Tomorrow’s Times has a new YouGov poll of the Labour leadership electorate (party members from before the cut-off date, trade union affiliates and £25 registered supporters) showing Jeremy Corbyn with a robust lead over Owen Smith. Topline voting intentions excluding don’t knows are Corbyn 62%, Smith 38%. 8% of voters say don’t know.

Jeremy Corbyn leads convincingly in all three parts of the electorate: among party members he is ahead by 57% to 43%, among trade union affiliates he is ahead 62% to 38%, among registered supporters he is ahead by a daunting 74% to 26%. If the numbers are broken down by length of membership Owen Smith actually leads among those who were members before the last general election, but they are swamped by the influx of newer members who overwhelmingly back Jeremy Corbyn.

The poll was conducted over the weekend, so after Labour members will have started to vote. The actual contest still has three weeks to go, but with people already voting and that sort of lead to make up Owen Smith’s chances do not look good.

Looking to the future, 39% of the selectorate (and 35% of full party members) think it is likely the party will split after the election. 45% of party members who support Owen Smith say that if some MPs opposed to Corbyn were to leave and form a new party they would follow them (29% of Smith supporters say they are likely to leave the party if Corbyn wins anyway… though I’m always a little wary of questions like that, it’s easier to threaten to leave than to actually do it)

YouGov also asked about mandatory re-selection. Party members are divided right down the middle – 46% of full members think MPs should normally have the right to stand again without a full selection, 45% of members think that MPs should face a full reselection before every election. The split is very much along the Smith-Corbyn divide – 69% of Corbyn supporters are in favour of reselections, 77% of Smith supporters are opposed.

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1,056 Responses to “YouGov/Times poll of Labour leadership race”

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  1. SEA CHANGE

    Many thanks for the reference to the Ashcroft. Good to see that 2/3 of the British people are now behind Brexit. I totally agree with your comments about Japan. I think the Japanese have blundered by threatening us.

  2. The Other Howard

    “For the umpteenth time I am not a Conservative, have never been a member of any party. It is well known on here that I am socially very conservative and economically a supporter of free trade and small government.”

    That’s cleared that up then. Big differences with the Conservatives…..

  3. NORBOLD

    Have you a problem with me putting somebody right?

  4. Too muxh left wing moral high ground appearing on this site – I am moving a way for a while to find a more balanced polling site.

  5. I wonder why Vaz, a member of the Establishment, has been exposed now? I wonder who he has offended in his political life?

  6. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “I agree, I thought he was hesitant and clearly had some difficulty dealing with a strong woman. A failed President who will be gone very soon thank goodness. Mind the options for a new President seem even worse, glad I’m British at the moment.
    I see you back to the same juvenile rants in your second paragraph. Are you sure your not 16 as I asked the other day?”

    As I am 49 I don’t think my ‘rants’ are juvenile, but your monumental arrogance is that of an old man who believes he is always right.

  7. May seems to be swimming against the tide of Free Trade.

    Protectionism is rearing its head again:-

    http://www.dw.com/en/opinion-so-long-ttip-but-what-now/a-19515027

  8. @Colin

    Thanks for the link.

    I am constantly reminded that Cameron received very little support from the EU hierarchy in the run-up to the Referendum.

    Had they given him just a bit more leeway, then the result would undoubtedly have been different.

    Whether you support Brexit or not, Merkel et al’s refusal to compromise will go down as one of the biggest political misjudgements.

    Psychology plays a part here: will the Brexit negotiations be influenced by their guilt at having caused the ‘Out’ vote, compounded by a reluctance publicly to admit responsibility?

  9. @SEA CHANGE

    “Your rearguard action against the expressed wishes of the electorate is a waste of energy in my humble opinion. When the remain camp can only muster a few thousand die-hard supporters for a march in London their supposed stronghold and the big news of the day is Eddie Izzard’s pink beret chase, you just know it is over.
    You can always start the long road to have another referendum in around 2057 on abnegating our sovereignty again. Good luck with making that case.”

