YouGov released a new Scottish poll last night, their first poll on Scottish Independence since the EU referendum. Voting intention in another Independence referendum stands at YES 47%(+1), NO 53%(-1). Changes are from May and don’t suggest any significant difference from before the EU referendum (tabs here).

There were several polls before the European referendum suggesting that a Brexit vote would push a majority of Scots towards supporting independence, but people are not necessarily good judges of how they would respond to hypothetical situations.

On the weekend straight after after the EU referendum there were snap Scottish polls from Panelbase and Survation that had suggested a majority in favour of independence. That may be down to methodological differences, or may simply be down to timing – one can easily imagine that a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of the unexpected EU result would produce different results to one taken a month later when the news has sunk in (and indeed, that we might well see different results once British exit has been negotiated and its full impact is clear to the Scottish electorate)


610 Responses to “YouGov Scottish Independence poll”

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  1. @Laszlo

    Sorry, same initial letter…

    Grounds for expulsion?

  2. @ Robin

    “On what grounds?”

    Breaching Chapter one, Clause 1 (3). That should b sufficient.

  3. CB11

    @” He’s their long-awaited revenge over the centrist and social democratic Labour MPs and members who they feel have hijacked their party these last 20 years”

    Spot on I reckon-it comes over loud & clear in that Vice interview I posted upthread :-

    “”The worst period was in 1993. People were so desperate to win after losing a series of elections; they allowed Peter Mandelson to turn the party, or at least some of the party, into New Labour. We never signed up to it, neither did most of our members,” insisted Corbyn.
    But it happened. The left of the Labour Party was calling the shots less than it had ever been and Blair, Brown and Mandelson took the helm. Under their leadership, the Labour Party were in Government for 12 years, in which time they refused to reverse the Thatcherite curbs on trade union powers, came up with tuition fees, and introduced substantial privatising reforms in education and health – all anathema to my interviewees.
    McDonnell’s eyes thinned, clearly still pissed off. “We had a coup, by a group of three extremely well funded neoliberals, taking over and party isolating the left as much as they could, driving through policies on behalf of capital.”

    This was back in 1994, over 20 years ago, and yet Corbyn too remembered it with venom. “When John Smith [former Labour leader] died, it was less than six hours later that word was going round that Blair was going to be standing for leader. John’s body hadn’t even left the hospital.”

  4. @Laszlo

    “The Party shall bring together members and
    supporters who share its values to develop policies,
    make communities stronger through collective
    action and support, and promote the election of
    Labour Party representatives at all levels of the
    democratic process.”

    Be serious. If you think that applies then Corbyn should be expelled for failing to develop policies.

  5. @ Robin

    The rules are applied by the victors.

    The LP problem has to be sorted out – I suppose there is no probl m or disagreement there.

    If Corbyn wins, he would have to have some safeguards for the PLP. Anyone who don’t sign up for it in a meaningful way expel them (it has to be to avoid the constitutional problem) and the quoted passage is the best way to do it (with a Corbyn dominated NEC it wouldn’t be a problem).

    I don’t think Corbyn would do it – unfortunately, although his quietness since the full blown plot could be telling.

    It has nothing to do with Corbyn’s skills or leadership or whatever. A pure and simple administrative measure.

  6. @ Colin

    It is always more fruitful to read a conservative leaning commentator’s views on Corbyn than one of the Labour opponents.

    It is clearer, more precise and better tackling on key issues.

    Mind, if the Labour membership is continuing to shift to the left, I may even join.

  7. Anyway, just to copy Alec’s mantra

    Nobody has come up with any argument to take apart the two academic studies (both with clearly declared methodology) that stated that there is a systematic anti-Corbyn media coverage which actually hurts democracy.

    Anyway, I don’t know if it is a private or public polling of labour members is going on, but I have heard about two (maybe three, but the questions were kind of similar, so I couldn’t decide if it was just the wrong recall or two different polls).

  8. Is the 20% lead for Corbyn outside the rigging range do we think? A lot of accusations of gmandering today with the voter eligibility. What a mess Labour have got themselves in, clearly they just have to run with Corbyn until the next election. Smith and his Mr Whippy ice cream van need to give in really.

  9. @Lazslo – “There is pretty good (although still far too soft) response to Owen Jones in H. post. It’s still worthwhile reading it.”

    Fantastic, really, finding out that Jones was actually trying to undermine Corbyn from day 1, and is only saying these things now because of “…..petulant resentment by a celeb no longer quite as centre-stage as he was accustomed to being.”

    Trying to claim Labour is doing OK in ‘real’ votes, that Corbyn has the vision but it’s just those nasty MPs that are stopping him, dodging entirely the point about a media strategy.

    If you think that is a good response, then I can see why Labour are stuffed.

