YouGov’s latest voting intention figures in the Times this morning are CON 42%(+2), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 12%(-1), GRN 3%(-1). The changes since last week are not significant in themselves, but push the Conservatives to a fourteen point lead, the largest from YouGov since November 2009.

It looks very much as if Theresa May is still enjoying a honeymoon as Tory leader (though the Tories may also be being aided by the disarray in the Labour party – it is impossible to disentangle one potential cause from the other).

Full tabs are here.


984 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 42, LAB 28, LD 8, UKIP 12”

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  1. Robin

    A friend of mine was a member of the youth wing of the labour party in the mid 80s and at that time a bit of a Kinnockite, she tells me that mostly they were trying to hold meetings at strange times to prevent militant types from attending and to vote left leaning people off committees. She is a bit ashamed of herself now but what she describes is exactly what you seem to be worried momentum will do. The ends justifies the means?

    Oddly on our side we are worried about the same thing and suspending local meetings, purging new supporters etc etc don’t make us feel any safer

  2. BARBAZENZERO

    “Proposals to reduce the likelihood of an early dissolution of Parliament were a key element of the 2010 Coalition Agreement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Initially the Coalition’s Programme for Government proposed a procedure for early dissolution on a vote of 55 per cent of the membership of the House of Commons by resolution of the House alone, but in the event the Government decided to move straight to legislation”
    ____________

    Ok I’ll concede and agree that the FTPA proposals were more to do with pressure from the Lib/Dems than Cameron himself. It’s probably one of the better decisions the coalition government came out with.

  3. ROGER MEXICO
    @ THE OTHER HOWARD

    From Rogers link…

    “Tory Environment Secretary wanted pensioners to pick fruit to cut immigration, Lib Dem claims”

    “though of course you won’t complain as you’ve had plenty of practice”
    __________

    LOL

  4. Actually the more I think of it I’m also in favour of pensioners picking fruit. We could have the likes of OLDNAT, THE OTHER HOWARD, CARFREW and COLIN dumping their slippers and crosswords for welly boots and fruit picking. It may even help bring down the price of my lunchtime smoothies.

  5. ““Tory Environment Secretary wanted pensioners to pick fruit to cut immigration, Lib Dem claims””

    Presumably if that happened, the Remain supporters would be accusing Leave-voting pensioners of cherry-picking.

  6. @CR

    On a tangential note, a major concern for many is that Momentum allows membership to those who do not necessarily have the party’s interests at heart. What would your view be of only allowing membership to those who are also members of the party (as is the case for Progress, as discussed before)?

  7. My partner is in lab and momentum and we are both supporters of jc.

    Frankly I too am sick of the childish remarks about jc supporters.

    It is not nice and it’s bollox.

  8. @ The Other Howard

    “Interesting to see that the majority still support the decision to leave the EU despite thinking that there will be an adverse effect on jobs and the economy. After leaving the EU immigration is still seen as the most important issue facing the UK …. It would appear that the public expect “hard Brexit”

    Indeed, the majority do indeed support the decision with hindsight, marginally more so than on referendum day itself.

    Intriguingly, in this poll it is remain voters who seem to be less confident in their choice than leavers.

    Whilst 94% of ‘Brexiters’ stick with their decision (2% would vote differently, 4% don’t know), a lower 89% of remainers continue to be of the mind they were on polling day (4% would vote differently, 7% don’t know).

    However, it is not true to say that this is in spite of a belief that there will be an adverse effect on jobs and the economy. The poll clearly shows that the overwhelming majority of leave voters anticipate either no change or improvements to the economy and jobs.

    Only 3% of leave voters think that Britain will be worse off economically by leaving the EU. 59% believe the country will be better off and 31% that there will be no change.

    Only 2% of leave voters believe that job prospects will be harmed by leaving the EU. 49% think they will be improved and 40% that there will be no difference.

    That’s an awful lot of Brexiters who are anticipating things to improve economically or at least stay as they were (on an arguably upwards trajectory).

    As we’ve discussed in the past, and the Governor of the Bank of England has made clear today – adding to a rash of poor economic outlook data https://twitter.com/louisabojesen/status/761142793800708096/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw – we seem set for a period of economic uncertainty, at least in the short term.