    Given that there had been no negative impact to Brexit yet it’s natural for people to feel upbeat about the future. But we are in very early days – the negotiations have not started yet and noone really knows what they will bring. Ashcroft has been a long standing leave supporter so he will jump at any chance to show how well his side are doing, and the Telegraph will help him in that, no doubt. Public opinion is constant, not fixed, so in a year’s time things may well be different.

  10. MILLIE

    Merkel is beginning to face what France is in the middle of trying to cope with-a backlash against immigration the scale of which voters didn’t vote for & the perceived effects of which , they fear.

    Europe is just a part of huge global changes in economic & other relationships. Much of it driven by the fall out from mass migration from Africa & the ME.

  11. Mille

    Ahh, but was it a miss judgement? Look how quick Germany and France were to pronounce the trade talks dead once the major cheerleader was out of the picture

  12. Even though I reluctantly voted to Remain, I don’t understand why Cameron & MSM expected Remain to win. They have been telling us for years that everything wrong in this country is the fault of the EU.

  13. TANCRED

    I’m glad we have cleared that up. I must say when you rant you sound like a schoolboy, whilst at other times you seem quite rational and put your points across well.

    As to your opinion of me you may think what you like, certainly I have strong opinions and yes, I events often prove me correct, but not always. When I have been wrong on here I have usually posted saying so. If you think that’s arrogant them fair enough.

  14. For those who want Britain to continue to succeed economically it is good to see that the Services PMI has jumped from 47.4% in July to 52.9% in August.

  15. A bit odd how BBC et al. are reporting this as a “post-Brexit” period. We haven’t even activated A50, nor is there even a plan or date set for this to happen, and even when (if?) it is activated it will be years on top of that before EU membership actually ends.

    We are not even close to a post-Brexit period, seems way too early to start saying what the effect of Brexit will be.

    Millie,
    “Whether you support Brexit or not, Merkel et al’s refusal to compromise will go down as one of the biggest political misjudgements.”

    The EU already did compromise: Britain received a £5 billion rebate every year, as well as opt-outs from Schengen and the Euro. We were in club class while the newer countries were in economy.

    If there had been further concessions in the name of keeping the UK on side, it’s hard to see what would stop the pressure for another referendum whenever a British (or other EU member) government felt threatened by a Eurosceptic vote surge. It would also have created ill-will among other members to see some countries treated more equally than others whenever they threaten to leave. That’s hardly a recipe for stability or unity.

    It’s now come to the sorry situation where it would be in the EU’s political interests to see Britain suffer for leaving the Union, because it would make existing members more determined to remain.

  16. @Millie – “I am constantly reminded that Cameron received very little support from the EU hierarchy in the run-up to the Referendum.

    Had they given him just a bit more leeway, then the result would undoubtedly have been different.

    Whether you support Brexit or not, Merkel et al’s refusal to compromise will go down as one of the biggest political misjudgements.”

    Yes and no. Let’s not forget that Cameron gave Merkel no reason to compromise. At the outset, before he had even written out his demands, he told the world that he wanted to stay in the EU. Why would you bother to compromise with someone who has already told you that leaving would damage the UK?

    Having said that, I do think it was an error not to recognise the possibility that Cameron might be on the end of a leave defeat, and that migration is a pan European issue that can’t be ignored.

  17. @TOH beat me to it, but yes, the services PMI data rebounded in August, ending just slightly above where is was in July after a record fall.

    This completes the set, and I would argue tends to confirm my view that the PMI data swings much more than the real economic numbers, suggesting a heavy influence of sentiment. The way the numbers are handled statistically tends to give ‘change’ responses greater weighting that ‘no change’ readings, which may be another reason.

    A month ago I said we need to be cautious about reading too much into the very sharp falls, and now I would suggest similar caution about the very sharp rebounds. This could equally just be over exuberant sentiment at work.

