Tomorrow’s Times has a new YouGov poll of the Labour leadership electorate (party members from before the cut-off date, trade union affiliates and £25 registered supporters) showing Jeremy Corbyn with a robust lead over Owen Smith. Topline voting intentions excluding don’t knows are Corbyn 62%, Smith 38%. 8% of voters say don’t know.

Jeremy Corbyn leads convincingly in all three parts of the electorate: among party members he is ahead by 57% to 43%, among trade union affiliates he is ahead 62% to 38%, among registered supporters he is ahead by a daunting 74% to 26%. If the numbers are broken down by length of membership Owen Smith actually leads among those who were members before the last general election, but they are swamped by the influx of newer members who overwhelmingly back Jeremy Corbyn.

The poll was conducted over the weekend, so after Labour members will have started to vote. The actual contest still has three weeks to go, but with people already voting and that sort of lead to make up Owen Smith’s chances do not look good.

Looking to the future, 39% of the selectorate (and 35% of full party members) think it is likely the party will split after the election. 45% of party members who support Owen Smith say that if some MPs opposed to Corbyn were to leave and form a new party they would follow them (29% of Smith supporters say they are likely to leave the party if Corbyn wins anyway… though I’m always a little wary of questions like that, it’s easier to threaten to leave than to actually do it)

YouGov also asked about mandatory re-selection. Party members are divided right down the middle – 46% of full members think MPs should normally have the right to stand again without a full selection, 45% of members think that MPs should face a full reselection before every election. The split is very much along the Smith-Corbyn divide – 69% of Corbyn supporters are in favour of reselections, 77% of Smith supporters are opposed.

Full tabs are here.


1,056 Responses to “YouGov/Times poll of Labour leadership race”

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  1. And she might not even go down at all. Things aren’t a shambles in Scotland, overall.

  2. Bill P

    I guess it would be interesting to know if she is perceived positively or not. Lately the Conservative leaders have not tended to be greatly liked north of the border.

  3. ProfHoward

    Yes, this is what I meant by Fordist. You are actually generous, because some of the seminars are really just continuations of the lecture, just counted differently in the work allocation models and in the student handbooks. It is essentially true for all Russel universities in England.

    The Msc is a different world. They are difficult to control in many cases, a lot depends on the tutors involved (unlike undergrad) how the programme shapes, the function of the programme within the university (overwhelmingly students choose university, then the faculty/school and only then the programme). So, it is quite possible that a programme has its own culture which doesn’t happen in undergrad or some of the specialist Msc programmes, which allows a much larger amount of work to be put in by faculty (and I’m talking of an Msc with 100+ students).

    I really can’t go into details.

  4. ProfHoward

    “Do you mean Keynsian models are wrong generally, or that the model variant of Keynesianism he uses is wrong?
    I think there is a lot of worth in a Keynesian approach, in many settings.”

    There is value in the way of thinking – without doubt.

    The model is wrong (check the differentiation between investment, inventory, and expenditure). It has been known basically since it was written. The trouble is that all updates are on the model on the wrong premises (the Treasurey use to have a discussion group on it).

    It comes back – misinterpreted the surge after 1994, the nature of the recession of 2001 (which didn’t blow up in the uk, but it was here), the surge up to 2008, the way in which the recession happened, the recovery, etc.

    There is a throw away comment by Minsky (who should be credited for understanding 2008, even if he died much earlier) about the model he used and the conclusions he drew. He stuck with his conclusions, which were correct, but never took apart from the model (which then theoretically meant that he went after his gut feelings).

  5. OldNat

    “I’m quite looking forward to a Green FM.”

    Are you a big fan of Green politics?

    What do you make of the bad numeracy reports on Scotland’s children? These surfacted in the media. A fuss over nothing? Or a real worry?

  6. “It is essentially true for all Russel universities in England.”

    Perhaps not quite all but seminar sizes are too large in most of them. I think class sizes over about 6 or 8 is just getting too big to be described as real quality interaction.

  7. LUDLOWNEWBOY

    :-)

  8. In Scotland in the 1980s the small group teaching could often be 3s or 4s. But I am told by a VC from a top Scottish university that those days are gone. Sad.

  9. Bill Patrick

    You youngsters!

    As someone who came to political awareness in the 1950s (and was somewhat ignorant about people as much as politics – as I think we all were at that age)I have lived through the Tories, then Labour now the SNP being dominant in Scottish politics.

    The one constant (as it was during the years of Liberal domination) was which party most Scots felt was best placed to represent Scottish interests in the UK.

    In those far off days, we didn’t have the sophisticated polling that we now see.

    But if we had had polling then asking which party would best preserve the British Empire, I’d guess the Tories would have come top – the problem being that fewer and fewer people cared much about the Empire.

