This is the third in a series of posts on the boundary review. There is a general overview of what is happening and why it’s controversial here, a summary of what the effects are and some of MPs who are losing their seats here. This final post has the full, seat-by-seat, estimates of how the votes cast at the last general election would have fallen out on the new boundaries in England and Wales.

Full notional results for England and Wales.

The changes in England and Wales result in the Conservatives losing 10 seats, Labour losing 28 seats, the Liberal Democrats losing 4 and the Greens losing Brighton Pavilion (though notional calculations like these risk underestimating the performance of parties with isolated pockets of support like the Greens and Lib Dems, so it may not hit them as hard as these suggest). The Scottish boundary commission don’t report until next month, but for obvious reasons the Conservatives and Labour can only lose a maximum of one seat each there, meaning that on these boundaries the Conservatives would have had a majority of around 40 at the last election.

The usual caveats I give for notional results apply – this is an accounting exercise, estimating what the ward level vote within each constituency would have been in 2015 (basing the distribution on the distribution at local elections) then reallocating the wards to their new constituencies and adding them back up again. If there is a radically different pattern of support in an area at local and national elections the figures might be misleading, if there are loads of independent candidates in any area (as in rural Wales, North Yorkshire or Cornwall) then the figures won’t be that accurate. If you know an area really well and you think the projections are wrong, then you are probably correct… but hopefully any such errors cancel out.

And a final caveat – this is purely a prediction of how the votes would have fallen out if the votes at the last election were counted on the new boundaries. They are certainly NOT a prediction of what would happen at the next election.


743 Responses to “Notional results for provisional English and Welsh boundaries”

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  1. AL

    @”The Europeans chose political union”

    I am not convinced that they did.

    “The Europeans” in different countries seem to have different views about the degree of political-or even fiscal/monetary union which they want. Many young “Europeans” seem to be voting with their feet in escaping high youth unemployment rates for example.

    From the catastrophic failure of monetary union with fiscal sovereignty , I suppose it is possible to conclude that EU should move to One Finance Ministry alongside its One Central Bank. From that , of course would flow One Parliament , and the downgrading of nation state sovereignty to the level of local authorities. This is clearly the preference of Commissioners like Juncker who simply do not trust the member states to take “correct” decisions behind their inconvenient borders. My own feeling is that this model, and the dismissive arrogance of people like Juncker, is the one which is driving the wave of populist voting across Europe.

    Alternatively , some Leaders -Tusk for example-and of course Tsipras-appear to be advocating a pause on Junckerish Ever Closer Union. My feeling would be that this would have popular appeal if it could be developed into a credible system of inter State co-operation on things about which co-operation is sensible , and National Sovereignty on things which are important locally. This sort of thing , I think , is what many UK Brexiteers have in their minds eye.

    But defining such an entity , or even moving from one trajectory to the other, with 40 years of interlocking institutions & overarching bureaucracy in place is difficult . It would take a full scale battle between a Council whose members had been elected on a wave of protest ; and a Centralist Commission .

    Who knows-after the upcoming Elections in France & Germany-we may begin to see a different Council of Ministers, with different mandates from their people.

    That would be interesting-but until then , I guess we will have never ending squabbling Summits kicking various cans down the road .

  2. Colin

    “I’m making a case about sneering, arrogant Euro Club loudmouths-correction-you are making it for me.

    Your 7 pm and 7.30 and 10.09posts , totally agree. The Remainers still don’t get it, so out of touch.

  3. Colin – FA with your 7.45 post above.

    Clearly many EU countries who voted to join the EU didn’t believe they were voting for political union any more than the UK did in 1973 / 1975.

  4. I do, though, think Peter Cairns view of the EU is allowable / reasonable – but like you don’t like the way anti-EU views are scoffed at as if of inferior intelligence.

    (I speak as a Eurosceptic Remainer, in contrast to the Remoaners who blame ‘the peasants’ for daring to vote).

  5. Colin: “the downgrading of nation state sovereignty to the level of local authorities. ”

    Even those like me who think the long term peace and prosperity of our continent will be best achieved by moving towards a United States of Europe, have no expectation that the component states will ever wither away or be suppressed. If the USA is taken as the federal model, then the US states, with their individual assemblies, legal systems, taxation rights and security forces, are very far from just local authorities.

