I’ve been tied up with boundary changes and having a birthday at the weekend, so this is just a quick post to catch up with some of the voting intention and Scottish Independence polling I’ve missed. Looking at Westminster voting first, I’ve updated the voting intention on the sidebar to include all the latest figures. Overall the Conservative party’s lead remains strong – most polls still have the Tories at around 40% and Labour around 30%.

The two most recent polls, from YouGov and Ipsos MORI, both showed the Tory lead falling a bit – YouGov had a lead of 7 points (down from 11), MORI a lead of 6 points (down from 11). In the case of YouGov, this is actually within the normal range of their recent polling (they had the Tory lead at 7 and 8 points in August too) and the MORI poll is probably at least partially a reversion to the mean after an anomalously high 45% score for the Tories their previous poll. Nevertheless, it may be a sign of Theresa May’s honeymoon continuing to fade.

Two years on from the Indyref we’ve also seen a handful of new polls on Scottish independence. The last time I wrote about polling on Scottish independence was at the end of July. Back then we had seen a couple of polls from Survation and Panelbase taken immediately after the EU Referendum that appeared to show a shift in favour of Scottish independence, but a YouGov poll taken a few weeks later showing no apparent change. We’ve had several more Scottish polls since then, including more recent polls from Survation and Panelbase, as well as polls from TNS and Ipsos MORI. The picture now looks very clear, showing NO ahead with no obvious net movement towards Yes as a result of the EU referendum (though as John Curtice points out there has been churn under the surface). MORI show NO five points ahead, Survation, Panelbase and TNS all have NO six points ahead.


464 Responses to “Catching up on voting intention and Scottish Independence”

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  1. Some interesting by-election results this week:
    – Two good gains for Labour from the Tories (Warwickshire and Cumbria)
    – Two good gains for Lib Dems, one each from Labour (Cardiff) and Tories(Devon)
    – A gain for Labour from SNP
    – A gain for PC from Independent
    – a couple of Tory holds (Oxfordshire and Nothamptonshire)
    – a Labour hold (Gateshead)
    – still one to come (Suffolk – currently Tory)

    Another good week for Lib Dems, but a surprisingly decent showing by Labour…

  2. Thanks Fat Ron, that’s v interesting.

  3. TOH,

    “So the gloom and doom masters continue even when presented with clear alternative views from a reputable source.”

    Predictable as ever.

    You post something I disagree with, I post my arguments why it isn’t as simple as you suggest and you post some guff about;

    “Doing down Britain!”

    There is nothing “Gloom & Doom” or “Unpatriotic” about noting that if;

    U.K. trade into the single market falls, the slack will probably be largely taken up by other members of the Single Market!

    Germany accounts for about half of the EU’s car exports and sells more to the UK than we do to them.

    If trade between the UK and the EU in cars falls, then there will be an element of Import substitution in both and I suspect more UK made cars will be bought in the UK.

    At present I think we buy less than a third of UK built cars and export the rest with the EU by far the largest market.

    We could see that change to 50/50, but I am not sure the Industry would grow, particularly because three of our biggest manufactures, Vauxhall (GM/Fiat), Nissan/Renault and Mini (BMW) built here with most of their production geared to EU exports.

    It could grow but I suspect a bigger share of a smaller UK output would be more likely given we are so geared to exporting into the Single Market.

    Logic, not a lack of “Belief in Britain” dictates that if UK exports of cars into the single market fall because of Brexit, as the largest manufacturer of cars in Europe, German is best placed to fill the gap.

    Indeed it could well be that the volume of cars they sell to replace UK ones, across the single market, would be greater than the value of the loss of exports to the UK.

    That’s no Despondency…it’s Economics!

    Peter.

  4. @SOMERJOHN

    I think the UK’s reputation in Europe is now at its lowest ebb since the Boer War (another loony idea). Before long we’ll be rank only second to Russia as the most hated nation in Europe.

  5. BIGFATRON
    A gain for Labour from SNP

    Thanks for the heads-up. I had forgotten that North Lanarkshire Council’s Coatbridge North and Glenboig ward by-election was due. It should be noted, of course, that it’s a four-member STV ward, so with only one vacancy the by-election operated as though it was AV. In the 2012 elections it elected 2 Lab and 2 SNP councillors in the ward and Lab got an overall majority on the council.

    So far, the Council have only published the first preferences:
    Lab 1350, SNP 1261, Con 366, SGP 195, UKIP 63

    The full transfer information should be available later today to be able to see where the minor party votes went.

