A wrote a few weeks ago that in the past the boost enjoyed by a Prime Minister taking over mid-term has often only lasted a month or so. The latest YouGov poll suggests that Theresa May’s honeymoon is following the same pattern and has now started to fade. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. It’s still showing a healthy Tory lead, but not the towering double-digit leads we’ve seen in the last few polls. This is, of course, just a single poll and we should wait to see if other polls shown the same trend, but it’s the first sign of the May honeymoon beginning to wane (tabs here)

UPDATE: TNS also have new voting intention figures out and they have the Tories still enjoying a double-digit lead. Topline figures are CON 39%, LAB 26%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 7% (tabs are here). Fieldwork was over the weekend, so a little older than the Mon-Tues YouGov data, but not by much. A couple of interesting methodological notes here – looking at TNS’s tables, it looks like they are including the names of the party leaders in their voting intention question (just the GB leaders in the English question, but also the Scottish and Welsh leaders in their respective areas). Based on the tables, they are also asking preferred party on the economy and preferred leader before asking voting intention.


664 Responses to “Latest YouGov and TNS voting intentions”

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  1. I heard an LP person of some sort use the argument that I first heard used by the SNP, namely that as 1 in 75 people in the UK were members that changed the content of everyday conversations in the workplace, at the school gates etc. I’ve no idea if the statistic is correct, but I think the distribution matters, not just the geographical distribution (as ON has already pointed out), but also the social and demographic distribution. And after that you’ve still got to worry about whether these members are having the right kinds of conversation (that sounds a bit sinister, but I can’t think of a better way of putting it OTTOMH) – it would be good to see some research on that.

    I think the echo chamber problem is a very real one, and I’d be interested to know which segments are worst affected. I vaguely remember seeing some research on use of social media at the 2010 election: simple analysis suggested Lab dominated that battleground, closer analysis suggested that this masked a lot of re-tweeting and preaching to the converted. Cons were making much less extensive use of social media, but using non-political sites and probably doing a better job of reaching potential switchers.

  2. Carfrew

    You might appreciate this photo of the guys who took gold and silver in the single sculls (photo finish) recovering from their efforts. I don’t think there are many sports where one can get quite as close to one’s physical limits (maybe weight-lifting?).

  3. Sorbus

    The theory works if there is a meaningful (for the recipient) message. If there isn’t, it doesn’t as Eastern Europe showed quite clearly 26 years ago.

    The Conservatives use social media, and they use it effectively. The Labour right is trying to emulate it right now, but not very successfully.

  4. Sorbus

    “And after that you’ve still got to worry about whether these members are having the right kinds of conversation ”

    I know what you mean. Although having a large membership which contains a wide range of ideological stances (beyond the core policy) actually reduces the risk of inappropriate conversations, I would have thought.

    As you say there is “also the social and demographic distribution”.

    The members need to be, and be seen to be, “normal” members of their communities. If they simply push an agreed set of slogans, then they will achieve nothing. Speaking to your colleagues, contacts in the terms that they collectively use is likely to be more persuasive.

    Leave the active politicking to the activists – and trust the members the party has attracted – makes sense.

  5. @Sorbus

    After doing no real sport since school, I took up running aged 32. After six months training, I ran a 10 mile road race in 72 minutes.

    I looked exactly like that!

    That was over a decade ago, and sadly a dodgy knee stopped my running days.

  6. ComRes VI

    Con 32% : Lab 28% : UKIP 10% : Grn 4% : SNP 4% and

    Other/DK/WNV etc 15%

  7. THE OTHER HOWARD

    If it is necessary to break [a treaty] to achieve the sort of Brexit i want then I would certainly support a government doing so.

    Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. Hardly a good place to be for a country needing to persuade others of their good faith, having just hacked off 27 of their closest trading partners but are not yet on the list of candidate countries for the WTO. We’ll probably hear more about the Belfast Agreement court case after the week-end so it shouldn’t take long to find out whether the plaintiff has a case for HMG to answer.

    FPTP seems to be understood by everyone which is why I used it.

    I do realise that most supporters of the plurality system call it that, presumably because it sounds a little more sophisticated. I never thought you might be a Lab supporter.

