I’ve been tied up with boundary changes and having a birthday at the weekend, so this is just a quick post to catch up with some of the voting intention and Scottish Independence polling I’ve missed. Looking at Westminster voting first, I’ve updated the voting intention on the sidebar to include all the latest figures. Overall the Conservative party’s lead remains strong – most polls still have the Tories at around 40% and Labour around 30%.

The two most recent polls, from YouGov and Ipsos MORI, both showed the Tory lead falling a bit – YouGov had a lead of 7 points (down from 11), MORI a lead of 6 points (down from 11). In the case of YouGov, this is actually within the normal range of their recent polling (they had the Tory lead at 7 and 8 points in August too) and the MORI poll is probably at least partially a reversion to the mean after an anomalously high 45% score for the Tories their previous poll. Nevertheless, it may be a sign of Theresa May’s honeymoon continuing to fade.

Two years on from the Indyref we’ve also seen a handful of new polls on Scottish independence. The last time I wrote about polling on Scottish independence was at the end of July. Back then we had seen a couple of polls from Survation and Panelbase taken immediately after the EU Referendum that appeared to show a shift in favour of Scottish independence, but a YouGov poll taken a few weeks later showing no apparent change. We’ve had several more Scottish polls since then, including more recent polls from Survation and Panelbase, as well as polls from TNS and Ipsos MORI. The picture now looks very clear, showing NO ahead with no obvious net movement towards Yes as a result of the EU referendum (though as John Curtice points out there has been churn under the surface). MORI show NO five points ahead, Survation, Panelbase and TNS all have NO six points ahead.


464 Responses to “Catching up on voting intention and Scottish Independence”

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  1. Peter Cairns – “The move to tackle what many in the EU see as wholesale Coroprate Tax evasion comes from a public angry at the likes of Starbucks. ”

    The EU hasn’t got any right to interfere in the tax arrangements of member states.

    If they want to gain those rights, they need to negotiate a new EU treaty and then get it ratified in each member state (including referendums in countries like RoI).

    If they’re too scared to go down that route, then they need to abide by the existing treaties. Making power grabs by illegally tearing up treaties just puts their whole project in jeopardy.

    If the treaties arn’t worth the paper they are written on, then perhaps Brexit can be simply achieved by a formal treaty tearing ceremony.

  2. PETER CAIRNS

    @”I just can’t see why people are so convinced it will just happen and haven’t seen anything other er than unsubstantiated reassurance that it will!”

    That it is an SNP supporter lecturing others about unsubstantiated economic confidence tells you all you need to know about the Scots Nats.

    By the way its spelled “Bogeyman ” . I presume a “Boggy Man” is something damp & scottish.

  3. PETER CAIRNS

    @” is it the fault of a long line of Greek Governments?

    The Sovereign Debt & unsustainable Public Finances ?-Yes-obviously.

    @”Brussels is to blame.”

    For letting them join ?-Yes-obviously.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/03/greece-in-europe-a-short-history

  4. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    I think you were missing my point. Of course there are two sides to any negotiation, but in the end it is for us to decide what we will or will not accept.

    You seem to think that the 6th greatest economy in the World has no clout in negotiation, and that we are dependent on what few titbits the EU and the rest of the World might throw us. Nothing is further from the truth as I believe we will see as Brexit unfolds, . The Remainers are all so negative which is why somebody called them the Remoaners, but perhaps you now understand why.

    You had me almost agreeing with your opening post this morning but now you have reverted to being totally negative negative.

  5. Peter Cairns

    I think you have a reasonable position there.

    It seems that those on here most in favour of Brexit treat anyone who doesn’t share their world view with contempt and insults like “extremist” and “ranting”.

    No doubt they will blame the “remoaners” for not conforming with their views and the country “not coming back together”. I’d suggest labeling half the country as extremists is not likely to engender harmony.

    I’m sure there are a few here practicing “Brexiteer Baiting”, I wouldn’t include you in that group. All it takes is to throw together an implausible route to “No Brexit” and the clique of Brexiteers all respond in unison.