    See http://www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=32727

  6. Tancred,

    “Before long we’ll be rank only second to Russia as the most hated nation in Europe.”

    Utter rubbish, our relationship with the EU will change and We will loose some influence across the continent but we have been semidetached for a long time.
    Something radical and completely unexpected would need to happen before we were looked on as anything other than what we are; a major and indeed leading Western Democracy.

    I may have voted Remain , but I am no more going to put up with you comparing the UK’s standing with the likes of Rissia than letting Colin call Junckers a fanatic,

    Peter

  7. TOH: “So the gloom and doom masters continue even when presented with clear alternative views from a reputable source.”

    I was posting about how Brexit and the way we’re currently presenting ourselves might affect how others perceive Britain and the possible loss of goodwill.

    I’m not aware of anyone here mentioning “clear alternative views from a reputable source” on this topic, i.e. polling evidence on perceptions of Britain abroad. Could you cite your source?

  8. Lib Dems gain Hadleigh (Suffolk CC) from Tories.
    Tories lose control of Suffolk CC

    A very good night for Lib Dems then!

  9. I’m guessing until the Brexit terms are much clearer that public opinion on this matter will not change very much – indeed whilst so little has changed many people may conclude nothing much that matters will be changed in the longer term.

    We shall of course all see in due time but for some of use the due time may mean our time has runs out before the mystery is solved…

  10. BARBAZENZERO,

    If it goes with the norm, more LibDems and Tories will switch to Labour and more Greens to the SNP.

    Local by elections tend to be about local issues and local personalities, with low turnouts, but a higher proportion of those who go out to vote tend to be politically active so we are sort of seeing a pattern of “Unionist” block voting, but it’s not the key factor and I doubt it will be the deciding factor come May.

    Peter.

  11. Peter Cairns

    As usual, Tancred doesn’t do subtle, but nevertheless I do think there’s a likelihood of our reputation suffering, not just from Brexit itself but the loss of national gravitas following the clowning of Boris and others – a bit like Berlusconi’s impact on perceptions of Italy. And then there’s the apparent rise of anti-European thugs here, which is widely reported abroad. The Poles used to think they had a bit of a special relationship with us: I wonder why’s happened to Polish perceptions of Britain recently?

    And Tancred’s reference to the Boer war isn’t entirely inapposite. Before WW1, there was a widespread perception of Britain as a swaggering, arrogant colonialist bully-boy. It was how many Americans saw us, and I was reminded of this a couple of years ago in Boston. While studying the menu outside an Italian restaurant, a couple came out and said something like, “It’s really good, you should go in.”

    “Oh, thanks very much, I think we will,” I replied.

    “Where you guys from, Canada?”

    “No, Britain actually.”

    “Oh.” (face darkening) “Never forget we won the war.”

    “Ah. Well, we’re very grateful. But you left us on our own for the first two years, you know.”

    “No, no. 1776 when we whipped your asses.”

    I like to think he was joking.

  12. @Somerjohn

    >> “No, no. 1776 when we whipped your asses.”

    Elsewhere in Massachusetts, I was once in a choir which was quite happy to sing “The British Grenadier”. We also sang a song with some (very mild) Scots dialect. The chap sitting next to me found this unintelligible, and remarked, “It’s not English like King James would have spoken!” When I enquired as to which King James he meant, he said, “The one that wrote the King James Bible”.

    A short history lesson then ensued.

  13. Somerjohn/Alisdair,

    Long ago gave up trying to discuss almost anything with Americans. They are lovely people and it really is a great country but If you think people are partisan and overheated here, well;

    “You Ain’t Seen Nothin Yet!”

    I remember being involved in a few chats about the War on Terror on various sites and you couldn’t even suggest that the strategy might not work with within two or three posts someone typing in block capitals;

    “WHY DO YOU HATE AMERICA!”

    Peter.

  14. Candy

    They’ll deal with a hard Brexit by setting up regulatory offices in other european states while the bulk of the actual work will still be done in London.”

    I posted earlier in the thread an excerpt from a report by Moody’s. This is essentially what they said and further that whilst there will be some cost to the banks, it will not be the disaster some predict.

    TOH

    “Surprise, surprise”. Your post at 9.13

    Not to me, nor I suspect you.

  15. The Times/YouGov poll is now up.

    The damage of the summer has been done to the LP, although if you dig in the fractions, the charts exaggerate the effect.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/23/labours-losing-leave-voters/

  16. ROBERT NEWARK

    I’m sure it’s not a surprise any more than it was to me. However the normal suspects are still writing long screeds supporting the opposite view. Time will prove who is right of course. I really get fed up with those who cannot bare the thought of the UK having a successful Brexit, it’s all so negative.