  8. Just less than half (47%) think that the Government should allow new grammar schools.

    Well I suppose that shows people are a bit more realistic about the chances of their family getting into grammar school than they appeared to be about the chances of being liable for IHT. But that’s still a lot of people either imagining that (a) little so-and-so is going to do much better in a very narrowly focused exam at 11 years than would in fact be the case or (b) the alternatives to grammar school will offer a ‘different but equal’ start in life. Or perhaps (c) grammar schools will become much less selective than has traditionally been the case.

  9. I suppose it is possible that the Independent/Sunday Mirror thought about how appropriate it would be to ask respondents in Scotland and Wales about what the English government should do about grammar schools.

    Sadly, I doubt that the thought never even approached their pretty little heads. :-)

  10. Given that people seem to be willing to move house to get their kids into what they think is a good school will we see a boom in house prices close to the border if there is a return to more selection in English schools?

  11. OldNat

    The question just refers to ‘the government’ so I guess respondents are supposed to interpret that as a reference to the appropriate administration. They have, however, quoted the figures for the English subsample, which suggests they recognise that the question was not relevant to Scottish and Welsh respondents.

    What a waste of money.

  12. Sorbus

    What was even sillier about this poll was asking people to choose between 2 statements that are not opposites

    “It is the job of politicians to make decisions about the future of the country”

    and

    “The public should be asked in referendums to decide on major decisions about Britain’s future”

  13. Trump seems to have blown his chances of becoming UK PM – minus 69 unfavourability.

  14. It is always fascinating that either the customer or the polling company doesn’t know what the devolved matters are (mind, the handbook of obtaining British citizenship doesn’t either).

  15. CATMANJEFF

    “@Carfrew
    I’ll be staying up quite late again I think.
    I like a good dose of elitism, I just can’t get enough!”

    ————–

    That’s the spirit!! Esp. with the cricket not going so well, despite presence of numerous Yorkies. Women’s cycling on in ten minutes or so!!…

  16. @Sorbus

    I feel the way they look in that pic. after reading some of the stuff about Corbyn!! One of the guys in the four the other day said he had to go and disappear for a while after the race because it felt like his lungs had just stopped working. Still, compared to punting…

  17. OLDNAT

    What’s going on in the Labour Party is weird enough but Trump seems to be going out of his way to lose and lose very badly. The Republicans must be very worried that he will also lose them many seats in both houses.

    If I was an American national I would normally vote Republican but how would anybody vote for Trump. Mind, I wouldn’t vote for Clinton either, for different reasons. Very worrying when you cannot feel happy with either candiate to lead the Worlds greatest Superpower (still, but perhaps not for long).

  18. Carfrew

    Those two didn’t have the energy to go anywhere. They’ve basically collapsed on the nearest pontoon with their feet on their blades!

    And you’re a much more fragile individual than I thought if the coverage of Corbyn gives you the vapours – just as well you abstain from active politics!

  19. Sorbus,
    Yes the Echo Chamber is an issue, my local LP Facebook page is dominated by Momentum members and a few of them claimed that our MP was not representative etc. Truth was most members wanting a change of leader don’t bother trying to engage on the page because has gravitated towards an echo Chamber with misquotes, inaccurate facts (I correct with data from UKPR on occasions which is nice) and full of momentum propaganda with lazy re-postings.
    It was a huge shock to these members when the CLP voted to nominate Owen Smith by over 60%, sometimes the silent majority is real.
    Of course they claim it is a fiddle as post Jan 12th joiners were excluded etc when they retrench to the safety of only engaging with those who agree with them and insulting anyone who dares disagree.
    Having said that who wouldn’t want a larger membership and it is meaningful just no where near as significant as JC seems to believe.
    NB) Many (mainly older) LP members who have joined momentum are generally more respectful.

  20. Murray v del Potro final!

  21. Just when you think that things calm down about about the LP …

    The five [sorry, David Carrod, I forgot the correct word, and in a tablet it is a nightmare to search for something as you may lose everything you typed] who challenged the NEC have raised 100 grand and are exploring (I suppose talking to lawyers, this is what it means) the possibilities to go to the Supreme Court.

    You really must envy the Tories (or an efficient CP :-)).

  22. TOH

    Congressional districts are so much of a fix between the two parties that there are very few which are constructed in a way that would allow a change of party to happen!

    I think the most likely outcome of the US GE will continue to be a Democratic President and a Republican Congress.

    There will, therefore, continue to be a paralysis of governance, since both branches will veto the decisions of the other.