    The EEC/EU has existed for almost 60 years and the degree of supranationalism achieved so far is tiny. At the current rate of progress, it will be several centuries before anything resembling a superstate emerges.

  6. @SOMERJOHN

    “The EEC/EU has existed for almost 60 years and the degree of supranationalism achieved so far is tiny. At the current rate of progress, it will be several centuries before anything resembling a superstate emerges.”

    True of course, but try telling that to the Brexit fanatics!

  7. @BT SAYS…

    “I do, though, think Peter Cairns view of the EU is allowable / reasonable – but like you don’t like the way anti-EU views are scoffed at as if of inferior intelligence.”

    It all depends on the motive and rationale for these views. I have some sympathy for those who criticise the EU in terms of efficiency and how to does things, but I have zero sympathy for those people who keep banging on about sovereignty and immigration without having a full understanding of the situation.

  8. “”I don’t know what Merkel is referring to when she talks about the ‘spirit of Bratislava’,” he said. “If things go on like this, instead of the spirit of Bratislava we’ll be talking about the ghost of Europe.”

    Matteo Renzi

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-italy-renzi-idUSKCN11O0H7

  9. Prominent Scottish author and journalist writes of his concerns about the state of play in Scotland:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14750547.David_Torrance__Confusion_and_fudge_at_the_very_heart_of_independence_argument/?ref=rss

  10. SOMERJOHN

    @” it will be several centuries before anything resembling a superstate emerges.”

    You can write at length about structure & procedure -but this is about what the voters of each European Country THINK. And that is informed by their PERCEPTIONS of effects on their LIVES.

  11. Colin
    A few months time could see Hollande, Merkel And Renzi gone. Will that be better for the Brexit negotiations or worse, though? I will be sorry to see Merkel go but she only has herself to blame with her open door immigration policy and the internal problems that has caused. Hollande was never going to get re elected from about 6 months into his term. No surprise on Renzi, the Italians change their premier like women change their mind.

  12. Tancred

    “but I have zero sympathy for those people who keep banging on about sovereignty and immigration without having a full understanding of the situation.”

    You may have zero sympathy, not surprising since you wanted to remain, but your not correct when you talk about people not having a full understanding of the situation. Many brexiters and most of those who post here do have a full understanding of the situation, its why they voted to leave the EU.

  13. TOH

    Agree with your 9.47 post. This idea that supposed superior intelligence gives you better judgement is nonsense and the opposite has often been proved – I say that without agreeing or disagreeing on whether Remainers on average have higher intelligence than Brexiters.

    So-called ‘good brains’ over-complicate a matter and can’t see the wood from the trees, too often. Plenty of them post on this site too.

  14. Colin: “You can write at length about structure & procedure -but this is about what the voters of each European Country THINK. And that is informed by their PERCEPTIONS of effects on their LIVES.”

    In other words, never mind the facts, it’s people’s perceptions that count.

    Indeed, and it is through manipulating those perceptions, and finding someone to blame, that demagogues have time and again bent the populace to their wills.

  15. It’s a shame that Merkel is going to be punished at the polls for doing the right thing, but that’s the nature of democracy. Merkel knew she was risking her political career on this, I’m sure her advisers pointed out polling and focus groups etc. Its a brave politician that takes such a risk, although some would say arrogant.

  16. SOMERJOHN

    Much though you clearly dislike it, in a democracy its what people think and how people vote that count, the point Colin is making.

  17. Colin,

    “You can write at length about structure & procedure -but this is about what the voters of each European Country THINK. And that is informed by their PERCEPTIONS of effects on their LIVES.”

    Well on that score the overwhelming majority across every country perceive the EU as a body that could and should do better but right now and for the forswear le future is the best hope they have. Still and hopefully for a long time most Europeans would rather stick together and tough it out hard though it might be that run for cover.

    Peter.

  18. TOH: ” in a democracy its what people think and how people vote that count, the point Colin is making.’

    And the point I’m making is that those thoughts and votes are all too easily manipulated. That’s how Hitler came to be democratically elected, and went on to annex Austria, dismember Czechoslovakia and demonise and persecute his own Jewish citizens. Was that all fine and dandy because it’s what the people voted for?

  19. SOMERJOHN

    I understood the point your making. My point was that your views demonstrate that you are not a democrat. Fair enough, but most of us are.

