This is the third in a series of posts on the boundary review. There is a general overview of what is happening and why it’s controversial here, a summary of what the effects are and some of MPs who are losing their seats here. This final post has the full, seat-by-seat, estimates of how the votes cast at the last general election would have fallen out on the new boundaries in England and Wales.

Full notional results for England and Wales.

The changes in England and Wales result in the Conservatives losing 10 seats, Labour losing 28 seats, the Liberal Democrats losing 4 and the Greens losing Brighton Pavilion (though notional calculations like these risk underestimating the performance of parties with isolated pockets of support like the Greens and Lib Dems, so it may not hit them as hard as these suggest). The Scottish boundary commission don’t report until next month, but for obvious reasons the Conservatives and Labour can only lose a maximum of one seat each there, meaning that on these boundaries the Conservatives would have had a majority of around 40 at the last election.

The usual caveats I give for notional results apply – this is an accounting exercise, estimating what the ward level vote within each constituency would have been in 2015 (basing the distribution on the distribution at local elections) then reallocating the wards to their new constituencies and adding them back up again. If there is a radically different pattern of support in an area at local and national elections the figures might be misleading, if there are loads of independent candidates in any area (as in rural Wales, North Yorkshire or Cornwall) then the figures won’t be that accurate. If you know an area really well and you think the projections are wrong, then you are probably correct… but hopefully any such errors cancel out.

And a final caveat – this is purely a prediction of how the votes would have fallen out if the votes at the last election were counted on the new boundaries. They are certainly NOT a prediction of what would happen at the next election.

743 Responses to “Notional results for provisional English and Welsh boundaries”

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  1. Catmanjeff – “The one exception is ball size – a 3/16? ball is easier to write down than a 4.7625 mm ball. Imperial sizes are used all over Europe too.”

    At least our balls are still imperial then.

  2. @ProfHoward

    Those polls really sum up the differences between the north and the south, don’t they? The North is left-wing and in favour of big govt and an NHS, and the low interest in a united ireland reflects their belief that the south can never supply the big govt they want. The south is right-wing and in favour of lower tax above all other priorities.

    The political divide is bigger than the religious divide.

  3. CMJ

    Ah, but they call the inch “Zoll” on the continent, so Brits can’t win.

    Actually the metric measures predate the imperial measures in the UK as legal measurement (former 1818, latter 1824).

    Anyway, instead of asking for 7 ounces of ham (roughly 200 g or 20 decagram), the lady asked for three thick slices today in the local shop. Yet, it was roughly the weight,

  4. Prof Howard

    Thanks for the links to the Irish polls.

    The tables for the MORI NI poll are here

    My knowledge of NI geography (and politics!) is poorer than I would like, but I noted that In Armagh, Fermanagh & Tyrone and Derry there were more in favour of a Border poll, than against.

    Does this just reflect the proportion of the two communities in these areas – as Catholics overall supported a border poll, while the larger Protestant community overwhelmingly rejected the idea?

  5. Candy

    Its interesting to see that taxation has such a big effect on the preferences in the south and the conclusion you draw is reasonable.

    It is interesting in the context of what you say that the EU in the last couple of weeks has asked Apple to repay Ireland $10billion in avoided tax and the Irish government is opposing the EU! Of course they don’t want to upset Apple, but that’s a huge sum for Ireland when you think of what it could buy for them. Not sure the UK government could get away with a similar such stand, on the side of the big corporations.

  6. Old Nat

    “Does this just reflect the proportion of the two communities in these areas – as Catholics overall supported a border poll, while the larger Protestant community overwhelmingly rejected the idea”

    I think your conjecture is reasonable. Though one could also argue these areas might be more affected by a hard brexit and its potential disruption border-wise.

  7. @ProfHoward

    Silicon Valley has had a huge influence on the south, they’ve imported their culture and economic ideas into RoI.

    Whereas NI is still influenced by western scotland. And England, which is the paymaster of the UK, is fairly centrist, people like low taxes but not at the expense of things like the NHS and have understood the trade-offs.

    I suppose it’s an example of how corporations can change the cultures of small countries but not big ones.

