A wrote a few weeks ago that in the past the boost enjoyed by a Prime Minister taking over mid-term has often only lasted a month or so. The latest YouGov poll suggests that Theresa May’s honeymoon is following the same pattern and has now started to fade. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. It’s still showing a healthy Tory lead, but not the towering double-digit leads we’ve seen in the last few polls. This is, of course, just a single poll and we should wait to see if other polls shown the same trend, but it’s the first sign of the May honeymoon beginning to wane (tabs here)

UPDATE: TNS also have new voting intention figures out and they have the Tories still enjoying a double-digit lead. Topline figures are CON 39%, LAB 26%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 7% (tabs are here). Fieldwork was over the weekend, so a little older than the Mon-Tues YouGov data, but not by much. A couple of interesting methodological notes here – looking at TNS’s tables, it looks like they are including the names of the party leaders in their voting intention question (just the GB leaders in the English question, but also the Scottish and Welsh leaders in their respective areas). Based on the tables, they are also asking preferred party on the economy and preferred leader before asking voting intention.


664 Responses to “Latest YouGov and TNS voting intentions”

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  1. Someone in one of the papers quoted the Labour Party infighting as being like the Hunger Games.

    Now leaving aside the prospect of one of the tabloids photoshopping Corby’s body onto Jennifer Laurence’s body, wrong on about every level….

    What about this.

    If current Politics was “Game of Thrones” who would everybody be….

    I am going for Boris as Hodor!!!!

    Peter.

  2. I’ll go for Gove as Littlefinger.

  3. @Peter Cairns

    “Now leaving aside the prospect of one of the tabloids photoshopping Corby’s body onto Jennifer Laurence’s body, wrong on about every level….”

    ———-

    To be fair, photoshopping like that could also be considered a bit wrong.

    Btw, subsequent to our chat concerning who gets media exposure, in support of your view, yesterday in the Times it had a piece about Jason Kenny, who despite having four Olympic Golds, and prolly six by the time this games are over, doesn’t even have Sponsorship.

    On complaining that he wasn’t as pretty as Tom Daly etc., Laura Trott was moved to tweet to Jason “I think you’re pretty!!”

  4. Michael Foster as Ramsay Bolton.

  5. @ Oldnat

    Yes I’d forgotten that rumour. According to the wikileaks HC really took to DM when he was Foreign Secretary.

  6. @Carfrew

    Thank you for the information on Jason Kenny.

    So many people don’t realise the years of dedication, getting up at 0430 everyday to train for two hours followed by two hours at night, the time spent from home, the personal risk in some events…..

    I admire these athletes – the cyclists, the swimmers, the gymnasts – who do far more training than say footballers, but get a fraction of the reward. Success only comes through massive personal sacrifice.

    This why I love the Olympics. Most of the people who win medals are not overpaid or pampered, but people who have worked and sacrificed for years and years for a brief moment, receiving a medal.

  7. @ Catman

    Indeed, and some, despite the years of sacrifice, thorough some cruel twist of fate, injury or whatever, may be denied a medal.

    It’s also a useful counter to the more narcissistic, to enjoy and admire the achievements of others.

  8. As I write, in the last few minutes, we have won another gold in the me s gymnastics, the first time we’ve ever won gymnastics gold. And we won gold I the golf in a game that went down to the last hole. We have just gone above China in the medal table.

    Let that sink in for a minute. This little rock in the North Atlantic has just gone above China in the medals table and lies second, with Murray up next in the Tennis.

    Let’s hear it for taxpayer funding etc.

  9. Good evening all from a lovely evening here in Itchen Valley.

    CARFREW

    Hmmmmmm I find it hard to get excited over the Olympics..I mean ping pong, Rhubarb chucking and elastic females bending themselves into all shape and sizes ain’t real sport.

    Now if you take the Mighty Reds stunning victory over the Gunners today then you have to admit that the Olympics are a tad shi#e in comparison in the ol exciting barometer ;-)

    Mind you I do like the Tennis .

    Anyway with team Russian having most of their cheats booted out then it gives us a better chance of some more medals.

  10. @AC

    “Hmmmmmm I find it hard to get excited over the Olympics..I mean ping pong, Rhubarb chucking and elastic females bending themselves into all shape and sizes ain’t real sport.”

    ———-

    Well these things don’t appear to be our forte. Now rowing, try doing rowing competitively and see if you think it’s demanding enough!!

    Or if that’s too much, track cycling. Or swimming. Or the heptathlon, even.

