I’ve been tied up with boundary changes and having a birthday at the weekend, so this is just a quick post to catch up with some of the voting intention and Scottish Independence polling I’ve missed. Looking at Westminster voting first, I’ve updated the voting intention on the sidebar to include all the latest figures. Overall the Conservative party’s lead remains strong – most polls still have the Tories at around 40% and Labour around 30%.

The two most recent polls, from YouGov and Ipsos MORI, both showed the Tory lead falling a bit – YouGov had a lead of 7 points (down from 11), MORI a lead of 6 points (down from 11). In the case of YouGov, this is actually within the normal range of their recent polling (they had the Tory lead at 7 and 8 points in August too) and the MORI poll is probably at least partially a reversion to the mean after an anomalously high 45% score for the Tories their previous poll. Nevertheless, it may be a sign of Theresa May’s honeymoon continuing to fade.

Two years on from the Indyref we’ve also seen a handful of new polls on Scottish independence. The last time I wrote about polling on Scottish independence was at the end of July. Back then we had seen a couple of polls from Survation and Panelbase taken immediately after the EU Referendum that appeared to show a shift in favour of Scottish independence, but a YouGov poll taken a few weeks later showing no apparent change. We’ve had several more Scottish polls since then, including more recent polls from Survation and Panelbase, as well as polls from TNS and Ipsos MORI. The picture now looks very clear, showing NO ahead with no obvious net movement towards Yes as a result of the EU referendum (though as John Curtice points out there has been churn under the surface). MORI show NO five points ahead, Survation, Panelbase and TNS all have NO six points ahead.


464 Responses to “Catching up on voting intention and Scottish Independence”

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  1. Peter Cairns SNP

    Say what you like Peter and most of that last post to me is utter tosh I shall continue to post as I wish until AW stops me.

    You really are in a strop because you don’t like my posts, you make all sorts of assumptions about me when you know very little other than what I have told people on here. Your like a spoilt child who cannot get his way and I really am not going to change so give up reading my posts, there’s a good chap.

  2. Lazlo,

    Not sure how much we can put on those figures as their headline result is a good way adrift from 62/38!

    For the little it’s worth given it’s size it has Scotland backing Smith… If true that should lead to more fun and games.

    Peter.

  3. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “Sorry things not so good for you but happy your team (Lancs?) escaped relegation to Div2.”

    —————-

    Oh, there are more cheery things, it’s just not necessarily stuff one might post about. And there are workarounds… one shifts from buying hardware like synths, to software that – not being a physical product – still has big discounts despite Brexit. (These days it gets interesting when you can pre-order plugins at a discount thus helping to fund development of summat useful).

    just don’t mention the footy which is even worse…

  4. Peter

    Well, judging from the crossbreaks they probably asked all LP members in Scotland (no, it is not fair, but anyway). :-)

    Interestingly, the LP has enormous amount of data on their members (partly from their conversations campaign), which would be great to have (they understandably release them with great delays).

    At least we know now that Saving Labour lied (about numbers) and was truthful about signing up anti-Corbyn supporters.

    The NEC will apparently release regional figures (instead of the poll I linked earlier). The trouble is of course that it would not be possible to separate the effect of jobs (such as public sector employees):

  5. “There are five camps forming after Brexit –which one are you in?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-theresa-may-which-camp-are-you-a7325681.html

    There are the Triumphant Brexiteers, Worried Uncertains, Cautious Adaptors, Pro-European Refuseniks and then there’s Theresa May”

  6. TOH,

    All I’ve ever asked is that you back up your assertions with evidence, there is nothing childish about that.

    Without anything to back them up your views are little more than an act of faith and I am disenclined to believe things are true just because someone is adamant they are.

    I’ve never been one to accept that things are just as they seem without looking a bit deeper or that it’s just something we all know to be true like;

    “The Sun Comes Up in the Morning and Ges Down at Night!”

    Peter.

