A wrote a few weeks ago that in the past the boost enjoyed by a Prime Minister taking over mid-term has often only lasted a month or so. The latest YouGov poll suggests that Theresa May’s honeymoon is following the same pattern and has now started to fade. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. It’s still showing a healthy Tory lead, but not the towering double-digit leads we’ve seen in the last few polls. This is, of course, just a single poll and we should wait to see if other polls shown the same trend, but it’s the first sign of the May honeymoon beginning to wane (tabs here)

UPDATE: TNS also have new voting intention figures out and they have the Tories still enjoying a double-digit lead. Topline figures are CON 39%, LAB 26%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 7% (tabs are here). Fieldwork was over the weekend, so a little older than the Mon-Tues YouGov data, but not by much. A couple of interesting methodological notes here – looking at TNS’s tables, it looks like they are including the names of the party leaders in their voting intention question (just the GB leaders in the English question, but also the Scottish and Welsh leaders in their respective areas). Based on the tables, they are also asking preferred party on the economy and preferred leader before asking voting intention.


664 Responses to “Latest YouGov and TNS voting intentions”

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  1. @carfrew – I too was somewhat tickled by @Oldnat’s general grumpiness at the great success of Team GB at the Olympics.

    I may have missed it, but I was struggling to recall similar grumpiness from him at grat Scottish performances at the Commonwealth Games.

    I also note with some amusement that Andy Murray owes some of his success to the National Lottery and taxpayer funded Scottish Tennie Centre of Excellence at Stirling, and that the Scottish RFU gets lots of money from the government for both grassroots and other organisational projects.

    Incidentally, I heard a very measured article on R4 on the Olympics success. Much of this (nearly all, in fact) is down to lottery funding. From 1996 Sport England funding really kicked in, but it was only after Labour came to power that grants and support for individual sportspeople was permitted. This is really what has propelled UK sport to such dizzying heights. It was all down to Tony Blair!

    Since then, it’s become more than just the money, with the article indicating that the Sport England system of managing the funding, spotting the talent and bringing them on is simply one of the best in the world, so the impact of the additional money is greatly amplified by excellent management and coaching.

    Whether this is taxpayers money is a moot point. While lottery money is clearly not tax money, and is raised by what is in effect public voluntary contribution, as it is managed under statutory authority, it is technically classified as states aid finance under EU rules. However, I would argue that this is not ‘taxpayers money’ so we need shed no tears about spending it on winning medals. If you don’t like this, be a grump and don’t play the lottery.

    It is a UK success story without a doubt, which probably explains why @Oldnat gets so upset about it.

  2. Alec

    I was doing some research last night on medals per capita and per GDP. Going back though the tables it seems that in those terms GB is getting back to its historical norm having suffered a two decade dip from 1988 to 2008. Would need to put the figures into a graph to see properly and add world and European games to see properly. I can’t help but wonder what caused it

  3. ALEC
    @carfrew – I too was somewhat tickled by @Oldnat’s general grumpiness at the great success of Team GB at the Olympics

    “It is a UK success story without a doubt, which probably explains why @Oldnat gets so upset about it”
    ____

    I think you’re being a little unfair on ol-Nat. I took it his “grumpiness” was more to do with his favorite sports being excluded from the Olympics, mainly the two legged race and tossing the caber. Excluding midget chucking from the Olympics certainly got my grumpiness levels up.

    But being serious, I’m not that bothered about flag waving and stuff but more excited by the individuals performance and my main gripe over the Olympics is that the range of sports are far too broad and when we do see moments of brilliance from the likes of Bradley Wiggins and Andy Murray sometimes it’s easily forgotten about because we won a medal in some obscure sport 99.999% of us have never even participated in.

    Here today forgotten about tomorrow athletes….I really don’t get over excited by some of the lesser sporting events….Sorry but that’s just me.

  4. Alec

    Thanks for your reply, I can see your reasoning and agree to some extent as the short term price we pay for Brexit. However he main reason for my post to you was your reference to a Norway type deal I could not understand how you thought that was going to be possible given May’s strong commitment to reducing immigration.

  5. @CA – it’s funny how a good number of indicators of the effectiveness and well being of the nation took something of a nose dive at the same time…….

    On other matters:

    The Corbyn/Watson spat about extremist infiltration is interesting.

    I suspect Corbyn has taken a wrong turn in some ways, by appearing to rubbish claims that were never made. His riposte was along the lines of ‘it’s nonsense to claim 130,000 new members are Trots’, which is true, but not what Watson said.

    Instead, Watson has come out with some pretty straightforward evidence that some groups are actively targeting parts of the Labour movement, but it is also interesting to read other sources to hear that some within Momentum are voicing the same concerns. I don’t really understand why Corbyn stays silent on this, or tries to deny it is happening, when I would have thought a better approach would be to accept there is some small truth to what Watson is saying, but make it clear that it seems to be very much a minority activity.

    Either way, this isn’t a great debate for Labour to have, and certainly not a great one to have in public, as the impression it can create may end up being significantly damaging, evenm if the truth were relatively mild.

