Ipsos MORI have published their monthly political monitor and it shows another towering lead for the Conservatives. Topline voting intentions are CON 47%(+7), LAB 29%(-5), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 6%(-3). The eighteen point Conservative lead is the highest they’ve managed in any poll since 2009, and the highest lead for a party in government since 2002. Usual caveats apply about any poll showing such a large shift in support over a month, but in terms of direction this does echo the ICM and YouGov polls earlier this month that also showed shifts towards the Conservatives. Full details are here.

A quick word about that UKIP score of just 6%. While it is obviously very bad, it’s not the sudden collapse one might assume. For whatever methodological reason, MORI do tend to show significantly worse scores for UKIP than polls from other companies. It is NOT a case of UKIP support being at 11% with ICM and YouGov last week, their MEPs getting into a fist fight and their support collapsing (however tempting such a narrative is!). MORI has been showing them at significantly lower levels of support for several months anyway – 9% last month, 6% in August, 8% in July. Nevertheless, it does appear as if the Tories are beginning to claw back support they’d previously lost to UKIP.


693 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 47, LAB 29, LD 7, UKIP 6”

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  1. Neil A

    I don’t think we can possibly agree, I don’t think it’s moral to say to developing countries “The world is full, you have to tolerate the life expectancies you have now, sorry but we got to a good quality of health care first and you lost that race”.

    The global population is rising now, largely due to increased life expectancy in the developing world, in the UK (and in many countries like Germany, Japan etc) we are well behind the rate needed to sustain a population so in that regard we are doing our bit to reduce the population, If anything cutting off immigration will demand policies that try to increase the birthrate to close to 2.1 children per female so will have a negative impact from the point of your world view. Either that or we deliberately lower the life expectancy in the country to keep keep the ratio of the working age population the same.

    The world isn’t going to get anywhere close to your dystopian future any time soon. I suspect we will be colonising mars and the moon before we get to that point!

  2. what suprises me is that the liberals seem to be contradicting these figures in local elections. Is there any evidence that they are being boosted by the remain vote and euro citizens who can vote locally but not nationally.

  3. It is still too soon to judge the polling impact of the economic situation, which is still mostly hypothetical.

    Anecdotally, I have spoken to three people I know who voted “out”; one though the fall in the £ was a good thing (this was before CPC 2016) and the other two though “it will bounce back like in the past”. The creek they are paddling up is “da Nile”.

    It is of course quite possible that if the Tory party can build up some patriotic fervour then people might ignore poor economic news. It works for Putin after all. However, he does that by adding bits to his country, not losing them which is the more likely outcome for the UK of Brexit.

  4. Maxim Parr-Reid

    “How does that break down for England?”

    Mori have an English geographic cross break in their tables

    Con 51% : Lab 29% : LD 8% : UKIP 7% : Grn 5%.

  5. S THOMAS

    The Liberal situation is interesting.

    To my mind, the Lib Dems are seen as being a life raft captained by a boy scout. Why say you might vote for a dead party? If they win or come close in Witney then there sudden becomes a point in saying you might vote for them which could change that.

    I can see why they would talk themselves up in Witney, but I have seen too many of their bar charts to believe it until I see it.

  6. In my earlier post “though” should have read “thought” in both cases.

  7. Mori has a tendency to be rather volatile in its findings and the sample size is only 625 for those giving a voting intention.I am not sure what the MOE would be.
    The survey fails to confirm ICM’s gender split. ICM gave the Tories a 30% lead with women compared with 11% with men. Mori gives the Tories a 25% lead with men but only 11% with women. Who to believe?

  8. anecdoyaaly i have spoken to 5 people who voted remain.! did so because she liked tapas; 2 did so because they thought the EU had kept the peace since 1945 and the remaining 2 did so because they thought their villa in tuscany would be more diificult to sell.

    Oddly no one did so on the basis that the EC was doing a good job. Perhaps we should send out a search party for the voter who did so.