  7. Carfrew

    Never mind I can commiserate on the footy, I follow Harlequins Rugby Union and they have been rubbish so far this season just started.

    But hey the sun is shining here!

  8. “Brexit: True cost of UK leaving EU without trade deal revealed”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-cost-uk-leaving-eu-without-trade-deal-exports-negotiations-david-davis-a7325326.html

    “EXCLUSIVE: An analysis by The Independent of official data suggests British exporters would face a cost of at least £4.5bn – and in all likelihood they would take a hit many times larger”

  9. @Colin – “What people forget about The City is that it represents a pool of excellence & expertise built up over many years, ans-as Ed Conway reminds us-so far from being hampered by red tape & regulation, has built expertise around & because of it !”

    I haven’t read the full article, so have no way to comprehensively comment, but I have seen some of his comments. The nub of his argument appears to be that there are still substantial compliance costs of financial trading in the EU even after pass-porting (quoting costs of £2b for compliance measures overall in the article). He also says there is an equivalence scheme for institutions outside the EU, which may be better, or no worse, than pass-porting.

    Ed is a former Daily Mail and Telegraph writer, so it’s a fairly safe bet he warms to Brexit, which needs to be allowed for in his opinions, but I wonder if there are areas where his likely bias has clouded his judgement?

    For a start, the EU wants to progress to a free market in services. This may take a while, but presumably would make being inside a good deal easier. There is also the impact of regulation, with those outwith the EU having little say in consultations on how the rules are formed. It’s a fairly safe bet that Brussels regulators will not be minded to ensure measures favour or protect London, and they won’t have any government ministers at the table fighting their corner.

    Getting back to your original quote, I also suspect that much of the ‘experience and expertise’ you mention resides within the City in the form of human capital. Aside from money itself, in the electronic age, this is the easiest type of capital to move across borders, and with Frankfurt and Paris very keen to poach talent, the idea that the City has an edge that is bound to attract business come what may may well be misplaced, with the business opportunities elsewhere more likely to poach the talent a distinct possibility.

    One possible counter to this would be for the UK government to provide incentives for firms to stay, but I’m really not at all sure that providing and even more lenient tax regime for the finance industry is agreeable to many people here.

    I wonder whether some of this is part of the assumed image of the UK be those favouring Brexit, in a similar vein to the vaguely ridiculous claims by some that we should reinvent the royal yacht Britannia as part of the post Brexit landscape. Harking back to former glories, assuming that our current dominance will outlive everything, because we are so good at something. It’s a dangerous game.

    Just like sometimes a fine looking apple can be busy rotting from the inside, I suspect we may well see the City chugging along nicely for a while after Brexit, but over time the balance of trade will tip towards Europe, and the point will be reached when we realise we’ve lost out.

  10. Peter Cairns: “You really can’t quote me a figure and then when I estimate on that quote a larger figure and challenge my estimate based on the figure you’ve now refuted.”

    Sorry. In my original post I used YTD rather than year-to-date for the sake of brevity, making the silly assumption that it was widely understood. This is what I said:

    UK 2016 YTD car production to the end of August was 1,132,727, of which 77.5% was for export.
    UK 2016 YTD car sales to the end of August were 1,680,799.

    I guess you thought I meant a rolling annual total.

    I understand now that you are taking current UK production of 1.75m and positing an increase to 2m on the basis of … I’m not sure. I think it’s more likely that, given a hard Brexit and WTO trading terms, UK car production will fall below 1m by 2025, as a result of these factors:

    1. Loss of EU market share because of tariff walls
    2. Closure of some plants through non-viability
    3. Direct imports from Japan, China, India etc replacing high-cost UK production as a result of new free trade agreements with those countries.

    Which plants are most likely to close is an interesting topic. Vauxhall is clearly most vulnerable, and then you would think Honda, based on its low production. But Honda seems to have an emotional tie of some sort with Britain, despite having been shafted over the BL sale to BMW, and arguably again with Brexit. So Toyota might be second to go, as Burnaston has never really taken off in production terms, with Nissan downsizing a lot as new models go elsewhere.

