I thought Trump was a worse candidate and he did everything humanly possible to lose. But he wasn’t a politician. He maximised his core vote. And he had a charisma and passion that Clinton simply did not possess. This would not usually be enough. This is very much a one-off Presidential election. But for this election, it was enough.

  32. Typo in para 2. Should read:

    ” Anti establishment sentiment had been soaring for some time, and who could be more establishment than HC?”

  33. @ Bigfatron

    Politicians playing a populist anti establishment game are just doing it to win power. But they will blame the establishment when they fail to make the changes they promised. If Trump fails to deliver jobs and greater prosperity to those states where he won, he will blame Washington politicians blocking his agenda. It will be the same in the UK with Brexit, with government blaming establishment blockers from achieving the deal people wanted.

    Clinton failed to make the case about the economic changes her government would make. Instead Trump was allowed to dominate the agenda by getting the establisment to attack him and Clinton mostly just joined in with the attack.

  34. @Danny “Trouble is, only half the people voted for Brexit.”

    It’s much more than that in electoral terms. It’s 2/3 to 1/3 on a constituency basis. And if there is any attempt at blocking or backsliding then a General Election will set the matter right.

    I think we can start turning our attention to Ireland and its exit from the EU.

    The clear solution is a free trade deal between Ireland, UK and USA with Canada & Australia/NZ to come as well. This would be an English speaking free trade area of 450 Million people.

  35. I had no intention of staying up for the election (partly as I assumed it would be a fairly solid Clinton win) but foolishly I thought I’d stay up for the first couple of tranches of results…

    Several hours later I couldn’t take my eyes off the screen…

    Now I’ve had to ask for some time off work.

    It will be a bizarre couple of years in the world, that’s for sure. A lot of comfortable assumptions no longer apply. From the unravelling of democracy in Russia and Turkey, to the prospects for relations with Iran in the wake of the defeat of IS, to Brexit and the EU, to the balance of power in the Pacific. The world is going to look a lot less “End of History” than it did a few years ago.

    I am grateful, retrospectively, that most Tory politicians refrained from attacking Trump too vocally. His relationships with European countries are going to be tense and hopefully May will be relatively in favour with him. I certainly expect a lot of US cheerleading for Brexit negotiations, although who knows if that will actually help.

    It is possible that unless he governs in a very different way than he campaigned (which I assume will be the case actually) that demographics and collisions with reality will put him out of contention for re-election in 2022, but to some extent that depends on what happens to the Democrats and whether they can foster the promotion of a candidate who can rebuild the alliance between the white working class and the other wings of the party’s support.

    I can’t decide in my head whether this was an election the Republicans won because they picked Trump or whether Clinton was such an establishment candidate that a restless electorate would have backed almost any opponent, and that Trump’s style counted against him.

    Let’s all hope that most of it was bluster and narcissism and that once in the White House he takes a collegiate approach where he gets the trappings and the spotlight but more experienced, more sensible heads get to manage the daily business of government.

    One has to assume that Obamacare is toast (this alone will probably mean my US-resident brother will have to migrate back home). I suspect NAFTA will get amended rather than scrapped. The Supreme Court is clearly going to get a locked-in conservative majority. I expect US backing for the Kurds and other Syrian groups will be removed or reduced (although that game may be over before this can take effect).

    Nervous times.

  36. Reelection in 2020 obviously…

  37. Tancred’
    “Those who gloat at Trump’s victory should remember that Hillary Clinton was damaged goods right from the start. She was perceived as an insider and a corrupt one at that. Americans are still basically liberals – if you look at the vote breakdown, Clinton had a huge majority in the under 30 age group. Trump was able to motivate the older vote and the white working class vote. In future years, both Britain and the US will return to the centre ground of politics that they occupied in the nineties and noughties. This is the last blast of the right, not its new dawn.”

    I dont agree. Yes, Clinton was damaged goods, but she could have beaten a republican. She could not beat a new socialist, or nationalist, or whatever you might call Trump. He won by promising a new deal for the poor white. Sanders might have beaten him (Clinton lost some of the left), but he equally was unacceptable to the democratic party as Trump was to the republicans.

    His position is not dissimilar to the SNP, who frankly I would vote for if they stood in England. It is a mix of traditional right and left.

    I see no evidence either country will return to traditional right and left. If Trump/ Brexit fail, people will seek yet another alternative.

  38. It would be interesting if Trump won, but then found he could not become President, due to various investigations taking place. I thought that Trump was currently facing possible criminal and civil legal cases against him, which if they have any merit, will make it very difficult being President.

  39. Neil A

    Good post 9.23. Shame about Obamacare – it needs fixing, not repealing, but this will probably be too politically difficult for Republicans now they’ve won a clean sweep of government after all their bluster about repealing it.

    Russia and related items are the other big worry.

    As is generally the unknown on all matters, now the Free World is about to be led by a con man.

  40. Danny

    What is this new deal that Trump has promised for the poor white. I would be glad to know details.