  11. @AC

    In terms of excitement, many footie games are diminished by the knowledge they get another go next week…

  12. CARFREW

    I don’t doubt for one minute that a lot of the sports in the Olympics are demanding and require a great level of fitness. Being a bit of a cycling enthusiast myself mainly on the ol mountain biking and just cycling on the roads I know that takes a degree of fitness.

    Last month I bought myslef a new Orange Crush S mountain bike and back in April bought a new Trek Emonda racing bike and cycle on average 150 miles a week which is not bad considering I also play a few games of five as side footy as well each week.

    Back to the Olympics…I personally think the range of sports is far too broad and some of the lesser well known sports sort of take the shine of some moments of brilliance in other sports.

  13. #shine off
    ….
    CARFREW
    @AC
    “In terms of excitement, many footie games are diminished by the knowledge they get another go next week”
    ______

    Aye but in the league the mighty Reds only get to play the Gunners a couple of times a year. :-)

  14. Allan Christie

    “some of the lesser well known sports sort of take the shine of some moments of brilliance in other sports”

    I know what you mean.

    Scotland beat the UAE by 96 runs at cricket (or mini-shinty, as BZ reminded me that it should be known), and the Beeb has ignored it!

    Bloody hard running in the sand!

  15. OLDNAT

    That’s exactly what I mean lol ;-)

    Mini-shinty….lmao

  16. @AC

    Yes, but if they lose they get to make up the deficit next week against someone else like Villa.

    Well, maybe not Villa any more, but still.

    And even against the gunners, they get another bite of the cherry. And if things aren’t working out, they get to use substitutes. They can even buy players from other countries!!

  17. Carfrew

    “They can even buy players from other countries!!”

    Not an exact analogy, but Zola Budd?

  18. Just on the ol Shinty.

    “Kingussie Camanachd is a shinty team from Kingussie, Scotland and according to the Guinness Book of Records 2005, is World sport’s most successful sporting team of all time, winning 20 consecutive leagues and going 4 years unbeaten at one stage in the early 1990s”
    ___

    Why don’t we have Shinty in the Olympics? I’m sure we would win a few more Gold medals. Lets face it we have pigeon shooting and horse trotting.

  19. @Allan C

    “Back to the Olympics…I personally think the range of sports is far too broad and some of the lesser well known sports sort of take the shine of some moments of brilliance in other sports”

    ———

    Well you can complain about how the Olympics is organised, but that’s a different thing to Mo Farah getting tripped up, picking himself up and making his way back through the field and winning gold innit.

    Some peeps are hard to please…

  20. @oldnat

    It’s not quite the same is it. You don’t have a transfer a transfer market in Zola Budds now do ya…

    God, I got not one but two quibbling Scotties pecking away…

    Guys, we have BOTH sprinters cycling in the final, currently vying as we speak for Gold. This is a bit more significant…

  21. Athletics (and almost all other sports) clubs have weekly competitions during their season.

    Almost no one attends as spectators. However, when folk can sit on their backside in front of the TV, they become sport fanatics!

  22. @oldnat

    Re: quibble no. 74

    Yes, impossible to understand, that people might find people at the pinnacle of the sport more compelling than say, you pootling around on your bike.

  23. CARFREW

    Aye but all them Olympian peeps can compete at various events in their own sports between each Olympics but aye you have a point on the ol deficit catch up thingy.
    ……..

    “Some peeps are hard to please”
    _____

    Too right, until they bring in female mud wrestling and midget chucking then I ain’t going to be a satisfied peep.

  24. @Allan C

    Yes, they get to compete at less competitive events. Like if the Reds played a local match against some lesser team…

    Does mud wrestling have to be competitive with medals and stuff? I think you might be making things needlessly difficult for yourself turning your nose up at non-competitive mud-wrestling…

  25. “God, I got not one but two quibbling Scotties pecking away”
    ________

    Crikey that’s a sport in itself lol ;-)

  26. What is this Olympics you all talk about? Is it some time travel back to 393 CE? – but golf wasn’t on offer I’m sure. Feeling confused.

    Some useful sport are needed like hanging apples with which the government can save elevenses. Mind hanging food games may give the kids the wrong idea.

  27. CARFREW

    “Does mud wrestling have to be competitive with medals and stuff? I think you might be making things needlessly difficult for yourself turning your nose up at non-competitive mud-wrestling”
    ______

    That’s a good point. No need to make it competitive with medals and stuff. That would sort of take the authenticity away from it.