  11. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    We are probably in agreement at last, or nearly so.

    When I’m making important decisions and time allows me to do so, I do a lot of research, talk to suitable sources of information if available before i come to a view and make a decision. Generally it’s not something i share with others except my wife.

    Of course in the fast moving business I used to work in you often don’t have time to do that so i made decisions based on “gut feel”. I got most of those decisions right because gut feel actually relates to your acquired knowledge and wisdom that you build up over the years.

    I visit this site for a number of reasons, to see what other people think, to post what I think, and when I am at a loose end to amuse myself in a dialogue. I have no real interest in lengthy debates, it’s not why i visit here. As I said I’m not going to change but I do agree

    “The Sun Comes Up in the Morning and Ges Down at Night!”

  12. @PC(SNP) something we all know to be true like;
    “The Sun Comes Up in the Morning and Goes Down at Night!”

    Yes. It is hard to really believe that the earth beneath your feet is spinning about the earth’s axis at about 1000mph, while the sun stays just where it is all day and night (relative to the earth – for purists)

  13. O/T Poland seems to have gone full authoritarian with their anti-abortion laws. Their 1993 law bans all terminations unless there was rape or incest, the pregnancy poses a health risk to the mother, or the foetus is severely deformed. They’ve now removed those exemptions, so women are forced to carry a pregnancy to full term regardless. It’s the most extreme anti-abortion law in the world. Even Saudi allows termination if the woman’s life is in danger.

    And remember that poles in the UK will have voted for PiS, they don’t share our values at all.

    I’m so glad we will no longer be in a union with these people.

  14. Robin

    Not much has changed in a year apart from a retroactive freeze date and increasing the supporters fee to 25 quid and restricting it to a two day window. 50,000 registered supporters didn’t get a vote, a similar number of members also didn’t get a vote due to a “technical glitch”. 172 MPs voted no confidence in corbyn and there has been a massive media campaign against corbyn and his supporters.

    So yes, not much has changed and its hardly surprising that corbyn increased his majority slightly

  15. I think that in the face of the attacks from all sides since his first day in the job it is amazing the mandate increased.

    It really will look bad to members if MP’s don’t get a grip and support the leader of the party.

  16. the Sun doesn’t always go down, sometimes it stays up all night, like in the Arctic…

  17. MarkW
    There has been quite a lot of scientific work on “gut instinct” as a means of decision making. I thought this was balanced and interesting read
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141010194016-16410391-decision-making-and-instincts-is-your-brain-or-gut-more-powerful

    Carfrew

    Where I live it does, and I guess it does where Peter lives.

  18. Candy: “O/T Poland seems to have gone full authoritarian with their anti-abortion laws… I’m so glad we will no longer be in a union with these people.”

    I agree that the Polish government is becoming increasingly abhorrent. I trust that our government will use its remaining time in the EU to call for firm pressure from the EU, including if necessary suspension of Poland, to get the country to comply with European values.

    And I trust that our government will speak out firmly on this topic, showing no craven subservience to commercial and political interests. (I won’t mention Saudi Arabia or Commonwealth tax havens).

  19. ALEC

    @” I wonder if there are areas where his likely bias has clouded his judgement?”

    Pretty much in the same camp as Mr Cairns then-no point in reading it then really.

    I’ve watched him on Sky News & read him in the Times & know how critical he has been of Tory Chancellors in the past. So his ability to be party politically even handed is OK by me.

    As to his own bias on Brexit-I suppose everyone has one don’t they? Unless you have an aversion to analysis & opinion of Govian/Cairnsian proportions doesn’t it make sense to read as many facts as possible & test any attached opinion yourself on the basis of them? I never did get the business of “approved” & unapproved” economic & political opinion..

    I just thought Conway’s information on Passporting & the City’s history was interesting.

  20. Candy

    Appalling attitudes and law.

