I’ve been tied up with boundary changes and having a birthday at the weekend, so this is just a quick post to catch up with some of the voting intention and Scottish Independence polling I’ve missed. Looking at Westminster voting first, I’ve updated the voting intention on the sidebar to include all the latest figures. Overall the Conservative party’s lead remains strong – most polls still have the Tories at around 40% and Labour around 30%.

The two most recent polls, from YouGov and Ipsos MORI, both showed the Tory lead falling a bit – YouGov had a lead of 7 points (down from 11), MORI a lead of 6 points (down from 11). In the case of YouGov, this is actually within the normal range of their recent polling (they had the Tory lead at 7 and 8 points in August too) and the MORI poll is probably at least partially a reversion to the mean after an anomalously high 45% score for the Tories their previous poll. Nevertheless, it may be a sign of Theresa May’s honeymoon continuing to fade.

Two years on from the Indyref we’ve also seen a handful of new polls on Scottish independence. The last time I wrote about polling on Scottish independence was at the end of July. Back then we had seen a couple of polls from Survation and Panelbase taken immediately after the EU Referendum that appeared to show a shift in favour of Scottish independence, but a YouGov poll taken a few weeks later showing no apparent change. We’ve had several more Scottish polls since then, including more recent polls from Survation and Panelbase, as well as polls from TNS and Ipsos MORI. The picture now looks very clear, showing NO ahead with no obvious net movement towards Yes as a result of the EU referendum (though as John Curtice points out there has been churn under the surface). MORI show NO five points ahead, Survation, Panelbase and TNS all have NO six points ahead.


464 Responses to “Catching up on voting intention and Scottish Independence”

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  1. ToH

    I didn’t realise Roland-Jones finished the match off with a hat-trick. What an extra-ordinary end to the season. An immense final day for Middlesex given where they were at 2/2 and still 118 runs behind yesterday afternoon. That third wicket partnership was superb and dragged them back from the brink.

  2. “I notice as well that the corbyn camp is talking down expectations of a large win. I still find odds of 20/1 on Smith winning quite tempting though the odds might have moved in since monday”

    Don’t waste your money, Rachel! Corbyn will win easily….

  3. Prof Howard

    “I wonder if the Conservatives might win more MPs than Labour in Scotland next time out. Wouldn’t that be an amazing thing?”

    Only to you youngsters who don’t remember the 1950s! :-)

    As far as Coatbridge North and Glenboig is concerned, the “missing” party is an Independent (who had previously been a councillor for the ward) who got 10% of the 1st preference votes in 2012.

    He actually increased his 1st pref vote in 2012in 2007, but the transfer votes got in 2007 did not reappear in 2012, so he lost. The ways of STV elections can be odd!

  4. MIKE PEARCE

    Yes an absolutely amazing finish, Roland-Jones hat trick was spread over two overs but the game finished with three wickets in three balls anyway as Finn took a wicket with the last ball of the penultimate over.

    Yes it was a very good stand by Gubbins and Malan which set up the declaration and brilliant finish. Gubbins was out for 93 just missing his second ton of the match.

  5. Peter @ Tancred

    I don’t know about UK beinhated, but it certainly seems to be being laughed at!

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-britain-germany-france-idUSKCN11T1WY

    Johnson, a leading Brexit advocate who is known for his colorful language, told Sky News television on Thursday that the EU’s position that there was an automatic trade-off between what access to the single market and free movement was “complete baloney.”

    Asked about the remarks at a news conference in Berlin, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and his French counterpart Michel Sapin shot glances at each other before the German host responded.

    “We just looked at each other because we’re used to respecting foreign ministers a lot,” Schaeuble said.

    “If we need to do more, we will gladly send her majesty’s foreign minister a copy of the Lisbon Treaty. Then he can read that there is a certain link between the single market and the four core principles in Europe,” he added.

    “I can also say it in English. So if clarification is necessary we can pay a visit and explain this to him in good English,” Schaeuble said.

    Sapin, in a French twist on Johnson’s “baloney” jibe, said: “There are four freedoms and they cannot be separated. So if we want to make good European paté then there are four freedoms that together make up the paté in question.”

