Ipsos MORI have published their monthly political monitor and it shows another towering lead for the Conservatives. Topline voting intentions are CON 47%(+7), LAB 29%(-5), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 6%(-3). The eighteen point Conservative lead is the highest they’ve managed in any poll since 2009, and the highest lead for a party in government since 2002. Usual caveats apply about any poll showing such a large shift in support over a month, but in terms of direction this does echo the ICM and YouGov polls earlier this month that also showed shifts towards the Conservatives. Full details are here.

A quick word about that UKIP score of just 6%. While it is obviously very bad, it’s not the sudden collapse one might assume. For whatever methodological reason, MORI do tend to show significantly worse scores for UKIP than polls from other companies. It is NOT a case of UKIP support being at 11% with ICM and YouGov last week, their MEPs getting into a fist fight and their support collapsing (however tempting such a narrative is!). MORI has been showing them at significantly lower levels of support for several months anyway – 9% last month, 6% in August, 8% in July. Nevertheless, it does appear as if the Tories are beginning to claw back support they’d previously lost to UKIP.


693 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 47, LAB 29, LD 7, UKIP 6”

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  1. Can I swear please

  2. If the Government can continue to avoid making any sort of decision until 2020, they should be a shoo-in at that election.

  3. Hello Antony can you help, my husband really wants to meet Ed Miliband, he is our favourite politician, can you please send me his mobile number, thank you.

  4. ” it does appear as if the Tories are beginning to claw back support they’d previously lost to UKIP.”
    Really?
    CON (+7), LAB (-5), LDEM (+1), UKIP (-3). MoE +/- 3
    You may be right, but I suggest that is based on evidence other than this poll.
    Give UKIP a bit more because this is an IPSOS poll (say no change) and that ‘claw-back’ disappears.
    What were the don’t know/ would not vote figures?

  5. Neil A (cont. from prev. thread)

    I wasn’t really jesting, I was more interpreting things from a “reduce the population as much as possible” position. If two million people moved overseas in the next few years, from your point of view it would be great. If Scotland leaves and attracts skilled workers north of the border, even better for you. Scotland seems to have a different perspective on the immigration thing and feels it has an emigration problem so an independent Scotland would probably have quite divergent policies aimed at encouraging people to move and work in Scotland.

    Chances are, the types of people leaving wouldn’t make it good for the economy and as you point out, funding the state pension commitments might be a bit tricky but I’m sure those who remain could sort it out.

    Obviously I personally would see things as very negative and would be one of those people who was successfully convinced to leave the country. Not really a win-win but more of an “draw-win”. I accept that no matter what happens, I can’t benefit from Brexit, I’m just looking to make sure I don’t lose.

    If you win and I don’t lose, that’s a reasonable result for the both of us.

  6. Given the turmoil in the labour party it is quite astonishing that it remains at even 29%, what is likely to be more interesting is where this 29% is; if it is all piled up in some seats the outcome could be similar to 1983 if it is more evenly spread it could prove disastrous depending on the strength if other parties, what is also interesting is what the impact on Tory seats this level of support is likely to be? Just did a quick calculation on the advanced Swingometer, shows the Tories on nearly 400 seats and Labour on less than 190

  7. If May’s strategy was to squeeze UKIP by moving the Tories to the right, without alienating existing Tory support, then it seems to be working – for now, anyway.

    Also awful for Labour, of course. Is that every pollster with Labour at or below 30%? However accurate you think the “Labour needs to be more ahead now!” claims were back in 2011, they definitely apply now. This is a time that Labour need to be laying the foundations for 2016.

    Dave,

    I think that the point is that this poll is part of a wider trend. AW isn’t just looking at these figures in isolation, but they contribute towards a broader picture.

  8. Would Heseltine care to comment on these figures?

  9. Ipsos-Mori: Con 47%, Lab 29%, LD 7%, UKIP 6%.

    UKIP’s collapse is benefitting the Conservatives.

