Ipsos MORI have published their monthly political monitor and it shows another towering lead for the Conservatives. Topline voting intentions are CON 47%(+7), LAB 29%(-5), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 6%(-3). The eighteen point Conservative lead is the highest they’ve managed in any poll since 2009, and the highest lead for a party in government since 2002. Usual caveats apply about any poll showing such a large shift in support over a month, but in terms of direction this does echo the ICM and YouGov polls earlier this month that also showed shifts towards the Conservatives. Full details are here.

A quick word about that UKIP score of just 6%. While it is obviously very bad, it’s not the sudden collapse one might assume. For whatever methodological reason, MORI do tend to show significantly worse scores for UKIP than polls from other companies. It is NOT a case of UKIP support being at 11% with ICM and YouGov last week, their MEPs getting into a fist fight and their support collapsing (however tempting such a narrative is!). MORI has been showing them at significantly lower levels of support for several months anyway – 9% last month, 6% in August, 8% in July. Nevertheless, it does appear as if the Tories are beginning to claw back support they’d previously lost to UKIP.


693 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 47, LAB 29, LD 7, UKIP 6”

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  1. @Colin – that’s quite an interesting analysis, although Civitas are fairly right wing, so I would want some additional confirmation that they are making reasonable assumptions before assuming this to be completely true.

    However, it does make sense, in that we have a trade deficit with the EU. In that regard, one response to these figures would be ‘so what’. If you export more, you would pay more tariffs. The key is what proportion of your output is traded between the EU and UK, so what proportion is affected by tariffs. For the UK, on that score, we lose, as although we would pay less in tariffs than the EU overall, more of ur exports would be affected so it could hurt us a lot more.

    The other point to consider is what the effect of those tariffs would be. If there are going to be billions of pounds of tariffs on EU imports, that isn’t somehow a good thing for the UK. It just means more inflation for UK consumers. Yes, it would give some boost for import replacement by home production, if we had the capacity to do this, and if we didn’t need to import raw materials and components to do so, but prices would still rise.

  2. Looks like our Belgiums will be Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia & Malta :-)

  3. ………….and Finland !

  4. ……………..But they will be doing us a favour by kicking us out of the Single Market on the face of it.

    So lets hear it for the little countries :-)

  5. oldnat,
    the actual number of UKIP members is pretty small. The results may be interesting regarding what they think of themselves, but in numbers of actual votes they represent even fewer than the other parties. Having said that, I’d suggest the witney result suggests they are delusional. On the basis of their thinking they should have done as well or even better than previously, but their vote collapsed.

    The breakdown of membership by previous allegience is interesting and confirms the stereotype, but again, how true is it of UKIP voters. I find it hard to get my head around the concept that a group of ex-tories from the right of that party believe they have something to offer to natural labour voters. I understand right inclined working class may feel they have nothing in common with the Eton rich elite running the tory party, but then what exactly is the view UKIP are pushing which will attract them? Foreigners out, the traditional nationalist brand?

    It occured to wonder why May announced support for Grammar schools just now, but I hear it was in fact a UKIP policy. So is that an attempt to further separate UKIP from any distinct policy, thus leading to their rapid demise, as compared to the UKIP plan for the party to continue to develop a distinct brand?

    Labour is plainly in disarray. There is no party in the UK with the pull of the SNP. SNP are an anti westminster party, but labour have wholly failed to differentiate themselves from Tories. Tories still are the home of the traditional right and represent continuity of wealth for those who have it. I don’t see how labour appeals to the opposite end of the spectrum.

    libs recently slaughtered themselves on the altar of becoming more like the tories, to attract voters. It did not work.

    UKIP have posted themselves as an anti EU party, yet the reality I see is that most of the issues which worry them originate from Westminster, not Brussels. Brussels is an unusually large civil service which takes orders from its members. Which in a way makes UKIP the anti westminster party within the UK. I think a lot of supporters saw them this way too. Labour’s recent squabbles with its MPs trying to make the party more like the tories can only have alienated the anti establishment faction, as we see from Corbyn’s success.

    Pete,
    I am afraid you are stuck discussing Brexit for the forseeable future. It will affect every poll and every party is hedging its bets on this because it changes everything for the near future.

    I dont know what happened to the UKIP vote at witney. By definition its voters are driven by a single issue. logically they went conservative, but potentially some of its support could have gone directly lib or returned to labour. That strikes me as an interesting question.

  6. @Alec

    Tariffs are generally a bad thing for business, of course. But am I right in thinking that they are paid direct to the government of the importing nation?

    Even allowing for a good degree of “waste” in terms of collection costs, wouldn’t it be possible for the UK government to effectively defray the entire cost of export tariffs on UK exports using the money paid to it by foreign exporters?

    I have never been a protectionist and still am not, but that doesn’t mean that I reject any positives to protectionism, simply that I believe that overall it’s a bad thing.