  20. TOH,

    “I understood the point your making. My point was that your views demonstrate that you are not a democrat. Fair enough, but most of us are.”

    But he is a democrat, it’s you who aren’t…Your a populist.

    Democracy is rule by majority consent for the good of all.

    Populism is rule by majority content for what the majority want for better or worse.

    SomerJohn like me believes that what Hitler wanted was wrong no matter how popular it was and that you shouldn’t just give the public what they want if it will in the long run be damaging even if it’s popular.

    No matter how many times Colin posts links to those making populist gains at the expense of those that have stood up to do the right thing in the face of a humanitarian crisis it won’t make them right.

    As I pointed out yesterday regardless of the mistakes the likes of Merkel have or haven’t made most of the political groups that are gaining at her expense are little more than opportunists taking advantage of tough times and a fair number are little short of racist thugs.

    To call yourself a democrat and then cheer on Parties that would happily trample it underfoot is the worst kind of “My Enemies Enemy”, because those you want to succeed would be worse than those you oppose.

    I am no fan of Hollande but the supporters of Le Penn have a good few in their ranks who in the name of France would happy burn British holiday homes in the Dordogne occupants and all.

    The EU might not be perfect, far from it, but it grew out of the wreckage caused by Facism and now we have people in the UK gleefully looking on as it rises again.

    Peter.

  21. Just possibly relevant to the spat on democracy bubbling away here, the Institute for Government has a new study on politician’s priorities based on a Populus poll conducted at the and of August [available here.

    Worth a read, although probably already out of date. Unsurprising that scoring political points and getting re-elected are the top two in the poll.

  22. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)
    The EU might not be perfect, far from it, but it grew out of the wreckage caused by Facism and now we have people in the UK gleefully looking on as it rises again.

    Well said, Peter

  23. Peter Cairns

    That is the worst kind of misrepresentation I think I have ever read. I cannot be bothered to give a detailed reply because i think your comments are basically beneath contempt.

    However to suggest either Colin or I are gleeful about the travails in the EU is just plain wrong because it’s not what we are doing. We are just pointing out that the EU is facing huge problems just as Remainers say the EU is facing economic issues. Nothing wrong with that, it’s true.

    As far as I am concerned I wish those countries who wish to remain in the EU “all the best” although as you well know I believe that the EU will fall apart because it has a currency which cannot work for all members, and the competing nationalist pressures of it’s members. I just don’t want to be part of it.

    What really get’s me cross is the superior tone taken by those “who think they know best” and that those who voted Brexit must be ignored. To my mind it is those people who want to ignore the democratic will of the people who are facists.

  24. that should have read

    …………….just as the Remainers say that Britain is facing economic issues.

  25. TOH: “I cannot be bothered to give a detailed reply….. What really get’s me cross is the superior tone taken by those “who think they know best” ”

    I think there are people posting here who are used to the cut and thrust of debate, to assessing others’ points, and to responding thoughtfully and rationally. And there are those who have strong opinions and are not used to having to justify them in the face of effective counter-arguments.

  26. THE OTHER HOWARD
    @*********
    “You may have zero sympathy, not surprising since you wanted to remain, but your not correct when you talk about people not having a full understanding of the situation. Many brexiters and most of those who post here do have a full understanding of the situation, its why they voted to leave the EU”
    ___________

    Exactly……It’s funny how prolific remoaners continue to tell us that those of us who voted BREXIT don’t have a full understanding of situation. I would actually say those who voted BREXIT went to some lengths to research the arguments for and against rather than sit there like passive urchins and let the establishment spoon feed them propaganda into voting remain.

    Most of the people who voted Brexit had concerns over border control, unlimited migration and unelected undesirables yet not one concern was addressed.

    The miserable doom & gloom remain campaign (and I exclude the SNP from this because they did at least try to put a positive case for staying the EU” got what they deserved and that is if you ignore peoples concerns then you get hung out like a rag-doll.

  27. To join the debate, I would like to remind all that opinions are not facts and therefore can not be wrong or write.

    Anyhow, during the brexit campaigns every time I saw an EU politician on TV I thought it made us more likely to leave. Some people just don’t like to be lectured at

  28. I don’t do that, at heart, everyone on this website is a democrat. We surely all believe in the sovereignty of the people, else what are we doing here?

