ICM’s latest poll from the Guardian is out, with topline figures of CON 43%(+2), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 11%(-3), GRN 6%(+2) – changes are from ICM’s last poll, conducted for the Sun on Sunday in mid-September.

The seventeen point Conservative lead is the largest that ICM have shown in any poll since October 2009 (the Guardian cites it as the largest since 2008, but I think that’s because they are looking at the ICM/Guardian series of polls – the 2009 poll was one for the News of the World).

The size of the lead is likely flattered by the timing – it was conducted over the weekend, so the Conservatives could have expected some sort of boost from Theresa May’s first conference as leader. It’s also worth noting that ICM do tend to produce some of the most pro-Conservative voting intention figures – they have adopted a substantial number of changes since the polling errors of 2015 (switching to online, weighting by political knowledge, reallocating don’t knows differently and modelling turnout based on age and social class) which tend to produce the most pro-Conservative figures. That’s not to say they are wrong – in 2015 all the pollsters understated the Tory lead, so it’s very likely that in correcting those errors, changes will me made that produce more Conservative figures. We won’t know for sure until 2020 whether pollsters have gone too far in those corrections or not far enough.

In this case, even before the turnout weighting ICM would have been showing a very robust 14 point Conservative lead (and the reallocation of don’t knows actually helped Labour). Whatever you did with this data would have produced a huge great Tory lead – it’s the combination of a new Prime Minister, a Conservative conference boost, and a distracted opposition. Full tabs are here.


610 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 43, LAB 26, LD 8, UKIP 11, GRN 6”

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  1. Candy

    “Famous victory” you say. You must have lived a very sheltered life if that’s what you think.

  2. @Alec

    Unilever haven’t come out of this well at all. A lot of resentment has been stirred towards them and their brands, which will affect them going forward.

    And who said anything about British bananas? If you read back, I said that consumers will substitute expensive European goods with goods from “whoever can provide it cheaper, from wherever in the world.”

    I suspect you skipped that part because you want to characterise Brexiteers as little Englanders and are desperate to pretend Unilever weren’t humiliated by today’s events, given your previous position where you argued they’d win… But you got it wrong.

    The voters are in a bolshy mood, and Europeans are now The Enemy. Any European manufacturer who tries to raise prices will get the same treatment Unilever did today – people actively looking to stop buying their products and to substitute other goods.

    You have consistently misjudged how people would react to Brexit. You assumed a recession after the vote because you assumed people would be scared and not spend. Well remainers cowered under the bedclothes, but brexiteers didn’t. You assumed that consumers would meekly accept price gouging, but they didn’t. A whole boycott movement spouted up overnight (with people adding other reasons to the mix, such as Unilever’s animal testing, poor treatment of staff in developing countries etc). They’re not going to bounce back from this, their brands are going to struggle.

    This whole episode should be a warning to manufacturers that consumers arn’t behaving the way they did before the referendum. New factors are in play. Are you a remainer business or are you a leaver, are you a friend or are you an enemy. All those things afre now more important than brands.

  3. Carfrew

    You touched on something very interesting, that a lot of Euro denominated financial services is done in london. I remember years ago Cameron going to Europe to fight to keep that trade in the UK, I don’t remember the details but I do remember that our friends on the continent were very keen to have euro denominated financial trade close to home where they could see it and regulate it, some guff about monetary sovereignty. As I recall Cameron won the day probably by threatening a referendum.

    Its a really good reason for the eurozone countries to adopt a hard line on financial services

  4. @Alec

    Most Brits are connected to a gas network. Are the domestic heating oil users in a leaver area or a remainer area? If they are in a remainer area, I expect their fellow remainers took the cringing handwringing attitude that nothing could be done. That’s your attitude, right? Have you bothered to look into substitutes or get connected to the grid, or are you doing the classic remainer thing?

  5. @.Candy .and Europeans are now the enemy…maybe to you dear but not to many of us.

  6. CANDY, so we can expect the people to rise up when their fuel, gas and electric goes up then?

  7. Alec
    (addressed to Candy)
    “…but you are so daft you don’t even realise that.”

    A bit ad feminem?

    Candy
    “This whole episode should be a warning to manufacturers that consumers arn’t (sic) behaving the way they did before the referendum. New factors are in play. ”

    I agree, but one problem is that consumers don’t always know the company behind the brand. I didn’t realise until this spat that Unilever made Marmite for instance. On the banana thing, obviously we will now buy them from West Indian ex-colonies, as we used to.