  8. Old Nat

    Thank you for those cross tabulations.

    I found the age distribution and nationality (British, Irish, NI) tables interesting.

    There has been much discussion of who the “Northern Irish” are. The census revealed (for the first time) that this is quite a popular identity. Previously this had been played down with a British and Irish choice usually offered to people. The evidence from various sources suggest that Northern Irish gets a reasonable amount of take up from both religious groups. The figures from this poll suggest they are pretty similar to the NI average.

    As for age its quite interesting that support for a UI is highest among the middle age groups, and lower for younger and older cohorts.

    Of course there are caveats associated with statistical significance at this level.

  9. Colin,

    “@”What next; Living under a tarpaulin by the road was “Luxury!”.”

    I rest my case.”

    You don’t have a case!


  10. ProfHoward – “There has been much discussion of who the “Northern Irish” are.”

    “Northern Irish” is what the people of England, Scotland and Wales call the people of NI. We don’t refer to them as “Irish”, but “Northern Irish”. The Irish are the people of the south.

    So it’s a UK identity and subculture.

  11. “I don’t think Thatcher would have backed Brexit – at least not without single market membership.”
    @ Tancred September 18th, 2016 at 3:11 pm

    Perhaps. But if she wants UKIP to become the new opposition and to keep up Brexit pressure, an admission such as that isn’t going to help. The north, on the whole, hated (hates?) Margaret Thatcher so to claim an association with her is, I contend, a political misstep.

    Many of these Brexiteers will be ex-steel and mine workers, for example. If you want to grab these votes admitting you approve of their arch enemy is not a clever move. Unless. of course, the allure of Brexit with its streets paved with gold is the stronger attraction.

    Incidentally, she also said she admired Churchill; now that is someone who would have never voted for Brexit, so that is an interesting admission as well.

    I would have replied saying I couldn’t think of any real hero. My politics are based on my own experience. Trying to improvise on your feet is always dangerous!

    Hey ho. We will see if it causes any damage.


    You just don’t understand -do you.

    I’m not making a case about the best way to measure surface area !!

    I’m making a case about sneering, arrogant Euro Club loudmouths-correction-you are making it for me.

  13. Prof Howard

    I also had a look at the “Behaviour & Attitudes” survey of Irish citizens on a cross-border poll and how they would vote.

    Despite 67% supporting a United Ireland, the “resilience test” introduced in the tax questions suggests that it “remains more a romantic aspiration for the average citizen” (p24).

    Does anyone know if there was similar polling in Germany, prior to reunification, and any results? I did a quick search, but couldn’t find any data.

  14. Colin,

    Hey that’s uncalled for…I am not sneering…. I am mocking, there’s a difference.

    Anyone justifying clinging to an archane system because of woolly nostalgia who can’t do better to justify it than suggest it’s opponents are Un-British deserves to be mocked!

    Try getting off your high Oxen for a bit.


  15. Candy:

    The Republic are very wedded to their low corporation tax model. I think they believe it has led to a lot of the investment and high-salary jobs from America. Tax is 12.5% there.

    I believe George Osborne has been inspired by the Irish model and that’s why he has cut corporation tax and had plans to cut it more.

    Regarding the Northern Irish. Its not an identity that was officially recognized until the 2011 census. But it is seen as a somewhat more neutral identity than the older British v Irish choice. Of course the census asks people to tick “all that apply” so one gets people choosing all three.

    It was a surprise to some people when the 2011 census came out just how popular the identity “Northern Irish” is. That led to a lot of people wondering who they are – are they protestants, catholics, or others? All the evidence suggests that Northern Irish is an identity that draws in support from both main traditional religious communities.

    As for what people in England, Scotland, and Wales. I have found they use a variety of terms; sometimes Irish sometimes Northern Irish. I think people (to the extent they are aware of the issue) want to make sure not to offend so if they think that someone is more comfortable with one than the other they would use that.

  16. Prof Howard

    Interesting comment from you about the “Northern Irish” identity.

    To outsiders it has always seemed to be a possible option that might (eventually) resolve the forced binary question of identity in that part of the province that the events of the past have created.