  9. I understand the arguments for seeking a mandate for Brexit through a general election, and that there are different opinions on this – at least three, roughly represented by Conservative, Labour and LD.

    But there is another factor. Apart from UKPR fans (of which I am one) most people do not particularly like elections.

    Some posters may remember Nick Robinson’s scathing comment years later after Edward Heath called an election in 1974 on the theme of “Who governs?” According to Robinson the reply from the electorate came loud and clear – “Not you mate!”

    I expect the Conservatives will be bearing that in mind.

  10. Alister1948

    Nick Robinson was re-telling a very old joke; I am sure they will be aware of it.

  11. @S THOMAS

    Just goes to show what a pitiful effort the ‘remain’ campaign was. No wonder Cameron is now hated by the EU leaders, and rightly so.

  12. TOH

    I wasn’t joking, well maybe a bit about the Logan’s Run thing but in a way having a good quality life until age x and then you make way would at least be fair, as long as you don’t allow people to buy their way out of the system. It’s arguably more fair and moral than cutting health care and leaving people to suffer the lottery of when ill health takes them.

    I was highlighting options of what reducing the worlds population significantly could entail. Not surprisingly, the means aren’t exactly nice if the desired outcome is for less people to be living. First you have to decide which demographic or geographic sections of the population you’d like there to be less people in.

    I consider all the options to be quite unpalatable and instead think we should look at ways to be more efficient with the land (and sea, there’s an awful lot of sea) we use to sustain the whole of the worlds population with an increasing quality of life.

  13. ALAN

    It is a while since I saw Logan’s Run, but I am I right in recalling that people did not know they would actually be killed at thirty? (or whichever age it was).

  14. Tancred

    Well they didn’t give him anything did they.

    Alan

    I think nature will deal with the population explosion as politicians will just dither. My own bet is a new mega plague.p probably like a new and deadly strain of influenza.

  15. Hawthorn,

    They are promised “renewal” after being zapped, but it turns out to be a sham.

  16. Hawthorn

    I believe they knew and supported the policy enthusiastically. The ages differed between the book and the film (the origin of the policy was due to a demographic shift in which young people outnumbered the elderly). The confusion on Logan’s part was his time was set off too soon without his knowledge as part of his infiltration into the group that opposed the policy and aided runners.

    There was some meta-religious voodoo about “rebirth” going on, whether that was state propaganda or a genuine belief on behalf of the population in response to the short lifespan is left as an exercise for the reader.

  17. TOH

    I have no doubt that at some point in the future something like that will happen (there’s quite a lot of future ahead of us), and the response to it will be a new generation of “boomers”.

    “Sounds awful.”

  18. CL 1945

    ‘”I think May will go in May 2017, ”

    I really hope not-and I don’t think she will.

    She foists all the complexity of staging a Confidence defeat & whatever else is required now to call a GE mid term, whilst in the middle of keeping all the competing Brexit saucers in the air , on the assumption that she will beat Corbyn ……….and thereby risk facing someone like Kier Starmer across the despatch box and rescue the Centre Left.

    Against which, she can carry on as is , with a big personal vote, against non-existent LibDems & a non-operational PLP. OK-a small majority to manage .

    But its a no brainer for me. I don’t think she will be so short sighted.

  19. COLIN

    In general I agree with you, why would she . The one caveat I have is if somehow she is prevented from activating Art 50.

  20. COLIN and HOWARD.
    Hello to you both.

    In any case the centre-right tends to do well in hard times.

  21. ALAN

    @”we are well behind the rate needed to sustain a population ”

    That depends entirely on whether your definition of “sustainable” is simply related to the plundering of resources needed for human existence & consumption.