  6. Another section from the MORI Scottish poll – this time on attitudes to refugees.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/SRI_PA_IMScot_Immigration_Sept16_tables.pdf

    No VI data, so the 2014 Yes/No groups will have to do (and may be more relevant in Scotland anyway).

    Agree/Disagree with statements –

    “We must close our borders to refugees entirely – we can’t accept any at this time”

    All – Agree 27% : Disagree 72%
    Yes – Agree 22% : Disagree 78%
    No – Agree 30% : Disagree 69%

    “I’m confident that most refugees who come to the UK will successfully integrate into their new society”

    All – Agree 57% : Disagree 40%
    Yes – Agree 67% : Disagree 31%
    No – Agree 47% : Disagree 48%

    “Most foreigners who want to get into my country as a refugee really aren’t refugees. They just want to come here for economic reasons, or to take advantage of our welfare services”

    All – Agree 47% : Disagree 50%
    Yes – Agree 35% : Disagree 63%
    No – Agree 57% : Disagree 38%

    “The European Union has responded well to the refugee crisis”

    All – Agree 36% : Disagree 51%
    Yes – Agree 40% : Disagree 45%
    No – Agree 34% : Disagree 51%

    And, with the other questions, the pattern is much the same. There is a clear difference between the average Yes and No voter.

  7. LASZLO

    @”The damage of the summer has been done to the LP, ”

    Nicely topped off with tomorrow’s probable result :-

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/poll-working-class-voters-think-jeremy-corbyn-is-out-of-touch-and-an-election-loser-a7326486.html

  8. Labour have chosen Tracy Brabin for Batley and Spen.

  9. CMJ

    Seems a wise choice. Actors can sound convincing, regardless of who wrote the script.

  10. @ToH

    “Just one point of correction, I don’t drink Horlicks, but they do pay my generous pension
    Can’t see me going to bed early tonight, too much to celebrate.”

    ——————

    Yes things do seem to be going your way at the moment, much to celebrate: the GE, EU ref and now the cricket. Don’t worry about the Horlicks, there’s still time to get into it.

    Things not going so well for me what with storage taxes and what’s been happening to Sterling but I like to look on the bright side and at least my cricket team escaped relegation late on.

  11. @Somerjohn – “I see our new dynamic relationship with the rest of the world is getting off to a flying start:

    “MG has announced it is to stop making cars at its Longbridge plant and will be moving production to China – ending manufacturing in the UK.

    The firm said vehicle assembly was no longer “required” and cars would arrive “fully built ready for distribution”.”

    Been away and missed quite a bit, but I did pick up some news that a specialist recruitment agency was being asked to work on securing skilled designers for the motor manufacturing industry to set up R&D establishments in Eastern Europe, relocating from the UK. They were looking for Eastern Europeans as well as inviting UK staff to move, and the reports suggest that 4 manufacturers are gearing up to shift their research bases from the UK following Brexit.

    Given that this kind of activity was meant to become the mainstay of the post Brexit economy, this is really quite serious, and it does begin to look like critical economic functions are starting to move out. If this does happen, at some point the markets will start to move, and the UK’s record current account deficit will become a crisis.

    I don’t really think we’ve begun to see the real Brexit impact yet.

  12. One of the interesting things about the Middlesex v Yorkshire match was that it was effectively a 40 over game in the context of the Championship. So as ToH pointed out, the fielding side could spread, making the target less easy than I, for one, thought. But the big difference was that because of the nature of the match, the bowlers were trying to take wickets. One of the things I don’t like about the one day game is that the bowlers spray it everywhere and rarely aim at the stumps.

    Which, to coin a phrase, is just not cricket.

  13. @Oldnat

    I thought the other Lady (Friends of the Earth campaigner) might be better on policy, as that has been her professional bread and butter.

    I wasn’t there so I don’t know!

  14. @ALEC

    “I don’t really think we’ve begun to see the real Brexit impact yet.”

    Well, bless my cotton socks, I never knew that!!

  15. @OLDNAT

    You have to feel a bit sorry for Boris, don’t you. He was never a serious Brexiteeer – his heart wasn’t in it, despite all the Churchillian rhetoric. And now he is lumbered with trying to keep Britain in the single market in the full knowledge that it will mean internal war in the Tory party.