    Time will tell whether leave voters – who are anticipating that things are likely to improve for them, and the country, economically – continue to be as sure of their decision if we face a rocky 6-18 months.

    Incidentally, the reason why the overall figures for economic outlook appear so pessimistic is because of the bleak attitudes of the vast bulk of remain voters – 78% still believe the economy will worsen, 73% that the outlook for jobs is bad. These people could pf course be pleasantly surprised.

    On immigration, the question doesn’t actually ask people what they would like to see happen, but what they believe will happen.

    As such, the overall 47% who believe a fall in immigration is coming includes 21% of remain voters, who may well have been neutral on the issue as polling has previously suggested. It’s also worth bearing in mind that a proportion of the 75% of leavers who expect immigration to fall will also include those – B Johnson, Daniel Hannan etc – for whom the issue was not of primary importance compared to sovereignty.

    Likewise, we cannot be certain that all of the 49% of those who place immigration and asylum as a key issue have the concerns we might expect. In areas where there are large EU migrant populations, many of whom are the friends / spouses / relatives of UK citizens, their uncertain status may well be contributing in some measure to this being such a high scoring topic – just as both those for and against leaving the EU believe Brexit is now the number one issue.

    One point that caught my eye, namely that the group which voted most heavily for Brexit – the over 65s – did so without any great anticipation that it would benefit their pensions (16%0, but overwhelmingly believed they would be unaffected (despite Osborne’s warning). 58% expect them to be unaffected, I wonder what will be made of the ‘floating’ of the abandonment of the ‘triple lock’ which has been subtly going on, mainly unnoticed, over the last few weeks.

    No doubt, the support for Brexit is ascendant and continuing. It is, however, predicated on a firm belief amongst those who voted leave that the economy, jobs, the NHS will get better, immigration will fall and pensions will unchanged.

    The Prime Minister’s task, it seems, if she wants to hold the ‘Brexit coalition’ together, is to deliver all these things at once.

    One final note – I assume, with all the references to ‘Britain’ that we’re back in the GB territory with this poll. I can;t help wondering whether, if Northern Ireland had been included, it would essentially have delivered us a repeat of the actual result or slight remain swing.

  9. @Mark W

    What childish remarks are you referring to?

  10. @ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Soz to have to pick you up on this but I AM NOT A PENSIONER!!!!!!

    I don’t even behave like one. I don’t have an allotment and hardly ever go to Lidl.

    And I don’t barge into people like the boomers at the festival.

    kthx.

  11. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    It’s probably one of the better decisions the coalition government came out with.

    I agree, and I’m certainly not saying you were wrong. Cameron may well have been the deciding influence in moving from the commons motion idea to the full FTPA, if only because of concern that his pro-Brexit “colleagues” could have been even more of an awkward squad than they actually were, given that an admittedly unlikely Labour-led rainbow coalition was a distinct possibility at the time.

  12. I sometimes go to Aldi for the booze but LOTS OF YOUNGER PEOPLE DO THAT and it’s right by the Waitrose…

  13. @ Colin

    “FTSE up 1.5% this morning !”

    And the Pound is off by almost exactly the same amount against the US Dollar.

    In fact if you look at the two markets you can see that the FTSE went up almost exactly in tandem with the Sterling’s fall.

    With so much of the business of the largest companies quoted on the FTSE 100 essentially conducted in USD or non-Sterling denominations but their capitalisation in GBP, any devaluation of the pound reduces their effective value and the market has been adjusting to compensate.

    This has happened repeatedly since June 23rd and accounts for a significant proportion of that markets gain. Second guessing falls in sterling and reciprocal growth in stock values has been a very good way of ‘buying pounds’, handy if you have a large UK purchase to make.

    Today, this has been supported by the announcement of further QE, which has helped appreciate financial services shares, but really there’s not much going on here in the way of indicating confidence in the ‘real’ UK economy.

    The FTSE 250 does appear to be doing much better than most thought at this stage, perhaps some genuine optimism around export growth and overseas consumer spend, we shall see.