    The abiding weakness of democracy, though, is the susceptibility of ‘the people’ to persuasion – the continuum runs from information through campaigning and propaganda to deceit, and a quick look the US, Poland or Russia shows just how hard it is for a democracy to stay safely in the part of that continuum that allows a genuine participative democracy, which depends critically on the INFORMED consent of the governed.

  29. Somerjohn

    The contemptible idea that strongly opinioned Brexiters on here are gleefully looking on at rising fascism gives too much away about the poster’s true thoughts of those that don’t share his opinions on the EU and undermines any more “effective counter-arguments” the said poster has also made.

  30. ROBERT

    Its difficult to know-so much political churn in prospect.

    SOMERJOHN

    @”In other words, never mind the facts, it’s people’s perceptions that count.”

    At the Ballot Box-Yes.

    @” it is through manipulating those perceptions, and finding someone to blame, that demagogues have time and again bent the populace to their wills.”

    True-or to turn that coin over, it is through dismissing & denigrating those concerns & calling them racist & zenophobic, that remote unresponsive elites in power push the populace to vote for those offering other ,so called populist solutions.

    Either regime stands guilty & is responsible for what may follow. One fans the flames of anger, whilst the other stands by & ignores the smoldering fire.

  31. @Peter Cairns -12.50 post.
    Well said and thank you for a clear exposition of your views on the EU rather than simply posting a link to a website somewhere.
    I think the distinction you make between populism and democracy hits the nail on the head.

  32. Fascism in Europe!! ……..Would that be the growing fascism in EU member states? I wrote on several occasions on UKPR before the EU referendum that one of the reasons I would be voting to give the EU the boot was because of the ugly rise in fascism in Poland, Hungary and the Baltic states.

    Fascism in the EU is a growing problem yet the EU appears to be reluctant to tackle it. When you have one never ending political entity imposing its will over everyone then I’m not surprised fascism surfaces.

    There is a real nasty undercurrent running through the EU and it has nothing to do with those of us who voted BREXIT

  33. Although of course this site is all about populism aka voters’ intentions.

  34. SOMERJOHN

    Trying the “superior line argument” again? There was no effective counter argument in Peter’s post, he was basically calling us facists.

  35. PETER CAIRNS ( SNP )……Unfortunately you disqualify yourself from further participation in the debate, I cite, ‘ Godwin’s Law ‘ . ;-)

  36. BT @ 12.58

    Precisely.

    They cannot stop themselves though-the willful unbiddable people have to be first mocked, then instructed in what is right. And if they still refuse to bend the knee, then such democratic franchise as they have left will have to be removed .

  37. COLIN

    Absolutely Colin, the attitude of some Remainers beggars belief..

  38. KEN

    Nice to hear from you, how are you? I think it’s a long time since you posted.

  39. Colin, BT, TOH and others

    At least Peter etc didn’t call you…… deluded homophobic, jew hating, Nazi stormtrooper, brick throwing cultist thugs

    I might have left a few things out!!!

  40. TOH

    There are plenty of sensible, level headed people on both sides. And of course millions of ordinary people with reasonable concerns about their lives.

    Unfortunately there are also extremists on both sides. Equally unfortunately , one of these is President of the EU Commission.

    I didn’t vote in the Referendum-I had reservations both ways. But Juncker & his ilk in UK have made me a Brexit supporter-albeit with considerable concerns.

    I rest such hopes as I have about the future on the proposition that Elected Heads of State on the Council call the shots ultimately. The trouble with this though, as Robert Newark surmises, is that we don’t know who they will be next year !

  41. CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    Actually in implying we were facists ( the cheering on bit in his post) it is arguable that he called us all those things.

  42. I think everyone needs to take a deep breath!

    Pointing out that democracies can be subverted through populist demagogues is hardly anti-democratic; it’s history, and history we all need to keep in mind given these dangerous times.

    Equally, pointing out the plethora of serious problems within the existing EU structures does not equate to cheerleading Facism.

    Colin is put off by the (relatively few) people in this country that gleefully report Junkers’ latest rantings as further evidence that the EU leaders will deservedly shaft us as we leave.

    I agree, but I am also put off by the (relatively few) people in this country who happily hold up Putin (who is a fascist, regardless of the label he chooses to wear) or Trump as politicians to admire because they are ‘strong nationalists’.

    God protect us from ‘strong nationalists’… I thought we knew where that road goes….