  16. Good article on the likely Brexit negotiations:

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-article-50-european-union-theresa-may-2016-9

    It looks like the only Brexit wil be a hard Brexit. This will mean a VERY rough ride for the economy. Fasten your seat belts.

  17. The Green party has nominated Bernie Sanders’ brother Larry to contest the Eitney by-election!

    Just goes to show the enduring power of the anglosphere. Bernie’s brother is a Britiish citizen and contesting elections to Parliament. Trump is obsessed with his Scottish connections (via his gaelic-speaking Scottish mother). And Hillary named her daughter Chelsea because she and Bill were in London when they were trying for a child.

  18. That should say Witney not Eitney

  19. Prof Howard/Oldnat,

    ““I wonder if the Conservatives might win more MPs than Labour in Scotland next time out. Wouldn’t that be an amazing thing”

    Not really as they both currently have one each.

    All it takes for this “amazing” thing is Labour to lose their one, which I recall was a narrow victory anyway, or the Tories to hold the one they have and get the one they came closest to winning the last time.

    Peter.

  20. Alec,

    “If this does happen, at some point the markets will start to move, and the UK’s record current account deficit will become a crisis.”

    Not necessarily.

    It would be bad for manufacturing if the high end R&D work went abroad, especially if it meant we ended up just assembling other people’s designs, but London is still the centre of European finance, so if all this is being backed by city money and it works, the profits on the deal could still eventually at least in part flow back to the treasury.

    I can certainly see a situation wher Brexit is bad for manufacturing and we see more industrial production moving abroad but where the UK’s overseas earnings go up.

    That fits in with what I think is the most likely outcome, us doing marginally worse off in the long run outside the Single Market than in it.

    It’s a bit like my earlier car argument. I checked the figures and the U.K. Car market is roughly balanced. We make and buy about 2m cars a year but the balance is about 30/70.

    We sell 30% of our cars domestically and export 70% while 70% of cars bought here are imported.

    Over time being outside the EU with some sort of barriers I’d expect it to drop slightly to say 1.8m. Not a disaster by any means but not quite as great as today. We would still however see sales of 2m, we wouldn’t be 200k cars short.

    What that means that say 900k of the 2m sold would be UK made 40%, with 60% imported but our exports would make up 50% of productioN.

    In other words we would still have a strong competitive car industry making quality products, it would just be slightly smaller than it would otherwise have been and more reliant on a healthy domestic market than a health European one, although you could argue that a 50/50 split between domestic and overseas markets was a better balance that 30/70.

    Peter.

  21. Peter Cairns
    Those are very precise predictions about the car industry. They don’t seem unreasonable guesses but that’s all they are.

  22. @CANDY

    “Just goes to show the enduring power of the anglosphere.”

    Sorry, but your attempts to revive the British Empire won’t end in success. Trump’s paternal line is German and most white Americans have very mixed European ancestry these days.

    The Sanders are Jewish family – not Anglo-Saxon.

  23. @Tancred

    Yet Trump is very engaged with Scotland and his Scottish roots, but ignores Germany. And Sanders’ brother emigrated to good old Blighty, not to Israel. Are you seriously suggesting that someone who is of jewish descent can’t choose to belong to the anglosphere? Seriously?

    The Atlantic covers 20% of the earth’s surface and the Americans and Canadians are on the other side of it, yet our politics is closely connected to theirs. whereas the channel is only 20 miles across from Dover, yet the French may as well be on the moon for all the connection we have with them.

  24. CARFREW

    Sorry things not so good for you but happy your team (Lancs?) escaped relegation to Div2.

    Millie

    I agree, I’m not a fan of one day cricket for similar reasons. I really only enjoy Test and County cricket.

    Alec

    “I don’t really think we’ve begun to see the real Brexit impact yet.”

    Of course not, we will see a number of negative effects on the economy as we progress through the Brexit negotiations. Most thoughtful Brexitiers knew that when they voted to leave. We are more interested in the medium and longer term when we believe there will be positive effects.

    Peter Cairns SNP

    Your post to Alec, I don’t totally agree but very reasoned I thought.

  25. PeteB,

    Well they may look precise, but I am really only saying a 10% drop in the industries output over the next ten years if we have new barriers to our largest market isn’t unreasonable.