  7. Colin,
    what bothers me with tariffs againts the EU, is what extent they could be enforced if we do not have matching tariffs against the rest of the world. Surely EU goods would simply leak in via third parties? This all implies to me the Uk would have to have a high tariff policy against everyone. Which is precisely the opposite of the official plan to get us out of the Brexit mess.

  8. Andrew111
    Any thanks for your additional thoughts on Waterloo. We certainly do agree about Wellington and yes it was a “close run thing”. I have often given thought myself to what would have happened if napoleon had won.
    Peter Cairns (SNP)
    Liked your 9.39 post re Jutland. We certainly did have a lot to learn post Jutland and generally failed to do so. However I would argue that the offensive spirit shown by Nelson et al is as valid today as ever it was.

    CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    I think it will do Ed Balls no harm at all appearing in “Strictly”. I think he is being seen as a “good sport”.

    BARBAZENZERO

    Thanks for reminding me of those episodes, really very funny.

    COLIN

    Yes the Civitas report is interesting but not really a surprise. It is however another knock for those who think the Government have no bargaining power when it comes to discussing Brexit with the EU.

  9. OLD NAT
    ‘”“Who speaks for the 38% of scots who want Brexit?”
    Increasingly, that would be Ruth Davidson and SCon. Quite possibly also Kez Dugdale and SLab.’

    I doubt the latter. Last September’s SLab Conference passed the resolution:That Conference rejects the Government’s proposed imposition of a restriction on the number of asylum seekers received in the U.K. to 20,000 during this Parliament as a denial of their rights of refuge from violence, oppression and poverty and an abuse of the traditional right of our citizens and humanitarian organisatons to provide asylum to those in need; calls on the National Executive to demand that the UK join in and support the EU Agenda Programme on Migration; and for that purpose undertakes, through the Labour Party Task Force on Refugees, the research and preparation needed for a planned programme of refuge, welfare and opportunity to reside and contribute to Scottish society to all asylum seekers, whether in camps around Syria or in transit in Europe or in Northern Africa.”
    Questioned at the Brexit campaign meetings in Edinburgh specifically on economic migrants she said that SLab would under her leadership put no restrictions on immigration to meet labour requirements I.e. SLab is at one with the UK party in following the migration policy within the Single Market that Corbyn and McDonald and Diane Abbott have set out.

  10. The Indy and others are reporting a ‘Stop Brexit’ party would beat Labour and Ukip in a general election, poll shows. The poll is said to be a YouGov one, but none of the reports I’ve seen state who commissioned it. Nothing obvious on the YouGov website yet, either.

    Let’s hope there’ll be a new thread on it here soon.

  11. The thing about Ed Balls is he has a personality and a sense of humour. Unlike the present Labour leader.

  12. Of course I’m one of the ‘crazies’. What do I know.

  13. I once had a lecturer on defence studies who had actually been advising the Government when Hesiltine was Defence Secretary.

    He had actually been at a meeting with him and Civil Servants where it was stated openly that the goal of UK policy was;

    “To sell more weapons than the French!”

    Peter

  14. This is interesting as it in part focuses on the impact Sterlings fall could have on the defence procurement budget!

    http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefing_papers_and_reports/brexit_whither_uk_defence_and_foreign_policy

    Peter.

  15. BARBAZENZERO

    You missed out ………..and be beaten soundly by the Tories.

  16. @BARBAZENZERO

    I would say that 25% of the population are hard line brexiteers and another 25% hard line remainers (like me). The other 50% I would describe as ‘floaters’, so ready to be persuaded by either side.
    This is why I think that a ‘soft’ brexit has the biggest chance of getting most public support. It baffles me as to why the PM is playing this hard line card when only a minority support this path.

  17. THE OTHER HOWARD
    You missed out ………..and be beaten soundly by the Tories.

    Could you try that again in English?

    Upon what have I missed out? Are the Cons bringing back corporal punishment?

  18. TOH

    I agree.

    On the face of it the TReasury could rebate all EU import tariffs for UK Exporters ( not just Nissan) & still be nearly £8bn pa to the good. In addition to saving net contributions to EU Budgets.

    UK Imports would be more expensive, but given our dire Trade Deficit , perhaps a reduction would not be a bad thing.

    Anyway , I think the Civitas work is hugely important,

  19. TANCRED

    You may well be correct but I’d really like to see the details of the apparently E&W only YouGov poll before commenting upon it.

  20. ON & BZ

    Thanks for the links and info. Very informative and amusing respectively.

  21. BARBAZENZERO

    You must be having a difficult morning, this should help:-

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stop-brexit-election-vote-new-party-beat-labour-ukip-polls-eu-referendum-a7376306.html

    The same poll shows the Tories comfortably ahead of “Stop Brexit Party”

  22. I watched Suzanne Evans on Marr yesterday and have been pondering her remarks.

    She spoke very fluently and quite impressively about the unelectable ‘toxicity’ of UKIP. And of the need for a ‘common sense’ party of the centre. Perhaps where Carswell resides.