  8. Candy
    You seem to be being picked on, and your arguments dismissed. It seems to me that you make some good points, even if there are some nit-picking objections. It is certainly true that consumer power is an important factor, and if as you suggest it is moving strongly away from EU firms, it will be a game-changer. I’m not sure that it’s quite happening yet, but who knows? Even a 10% drop in sales of Marmite for instance might make Unilever think again – after all, no-one else buys it!

  9. @Carfew,

    As you asked so nicely, I’ll do a very quick response to the post of Somerjohn you referenced.

    On whether I am only interested in net migration (rather than gross migration as put forward by CR)

    – Yes that’s right. It wouldn’t especially bother me if the inward migration was balanced by massive outward migration. Had the Brits developed a taste for Eastern European sunshine in the naughties the way they developed a taste for Southern European sunshine in the eighties, I’d be very relaxed and would never have voted to Leave. Remember, I’m a son of an immigrant, I am an instinctive pro-European and I initially supported both Eastward expansion and the free movement of people.
    Someone like Neil A whose sole motive in wishing to control immigration is to reduce population pressure on the countryside (if I’ve understood correctly) must only be interested in the numbers, i.e. net migration.

    On the suggestion that Brexit may increase population by reversing the emigration of Brits. Yes there may be some reduction in the numbers moving abroad, and yes there may be an increase in those returning. But the idea that the numbers would balance out or even exceed the effects of restricting migration into the UK is innumerate. People are still trapped in the past, thinking that huge numbers of Brits are still moving to Spain etc. The truth is that the number of registered Brits in Spain has actually fallen, not grown. There are still a lot more Brits in Spain than there are Spaniards in Britain, but it is a declining trend, and the demographics of the Brits in Spain suggests to me that the decline will steepen.

    I would just add that in many cases it would be a good thing if Brits returned to the UK. In some cases so I am my colleagues can put them in prison, and in other cases so that they cease to be isolated and socially excluded, having inadvertently condemned themselves to lives in Spanish residential homes with no friends or family, little money and no grasp of the language or culture.

    (Also, frankly, British migration to Spain isn’t exactly a great advert for EU migration – our people have trashed and cheapened some of Spain’s most beautiful locations, scrubbed the Spanish identity from swathes of Spanish coastline and contributed little but money to Spain).

    On the idea that returning pensioners would buy bungalows in Devon. Any British pensioner in Spain who could afford the £300,000 cost of a bungalow in Devon would probably not be coming back, as they would be living the life of Riley over there in a nice villa with a pool, and the Spanish would be pretty reluctant to send them packing. It’s the ones that haven’t got the means to buy anything at all that are more likely to come back (see above) and they will be going into one bedroomed flats and residential homes. You can fit half a dozen flats in the footprint of one bungalow, so hopefully a bit of demolition will make room…

    Yes, the UK economy would take a hit from losing lots of young, hard-working and productive workers. I’ve never questioned the negative economic effect of Brexit (although I don’t think it will be armageddon). But Somerjohn was responding specifically to my desire to prevent development through limiting population growth, so GDP considerations were a diversion.

    As to whether EU migrants would be replaced with non-EU migrants. I think that’s up to the government and isn’t remotely an inevitable consequence. My personal belief is that we will always welcome some migrants, from the EU and the rest of the world, where there is either a skill shortage or where the profile of that person makes them so clearly the right person for the job that the granting of a work permit is sensible. It’s about controlling (and reducing) immigration not stopping it completely. I know that there is a feeling amongst some people from Commonwealth countries that good migrants from their communities are crowded out by lesser quality migrants from the EU. I have no idea if that’s true, and no idea if reducing EU immigration would actually help any of those potential migrants. I doubt the numbers would be significant though.

    So, as I said to Somerjohn, I simply don’t accept his premises, as he generally doesn’t accept mine.

  10. Sorry a bit of cut/paste from Somerjohn’s original post crept in to the end of my third paragraph..

  11. @Pete B

    What interested me about this Unilever episode was the speed people were ferreting out information and suggesting substitutes. Did you know for example that Tesco does it’s own Yeast Extract for £1.75 (compared to Marmite’s current price of £2.35)? Me neither, but people were busily sharing this info and comparing tastes. Someone even linked to moneysaving expert’s classic “Great Disguised Own Brand Hunt” thread (own brands which are identical to branded stuff apart from the packaging and price), to help people with their boycotts.