  17. @OldNat

    Regarding Germany, see the following, it has an opinion poll comparison between 1991 and 2009:

    Reunification took place in 1990, and I don’t think there was polling about it, it was rushed through very fast.

    The west germans were fairly positive about reunification in both polls, but in the post unification poll in 1991, 54% thought they had unified too quickly.

  18. Oldnat

    The Northern Irish identity.

    Some suspicious souls claim that the BBC and Northern Ireland Office are trying to manufacture this identity. Some are fearful or dismissive of it (or both!).

    For example if you are strongly opposed to partition, you might regard it as unhelpful if people start to think in terms of being Northern Irish. Indeed Sinn Féin’s policy has been to avoid the term Northern Ireiand altogether.

    But in recent months there has been some sign of nationalist parties (including Sinn Féin) taking a different view: how about having a federal Ireland, free from British rule, that retains the entity of Northern Ireland? That way the sense of identity loss in a referendum situation can be reduced – you can stay Northern Irish after the vote. Its a compromise given that they didn’t like the whole concept of NI. So I think the growth of Northern Irishness as revealed in the 2011 census has made some impacts on society and politics and it will be interesting to see how it develops.


    Keep it up old chap-you and Jean Claude will no doubt mock the voters in the Berlin City Election today , and the Hungarian Referendum on 2 October, and the French Presidential & German Federal Elections in 2017-and still not understand that the results are caused by the attitudes of people like you towards them.

  20. Candy

    Thanks for the link, but what I was interested in was if there had been any polling in (West) Germany about reunification with the East, prior to it becoming an imminent possibility.

    In other words, something similar to the Irish “Behaviour and Attitudes” poll.

  21. @Colin

    To be clear, are you.seriously suggesting that in the 21st century imperial measurements are preferable to metric?

  22. Prof Howard

    “But in recent months there has been some sign of nationalist parties (including Sinn Féin) taking a different view: how about having a federal Ireland, free from British rule, that retains the entity of Northern Ireland?”

    Thanks. I hadn’t spotted that development. In the context of “post modern” nationalism, it makes sense.

    In some ways there are similarities to Scottish ideas – both Salmond’s “Indy-lite” and Sturgeon’s exploration (genuine I think) of the possibilities of Scotland remaining in both the EU and UK.

    Binary identity and politics is the easy way! Redefining how they work in an interdependent world is a damn sight more difficult – though probably a more advantageous approach.


    To be clear-I am not arguing the merits or demerits of any system of measurement.

    If you had read my post at 2.56 today you would have understood that.

  24. @OldNat

    I don’t think there was any polling done, it was rushed through at top speed.

    According to wiki, the berlin wall fell in May 1989, the GDR had their first free elections in March 1990, signed an agreement to unify in August 1990 and it came into effect by 3rd Oct 1990. They weren’t given a chance to think about it, it was steemrollered through.

    The only clue to people’s feelings in the post-unification polls dealing with a fait accompli, is that in 1991 54% thought they unified too fast.

  25. No he’s suggesting favouring the metric system is a sign that you support a European Super State…..which is why I am being so sarcastic.

    People who come up with that kind of nonsense can’t stand sarcasm!


  26. Candy,

    The Berlin Wall fell in November 1989.

    The biggest mistake with unification was the conversion of the East German currency to Deutschemarks at a 1:1 ratio, which hit East Germany with a massive deflationary shock at the worst possible moment.

  27. What is it about Trump and building walls?

    Now he wants a 3km wall in County Clare to protect a golf course.

    “Mr Trump had become frustrated that he needs to comply with local planning regulations and has threatened to close the golf resort if his permit is not approved.”

    Rattle. pram. :-)

  28. @Colin September 18th, 2016 at 2:56 pm

    “One of the central themes of Referendum Vote analysis seems to be a reaction against people like Peter Cairns, who , from a distant, unconnected ,sedentary position ; derided people with an affection for a way of life which doesn’t conform to Eurospeak Convergence Criteria , and The Citizen of Europe.

    Perhaps a few of these deluded millions might actually have been aware that every attempt to impose these EuroNorms has been a continuing disastrous failure.”

