Tomorrow’s Times has a new YouGov poll of the Labour leadership electorate (party members from before the cut-off date, trade union affiliates and £25 registered supporters) showing Jeremy Corbyn with a robust lead over Owen Smith. Topline voting intentions excluding don’t knows are Corbyn 62%, Smith 38%. 8% of voters say don’t know.

Jeremy Corbyn leads convincingly in all three parts of the electorate: among party members he is ahead by 57% to 43%, among trade union affiliates he is ahead 62% to 38%, among registered supporters he is ahead by a daunting 74% to 26%. If the numbers are broken down by length of membership Owen Smith actually leads among those who were members before the last general election, but they are swamped by the influx of newer members who overwhelmingly back Jeremy Corbyn.

The poll was conducted over the weekend, so after Labour members will have started to vote. The actual contest still has three weeks to go, but with people already voting and that sort of lead to make up Owen Smith’s chances do not look good.

Looking to the future, 39% of the selectorate (and 35% of full party members) think it is likely the party will split after the election. 45% of party members who support Owen Smith say that if some MPs opposed to Corbyn were to leave and form a new party they would follow them (29% of Smith supporters say they are likely to leave the party if Corbyn wins anyway… though I’m always a little wary of questions like that, it’s easier to threaten to leave than to actually do it)

YouGov also asked about mandatory re-selection. Party members are divided right down the middle – 46% of full members think MPs should normally have the right to stand again without a full selection, 45% of members think that MPs should face a full reselection before every election. The split is very much along the Smith-Corbyn divide – 69% of Corbyn supporters are in favour of reselections, 77% of Smith supporters are opposed.

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1,056 Responses to “YouGov/Times poll of Labour leadership race”

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  1. @Alec

    “Indeed, but I did read that some economist was working on a theoretical model that would enable a redesign so there would be sufficient legroom for a horse.”


    Hopefully they can figure it out and invent the horsebox!!

  2. Not really on topic here, but, I would like to point out one area where the polling companies are not AT ALL partisan (I’m a member of several).

    I have repeatedly pointed this out in the comments on the last page.


    Let’s break it down….


    Such as the young black guy who, when I lost my bus day ticket on, thankfully, the last journey of the day, when I was getting very stressed, patted me on the shoulder, told me not to worry and paid my fare. I couldn’t thank him enough – and told him that if I was ever able to do him a similar favour, I would.

    Such as my GP – of Middle Eastern origin (I think she’s Iranian), who, when I went to her suggesting that the long term condition I was suffering from was ‘Cluster headaches’, admitted she didn’t know much about the condition, but, made an emergency appointment the next morning, and in the meantime, researched big, thick, neurology books – in her own time, without getting paid to do so – and by the next morning (a mere 16 hours later) was completely up to speed.

    Such as the Turkish guy from my local take away, who always gives a bit extra, who, when I was skint, and bought a sausage with the last of my cash, said ‘I’ve put some chips in there for you’.

    Such the American, French, Canadian, Pakistani, Thai, Italian, Brazilian, Spanish, German and Serbian people that I am PROUD to call friends.

    Such as my (some, sadly no longer here) relatives, who were immigrants here in Wales, after leaving fascist Italy in the 1930’s.

    One question that often comes up is ‘which party is best on “Tackling immigration”…I mean, what the [censored – by me]?

    How skewed is that????

    How loaded is the language in that question???

    As a participant for several polling companies, I, for one, would love to see some much more partisan, and much less inflammatory language on this, in the polls I participate in.

  3. .
    HOW BAD IS JEREMY CORBYN DOING Poliing Report 15 August Anthony Wells

    “There have been frequent claims that Labour were equal to (or even ahead of) the Tories before Labour’s leadership troubles erupted. This is a disingenuous claim at best, and seems to rest wholly upon cherry-picking individual polls. There was a single Survation poll straight after the referendum result that had the Conservatives and Labour equal, but an ICM poll conducted at the same time had a Tory lead of four points and the average position at the time was a Tory lead of about three points. At no point this year have the polls ever shown a consistent Labour lead (and the last poll to show Labour ahead was in April).

    This perhaps from:

    As a humble ignoramus I have asked before how POllingReport derived an ICM four point lead from what I take to be ICM’s raw data. I think the answer may have been buried somewhere in the avalanche of casual opinions. It would be noble act of pedagogy to explain this to me. my emailadress is
    [email protected]. The triple n is deliberate

    entitle the emial ICM Poll.

  4. George,

    The answer is in likelihood to vote. (See table 2)

    Even though the raw numbers were close to parity, the higher numbers of con voters in 8-10 for likelihood to vote produce the published lead.

  5. London, Thames Valley and Cotswolds, and areas around them were quite pro-remain.

    When people complain about the leavers, and some say its the English, its really not uniformly English, and there are many micro political climates with a North of England that was more strongly leave than the South.

  6. Why is Scotland so laggardly and sluggish on the constituency redraws?

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