    Certainly it can’t be a reflection of the economic forecasts from the BoE or anyone else all of whom have down-rated growth prospects for the UK economy significantly – though of course they may be proved wrong, it is normally sentiment and forecast to which the markets react.

  14. @ Carfrew

    “And I don’t barge into people like the boomers at the festival.”

    But aren’t you a ‘boomer’ having been at school and university in the 1970s?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers

  15. @Assiduous

    It’s borderline. By some measures I am, by others not. But I’m definitely not one of the pensioner boomers who barges peeps…

    Ok so my gf goes to pilates but she is nearly a decade younger than me and also got barged, though not as much…

  16. @Assiduous

    I went to Uni in the Eighties btw

  17. David Carrod

    Due to the height of my cherry tree, your witty comment about the picking of cherries is “just for the birds”. :-)

  18. @ Carfrew

    Very borderline, school in the 70s, University in the 80s, Boomer, 60s child rising.

  19. Brexit

    I’m sure others on here will know about this

    https://global.handelsblatt.com/breaking/exclusive-britain-has-a-e25-billion-e-u-bill-outstanding

    The European Union has for years been moving around a debt mountain totaling more than €200 billion, known as “Reste à liquider” (RAL). A high-ranking E.U. official said Britain’s portion amounts to €25 billion.

    The European Commission is determined not to allow Britain to leave the European Union without paying. Some lawyers in the commission believe that non-payment would amount to a credit default on Britain’s part.

    I hadn’t heard of this before. Presumably, that bill will keep rising as £ drops against the Euro?

  20. “The European Commission is determined not to allow Britain to leave the European Union without paying. Some lawyers in the commission believe that non-payment would amount to a credit default on Britain’s part.”

    And how would they enforce payment? We should just tell them to go and whistle up their kilts, to demonstrate how little power this failed organisation actually has.

  21. @ OldNat

    Re: Reste à liquider

    Yes. It’s a function of the EU’s long term and multinational funding programmes, which span over budgetary years and in which committed and actual spend tend not to run in temporal tandem (diplo-speak for accrual and countries not paying their divs).

    There are periodic reports on the whole thing by the Commission (sometimes the auditors) to the Parliament and Council, which are available to read on line. The Commission has been trying to move the member states to a better position for years without huge success – there are notable arrears from certain countries.

    I’m surprised that the UK’s backlog is that large, but it could well be – perhaps this figure is based on forward commitments.

    This along with matters such as pension liabilities for UK ‘Eurocrats’, contributions to joint international aid programmes, the funding of single market operation (if we remain a part of the market or sections of it) will need to come out in the financial wash and will all diminish the ‘pot of gold’ at the end of the rainbow.

    None of this should come as a surprise to anyone – well, actually it probably does to Messrs Johnson, Fox and Davis – but will have to be resolved, as there’s nothing more likely to disincline the EU 27 (and German politicians, mindful of their electorate) to doing a good deal, than the idea that the UK is seeking to ‘escape’ monies owed.

    Of course, as has often been reiterated here, other options: ‘hard Brexit’, WTO rules, A50 and expiry of two years etc are available, but other countries would be cautious if we were seen not to have paid our way in this regard – that said the US and others didn’t pay the UN for years, it depends how important you are – or believe yourselves to be…

  22. Tancred – “Who cares? It’s not ‘the people’ who have to negotiate with Merkel and others, it’s the UK government and it’s the government that will decide what is in the best interest of the nation.”

    Most of the adjustment to Brexit will have been done by the private sector before Mrs May pulls the trigger on Article 50.

    Businesses up and down the kingdom are reassessing their business models, trying to diversify their customer bases and suppliers to non-EU sources to protect against a hard Brexit. Those businesses who have been recruiting exclusively from eastern europe, will probably put a freeze on european hiring because they don’t know the status of their workers and don’t want to be in a situation where their entire factory has to leave all at once. They know they’ve got two years to adjust, and will likely let natural wastage do it’s job, hiring replacements locally. Those businesses over-reliant on very low wages may start thinking about automating, sparking off productivity improvements at last. Even BTL landlords who specialise in only renting to Eastern Europeans will either be selling up or trying to get British tenants, as natural wastage sees existing tenants leave.