    Whenever you start with a figure as an illustration it can give an impression of precision that isn’t really intended.

    It was really sort of to illustrate price elasticity.

    If it was for example 1, then a 10% rise in price relative to the competition, an not unreasonable guess should result in a 10% fall in sales, which would be about 200k a year.

    Costs might go up by less than 10% when we leave the single market and elasticity could be under 1, so it might be less than 100k, but as I vainly tried to explain to TOH, it’s not despondency it’s economics.

    Again as I pointed out I didn’t refute the Civitas report, although they are no Faser of Allander, let alone IFS, I just pointed out that it took to narrow a focus looking a bilateral trade between individual countries in a multinational open market.

    Of course we could see it grow 10% too but if the overall Single Market grew by more than that, which might well be the case if Eastern European incomes continue to rise, we would still have declined as a share of Europe wide manufacturing.

    We would make more cars than today but have lost market share in a larger market.

    That would keep both sides happily moaning at each over, Brexiteers would point to increased production as success, Remoaners to falling share as failure, with both sides claiming the differences were more important than they are.

    I just don’t think we are in that strong a negotiating position because overall trade in the Single Market is so much bigger than trade with us and that inter market trade will grow as the EU does.

    Peter.

  26. Peter Cairns

    The car industry production and sales figures aren’t as balanced as you suggest.

    UK 2016 YTD car production to the end of August was 1,132,727, of which 77.5% was for export.

    UK 2016 YTD car sales to the end of August were 1,680,799.

    These are SMMT figures. They don’t publish import penetration, but doing the sums from the above, of those YTD car sales, 254,864 were UK produced, for a 15.2% market share.

    Your conclusion that “that means that say 900k of the 2m sold would be UK made 40%, with 60% imported but our exports would make up 50% of productioN.” is therefore a bit rosy.

    Apart from starting from a much lower base of 15% penetration, sales of UK-built cars will be constrained by the small number of mass manufacturers producing here: Nissan, JLR, Toyota, Honda and GM. And, apart from JLR, they produce only a partial range here (just one Astra variant, in the case of GM). It isn’t credible to see a massive market shift towards these brands, with the likes of Ford, Volkswagen/Audi/Skoda/Seat, Hyundai, Kia, Fiat, Renault, BMW, Mercedes, Mazda, Volvo fading away. Nor is it feasible that any manufacturer would open a new plant here just to serve the isolated UK market.

    Sadly, the more logical conclusion is that the ending of car assembly by MG, in favour of importing built-up cars from China, is a bellwether. If UK car plants face a 10% tariff into their current EU markets (under hard Brexit/WTO conditions), they will face a very uncertain future. (JLR may be an exception, with more sales to non-EU markets, but even they are opening a new plant in Slovakia next year. Good forward planning!)

  27. @Peter Cairns – “…but London is still the centre of European finance..”

    It is, but may not stay as so. A hard bargain will be struck if UK wants to keep the financial passporting, with the Germans more than happy to scupper this. I suspect finance is actually where we will see the biggest hit.

  28. ALEC

    @” I suspect finance is actually where we will see the biggest hit.”

    I like analysts who try to examine the detail. Ed Conway, in yesterday’s Times did-and he comes to a different conclusion to you as a result.
    Reproduced in The Australian which doesn’t seem to be paywalled :-

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/london-to-take-brexit-in-its-stride/news-story/0518d1bd896118c12aa6746375555510

  29. Ooops-it is!

    You’ll just hjave to get a copy of yesterday’s Times :-)

    The info on Passporting is worth the read.

  30. Somerjohn,

    Well thanks for looking in more detail than I had, I just used a ballpark figure for illustration. Thought I can’t think where I got my figure of 40% from.

    However if we take an assumption of around 1m made, 25% sold domestically and 75% exported with the majority to the Single Market then EU sales accounts for 50% of UK production.

    It goes without saying that we don’t account for anything like 50% of EU car production or indeed exports, so although the UK is a significant market compared to the single market it’s far less important.

    I would still expect the effects of less open trade to work through so on your figures, which are clearly more up to date than mine, I think if our exports fall but so do imports as EU made cars would also get more expensive, so we could move towards something more like an increase in domestic production and an increase in share of domestic sales.