  21. @Somerjohn

    Britain has already expressed it’s revulsion with Brexit. We’ve already told Poland that we’re going to punish them by stopping our EU contribution and ending free movement of people, and getting as far away from their unpleasant regime as we can – all mandated by the good old British electorate!

    It’s your beloved EU that is enabling the Poles, and others. Hungary has enforced an extreme manual labour for all unemployed people – so you could be an accountant who has lost his job and you end up breaking rocks. It’s designed to force them to leave and become some other country’s problem. And the EU endorsed that too.

    And remember the poles and hungarians in Britain voted for this stuff. They do not share our values in any way at all. Commonwealth countries are more in line with our thinking in every respect. This is why we need to break ties with the EU before QMV allows them to try to impose their disgusting views on us.

  22. @ToH

    “Where I live it does, and I guess it does where Peter lives.”

    ————-

    Scotland’s devolved though, things may be different up there…

  23. On gut decision, bit more info., read in the Times this week about research into traders in stocks etc., which found that those who were more aware of their body, tended to be better traders. They measured how good people were at gauging their heart rate, without actually taking their own pulse, just by being aware of their heart. Those better at such “interoception” tended to be better traders

    (And ToH might like to know that senior traders tended to better at it than younger traders…)

  24. From a Sky quote of a YouGov exit Poll-according to pb:-

    Members who joined:
    Pre May 2015
    Smith 63%
    Corbyn 37%

    Since JC elected
    Corbyn 83%
    Smith 15%

  25. Candy: “And remember the poles and hungarians in Britain voted for this stuff. They do not share our values in any way at all. Commonwealth countries are more in line with our thinking in every respect. This is why we need to break ties with the EU before QMV allows them to try to impose their disgusting views on us.”

    Your views are mouth-frothing stuff. Typecasting whole nationalities on the basis of their current government is the antithesis of the sort of liberal democratic values you appear to be championing.

    I think you know as well as I do that the May government is highly unlikely to say a word against PiS. After all, her MEPs sit alongside PiS in the Tory-created ECR.

    The EU might, or might not, take a firm stand. That will depend on the attitude of its members, including, for the time being, us. I hope that we have the courage to speak out. But not the expectation.

  26. I note that YouGov didn’t declare moe for the exit poll.

    And astonishingly, the sample was weighed by the demography of GB adults. Sounds a bit strange.

  27. CARFREW

    The last time I was in Scotland it wasn’t different, but that before the referendum, maybe there is a permanent SNP cloud over that country now.

    The gut decision making thing is interesting. I suspect the older traders were better at it because they had more acquired wisdom but I have no evidence for that.

  28. Anthony Wells

    Surely, the demography of the LP membership is different from the general public (I mean, the mean age of the Conservative Party members is pensioners bracket, so you surely wouldn’t weigh it by the general UK adults).

    Sorry, but I really can’t get my head around this methodology. Was it the reason for underestimating Corbyn’s win (especially as Smith appears to be winning among youngsters in the poll)?

  29. TOH

    “As I said I’m not going to change but I do agree;

    “The Sun Comes Up in the Morning and Goes Down at Night!”

    And the Jaws close;

    Sorry to yet again challenge your assumption with the facts, but the Sun doesn’t come up in the morning and go down at night!

    The Sun is stationary and the Earth rotates, even school kids know that.

    The Sun isn’t fiery ball pulled across the sky by the chariot of the gods that gets back every night via the River Styx!

    It’s a giant fusion reactor 93m miles away that we go round once every year at roughly 15,000 mph while rotating at 1,000 mph.

    The Sun doesn’t move it only appears too, it’s an optical illusion that is easy to believe if you don’t take the time to look at the evidence.

    But then you just believe what you want and freely admit your not going to change that regardless of what evidence is supplied to the contrary.

    Peter.

  30. Peter Cairns

    The Sun is stationary

    er…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buqtdpuZxvk

  31. To be fair, the Sun is close to a total eclipse in Liverpool …

  32. Dave,

    Yes it was a cheap shot which would have worked better if you hadn’t’t got in first with the facts, but sometimes the best way to expose a fool is to get him to drop his pants!

