YouGov’s latest voting intention figures in the Times this morning are CON 42%(+2), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 12%(-1), GRN 3%(-1). The changes since last week are not significant in themselves, but push the Conservatives to a fourteen point lead, the largest from YouGov since November 2009.

It looks very much as if Theresa May is still enjoying a honeymoon as Tory leader (though the Tories may also be being aided by the disarray in the Labour party – it is impossible to disentangle one potential cause from the other).

Full tabs are here.


984 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 42, LAB 28, LD 8, UKIP 12”

1 18 19 20
  1. Shevii

    Sorry, I can’t be explaining this clearly enough.

    Like any other country, we will, post-Brexit, have access to the Single Market, in the sense that we can sell goods into it, paying the common external tariff in the absence of a free trade in goods deal.

    Or we can aim for continued membership of the Single Market. Which means free trade in services as well as goods, and freedom from all the non-tariff barriers to trade that exist between countries.

    It’s if we want that privileged status – equivalent, in trade terms, to, say, California’s trading rights with the rest of the USA – that we have to accept the four freedoms.

    It’s only if we want to continue trading as freely as if we were still members of the EU, that we will have to accept the fundamental principles of the Single Market.

    So, to get back to your original query, it isn’t a case of the EU trying to impose something on us.

  2. somerjohn

    When selling the Single Market the Four Freedoms can be sold as a positive – allowing us all to take advantage of movement across the EU.

  3. Prof Howard

    Absolutely. I keep using the USA analogy. It’s an economic superpower not because of its huge population (60% of the EU’s), or uniquely rich resources, but because it’s a single market that has allowed business to flourish through economies of scale, a huge domestic market and (almost) unfettered mobility of goods, capital, services and labour.

  4. It seems that only 7% of the GMB membership voted because there wasn’t a general ballot of the membership.

    According to Private Eye: ” rather than ballot members to ascertain the rank and file view Roache ( general secretary) has decided there will instead be a “wide consultation” that will see the unions paid officials talk only to those they wish to talk to – if indeed they talk to anyone at all. With the GMB central executive set to support Smith – Corbyn being out of favour because of his anti Trident stance’

    60:40 doesn’t look quite so convincing in that circumstance.

  5. somerjohn

    Absolutely.

    And far more foreign investment will come if we can emphasise that there are no restrictions on recruitment. The four freedoms are very enriching for us as a country and an economy, so we must all try to push hard that they are retained post Brexit.

  6. PETE B
    Solution to the Irish problem:
    1) Unite the two parts

    If you mean that you need to tear up the Belfast Agreement [brokered by Senator Mitchell on behalf of US Pres. Clinton] and also the EU’s role. See the Torygraph’s Could Brexit disturb the peace in Northern Ireland?, which includes:

    The EU has played an active role in facilitating the peace process by encouraging much better community relations through its unique peace programme that was designed to support peace and reconciliation in the border region. Peace IV has just been approved and has earmarked some €269m to this end until 2020.

    If you propose doing it constitutionally, there has to be a referendum in NI agreeing to whatever change of status the NI people will have PLUS a “border poll” in which both the RoI and NI have to agree to re-unite.

    Absent that, I suppose it might help reduce the singing by Glasgow [new] Rangers supporters of songs about Fenian blood, but would certainly promote the use of Perfidious Albion as the appropriate moniker for the rUK.

    2) Offer free resettlement into Scotland for any Unionists not happy (that’s where they came from to start with)

    As it happens, Ireland was a fiefdom of the English crown not the Scottish and it was hardly all current residents of the six counties who came from Scotland, but I suspect that the Scottish Government would not object to that [whether in or out of the UK union] provided Westminster built decent homes for them all.

    3) Stop all preferential treatment of Irish citizens in UK, such as right to vote etc.

    That might just be calculable from the 2020 census if correlated with the electoral rolls, but would be a fairly major computing project. OTOH, that could prove a useful way of employing some of the E&W computer professionals who would otherwise be on the dole.

  7. @ Barbazenzero

    “Fair enough, and please use BZ if you don’t have copy and paste.”

    Hey- I did and sure I got it right!!!! I’m feeling very misunderstood tonight :-)

  8. BZ:

    Might not the SNP government hesitate before accepting the movement of all those Unionists to Scotland?

  9. DAVE @Shevii & Somerjohn
    [IIRC the USA in its early days put many of its inhabitants into reservations, with greatly restricted movement.]

    Yes, and for the 1st 87years of existence it allowed slavery too. I suspect [or at least hope] you’re not for that.

    In 20xx or whenever the UK leaves the EU it should be on the basis of what the people want. Whether that is to be out of the EU or not will depend on what the electorate vote for, presumably via the obsolete [in the rest of the EU] plurality system.

  10. BZ
    “Whether that is to be out of the EU or not will depend on what the electorate vote for”

    You must have been asleep. That vote has been done. June 23rd. Goodnight.

  11. Prof Howard

    “Might not the SNP government hesitate before accepting the movement of all those Unionists to Scotland?”