    There is an army of people out there determined not to be shafted by Rip-off-Britain, and combine that with Brexit feelings that get more and more stubborn with every pronouncement from the EU, add in the Daily Mail and Twitter, and you have the makings of a consumer movement that is inclined to push back hard at every enemy european that takes a pop at us. Nestle and others who want to raise prices will have watched the Tesco v Unilver standoff with alarm.

  12. A little anecdote to illustrate the dangers of generalisations.
    My daughter (aged 34) has just returned from Spain with her common law husband after about 3 years running a smallholding with pigs, goats, chickens, ducks, turkeys etc. It didn’t really pay, but they are really coming back because her partner had a collapsed lung. Though the medical treatment was ok the nurses weren’t too chummy because the one phrase he thought he had mastered in Spanish was “I speak English, I don’t speak Spanish, I’m sorry”. Apparently what he was really saying was ” I speak English, I don’t speak Spanish, I’m glad”.
    Anyway, it seems they’re back for a while and are investing in a B&B in Blackpool. This could be a good move as the pound has fallen, holidays in England might start to take off.

    So basically, not all emigrants to Spain are retired or criminals on the run.

  13. Candy
    “Nestle and others who want to raise prices will have watched the Tesco v Unilver standoff with alarm”

    Absolutely. The Dunkirk spirit and all that. People may sneer, but the British people don’t respond well to bullying. If I may share a link:

    https://centurean2.wordpress.com/2009/05/16/we-are-the-people-of-england-that-never-have-spoken-yet/

  14. “Are you a remainer business or are you a leaver, are you a friend or are you an enemy.”

    ————

    More parallels with Indy….

  15. “Absolutely. The Dunkirk spirit and all that. People may sneer, but the British people don’t respond well to bullying.”

    ———-

    Similarly business warnings didn’t go down too good with some peeps during indy ref…

  16. So the British consumer is getting it’s knickers in a twist over marmite but is happy getting ripped off over fuel, gas and electric?

    Won’t last anyway as most Brits these days are against collective organisations and fighting for it’s rights, look at how many view unions.

  17. Pete
    “Won’t last anyway as most Brits these days are against collective organisations and fighting for it’s rights, look at how many view unions.”

    Nowadays it doesn’t need a collective organisation at all. That’s 20th century thinking. A Facebook and Twitter campaign would do it. G’night all.

  18. @Rach

    indeed, Cammers did have to fight to keep the euro trades thing, and we don’t have Cammers any more…

  19. As a case in point, during the 2011 English city riots we saw the forces of the Establishment given the run around by a few thousand teenaged hoodies with mobile phones.

    And the rest of the population all around the country knew exactly what was going on before the police did.

  20. @CANDY

    “The voters are in a bolshy mood, and Europeans are now The Enemy. Any European manufacturer who tries to raise prices will get the same treatment Unilever did today – people actively looking to stop buying their products and to substitute other goods.”

    What complete and utter tosh! You seriously need psychiatric help – urgently too. You seem to be living back in 1940.
    As far as I am concerned you and hard Brexit fanatics like you are the real enemies of this country.

    “You have consistently misjudged how people would react to Brexit. You assumed a recession after the vote because you assumed people would be scared and not spend. Well remainers cowered under the bedclothes, but brexiteers didn’t. You assumed that consumers would meekly accept price gouging, but they didn’t. A whole boycott movement spouted up overnight (with people adding other reasons to the mix, such as Unilever’s animal testing, poor treatment of staff in developing countries etc). They’re not going to bounce back from this, their brands are going to struggle.”

    The men in white coats are coming for you.

    “This whole episode should be a warning to manufacturers that consumers arn’t behaving the way they did before the referendum. New factors are in play. Are you a remainer business or are you a leaver, are you a friend or are you an enemy. All those things afre now more important than brands.”

    You can be sure that for you and those like you I am an enemy – and I promise you that I will fight you for as long as I any strength in my body. On the other hand, your comments demonstrate that you are severely mentally ill and need help.

  21. @Rach

    Soz, missed your comment regarding soft Brexit earlier. I suppose they were worried putting a soft brexit option in the ref might have made it more likely there’d be a Brexit. If you know you’re gonna lose, then it becomes more compelling. I suppose I’m amazed Cameron wasn’t more worried about losing after all the stoking of immigration concerns prior to the GE. They do loads that favour electorally for the GE, but for the EU ref didn’t lower the voting age etc.

