I’ve been tied up with boundary changes and having a birthday at the weekend, so this is just a quick post to catch up with some of the voting intention and Scottish Independence polling I’ve missed. Looking at Westminster voting first, I’ve updated the voting intention on the sidebar to include all the latest figures. Overall the Conservative party’s lead remains strong – most polls still have the Tories at around 40% and Labour around 30%.

The two most recent polls, from YouGov and Ipsos MORI, both showed the Tory lead falling a bit – YouGov had a lead of 7 points (down from 11), MORI a lead of 6 points (down from 11). In the case of YouGov, this is actually within the normal range of their recent polling (they had the Tory lead at 7 and 8 points in August too) and the MORI poll is probably at least partially a reversion to the mean after an anomalously high 45% score for the Tories their previous poll. Nevertheless, it may be a sign of Theresa May’s honeymoon continuing to fade.

Two years on from the Indyref we’ve also seen a handful of new polls on Scottish independence. The last time I wrote about polling on Scottish independence was at the end of July. Back then we had seen a couple of polls from Survation and Panelbase taken immediately after the EU Referendum that appeared to show a shift in favour of Scottish independence, but a YouGov poll taken a few weeks later showing no apparent change. We’ve had several more Scottish polls since then, including more recent polls from Survation and Panelbase, as well as polls from TNS and Ipsos MORI. The picture now looks very clear, showing NO ahead with no obvious net movement towards Yes as a result of the EU referendum (though as John Curtice points out there has been churn under the surface). MORI show NO five points ahead, Survation, Panelbase and TNS all have NO six points ahead.


464 Responses to “Catching up on voting intention and Scottish Independence”

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  1. Have travelled from Roscoff to Rosslare and Rosslare to Cherbourg in the last two weeks. Passports were demanded and examined at all three ports both embarking and disembarking. Never travelled the route to the uk, so can’t comment.

  2. How much evidence is there of illegal immigration via the RoI? I would have thought that a) few immigrants would think of taking that route b) that they would face a border check on entering the Republic anyway, and c) once you are in the RoI why bother going onwards to the British mainland?

  3. CR

    “once you are in the RoI why bother going onwards to the British mainland?”

    But surely it is a basic tenet of the anti-immigrant lobby, that not only is all of the world’s massive movement of peoples an attempt to get to England – but specifically to the house next door to them, their local hospitals, schools and transportation!

    Why would they be content at staying anywhere other than England? :-)

  4. Philip Sim of BBC Scotland has one some real journalism! Good on him.

    Turns out that the “fully autonomous SLab”‘s ability to have their own position on reserved powers is rather more limited than their spin have us believe.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37429104

    Just like any other Accounting Unit of the Labour Party, they can have their own conferences, pass their own motions (no matter how loose :-) ), but when it comes to how their MP votes on these issues, then there would be an internal debate to come up with a joint UK-wide policy, giving Ms Dugdale a chance to push her party’s position – “standing up for Scotland”, as she puts it.

    How much clout the Scottish party would have in such negotiations is of course debatable – especially given the fact it currently only has one MP, and a dwindling stock of MSPs.

    Perhaps the Twitter jibe that “fully autonomous” was a typo for “foolish automatons” has some substance. :-)

  5. PETER CAIRNS

    I don’t have any-though I think yours are very illuminating. They are all about the Institution.

    Much more interesting to me-and certainly more significant-will be things like changes in the Politics of Member State Parliaments & their Leadership ; Migration flows & Social cohesion, Youth Unemployment levels & Comparative GDP growth .

  6. This looks like an interesting Poll-but can’t find the detail-by Britain Thinks .

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/22/theresa-may-more-trusted-than-jeremy-corbyn-britains-key-issues-poll

    According to a different report it reveals that “Ending Britain’s EU budget contributions is the public’s top priority, with 81 per cent in favour.”

  7. Colin,

    “I don’t have any-though I think yours are very illuminating. They are all about the Institution.”

    No you really don’t have any thoughts do you, just gut reaction.

    You posted;

    ““Lets just agree to differ on how sustainable the European Union is.”