    I agree many Brexiters see Europe as a disaster. But of those Brexiters I have met they all haven’t got a clue what the EU is in any case. This article puts the other side of one motivation for the EU:

    “Europe Through the Eyes of the Next Generation

    A quarter million young Europeans spent this summer rolling through the Continent on an Interrail ticket. Conversations with the travelers reveal a younger generation that understands the EU better than their elders might think.”

    As to imperial measurement that is clearly stupid. It is all fine saying you weigh 12 stone 6 pounds, but when you have five people with different weights computing the average is just mind-numbingly stupid. Express everything in a normalised system such as metric and the problem goes away. That’s why we moved from 240 pence and 12 shillings to a pound to a decimal system.

    My kids are around 30. They don’t know imperial; maybe inches, but that’s all. In 40 years time this objection to imperial will be a distant memory. And that is what the EU is about; over time these differences will fade. Or at least that is the plan. Going back to 27 individual countries is not the way forward, and if the EU was to fail there would be a very strong need for some other political association to replace it.

    Alas for those wanting to see the end of the EU, that may be wishful thinking.

  29. Seems that winning the euroref hasn’t stopped the English/British Nats in the Tory party continuing to argue for an extreme implementation of Brexit.

    If voters don’t like divided parties, then English voters aren’t going to have much of a choice!

  30. Oldnat: “Now he wants a 3km wall in County Clare to protect a golf course.”

    Funnily enough, I walked through this golf course last year. It stands between the road and a stunning public beach. The only way through is on a narrow, twisty path marked (if memory serves) “access for surfers”. It really reeked of trying to exclude the hoi polloi. It would be very sad if he got his way and built a wall. Do the Americans really want as president someone who idolises Putin and emulates GDR dictators?

  31. Meanwhile, the UK can’t even talk to other countries about trade deals until they have left the EU, without it costing them millions.

    Seems the Brexiteers hadn’t thought much about the consequences of what they were urging people to vote for.

  32. AL

    @”I agree many Brexiters see Europe as a disaster”

    You are confused- The European Union is the disaster. Europe predates it by some way-and will outlive it too.

  33. Somerjohn

    “Do the Americans really want as president someone who idolises Putin and emulates GDR dictators?”

    It seems entirely possible that some of them do. After all, 20% of Trump supporters have rejected the founding principles of the Republican Party so thoroughly that they think Lincoln was wrong to emancipate the slaves.

  34. Al Urqa
    “My kids are around 30. They don’t know imperial; maybe inches, but that’s all. ”

    I bet they know pints and miles because those are still the legal units. And how tall do they say they are? 6 foot, or 1.9 whatever metres?

    I mix with some people under 30 and have a range of children aged from 34 to 46. They all use imperial units where appropriate in day to day life.

    Metric’s fine for scientific and perhaps engineering use, though the ‘thou’ was vital to precision engineering.

    There’s a couple points that haven’t been made. For instance the metric system, being based on 10 can only be divided to give a whole number by 2 and 5, whereas many imperial measures have more divisors – e.g the foot and shilling, divisible by 2,3,4,6. The pound divisible by 2,4,8 etc. This is convenient in everyday life.

    There are also practical problems with not having products available in imperial measures. I once had to replace two courses of bricks in my house because a gutter had been leaking for years. The old bricks were 9″, but these were unavailable. The bricklayer had a real problem fitting metric-sized bricks into the gaps, and the result was very wide mortar joints, causing a weaker result. It didn’t matter on my house, but what if a railway bridge or a sewer was being repaired?

    Laszlo was being disingenuous when he said that imperial measures only came in around 1830. That was merely the latest codification of a system that went back at least to Magna Carta.

    There’s no reason why the two systems shouldn’t co-exist. After all, as others have pointed out, a lot of the Continentals still use old measures, though metric has been in use far longer over there.

    Regarding the topic of this thread, I note that some opponents of the reorganisiation say that it is invalid because it doesn’t take account of the very latest registrations. This ignores the fact that the current boundaries are based on registrations at least 10 years old. I’m not so sure that the reduction in seats is a good idea though, as it reduces the number of backbenchers and their ability to hold the governemnt to account.