  22. @Tancred

    Whatever your political differences with anyone else, could I politely ask that you refrain from using mental illness as a jovial source of stigma.

    It is not, on the whole, particularly humorous for the millions of us who have suffered or do suffer from poor mental health.

    Would you treat other types of burden as flippantly? (“Your views are foolish: you must have leukemia!” “What outrageous principles: are you a double amputee?”)

  23. @NEIL A

    “I agree there’s a parallel, but the difference is that all but the most English-Nat inclined would have favoured as generous and inclusive a settlement for Scotland as possible. The rUK would have supported Scotland’s EU membership, striven to ensure that the rights of Brits and Scots were protected and tried to minimize the damage of Indy for everyone concerned.

    And the underlying reason for that difference is that there was no anxiety that other parts of the UK would follow Scotland out of the door if they were seen to be a success. Both because no one really thinks that Northern Ireland, Wales, the North, London, Cornwall, Yorkshire (ok, maybe Yorkshire..) would want to go, and because frankly England, or England and Wales, would steam on quite happily on their own even if it happened.”

    ————

    Well it seemed as though Indy peeps felt like businesses relocating head offices South and being denied the currency etc. was similar to punishment Brexit. But yes, there’s perhaps less worry about more components of UK leaving but then if Scots made a big success of Indy might beging to tempt others…

    Obviously the comparison won’t be similar in all respects…

  24. @Neil A

    Thanks for that comprehensive reply to Somerjohn’s points. Now I’m wondering what he’ll come up with…

  25. I don’t think Donald Tusk’s statement has helped the Remainer’s cause one little bit. “Hard Brexit or No Brexit”.

    The EU is implying that it can probably overturn the Referendum with intransigence during the divorce negotiations.

    This is the same Junker tactic line during the French Referendum on the constitution in 2005 “If it’s a Yes, we will say ‘on we go’, and if it’s a No we will say ‘we continue’ “.

    Basically democratic referendums are to be ignored and even derided.

    I think they fail to understand British stubbornness and sense of fairplay. The right wing jingoistic red top rags will have a field day.

    There’s also quite a bit of positioning going on in the broadsheets, here’s one of the better argued pieces:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/12/if-europe-insists-on-a-hard-brexit-so-be-it/

    The Canadian PM has just lambasted the EU calling into question its Raison D’Etre if it can’t even ratify a trade deal with a progressive democracy like Canada after reports that the Belgian French Walloons wish to vote it down to protect their inefficient farmers.

  26. Carfrew; “@Neil A
    Thanks for that comprehensive reply to Somerjohn’s points. Now I’m wondering what he’ll come up with…”

    Well, not much really because I have a busy day in front of me and about 2 mins to post this…

    However, yes: thanks to Neil A for full reply.

    I’m not sure being called innumerate is in the spirit of this site, and I don’t think it’s justified in the context Neil A used it. This what he said:

    “But the idea that the numbers would balance out or even exceed the effects of restricting migration into the UK is innumerate. People are still trapped in the past, thinking that huge numbers of Brits are still moving to Spain etc. The truth is that the number of registered Brits in Spain has actually fallen, not grown. There are still a lot more Brits in Spain than there are Spaniards in Britain, but it is a declining trend, and the demographics of the Brits in Spain suggests to me that the decline will steepen.”

    Pointing out that fewer Brits are going to Spain, and more are returning, with the trend likely to strengthen, is an odd way to refute my suggestion that net emigration of Brits might decline. You might even call it innumerate…

    Anyway, hey-ho, hey-ho, it’s off to work I go…

  27. It will be rather ironic if a campaign by fundamentalist brexiteers and the Daily Mail puts British workers out of a job at the Marmite factory!

  28. Alec

    ” and so probably feel quite comfortable right now. If you seriously think they have been slapped down and can never raise prices, then more fool you.”

    Rather surprised at that from you Alec. Obviously a price rise has been agreed, probably for some products and I suspect the lower of your suggested figures overall. However it has been a PR disaster for Unilever of some magnitude, you never mentioned that and a PR success for Tesco, you never mentioned that either.

  29. People seem to think the British consumer can teach Unilever a lesson by dumping Marmite for Tesco own brand, but that kind of assumes that Tesco some how have their own Yeast Extract Factory somewhere.

    As with most Own Brands Tesco’s will be made in the same factory as the Brand version, often identical but sometimes to a lower spec.

    I am not sure who ons that factory but I suspect it’s Unilever!

    Peter.