  10. ProfHoward

    Outside of Oxbridge, the seminar sizes in Russell universities are around 50 (but with teaching techniques between 16 to 30), and on Msc programmes probably about 35.

  11. Laszlo

    On simple things such as the Balanced Budget Multiplier I think the Keynesian model has much to offer as a way to deal with current (secular stagnation) travails.

    Krugman talked about Minsky a lot (“the Minsky moment”) in a lecture of his I went to lately — but I can’t remember if it was approving.

  12. Old nat

    Thanks for the other info on the Scottish educational situation and policy context. I tend to agree that these things are often amenable to manipulation by partisan elements and that the true picture is often at odds from what is said. I also agree that it is all about priorities. And I would add that the results of education policy are very slow to appear.

  13. ProfHoward

    The last seminar groups of 10 students in an MBA programme (I know …) in one of the UK’s leading universities was abolished in 2006, and the group sizes of 30 in 2009 … There are no seminars on the programme.

    This is extremely common at masters level everywhere in the UK.

  14. Lazlo

    50? How can one have a seminar with 50! Do they produce written work for each seminar?

  15. Must go to bed. Another day of academic work tomorrow.

    It’s great when the students are away.

  16. Prof Howard

    On the whole, I tend to prefer looking at the actual research reports, rather than press accounts.

    Don’t you do that in your field?

    http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/05/2836/4

    Where research indicates a problem, sensible governments initiate action (which may or may not!) prove successful.

    Don’t they do that where you live – or are there no problems?

    Maybe we should create school classes with a maximum of 8 pupils to allow “real quality interaction.” :-)

  17. Prof Howard

    On universities. – I should have added depending on disciplines. A university closed down a successful Msc of 30 odd students, but started one on law programme with 7 students, possibly increasing to 15..:

    And as to the seminars – you just have to work around the numbers with your teaching methods. When you charge 20,000 for home and foreign students and the work allocation model is against you, and you like the subject, and feel a kind of responsibilities for your students then you figure it out.

    As to Minsky

    Krugman would have fully endorsed him. There is a problem with the Minsky moment, but it would be unfair to recite them, considering his huge contribution to understanding the problems with government interventions in the money- and investment markets – and the criticism would not yield, now, an actionable government decision. But it is worthwhile reading his work. Most are freely available.

  18. Northern Ireland Boundary Commission produces first proposed set of new Westminster constituencies.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37281097

    Where Ireland leads, can Scotland, Wales & England be far behind? (Probably yes).

  19. Laszlo

    Are you familiar with the work of Steve Keen, an Aussie economist

  20. Laszlo

    Do you know the work of Steve Keen, an Australian economist

  21. OldNat

    I was just looking at them and wondered if other places in the UK had got their new seats yet. It seems not.

    The boundaries look reasonable enough. They seem not too weird-shaped.

    Politically, I see that highly-regarded commentator Nicholas Whyte thinks Sinn Féin has most to gain and all the other parties appear to lose.

    NI loses one seat , down from 18 to 17.

    Of course these are not final – consultation awaits.

    [Next Tuesday for England – AW]

  22. I love that one of the new NI constituencies is called Dalriada. Its the constituency Game of Thrones is filmed in by the way.

    And Glenshane is not bad as another constituency name.

  23. Prof Howard

    I don’t know if the other Commissions will follow NI’s example, but I note that all the NI public consultations are scheduled to be held in licensed premises.

    Could generate more than normally interesting discussion. :-)

  24. CambridgeRachel

    I read Keen’s book and some of his articles.

    He doesn’t understand Marx at all, but it is a minor issue – who cares really.

    He uses the same model that he criticises, and he doesn’t even recognise it, but oddly he drew the right conclusions from it. And this is important, and gives the value to his works.

    However, this is a major issue – he treats the aggregates without knowing what he aggregates (so, differences in behaviours). It is not his fault, but economics in general.

    Good old Joan Robinson put out the right task in her article (I hope it’s freely available): “What are the questions”.

  25. Prof Howard

    It would be fun if the Scottish Boundary Commission also decided to rename the constituency including Argyll as “Dalriada”!

  26. @HIRETON

    Yes the Council of Ministers has to agree to any legislation proposed by the Commission and approves approximately 80% of it by qualified voting majority. The EU Parliament then rubber stamps and has no amending powers

    The Commission is still the only institution that can propose EU law. It is the executive that is unelected.

    Not only have we lost a huge amount of sovereignty as set out in the book “The British Constitution”, there’s also a massive democratic deficit that neither the peoples of the UK nor the peoples of Germany or any country can fire the commission who are the law makers.