    I rather wonder whether her comments don’t suggest that there is little point in securing the leadership and inheriting a squabbling, ‘toxic’ party in existential crisis.

    Is it worth re-branding UKIP?

  23. COLIN

    Yes, The Civitas Report does seem to be a well researched and important piece of work.

    However as I posted to Somerjohn the other day all these reports on both sides of the Brexit argument, however well researched are not “hard facts” telling us what will happen. We won’t actually know the truth of it all until we have exited the EU and have had a number of years, I think 10-20, outside the EU. We will then be able to compare and contrast how our economy and EU economies have performed.

  24. Val. No one called you crazy. The comment was referring to the actions of the plp and nec to try to unseat the elected leader by foul unconstitutional means.

    I don’t recognize your comment that JC has no personality or humour. Angela eagle, who must know him well is saying it was personality not policy that won it for JC.

    I am sad you left the LP.

  25. THE OTHER HOWARD

    That’s the raw version of the link I provided!

    It’s the full poll I am interested in. especially the questions asked.

  26. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    “They also all introduced heavily armoured desks.”

    I could do with one of these at work! :-)

  27. BARBAZENZERO

    If you get it please let me know as I am like you rather interested in the detail. In fact that applies to all polls the detail is more interesting than the headlines. I wish you luck i have been unable to find it other than headlines.

  28. @MILLIE

    “She spoke very fluently and quite impressively about the unelectable ‘toxicity’ of UKIP. And of the need for a ‘common sense’ party of the centre. Perhaps where Carswell resides.”

    I wouldn’t say UKIP is ‘toxic’ like, for instance, the BNP. It’s simply wrong on virtually everything.

  29. Lots of people who were in the BNP are now in ukip.

  30. Mark W
    JC doesn’t have a personality. He is the subject of a ‘personality’ cult whereby his followers attribute qualities to him based on their own views and preferences.
    To return to the topic of this thread, the poll gives the Tories an 18% lead over Labour. They are unelectable under Corbyn.
    Foul doings by the PLP? An enquiry has found Angela Eagle was subjected to a torrent of homophobic and misogynist abuse and had a brick thrown through her office window.
    Nuff said.

  31. Colin,

    “On the face of it the TReasury could rebate all EU import tariffs for UK Exporters ( not just Nissan) & still be nearly £8bn pa to the good!”

    Tosh…

    The Treasury would be only be £8bn to the good if the EU countries gave it £8bn….

    If it paid the £5bn tariff cost it would need to find the £5bn from public spending.

    Then there is the little matter of whether the EU would see that as a breach of GAT rules and an unfair Government subsidy for exports and introduce it’s own tariffs to compensate.

    We’ve been through this before and covered it.

    That £5bn tariff cost is a bigger share of our GDP than the £13bn is of the EU’s.

    If it leads to export substitution, just as we would displace German goods with British ones, the Germans would compensate more than enough by selling more goods to the French, Italians, and Spanish at the expense of British ones.

    If Mercs get more expensive here we will buy more Jags.

    If Jags get more expensive in the Euro Zone, the French, Spanish, Portuguese, Belgians, Dutch, Italians, Greeks, and Poles will buy more Mercs!

    Peter.

  32. PETER

    Don’t Tarrif revenues go to the the State of the importing companies country??

    Its nothing to do with the EU is it?

    Have you read the Civitas numbers?

  33. Peter Cairns

    Wouldn’t the public object to our government paying the EU money, whether it’s a membership fee or a tariff fee, that 350m a week belongs to the NHS!

  34. COLIN

    Peter obviously hasn’t read the Civitas numbers, nor has Alan. Doing just what they are always accusing us of doing.

  35. TOH

    I think yoiu must be right. The Civitas numbers assume no deal with EU & default to WTO rules-thats how the author was able to apply such precise tariff rates to every category of trade.

    Anyway-I assume the Treasury had already done this work for Davis…………..or perhaps not given our Civil Service ?

  36. new thread

  37. Mark W
    “Lots of people who were in the BNP are now in ukip.”

    UKIP has a policy that no-one who has ever been a member of the BNP, National Front and various others is allowed to join UKIP. Some UKIP voters may have previously been in those parties though.

  38. Pete b, yes they did that to deflect from the reality somewhat.

    Val, well, I can’t engage with that. Still sorry you felt you had to leave. My bf goes to CLP meetings and business goes on, as it appears to in most. I just don’t see all this bad feeling.

    Many in the plp are pulling together now. Healing will take time.

  39. Val, foul doings , I mean the attempts to unseat the leader bypassing lab democracy.

    Perhaps you were being obtuse?

  40. Was Brexit an anti immigration vote?. Among other things, yes it was.

  41. the second referendum of tony blair should bot fall into the binary question:

    1. do you favour unlimited immigration into the uk?

    2 do you favour a federal europe?

    3.do you favour UK joining the Euro?

    4. do you favour the creation of a European army

    hOW MUC.

  42. sorry last reply went early-

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