    Hava a good day, the cricket is getting really tense although I think Somerset are the likely Champions.

  17. BARBAZENZERO,

    Political betting has the percentages for the Labour By Election win in North Lanarkshire;

    Coatbridge North & Glenboig first prefs:

    LAB: 41.7% (-11.3)
    SNP: 39.0% (+8.2)
    CON: 11.3% (+5.3)
    GRN: 6.0% (+6.0)
    UKIP: 1.9% (+1.9)

    Labour down most, SNP up most. I’d guess;

    Second Preference: Labour picking up more UKIP than the SNP making it something like 43% to 40%.

    Third Preference: SNP getting more from the Greens than Labour so closing the gap or leading, around 44%/44% and finally,

    Fourth Preference: Again more Tories (Holyrood main opposition) to Labour but not so much making as from UKIP to make it probably 53% to 47% in the end.

    Peter.

  18. TOH: “I really get fed up with those who cannot bare the thought of the UK having a successful Brexit, it’s all so negative.”

    What we cannot bear is the thought of the UK having a disastrous Brexit.

    But I suspect there are some for whom Brexit, however disastrous, is preferable to continued EU membership, however successful.

    What I get really fed up with is those who think Britain is so feeble it cannot take advantage of the wonderful opportunities offered by EU membership. It’s all so negative.

  19. PS, TOH, I see you haven’t yet responded to this:

    I’m not aware of anyone here mentioning “clear alternative views from a reputable source” on this topic, i.e. polling evidence on perceptions of Britain abroad. Could you cite your source?

  20. Ironic that it might be the Tories that end up hammering the City of London.

    Still can’t see it happening though.

  21. @TOH

    I think there is little hope of Somerset lifting the title. Middlesex have just inexplicably made an insanely generous declaration.

    Yorkshire looking very good now.

  22. Millie
    I wonder what the Middlesex captain was promised?

  23. “You seem to think that the 6th greatest economy in the World has no clout in negotiation, and that we are dependent on what few titbits the EU and the rest of the World might throw us.”

    ———–

    Soz to come in on this convo, and yes, I do think we have clout, but at present Brexit means synth prices have gone up which obviously is not good if you need to buy synths. When will this much-celebrated clout sort out synth prices, please?

  24. “Middlesex have just inexplicably made an insanely generous declaration.”

    ————

    240 from 40 overs, very doable, but at six an over on a final day pitch not a cakewalk. Peeps not given to following county cricket might find now a good time to start. Even if synths remain expensive…

  25. I see our new dynamic relationship with the rest of the world is getting off to a flying start:

    “MG has announced it is to stop making cars at its Longbridge plant and will be moving production to China – ending manufacturing in the UK.

    The firm said vehicle assembly was no longer “required” and cars would arrive “fully built ready for distribution”.

    (BBC)

  26. SOMERJOHN

    I would have thought by now that you would have gathered I’m much more interested in the cricket than i am continuing a dialogue with you which frankly will be fruitless for both of us. You act as though your in some 6th form debating society. Get a life.

    Carfrew,

    Yorks 40-2 pf 10 overs, interesting.

  27. CARFREW

    Yorks 65-3 need 177 of 24 overs at 7.12 runs per over. Not sure it’s that silly a declaration.

  28. @TOH

    Yep, v. Interesting indeed. Wish Catman was around to share in the excitement. Anyways, off to watch the pound fluctuate!!!…

  29. For these change figures to make sense someone who stood last time must not be standing this time…am I right? Who was it? That info would be helpful in understanding the result.

    LAB: 41.7% (-11.3)
    SNP: 39.0% (+8.2)
    CON: 11.3% (+5.3)
    GRN: 6.0% (+6.0)
    UKIP: 1.9% (+1.9)

  30. TOH: “Get a life.”

    I see you’ve mastered teenage argot.

    I’m not the poster on here who has highlighted your preference for dodging awkward points rather than answering them. But I can see why you prefer watching cricket (and pontificating unchallenged, with an approving chorus) to engaging in political debate.

  31. SOMERJOHN

    There is no point in answering your posts, you won’t accept any reasoned argument and as I’ve said get a life,

    Carfrew
    Bresnan playing out of his socks again but still very tight.

  32. @Somerjohn

    Well it is a nail biter…
    Run rate up to 8.2 an over.
    An’ Middx haven’t won it for Aeons…

  33. @ToH

    Can Bres save the day again? Finn bowling very well though…

  34. Bres has gone, brilliant effort from him. How will it go? 153-5.

  35. PROFHOWARD
    For these change figures to make sense someone who stood last time must not be standing this time…am I right?