    “If I was Mrs May, I’d call a general election in the New Year before triggering Article 50 to a) get a mandate for herself and b) get an amenable Parliament to make negotiating easier.” Candy (from previous thread)

    Maybe, but an almost-certain 3.5 more years in office is not to be sneezed at either – after the first Conservative majority win since 1992. And won’t the government want to make sure of getting the new electoral boundaries in place this time, rather than starting all over again?

    Finally a large majority can be a bit of a mixed blessing as John Biffin (I think) is supposed to have said, losing favour with Margaret Thatcher as a result.

  10. @Alan

    You have to remember that my issues are primarily environmental.

    Would I want 2m people to move from England to Scotland, resulting in an area of Scottish countryside the size of Birmingham disappearing under concrete? No of course not. I love Scotland’s environment just as much as I love England’s (in some ways more so).

    However, if Scotland had a falling population, and empty homes, would I prefer that people moved to fill those homes rather than creating a demand for new ones elsewhere? Yes indeed.

    So on the question of jobs moving out of the UK, and on your own employment, it really depends on the destination.

    Countries in the former Communist bloc have seen precipitous declines in population, as have countries like Greece. If you were to move to a job in Lithuania, I would consider that an unalloyed good for everyone (although I’d miss you, of course, but we’d still have UKPR..)

    Were you to buy one of the four remaining plots of green space around Amsterdam and have a modernist concrete house built on it so you could carry on your Monkey Nut Commodity trading (or whatever) then of course that wouldn’t really help me with my anxiety about the environment!

    My overall perspective is that humanity as a unit has vastly overgrown what was the limit of harmonious occupation of this planet. All countries should, in my opinion, be looking at ways to keep their populations under control. Those with shortages of people can be forgiven for trying to nudge up their birthrate to somewhere near 2 per woman, so that they can cope with the changes. Those with expanding populations should try and manage that internally rather than expecting to export labour indefinitely.

    Migration in itself is fine. We are all one people and I don’t particularly differentiate between people from different origins. But mass migration is harmful to humanity and the planet. It may bring short-term economic and power-balance advantages to the countries that receive the migrants, but that’s not really my focus.

    In my world view, America would be as good a country with 10 million native Americans living in a patchwork of small nations, preserving their traditions and languages and treating the vast tracts of nature with respect as it is with 350 million people from all over the world making gazillions of dollars and dominating the world politically, economically and culturally.

    That isn’t to say that I think there’s anything wrong with a Frenchman living in Illinois, that Native Americans have better genes than the Chinese or that Cherokee is a better language than English.

  11. It looks as though the poll has supplementary responses suggesting that the public are pessimistic on the economy and give TM herself at best a mediocre personal rating.

    As for the continuing success of keeping the Tory coalition together, the cliché about it being “the economy stoopid” springs to mind.

    The 47% just looks a bit frothy to me.

  12. @Hawthorn

    You’re probably right, but even 40% at the next GE would be a historic achievement. Many people thought that a Tory vote in the 40s was a near impossibility after 1997 and what followed.

  13. I’d add that there’s something very much “least worst” about polling at the moment. I don’t see May as particular popular, the Tories as particularly trusted or the electorate particularly set in their views.

    I just think that, a bit like the US election, the choices on offer look extremely unpalatable. Unless that changes, May could be reelected with a massive “hold your nose” vote.

    Corbyn doesn’t seem to making much progress, despite a slicker presentation and decent performances at the dispatch box. Farron doesn’t come across as a serious politician (and leads a party with a long way to go to rebuild itself). UKIP could have made something of themselves under James or Woolf, but have probably just shot themselves in both feet and one hand.

  14. The only bright spot in this dismal poll for Labour appears in the breakdown for Scotland – Lab 24% Con 22%.

    Re-May calling an election. On poll figures like this Corbyn would be failing in his duty to the party he leads if he were to meekly agree to that. He would have no real alternative but to use the terms of the FTA to maximum advantage.

  15. WB: I think the reason Labour support is holding at 29% is because the party has incredibly strong support among ethnic minorities, young people, and people associated with universities/colleges. As they lose support amongst pretty much every other type of voter, they continue to be strong with those categories.