    Something like sales of 1.8m and production of 1.2m with UK made cars rising to 360k over a decade, about 20% of sales and 30% of production.

    All vindication of the Brexiteers view of a better future outwith the EU.

    Problem is we would be exporting about 840k instead of 900k now and still importing 1.45m or more as we are today, while the EU market probably expanded by more than ours.

    So in a UK context it would look good and be a vindication of Brexit, on a EU and export basis we would be losing overall sales and market share.

    As to the rest of the world, short of a permanently depressed pound I can’t see us making inroads against the likes of the Germans or Japanese even with free trade deals with the likes of Australia.

    Alec,

    I have no doubt the EU and the Germans and French in particular would want to steal Londons crown for Frankfurt and Paris, but I don’t think it will happen.

    My view is that it will be like the car illustration above, it will continue to grow and be at the centre of the U.K. Economy. Not only that I think it’s share of the economy will grow at the expense of manufacturing making us more imbalanced.

    As I’ve pointed out repeatedly as long as the city can make more money, more easily, with less risk, trading things than making them it will.

    Where you are right is that we will lose relative position and work will move elsewhere into Single Market countries. London however will still dominate….but not quite so much.

    Again both sides will be happy, Brexiteers will see the city still do well and grow and it will still be the biggest, which as they see it through the eyes as the UK against Germany France or whoever will be a vindication.

    Remoaners will look at the shift in trade and market share and the growth of others and see it as a step backwards which in European terms it will be, proving to them that Brexit was a mistake.

    But again it won’t be the Gold Age or Melt Down either side was predicting.
    No bag either way just a bit of a whimper.

    Peter.

  31. Curse of the spell checker…

    “No Bag” started as ” No Big Bang!”

    Colin’s post fits, although the Times wouldn’t be giving it prominence if it didn’t like it .

    Quoting the Times, quoting the Australian, quoting something it and you want to here, is a bit like Tony Blair getting an American Lawyer to say Britain can go to War.

    If you have to look hard to find the answer you want, you will find it, even if it isn’t there!

    Still it fits the narrative, no disaster for the city, but overall no victory either as it will probably lose out marginally in the long run.

    Brexiteers will herald it, Remoaners will… Well moan. Increasingly most will just yawn.

    Peter.

  32. Morning Colin

    I’m still recovering from celebrating the cricket yesterday. Can’t get behind that paywall but i imagine it’s saying the same thing as a number of other reports on the subject. We will have to see who is correct about the city as Brexit develops.

    Nice to see Peter Cairns is a lot more balanced today about Brexit in some of his posts although he still has to pot at reports he dose not agree with..

    I quite like his “But again it won’t be the Gold Age or Melt Down either side was predicting.
    No bag either way just a bit of a whimper.”

    I’m more positive than that but he might be right.

  33. TOH

    Yes-a very interesting article if you can find it-of course if your believe that The Dirty Digger writes every piece of copy then you will be hard pressed to remain objective-even if you agree with it !!! :-)

    What people forget about The City is that it represents a pool of excellence & expertise built up over many years, ans-as Ed Conway reminds us-so far from being hampered by red tape & regulation, has built expertise around & because of it !

  34. Peter Cairns

    I’m afraid you’re going to have to bear with me on my specialist subject (my CV includes EIU report writing on the automotive industry).

    The figures I was quoting are year to date, i.e. first 8 months. The equivalent annual figures are approx 2.6m sales, 1.75m production.

    So your assumption of 1m production, rising to 1.2m, implies a massive hit to UK production, consistent with the closure of one or more plants and rundown of others (off the top of my head, current production figures are around 580k each for Nissan and JLR, 200k for Mini, 175k for Toyota, 120k for Honda and 50k for GM). And an annual market dropping from 2.6 to 1.8m implies a massive economic contraction.

    All of which may come to pass, but good luck with spinning that as a “vindication of the Brexiteers view of a better future outwith the EU”.

    But the key point is whether individual plants remain viable outside the single market. In the short term, it’s usually cheaper to keep production going at plants that are up-to-date and efficient, and accept the hit of tariffs, than to shift production. Especially when exchange rate movements cancel out the tariff. But it’s different in the medium term (3-6 years), when the effect of investment and production decisions taken in the next 12 months kick in.