    Peter

  33. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    I haven’t the faintest idea what your talking about now.

    I posted that phrase about the sun straight back to try and please you as you are so touchy. So you just attempting to prove yourself wrong in your last post to me, which seems a very odd thing to do. I’m not particularly interested in what the sun does at the moment other than it’s out which is pleasant. I guess you are trying to be nasty and prove I’m an idiot but I think you just shot yourself in the foot.

    My post was about how I make decisions both informed and “gut” and why I post here.

    I’m beginning to worry that you have a problem. I suggest you calm down and do something you really like to take you mind off me.

  34. @CR

    “50,000 registered supporters didn’t get a vote, a similar number of members also didn’t get a vote due to a “technical glitch”.”

    Are you being wilfully antagonistic, or have you just swallowed the Momentum Kool-Aid?

    50,000 applications failed basic objective technical checks (including multiple applications – one person had 147 of them – already being eligible by another route, and not being on the electoral register). Only 4k were actively excluded.

    The “technical glitch” affecting 50k (evidence for this number?) – these are likely a much smaller number trying over and over again, and the glitch was short-lived so most will have registered later. And there can have been no particular bias for/against Corbyn supporters.

    In any case, as you know I don’t agree with the existence of the registered supporters route at all. If they are LP supporters they can b****y well join the party.

  35. @Somerjohn

    In democracies, the buck stops with the voters. Poland has extreme authoritarian laws because Poles there are extreme authoritarian types and freely voted for those laws. Nobody outside has imposed this on them. And the EU is very much in favour of endorsing everything they do.

    You seem to be in deep denial about this – possibly because you’ve lashed yourself to the EU mast and can’t bring yourself to admit you made a mistake. The EU in your imagination hasn’t existed since 2004.

  36. The spinning of the Earth is even more complicated, by the way, as it depends on the latitude, at the level of London it spins about 104 km in four minutes (so about 15 miles in a minute – sorry, I don’t know the Imperial measurement for minutes for Brexiters). But it is different on the equator (some of it once owned by the British Empire), and as Carfrew pointed it out, it is also different on the poles, which haven’t been British.

  37. Robin

    Many of last year’s registered supporters eventually joined the LP, and then 130,000 were disenfranchised … So, the asterisked adjective is a bit ott.

    However, I agree with you, as I tried to demonstrate it in a logical way when it came up, there was no purge.

  38. Candy

    Your absolutely correct of course. I liked your comment “You seem to be in deep denial about this – possibly because you’ve lashed yourself to the EU mast and can’t bring yourself to admit you made a mistake.”

  39. Laszlo

    Depends how far you want to go back, better try and convert it to cubits just to be sure, we don’t want any of that continental roman rubbish like miles here!

  40. Alan

    As minutes are Middle Eastern, so cubits would also be ok, I suppose. So the visual passage of the Sun in London (with or without the passport of financial services) is about 52,000 cubits a minute.

  41. @Laszlo

    While I am very much in favour with the principle of a 6 month waiting period (it should *not* be legitimate to join solely for the purpose of influencing what should be an entirely internal decision), I also agree it was badly handled in this case.

    But I think the stick McNicol has had has been grossly unreasonable. He had to play with the hand the NEC dealt him.

  42. Laszlo

    You seem to be equating Brexiters with imperial or even obsolete methods of measurement and recording. Why? I guess your having a sly dig at us. I don’t mind personally, but not up to your usual standard of post?

    I’m sure your clear that I am a Brexit supporter but I mostly use metric measurements in my everyday life and like many of my age can work in both metric and imperial. It has nothing to do with Brexit, you don’t have to be a member of the EU to use metric units :-)

  43. TOH,

    Oh but exposing that with you it’s almost all “Gut” and very little else is exactly what I like doing.