    And I replied with my predictions that it would be still be much as it is at the end of this decade and five years beyond, to which the reply from you, the person predicting it’s demises is;

    “Much more interesting to me-and certainly more significant-will be things like changes in the Politics of Member State Parliaments & their Leadership ; Migration flows & Social cohesion, Youth Unemployment levels & Comparative GDP growth ”

    Which amounts to nothing more than description of everyday politics.

    In the next ten years their will be changes in Our Politic, Parliaments and Leadership, Patterns of Migration, Pressures on Social Cohesion, Youth Unemployment Levels and GDP, both nationally and regionally.

    That’s not a logic for the collapse of the EU: it’s a statement of the bleeding obvious.

    Is that really the best you can come up with as an argument, the equivalent of;

    “Just You Wait and See, Things Will Change and then it will be different “.

    Whats your next killer line going to be;

    “My Dads Bigger than Your Dad!”

    Instead of just randomly posting links from anyone you can find who dislikes the EU as much as you do , if you really do believe it is going to collapse, rather than just hope so, match me1

    How, Where, Why, What and When?

    Peter.

  8. Peter Cairns SNP

    “But no answer from you was forthcoming. Like TM with The EU, your happy to proclaim “Brexit means Brexit” but you don’t actually have a plan.”

    Of course I don’t have a detailed plan, I know what I want, as Colin say’s we have voted to leave and it’s up to the Prime Minister and government to get on with it and negotiate our exit on the best terms possible while meeting expectations like no further payments to the EU, and control of our borders, the two highest expectations as Prof Curtis points out in his detailed analysis of peoples expectations about Brexit.

    Why you would expect me to have a detailed plan I really cannot understand. The Government asked me and millions like me a question, we gave a clear answer, the Government needs to get on and deliver. That’s what Governments are for.

    Finally as I shave said many times, if I was a member of the negotiating team there is no way I would give you an answer, that really is not the way to negotiate.

  9. Peter CairnsSNP

    “Oh and as ever I am interested in quality not quantity, so a steady stream of short congratulatory posts between you and your chums doesn’t cut it!”
    Peter.

    It seems I need to rpeat the following to you, a wonderful post from July.

    “It must be very satisfying to be so smug that you know everything, very gratifying to be head and shoulders above your opponents intellectually and morally, and very disappointing when your certain knowledge about the future constantly gets spiked by reality.”

  10. Peter Cairns SNP

    I have no predictions to make about the EU other than the one I have often made which is that in the end it will it will collapse because it has a currency which is not suitable for all the countries within the EU and does great harm to some, and the nationalistic sentiments within EU countries will bubble up especially if the EU continues to have very high unemployment and poor growth. This appears to be happening already with the rise of the far right in a number of countries. When will this happen, who knows, I think the last time I was pressed on it I suggested 30 years but that’s just a guess.

    Frankly I could not care less what happens to the EU, all I want is to be outside it. Time will do the rest.

  11. PETER CAIRNS

    Missed your pills this morning old bean?

    If you don’t like press reports about the continuing crises , political ineptitude & increasingly acrimonious disagreement in the EU-don’t read them.

    You think its all some sort of dastardly plot to make the EU look stupid-they are doing it themselves Peter.

    Its not a Religion you know ( yet) -we are allowed to have doubts .

    I can’t see how it can go on like this-but may your right-maybe thats just what it will do.

    In which case, what you loftily dismiss as “everyday politics.” will sort it out.
    And that may be very unpleasant-and you will be the first in the queue of pious platitudinous critics of the awful voters.

  12. I wouldn’t even be surprised if we rejoined the European Union given another 30 years when you look at the demographic splits. If age cohorts remain relatively consistent as they grow older, the electorate will be pro-EU in about 11 years. I have to say, the overwhelming feeling from my generation (Millennial) is one of contempt, sadly. There’s a lot of bile felt towards those who made a decision about something very unlikely to affect them. Myself, I put it down to people turning towards familiar things – Empire, Commonwealth, blue passports, white faces – when things like the recession happen and people start feeling insecure and worried, and I try not to hold too much resentment on account of that, but it can be quite difficult.

  13. The worst part is that it leads to Millennial apathy, because if you look at the turnout figures, the referendum was pretty stunning in that respect by the young – only very slightly less than those aged e.g. 40 to 54 (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/09/young-people-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high). The common sentiment seems to be “even when all of us turn out and do vote, we get ignored, because there’s more Boomers than there are Millennials, so why bother? what politician has the electoral incentive to listen to us even if we did make an effort?”. There’s a big political disconnect. That doesn’t mean people aren’t interested in politics – they are – but they have nothing but disdain for Westminster politics specifically.