    Talking of medal…The Americans are looking good for another gold.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VR2HjsWQwZM

  28. “Crikey that’s a sport in itself lol ;-)”

    ——–

    Yes you’re it kidding are ya!! Seems to be a national sport. Meanwhile, Kenny has just won his FIFTH gold medal, and del Potro has broken back in the tennis against Murray. Do you and Oldnat support Murray or is there summat wrong with that too?

  29. They probably only support him if he’s playing under the Cross of St Andrew rather than the Union Flag.

  30. Carfrew

    You can’t stop yourself making silly ad hominem comments, can you?

    When I say “Not an exact analogy”, it’s not precisely world class debating to respond “It’s not quite the same is it.”

    Agreeing with someone doesn’t enhance the public appreciation of your skill.

    I know that the infamous 2010 UK GE debates resonated to “I agree with Nick” comments, but that was generally agreed to be the nadir, not the pinnacle, of that particular sport.

  31. @Pete B

    Ah, so that’s why it’s Scotties quibbling, they prefer the more local stuff? Less unionist in their eyes? Even Liverpool’s easier for Scotties to support these days coz mostly foreign…

  32. CARFREW & PETE B

    Come on Murray.

    Well I’m not that big on the Union flag thing but more inclined to wave the ol St Georges and St Andrews flags. I’m probably the only one in Itchen Abbas to have both flags pinned to the outside of my garage.

    On the Olympics, I really couldn’t tell you what home nations 99% of our competitors are from apart from Andy Murray Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome.. Hang on, was born in Kent or Kenya? ;-)

  33. @Pete B
    We’ll find out shortly whether he is a triumphant Brit or a Scottish loser

  34. @oldnat

    Do stop making up stuff to have a go at!! When I say “not quite the same that” was understatement – obviously you’re a long way off base!! Anyway. We know not everyone will enjoy summat like the Olympics, narcissists particularly have issues with that sort of thing…

  35. CARFREW
    @Pete B
    Ah, so that’s why it’s Scotties quibbling, they prefer the more local stuff? Less unionist in their eyes? Even Liverpool’s easier for Scotties to support these days coz mostly foreign
    _______

    Since when was Wokingham in Scotland? You’re probably more Scottish than I am so less waffle please.

  36. @Allan C

    “On the Olympics, I really couldn’t tell you what home nations 99% of our competitors are from apart from Andy Murray Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome.. Hang on, was born in Kent or Kenya? ;-)”

    Ah, well there’s prolly less national variety than in Liverpool’s squad.

    Meanwhile, China won another gold and pushed us back down to third, but Kennys gold put us back in second again.

  37. @Allan

    “Since when was Wokingham in Scotland? You’re probably more Scottish than I am so less waffle please.”

    ——-

    But you’re pro Indy, aren’tcha? That was my point. Or has moonlighting in Wokingham changed all that?

  38. Pete B

    There’s a delightful irony in that post!

    The entire structure of the modern Olympics is built around national [1] teams competing against each other for status – although in most sports, these are individual athletes who normally strive for their personal best as well as beating other individuals.

    For sports which are organised around teams representing geographical areas or social communities, the circumstances are, naturally, different..

    Oxford and Cambridge Universities, for example, offer significant rewards to the best people at rowing boats to join their organisation.

    So called “national” team sports frequently hire top coaches from other jurisdictions, to gain advantage.

    It’s not clear why people are so enthused by a geographic label for “their team” that they happily adopt so many from other places as representing “them”.

    Not that I’m any better! I was delighted to see Niall McGinn scoring the winner for Aberdeen against Ayr – despite his just being an employee of a club based in the city I used to live near!

    Human beings aren’t necessarily rational in their loyalties, and neither are those who make comments such as yours. :-)

    [1] They aren’t, of course, necessarily teams which conform to state boundaries. Team GB and Team Ireland being exceptions to that rule in a number of events.

  39. CARFREW

    Aye we’re punching above ourselves on the ol medals but with so many Russian’s being excluded from the Olympics then I just wonder how much of an impact that will have on other nations medal totals
    ……..

    “But you’re pro Indy, aren’tcha? That was my point. Or has moonlighting in Wokingham changed all that?”
    ______

    Yes i am pro indy and always will be just as much as I will always be pro Brexit. I’m quite at ease at having Tartan hat and a British hat. I just think the Scots are best at running their country as much as the British are at running Britain. I’m not into shortbread or West country coos and all that.