  30. Tancred

    “What complete and utter tosh! You seriously need psychiatric help – urgently too. You seem to be living back in 1940.”

    I am afraid from the general hysterical pitch of many of your posts you should look nearer to home for the person needing psychiatric help.

    One of you is a very unpleasant person but you have two personalities, one can calmly post quite interesting stuff, your take on historical events for example, but the other personality is rude to the extreme at times.

    I’ll give the benefit of the doubt and just ask you to grow up.

    Candy

    I see you took a lot of nonsense last night about Unilever, I am sure the insults don’t worry you at all but you were absolutely right.

  31. SEA CHANGE

    I posted Tusk’s comments last night to make exactly the point you make.

    As I said if this really is the attitude of the EU and the EU nations then it’s all straightforward we have voted to leave, even most Remainer MP’s have said they accept the decision of the British people, so we enact Art 50, the EU refuses to leave and we leave in 2years time.

  32. Council by-elections last night:

    2 LDem holds in Farron’s constituency, plus a massive swing to gain a seat in Poole Dorset from the Tories

    Lab 3 decent holds (2 in Lewisham, one in Lancaster)

    Independents hold one in Lincolnshire and take a seat off the Tories with a big swing in Surrey.

    Tories hold 2 in Sevenoaks Kent, but lose 2 in a bad night for them.

    UKIP miss on both Kent targets although vote is up a bit in one.

    More straws in the wind…. Labour stabilising, especially in heartland areas, LDems recovering a bit, Tories softer in local elections than polls might indicate, UKIP still struggling to make any headway.

  33. @Pete B – when I use the word ‘daft’, it’s as an affectionate term of amusement and not a personal attack. Think of it in the same vein as saying ‘you’ll understand one day’ when faced with an earnest child with a strong opinion when dealing with a topic that they don’t yet realise they don’t understand.

    @TOH – incorrect. I specifically mentioned that Tescos have come out well from this. I suspect that Unilever have got what they wanted, which is an across the board price rise alongside establishment that we are now in an inflationary environment. This seems to be the view of retail analysts, who seem to think that this was the main pointm rather than attempting to get a 10% price rise.

    @Candy – I disagree. I think I have been quite level about the impacts of Brexit, both before and after the vote. I was highly critical of the doommongers before the vote, but equally critical of those who are pretending that there are no big negatives coming.

    The idea that consumers are going to war on Unilever is fanciful, and probably stems from the fact that you are spending too long in the online echo chamber. There will be some price elasticity on their products for sure, but most voters won’t bother to check who makes what and will not be agitating against Unilever.

    You then say – “Most Brits are connected to a gas network. Are the domestic heating oil users in a leaver area or a remainer area? If they are in a remainer area, I expect their fellow remainers took the cringing handwringing attitude that nothing could be done. That’s your attitude, right? Have you bothered to look into substitutes or get connected to the grid, or are you doing the classic remainer thing?”

    Here, I am going to be charitable and not call you stupid, but I will insist that you are terribly ill informed.

    Off grid areas are spread across the country, in both Leave and Remain areas. Yes, I have looked into the oil substitues – that is part of my professional job and I have been doing it for two decades. LPG is worse than oil (prices going up now too) electricity much more expensive, and other alternatives involve practical issues and high capital costs.

    ‘Get connected to the grid’. Sigh. What a blssfully ignorant world you inhabit. Getting a village connection usually costs millions, as it involves substantial infrastructure spending. It can’t be done by a single household, except in exceptional circumstances where the gas is already there.

    But don’t worry – gas prices are rising as well, as they are pegged to the dollar oil, so you’ll soon get your chance to wage your war against the profiteers.

    This morning I’m smarting somewhat from the news that a 6MW community wind power project that was going to provide a healthy income for a poor (and heavily Leave area) now looks like falling apart, because the price of the European made turbines (no one makes them in the UK now) has just gone up by £300,000. It looks like it’s screwed our finances, and in all probability the project will now die.

    But don’t worry – I’m sure an army of angry Leavers can help this particular community.

    I received some mild criticism yesterday for suggesting some people need to grow up.

    I rest my case.

  34. SEACHANGE

    Sorry should have read …………….the EU refuses to discuss a deal and we leave in 2 years time.

  35. Alec

    “@TOH – incorrect.

    Must disagree Alec, you have not acknowledged the PR disaster that it was for Unilever, which it clearly was.

    “I received some mild criticism yesterday for suggesting some people need to grow up.”

    Sorry to say I think the criticism was deserved on that occasion.

