Tomorrow’s Times has a new YouGov poll of the Labour leadership electorate (party members from before the cut-off date, trade union affiliates and £25 registered supporters) showing Jeremy Corbyn with a robust lead over Owen Smith. Topline voting intentions excluding don’t knows are Corbyn 62%, Smith 38%. 8% of voters say don’t know.

Jeremy Corbyn leads convincingly in all three parts of the electorate: among party members he is ahead by 57% to 43%, among trade union affiliates he is ahead 62% to 38%, among registered supporters he is ahead by a daunting 74% to 26%. If the numbers are broken down by length of membership Owen Smith actually leads among those who were members before the last general election, but they are swamped by the influx of newer members who overwhelmingly back Jeremy Corbyn.

The poll was conducted over the weekend, so after Labour members will have started to vote. The actual contest still has three weeks to go, but with people already voting and that sort of lead to make up Owen Smith’s chances do not look good.

Looking to the future, 39% of the selectorate (and 35% of full party members) think it is likely the party will split after the election. 45% of party members who support Owen Smith say that if some MPs opposed to Corbyn were to leave and form a new party they would follow them (29% of Smith supporters say they are likely to leave the party if Corbyn wins anyway… though I’m always a little wary of questions like that, it’s easier to threaten to leave than to actually do it)

YouGov also asked about mandatory re-selection. Party members are divided right down the middle – 46% of full members think MPs should normally have the right to stand again without a full selection, 45% of members think that MPs should face a full reselection before every election. The split is very much along the Smith-Corbyn divide – 69% of Corbyn supporters are in favour of reselections, 77% of Smith supporters are opposed.

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1,056 Responses to “YouGov/Times poll of Labour leadership race”

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  1. KESTER LEEK

    I think personalities and personal characteristics are important for a lot of people in choosing a leader and that includes members of political parties. I voted for Yvette Cooper in the leadership campaign and this was partly influenced by the fact that I would have really liked Labour to have chosen a woman as leader. I put Jeremy Corbyn as my second choice and this was partly influenced by my view of him as a politician of personal integrity. In both cases I said PARTLY influenced but I think both points are valid and I can’t see why they would offend anyone.

  2. Not much change in the ICM poll, May still enjoying her honeymoon and labour still tearing each other apart

  3. BAZINWALES
    Even with only one “3rd Party” most Labour MPs who defected to the SDP lost their seats. It is not so attractive an option now so they would have to be very committed to jump.

    That will be the probability if there’s a “hard” Brexit, although an LD and pro-EU parties comeback may occur, particularly when rural areas realise what they will lose when CAP, CFP and other regional payments stop.

    The situation I mentioned above would only come about with a “soft” Brexit, when UKIP would probably make serious inroads on Con, gifting Lab especially in the marginals.

    ALLAN CHRISTIE
    It will be interesting to see if there will be a split on the right but I think that would be less plausible than a Labour split.

    I could imagine one or two Con MPs joining UKIP in the event of a “soft” Brexit, but the danger to Con would be more likely a split of votes between them & UKIP in marginal seats.

    Something also relevant that we haven’t discussed recently on these threads is also the ongoing police investigation into the Con “bus” issue. That could still cause a loss of the Con overall majority in the current HoC. With even the DUP rolling back from a hard border they would have few “friends” to make up the numbers.

  4. @CR
    Irish govt doesn’t want the 13 billion pounds that the EU says it owes Ireland
    ——
    Quite right too.

    If the Irish Govt. wants to offer an attractive tax deal to a particular company, to generate investment and jobs, that is their prerogative as a sovereign state.

    The EU has no standing in the matter, and should be told to politely bog off.

  5. @David Carrod

    ” —–That sounds like the same old, same old, Labour party dogma – tax the rich, borrow without worrying about the consequences – that has failed this country every time they’ve been in power (1945-50 excepted).”

    ————-

    Well this is the party line, but your angle on investment isn’t borne out by the data. For eggers, after the war, national debt was naturally very high, but with an investment in infrastructure, education etc. we went on to enjoy two decades of rising prosperity until the oil crisis created a nasty set of problems.

    Even then, if you look at the performance of Labour after the oil price spike hit, causing inflation and economic problems in many countries, they got inflation down from 25% to 8%, got the deficit coming down and the economy growing again. Crucially they also kept a lid on unemployment.