    Of course the falling pound acts like a great enforcer – it makes sense for example for supermarkets to start sourcing food from South Africa and Argentina, given that those countries have a weak currency compared to ours, especially now that Morrisons has started a price war and there are margins to protect. And the whole remittance thing practised by european workers doesn’t work so well if the pound is low – better for the eastern europeans to head to Germany instead.

    Massive adjustments will be taking place below the surface, and the more complete these are by the time Mrs May triggers Article 50, the easier her job will be. Our economy is going to look quite different in a couple of years time, we’ll likely see productivity improvements as companies come up with creative solutions to protect their businesses.

  23. Assiduosity

    So part of it, at least, is like the £2 trillion + of unfunded pension liabilities accrued by the UK?

  24. @Assiduous

    Jeez I volunteered my borderline status in the past, numerous times. You’re not catching me out on anything, or regealing anything new, you’re just being a bit Inspector Clouseau. Esp. because it was about being a pensioner…

  25. And you got the University bit wrong, and incidentally most who went to uni in the eighties are definitely not boomers….

  26. @ David Carrod

    “And how would they enforce payment? We should just tell them to go and whistle up their kilts, to demonstrate how little power this failed organisation actually has.”

    Indeed. The damage would be reputational to the UK rather than the loss being recoverable in law by the EU.

    The only possible court where any form of ‘justice’ would be conceivable is the International Court of Justice (as the matter would appertain to a ratified treaty), but I think this is highly unlikely for a host of reasons.

  27. @ Carfrew

    I’m not being Inspector Clouseau at all.

    I merely remembered your mentioning last week that you were finishing up at school in the 1970s, I think it was during the broader discussion about grammar / public school education.

    It simply occurred to me as you brought up ‘boomers’ again today, that you probably fitted into the demographic, albeit in a borderline way. I’d never noticed you mentioning it before, though I can’t claim to have read all your posts.

    Apologies for any offence cause, none intended.

  28. @OldNat

    “So part of it, at least, is like the £2 trillion + of unfunded pension liabilities accrued by the UK?”

    No. The pensions are a different matter from “Reste à liquider”, which refers to ongoing current EU programmes as opposed to liabilities.

    The pensions obligations would sit alongside.

    Caveat: the article linked to is very short and general so the EU official could have been doing a quick and dirty calculation of all the amounts ‘owing’ by the UK to the EU.

    Either way substantial sums are involved.

  29. @Assiduous

    Argh, more quibbling. Not only do you not read all the posts, you misread the ones you do read.* I said I was at school in the Seventies but didn’t say I finished in the Seventies. I finished school in the Eighties.

    You haven’t offended, it’s just needless quibbling that wastes time and does nothing to help with the looming epidemic of barging.

    * As a goodwill gesture to put it behind us and move on, you should know I read lots of your posts, even the wrong ones…

  30. “Our economy is going to look quite different in a couple of years time, we’ll likely see productivity improvements as companies come up with creative solutions to protect their businesses.”

    —————

    Well they could always hire more immigrants from outside the EU…

  31. @ Carfrew

    Thank you for the gesture of goodwill.

    Just to clarify, obviously I will read all the posts in a thread if I’m going to comment.

    What I meant is that I couldn’t claim to have read all the posts you’d ever written here – I wasn’t aware there was such a high benchmark for participation.

    Now, good luck as you seek to avoid barging from your fellow boomers. I’m off to the theatre, where I hoe there will be little in the way of barging, but, I suspect, many boomers.

  32. @CARFREW
    “the looming epidemic of barging.”

    As a proper boomer who left grammar school in 1966, and also having played rugby for 35 years, I lay claim to being the champion barger on this site.

    The epidemic is not ‘looming’ round these parts, it’s already happening.

  33. @CANDY

    “Massive adjustments will be taking place below the surface, and the more complete these are by the time Mrs May triggers Article 50, the easier her job will be. Our economy is going to look quite different in a couple of years time, we’ll likely see productivity improvements as companies come up with creative solutions to protect their businesses.”