  6. ALEC

    Not sure about finding a word for it, but there is a reasoning [for the backdating of the cut-off]. The view was taken that there were campaigns that were serving the interests of groups outside Labour to flood the party membership system in order to sway the result.

    But their ‘reasoning’ is self-evident nonsense, even by standards of what comes out of the PLP at the moment. If the 130,000 members being excluded are really ‘flooding’ in on the orders of some external group or other, then on their own they would constitute the second biggest Party in the UK[1]. And one that is a good deal more disciplined than any of the others. Entryism seems a bit pointless in the circumstances.

    In fact the ‘evidence’ that Watson is claiming proves infiltration is concerned with a tiny Trot group called Alliance for Workers’ Liberty (once Socialist Organiser among other things):

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/14/documents-prove-far-left-planned-to-infiltrate-labour-says-tom-watson

    but given that this group only claims 120 members and has a long history of advocating dual membership[2], this revelation is neither significant nor new.

    Of course the real story is that the Labour establishment are the ones trying to sway the result, irrespective of the damage to the Party’s reputation or its procedures. ‘Winning’ is all that matters, even though it is clear that they are unlikely to and their actions will seriously damage the possibility of reconciliation.

    I used to think that Laszlo’s opinion that a purge of Labour’s PLP and organisation was necessary was ridiculously excessive. After all there wasn’t really that much in terms of policy to distinguish them from Corbyn supporters. But their behaviour over the last few months has convinced me that it would probably be the only way the Labour Party could survive. It’s not just that the ‘rebels’ and the top aparatchiks have behaved as if all that mattered was their careers and their ability to get their own way. It’s that they have been so transparently inept about it.

    And that’s with the fawning, if temporary, support of the media – how they could cope when normal service is resumed, you shudder to think. Ruthless inefficiency is not a good look and not an encouragement to get people to vote for you.

    Obviously this doesn’t apply to the great majority of those Labour members who oppose Corbyn for all sorts of respectable reasons. And it doesn’t apply to many of those MPs who backed the failed coup because they thought it was the only way the Party would hold together. But something has to be done about the Delusional Tendency who have run the Party for so long.

    [1] I’m assuming the rumours about Conservative numbers being only about 125,000 are true – one of the disadvantages of their dodged leadership campaign is that we’ve got no updated on their figures. Which may be one of the reasons that it was dodged – it might also have highlighted tensions on that Party between membership and establishment, not just on policy but also in attitudes to each other.

    [2] Yes of course I had to look them up on Wiki:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_for_Workers%27_Liberty

    amusing one of their past infiltrators of Labour is Gloria De Piero, whose expulsion Watson will presumably be demanding.

  7. Alec

    Having been recently called a n*zi stormtrooper, a moonie, a gullible idiot, a brick throwing thud and many other things I don’t really mind being called a trot, for a start I don’t know what it means

    But I am keeping tabs on who is leaping to my defence and Tom Watson hasn’t acquitted himself well in that regard

  8. @Allan C.

    “Have you tried fruit harvesting at you nearest fruit farm? Not only would it be beneficial for your well being and blood pressure you would also be doing the country a great service by being a productive pensioner and helping to drive down immigration.”

    ———-

    Thanks for your moan about my supposed moaning. Actually, I woz just trying to enjoy the Olympics and the achievements before OTHERS including your good self came in with assorted moans about it. My sterling work being positive in the face of this and reassuring on the matter of participation, for eggers, should not fairly be dismissed as moaning. Nor should my pointing out the subsequent invocation of Hitler.

    Because I am not complaining about it. I am just noting it, and how peeps can spoil things for themselves. I even saw the positive side regarding it giving the Corbyn thing a break. Remaining positive, suggest, given your concern on the matter, you might take measures to cure your moaning, I’m told fruit farms are effective.

    Kthx.

  9. @Rach

    “Having been recently called a n*zi stormtrooper, a moonie, a gullible idiot, a brick throwing thud and many other things I don’t really mind being called a trot, for a start I don’t know what it means”

    ———

    Well it could have been worse, you could have been called a quasi!!…

  10. Alec

    Do you really expect the leadership “campaign” (I use the word to avoid automod) as it evolved and at the current stage to be free from all fallacies (including straw man)?

    It’s getting worse every day, and there are still five weeks of it. …

    As you responded to my point about the 130,000 – it is polite to respond. I have no doubt that there are all kinds of bureaucratic reasons. However it is 28% of the party membership, so it is a massive political question, where those minor bureaucratic issues are neither here nor there. Deal with them (not you but the LP).

  11. New thread if anyone is interested

  12. Well having seen the thread title, obviously peeps are gonna be interested…

  13. Carfrew

    Really, i thought we were fed up of talking about corbyn. He’s no where near as interesting as thorium or storage

  14. @Rach

    Well if Corbs would just see the light and get some decent policies concerning storage and Thorium, then it could be a cake and eat it situation…

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