  14. There’s a post awaiting moderation just before that last one, making it a little lacking in context. Not sure why it didn’t come through.

  15. Peter Cairns: But if you want to make it interesting, I am saying that firstly by 2020, but then as far out as 2025;
    1) No Country but the UK will leave the EU.
    2) At least one more Country will join the EU.
    3) No Country will be forced out of the Euro.
    4) At least one more Country will join the Euro.
    5) The Euro will still be a fully functioning currency.
    6) More central banks will still hold more Euros than Sterling.
    7) There will be more global trade in Euros than Sterling.
    What are you and TOH’s predictions.”

    I see there has been no substantive response to your challenge. So, in the spirit of filling a vacuum, or playing devil’s advocate, I’ve tried to put myself in the mindset of a Brexiter. The best I could come up with are these:

    1 & 3. In 2019, Greece will get into worsening economic difficulty, elect a “Syriza 2” government, leave the euro and be kicked out of the EU.

    2. Traditional Balkans bickering, corruption and authoritarianism will see Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania making little progress towards entering a EU increasingly chary of taking on flaky new members. (But hey, once Greece has gone, Macedonia should be on the golden pathway!)

    4, 5, 6 & 7. No more countries will join the euro because the eurozone will have collapsed by 2020.

    I’ve no idea if Colin, TOH, Candy et al will support these suggestions, but they seem in line with the logic of their posts.

    I will leave others to decide which set of forecasts is the more credible!

  16. Incidentally, while researching eurozone applicant countries for the post above, I came upon an interesting table of compliance with convergence criteria (i.e. the hurdles aspiring new members have to clear.

    Here are how Romania and the UK compare:

    1. Inflation (max 0.7%). Romania -1.3%, UK 0.1%

    2. Budget deficit to GDP (max 3%). Romania 0.7%, UK 4.4%

    3. Debt to GDP ratio (max 60%). Romania 38.4%, UK 89.2%

    And, although it’s not in the convergence criteria: annual GDP growth, to Jun 2016: Romania 6.0%, UK 2.2%.

    The relevance of this? Just that it makes it easier to see why there is such continuing enthusiasm for the EU amongst countries too often dismissed as basket cases by our home grown euroscetics

  17. Holyrood’s European and External Relations Committtee have a 7 page [PDF] briefing on Treaties, Devolution and Brexit available here.

    It’s part of today’s session on intergovernmental relations post-Brexit, with BBC live text coverage here.

  18. SOMERJOHN

    @”I see there has been no substantive response to your challenge”

    I had more than enough of the “My Guess is better than Your Guess” game during the Referendum Campaign thanks.

  19. Tophat

    Dont worry about the boomers, they will die off eventually

  20. CR

    In the upcoming Boomer Vs. Millennial civil war?

  21. It’s very interesting to see that even the ‘angriest’ countries in the EU such as Greece don’t want to leave or even abandon the Euro. Do they know something we don’t? Probably not, they are simply more pragmatic.

    The Brexit leavers are living in a 1950’s la-la land of imperial illusion, full of bluster and braggadocio about how the nations of the world will be queuing up to trade with us. They’ll get a nasty surprise in due course. The worst thing about Brexit is that the very people who voted to leave will be the hardest hit when we do leave and find ourselves facing trade barriers which will lead to inflation and unemployment.

  22. Colin:

    I think the point of Peter Cairns’ original post was that we do indeed have more than enough predictions from the Brexit side of gloom and doom ahead for the EU, but they’re all of the “we’re all doomed, doomed I tell you” variety.

    I think he was hoping that someone of your persuasion might rise to the challenge of getting a bit more specific. No doubt expecting that any specific predictions would look pretty thin when held up to daylights to the challenge).

    If we are to leave the EU on the basis that the ship is going to sink, I think we should at least be told if it’s going to hit an iceberg, get torpedoed or rip its bottom out on a reef.

    The more general point is that those of the Brexit persuasion do have a disappointing tendency to say, “I don’t want to play any more, this is boring” when challenged to get specific.