  6. The link between Labour Tomorrow and Save Labour.

    Britain really need an electoral reform.

    http://goo.gl/MfAZok

  7. PETER CAIRNS

    @” Is it the fault of Irish politicians hand in glove, or worse, with developers? No it’s the fault of the Euro.”

    A bit of both really.

    One Size Fits All Interest Eurozone Rates didn’t help.

    http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/staff/phonohan/What%20went%20wrong.pdf

  8. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    “I’d, like most Brexit issues, a clear steer from those in favour of exactly what they want from the EU, why they expect to get it and just what makes them think that Countries outwith the EU want to give us freer access to their markets than they currently give the EU.”

    No sane negotiator would give you that Peter and since none of us are on the negotiating team none of us can give you that.

    Personally I would be happy with the best trade deal we can achieve where we do not have to accept free movement of people, or paying the EU anything, I’m sure there are other things I want as well but that will do for starters. Will I get all I want, almost certainly not but that’s life, after all i have never had a government that gives me exactly what i want.

  9. Laszlo

    I’m not sure electoral reform would change what is happening within the Labour party.

    The electoral landscape is likely to change one way or another after the result of the leadership is announced, how things settle down once the tremors stop is anyone’s guess.

  10. I don’t see anything meaningful in the Scottish poll other than evidence of deep division in public opinion over independence. I don’t see any obvious way in which the different views can be reconciled.

    As for the open border with the Rep of Ireland, surely this would also entail an open border with the EU as a whole, as how can this be otherwise? You would need to have passport checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which seems absurd. The government needs to explain all this.

  11. @The Other Howard

    I see little point in discussing Brexit any further until we know the negotiating positions of the UK and the EU. At the moment we can only speculate and recriminate, which simply doesn’t help matters. As a remainer I sincerely hope for an EEA outcome, though this is probably unlikely.

    All we can do is wait and see. For myself, I am now tired of the issue until something meaningful exists to discuss.

  12. TOH

    Your last para nicely encapsulates the Referendum Vote.

    The reasons for the result are a mixture of grievances & concerns. For some people , at the extreme-they seem to be fixed red lines , none of which may be crossed. For others -like you it seems-they are a list of things , the solution to which can be balanced & still be acceptable.

    One might also argue that the Brexit Vote included grievances which are entirely unrelated to EU-TM made it clear on the steps of No 10 that she recognised this.

    So it really is pointless for the extreme Remainers to keep braying on about shopping lists & precise plans.

    Negotiating a Brexit which will be acceptable to the voters of this country will contain large dollops of managerial & technical expertise obviously -but at heart it will require Political skill to achieve a balance that most can accept.

    That is May’s role-if she gets it right she will go down in history as a great PM-if she gets it wrong , she will be one of histories footnotes.

  13. TANCRED

    “All we can do is wait and see. For myself, I am now tired of the issue until something meaningful exists to discuss.”

    We are in agreement about that, although i don’t think you will ever see clear negotiating positions from either the UK or the EU, both will never want to show their full hand.

  14. Colin,

    “Bogeyman”, Bogeyman it is indeed I stand corrected and I’ve given my spell checker a damned good thrashing.

    As to claims of the SNP the Independence White Paper wasn’t perfect, and we got the projected price of Oil farther out that everyone else (I think we said $140, BT said $115 and dropped to $35) but compared to the UK governments predictions and preparations for a possible Brexit it was a masterpiece.

    There was plenty to argue about with our prospectors and plenty of arguing was had, but at least we had one. We were never going to be in a position where 3 months after a Yes vote we had no plan for the currency, the EU, NATO or our immigration policy!

    Black Swans happen, the price of oil has collapsed and we lose 120,000 jobs and £9bn in revenue, but the number of jobs in Scotland still rose, we still have 300,000 oil jobs and an Oil industry that apart from Norway no one else our size in Europe has.