    Since their “Unionism” is specifically about keeping NI in the UK, one wonders how long they would continue to want to remain united with a London government which had betrayed its promises to them so thoroughly!

    That letter from Foster and McGuiness seems to be quite a development though.

    It may indicate a preference for a “hard border” between Ireland and Great Britain, rather than on the island of Ireland itself.

    Could Foster hold the DUP together, if that was indeed the preferred solution?

  12. @DAVE

    Personally, I don’t want Britain to remain an insular little island off the coast of Europe with no influence and say in a united Europe. Britain can do a lot more than that.
    The trouble is that Europe is currently undefined as an entity – at the moment it’s more of an ideal than a tangible ‘thing’. Where does Europe begin and end? I think this is one issue troubles many people not only in the UK but everywhere else in the EU. Few people want any more expansion – east or south. Moving to include Turkey is a big mistake and I’m sure it won’t happen. And there is no chance that Ukraine, Belarus and Russia would join the EU for a long time, given the political situation there.
    What is needed is a proper definition of ‘Europe’ as a distinct global entity and with a culturally united identity. We need a vision for Europe – and this is why Cameron and his acolytes did so badly – they failed to provide one. Europe needs to stand for something – you can’t just put in on a balance sheet and say that ‘we are better in’ without giving people an emotional connection they can all identify with. This is the main reason why ‘remain’ lost the referendum – people vote with their hearts, not their heads.

  13. Old Nat

    I find it hard to forsee, I can’t quite see NI being in a different tariff area from GB tho.

  14. DAVE @Shevii & Somerjohn
    But the EU is bent on using customs union, four freedoms etc to aid the move to a political EU.

    You’re perhaps a little OTT there, but I’d agree with your basic suggestion had there been referendums to confirm both Maastricht & Lisbon. To be fair, the LDs did support an in/out referendum over Lisbon but for reasons best known to the Cons they wouldn’t agree.

    Had you and a few more voted LD in 2005 then your wish to be out of the EU could have been achieved before 2010. As it is now, the process of leaving could well take a decade.

  15. PETE B
    That vote has been done. June 23rd. Goodnight.

    That was the “UK” one to which NI, Scotland & Wales suggested that National “locks” be applied.

    Now we’re just getting to the stage where the Westminster government will soon realise that it must either get approval from the NI electorate or abrogate an International treaty to do be able to Brexit.

    Let’s see where they get to in the next few years before rushing to conclusions about what Brexit turns out to be. Some sources suggest that it would be folly to invoke A50 until after the 2020 UK GE, so don’t hold your breath.

    Time will tell, of couse.

  16. @SOMERJOHN

    “It’s if we want that privileged status – equivalent, in trade terms, to, say, California’s trading rights with the rest of the USA – that we have to accept the four freedoms.
    It’s only if we want to continue trading as freely as if we were still members of the EU, that we will have to accept the fundamental principles of the Single Market.”

    This is the key thing. And we need a PM who is brave enough to lead from the front and promote the ‘freedoms’ instead of meekly apologising for the ‘faults’ of the EU like David Cameron. The British people need to persuaded that this path is for their own good, and the arguments need to be hammered home relentlessly, just like the Mail, Express and Sun have spewed out their poison for years without a proper response from the government. I don’t have much confidence that May is capable of doing this.

  17. PROFHOWARD
    Might not the SNP government hesitate before accepting the movement of all those Unionists to Scotland?

    1. The SG would feel obliged to accept it. Given their stance on “free movement” they could hardly complain provide Westminster picked up the “resettlement” tab.

    2. How many of the DUP & UUP supporters would still be unionists once they had been forcibly ejected [from their point of view] from their homes by Westminster?

  18. Prof Howard

    “I find it hard to forsee, I can’t quite see NI being in a different tariff area from GB tho.”

    But could you have foreseen, or imagined, Foster signing that letter though?

    The (largely unconsidered) effects of Brexit will force decisions on every party, that might have been unimaginable in June.

  19. @BARBAZENZERO

    “Let’s see where they get to in the next few years before rushing to conclusions about what Brexit turns out to be. Some sources suggest that it would be folly to invoke A50 until after the 2020 UK GE, so don’t hold your breath.”

    I think May could well do that. Her relatively thin parliamentary majority and a potentially hostile House of Lords could cause her great embarrassment if she were to put article 50 to a vote in parliament. The 2020 GE will probably be a Tory landslide and most of the new Tory MPs most likely pro-Brexit, so she would be in safer waters to wait until then.

  20. Tancred

    “And we need a PM who is brave enough to lead from the front and promote the ‘freedoms’ instead of meekly apologising for the ‘faults’ of the EU like David Cameron. The British people need to persuaded that this path is for their own good”

    Emm, good luck with that. It really doesn’t benefit everyone equally

  21. “But could you have foreseen, or imagined, Foster signing that letter though?”

    The letter doesn’t surprise me – nor Arlene Foster signing it.

  22. “2. How many of the DUP & UUP supporters would still be unionists once they had been forcibly ejected [from their point of view] from their homes by Westminster?”