  23. Sorry, last sentence of my second par should read:

    No doubt expecting that any specific predictions would look pretty thin when held up to daylight.

  24. Colin,

    “I had more than enough of the “My Guess is better than Your Guess” game during the Referendum Campaign thanks.”

    But it isn’t about guessing, it’s about assessing.

    If two sides come to very different conclusions about an outcome you look at the evidence they have and how they put the pieces together to come to their conclusion.

    Your position is that the Euro and indeed EU will collapse mine isn’t. I am happy to give evidence to why and my predictions as to the short and medium term consequences will be.

    You can’t or won’t, which means I can’t tell if your wrong or right because I don’t have the information.

    TOH just dodges it and you just post links to people who post the same doom laden predictions as you with no more strength to them than it’s in print so it must be true.

    When I was choosing fund managers for the Councils Pension fund of about £800m, we used to interview them and along with their presentation we would ask formal questions.

    However we would always ask some off the cuff topical ones, which at the time were usually about china and the Euro.

    We got a range of answers, half thought China had great prospects another than it’s banking system would implode. On the Euro most thought it would muddle through a few like you predicted collapse.

    But we weren’t interested in who was right or which one had the best guess. We were interested in how they had come to their conclusions and how they had gathered and assessed the evidence, because we didn’t want someone who was guessing looking after or money or someone who wasn’t rigorous in how they assessed the situation.

    On the Euro and the EU you could be right, but not on the basis of the evidence you have presented.

    Peter

  25. @Colin

    Re: Evidence and fact based decision making.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/science-report-shelved-for-being-too-pro-eu-nxj8t09zg

    “Britain’s £60-billion pharmaceutical and life sciences industry shelved a report calling for the government to pursue a “soft Brexit” strategy after being warned by ministers that it was too pro-EU.”

  26. Tancred

    Why is that the worst thing? Surely worse would be to have it inflicted upon you by those who didn’t feel the impact?

    If things do turn out to be terrible, at least the people will know that it was the future which they collectively voted for. It’d be interesting to see who they would blame (or whether they accept the price was still worth paying, even if the price was a lot more than they was sold.)

  27. COLIN
    SOMERJOHN
    @”I see there has been no substantive response to your challenge”
    I had more than enough of the “My Guess is better than Your Guess” game during the Referendum Campaign thanks.

    Ditto, at the risk of upsetting Peter Cairns SNP again no doubt.

  28. Somerjohn
    “The relevance of this? Just that it makes it easier to see why there is such continuing enthusiasm for the EU amongst countries too often dismissed as basket cases by our home grown euroscetics”

    I suppose it depends on whether you are a backward country and looking forward to lots and lots of free money, free motorways or airports that will remain vastly underused, paid for by the EU fairy, or whether you are a country that has always managed to find its own way for a thousand years and is now saddled with funding the EU fairy. After 40 years, at last, a majority has said, enough is enough.

    Yes, Germany pays the most but they are still wracked with guilt over the war. Even there, there is growing resentment against the EU. The French contribute next but get most of it back through the CAP. They do their own thing anyway and simply ignore EU imposed rules they don’t like.

    What does the uk get, apart from being outvoted much of the time and insults from unelected, self important nonentities like Junker?

  29. Somerjohn

    “I will leave others to decide which set of forecasts is the more credible!”

    Since I put 30 years as a possible timing for the final collapse of the EU they will have to wait along time. I will be 106 by then, if I survive that long, but you never know the benefits of being outside the EU might just do it for me.

  30. @Cambridgerachel

    I don’t really want to think of it as “golly gosh, can’t wait for all those Boomers to die”. That’s a pretty unpleasant sentiment no matter how you spin it. That said, it is remarkably easy to feel very resentful as all of the ladders are slowly getting pulled up leaving us adrift, and being pulled up by the same people who benefited from them. I think my post was moderated for including the word fami/l/i/a/r/, so I’ll attempt reposting:

    I wouldn’t even be surprised if we rejoined the European Union given another 30 years when you look at the demographic splits. If age cohorts remain relatively consistent as they grow older, the electorate will be pro-EU in about 11 years. I have to say, the overwhelming feeling from my generation (Millennial) is one of contempt, sadly. There’s a lot of bile felt towards those who made a decision about something very unlikely to affect them. Myself, I put it down to people turning towards nostalgic and comforting things – Empire, Commonwealth, blue passports, white faces – when things like the recession happen and people start feeling insecure and worried, and I try not to hold too much resentment on account of that, but it can be quite difficult.