    The U.K. had a banking crisis and had to take £1tn of private debt onto the public books. It happens. We vote for Brexit and Sterling loses 20% of it’s value over the summer.

    The fundamentals of our economy are still pretty strong and I for one have always said on here that going from the economy we inherit to the one we need will be a long hard road.

    I certainly don’t look at Independence and have the rosy view of automatic economic liberation that most Brexiteers seem have.

    My view is that we underperform because of the Union and that the Union both lets us get away with it and prevents us from dealing with it.

    Much as I hate quoting my party leader as it seems so sycophantic Alex Salmond was right when he said “Independence isn’t the Answer to Scotland’s problems, it’s the chance to address them”.

    I think the wiser Brexiteers and there are a few of them, though very few on here, understand that, but most like a lot of nationalist really do believe naively that it really is just “With One Bound We’ll be Free!”

    Which brings me back to your quote of me….I am happy to spell out how I think post Independence we could and should address our economic problems, what’s the Brexit plan because so far the most substantial thing I’ve seen is things along the line of;

    “Just you wait and see once we get going now we’re free of Brussels”

    I remain to be convinced.

    Peter.

  15. Colin

    As usual I agree with your last post.

  16. Peter Cairns SNP

    ” the rosy view of automatic economic liberation that most Brexiteers seem have.”

    I don’t understand where you get that from Peter, I for one have always accepted that there will bean economic price to pay leaving the EU at least in the short term.

    Assiduosity clearly understood my view by posting the following which sums up my position so well that I kept his post:-

    “There are some on here – @TOH springs to mind – who admirably set out a course for Brexit that involves restructuring our economy, redirecting to international markets and ‘earning our way in the world’. They recognise, it seems to me, that this is a challenging exercise and likely not without short term discomfort. There is too the possibility of failure, but that is true of any course of action, and worth it for the benefit of sovereignty – that is their position.

  17. Colin,
    “Negotiating a Brexit which will be acceptable to the voters of this country will contain large dollops of managerial & technical expertise obviously -but at heart it will require Political skill to achieve a balance that most can accept.”

    That all presupposes that getting a Brexit deal acceptable to the majority is possible. It may not be.

    The Leave vote was an alliance of mutually exclusive promises: more money for public services AND no drop in grants to farmers etc, cuts in immigration AND no loss in trade, throwing out foreigners AND not forcing anyone to leave.

    Whatever the Brexit deal will be, it cannot possibly please all of the disparate groups that made up the Leave vote. This wouldn’t matter if Leave had got 70-80%, but they only just scraped over the 50% mark. As soon as even a small percentage of Leave voters feel betrayed, the deal will be one that most of the UK doesn’t want.

    That’s why all of the Brexit ministers are being so vague (e.g. May doesn’t talk about reducing immigration but “changing” it… what does that mean?). They know as soon as they make any explicit plans, they will lose the fragile majority they built up at the referendum.

    Some say Remainers are in denial, but surely it is the Leave camp that is burying its head in the sand on this issue. Leave at the moment is like a government being elected on an uncosted and impossible manifesto, then refusing to take any decisions because they’re scared that people will find out they can’t get what they want.

  18. Yougov have published data for a question about the relocation of parliament during refurbishment . It supports several interpretations, and I’m not sure I’d opt for the one the Yougov commentator has chosen.

  19. Peter C,

    Had the EU taken action against Ireland (and others) before the referendum, I would have been less keen on leaving. That said, it is quite possible that the EU decision has nothing to do with the immorality of corporations paying virtually no tax, but that it is giving American corporations a competitive advantage over European ones.

  20. EDGE OF SEAT

    Remainers have the advantage:- they support the spiders web of pan-national rules , regulations & procedure , together with the Lego set of institutional structures ; which Leavers dislike. So they can simply say-if you try to exit this lot it will be really very complex -therefore we will keep asking what the plan is to make the process of leaving the main issue.

