ICM’s latest poll from the Guardian is out, with topline figures of CON 43%(+2), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 11%(-3), GRN 6%(+2) – changes are from ICM’s last poll, conducted for the Sun on Sunday in mid-September.

The seventeen point Conservative lead is the largest that ICM have shown in any poll since October 2009 (the Guardian cites it as the largest since 2008, but I think that’s because they are looking at the ICM/Guardian series of polls – the 2009 poll was one for the News of the World).

The size of the lead is likely flattered by the timing – it was conducted over the weekend, so the Conservatives could have expected some sort of boost from Theresa May’s first conference as leader. It’s also worth noting that ICM do tend to produce some of the most pro-Conservative voting intention figures – they have adopted a substantial number of changes since the polling errors of 2015 (switching to online, weighting by political knowledge, reallocating don’t knows differently and modelling turnout based on age and social class) which tend to produce the most pro-Conservative figures. That’s not to say they are wrong – in 2015 all the pollsters understated the Tory lead, so it’s very likely that in correcting those errors, changes will me made that produce more Conservative figures. We won’t know for sure until 2020 whether pollsters have gone too far in those corrections or not far enough.

In this case, even before the turnout weighting ICM would have been showing a very robust 14 point Conservative lead (and the reallocation of don’t knows actually helped Labour). Whatever you did with this data would have produced a huge great Tory lead – it’s the combination of a new Prime Minister, a Conservative conference boost, and a distracted opposition. Full tabs are here.


610 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 43, LAB 26, LD 8, UKIP 11, GRN 6”

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  1. YouGov Poll

    Who would make the best Prime Minister?

    Theresa May – 51%
    Jeremy Corbyn – 18%
    Don’t know – 31%

    Voting Intention:

    Cons: 42 (+3)
    Lab: 28 (-2)
    UKIP: 11 (-2)
    Lib: 9 (+1)

  2. Retailers have historically held the whip-hand in commercial relationships with manufacturers, and still do. An interesting side context though, is the degree to which manufacturers have experimented with direct-to-consumer trading in the last couple of years (e.g. Unilever bought the Dollar Shave Club recently, and most major global retailers are experimenting with similar initiatives, often leveraging internet connected devices like fridges; toothbrushes and so on).

    The main thing that is keeping these manufacturer experiments low key, is fear of short-term damage to retailer relationships, in a commercial environment in which they still drive the very great majority of sales volume.

    Given the way the wind is blowing though, I’d suggest it isn’t totally in Tesco’s interests to play hard-ball in this type of situation.

  3. @Hireton

    I don’t think you can install septic tanks anymore.

    You would need a small treatment plant instead.

    /pendant

  4. Don’t Knows comprehensively beating old Corby there!

    Another truly dreadful poll for Labour and showing the same movement towards the Tories post conferences.

  5. @alec

    Data on gas supply availability is here for constantly factually challenged poster

    http://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-trends-december-2013-special-feature-article-off-gas-properties

    About 20% of properties in sw England and Scotland do not have gas meters. The areas in white in Figure 2 show where there are no gas mains.

    Another aspect of this is that dual fuel.discounts are not available to those of us who are off grid an has @Alec has said before the oil market is not regulated.

  6. @Matt Wardman

    They still need emptying periodically but at least we don’t pay sewerage charges!

  7. I’m really disappointed by a lot of contributions on this forum yesterday / today on the Tesco vs Unilever saga that’s hit the news – many from people that should know better, especially the Eurosceptics who I can’t understand taking Tesco’s side as I would think Tesco stand for everything ‘Middle England’ detest.

    However big Unilever are, I think it’s disgusting the way Tesco are treating them – just like the way they treat all suppliers, big or small.

    I am a Eurosceptic who thinks we should get on with the job of leaving although I reluctantly voted to remain – however, the idea that price increases due to Brexit are somehow contrived / not real, is completely ludicrous. We are in big trouble due to it in our business, as our putting up prices by a similar amount to Unilever across the board is proving way insufficient given the GBP’s further heavy falls this month. We would go broke if many of our customers treated us the way Tesco treat Unilever.

    People on here are posting some populist nonsense about this standoff. They, and sections of the media, are sucked in by Tesco’s PR exercise as they don’t understand from experience what this is about. The idea that because a few of Unilever’s products are made in the UK therefore their costs haven’t gone up in imported raw materials – and on countless other products not made in the UK – is ridiculous. Often the fairest as well as the simplest way of increasing prices in a situation like this, is to apply an increase ‘across the board’ – rather than end up with even more disproportionately high increases on some products, whilst perhaps being able to hold prices on others. We applied an ‘across the board’ increase in our business, and I am sure that this is the right way to do it.

    Our currency truly has fallen through the floor, and I am sure that it is coming home to bite Unilever as much as the rest of us who are small businesspeople. They can’t sustain their business’s future on last year’s £2b profit, this is just a diversion mixed, in some cases, with the politics of envy.

  8. New thread

  9. OLDNAT
    No wonder the judges want more argument on whether tabling Article 50 can be revoked or not!

    Quite so, and many thanks for the link to transcript. A compelling read albeit at 206 pages not a quick one!

    Ultimately it looks like it will depend on whether A50 is “reversible”. Whilst nothing in it suggests it is not, I could imagine even the UK Supreme Court needing to go to the ECJ to seek clarity.

    Should it fail, I suspect the Belfast Agreement EU bits are even more compelling given that the NI electorate have only just voted to retain their status [ie EU membership].

  10. Dave
    “it seems to me that the English have spoken quite loudly, 70 odd % of them in some places.”

    Exactly. At last.

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