    Then the second oil price spike hit, beginning in 78 and peaking under Thatch, messing things up again. But the record under Thatch of dealing with oil price issues not as good. Deficit went down but then back up again, inflation stayed stubbornly high, and lost a lot of jobs.

    The collapse in the oil price ushering in a world boom saved the day. And that’s the point, you have to look at prevailing conditions, compare like with like.

    Thus, of course the deficit shot up under Labour after the banking crash, it took out 7% of the economy, hitting tax receipts and upping welfare costs. But crucially, we got back to growth real fast, over 2% growth inside two years, an investment that was clearly working like after the war, and could have thus brought deficit down, but then coalition killed off the investment and we lost the growth.

    Labour didn’t spend to invest and get growth in the Seventies as it happens, they couldn’t because might stoke inflation. That was the difficukty with the oil price rises, they thwarted a conventional response.

  6. @Catman

    “My son (aged nine) was never forced into any beliefs, but recently told us he wants to be vegan like my wife and myself.”

    ——–

    Maybe it’s genetic??!!

  7. “@Rach

    ” was concerned about indoctrinating my kids so I always argued the right wing point of view, it worked a little too well! My son says he’s a Communist”

    ——

    maybe it’s genetic??!!…

  8. Carfrew

    “Maybe its genetic??!!… ”

    Ahh so all we have to do is out breed the other side

  9. THE OTHER HOWARD
    I stand by my statement, many either think its fair or don’t care and the only real voting recently on the subject saw the status quo (FPTP) winning comfortably.

    You are, of course, entitled to your view. I was merely pointing out that next UK GE could put the Cons in trouble should they negotiate the sort of “soft” Brexit including passporting of services which the city seems to want.

    Re the AV referendum, it was partly lost because of the LD’s unpopularity but also because it was a trial run for Project Fear thanks to most of the press being against it.

    It should have been a warning to the SNP of what they would face in the full-on Project Fear campaign against independence but sadly the lesson was not learned.

  10. @MRJONES

    “Borrowing enriches the lenders and concentrates wealth in the financial sector.”

    ———–

    Which may have been why John coupled it with redistribution etc.

    in the end, there are different ways of doing the borrowing, and if inflation isn’t. an issue, e.g. when not at full employment, can print some anyway… you can claw it back later if necessary…

  11. @Rach

    “Ahh so all we have to do is out breed the other side”

    ———-

    well see, if peeps prefer Tory boys, they can dilute the genes!

    (of course, dilution works both ways, but can worry ablut that later…)

  12. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “Jehovahs witnesses!! who mentioned them?

    A few weeks ago I was over in Stevenage looking after my cousins wee one (so she could get a night oot) and ordered a Domino’s pizza. 10 minutes later the door went and I thought, my my Domino’s have certainly given their staff a revamp..shock horror out came the pamphlet and kingdom hall mantra and then came the inevitable door slam.

    I don’t take to doorstep preaching that well.”

    ———–

    careful you don’t be giving them ideas Allan, or they will take over the pizza delivery business and you’ll be greated by JWs every time you order a deep filled crust!!

  13. Oh the irony!! Jeremy Corbyn was opposed to the fact that he should have to face reselection (i.e. get nominated back onto the ballot), but believes MPs should have to!

  14. “But it’s not true that Corbynistas don’t get out to the doorsteps, certainly not here. Before the council elections they were commoner than Jehovah’s witnesses (who in some ways they resemble).”

    ——–

    They need to get the Corbynistas delivering pizzas, spreading Corbynism, an opportunity is being missed here I feel…

  15. Odd thing that struck me looking at the tables is the similarity between the corny vote Regionally and the Brexit vote.

    Most anti Corbyn, Scotland and London, most pro remain Scotland and London.

    I wonder if Corbyn being look warm on Europe and Smith calling for a possible second referendum might be a factor.

    Peter.

  16. Corbyn’s meeting at Chelmsford was on local news a while ago. The reporter said it was more like a religious revival meeting than anything political. There was a shot of what looked like an elderly woman in a trance.

  17. “can anyone explain what an entryist is? its used a lot but what does it mean? i was a lab party member under wilson callaghan foot kinnock and early blair then decided club politics werent me and have steered clear since most of my lab friends at that time left during blair years-one joined greens one lib dems others opted out some rejoined just post 2010 others have joined recently are they entryists having been members for 20 years?”

    ——-

    an entryist, is someone who likes to enter things.