    One significant finding across all three UK PMI’s in both July and August is worth noting, and certainly fits with the wider economic data – all three are showing very sharp increases in input prices. These are at the same rate as 2011 – 2013, when we saw stagnating real incomes and a consequent struggle in the GDP figures. We can’t discount this as a minor discomfort, as it may yet derail a recovery that was already showing a long term declining trend from early 2014.

    I think we are in a period when there are far too many snap judgements being made on one months figures in isolation. The reality is that since the Brexit vote, the pound has lost value, which has allowed some improvement in exports at the expense of rising inflationary pressures. Everything else is broadly as it was or slightly down, with the exception of the housing market, which looks troubled, and investment, which looks worse.

    Overall, my view is that the balance has been negative, with that negativity focussed in those sectors with longer time lag effects. Depending on what happens next, these negatives could develop into really very serious drags on the economy, but there is still time for these to recover.

  18. Better news from the G20 for May, with the support for a quick trade deal from the Australian PM. In gross economic terms, we will need a lot of this if there is to be any disruption to European trade.

    However, I remain unclear as to whhether many of the segments of the electorate who voted leave actually appreciated what they were voting for. ‘More free trade’ was posited as the answer to the sclerotic EU, but I’m not sure that the communities most adversely affected by the EU will really benefit from reduced tarriffs with non EU countries, especially those that have much cheaper production costs than the UK.

    In many ways the leave vote was a vote against increasing gloabalization, so is the answer simply more globalization? I’m not so sure.

    The Australian response is something that Brexiters will welcome, however, and it will be helpful politically at least. It is true that the EU has been extremely slow at negotiating trade deals with major economies, but while some critics suggest this is an example of EU incompetence, in reality it is more to do with the fact that such deals can have harmful impacts on sections of the European workforce and so national governments place barriers in the way of such deals.

  19. Since Brexit can mean whatever people want it to mean, it should not be a surprise that it is a popular option.

  20. @ Alec

    Quite so. PMI is an indicator of sentiment, not a fact. Financial markets crave knowledge of the future, so there is an endless search for “leading indicators” which foresee what the future will bring. We won’t know what blip the Leave vote created until we get 3rd quarter data in November. We won’t know the size of the reversion to the norm until we get 4th quarter data in February.

    There’s way too much certainty going on here in relation to the implications of leaving the EU. I guess I can understand the psychological motives in people wanting to shore up their defences in advance of the reality. We have no idea yet. We won’t have any idea until the terms of leaving are known, and we won’t be able to make any sort of realistic judgement until 2 years after that, ie 2021. All that’s happened so far is the entirely expected drop in sterling, and in business confidence, followed by the entirely expected bounce back as financial markets always over-react.

    If things go better than the consensus of economists expect, there will be grumbling, but nothing more. If things go bad, with a difficult external climate, then things could turn nasty, as the likes of TOH accuse opponents of unpatriotic sabotage, and turn on their own government as not having carried out the leave process “properly”. Could be an unpleasant election campaign in 2020. BUT NO-ONE CAN SAY NOW.

  21. Brexit means Brexit .
    Rinse and repeat ad nauseum until 2020.
    That should keep the polls on track.

    Note avoid defining what Brexit actually means.

  22. John Chanin and Alec

    Agreed.

    Meanwhile:

    http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/reuters/UKDomesticNews/~3/Lwi_-foBXX8/uk-britain-eu-housing-idUKKCN11A0KI

    Looks very much like another intervention by central government in a market they just don’t understand.

  23. Well it sounds like a points based system for the EU is “not an option”, which leaves us with what?

    Negotiating over quota levels I presume?

    Or the Japanese model of “Brexit means Brexit as long as nothing changes”?

  24. Alec

    A good couple of post, if I may say so, and very little I can disagree with. I am more optimistic than you, that’s all.

    John Channon

    I would not want to judge Brexit until 2025 myself as I posted earlier on this thread.