    For most Leavers , for whom the focus is regaining control of things like Immigration & other Law & repatriating net EU contributions , the main issue is Life after we have left. The vast majority will have little interest in the process or the legal pitfalls & difficulties.They Voted & now I think they will just wait for May to deliver a package so they can react to it. There will be the Hard Brexiteers who have the time & inclination to study procedural options. But I really feel that for most Leave Voters-its up to May now.

    I don’t blame May at all for not giving a running commentary-that will come soon enough when both teams are facing off across a Brussels table. As I said her task is to balance what is possible with what is acceptable.

    I think the answer to your question about the meaning of her remarks about immigration is that she sees the issue as gaining more control . After which it will be for any UK Government to persuade voters that its immigration policy is appropriate.

    As I see it there are two phases to this-which Remainers are constantly trying to elide:-

    Regaining Control of Law making powers & EU net Contributions by leaving the EU

    Then

    Deciding , over a period of years, ( having probably incorporated all existing EU regulation into UK Law ) which Laws we repeal & which we keep/amend/introduce afresh-and which EU Project funding we continue to support direct from UK taxation.

    Of course the process of Leaving will require a new relationship to be defined with EU of matters of Trade-and May knows that this will be under scrutiny from the off because it is so critical. But even here , I do think that May will be pragmatic because she has to balance so many demands which are interlinked. I may be wrong , but I seem to remember that respondents accepted a degree of “cost” on Trade , given gains in other areas like Immigration.

  21. Peter Cairns
    You quoted Salmond
    “Independence isn’t the Answer to Scotland’s problems, it’s the chance to address them”

    Replace ‘Scotland’ with ‘the UK’ and that’s pretty much my attitude to Brexit, and I’m sure I’m not alone.

  22. PETE B

    Spot on.

  23. Colin

    Again an excellent post which i cannot fault.

  24. TOH,

    “You seem to think that the 6th greatest economy in the World has no clout in negotiation.”

    Not none, just not as much as you seem to think.

    We are the 6th Largest Economy in the World, you just forgot to mention that we now account for just less than 4% of it, more now a small fish in a big pond that one of the top three in the EU, where we were a big fish in a smaller pond.

    The benefit of Soveignty might be at the cost of collective strength!

    Colin,

    “For letting them join ?-Yes-obviously.”

    The Greeks joined on the basis that they would need to reform. They didn’t and still struggle. As I said before there is no hiding place in the Eurozone and the reforms many Countries have avoided for too long can no longer be put off.

    It’s not that different to leaving the Euro and letting your currency float that many suggest as an alternative.

    It only works in the long term if you reform, but the actual track record of those that do, by design, default or inflation is actually pretty woeful. It’s like self stabilising markets with light touch regulatiion, in theory it works in practice banks crash!

    As I’ve said the EU is far from perfect but to be part of the Euro, which is where the Greek people want to be, they would need either to be going through this now or through it before.

    I suspect the lesson has been largely, if painfully, learned on both sides and those still wishing to join will be under far greater scrutiny. Oh and of course unlike Sterling their are still countries queuing to join.

    TOH,

    “No sane negotiator would give you that Peter and since none of us are on the negotiating team none of us can give you that.”

    Oh spare me the Donald Trump ISIS line, nobody in Government is keeping their plan secret, they just don’t have one.

    As to talking about short term pain and restructuring, as is your norm you make the assertion but avoid the detail. You don’t tell us why the pain will be short term or indeed just exactly the policies that would rebalance the economy.

    Last time we debated this, well I debated, you dodged, I made the point that as long as in the UK there continued to be higher return and lower risk from buying and selling existing shares and property than investing in businesses and building property we were unlikely to see an rebalance.

    But no answer from you was forthcoming. Like TM with The EU, your happy to proclaim “Brexit means Brexit” but you don’t actually have a plan.

    Losing close to 25% against the Euro might temporarily boost exports and lead to some substitution but it’s only sustainable if Sterling stays weak which it won’t if we have export lead growth. Germany gets away with it because problems in Spain and Greece keep the Euro lower than a German currency would be.

