The Times this morning had new polling on the junior doctors strike (the fieldwork was completed shortly before the strike later this month was called off). It shows that more of the public support the strike than oppose it, but only just, and that support has fallen significantly since earlier in the year.

42% of people said they thought junior doctors were right to go on strike (down from 53% when the question was last asked in April), 38% think they are wrong (up from 29%). While people still think the government are more to blame for the dispute ending in industrial action, support for the strike is clearly flagging.

The decision to move to five day long strikes also looks risky in terms of public support. 34% of the public say they support junior doctors taking five day strike action, 48% of people say they are opposed.

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705 Responses to “Latest polling on the doctors strike”

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  1. Just completed an analysis of 2016 YG VI by 2015 GE Party ID:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDT2VfeWR4RWc1bU0/view?usp=sharing

    Conservative VI

    The most notable trend is the number of 2015 UKIP supporters that now support them since the EU Referendum.

    It also looks like they have a pinched a few percent of Labour’s 2015 vote.

    Labour VI

    The biggest trend is number of 2015 Labour voters supporting Labour now dropping off (about a 6% drop).

    Lib Dem VI

    This looks quite stable – as it were.

    UKIP VI

    They have lost some support for 2015 Conservatives and 2015 UKIP voters.

    On the plus side for them it looks like they have taken VI from a little of 2015 Labour voters.

  2. @WELSH BORDERER

    “I agree. Maybe my parents would have compared it with the “phoney war” from Sept 39 until the invasion of France in Spring 1940. The enormity of Brexit – and its threat to the UK – is not yet fully understood, as the threat from Hitler was underestimated until he swept round the Maginot Line and cut off the BEF.”

    Yes, though in case the real Nazi loonies are the internal ones. Theresa May is the Chamberlain-like appeaser who is so busy trying to lick the rear ends of the 52% that she is blind to the scale of the disaster that has occurred.

    “The media are behaving as if it is they are under an unwritten obligation to downplay any bad news already arriving, such as a de facto Devaluation which will reignite inflation, the end of interest rates for modest savers, and negative inward investment decisions (eg Ford at Bridgend).”

    True – and I think the knee jerk reaction from the BBC is largely because it is fearful of being seen as the pro-remain media. I don’t think The Guardian and The Independent are downplaying the risks of Brexit though. The most disturbing thing about Brexit that has been consistently downplayed is the rise of hate crime and also petty nastiness towards EU immigrants. This worries me more than any economic consequences.

    “Although it may seem unlikely to most people at present I wonder if the Brexit fall-out could ultimately usher in not an Election, but a grand Coalition in order to preserve public morale and order ? Just what does this Government propose to do when the public refuse to accept the kind of consequences of which so-called Project Fear warned – eg large falls in the buying powers of wages and pensions as several crucial manufacturing and service industries all lose major markets at the same time?”

    A coalition between whom? Corbyn and May? I think flying pigs are more likely. The only possible coalition would be a Tory-UKIP one, but I also see that as unlikely. Once there are serious economic consequences, the proverbial brown matter will hit the fan. The leave camp will start to fragment, as the ‘soft leavers’ will drift into uncertainty, while the ‘hard leavers’, fanatics as they are, will try to shift all the blame for any problems onto the EU and then we’ll see yet more jingoism and calls for even tougher isolationism from Europe.

    “What it may teach us in the longer term is how useless Referenda are in trying to solve extraordinarily complex problems. They were just a short term fix for Cameron. Which fixed nothing.”

    Referenda should be banned, because they give exaggerated power to the masses of people who know little or nothing of politics and vote on an emotive basis, not a logical one. There are plenty of people even on this forum who are armchair prime ministers despite having not the slightest idea of what they are talking about. In the country at large this tendency is greatly magnified. It’s ok for a butcher, baker or candlestick maker to vote in a general election as they would be voting for politicians, but would you honestly let any of these people of limited education and intellect determine actual government policy, especially on such an important issue as EU membership? Lunacy. This is what referenda do – they empower the masses. And this is dangerous, very dangerous.
    As for Cameron, he was a weak leader who panicked in the run-up to the 2015 general election when it appeared that Miliband might beat him and UKIP steal enough Tory votes to let Labour in. So he called the referendum as a sop to the right wing of his party and in an effort to check the progress of UKIP. I think Cameron was genuinely frightened of UKIP after their spectacular win in the European elections. He gambled with the future of the nation, and we all lost – not just him. He will still have his money to take away any concerns, but many ordinary people will be paying a high price for Cameron’s recklessness.

  3. CMJ

    Thanks for that. I always find the percentage of “loyal” party supporters interesting – and revealing.

    Have you the data in the reverse format – ie where you look at the 2015 voters by their new VI?

    That might give a clearer indication of whether there has been a consistent shift from Party X to Party Y – or if the “new” VI is bouncing around from one alternative to another?

  4. CMJ

    Thank you for these charts.

    It would be interesting to see what’s going on with the DKs, but it is not adjusted, so it cannot be included.

    The Cons are certainly spreading. It would be interesting to know if there were similar thing ps here as in forex (if a certain barrier is broken, then there is a growth to the next barrier) – I doubt it.

    It looks like that there is a 4-6% permeable boundaries between parties. However, there are some odd swaps. It could just be the noise of the data, but also some underlying changes.

    Well, anything, apart from the Conservative voting intention, is quite doubtful at least until the outcome of the Labour leadership election (and perhaps, likely?, beyond).

  5. Charles

    ” or British phlegm and good sense?”

    Sounds right Charles. I think most people accept May’s view that she will not expose out negotiating tactics to the press and public and therefore the EU at this stage. The Remainers are trying unsuccessfully to force her hand.

    WELSH BORDERER

    ” They were just a short term fix for Cameron. Which fixed nothing.”

    Looks like it is getting us out of the EU which is great for Britains future, IMO of course.

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