  31. Top Hat

    I think the contempt goes both ways.

  32. @Alan;

    And that’s something pretty upsetting. How have we reached the stage where there can be such a large disconnect between grandchildren and their grandparents? What happened to the idea of the social contract?

  33. I don’t comment here much but have been following for a while. It is nice to see some (largely) friendly and informative political debate. In terms of bias I voted remain and would do so again so people should view my comments through that political perspective.
    But, if I look at the politics then I think the challenge for ‘leave’ specifically and the conservative party more generally is that they will need to ‘win over’ a significant number of remain voters to their point of view or risk unpopularity. Colin you said yesterday evening
    For most Leavers , for whom the focus is regaining control of things like Immigration & other Law & repatriating net EU contributions , the main issue is Life after we have left. The vast majority will have little interest in the process or the legal pitfalls & difficulties.They Voted & now I think they will just wait for May to deliver a package so they can react to it. There will be the Hard Brexiteers who have the time & inclination to study procedural options. But I really feel that for most Leave Voters-its up to May now.
    I would tend to agree with that analysis but the problem for leave is that securing ‘most leavers’ or even ‘the vast majority’ will not be enough to keep a simple majority. The vote was just too close for even a few leave voters to change their mind. So, unless remain voters start to be convinced by the process then a few ‘leavers’ deciding that they no longer support leave will be enough to mean that it no longer has public support. Irrespective of the referendum result politically I always think it is difficult to implement policies if they do not have public support.
    Given that I have been surprised by the leave tactics which seem to have been fairly confrontational so far. Liam Fox in particular has given a great example of how not to win friends and influence people (and I cannot believe that the constant reference to anyone who has the temerity to question the wisdom of Brexit as remoaners will help)! My personal view is that many people who voted remain are prepared to give Leave the chance to negotiate and create deals. But if they do not result in the better UK leave promised then many will be tempted be adopt an ‘I told you so’ approach.
    The reality for Johnson, Davies and Fox is that they with either need to do a free trade deal with the EU or demonstrate that a trade deal with Australia which will allow us to export more apples and some extra lamb will be enough to replace any downside in trade barriers on industrial goods and financial services going to the EU. Not an easy job!

  34. @Alan

    Historical evidence tends to show that anyone else other than the Electorate gets the blame for people voting for stupid things. Particularly if they voted for the tide not to come in. Why blame themselves, when Boris Johnson is right there and told them the tides would listen to us.

  35. @Somerjohn

    No more countries will join the euro.

    Here is Poland’s Central Bank Chief speaking in June 2016 about why Poland should not join:

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/polands-central-bank-chief-explains-advantages-of-not-joining-euro-1464947492

    They’re doing a “five impossible tests” thing and saying that “Poland could only consider adopting the euro when income levels reached those of neighboring Germany, its biggest trading partner”.

    So at the end of this century, maybe, if the euro is still around?

  36. Jayblanc

    You really think he (or any of the Chevening Three) would still be there after a worst case scenario hits?

  37. Top Hat

    I think the social contract is based upon the belief that your retirement will be at least as good as that of the previous generation.

    I think that belief has been hit quite hard,

  38. @Alan

    Then someone else gets the blame. Probably the government, or the political party backing it. The worse case however is if blame gets deflected to some easily isolatable social group, such as Muslims for instance.

  39. ALAN
    Top Hat
    “I think the contempt goes both ways.”

    I’m sure that’s true for some people on the Brexit side. Certainly those who continually run the countries prospects down get mine.

    TOP HAT
    @Alan;
    “And that’s something pretty upsetting. How have we reached the stage where there can be such a large disconnect between grandchildren and their grandparents? What happened to the idea of the social contract?”

    I think that totally depends on the family and how they were brought up, and the degree of respect which existed before the referendum divided the country.