  16. The same problem still exists in calling an election. It would mean the Government having to set out exactly what they want out of Brexit; something they have repeated said would be unwise and which is likely to p off a large proportion of their support.

    It could even turn into Brexit referendum II.

  17. Or rather Brexit Referendum III if you count 1976.

  18. When were the Tories last at 47%, in a credible national poll. Last I can see is 14/09 (also IPSOS/Mori) – the day before Lehman went bust.

  19. I just think the absolute floor of Labour support is around 25% or more. It would take a revolution of Scottish proportions for that to change. For a while it looked like UKIP could threaten that in places, but one has to assume that threat has subsided. The prospect of a pincer movement in Labour areas of disaffected social conservatives deserting them, and the small Conservative votes switching tactically, has receded.

    What we do know is that FPTP is very unkind to Labour at levels of support in the low 30s and below. And if the boundaries go through that will be even more the case.

    I expect on a score like this one, the Tories would be reaching back towards having wide support across the UK (even in Scotland, although less so).

  20. @Alister1948

    I think it is important for Mrs May to get a mandate for her version of Brexit before she triggers Article 50. That way people can’t complain they weren’t asked. And if we get a double confirmation of Brexit, first on a referendum basis and then on a FPTP basis, people can’t pretend the public doesn’t know what it wants.

    Also, she needs to avoid doing a Gordon Brown and not going to the country when she’s in her honeymoon stage. It was a massive mistake on his part.

  21. 29% probably overstates Labour support. At this point in the last parliament they were in the high 30s and fell back to around 30% in 2015. Once the press assault on Corbyn gets going in the next election campaign I expect them to struggle to reach 25%.

  22. @Candy
    ‘she needs to avoid doing a Gordon Brown and not going to the country when she’s in her honeymoon stage. It was a massive mistake on his part.’

    But there is no reason for Corbyn to help her take advantage of any honeymoon.
    Ralistically the earliest likely date for an election is probably May 4th next year. Even then Corbyn should look at available polling evidence before agreeing to it.

  23. @the Monk

    You don’t think 47% overstates Tory support?

  24. @Hawthorn

    All the parties have set out their red lines on Brexit. Conservatives want to limit free movement, stop our budget contribution and stop the ECJ having primacy over our own courts. Corbyn’s Labour wants to keep free movement but doesn’t want to be part of the single market. And the LibDems want to cancel Brexit.

    I would have thought that was a very clear choice.

    If the Conservtives are returned then it is clear that voters are saying yes, we meant it when we voted to Leave. And the Leave vote will have been delivered under two different electoral systems – the referendum, where every person’s vote was equal, and the FPTP where it is decided by constituency. And if (!) she manages to get 47% she’d have done it under a PR/popular vote system too. Can’t say fairer than that, and it should put an end to the damaging efforts to ignore democracy.

  25. Hawthorn

    But labour hasn’t got a clear brexit policy either. Interesting that the Labour leadership seemed to be backing a eurosceptic as leader of the bexit committee. Although there were lots of other issues at play I’m sure

  26. Good Evening All.
    Corbyn will not worry about the Polls, I think, as he genuinely believes in the MSM conspiracy myth.

    I think May will go in May 2017, and that Labour will win far fewer than the 190 seats, which WB mentioned in this thread.

    Then when the new boundaries take more seats from Lab, the 2022 GE will be worse for Labour and better for May and then Boris.

    The LIb Dem figure of seven% seems high, though, IMO

  27. @Candy/Hawthorn,

    I sort of agree with both of you.

    May won’t try and call an election unless there’s a clear case for doing so (other than partisan advantage).

    I think she’d be perfectly happy to cruise on till 2020, firefighting the fallout from Brexit and trying to make her mark.

    But if she’s backed into a corner over the Brexit issue, the temptation to go back to the people may be irresistible.

    Conventional wisdom would be that a Labour leading trailing by double figures would avoid a GE like the plague. However, Corbyn isn’t very conventional. He’s already declared that he would support an immediate GE. It’s suspected that he doesn’t really care about winning it as much as he cares about changing the Labour party forever.