    I just hope that the Poles and Lithuanians won’t be replaced with Bangladeshis and Nepalese. Companies in the UK need to pay people more and use the home grown workforce instead of always looking outside; and that is not just for manual jobs, for professional ones too.

    All we can do is wait and see but I feel that without a quick and simple solution to the EU relationship is essential in order to move forward. We are now at risk of recession and inflation – we need to nip these in the bud before they happen.

  34. @Carfrew

    It’s harder to do – non-EU migrant workers need to get a work permit from the Home Office – they cost about £600 for a year or £1000 for three years, and are only granted to persons of good standing (no convictions, no congestion charge fines etc). The type for whom it’s worth paying for a work permit are skilled workers – IT people, medical folk etc.

    It is not worth it for the low paid – so businesses will automate, start paying more for Brits or a combination of the two.

  35. @DAVID CARROD

    “And how would they enforce payment? We should just tell them to go and whistle up their kilts, to demonstrate how little power this failed organisation actually has.”

    Through international law, that’s how. If we didn’t pay it would also affect our international credit rating, as well damage us diplomatically.

  36. @Tancred

    See my response to Carfrew. Non-EU migrants are subject to a point system plus have to pay for work permits.

  37. @CANDY

    “It’s harder to do – non-EU migrant workers need to get a work permit from the Home Office – they cost about £600 for a year or £1000 for three years, and are only granted to persons of good standing (no convictions, no congestion charge fines etc). The type for whom it’s worth paying for a work permit are skilled workers – IT people, medical folk etc.”

    The work permit fees don’t seem very high to me. If it was up to me I’d increase them tenfold! That would make businesses think twice before importing job stealing staff here.

  38. David Carrod

    While you are but a lad (still at school in 1966!) you have me on the barging at sport side of things. There’s not much opportunities for that in golf.

    So, I cede victory to you.

  39. Robin

    I don’t know anyone who is a member of momentum that isn’t also a Labour Party member. Although considering that the first thing you see on the momentum sign up page is “if you are not already a Labour party member, sign up here” there must be a few. I see where you are going with this, shadowy back figures using a popular movement to infiltrate the patrty etc etc, but I really don’t see it as plausible and I’m quite fond of conspiracy theories.

    Momentum was set up to campaign for corbyn and that’s still its role and while we have registered supporters and affiliated members I don’t believe its strictly necessary for momentum members to also be labour party members although definitely preferably. But I do think that the aims of momentum are starting to change, its evolving, when momentum starts to advocate and develop policy ideas then I think your point will become valid. Im pretty sure that momentum will move in that direction.

    On progress, I’m disturbed that a group within labour receives large amounts of corporate money and huge individual donations. I would like labour to adopt a policy of not accepting donations over an amount equal to 10% of average annual earnings and I’d like that policy to become in time Uk law. Im opposed to all large political donations

  40. @Assiduous

    ” Just to clarify, obviously I will read all the posts in a thread if I’m going to comment.

    What I meant is that I couldn’t claim to have read all the posts you’d ever written here – I wasn’t aware there was such a high benchmark for participation.”

    ———-

    Thanks for the clarification, more quibbling that’s entirely unnecessary since I hadn’t suggested that you had to read all my posts or that I had set “such a high benchmark”.

    Rather than wishing you read peeps posts, those herculean powers of continuing to get the wrong end of the stick might actually lead peeps to hope you didn’t read their posts!!

    As another goodwill gesture, that hopefully this time will be rewarded by no more quibbling, I should warn you that you’re not entirely safe in the theatre, they can still get you in the bar…

  41. @ASSIDUOSITY

    “No doubt, the support for Brexit is ascendant and continuing. It is, however, predicated on a firm belief amongst those who voted leave that the economy, jobs, the NHS will get better, immigration will fall and pensions will unchanged.”

    It is for now, but we are in the ‘phoney war’ stage of Brexit and once war is declared on the EU with the invocation of article 50 then the bombs and bullets will start to fly. It won’t be pretty – both sides will use dirty tricks and commando tactics galore.