    The by-election is because a councillor won a seat as an MSP in May and stood down from the council.

    It’s a 4 member ward in a Council which had a Lab overall majority in 2012, so SNP were reasonably lucky to get 2 of the seats with Lab getting the other 2 in 2012.

    If it demonstrates anything, it probably shows that at least some Con unionists are still willing to give their transfers to Lab.

  36. Carfrew

    Gale gone as well now, 80 to win , 4 wickets to get, brilliant.

  37. 80 runs needed off eight overs, ten an over, and Gale just gone too…Things looking up for Howards…

    Exchange rate still rubbish tho’…

  38. @ Laszlo
    The Times/YouGov poll is now up.
    Lots of support for my contention that people vote against what they don’t want, rather than for what they do want.

  39. CARFREW

    Great day for Middlesex fans, match ends with a Roland-Jones hat trick. When you said it was a rubbish declaration i think you were probably thinking 20/20 games, but of course in the Championship the field can go where you want it.

    Tough for Somerset, they played a blinder at the end of the season just to be pipped at the post. Off to celebrate, enjoy you evening all.

  40. Well, as I said earlier, what an inspired and clever declaration…

  41. DAVE @ Laszlo
    The Times/YouGov poll is now up.

    I’m guessing that’s the one here:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/23/labours-losing-leave-voters/

    AW will probably have a thread on it soon, but a link is always useful.

  42. @ToH

    Erm, I rather defended the declaration!! But yep, well done Middx, and thrilling end to the season. We need to know the impact on sterling tho’…

  43. YouGov poll:

    Con 39
    Lab 30
    Ukip 13
    LD 8
    Grn 4
    The 9% Tory lead compares with 6.6% in May 2015 so implies a Lab to Con swing of 1.2% over that period.However, the crossbreaks show a big 8% swing from Lab to Con in Scotland – which implies that the pro-Tory swing in England & Wales is just 0.6%! That would lead to six Tory gains from Labour – without taking any account of any first time incumbency bonus enjoyed by five of the Labour MPs concerned.

  44. @MILLIE

    “Well, as I said earlier, what an inspired and clever declaration…”

    ——–

    Not to worry, Howard thinks it was me who rubbished it anyway!! Confusion understandable, prolly been an exciting, tiring day for him: we’ll have to send him to bed with his horlicks soon!!

    Anyways. Somerset are up there, so maybe next season…

  45. I wonder if the Conservatives might win more MPs than Labour in Scotland next time out.

    Wouldn’t that be an amazing thing?

  46. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    “Utter rubbish, our relationship with the EU will change and We will loose some influence across the continent but we have been semidetached for a long time.
    Something radical and completely unexpected would need to happen before we were looked on as anything other than what we are; a major and indeed leading Western Democracy.”

    Really? Don’t kid yourself.

    “I may have voted Remain , but I am no more going to put up with you comparing the UK’s standing with the likes of Russia than letting Colin call Junckers a fanatic,
    Peter”

    Pompous git.

  47. Carfrew

    Sorry to mix you up, as you say all too exciting, and my commiserations to Millie.

    Just one point of correction, I don’t drink Horlicks, but they do pay my generous pension

    Can’t see me going to bed early tonight, too much to celebrate.

    :-)

  48. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    Wait until the next UK ‘nil point’ at the next Eurovision Song Contest, which is a good barometer of national popularity as the voting is all political these days.

    So we are a major western democracy? I never said we weren’t. But being a democracy does not make you perfect, and certainly not popular – the USA is hated in many parts of the world.

  49. Millie

    As a Glamorgan supporter I would love to have seen Matt Maynard and Somerset win the title. I didn’t much like the contrived nature of the Middlesex declaration. I thought the Middlesex declaration was a generous one though. The problem was that Yorkshire were going to keep swinging rather than that out for a draw. A real shame for Somerset.

    Pete B

    Sorry Pete but I cannot agree with your view of Tory efficiency over their leadership campaign. For a start Cameron had assured the electorate he would serve a full term. He lasted little over a year. Then the leadership favourite in Johnson was stabbed in the back.
    We then had Leadsom feebly withdrawing from the leadership race because of a weekend of mildly tough press coverage the like of which is nothing compared to what Corbyn has had go deal with for a year.

    So shambolic,traiterous and feeble would be more appropriate adjrctivesvrsther than “efficient’ by default.

  50. The word ‘bat’ was missing from my last post…apols

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