    The German Constitutional Court says German Law is supreme. However in practice the German Parliament passes everything that has been agreed without question. Just as the British Parliament has done.

  27. An Economist is on an airplane answering the flight attendant’s question.

    “Well, an aisle seat has considerable room to the side, but an exit row seat has additional room. This implies an exit aisle seat has the optimum amount of room, and a study of the legroom model will show this to be correct. I conclude that I should sit in the exit row aisle seat.”
    “But sir, I asked if you would like to have beef or chicken.”
    “Let me consult the legroom model again.”

  28. @Lazlo

    I fully agree about automation and the technology changing stuff…

    Your friend said lawyers won’t go away – BUT they will be reduced – one of the largest pieces of work undertaken by Lawyers is apparently “discovery” where they go through a ton of documents and look for certain things. this is already being automated. A large chunk of lawyers will no longer be needed.

    Apparently a large number of weather reports and other texts are already being written by computer. It has ALREADY got to the point where humans cannot always tell the difference between text written by man or machine.

    The number of jobs related to self-driving vehicles is immense.

    Japanese are already (heavily) experimenting with robots to take care of their elderly.

    People like to say: but you need people to repair the machines…forget that they are mostly built by machines, they will soon only be repaired by them too.

    The point being it is HIGHLY unlikely that any new jobs created will equal the number of jobs lost. Horse populations NEVER recovered from the invention of the car…

    We are going to have to find ways to keep people busy who in reality have no real job.

    A lot of restaurants in Tokyo have a vending machine where you pay your money and get a ticket to give to staff to get your meal. They automated the person that mans the till. But they often still employ someone to stand next to the machine and help people with it. Basically a completely pointless job. But it keeps someone employed…and employed ppl tend to be happier citizens…

  29. @oldnat

    “…The problem being that fewer and fewer people cared much about the Empire.”

    ———-

    Indeed, these days it’s mostly only the Scots that keep banging on about it.

  30. Alec

    “This is perfectly sensible economics, and not remotely threatening. I was a little surprised that you have adopted this tone on more than one occasion.”

    If it had been done it behind the scenes, government to government, privately, I would agree with you but it was made very public in order to bring pressure on the UK hence my comments. I think they have made a very bad tactical mistake as I posted. It’s note the way to negotiate.

  31. JAYBLANC

    Your just misreading the clear implications of what he said so I cannot help you further, we clearly disagree on the interpretation.

  32. “We are going to have to find ways to keep people busy who in reality have no real job”

    ———

    Don’t we do that already? E.g. Lawyering, as you said, and pollsters, party compliance units etc. etc.

  33. Watch the exchange between Ummuna & the other bloke – from about 25.50

    Note the “hard ball” warning issued to Ummuna at the end of the conversation.

    This is what is happening to the Labour Party.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07v85z7/daily-politics-05092016

  34. @Pete B
    Ludlownewboy

    It reminds me of a programme called ‘Man Alive’ from the very early days of BBC2. As the title suggests it was a live programme.

    On one occasion they attempted to measure the performance of individuals after consuming alcohol, by presenting them with simple tests, like catching a coin dropped in front of them.

    The idea was to compare their performance when drunk with tests made earlier when sober.

    So several obviously drunk individuals duly took these tests live on national TV. To the presenters’ great surprise and obvious discomfort, they all did better after quite a lot of alcohol – I seem to remember it was at least five pints.

    It was brilliant viewing – not only was it marvellous live car crash TV: the best bit was the obvious pleasure that the drunks derived from doing better when drunk and wrecking the programme.

    I suspect it was familiarity with the test rather than greater proficiency from drinking that explained the improved performance.

  35. Bruce
    “Horse populations NEVER recovered from the invention of the car…”

    Maybe not, but jobs of grooms, coachmen etc were replaced by chauffeurs, mechanics and so on.

  36. Re: student numbers, what is the position at Oxford, does anyone know, in the 1980’s it was at most two in a tutorial.

  37. Good morning all from a very warm central London.

    “Japanese are already (heavily) experimenting with robots to take care of their elderly”
    ______

    Good for them and by the time I hit the state pension retirement age in 2058 I will have hoped the robot technology had reached the UK by then. I’m fed up having to wipe my own arse and certainly don’t won’t to be doing it when I retire and would quite happily let a robot do it. for me.

  38. @Allan C

    “Good for them and by the time I hit the state pension retirement age in 2058”

    ————-

    Lol, you’re optimistic Allan, way things are going it’ll prolly be raised to 2098 by then. If it hasn’t become an endlessly moving target you never quite catch up with…

  39. Regarding the immigration/population debate, who decides on the numbers that are needed to meet the requirements in all sectors of the economy ?