    Increasingly , there is a more holistic definition of “sustainable” which includes the needs of the whole Biosphere-a definition, which it seems might well highlight the reliance of humans upon it.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/07/160714150633.htm

  22. The purpose of the Fixed Term Parliament Act was to make it virtually impossible to have a General Election in under 5 years from the last, at the cost of giving up the Prime Minister’s tactical possibility of a snap general election.
    I do think those calling for Mrs May to go to the country in ….” seriously underestimate the difficulties.
    That is not to say that defeat in the Commons on some vote or other about Brexit might be represented as a vote of no confidence, but even that leaves open the possibility of someone else forming a government without an election.
    But then
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/early-general-election-can-theresa-may-actually-call-one-a7132846.html
    “It could be literally a one clause bill saying ‘notwithstanding the Fixed Term Parliament’s Act 2011 the next election shall be held on x date’,” he explains. The FTPA would remain in place, but be bypassed.” still needs a majority (and to go through the Lords etc? which could mean quite a long timeframe.)

  23. TOH

    Yes-I agree-she would have to seek a mandate for that-essentially a second referendum masquerading as a GE.

    CL 1945

    You must be in despair Chris. This PM has so many difficult tasks on her plate . Brexit alone is of unprecedented complexity & import-similar in those respects, I would suggest, to WW11.

    Any half-decent , moderate Centre Left politician would be making hay with May’s problems at present .

  24. TOH

    How about delayed? After all, these court cases aren’t about blocking A50, just about putting it before parliament, which would take time. Depending how many appeals it took, to get to the point where a final ruling is made, it might end up a lot later than May 2017 (which might suit her in terms of the timing of European elections, although she’ll be forced to feign outrage at the least).

    She’ll also get more time to judge the mood of the population as the parliamentary debate filters down. It could go one of two ways, either the cries to get on with it grow or the people baulk at the economic consequences. Either way she will have greater confidence in making the decision that annoys the smallest proportion of the population (which is her ultimate aim).

    I suspect if the courts do eventually rule she has to put it before parliament, she will. Going to the country won’t supersede that requirement anyway, There will just be a different set of MPs to put it before, although it might make passage through the Lords smoother if they keep to the conventions and the style of Brexit is set out in the manifesto.

    Things could get interesting if everything is delayed long enough that negotiations span a general election here.

  25. I’m not sure that reducing the population by 0.1% per year requires the euthanasia of everyone over 70.

    Apart from anything else, the increase in longevity will not last forever. There is an upper limit on it (recent reports suggest 115 – with MOE either side – as the ceiling). And I suspect the longevity of current pensioners partly reflects their experience of the war and the immediate post-war years of rationing and improving health.

    It’s hard to see how increasing longevity and an explosion of diabetes and obesity can coexist (and I say that as a Type 2 diabetic with a tummy).

  26. I can see the population of pensioners falling because it becomes easier to retire later due to physical/cognitive enhancements, so the working-age population starts to increase ahead of the retirement-age population.

  27. I’m going to pretend it’s 2013, if that’s alright.

    Ed’s personal ratings aren’t great, but with the Red Dems and a 10% lead, it’s hard to see an immediate way back for Cameron.

  28. Neil A

    To be fair you introduced your 0.1% after you talked about the population of the US being either 350 million or 10 million so I thought you had greater ambitions than that.

    Perhaps we could have a Benefactor who regulates the earth’s population?

  29. Mr Nameless. If only for a 10% Lab lead now. Grim times.

  30. @Mr N, Mike,

    Labour need to be much further ahead at that stage of the electoral cycle..

  31. Mike Pearce

    You are right, times would have to be excruciatingly grim for Corbyn to have a 10% lead.

  32. @Alan,

    My concern is the loss of green space. Once it’s lost, it’s lost (pretty much).

    If we see a slowly reducing population for the next 1,000 years then who knows. Maybe we can go back to the hundreds of millions….

    For me, about 50% less than what we have would be wonderful. No more extinctions, no more climate change, no more hunger, no more overcrowding (assuming that the spare space is reasonably equitably shared – big assumption I know).

  33. Neil A

    The only difficult part is deciding which 50% have to go, eh?