  40. ON

    Yes, I agree. The English cricket team should no longer accept Scots or Irish or any other nationality. G’night.

  41. Pete B

    Sleep well.

    I’m sure that the England & Wales Cricket [mini-shinty]Board will take note of your comments, and immediately dissolve itself.

    Whether it would also ban Australian, New Zeakand, Jamaican etc citizens from playing under the [Greek] St George’s flag is another matter. :-)

  42. @oldnat

    There has been a fascinating documentary on Yesterday – “Hitler’s Olympics” – which shows how the 1936 Olympics were the model for the games we now have (including the torch relay which the Nazis invented). It also shows how willingly the IOC collaborated with the Nazis simply to ensure that the Games went ahead and the way in which the terrible Avery Bundage used the Berlin games to further his rise to run the IOC. Hopefully one day the whole bloated waste of money will end.

  43. @Laszlo

    “Disenfranchising 130,000 members on the basis that if the NEC wishes it can define the first letter of the first name of the selectorate and exclude everyone else without the slightest protestation – it is a sackable offence.”

    Sorry, but this is utter garbage.

    McNicol is an employee of the Labour Party. He had no direct role in the decision by the NEC to apply the cut-off. His involvement in the court cases was as the administrative representative of the Labour Party, *mandated* to defend the NEC’s legitimate decision.

    It is failure to act as he did that would have been the sacking offence. One key aspect of his job is to put into action the decisions of the NEC.

    Of course, the nonsensical scenario you put forward would NOT be allowed under the rules. It would rightly be viewed as capricious and unreasonable, and would have been ruled against by the courts.

  44. Robin

    We won’t agree on this.

    There was no reason for disenfranchising 130,000 members (cf the article I linked earlier on grassroot). Difficult to find a word for it.

    Carrying on then, without protestation, “I did it under orders and rules” tells you everything – also about you, I’m afraid.

  45. Hireton

    Thanks. I’ll try and catch that.

    It was standard practice in 19th and 20th century nationalism for governments to use their control over state institutions like schools and media to boost ideas that “their nation” was better than others [1]

    The modern Olympics perpetuates that philosophy – hence state-organised doping and specific funding of elite athletes, only in those sports where investment is seen to increase medal prospects.

    There is no necessary link between political views and supporting “local heroes”.

    Sturgeon, Davidson, Dugdale, and Rennie all tweet their support for Scots participants, and I have no reason to think that any of them are insincere about wanting a “local” to do well. It’s sod all to with political nationalism.

    Of course, sponsors like Coca-Cola would be totally pissed off if people just wanted to see great athletes in action.

    They need the emotional engagement of the mass of the people with “their team” to boost their sales.

    [1] Arguably, the UK was worse at that game than others, because of the conflation of “Britishness” with “Englishness” in so many areas of public life. The success of the British Empire allowed them to ignore internal tensions.

  46. Laszlo/Robin

    Do either of you (or anyone else) know if Michael Foster is a member of the Labour Party – or just a guy who gives it lots of cash?

    If the former, then his “stormtrooper” comment should be enough to have his membership cancelled.

    If the latter, then I presume that money is more important than principle?

  47. Robin

    Last week about 120 people turned up for a Garston CLP meeting to endorse the candidate. Of those more than 20 were told that they had to wait in a separate room because they were disenfranchised (all were paying members). Among them was a woman who joined the party later than the cut off point as she wanted her joining and her birthday coincide.

    Now excluding her, and approving those who could afford 25 quid is a matter of resignation to my mind. McNicol did not resign, so he was in favour of it. This is all we need to know. And it is a sufficient reason for firing him even if Labour would have to pay severance.

  48. Do these CLP endorsements/nominations of Corbyn/Smith have any constitutional significance? Or are they just part of PR campaigns?

  49. @ OldNat

    An excellent question.

    While your question is correct, and should be answered (I haven’t got a clue), I think, the LP has more existential questions on offer right now, so they would just ignore it for the time being.

    If there was a response to that article, it would give my belief in social democracy back (not really, but some of it at least).

    Update.
    Since there is a petition for expelling him from the Labour Party, so he must be a member.

  50. @ Oldnat

    ‘If the former, then his “stormtrooper” comment should be enough to have his membership cancelled.’

    There are at least two petitions calling for exactly that. However, the compliance office appears to be more concerned about excluding members who have tweeted that an MP is ‘blairite’ (which now seems to be officially a term of abuse and proscribed).

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