  36. Alec

    Just to add to the Unilever /Tesco affair today’s shere prices are interesting

    Unilever are down 1% Tesco are up 2.6%.

  37. BIGFATRON

    That’s interesting, where did you get the results, I always have trouble until they eventually appear on the Conservative Home site.

    I suspect your correct about a small Liberal revival but it’s not being reflected in the national polls where the LB’s have been static for ages.

    Obviously as AW often reminds us individual Council By-elections don’t mean much but there has been a bit of a trend recently.

  38. On the subject of Marmite, having dealt with the big supermarkets in my career from the supplier end, no one should underestimate the power of the large supermarkets. I have known a popular dark beer from Ireland be de listed in a stand off over pricing. In short, Tesco can do without Unilever but Unilever cannot do without Tesco. Given that Tesco is also headed by an ex Unilever man, I suspect that any price increase is minimal.

    We can all applaud Tesco in this stand off against a company like Unilever trying to be opportunistic in claiming a price increase totally made in the uk but blaming Brexit. Unfortunately the same applies to the way farmers are dealt with and is why they receive so little for their milk.

  39. Missed out the words, “on a product” in the second paragraph.

  40. Robert Newark

    Thanks for the insight Robert, in my career i was made well aware of the power of the big retailers, your absolutely correct.

  41. @ToH
    Most businesses will take a ‘PR disaster’ if it means they can recover 5% against their gross profit margins.

    Unilever’s gross margin in 2014 was 14%, so an adverse 15% FX move on even a proportion of their input prices is going to do some serious damage to their profitability when supplying to the UK.

    It would be bizarre to expect a huge multi-national to take a hit to their profits in order to insulate British shoppers against the impact of a Sterling devaluation, regardless of why the currency was falling.

    However it is easy to see why Tesco’s, which is fighting to recover market share and customer satisfaction ratings, would want to make a fuss and gain some brownie points with the UK consumer…

    I sincerely doubt Unilever management or their shareholders are unhappy about the outcome of all this.

  42. @ToH
    vote-2012 is the best site that I have found; good briefings on the individual contests and it is not affiliated to any party, so there is no filtering of bad news that you might get on Tory, Labour or Lib Dem affiliated sites.

  43. Alec

    Just so that you know i am not getting at you;-

    “@Candy – I disagree. I think I have been quite level about the impacts of Brexit, both before and after the vote. I was highly critical of the doommongers before the vote, but equally critical of those who are pretending that there are no big negatives coming.”

    I agree with you, that has been your position and while I suspect we disagree about the size and time span of the downside that’s quite fair.

  44. @Robert Newark

    Yes the supply chain domination of a behemoth like Tesco has unfortunate side-effects in squeezing every last drop out of the producers. The only way to counteract this is to build a strong brand that has greater margins. But even Marmite was not immune from getting the squeeze.

    We will of course see some inflation in prices of imported food with a lower valued pound. This will be offset by being able to buy cheaper food outside of the customs union when we leave.

  45. Bigfatron

    Fair enough, that’s your view but I maintain it has been a PR disaster, they came to a deal very quickly once it became known that other retailers were also resisting.

    In the eyes of the public I am sure it is very bad publicity for Unilever which is another reason why they settled so quickly.

    In a months time all forgotten of course.

  46. BIGFATRON

    Thanks for the info.

  47. @PETE B “But we are the people of England; and we have not spoken yet.”
    Given that the main regions voting Remain were Scotland, Northern Ireland and London (where we are told half the population is not English) it seems to me that the English have spoken quite loudly, 70 odd % of them in some places.

  48. @Alec

    Thanks for saving me the trouble of responding to our constantly factually challenged poster on oil etc. She probably can’t envisage septic tanks either! I’m just weighing up whether to top up our oil now or wait when we can shop around and see if we can get some discount for buying 2000 litres rather than 600. But of course by then the tank will be very low and the weather could mean that the tanker can’t get here ( we nearly ran dry in 2010/11 when the tanker which should have been delivering to us slid off the road into the ditch ). I think you mentioned you are in a buying group; does that work well?. I think it might be worth suggesting our village community trust looks into it.

  49. Good Morning All.
    Sunshine here in Bournemouth South.
    New YG Polls are being tweeted on May v Corbyn and on Party intentions.

  50. Con 42 (+3)
    Lab 28 (-2)
    LDem 9 (+1)
    UKIP 11 (-2)

    is what I am hearing…

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