    E.g. people like your friends, who keep going off to enter different parties.

    I think if you re-enter a party you entered once before, that counts, but not sure…

  18. On the new members (Queen Mary research) – data can be helpful

    58% had no previous political affiliation
    31% are former LP members (but those over 50 years old it is over 40%), that is, returnees.

  19. Peter Cairns

    “Most anti Corbyn, Scotland and London, most pro remain Scotland and London.”

    Indeed, but while we have breakdowns by administrative units for the referendum (with quite a bit of variation in the regions), we don’t have the same for this poll.

    Also, only 14% of the new members are Londoners.

  20. @David Carrod

    “Once two parties enter into a coalition, compromises have to made in order to agree policies for the new administration.

    What else could Clegg have realistically done in that situation?”

    ——-

    Been through this. LDs had bargaining power in that situation. And they used it. Instead of resisting things like austerity and tuition fees, they did an about turn on those and used their bargaining power for the miserable compromise of the AV ref and for HoL reform, i.e. stuff for party advantage.

    Which didn’t work anyway.

  21. Carfrew

    They also got the tax allowance raised which was so popular that the tories took it on as their own policy

  22. @CARFREW

    I would add a question to your response to David Carrod. ‘When was the last time that a Tory Government left office with either a Budget Surplus or a Balance of Payments Surplus?’
    Labour managed to do both in 1970.

  23. @ToH

    “Do you mean we had a government which stopped propping up failing outdated industries?”

    ———

    Lol, you still plugging tha old meme, Howard? Certain industries were more vulnerable to oil price hikes, e.g. auto industry, and needed supporting, like we supported the banks. Or indeed how the Americans saved their car industry.

    When the cost of trashing the industry, losing all the jobs and other business that depends on it, is greater than the cost of saving it, it makes sense to save it.

    But also, it wasn’t simply a case of removing support under Thatch but increasing burdens, e.g. upping interest rates to highest level ever, doubling VAT during stagflation etc…

  24. Carfrew
    “When the cost of trashing the industry, losing all the jobs and other business that depends on it, is greater than the cost of saving it, it makes sense to save it.”

    Propping up ailing industries isn’t the government’s business. If it was, we’d still be writing with quill pens, going to the apothecary, making wooden wheels for horse-drawn carts etc etc.

    In Victorian times there was concern that the telephone would put all the messenger boys out of a job. It eventually did, but presumably they found something else to do (or starved).

  25. @CARFREW
    … they did an about turn on those and used their bargaining power for the miserable compromise of the AV ref …
    ——
    With the wisdom of hindsight, that was a bad move.

    But they probably saw it as a once in a lifetime chance to change the voting system under FPTP (why do we keep using that expression, there is no ‘post’).

    What they didn’t foresee was that the LDs/Clegg would take the blame for all the negative aspects of the coalition, while the Tories would take the credit for the good stuff.

  26. VIRGILIO

    How nice to hear from you again-and with such an interesting piece of advice for the Labour Party.

    How times have changed here-I remember the days when your European Polling & Election numbers were poured over with much joy & interest.

    As you can see from the resounding silence which your post elicited, UKPR has it’s collective ( and I use that word advisedly) eyes glued to its Corbynite navel these days.

    I have news for you though-your “comrades of Labour” will ” fall into the trap of converting their respected historic party into an “English variety of Syriza! “.

    But the Greek experience of which you warn-” moral, political and financial disaster! ” ( Wow-that bad huh? !) will not happen here.

    The UK electorate shows no signs whatever of making Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister. And if Opinion Polls ever did suggest such a thing , then I feel sure that the case studies you identify :- Greece, Cuba, Venezuela -will be amply explained to our voters.

  27. carfew surely that makes them returners-by the way only 2 joined other parties! so the rest are definitely returners not entryists
    unless they mean the same thing!
    and then if an mp like shaun woodward changes from tory to lab this is a defection nor entryism!
    its very confusing!
    i want a proper definition so we can single out these entryists from returners and defectors!!

  28. Just in case Graham’s post was inadvertently missed by the denizens of UKPR CLP:-

    An Opinion Poll !!!!!!!

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/

    Interesting?????????………………..No ?

  29. CR – “Irish govt doesn’t want the 13 billion pounds that the EU says it owes Ireland. I see their point, its only £3000 per person and its not like the Irish need the money. Irish govt is going to appeal the EU decision because its a vote winning strategy”

    I detect some sarcasm there! But if you look at it objectively the Irish govt’s position makes perfect sense.