  35. Colin,

    If the EU is such a disaster why are Countries still queueing to join, the same with the Euro. I suppose you think it’s because whole nations are deluded.

    There are some disgruntled members and those moaning have gathered strength since the financial crash, but then descent always rises in tough times.

    The Visigrad group might be upset about having to deal with so many of the refugees fleeing the aftermath of the Arab Spring, but that is as much the EU’s fault as it is Clintons.

    What they are over looking is how EU support and then membership since the Berlin Wall fell has brought them billions in investment, access to new markets and allow there citzeans to travel and work beyond their borders.

    Much more importantly it has allowed them to build democracies, freeing them from autocratic government, rampant corruption and introduced the rule of law over arbitrary abuse of power.

    There is something unseemly about Brexiteers trumpeting the antics of the right in Europe when many of them have scant regards for the values they like to think exemplify what is best about Britain.

    Cheering on a xenophobic Hungarian Government that is strangling a free press because they hate the EU more, is little different from Trump praising Putin because he’s a strong popular leader and overlooking that he is also a corrupt thug.

    What as I have said before is the root cause of the EU’s many failing is nothing more than the enormity of the task it faces; attempting to bring unity of purpose and direction to a continent so diverse and large, much of which is still growing out of half a century of dictatorship, in the face of the twin challenges of global financial instability and 5million refugees on it’s borders.

    Even if you support Brexit or, like me, accept it and hope it works out, not to wish the EU the best in facing the challenges ahead is just spiteful.


  36. Pete B

    “it reduces the number of backbenchers and their ability to hold the government to account.”

    But that reduction in backbenchers only applies to the governments side (since all other MPs are expected to “hold the government to account” by making speeches that the government is crap.

    However, how many government MPs actually do “hold the government to account”?

    They may be contemptuous of government policy, but they normally troop through the appropriate lobby in support of it (or at worst, bugger off to one of the many bars instead).

    “Holding the government to account” is probably one of the most nonsensical descriptions of what MPs actually do!

  37. ON
    What about Moggy, Redwood and others? Though I agree that there are a lot of time-serving wastrel lobby-fodder. Perhaps you’re right, the fewer the better.

  38. @Colin September 18th, 2016 at 10:09 pm

    “You are confused- The European Union is the disaster. Europe predates it by some way-and will outlive it too.”

    So what would you replace it with? In 1919 Europe made a mess of reconciliation. They got a second chance after 1945. The EU is not perfect, but that is because the material it works with — disparate nations — are complex.

    So assume they get a third chance, because the EU fails. What lessons would be learned from the previous two attempts? The Europeans chose political union, because they saw that as the only way to prevent the conflict.

    Were they wrong? If so, why?

  39. @PETE B September 18th, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    “I bet they know pints and miles because those are still the legal units. And how tall do they say they are? 6 foot, or 1.9 whatever metres?…”

    Yes they do. But you go to the supermarket and everything is in litres and kilograms. You compare products again by normalising to a common measure, 100g or 1ltr, etc. Millilitres to centilitres to litres: easy. Ounces to pounds to stones to hundredweight — hmm. No thanks, kgs every time. Fluid ounces — is that the American system or the British system?

    There will always be legacy requirements where metric doesn’t fit exactly. But you go to B&Q, etc and everything is in metric. It is simply the most sensible way to move forward.

    I remember the NASA probe that crashed into Mars because the two teams used the two different systems. People are used to the system they are brought up on. The correct answer is to get everyone onto metric. Older people may not like it; younger people will not care.

  40. Al Urqa
    “But you go to the supermarket and everything is in litres and kilograms……….The correct answer is to get everyone onto metric.”

    Why? I bought some milk at the supermarket today and it was marked as 4 pints and 2.272 litres. I don’t mind it being marked in both, but which is the more sensible everyday measurement?
    Also, if I may join your conversation with Colin, you said “The Europeans chose political union, because they saw that as the only way to prevent the conflict.
    Were they wrong? If so, why?”