    I don’t understand why you think people like me would turn nasty, others might as you say, but I try to be very balanced about these things whilst having a clear preference for Brexit.

    I have posted several times that I expect a down turn over the next couple of year as part of the price of leaving the EU but in the middle and longer term I expect us to do well. If the end result was that the UK was somewhat less wealthy and had less standing in the World but had left the EU fully then I would accept that I was wrong to be as optimistic as I am but would still be happy to be outside the EU. I would not blame anyone unless blame was justified.

  25. @TOH

    Fair comment. I should have chosen a more strident poster for my example.

  26. TOH

    “It is well known on here that I am socially very conservative and economically a supporter of free trade and small government.”

    Dear God, I can’t imagine who you could vote for, I’m guessing that the Green party is not for you

  27. COLIN

    May seems to be swimming against the tide of Free Trade.
    Protectionism is rearing its head again:-

    I have been aware for some time that the EU/US negotiations are dead in the water, hence some of the posts I’ve made over the last few days. It’s why I had to have a little smile at Obama yesterday.

    John Channon

    Fair comment. I should have chosen a more strident poster for my example.

    Thanks John, there are plenty to choose from on both sides of the Brexit debate. :-)

  28. @ALAN

    “Well it sounds like a points based system for the EU is “not an option”, which leaves us with what?”

    It leaves us with keeping something similar to the current system BUT with controls on numbers. I would assume this means putting in a yearly cap on workers from the EU.

    I actually agree with May – a points based system makes no sense for EU immigration.

  29. I think that May is going to have one hell of a job in trying to make trade deals with other countries. Probably Australia and New Zealand will cobble something together for us, but more out of sympathy and sentimental ties than anything else. Most other countries are likely to show us the middle finger. The pro-leave consensus will not look so good then.

  30. CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    Just to help you a bit more, I am a great lover of wildlife having spent a small fortune seeing a significant percentage of the Worlds birds and mammals in their own habitats, and I am a County Recorder for on group of Britains Flora and fauna.

    I am also a strong supporter of field sports, hunting, shooting and fishing, and no I don’t vote Green.

  31. Cambrigerachel.

    Yes it is hard to imagine that TOH has not put his x in the blue corner in every General Election since he was 18.

    Shame we do not have PR , so every vote counted and people could vote for the party which really represented their views.

    Blair with his 179 majority on 43% of the vote should have taken the high ground from that position and said we need change .
    As was discussed with Roy Jenkins before 1997.

  32. Australia has an incredibly narrow export base, and a massive CAD imbalance. They’re an importing nation, and there’s very little we buy from them. The things they import from the UK are much easier to import from the US for geographical reasons, and this is evident in the domination of their imports. There would actually need to be massive trade *incentives* to prompt greatly increased trade to Australia, and of course that’s against WTO rules.

  33. TOH

    Yes-extraordinary Services PMI numbers in the circumstances.

  34. Does anyone know where there might be a swingometer that can deal with electoral pacts?

  35. JAYBLANC

    I look forward with interest to seeing you post anything positive about the UK and it’s future. Do you live in the UK?

  36. Good afternoon all from a warm grey central London.

    DEZ

    “Blair with his 179 majority on 43% of the vote should have taken the high ground from that position and said we need change”
    ____

    This MP knows all about positions. Some very interesting ones.

    http://order-order.com/2016/09/05/richs-monday-morning-view-178/

  37. THE OTHER HOWARD
    JAYBLANC

    “I look forward with interest to seeing you post anything positive about the UK and it’s future. Do you live in the UK?”
    ___________

    Yes it’s amazing how some peeps appear to want the UK to fail just to prove a point. When good news like on the economy, exports, employment and even the pound getting stronger hits the news you can almost hear the blood boil from the nae sayers.

    I don’t agree with everything this Tory government has introduced but that shouldn’t be prerequisite to wanting UK PLC to fail.