    The scheme as I understand it was only for those who wished to avail of it. I would imagine those would be the most strongly unionist folks.

    Of course – its all pie in the sky as relocation of this type is not a serious option.

  23. OLDNAT
    It may indicate a preference for a “hard border” between Ireland and Great Britain, rather than on the island of Ireland itself.

    I confess I hadn’t considered that option. Clearly it could work in an HK-style scenario with NI in the EU, but even that would likely not be smiled upon by the DUP membership.

    If it’s a “real” Brexit, then that would effectively legalise smuggling on the island of Ireland. I can’t see that being terribly worrying to the RoI until the GBP starts approaching equality with the Zimbabwean Dollar [currently appx. 0.00276319 USD]. Long before then, the RoI would have to be protectionist and close the border.

    I suppose that could be argued by Westminster as a breach of the Belfast Agreement but they would hardly be able to convince any reasonable court to agree.

    I can’t help but be amazed at how little thought the NI out campaign gave to such issues, let alone the campaign leaders including the Chevening Three.

  24. SHEVII
    Hey- I did and sure I got it right!!!!

    Sorry about that. I was just trying to be helpful.

    Feel free to use @ Barbazenzero whenever you wish.

  25. I still don’t believe that brexit is going to happen, I’m guessing a lot of brexiters also don’t think its going to happen. I just don’t believe that the city will allow it.

    It would be useful if there was a poll on peoples expectation of brexit happening rather than their desire for it to happen

  26. TANCRED @SOMERJOHN
    And we need a PM who is brave enough to lead from the front and promote the ‘freedoms’ instead of meekly apologising for the ‘faults’ of the EU like David Cameron

    Well put, I suspect that although May is a grown-up she is not quite brave enough to do that yet and is banking on the failure of the Chevening Three being early enough for her to “come out” in favour of “Brexit is too costly to trade & the union”.

  27. CAMBRIDGERACHEL
    It would be useful if there was a poll on peoples expectation of brexit happening rather than their desire for it to happen

    That would indeed be most interesting. I can’t see the print media being motivated to do one, though, perhaps apart from the FT.

    Maybe Lord Ashcroft would run one if we all ask nicely:<)}

  28. @CAMBRIDGERACHEL

    In the only 2 national referendums this country has had (1975 EEC and 2011 AV) the democratic result has been followed. As with the regional Scottish 2014 referendum. Along with our history of around 330 years of political stability and the strict following of legal precedent, to suggest the City “won’t allow” the democratic process to proceed is wishful thinking at best and far over-estimates the City’s actual power.

    The terms of the 2016 EU referendum are clear. We are to leave the European Union and that is what will happen.

    How our future trade relationship in terms of goods, services and freedom of movement pans out will be the subject of the A50 negotiation.

  29. Don’t think it’s much to do with the city as whether Brexit happens or not, but it will be the subject of much thought among electors shortly, I suspect.

    If we are falling off a similar economic cliff as in 2009, as the current data suggests, and if the EU agrees to brakes and restrictions on free movement, as reports suggest, then I can foresee quite a few people thinking about staying.

    For May, with her modestly remain impression, this would be extremely helpful, and she can play the democrat by seeking to trust the people once again, when the implications and outcomes are clearer.

    I suspect that this is why she has placed those Brexit ministers in key posts – so if and when a second vote comes, they won’t be able to make up a pile of nonsense about Brexit, as they will have spent the last few months/years actually settling up what will happen.

    Odds are currently slightly more than 50/50 that we will remain, I’d say, but it really will depend on how serious the economic collapse is.

  30. @Sea Change

    You are not completely correct. This referendum result was never implemented:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maltese_United_Kingdom_integration_referendum,_1956

  31. @cambridgerachel

    “I still don’t believe that brexit is going to happen, I’m guessing a lot of brexiters also don’t think its going to happen. I just don’t believe that the city will allow it.”

    Well, for one I sincerely hope you are right, although it would take a major political earthquake for that to happen.
    The City can cause a lot of problems for the government, so they do have influence, though I am not convinced that it is 100% pro-EU. Many in the City are pro-leave; they just certain safeguards for their industry.

  32. @SEACHANGE

    “The terms of the 2016 EU referendum are clear. We are to leave the European Union and that is what will happen.”

    The terms are clear alright. Referendums are consultative in the British constitution, not binding and parliament does not have to follow the referendum vote.

  33. @Tancred

    Except British law and constitutional matters are decided by precedent and the terms of the Referendum – leaving the EU – will be followed. Parliament is sovereign but when it asks the people for direction on a major constitutional question it will follow the direction or create a constitutional crisis.

    Any other interpretation is really wishful thinking.

    As for the Maltese referendum that had nothing to do with the British electorate. It was an overseas territory.

    @alec there will be no economic collapse before A50 as nothing essentially changes. Therefore there will not be such armageddon that forces a Government resignation and a General Election with a party coming to power on the promise to take us back into the EU.

1 18 19 20