    Will any of the ‘transplant’ car producers commit to single-sourcing any future EU-market model to a UK plant? Hard to see it, when exchange rate volatility is added to the tariff risk. Far safer to add capacity in one of the low-cost countries like Slovakia.

    Even JLR, which is best placed to weather Brexit, doesn’t look as good a prospect for UK manufacturing as it appears at first sight. Increasingly, it will serve ROW markets from plants in China and India, and the EU from Slovakia, leaving the UK to supply the UK and North America, plus other markets with some models.

    But I can hold out one ray of light to Brexiters. Maybe Jaguar can grow its UK sales massively by grabbing market share from the German premium brands (Audi, BMW and Mercedes have a collective UK market share of nearly 20%, Jaguar under 1%).

    I think there’s a very real prospect that, post hard Brexit, UK car production will steadily dwindle. However, that’s not to say that R&D won’t remain here, as we have real strengths and there are no tariffs on intellectual property. A bit like Dyson: the brains are here, the production goes where it’s cheapest.

  35. TOH,

    My position hasn’t moved an inch, I challenged your rosy outlook for evidence and you provided little.

    The Civitas report as I’ve stated had to narrow a focus and didn’t give a complete picture and I’ve explained y in detail. If you think my criticism is unfair or unwarranted then say why.

    If you think EU car manufactures won’t try to take advantage of any change that will impact on UK exports to the EU, justify it.

    If you can find a flaw in my argument then show it, don’t just claim I am disagreeing because I don’t like it. A fact on it’s own is a lonely thing and we need context, a report that focuses on bilateral trade balances without looking at the multilateral market it is part of lacks context and gives a false picture.

    If you think that is incorrect say why.

    I’ve challenged both sides in this argument; your unsubstantiated optimism and liking for selectively clipping from rebuttles to make them appear as concessions, Colin’s cut and paste from sources he likes, Tancreds acid tone and snide comments about everything and anything he disagrees with and his tendency to dig himself into holes when his more tenuous arguments are put to the test.

    I am the one on the stead course not you.

    Peter.

  36. Turnout in Labour Leadership contest – 77% (BBC)

  37. Peter Cairns SNP

    What a pity, back to your normal rather touchy self.

    “I am the one on the stead course not you.”

    We are both on steady courses Peter, we disagree but each have a right to an opinion and mine is as unchanged as yours.

    “don’t just claim I am disagreeing because I don’t like it”

    Sorry you don’t like it but I will continue to post that I disagree when I do. If I’m feeling like it I will give detailed reasons, if I’m not I won’t bother. As I said to Somerjohn this is not a 6th form debating society, I gave that up nearly 60 years ago. I was actually trying to be pleasant to you but no problem I can stop doing that. If you don’t like my posts I give you the same advice I gave a couple of others, don’t bother reading them.

    The only arbiter of what is posted here is AW, he has let us have great latitude recently which in some ways is a pity, as a blog it tends to be at it’s best when we restrict ourselves to polling matters and details.

    Enjoy the rest of your day.

  38. Although it would undoubtedly be a big hit in the short term, I’ve been wondering if the loss of London’s position as a financial centre wouldn’t be a good thing. Our economy has been badly skewed (geographically as well as sectorally) by the emphasis on making money rather than things (I include ideas and information in “things”).

  39. Labour Leadership contest result (official):

    Jeremy Corbyn 61.8%
    Owen Smith 38.2%

  40. Iin 2015 Corbyn won 59.5% -but that was in the context of a four way contest. Had preferences been redistributed he would have ended up with 65% or 67% depending on whether the runner -up was Burnham or Cooper. There has then some swing against Corbyn compared with 2015 on a like for like basis.

  41. Graham

    Not really any swing away from Jeremy when so many have been excluded from the vote. But a nice attempt at spin

  42. Corbyn vs Smith

    Members 168,216/116,960
    Registered supporters 84,918/36,599
    Affiliated supporters 60,075/39,670

    Quite an interesting breakdown.

  43. Somerjohn,

    “So your assumption of 1m production, rising to 1.2m, implies a massive hit to UK production.”