    No, they weren’t wrong. Churchill thought it would be a good idea for them – but not us. It’s always the Continentals who start the wars – Philip of Spain, Napoleon, Kaiser Bill, Hitler etc, so if they think joining together makes war less likely – good. It just doesn’t need to involve us. We need to look wider and not huddle in a tiny corner of the world.

  41. Pete B

    ” It’s always the Continentals who start the wars”

    The Brits created an Empire without fighting anyone! peaceful Brits. :-)

  42. Pete B,

    “It’s always the Continentals who start the wars”

    Yes and we stayed out of them all and weren’t in any way involved in the machinations that lead up to them or tried to influence the outcome to our own advantage.

    Oh and don’t we occupy a big chunk of France for a while, not to mention a a various points occupying Ireland and Scotland in the British Isles.

    Oh and that’s without effectively occupying large chunks of Africa, Asia and the New World before we got chucked out.

    Maybe it’s not so much we didn’t start wars on the continent as we’re happy just to pick on people smaller elsewhere.

    And before I get blames for being unpatriotic like a few days ago by people who just don’t get it I am deliberately portraying an equally simplistic opposite view to show how unrealistic your view is so that we can find a jointly more balanced middle ground.

    Oh and don’t Churchill and De Gaul seriously discuss the prospect of uniting Britain and France near the end of the war ?


  43. ON and Peter C
    Yes obviously, the context was European wars, rather than police actions to help our civilising exploits around the world ( :-) )

    Yes, Churchill did propose union with France, but it was early in the war, as a desperate attempt to resist Hitler (and get help from the French fleet which we subsequently had to sink). I looked this up, and to my surprise, found this on Wikipedia. I can’t vouch for it’s accuracy
    “At the 5 p.m. [French] cabinet meeting, many called it a British “last minute plan” to steal its colonies, and said that “be[ing] a Nazi province” was preferable to becoming a British dominion.”

  44. To chip in on the general history of the EU/EEC. We had the opportunity to sign the Treaty of Rome, but declined. We were, after all, an Empire, and had no interest in these pesky Europeans interfering in our Empire.

    Thanks for the offer, but no thank you. Then Suez (1956). Opps, our Empire is impotent! Can we join your club?

    De Gaul, that friendly European, turned round and said ‘non!’ Even though the six hadn’t signed the Rome treaty they said they were too far down the road to allow Britain to join, so we didn’t. We tried a few times in the 60s, but repeatedly we heard ‘non.’ The anglo-saxon culture, said de Gaul, was incompatible with the European on.

    We finally got in in 1973. But it seems he was right all along!

    [Pesky French]

  45. Fun and games could be ba Know!


  46. Pete B


    But you have forgotten the UK’s peaceful police actions in most European countries, at some time or another.

  47. ok, last one before I go off to bed.

    @Peter Cairns (SNP) September 18th, 2016 at 11:36 pm
    “Oh and don’t we occupy a big chunk of France for a while, not to mention a a various points occupying Ireland and Scotland in the British Isles.”

    Just to point out the Plantagenets. That was an English dynasty, that lasted for a few hundred years (Wikipedia says from 1154 to 1485). Didn’t we own much of France, and our rulers spoke French? We ARE European, and just as France is different from Germany and Italy, so we are different, too. But we also have massive amounts in common.

    After all, we still have the call: La Reyne le veult!

  48. Al Urqa
    “Then Suez (1956). Opps, our Empire is impotent! Can we join your club?”

    Maybe not?

    This from Wikipedia re Suez crisis (no knowledge if it’s true)
    “French Prime Minister Guy Mollet proposed a union between the United Kingdom and the French Union with Elizabeth II as head of state and a common citizenship. As an alternative, Mollet proposed that France join the Commonwealth. British Prime Minister Anthony Eden rejected both proposals and France went on to join the Treaty of Rome,”

    Interesting historical nuggets emerging. Goodnight all.

  49. Al Urqa

    That England’s Edward III claim to the French throne was reflected in the inclusion of the fleur-de-lys in the English royal coat of arms – which didn’t end until 1801 – might suggest that the English Establishment were very slow learners! :-)

  50. @ OldNat

    The Duke of Normandy retains certain of her territories: La Reine, notre Duc.

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