    If he were challenged to dissolve parliament, he might just tell his MPs to do it. A lot of them would probably not vote for it, but it doesn’t need them all.

    Even if he does a U turn (and suffers whatever damage that in itself might bring) then May might still calculate that the downsides of getting herself sacked and putting Corbyn in number ten for a couple of months might be worth it. Apart from anything else, the automated media monitoring would probably respond to “Corbyn is the new PM” headlines by bringing the pound to parity with the peso.. That should give the electorate a hint in the following GE when Corbyn can’t win a confidence vote.

  28. Chrislane
    If the polls still show a Tory lead above 10% Corbyn would be a fool to facilitate such an election.

  29. @GRHAM

    Probably not. In the end the percentages have to add up to 100. If Labour do finish up in the low to mid 20s and UKIP continue to implode, even a strongish Lib Dem revival leaves the Tories up there.

  30. @CL1945 – “Corbyn will not worry about the Polls, I think, as he genuinely believes in the MSM conspiracy myth.”

    Tend to agree with you.

    After nearly a month of relative quiet from the Labour rebels, further poll setbacks for TIGMOO.

    Corbyn was, is and remains dire, and Labour are heading for the history books.

  31. @Alec

    He certainly feels like the wrong man in the wrong place at the wrong time.

  32. Neil A
    A new PM will have a honeymoon – as we are experiencing at the moment. Corbyn would also have the advantage that May has not enjoyed of being able to blame problems on his predecessors – like Cameron in May 2010etc. For that reason I think it unlikely that May would wish to risk having him installed at No 10 as a caretaker PM.

  33. Hawthorn

    “The 47% just looks a bit frothy to me.

    if that’s frothy I suspect the Tory would be happy with a frothy, GE which would give 134 seat majority (old boundaries) or 143 majority (new boundaries).

  34. Neil A

    I happen to think I’m as deserving of a house as those who have already got them and it’s not reasonable for me to be asked to adhere to a list of places acceptable for me to live, drawn up by people who already have their patch of land.

    If Brexit means I move to that nice green area of Amsterdam, that’s what Brexit means, you may have hoped that it meant I moved to Lithuania but I regard that as quite a remote outcome! That green spot around Amsterdam sounds quite tempting though.

    If the planet is full, surely part of the problem lies with the massively increased life expectancy. Should we cut health services for the over 70s (or lower, I don’t know how overpopulated you think we are) to encourage them to walk a little faster and make room? Perhaps we could take a few cues from Logan’s Run as that would be very effective at managing population size.

    Should we instead focus on the other end of life and limit couples to only one child?

    I happen to think that technology has allowed the sustainable population of the planet to grow and will continue to do so. As long as living standards in general increase for everyone life will improve for the lives of everyone.

  35. Hawthorn

    “TM herself at best a mediocre personal rating.”

    Really?

    May 48% satisfied and a rating of +16

    Corbyn 31% satisfied, rating – 24

    Fallon 22% satisfied, rating – 12.

  36. @The Monk
    ‘Probably not. In the end the percentages have to add up to 100. If Labour do finish up in the low to mid 20s and UKIP continue to implode, even a strongish Lib Dem revival leaves the Tories up there.’

    A lot of wishful thinking there I think – a very unlikely combination of circumstances!

  37. Yet more evidence that Corbyn is a hopeless loser. Hopefully he will resign by 2019 and we can get a proper Labour leader like Smith.
    I’m not optimistic though; there are now so many far leftists in the Labour party that a departure by Corbyn will only lead to another hard left candidate stepping in.

  38. @BILL PATRICK

    “If May’s strategy was to squeeze UKIP by moving the Tories to the right, without alienating existing Tory support, then it seems to be working – for now, anyway.”

    It works because few Tories will move left to the Lib-Dems. Unlike Labour, the Conservatives have always been reluctant to split or have groups breaking away. They instead tend to stay and moan.

  39. May is more popular than Dave. I always thought that. She seems Middle Class and authentic, as opposed to a posh boy who seemed fake.