    My children and those Grandchildren old enough to remain all voted to remain. Their attitude now is that they respect the result and just hope the government gets a good deal. All of them think a second referendum would be undemocratic. My wife and i voted to leave, all our children know it, understand why and respect our views as we respect theirs. I would suggest it is only families which are already somewhat dissfunctional who have a problem.

  40. @Alan;

    Why the Boomer contempt for Millennials, though? Why was there so much disdain for the very clear preference to remain European citizens? It just saddens me that our elders think so little of us.

  41. I mean, there’s little point repicking the issues of the referendum now, I’m most just highlighting it as an example of how on essentially every single issue that Millennials feel strongly about, Boomers overrule them in the opposite direction, even on issues which do not affect Boomers, and even on issues that Boomers themselves benefited from. It’s staggering.

  42. Strange comments about boomers and millennials. At the age of 49 I would class myself as one of the last cohorts of the boomers and my family must be highly unusual because we ALL voted remain – right up to the age 80+ members.

  43. @Alan

    There is no genuine social contract in the UK – the establishment doesn’t want it. If they could get away with it they would re-introduce the workhouse.

  44. A social contract between generations is a lot easier when you have a lot of young people producing wealth and a relatively small number of older people taking that wealth from them.

    One of the problems we face is that the post-1945 social system was premised on demographics that don’t exist anymore. Since the 1970s, governments have tried to obviate this development by public sector reforms (the NHS used to be laughably inefficient before Thatcher, Major and Blair, as indicated by the combination of falling hospital beds and rising bureaucracy) but these are really only temporary palliatives for the problem of combining the New Jerusalem with an ageing population.

  45. There’s a parallel universe where, after 1945, we adopted something like the modern Singapore social insurance system: major forced savings for all and subsidies for the poor.

    As it is, we have two choices: either buy capital from abroad (sovereign wealth fund) and cut current expenditures, or accept mass immigration. Of course, we can adopt a mix of these two. I point out the former, because in truth, mass immigration was a political choice, rather than an inevitable part of our demographics.

  46. PETER CAIRNS

    @”Your position is that the Euro and indeed EU will collapse mine isn’t.”

    No…………it isn’t…………necessarily.

    I posted that Varoufakis thought that.

    The evidence that I see indicates a structure unfit for purpose *, ( the purpose being the union of 27 countries) ; two deeply differing views of the comparative roles of Member States & The Commission , failure to react with a common purpose to crises , increasing indications of extreme political populism appealing to disenchanted voters etc etc.

    I don’t know what will happen-perhaps it will go on like this for years-but I don’t want UK to be part of its dotage.

    * The ECB is apparently considering the BoJ’s latest weeze in the increasingly mad world of Central Bank activity. In this commentary note the following :-
    “”The BOJ’s move is interesting and innovative but the euro zone doesn’t have a single sovereign debt market, it has 19, so such a move would be difficult and get the ECB into hot water,” Berenberg economist Holger Schmieding said. “What yield would you even target?”

    EU Fiscal & Monetary “governance” in a nutshell-like herding cats.

    “The BOJ’s move is interesting and innovative but the euro zone doesn’t have a single sovereign debt market, it has 19, so such a move would be difficult and get the ECB into hot water,” Berenberg economist Holger Schmieding said. “What yield would you even target?

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ecb-policy-boj-idUKKCN11R0YA

  47. @Bill Patrick

    The social contract can be maintained – but we need to pay more tax in order to do so, and therein lies the rub. No UK government is willing to impose a high tax regime in order to guarantee a good state pension and social benefits, but in other countries in Europe this is the norm.

  48. Bill Patrick

    There was a good (if rather extreme) solution in Logan’s Run.

    Although that was a result of a demographic shift, right now this generation are keeping the birth rate down to protect themselves against being outvoted in old age!

  49. Tancred

    There is also the problem of a lack of faith that this generation will enjoy such benefits once it’s their turn to be provided for.

    Pay high tax AND be left to look after yourself in old age? I can see why people (quite rightly) would baulk at that.

  50. JOHNINDEVON

    @”Not an easy job!”

    An almost impossible one-not for the technocrats & their Ministers. They will get what is possible.

    But for May, to achieve & sell an arrangement which meets with the approval of all Leavers-let alone, as you say, the Unaccepting Remainers, is an absolutely daunting task.

    The odds must be against her, so I suppose an election pre 2020 cannot be discounted.

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