  41. @ NEIL A

    I agree with your post. Anyway you slice this, it’s a Republican clean sweep. House, Senate & Presidency.

    What a total disaster of a candidate Clinton has been for the Democrats. Losing most of the Rust Belt including Pennsylvania. That takes a special kind of talent for a Democrat to do.

  42. @DANNY

    “I dont agree. Yes, Clinton was damaged goods, but she could have beaten a republican. She could not beat a new socialist, or nationalist, or whatever you might call Trump. He won by promising a new deal for the poor white. Sanders might have beaten him (Clinton lost some of the left), but he equally was unacceptable to the democratic party as Trump was to the republicans.”

    Clinton was perceived as being too removed from middle America. She was close to ethnic minority groups, gays, feminists and assorted weirdos of one sort or another. This alienated most Americans who had no empathy for these people. Most people were fed up with Hillary Clinton – it’s a s simple as that. Americans in general are not social liberals – they are economic liberals. I don’t believe Sanders would have beaten Trump – Sanders would have been flamed as closet communist.

  43. It was great night in America for both Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Trump becomes President of the USA, the Republicans take both houses and will be able to fill the vacancy in the Supreme Court to tip the balance in their favour there. It will be fascinating to see how Trump gets on with his own party who owe him a huge debt of gratitude as IMO they won on his coat strings. Many of the Republican elite deserted him during the election. What now for them?

    In terms of the popular vote it was very close. I understand that it is still possible that Clinton will win the popular vote by a small margin. In terms of States won I think you have to go back to Regan’s time for such a sweeping Republican victory. Why did he win? There seem to be a number of clear factors:-

    1. The overall vote was well down, some 20 million less than the last presidential election. Perhaps many could not vote for either candidate and this helped Trump more than Clinton. Certainly it was an awful choice IMO.
    2. The Black vote was well down on expectation, Clinton did not have the pull here that Obama did in 2012.
    3. The Hispanic vote did not split as many had expected. Many established especially ex-Cuban Hispanics held their noses and voted for Trump despite his comments.
    4. The older white voters, the less well educated, and the white working class voters generally voted for Trump in droves, especially in country areas. The educated young, city dwellers and the highly educated generally voted Clinton, but not enough of them. In many ways similar voting patterns to Brexit. It was a kick in the teeth for the establishment, just as Brexit has been in the UK.
    The polls have had a terrible time. Although they showed the race tightening none forecast the Republicans would win like this.

    Clearly there were a lot of “shy Trump voters” who turned out and voted, something I posted as likely before this election. I remember I mentioned a couple of times that I had an uneasy feeling that Trump might just come through, but I certainly didn’t forecast this. However it does follow a theme that I think we are seeing across the World of “the forgotten people” voting in great numbers against the establishments and the metropolitan elites.

    The next big question is will this pattern continue in upcoming European election? Certainly those who feel neglected by their governments will have received enormous encouragement from what has happened in the USA and the UK. We shall see n the next year or so.

  44. Lord Palmerston said nations havea no permanent friends or allies, just permanent interets.

    So where does The Donald’s victory leave us? With opportunities.

    As we leave the EU, we can forge a good trade deal with America – Trump will not put us at the bag of the “line”.

    Putin and Trump, both egotists, will get on so I see no need to worry on that score. They will cancel each other out.

    The EU will, over the next few years, slowly implode as the Euro project unravels because of the poverty it has brought to the working peoples of the continent, most notably in Greece, Spain and Italy. The Europeans will start turning on one another.

    If we stay confident, embrace the world beyond our shores and project both soft and hard power wisely, we can have a great future.

    Finally, I hope people start to question whether the internet is the force for good that so many believe. Yes, we can communicate quickly and easily – this forum for example – but I have had a nagging feeling for a while that overall, it is more “bad” than “good”. It is turning people into hysterical, anxious, depressed softies who take offence at all and sundry remarks. Selfies, Twitter et al are damaging the youngsters.

    Food for thought….

  45. Ok, I’ve seen this on a Twitter feed so not sure of its accuracy. Trump’s demographics:

    63% white men
    52% white women
    13% black men
    4% black women
    33% latino men
    26% latino women

    The surprising one is white women. All polls had Hillary miles ahead amongst women.

    Also, Trump did not do quite as well as expected among white men.

    Curious.

  46. “What is this new deal that Trump has promised for the poor white. I would be glad to know details”

    The deal is simple; protection for American jobs, limiting immigration, repatriation of illegal immigrants and putting America’s interests first instead of those of global pan-global business. He is basically the anti-globalisation candidate.

  47. Those hoping for a good trade deal with the USA need to bear in mind that we would be negotiating with a man who might be prepared to pull the plug on Trident.

  48. With A republican congress and president and with two nominations for the Supreme Court now likely to be Conservatives, the problem for the Republican part and Trump will be living up to expectations as they will not be able to attribute failure to gridlock. It will be interesting to see if the election campaign has ramped up expectations that could never be satisfied. I’d say watch the polls then, but that would just be silly in the circumstances.

  49. that should have read…………….in upcoming European elections………

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