    Earlier today Wolf asked what the SNP should do about more lost Oil jobs. I am inclined to look at what Norway did when oil forced up the Krona…. Let them sink or swim.

    If we can run the North Sea with 300k jobs instead of 450k then hard as it might be in the longer term we are better focuses using our £500m loan fund to in courage business growth elsewhere in the economy than trying to keep them or return them to supporting extracting oil and gas from fast maturing undersea basin.

    It is I suppose a case of “Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste”. It’s a bit Hobbsian but be it “Nasty, Brutish and Short” we could come out of this mean and lean with adversity creating just the kind of productivity changes in a key Scottish Sector that you want to see in the UK.

    What’s more it is happening Scotland with very different circumstances to the South East of England within the UK with Sterling a one sizes fits all currency.

    Peter.

  25. Colin,
    “Remainers have the advantage:- they support the spiders web of pan-national rules , regulations & procedure , together with the Lego set of institutional structures ; which Leavers dislike.”

    You’re actually just proving my point for me by trying to lump together Leavers into one homogenous group that shares common values and goals, without providing any evidence that this is the case.

    The question on the referendum didn’t mention regulations, neither did the £350-million-a-week campaign bus, neither did the posters of refugees nor the adverts claiming that Turkey was about to join the EU.

    The overwhelming narrative of the official and unofficial Leave campaigns were to give Britons more money and stop foreigners (especially from poor and/or Muslim countries) coming in. If a Brexit deal means restricting immigration while sacrificing the economy, or boosting the economy while allowing immigration, either way that will be seen as a betrayal by those who responded to the Leave campaign’s narrative.

    Imagine if we ran the next general election like this, with the binary question: “Do you want a Conservative government?”. The majority would probably vote no, but then what happens next? Do we say that the government must be a UKIP-Labour-LibDem-SNP-Green-DUP-etc coalition because all of its voters want the same things?

    That’s the absurdity of the Leave vote, it is trying to hold together groups that are pulling in different directions with opposing priorities. They had a shared view that they didn’t want the EU, but they did not have a shared view of what they wanted to replace it.

  26. EDGE OF SEAT

    @”You’re actually just proving my point for me by trying to lump together Leavers into one homogenous group that shares common values and goals, without providing any evidence that this is the case.”

    I thought that I had explained my view that the common theme of exiting the EU was accompanied by many varied priorities among Leavers-some indeed which had nothing to do with EU at all.

    There is no “evidence” for which priorities were uppermost in Referendum Voters’ minds. Constantly asking these sort of questions after Voters simply said “UK should Leave the EU” is futile.

    The Campaign on both sides included many & various claims-some of which no doubt will turn out to be cobblers.

    If I was a Remainer who doesn’t accept the Referendum Result & wanted to frustrate, or even reverse it , I too would be forever asking for the answer to questions which weren’t on the Referendum Ballot Paper.
    But I’m not-I want May to succeed as she attempts to do the voters bidding, and produce an outcome which they will accept as a reasonable response to their own particular reasons for wanting to Leave.

    And I don’t want to hear anything from her on the subject until she has something to tell me about it-which she will do.

  27. PETER CAIRNS

    @” As I said before there is no hiding place in the Eurozone and the reforms many Countries have avoided for too long can no longer be put off.”

    I think the evidence is otherwise-that there are multiple hiding places . because there are so many disparate national interests & circumstances which the never ending Summits are constantly trying to reconcile.

    Bratislava , the latest one, was no different to all the others-nicely described by the PM of Italy as ” no more than “a nice cruise on the Danube”.

    I’ve just caught the end of a C4 News interview with Varoufakis who was scathing about Bratislava & said that the EU would collapse like the “Soviet Union”. I can only presume that he chose this comparison for a reason.

  28. Colin,

    “never ending Summits are constantly trying to reconcile.”

    In the UK we call them Cabinet meetings, but then if EU leaders get together it’s “never ending summits” and if they don’t then we are being ruled by unelected faceless officials.