    The most important aspect will be the 3rd branch of government – the Supreme Court. How long can the Republicans block the filling of vacancies?

  23. Oh the irony…

    The left of Lab (and going by Roger Mexico’s average donation size figure, some classically ‘ordinary people’) are redistributing hundreds of thousands to wealthy lawyers…

    Surely there’s a better way of doing politics??

  24. Those Elite GB women have done good – a world record and gold :-)

  25. CMJ

    The elite Northern Ireland pipe band – Field Marshall Montgomery – have won the World Pipe Band Championships too!

    And without a penny of lottery/tax support.

  26. Good to see that that cheat who uses a motor bike never wins a cycling race.

  27. @Oldnat

    But are there pipe bands on ground for all the new fans to join?

  28. CMJ

    Lots – but not enough.

    I’m petitioning Scottish Government to transfer funding from elite sports to elite bands like the Shotts & Dykehead to put Scotland at the top of the table again! :-)

  29. Time to test the patriotism of all the GBites on here.

    How many of you stood for the anthem when GB won a Gold Medal?

  30. @Sorbus

    It isn’t vapours, it’s exhaustion.

    And I do abstain from active politics. I don’t even do the passive sort, whatever that is…

  31. @BARBAZENZERO

    “Murray v del Potro final!”

    ———–

    Should be a cracker…

  32. @LASZLO
    The five [sorry, David Carrod, I forgot the correct word, and in a tablet it is a nightmare to search for something as you may lose everything you typed] who challenged the NEC have raised 100 grand and are exploring (I suppose talking to lawyers, this is what it means) the possibilities to go to the Supreme Court.
    ——–
    OK, a quick remedial legal terminology note – the 5, who want to appeal, will be known as the Appellants, and the NEC will be the Respondent.

    Exploring the possibilities in this case means figuring out how they can get permission to appeal, and get the case heard quickly, since the ballot papers are due to go out soon.

    The application for permission has to go directly to the Supreme Court (since leave to appeal was not granted by the Court of Appeal), where it will be decided on the papers, by three of their Lordships, if it has sufficient merit to be heard as a substantive case.

    The problem they will have, is that the SC’s Trinity Term ended on 31 July, and the Michaelmas Term doesn’t start until 2 October. It’s likely that most of their Lordships (salary £200k+ pa) will by now be getting stuck into their Giuseppe Quintarelli Amarone della Valpolicella Classico Riserva at their Tuscan Villas.

  33. “Surely there’s a better way of doing politics??”

    ———

    yes, the jury service thing…

  34. David Carrod

    Now THAT is impressive knowledge! :-)

  35. @OLDNAT

    “Time to test the patriotism of all the GBites on here.
    How many of you stood for the anthem when GB won a Gold Medal?”

    I don’t think anyone under 70 would do that.

  36. @CATMANJEFF

    ‘Those Elite GB women have done good – a world record and gold’

    ——————

    Despite the obvious downer of taxpayer funding, strangely it still seemed rather special. Who knew…

  37. @ToH

    “If I was an American national I would normally vote Republican but how would anybody vote for Trump.”

    ——-

    People who want him to… build a wall!! Here’s John Oliver on the matter….

    https://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=vU8dCYocuyI

  38. David Carrod

    I bookmarked it – thank you.

    I really don’t want to bring in any legal argument, I’m not qualified even to listen to these people :-).

    However, I’m intrigued – why Italy, why not France? Having said that, I met one of these Supreme Court judges in Bologna a couple of years ago). Mind, he was having beer and not wine, but then when ordering wine and finding out that was somewhere around 50 degrees (Celsius) I understood him. It is true.

    Thanks, and thanks for the eloquent presentation too.

  39. If there is anything in this Mirror story that some plotters want the “King over the water”, David Miliband. to return and oust the usurper …..

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-mps-call-david-miliband-8626175

    ….. then it would only be appropriate if his standard was raised on the Braes o’ [Andrew] Mar[r].

    I’ll get my coat.

  40. End of honeymoon poll?

    Well, in both the YouGov and the Comres poll puts May quite high on the popularity, and it is not declining. Yet, YouGov shows halving of the Conservative lead (still respectable) and Comres shows a similarly modest, yet sizeable, lead.

    So, it doesn’t seem to me to be something related to the honeymoon (going to Switzerland? Anyway …).