    Peter

  44. Candy: “Poland has extreme authoritarian laws because Poles there are extreme authoritarian types and freely voted for those laws. ”

    Well, this is a polling site so it would be good if you could back up your assertion with polling evidence. My (limited) understanding is that it’s a country deeply split between progressives and reactionaries. The reactionaries won the last election, but I suspect the country is now getting more than it bargained for. Again, polling evidence would be useful. Where’s Lazslo when you need him? (ah, of course, at the Corbyn shenanigans).

    In the meantime, it’s worth remembering that the UK was the greatest champion of early Polish accession to the UK, and voluntarily allowed immediate free movement to the uk when it didn’t have to.

    And I’d be interested to hear your views on why our governing party remains in bed with PiS in the ECR. Maybe their ‘disgust’ threshold is higher than yours?

    Finally, you feel I am “in deep denial” about the EU supporting everything PiS does. Well, not so much deep denial as deep ignorance. I’m not aware of any EU support for PiS, except possibly from some of the Tories’ fellow-traveller eurosceptics in the ECR. So please enlighten me.

  45. Candy,
    “O/T Poland seems to have gone full authoritarian with their anti-abortion laws. Their 1993 law bans all terminations unless there was rape or incest, … It’s the most extreme anti-abortion law in the world.”

    …which, when contrasted with other EU member states (such as Sweden, Denmark etc) having the most liberal abortion laws in the world, surely proves that EU members already have sovereignty?

    If you don’t mind me saying so, you have previously posted that the EU’s main problem is imposing its values on countries against the wishes of elected governments. Here, you seem to be saying that Poland’s elected government should be making policies that adhere to the rest of the EU rather than the will of its electorate?

    (Please don’t misunderstand, I am not defending the Polish government’s barbaric position at all, merely pointing out that you cannot simultaneously complain that EU members have both too little and too much sovereignty.)

  46. Candy: I think your comments violate the comments policy.

  47. PC(SNP)
    “a cheap shot which would have worked better if you hadn’t’t got in first with the facts”
    A shot that won’t stand up to the facts sounds to me like dud ammunition.
    But the point of my post is that it is sometimes (often) necessary to believe something which has been carefully worked out by others, but is contrary to what you see with your own eyes, unless you are prepared to put in considerable effort to understand.
    On polling results for example, it is very hard to get people to accept that an increase of 1 point in a party’s 30-odd % support is virtually meaningless, for within the margin of error that support may have fallen. But time and again, not only is that “rise” commented on, but reasons are found for its occurrence.

    I remember before the last general election following the ups and downs of YouGov Tory VI over some weeks. They were entirely explicable as expressions of variation due to sampling error. Indeed had they not occurred, the whole understanding of sampling error would be in doubt. But many other explanations were advanced by those wishing to believe them.

  48. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)
    I really am sorry Peter but you have a real problem, you tried a put down but failed because I was humouring you as in the definition “To comply with the wishes or ideas of (another) in order to keep that person satisfied.
    I think you really have become obsessed with me. Just look back at all your posts to me, obsessive.
    There is some good advice on how to deal with it at wikiHow under the title “How to deal with an obsessive mental preoccupation.
    There I have done some research to please you again, although why I bother………………

  49. “Britain has already expressed it’s revulsion with Brexit. We’ve already told Poland that we’re going to punish them by stopping our EU contribution and ending free movement of people, and getting as far away from their unpleasant regime as we can…”

    Presumably there is polling data which shows that the outcome of the EU referendum was affected by this issue?

    “It’s your beloved EU that is enabling the Poles, and others. Hungary has enforced an extreme manual labour for all unemployed people…”

    Presumably there is a link to evidence that the EU is instrumental in this and what powers it has to enforce such draconian laws on member states?

    “And remember that poles in the UK will have voted for PiS, they don’t share our values at all.”

    Presumably there is polling data on this? And presumably the strident poster will also be demanding the immediate deportation of all these terrible foreigners and severing all links with Saudi Arabla and all other states which don’t “share our values”?

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