  34. I’m not sure why you think I’d want to do it in one generation.

    All that’s required is below replacement birthrate for a few decades and we’re sorted.

    Having 1.8 children instead of 2.4 children isn’t quite so horrendous as being executed at aged 70…

    I am leading the way by having 0.0 children and having a life expectancy (based on the average of my parents’ age at death) of 67….

  35. Neil A

    I read the “For me” as “within my lifetime”, as after you die anything that happens isn’t really for you.

    Currently the UK has about 1.7 children per woman and has had for about 40 years iirc. Germany and Japan are at about 1.3-1.4. Without migration (as Japan is finding out) provisioning health care and pensions for the elderly will get more and more difficult.

    No immigration, Reduced birth rates, Provision for the elderly: Pick 2 out of 3.

  36. Neil A,
    “My concern is the loss of green space. Once it’s lost, it’s lost (pretty much).”

    Watch some editions of time team, which are repeated endlessly. One thing which becomes clear is that todays ploughed field was yesterdays Roman town. Urbanisation is reversible.

  37. If this thread is about the population levels, then my ten cents. Most of the UK is undeveloped (90%), unless you count modern agriculture, in which case almost all is developed (but green).Virtually none is natural. If we wished we could double the UK population without much loss of open space. Especially if we push more of it north of London, and the midlands is very obviously crying out for development. Scotland too. Housing shortages have been created by parliament and an obsession about conservation which is not justified by the facts. Oh, and nimbyism, because almost all land has someone interested in conserving it because it is theirs or their amenity, and these have been allowed to dominate the discourse.

    This has had a massive distorting effect on the economy, because the biggest purchase most of us make is a house, and unlike all other modern goods they have become more expensive instead of less.

    And this has no doubt contributed to the result, as it feeds into the ‘disafected with society’ anti establishment vote. One currently also tearing the US political scene apart, and making apperances across europe.

  38. The logans run option is looking promising, and it would probably halve the NHS budget. Not to mention pensions.

    Actually theres lots of talk about denying health care to the obese and smokers, on the basis that they have brought it on themselves, we could extend the same principle to old people. Its their own fault for living so long

  39. @Danny

    it really depends what you mean by “undeveloped”.

    If land 100 yards from road or building counts as “undeveloped” then perhaps.

    But available as habitat for wildlife? Much less than 90%.

    The countryside is really quite a cluttered place.

    Do a sweep of Google Earth across southern England sometime.

  40. The Poll which is the subject of this thread notes rising public concern over the economic cost of Brexit. It confirms the allusion I heard before, that Brexit is now the official opposition. The fate of Brexit, arguably the legacy of UKIP, will determine conservative future prospects.

    It seems to me that a call for an election tomorrow would cause a massive improvement in labours figures. I argue this because right now they are the subject of a protest vote against them, not against the government. The US election illustrates voters holding their noses to support Clinton rather than Trump. Also, the labour right would similarly rally around arguing actually Corbyn wasnt as bad as they had been saying for the last 2 years. Whether they could make any real headway might depend on their approach to Brexit.

    The big problem for both parties is they do not know what voters think or will think about Brexit. We know the referendum result, we know the pollsters got it wrong. The margin of victory was small and well inside polling errors in recent important elections. Aside from that, there are obvious signs of rising concern about Brexit, upon which the conservatives have now staked their future.

    They could call a snap election now, which might be highly unpredictable and still resuscitate UKIP if it fell out badly. They could win a whopping majority, proceed with Brexit and then find themselves at the point of leaving the EU with public opinion turned firmly to Remain. There are grounds for arguing they might prefer a small majority right now,with obvious split loyalty for the public to see, and a much more engaged opposition taking some of the flak.

    Many a leaky minister may in fact be loyally testing the water to see how hot it is.

  41. Neil A,
    there was a proper study of this a couple of years ago, 90% undeveloped, mice and all. And half of the 10% is in some way green, such as gardens, parks, rivers, reservoirs… look up UK National Ecosystem Assessment (NEA).