  42. @TANCRED
    “Through international law, that’s how”

    I see. But in which court would that be? Also, the EU as Claimant would have to prove their case by showing that the UK signed a document agreeing to this liability, rather than it being an arbitrary figure made up by some Brussels bureaucrat to cover their financial incompetence.

    And even in the unlikely event that an International court found the UK to be liable, how would they actually enforce it? Send bailiffs to the Bank of England to remove gold bars?

  43. CANDY

    @”Massive adjustments will be taking place below the surface,”

    Indeed-we are learning to think for ourselves again.

    And the Government will not escape this exam. All the inward EU subsidy will have to be thought through again from scratch. At least I hope they will rather than just promising to continue existing payment patterns.

    For example we will need to think from scratch about the £3bn our farmers currently receive each year in subsidy. What is it we want the farming community to achieve?

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/04/national-trust-calls-for-complete-reform-of-british-farm-subsidies

    There will be a lot of this in the months & years ahead.

  44. @Candy

    Well despite the impediments, they still seem to get quite a lot, and business may be prepared to pay extra once denied EU easy pickings.

    And of course, if powers-that-be wanna keep growing population then they may find ways to make it easier. And you can leave the EU but you can’t leave the world…

  45. @Assiduosity re pension contributions
    ” the matter would appertain to a ratified treaty” which Treaty in its Article 50 says “The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2”
    Article 50 was added late, [2007?] and I sometimes think it was drafted with an expectation that it would never be used.
    I understand that the approach to demanding future contributions is that the EU budget is the responsibility of all member states – that includes the UK now, but not when we have left.

  46. @Tancred

    I’m sure the govt would love to put up the work permit fees – nice revenue stream for them!

    The point is, if you are a factory worker on minimum wage, it’s not worth paying for a work permit. Especially if your whole intention of working in the UK is to send money back to Poland and the pound has fallen by 10%. Better to head to Germany and do factory work there.

    I absolutely agree that we need to get British nationals getting first dibs on those jobs, and on better pay – for one thing, they start to pay tax as they earn more, and the fiscal hole starts to get filled. Business has been resistant to entreaties from govt though, especially as they had an inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. Now the voters have given them a kick up the backside, and lets see how they respond. It’s imperative the govt doesn’t cave and instead forces them to stop being lazy and come up with creative solutions. If the solution is capital investment to automate more – that improves our productivity. If it is a combination of productivity improvements and wage rises that will be good too. Even if they are forced to move people from zero hours to full time, because there is a need to secure labour now the cheap stuff has gone, that is an improvement.

  47. David Carrod

    “Send bailiffs to the Bank of England to remove gold bars?”

    What gold bars?

    Of course, Scotland is once again producing its own gold, but only 8 ounces so far.

    http://www.miningglobal.com/miningsites/1998/Gold-star-for-Scotland:-first-gold-to-be-produced-at-Scottish-mine

    Who knows? We might pay off some of the English debt to keep you guys out of trouble.

    As some future English national poet might put it “We were bought and sold with Scottish gold : Such a parcel of rogues in the nation”.

    :-)

  48. @David Carrod

    “And even in the unlikely event that an International court found the UK to be liable, how would they actually enforce it? Send bailiffs to the Bank of England to remove gold bars?”

    ————-

    Well they could enforce clearing to be done in Eurozone banks etc…

    regarding the great game of rugby, yes, properly sanctioned barging on the sports field is summat else entirely. Especially because it’s ok to barge them back…

  49. Dave

    “I understand that the approach to demanding future contributions is that the EU budget is the responsibility of all member states – that includes the UK now, but not when we have left.”

    Any arguments deployed by the UK in response to the EU, will then automatically apply when Scotland leaves the UK, I presume?

  50. @CANDY

    “The point is, if you are a factory worker on minimum wage, it’s not worth paying for a work permit. Especially if your whole intention of working in the UK is to send money back to Poland and the pound has fallen by 10%. Better to head to Germany and do factory work there.”

    True. But many Poles don’t like Germany for obvious historical reasons. Not our problem, true, but it won’t do wonders for Anglo-Polish relations.

    I agree with you on the remainder of your post.

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