  38. @TOH

    Frankly there’s a lot to be not positive about. Did you follow
    yesterday’s story on M & S?

  39. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “Yes it’s amazing how some peeps appear to want the UK to fail just to prove a point. When good news like on the economy, exports, employment and even the pound getting stronger hits the news you can almost hear the blood boil from the nae sayers.
    I don’t agree with everything this Tory government has introduced but that shouldn’t be prerequisite to wanting UK PLC to fail.”

    And people such as you should bear in mind that for now we are still IN the EU. Nothing has changed.

  40. @JAYBLANC

    Australia is mainly a service based economy, like the UK. They don’t make much of anything and don’t export a great deal other than perhaps certain foodstuffs.

  41. Maybe I’ve missed it, but I’ve not seen any discussion of using benefits eligibility as a “mechanism” (i.e. sop to the Brexiters) for controlling EU immigration. The UK might exclude all (new) EU migrants from receipt of some, many or all benefits, thereby providing no impediment to skilled workers, but avoiding promoting low wages in e.g. services and agriculture.

    Freedom of movement would be retained, and short-term migration for e.g. seasonal agricultural jobs would be preserved). It’s unclear whether this would have the impact on migration that some Brexiters seem to imagine, but it might provide a route forward – at the very least a basis for discussion with the EU, that might preserve at least some aspects of access to the single market.

  42. Interesting to read Farage crying foul in todays papers over the fact there will be no points based immigration system.
    I thought “promises” made by the Leave campaign were merely serving suggestions and not meant as a manifesto.

  43. WOLF

    I am aware of the staff cuts and the problems getting a pay deal with staff. Tough news for those being made redundant but not of huge significance I would suggest.

    From where I sit, frankly there is a lot to be positives.. It depends on individual circumstances.

  44. WOLF

    should read ………….a lot to be positive about.

  45. ROBIN

    “sop to the Brexiters”

    Can only speak for myself but I don’t want anything that can be described as a “sop for”.

  46. @Tancred

    Australia has a very different economy from the UK, US, EU… a much larger proportion of its economy is based on exploitation of natural resources (mining and agriculture). In particular, they export vast amounts of coal to East Asia.

    Australia exports in 2012 were $0.3trillion, compared to $0.4trillion for the UK in 2015 (source: Wikipedia).

  47. Robin

    Yes that sounds like a way forward, certainly once we leave the EU we won’t have to treat migrants the same as our own citizens but I would argue against applying the same principle to healthcare.

  48. Robin

    Having dealt with the words “sop for” I am sure that May will consider ideas like yours which obviously have some merit although she may decide that they do not control immigration to the degree which allows her to meet her long term target of “tens of thousands rather than hundreds of thousand”.

  49. The following analysis was suggested to me by two people who were or are high in the City of London and therefore have that particular axe to grind.

    1) The effects of Brexit will be slow to come through
    2) The major risk comes from the potential effect on direct foreign investment. We have consistently sold/exported less than we have imported. The balance has been made up by the willingness of foreigners for various reasons to invest in us
    3) Brexit is likely to lead to a drop in direct foreign investment. This will have an effect on the strength of the pound and the inflationary result will lead to a higher interest rates
    4) As there is a massive amount of household debt the effect of this rate rise will be devastating to the individuals exposed to them
    5) Attempts to counter this negative spiral through increased exports will be severely hampered by our dependence on services. However wicked it may be, the city of London is a major money spinner and the likely effects of Brexit on that is going to be very negative as the French and Germans arrange matters to suit Frankfurt and Brussels.

    I listened to all of this with suitable respect but would be interested in opinions on which parts of this analysis are sound and which parts are dodgy.

  50. CHARLES

    One issue that comes to mind immediately is that they have not mentioned the problems that face the EU. The referendum in Italy which could cause the government to fall which in itself could lead to an Italien government which withdraws from the Euro, which could cause the EU to implode.

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