  42. Danny

    Im might seem like the Labour right has been complaining about how bad corbyn is for two years but he’s only been leader for one year

  43. A question that I haven’t seen asked, “who won the referendum?” We all know that brexit won but which political party won the vote? Labour lost as we know, so did the libdems but not as visibly, Ukip must count as the winner except their reason for existing in the eyes of the public has just disappeared. Oddly I think the public feel that the conservatives won the referendum, by getting rid of all the obvious remain people so quickly the conservatives have established themselves as the winners of the EU vote. I think part of their high polling reflects this

  44. BZ

    Links to all the A50 proceedings transcripts from here, which I found, along with some other links that might interest you if you haven’t already seen them, here.

  45. Alan and Neil A
    Can I recommend that you read ‘The Marching Morons’ by Cyril Kornbluth? It was written in about 1950 and vividly describes the problems of an overpopulated world – and a very novel solution.

    Danny
    “…signs of rising concern about Brexit, upon which the conservatives have now staked their future.”

    It’s interesting that Con + UKIP in this poll is 53% – close to the Leave referendum vote. I suspect there’s a large overlap, but I’m too tired to look at the tables.

    CR
    Insightful post about which party won the referendum. Good point.

  46. Cambridgerachel,
    “It might seem like the Labour right has been complaining about how bad corbyn is for two years but he’s only been leader for one year”
    yes, it does. Although I think they were complaining about him for many years before he became leader.

    “which political party won the vote”
    The conservatives won the vote. They ran both the leave and remain campaigns, so they could hardly lose.

    Corbyn was roundly criticised, particularly by his own side, for appearing half hearted about the EU. It happens he is not so far from my view, and i voted remain. Farage is right there are lots of problems with the EU, but they are not so big we should be leaving. Anyway, back to the plot. The fact Corbyn failed to really take a side means he is still fairly neutral in the public’s eyes, and can still step forward and take a stance with considerable room for choice. Like May, until she did choose. But she too is trying to say as little as possible.

    The conservatives are the government, and having won the referendum (either result would have done), they have now glued themselves to the winning side. Except that this was a referendum and the public is fickle. parties stick to absurdities for fear of U turns and looking weak. The public can change its view in an instant.

    Brexit is expected to take 2 years. By that time the economy may well be in disarray. more banks will have opened european branches, inflation will be romping. At that point Corbyn has a winning strategy for the next election. See what the conservatives have done to the nation.

    Or the economy is fine. The conservatives still will not please everyone with Brexit. In fact they will upset all the remainers and half the brexiters who wanted the other sort of brexit. There is nothing corbyn can do about how the economy finally settles. But he can stay uncommitted until the result is clear and then hop on the bus. And there is sure to be something about Brexit to criticise. The thing is to keep options open now. People understimate Corbyn.

  47. Pete B,
    “It’s interesting that Con + UKIP in this poll is 53% – close to the Leave referendum vote. I suspect there’s a large overlap, but I’m too tired to look at the tables.”

    I would suggest its a coincidence. There are a lot of labour leave voters. One big problem for the parties is exactly that their natural voters are split on the issue. Neither party wants to cross half its voters. Hence the conservative stress on ‘the people have spoken (not us)’, and Cobyn’s reticence. The labour right has played its hand very badly and caused much more harm than had they simply accepted Corbyn. He seems to better understand both labour party members and voters.

  48. This is an excellent poll if you believe in Brexit.

    Apart from Soubry, Clarke and a few others, the Tory backbenchers are going to think twice before going against the PM.

    I also wonder how many Labour MPs in the Midlands and the North and wondering whether obstructing Brexit will be akin to playing political Russian Roulette.

  49. Danny
    “He seems to better understand both labour party members and voters.”

    I’d suggest only the former, or Labour (and his) poll ratings would be much higher.

    g’night all.

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