    That assumption was made on your figure of just over 1 m being the annual figure not 8 months, so if the true annual figure will be about 1.75m my idea of a marginal increase would be about 2m our just under.

    You really can’t quote me a figure and then when I estimate on that quote a larger figure and challenge my estimate based on the figure you’ve now refuted.

    Our roughly 16% share of that 1.75m would be about 270k which if it went to 20% of near 2m so it could rise to over 380k, while still diminishing as a share of overall European car production, which was the whole point regardless of the exact figures used.

    Trade barriers between trading partners reduce demand and lead to substitution, Civitas took those partners as the UK and individual EU states, I think of it as the UK and the EU as a whole.

    I think you are right that in the longer term, though not a disaster, not being in the Single Market is bad for our car industry.

    As well as the factors you mention for manufactures the same trends will effect the huge wider pan European supply chain. I think another factor in the EU’s favour as the single market deepens will be more open competition and common pricing.

    If it’s the same Fiat 500 priced in the same currency, it’s hard to sell it for €1k more in Belgium when people can just nip across and buy it in France or Germany.

    The trend for the next decade will be for more production closer to the consumers and in EU terms that’s the East, not the UK. Brexit will just add to it a bit not reverse it.

    TOH,

    “If I’m feeling like it I will give detailed reasons, if I’m not I won’t bother. ”

    That line convinces nobody, you don’t give detailed reasons because you can’t.

    If you could you’d do so with the same obvious relish as you do when you dismiss others out of hand.

    Others here make arguments, you just make statements.

    “As I said to Somerjohn this is not a 6th form debating society, I gave that up nearly 60 years ago.”

    I suspect you did for the same reason you do now, your inability to back up your own assertions convincingly.

    I am at odds on some points with Somerjohn and we have disagreements, but at least I have an idea where he’s coming from.

    It’s like a Maths exam, it’s as much about knowing they got the answer correctly by looking at their working as just seeing the answer and wondering, with you, if they just guessed, or like Colin, they copied someone else’s answer because they thought it looked right.

    Peter.

  44. I’m sure it will be spun as a massive endorsement, but it’s really just as-you-were.

    Corbyn’s party vote only went up 40k. This is approximately the amount that party votes went up overall, presumably reflecting new members being Corbyn supporters.

    What really surprised me is that support for Corbyn from registered supporters went down from 84% to 70%, despite an increase in the total number of votes by 16k. If you moved the 40k increase in membership votes back into this column, it’s still only 77% Corbyn.

    Total vote in affiliated supporters went up a little, but the proportions stayed roughly the same.

    Overall, there seems to have been no real movement since last year, expect that Labour supporters are *less* likely to support Corbyn. One might supposed that the eligibility issue might have had a small effect (although I suspect most members who missed the cutoff will likely have registered as supporters, and only 4k supporters were actively “purged”), so overall there seems to have been pretty much no movement.

    The party remains horribly split down the middle. Corbyn has convinced no-one, and his supporters remains as convinced/confident/deluded* as before. I see the clean slate lasting 24h.

    (delete as applicable)

  45. So, Corbyn had
    59% of members
    70% of supporters
    60.2% of affiliated members.

  46. Here is a polling on the LP leadership election. I don’t know if it could be called exit poll. But it has regional breakdowns. I know people like playing with crossbreaks.

    http://election-data.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Exit_compare_results.xlsx

  47. Robin

    Nice spin

  48. I did the numbers, and under the old electoral college system Smith would have won with between 55.9% and 54.9% (difficult to tell precisely because we don’t know how MPs would have voted, I’ve provided the figures from 18 pro-Corbyn MP votes to 25 pro-Corbyn MP votes). Corbyn would have needed 60 MP votes, given the members and affiliates, to win under the old system, which he probably wouldn’t have got.

    Not really new news, because Burnham would have been the leader from 2015 under the old system, but I guess interesting for cross-year comparisons.

  49. Top hat

    But the electoral college system was abolished because it produced too much of a left wing result!!

  50. @CR

    The fact is that despite Corbyn’s apparent popularity leading to a massive increase in membership (190k increase in eligible members, i.e. *before* the cutoff date), he only got 40k more votes, while the non-Corbyn vote dropped slightly (7k).

    It doesn’t speak to anyone changing their minds, does it?

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