  43. Colin

    “There are plenty of sensible, level headed people on both sides. And of course millions of ordinary people with reasonable concerns about their lives.”

    Totally agree with you (Assiduosity comes to mind amongst Remainers, pity he dosen’t post now), but unfortunately you are also are right about the president of the EU Commission. As you know I voted Brexit out of conviction that it was the best outcome for the UK. It seems you now understand why many like myself voted Brexit whilst sharing your concerns that there will be at least a short term economic price to pay.

  44. BIGFATRON

    “I think everyone needs to take a deep breath!”

    Fair comment I think. A balanced post probably, needed to calm down all of us with ruffled feathers.

    Off to the allotment for some digging, highly recommended.

  45. @TOH

    “You may have zero sympathy, not surprising since you wanted to remain, but your not correct when you talk about people not having a full understanding of the situation. Many brexiters and most of those who post here do have a full understanding of the situation, its why they voted to leave the EU.”

    Well, you would say that wouldn’t you! I would not agree.

  46. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “Fascism in the EU is a growing problem yet the EU appears to be reluctant to tackle it. When you have one never ending political entity imposing its will over everyone then I’m not surprised fascism surfaces.”

    Where is the evidence for this? Neo-fascist parties in Europe are blocked because no other parties will work with them. The policy of ostracising the far-right has been very effective in many countries.

  47. Allan,

    “Most of the people who voted Brexit had concerns over border control, unlimited migration and unelected undesirables yet not one concern was addressed.”

    Half of all immigration was from out with the EU and we could stop that if we’d wanted any time but the UK government didn’t, that part can’t be blamed on the EU.

    We were also more than happy to let anyone who wanted go and live and work elsewhere in the EU, I don’t remember anyone from the Brexit side saying they should all be ordered home.

    If fewer people left or we could convince them to stay net migration could have been slashed, hell just not exporting our pensioners might have done that alone.

    As to “Unelected undesirables” as I have pointed out on numerous occasions we appoint civil servants to do specific jobs rather than elect them.

    The EU effectively uses the same system as us so are they wrong to use it or are we.

    The role and tasks of EU officials were decided and agreed by heads of state and they were chosen by heads of democratic governments and endorsed by a democratically elected Parliament.

    Whether it be EU or UK you no more elect senior Civil servants than you elect senior judges or army generals. They are appointed on merit based on skills, talent and experience.

    You can appoint a plonker or someone you don’t like can get elected, but you can hardly call the head of the commission an undesirable after he has been agreed by the leaders of twenty five democratic governments and endorsed by a parliament elected by millions across Europe.

    Put simply your concerns were addressed and fully, you just didn’t like the answers.

    I am happy for people to raise their concerns and to disagree when they are addressed, but I am fed up of people who don’t like the answers saying they haven’t been given answers.

    That’s where all this idea of me being superior comes from, you post your opinions and then I post mine and then you respond with indignation that I should suggest such a thing.

    I play the ball, you play the man. You struggle to match the argument on the issues so you decide to make it about the style.

    I’ve been in politics long enough to spot those who declare loudly what they think is right and then react with indignation when it’s challenged as if it’s some kind of outrage.

    Sadly I don’t think we can assume that everyone here is a democrat simply because we are lucky enough to live in a democracy.

    Nor, though I fully accept the Leave vote, do I believe that just because people voted for something that makes it right, or indeed in any way that popular and right equate to the same thing.

    I am feed up of the accusation that we so called “Remoaners” are challenging the decision or trying to undermine it, we’re not.

    We don’t think it’s a good idea and genuinely believe that it was based on a caricature of the EU not the real thing, something supported by all this nonsense about unelected officials.

    Apart from Owen Smith or Tim Fallon mounting a mock challenge for short term electoral gain, no one in the remain camp is looking for anything other than for us to get some clarity of where we are going and then to get on with it.

    All the paranoia about, opposition, back sliding and betrayal is coming from the leave side who, even though the decision is made, are fearful of some dastardly trick to thwart them from the cunning Euro elite hiding under the bed.

    I think the irony of all this is that far from being free of the EU and seeing it collapse a lot of the Brexiteers on here need the EU boggy man and will never be free of it.

    Even when in 2020 we are out they’ll still be happily blaming it for all our travails ever fearful of it’s imaginary machinations.

    Peter.

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