    The movement in YouGov is very much on the edge of the MoE (if I want to be kind), so something is happening. I also think that Labour is behind the Tories, but there must be a limit to that, and I think that the split poll is flawed, and if anyone is interested, I’m happy to say why.

    So, if the Tory bounce was about leadership change, why did they fall (somewhat) and May didn’t? There could be explanations, but I doubt that it could go beyond speculations.

    So, if the Labour vote cannot really go below a certain level, what obstructs the Conservative VI to go above a certain level? And if these levels exist, how flexible are they (what is their elasticity – in particular the Tory downward and Labour upward elasticity)?

    Caveats: Summer, LP disarray, fatigue of politics.

  41. Regarding David Miliband and Batley & Spen.

    What do we know so far?

    We know that the CLP has so far failed to nominate a candidate for the by-election. The Labour Whip needs to move a writ, yet this has not happened so far. The convention means that needs to happen by September 16th, and Parliament returns on the 5th September. Therefore, it is plain Labour are delaying the decision as much as possible.

    I suspect that all is not good with the CLP. Owen Smith won the CLP nomination, but the CLP membership was excluded from the vote, which was taken by delegates only. I know some of the senior people in the CLP, including some of the CLP Executive, and I have no doubt that a vote amongst the broader CLP would have led to a Corbyn nomination. I know the CLP Executive are very much more anti-Corbyn, and expected them to back Owen Smith accordingly.

    The Labour Party in Kirklees Council recently had a botched coup, where the Leader was removed, but his replacement failed to get the support of the non-Labour Councillors and some Labour Councillors. The removed Leader was then reinstalled, with his would-be replacement appointed Deputy Leader.

    Who will replace Jo Cox?

    I have one name in mind (a sitting Councillor), but there is no obvious person who I think would get broad local party support easily.

    I can think of one half of the Labour Party who would welcome DM with open arms, and the other which I suspect would not.

  42. @Laszlo
    Thanks for those ESRC figures, interesting. I wouldn’t be surprised if the age analysis is about right. There are quite a lot of oldsters (I mean 50 to 70+) amongst our new members here as well as a sprinkling of the very young. Many of the oldsters are returning members (like me, though I was an Ed Miliband joiner) and many of the youngsters are their kids.
    We’ll be doing more telephone canvassing over the next couple of weeks: from what we’ve done so far it looks like a draw though the nomination vote was 2-1 for Corbyn.

    Smithson is quoting the Mirror researching the Momentum claim that JC made 122 speeches during the referendum. Apparently it was about 10, but he was quoted in the media 123 times (not clear why 122 is quoted). The is called Straight Talking, Honest Politics.

  43. @Catman

    “The Labour Party in Kirklees Council recently had a botched coup, where the Leader was removed, but his replacement failed to get the support of the non-Labour Councillors and some Labour Councillors. The removed Leader was then reinstalled,…”

    ———

    So basically they’re just mirroring what’s been happening with Corbyn.?Botched coup etc…

  44. @Carfrew

    I’ve never thought of it like that, but yes, it’s a kind of mirroring.

  45. tense in the Lympics. Mo underway, Jess under pressure, Greg just retook the lead in the long jump, by 2cm…

  46. Mo fell and got up again…

  47. @GuyMonde

    10 speeches in a 3 month campaign? Less than one a week. The phrase “busting a gut” does not spring to mind. So much for “I did all I could” and “travelling the length and breadth of this country”.

    As you say, so much for “Straight Talking, Honest Politics”.

  48. @Catman

    Thanks for explaining some of Batley and Spen politics. I can’t quite see the reason for the delay unless it was in hope of using the vacancy to some particular advantage.

    As I understand it, it is the NEC who will issue the writ .. and probably the now infamous Procedural Committee which has a ‘rightwing’ majority (at least until after LP conference which takes place at the end of September, after the 16th September deadline).

    A problem for a David Miliband candidacy is that there was a lot of talk of an all women short list. But doubtless that could be varied and it sounds as if the CLP officers would welcome him back with open arms. In addition, it would be NEC members who would draw up the short list given that it is a by-election.

    However, I doubt that I’m alone in wondering why David Miliband would want to leave an interesting international job in New York to return to Westminister, where his chances of being elected leader by the current membership are by no means certain.

  49. With you Sue, cant see Milliband coming back with no chance of the leadership.

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