    Like I said before; always some way to make it the “Baddies” fault.

    Oh and as ever I am interested in quality not quantity, so a steady stream of short congratulatory posts between you and your chums doesn’t cut it!

    Peter.

  29. I think the EU will collapse like the Soviet Union did, but not for comparable reasons.

    But there will be the European Union of business – back to a developed version of Montanunion really.

    The left is miserable on this issue – actually with the exception of Corbyn, which causes me endless ideological internal struggles :-).

    But it’s unfortunately true. The East European left (it’s liberal really) longs for the EU hoping that it would stop the fascists (the EU has no intention of doing it), the West European left hopes that the EU would maintain the concordance- it won’t, they will just be swept aside.

    The real left (from euro communists to communists) is completely deluded. And with the exception of Syriza (which not an euro communist party anymore anyway), they haven’t got a clue what’s going on, but hope either in the worse the better or the status quo.

    Fascinatingly, Corbyn is the best …

    I don’t want to comment on the right, but it has the same problems. In a way, it is very much a mirror of the collapse of the post war Italian politics in the early 1990s. And that took quarter of the century to come to today’s madness.

    So, there is hope.

  30. I would attribute this softening in the Tory Lead to the fact that there now appear now to be more don’t knows. This is probably owing to the fact that there hasn’t been much political news recently. The EU hoo ha has died down and the MP’s have been away, (Thank God). I don’t imagine that there are many Corbyn supporters telling the Pollsters that they ‘don’t know’.

    The Tories are on course for a majority of between 60 and 90 at the next election. I’m not expecting the melt down in Labour that some are but Labour are beyond the pale as far as winning is concerned.

    And don’t be surprised if the SNP lose a few in Scotland. There is a definite note of metal fatigue about the SNP and people are showing willing to Vote tactically to get them out. In the past they’ve benefited from the same tactical vote the other way. Not a few Labour people are now showing willing to Vote tactically for the Tories in Scotland. The Tories did remarkably well in the Regional list seats in May 2016. It helps them that Ruth Davidson is not seen as an English Tory puppet.

    The question is, how many Scottish Tories would be willing to do the same for Labour. Quite a few I shouldn’t wonder. Scottish Labour is not seen as pro Corbyn and a few Tories might prefer a few Labour MPs to counter the image that the SNP is creating for Scotland, and the SNP’s overbearing insistence that they represent the settled opinions of all Scots.

    Very slowly Unionism there, is starting to edge towards operating a coherent force. The SNP is a coalition of a ludicrously diverse political spectrum, Why shouldn’t Unionism be as well. There are of course more Unionists than Nationalists. 55% to 45% to be exact.

  31. PETER CAIRNS

    My impression from Renzi’s & Varoufakis’s remarks about Bratislava was that they think it was a failure because it did not address key EU problems.

    ……..so I will amend my phrase-” Never ending Summit failures”

    If you really think that current EU Fiscal Governance provides “no hiding places” then you are more delusional than I took you for.

    Don’t you get it?-all these countries are DIFFERENT-with different priorities & cultures. Trying to apply a common monetary policy to 27 sovereign fiscal entities has been a disaster for some of them. And trying to compensate by issuing more & more edicts from the Germans about being prudent or else will not solve the problem.

    The answer is Common Fiscal Policy-which means Political Union-which is where Juncker wants to be. But the “People” will never vote for it-which is why he complained recently that Council Members listen to them too much.( !)

    This is like Jeremy Heywood moaning that the Cabinet consult their constituents too much.-well its like that if Juncker really is the “Civil Servant” you always describe him as.

    If he wants to be a politician -he will have to consult the “People” too.

    Anyway-we can’t go round this circuit too often can we?

    Lets just agree to differ on how sustainable the European Union is.

  32. Sorbus

    Thanks for the link to the YG question “Where should the UK Parliament go?”

    “To hell” seems an option that would attract a large support.