    They made their deal with Apple 30 years ago, when both the Irish Republic and Apple were on their knees, and Ireland has benefitted handsomely from it. They’ve had a lot of jobs created in places like Cork which were previously doing badly. The Apple influence then created secondary jobs in that city as well as lured a bunch of others like Google, Facebook etc.

    According to the treaties the EU has no right to interfere in a country’s tax affairs – so this is a power grab by them.

    In addition, they are trying to make this thing retrospective. There is a reason that all govts announce tax changes “from midnight tonight”. If you allow retrospective changes, then either a company needs to get a crystal ball to predict which nation or supra-national org will suddenly get abusive and change the rules retrospectively 30 years in the future, or they simply avoid countries that do retrospective stuff like the plague.

    There’d be an exodus. There is no point getting £3000 today if you have no job tomorrow.

    As for Ireland’s tax arrangements, they are a right-wing country, both their main parties are shades of right and centre-right and their tax policy reflects that. But that’s the business of the Irish voters, it’s not for the EU to interfere with.

  30. Tully

    “i want a proper definition so we can single out these entryists from returners and defectors!!”

    I’m sure there is a passage about in the rule book, or the NEC can interpret it as such.

    I would rather like to know if there are LP members, because it seems that there are only Blarites, Moderates and Corbynista …

  31. carfew
    also how many of theresa mays 50k are entryists and how many are defectors or returners?
    are they being vetted to find out so they can be purged?
    important stuff definitions!

  32. CARFREW

    As you know you and I do not agree on this issue so I feel there is little point in discussing it with you.

    I just got irritated with yet another Lefty coming out with the same old rubbish (IMO). I should not rise to the bait.

    However it’s nice to see PeteB shares my view as we do not always agree.

    Cricket going well though.

  33. Colin

    “Interesting?????????………………..No ?”

    Important, but not interesting :-)

  34. I think I might have to call bullshit on this poll, saw a post by a respondent on facebook who hasn’t received their ballot paper and feels they are likely to be purged. Some of the stories circulating on social media make me suspect that outside groups are involved in collecting “evidence” of infractions.

    I don’t think this poll tells us anything about the likely result but will be a good guide to how much rigging was needed for a Smith win. Based on some of the poll answers the don’t knows are likely to break more corbyns way. Which I think means that about 100k votes need to be erased. Obviously this isn’t possible with just the resources of the compliance unit, but as I say I have a feeling that the compliance unit is being fed names by outside groups

  35. I think I might have to call b*lls**t on this poll, saw a post by a respondent on facebook who hasn’t received their ballot paper and feels they are likely to be purged. Some of the stories circulating on social media make me suspect that outside groups are involved in collecting “evidence” of infractions.
    I don’t think this poll tells us anything about the likely result but will be a good guide to how much rigging was needed for a Smith win. Based on some of the poll answers the don’t knows are likely to break more corbyns way. Which I think means that about 100k votes need to be erased. Obviously this isn’t possible with just the resources of the compliance unit, but as I say I have a feeling that the compliance unit is being fed names by outside groups

  36. Colin
    On the poll you linked to – I noticed that despite comparable chaos to Labour, UKIP’s VI is holding up well. Also that their voters are the most committed. It seems that they’re not drifting away yet.

    Also, I’ve never noticed a survey before that asked whether voters were registered, which seems a good thing. I don’t look at the actual poll detail very often so perhaps they all ask that now.

  37. Anyway, there is essentially no movement in the ICM poll (they even say it).

    If I wanted to spin it for Labour: the Conservatives couldn’t (further) capitalise on the mayhem of the LP, and the various errors by the two labour candidates, their supporters, MPs, officials didn’t damage the party in the last month.

    I don’t really want to spin it for anyone. But the LP should actually think of an action plan, working on the prerequisites of an unlikely (but possible) win in 2020.

  38. CambridgeRachel

    If the scale of taking away voting right from members was at close to anything that is in social media, it wouldn’t be in social media, but would be from the Corbyn campaign team and we would also hear about it from Unite They do have people on these two committees – it is just not true. In addition, there are clear instructions what to do if you don’t get your ballot.

    Just because you mentioned social media – a lot of old articles are circulated as fresh in the context of the campaign (like Chukka, David Milliband, etc).

    Both sides are getting less and less tolerant.