  40. @Alan

    And that’s why we’ll never agree. We approach the issues of the day from completely different directions.

    The planet could probably support ten times the human population it has now, with massively high housing density and hydroponic installations in towers, underground and in the oceans.

    Of course it would have virtually no wildlife, and nowhere you could go to experience true solitude. Staples of today like animal flesh and fish would be a rare treat for the rich. The climate would be difficult, resources scarce and social problems widespread.

    My point is that more people doesn’t not equal better. The objective is not to maximize the total amount of human fulfillment on the planet, but to maximize the amount of human fulfillment enjoyed by the average individual.

    One of the little-discussed consequences of the Black Death was the significant improvements it brought to the living and working conditions of the people that it didn’t kill.

    I am not advocating anything so drastic or horrific, but a gradual 0.1% a year decline in humanity’s numbers would be great.

  41. @Neil A

    I think Corbyn would consent to a general election, he has said so. And the whole reason Labour MPs triggered that leadership contest is that they were expecting a general election too.

    Having general elections is how we traditionally resolve disputes. With something as huge as Brexit, I think Mrs May needs to get a separate mandate for her version – sort of saying to the voters “are you sure?”

    As for those arguing against another election, and at the same time arguing that the referendum was not valid either because “only” 52% voted Leave on a 72% turnout, well if they are politicians they’re in the wrong business. Everything has to be put to the voters in the end. Ours is not the kind of system where you can ignore voters because JP Morgan are unhappy, especially as JP Morgan arn’t even British.

  42. Graham

    “The only bright spot in this dismal poll for Labour appears in the breakdown for Scotland – Lab 24% Con 22%.”

    I wouldn’t read too much into a sample of 58 people – where half have an SNP VI – and the Unionist vote divides Con 13 : Lab 14 : LD 2. :-)

  43. Alan

    I think the single biggest problem facing the planet is population growth. The World’s population has doubled in the last 40 years.

    I agree with you part of the problem is the growth in life expectancy and although you may have been joking I think your third paragraph has traction. I can see it happening at some time in the future the way things are going. As you probably know I am well past 70.

  44. Tancred
    ‘It works because few Tories will move left to the Lib-Dems. Unlike Labour, the Conservatives have always been reluctant to split or have groups breaking away. They instead tend to stay and moan.’

    A lot of those voting Tory in the 1980s and early 90s had ceased to do so by 1997 and 2001. Many clearly did vote LibDem in those elections!

  45. OLDNAT

    I agree with you – but it somewhat undermines the confident assertions of some that the Tories are now in second place in Scotland!

  46. THE OTHER HOWARD

    That is worse than Gordon Brown during his honeymoon.

  47. In my view the poll greatly underestimates Lib-Dem support, which is soft but rises considerably with tactical voting. UKIP is spiralling downwards which is not surprising. As for the Conservatives, the figure of 47% is high but let’s not forget that Thatcher at her height was polling 50% or so. I still don’t think May will go to the country until 2020 – she wants to get Brexit over and done with.

  48. P.S. If there is a general election, Lab should make sure that Ed Balls is a candidate somewhere.

    The Daily Mail crowd have taken to him and are devotedly voting for him no matter how awful his routine is (they’ve taken a minor dislike to his dance partner and blame her for all his problems because they think she is too busy showcasing herself!)

    Plus he has an excellent temperament: If Cameron had been told in public that his dancing was a cross between a demented traffic warden and a spin dryer, he’d have gone bright red and the eyes would have gone squinty and angry. Balls just takes it on the chin with good humour.

    And of course there are his credentials in stopping the UK from joining the euro. I can’t understand why Lab chose Miliband over him in 2010. But they have the chance for a do-over if they can get Balls back into Parliament.

  49. Neil A @Alan

    I’m surprised that neither of you have introduced Malthus into your discussion.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus#An_Essay_on_the_Principle_of_Population

    This debate has, of course, been going on since, at least, 1798 when his essay was published.

  50. HAWTHORN

    I’m happy to let others here judge who is right. I think the figures speak for themselves.

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