  33. Ron Olden

    The opinion polls show little sign of people going off the SNP in Scotland.

  34. York

  35. Ron Olden

    “Not a few Labour people are now showing willing to Vote tactically for the Tories in Scotland.”

    I suspect you are misreading Scottish politics.

    Under New Labour, SLab created an image (and in many ways the reality) of a party that Central Belt urban middle class folk (who would have voted Tory in a similar constituency elsewhere in GB) could happily vote for. as serving their interests. Describing lots of voters in Allan Christie’s ex-home town as “Labour folk” is somewhat misleading.

    These are individuals who now vote Tory, because they see that as more in their interests.

    The Tories did remarkably well in the Regional list seats in May 2016.”

    Actually, SCon got just 3.8% more than SLab on the List vote, and a lot of that was due to actively working to attract Unionist votes, while SLab displayed their customary incompetence, by largely ignoring the List, and concentrating on the constituency vote where they lad little hope.

    Ignoring your somewhat partisan wording, it has been obvious to every Scottish commentator, for some time now, that since Scotland is divided roughly 50/50 across its major political fault line, then any party which can garner the support of most on their side of the fault will do well electorally.

    If Davidson can replicate the achievements of her early 20th century predecessors, at gathering the Liberal Unionists into their fold, then her new “Conservative and Labour/LD Unionist Party” could do very well.

    They might even reach the giddy heights in Westminster elections of the Unionist/National Liberal coalition in 1955, or the “Yesser” coalition that the SNP put together in 2015.

    Which raises an interesting question for whatever kind of Labour Party emerges in E&W.

    Do they side with the SNP or the Tories in the multi-national UK Parliament – and will anyone side with them?

  36. CR

    I saw a number plate today, which made me think of you.

    “CR 51lly”

    I thought the car must belong to a Tory UKPR reader, as I don’t think CR is silly at all! :-)

  37. Colin,

    “Lets just agree to differ on how sustainable the European Union is.”

    Fair enough, not leave Party on the continent can currently get into Government without a pro EU party beside them and after Brexit not one with any doubt will allow a referendum, so with Countries still trying to get in my money’s safe”

    But if you want to make it interesting, I am saying that firstly by 2020, but then as far out as 2025;

    1) No Country but the UK will leave the EU.
    2) At least one more Country will join the EU.
    3) No Country will be forced out of the Euro.
    4) At least one more Country will join the Euro.
    5) The Euro will still be a fully functioning currency.
    6) More central banks will still hold more Euros than Sterling.
    7) There will be more global trade in Euros than Sterling.

    What are you and TOH’s predictions.

    Peter.

  38. Peter Cairns:

    Your 7 predictions look eminently reasonable to me. I think you could add an 8th with absolute certainty: Turkey will not be an EU member.

    As for making a success of eurozone membership, it is actually very simple. You just need to join at the correct rate (i.e. not overvalued) and then keep your inflation at or below the eurozone average.

    Other than that, you just need normal prudent economic governance – not going bananas on borrowing and spending, take measures to maintain or improve competitiveness, regulate boom/bust through fiscal policy.

    Can anyone point to a eurozone country that has fulfilled those very simple requirements and got into nay difficulties?

  39. @Laszlo

    “On ferries between UK mainland and Eire there are passport checks on the Irish side.”

    Having travelled on two different UK-Eire ferry routes in the last month, I can tell you categorically there are no passport checks or other identity checks of any kind, either in the UK or in Ireland.

  40. @CR

    On Corbyn’s camp managing expectations…

    I have no doubt at all that Corbyn will win, What I am *very* concerned about is the far from fanciful possibility that Owen will win the vote amongst the membership. That would be a recipe for major instability, and will probably promote a lot of unpleasant talk, exemplifying the new gentler kinder politics with which we are becoming only too familiar.

  41. While the views of posters on here on the effects of Brexit are very interesting, rather more important are the views of voters.