    If it is the ‘government’ how can it ever be an up to date assessment, given that there is constant change with people leaving jobs, changing roles within companies, changing careers, leaving the country, dying, sick/injured etc etc.

    With an ageing population, there is going to be need for more people working in healthcare and care sector. If you look at current ethnicity of workers there is a large percentage of non UK citizens performing these roles and if there is not a continuing migration of workers, it will end up with inadequate staffing, increased costs of care as companies compete for available experienced staff.

    I am not sure personally that government would ever reduce net migration to tens of thousands and that it will always be 300,000+. This simply reflects the needs of a growing population/economy. There is evidence that EU mainland citizens who have moved to the UK during the last say 10 years are having more children than UK citizens. UK population will reach 80 millon within the next 20 years. You have to be able to service all of the needs of a growing population.

  40. Actually just looking at the state retirement age and based on the current guidelines I would be working until I’m 68. That’s not good. I plan to retire way before then with or without the robots. I’m forecasting I will retire when I’m 58 so that’s 32 years of hard work ahead of me. That’s plenty in my book.

  41. CARFREW

    “Lol, you’re optimistic Allan, way things are going it’ll prolly be raised to 2098 by then. If it hasn’t become an endlessly moving target you never quite catch up wit”
    ________

    In terms of the state pension you’re not wrong. Quite an interesting article I’m reading.
    ………….
    “An initial target of 70 is pencilled for the 2060s, but if life expectancy and improving mortality rates continue at their current levels (a 5.3 year rise in longevity since 1981), the state pension age could hit 77 by the mid 2070s. This means an A-Level student in 2013 might face a 60-year working career before he or she can retire”
    __

    That’s not good.

  42. Colin

    “This is what is happening to the Labour Party.”

    Or those that are left in after the great purge of 2016.

  43. R HUCKLE

    There is no easy answer to decreasing the amount of immigration into the UK. I personally think the current rate year on year is far too high because our public services (not in all areas I admit) are struggling to cope. If you have more people moving into the country than leaving and a positive birth to death ratio then of course you need more people to work in public services.

    Look at it this way. If over a 3 year period 1 million more people moved into the UK than those who left then that figure alone would mean we would need more nurses and doc’s to look after them which in turn means having to bring in more peeps from out with the UK to look after the increased migrant population.

    The other factor is housing…The increase in population (natural and immigration) is causing huge problems on the affordability indicators for buying and renting.

    I don’t have a model where I can say what is the correct amount of immigration for the UK and what sort of immigration we need. That’s something the UK government and it’s civil servants will have to sort out but for millions of people in the UK rising immigration for them is a real concern and it’s up to our elected representatives to alleviate those concerns.

  44. “Horse populations NEVER recovered from the invention of the car…”

    Indeed, but I did read that some economist was working on a theoretical model that would enable a redesign so there would be sufficient legroom for a horse.

  45. Alec

    “Assuming the horse to be a perfect sphere….” oh wait that’s mathematicians.

    ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I honestly hope to not retire because I’m working on stuff which is so much fun that I won’t want to leave it. Hopefully more interesting stuff than arse wiping robots.

  46. ALAN

    That’s a very positive attitude to have and good on you however much as I do love my job I’m not so sure it’s as exciting as your own.

    Anyway what’s wrong with arse wiping robots? ;-)

  47. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I’d feel sorry for the robots… “Here I am, brain the size of the planet and they have me wiping arses….”

  48. ALAN

    LOL…..:-) :-)

  49. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    So you’re only a young lad of 26? You’ve only just started your working life. I had ambitions to retire at 50 when I first started working in 1988, but now I’m resigned to carry on until 65. I certainly won’t wait until 67 or any later if they push out state retirement age again.

  50. @Allan C

    “In terms of the state pension you’re not wrong. Quite an interesting article I’m reading…”

    ——–

    You see, if you look at things in terms of the most powerful voting blocs, it’s vital you keep working to keep Boomers in the luxury to which they’re accustomed well into their dotage. Also, it’s important that money is diverted from your future pension needs, in order to service current Boomer pension needs etc.

    Thus you will have to pay more and work longer to get less. Especially when that Yougov polling showed majority of Boomers don’t plan on passing on too much dosh.

    P.s. Don’t tell Boomers I told you all this, they’re under the impression they’ve been hard done by and hence get a bit nearly about it

    P.p.s. When the current population boom reach adulthood, they may too be a powerful voting bloc, and you may find things stacked against you a bit more in your dotage from that direction. Don’t tell anyone I told you this etc…

    P.p.p.s. You may have to make provision for your robots too, who may be a powerful voting bloc by 2058 etc.

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