  39. DC @ 11.32 am

    From your link, Public Net Debt went down by £42 bn from 1998 to 2002 under Gordon Brown.

    How many Tory chancellors lowered debt in 4 successive years? Or have a better record on debt change per year in office than Gordon?

  40. “Corbyn supporters support the person rather than policies”

    A test of this would be to examine specific policies for which there is evidence of support not shared by his opponents or opposing parties. Among these are immigration without barriers to meet labour market demand; unilateral nuclear disarmament, including getting rid of Trident; a major council house building programme; and nationalisational of the railways.
    Out of the 27% current Labour party VI, I should think a substantial majority supports those policies.

    A related question is why anyone would propagate a view that support for Corby is “for the person” in a democratic society where these policies, and the courage preparedness to talk to or even befriend extremists, are highly regarded. Could it be a political device to portray such attributes as those related to a personality cult, rather than as representing widely held and democratic views, needed in a world of rapid demographic change and extreme and dangerous differences of wealth and opportunity?

  41. PETEB

    Yes the UKIP numbers are interesting. If I understand them-they have lost 25% of their 2015 GE vote ( mainly to Con and Lab) ; picking up 13% of Con/Lab/LD 2015 VI-leaving 12% of their current VI as coming from post 2015 voters.

    Bizarre!

    Waiting to see what happens to the Lab VI after Corbyn’s win is formally announced.

  42. I wonder why as a Labour Party member my vote hasn`t arrived yet.

    Perhaps some JC supporters have been weeding out from the ballot the members who pledged support to OS.

  43. THE OTHER HOWARD
    CARFREW

    “As you know you and I do not agree on this issue so I feel there is little point in discussing it with you”
    _______

    Maybe it’s genetic.. ;-)

  44. Laszlo,

    I don’t think that trying to win outright in 2020 is a reasonable strategy for Labour. It’s possible, but they’d be better off building bridges with the SNP/PC/Lib Dems, and trying to get an “Anyone But Tory” rainbow government in 2020. I do get a sense that Corbyn et al would be quite happy to let SLAB wither away, in return for SNP support in a hung parliament.

  45. BILL PATRICK
    “I do get a sense that Corbyn et al would be quite happy to let SLAB wither away, in return for SNP support in a hung parliament.”

    Would be, in what circumstances? They already have SNP support in opposing Conservative policies – indeed in pursuing already in Scotland the policies which a UK Corbyn-led Government would pursue – and would continued to do so in a hung parliament.

  46. @Pete B

    “Propping up ailing industries isn’t the government’s business. If it was, we’d still be writing with quill pens, going to the apothecary, making wooden wheels for horse-drawn carts etc etc.”

    ————

    Amazed you would waste our time with this sort of objection. Obviously one is not suggesting propping up all business, including tech. that has been superceded. But we were talking about summat like cars, which on this planet, have not been superceded as of yet, despite mine and Statty’s enthusiasm for maglev.

    Also, some industries are more strategic and vital than others, other stuff depends on them. This is one way modern economies remain dominant, they protect and invest in strategic areas. Hence our govt.
    saved our banking and Americans saved their car industry.

    If you still doubt this, you can explain how we could have avoided the calamities and knock-on effects of a banking collapse sans govt. intervention if you like…

  47. @ToH

    Well having discussed the matter before, I didn’t know you had unilaterally decided it was suddenly off limits. It’s quite hard to keep up, are allotments still ok?

    Also, dunno why you keep mentioning your refusal to agree, because I have said before, I am not seeking your agreement. You already agree with Pete B, isn’t that enough? Maybe if you can explain to me why I should be bothered whether you agree it might mean your objection has some merit?…

  48. MRNAMELESS Other research from Queen Elizabeth college shows that overall 31% of new members have rejoined, and 40% of the new members over 50 are rejoiners. That puts a different light on the fact that Corbyn has a bigger majority among new memebrs.

  49. @Tully

    I think it’s possible for returners to also be entryists. Or maybe re-entryists. Some people like entering that much.

    Meanwhile, defection is just another excuse for entering.

    I agree it’s a difficult job sorting out these definitions but it’s an important job and someone has to do it. Otherwise we wouldn’t know who was or wasn’t entering…

  50. CARFREW

    “careful you don’t be giving them ideas Allan, or they will take over the pizza delivery business and you’ll be greated by JWs every time you order a deep filled crust!!”
    __________

    What a thought lol

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