    MORI has a poll of Scots attitudes on “The UK economy”, “The economy in the European Union” and “The UK’s influence on the world stage”.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/SRI_PA_IMScot_Spom_Sept16_Brexit_tables.pdf

    In the wake of the UK voting to leave the EU, our new poll suggests that most Scots think that Brexit will have a negative impact in the UK and across Europe.

    When asked about the impact on the UK economy, around half of Scots (52%) think it will be negative compared to one in five (21%) who think it will have a positive effect. Similarly, 43% think that Brexit will have a negative impact on the UK’s influence on the world stage, compared to 24% who think the opposite.
    Scots are also generally also negative about the prospects for Europe following Brexit; 48% think it will be negative for the EU economy compared to 15% who think it will be positive, and 37% think it will be negative for the EU’s standing in the world compared to 16% who think it will be positive.

  42. @CR

    On Corbyn’s camp managing expectations…

    I have no doubt at all that Corbyn will win, What I am *very* concerned about is the far from fanciful possibility that Smith will win the vote amongst the membership. What the fall-out from that would be I can only begin to imagine, but I don’t think Corbyn’s clean slate would last very long.

  43. Robin

    “Having travelled on two different UK-Eire ferry routes in the last month, I can tell you categorically there are no passport checks or other identity checks of any kind, either in the UK or in Ireland.”

    You must look terribly British (white, not much facial hair).

  44. Robin

    ” I can tell you categorically there are no passport checks or other identity checks of any kind, either in the UK or in Ireland.”

    I have never travelled by ferry to or from RoI, but I can tell you, categorically(!), that Stena do advise passengers to take a form of identification, and that these are (sometimes) checked at Belfast – because ours were!

    Indeed it was a policy introduced by the UKBA, when they stopped funding additional police officers at Cairnryan that the focus on checking identities was to be moved to Northern Ireland.

    Damien Green was quite explicit on this in 2011

    Intelligence shows that the majority of illegal migrant traffic comes from the Republic of Ireland through Northern Ireland, and then on to Scotland. It therefore makes sense to transfer the responsibility for identifying those illegal migrants to the border agency’s local immigration team in Northern Ireland, where UK Border Agency staff replicate the work already done at the Northern Irish airports. The agency has more substantial resources on site in Northern Ireland, which is more conveniently located to service the ports and enable the agency to be more operationally effective. The UK Border Agency’s immigration officers in Northern Ireland therefore check the status of passengers arriving from or leaving for Great Britain, targeting routes shown to be most at risk.

  45. @Laszlo

    Agreed. On the other hand there was no sign of anyone being checked at all.

    However, Rosslare does have checkpoints (not in use when I travelled) that I presume are used for passport checks for ferries coming from France.

  46. @OldNat

    Ferries to/from Belfast don’t go to the Republic!

  47. OLDNAT

    Thanks for the MORI link – some interesting numbers there.

    That said, one has to admit that Wodehouse wasn’t wrong with his not difficult to distinguish between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine.

    Of course, COLIN & TOH are merely demonstrating stiff upper lips and the Dunkirk spirit. ;<)}

  48. Robin

    You appear to have forgotten that Belfast is in Ireland!

    If you meant RoI and not Ireland, then you should have said so.

    However, given Damien green’s comments, are you still so sure that no identity checks were being run by the Garda, UKBA, or both on the ferry passengers to/from the Republic?

    If so, the UKBA is clearly totally incompetent – as are the traffickers of illegal immigrants, if they prefer to take the indirect route of RoI to NI to Scotland to England, when (according to you) no one is checking the more direct route to Albion via Cymru.

  49. Barbazenzero

    The Dunkirk spirit celebrates some resources being saved from humiliating defeat.

    Whether that is a better analogy for the Brexiteers ending up like the Axis forces in an even more crushing collapse a few years later, we will need “to wait and see” (as Anthony always reminds us)

    Perhaps It is Tancred who is displaying the “real Dunkirk spirit”! :-)

  50. OLDNAT

    Francis Urquhart applies: You might very well think that; I couldn’t possibly comment.

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