  10. @ Rich

    The High Court decision on the six-month rule is expected on Thursday.

    I think there would be a hell of a lot vote for Whippy – having said that, his far too loud Green Sleaves may turn away many potential voters.

  11. @Lazslo – “Nobody has come up with any argument to take apart the two academic studies (both with clearly declared methodology) that stated that there is a systematic anti-Corbyn media coverage which actually hurts democracy.”

    That’s probably because there isn’t one. I rather suspect that nearly every poster on UKPR would agree that the media is biased against Corbyn.

    Most of us I think would also agree that this hurts democracy.

    This is why some of us are in despair about Corbyn’s complete inability to craft any kind of media strategy. He needs to dramatically up his game precisely because of those studies – that is the point that some on here seem to struggle with.

    Hint: For years, Farage and UKIP were bombed completely across all parts of the media. Was their response to retreat to twitter and complain about the nasty press barons, or did they find effective ways to enthuse their base and eat into other parties support, culminating in a stunning win on June 23rd?

    Answers on a postcard to…..

  12. @BARBAZENZERO

    This just goes to show how far into cloud cuckoo land the British public is in. Still, it’s encouraging that only 5% want no free trade deal at all.

  13. “The High Court decision on the six-month rule is expected on Thursday.”

    Are the barristers acting for Mr Corbyn arguing again that m’learned judge should think very carefully before interfering in the affairs of a political party?

  14. Old Nat

    Maybe I can beat your golf bag last in the rough story.

    I recall playing hockey in Cornwall in the days when the game was played on grass pitches, often of poor standard.

    One of my team shelled the ball upfield and both sides chased after it, but the grass was so long that no-one could find it!

    Eventually someone did, but to no significant advantage, as to run with it was all but impossible.

  15. Alec

    ” should think very carefully before …….”

    Wasn’t that Brenda?

  16. Millie

    :-)

  17. Does anyone remember the phrase that “viewers in Scotland have their own programme”?

  18. Prof Howard

    Surely that must be a figment of your imagination?

    Why, only this evening we had David Torrance appearing on the BBC News Channel explaining that the Scottish Six was impossible because BBC staff in Scotland could do radio, the hard bits like dealing with pictures was way beyond their capacity.

    Fortunately for him, the interview seemed to be from a video booth, where no BBC Scotland staff could swing the sound boom round to show how incompetent they were. :-)

  19. “He needs to dramatically up his game precisely because of those studies –that is the point that some on here seem to struggle with.

    Hint: For years, Farage and UKIP were bombed completely across all parts of the media. Was their response to retreat to twitter and complain about the nasty press barons, or did they find effective ways to enthuse their base and eat into other parties support, culminating in a stunning win on June 23rd? ”

    ————–

    Peeps get the need to up the game on media, I volunteered it myself a while back, and you picked up on it rather. You keep raising phantom issues…

    And still seem unable to get the significance of the media yourself in all this. It’s not just a case of being anti some things but also being for others. Farage was pushing at an open door. Media were only too happy to sell an immigration/Brexit message. And then peeps proclaim amazing media management of those who benefit from media having the same agenda. What Corbyn has to do is much, much harder.

    And isn’t helped by his MPs sticking the boot in. It’s tricky revamping a media strategy when dealing with a rebellion and then fighting a yearly reelection battle.

  20. @ ProfHoward

    I can’t find a clip either on YouTube or IPlayer. But it did exist :-)

  21. @ ProfHoward

    This is the closes one can get

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k7scMC7YSDQ

  22. “The news where you are”

    https://youtu.be/ZhL57cjN8xY

  23. Owen Smith shows up how divided Labour has become.

    Small c Labour in Wales is bewildered by the Corbyn phenomenon.

  24. And for the North of England, “we” certainly don’t want their to be any further “news” about you and tghis “Powerhouse” nonsense!

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c04690ae-58dd-11e6-9f70-badea1b336d4.html

  25. @Rach

    They missed a trick, they should have upsold them again. Who knows how much you can charge for a membership now?

  26. @oldnat

    can you precis the powerhouse thing? Just getting a subscription page…

  27. Carfrew

    May’s search for an industrial strategy is to turn the “Northern Powerhouse” into a nationwide agenda for boosting productivity outside the south-east.

    Which nation isn’t clear, since May excluded the SoSs for the devolved nations from the economic strategy group!

    Sounds like a little bit more for cities in other places too – at the expense of building an alternative economic power centre round Manchester.

    Whether the other ideas about Manchester being able to choose how to spend alternative revenue streams in a coherent strategy, isn’t mentioned.

  28. Millie
    Good points.
    Comparing Germany with the UK, both from the stats and from policy statements, what seems to stand out is – as you say – the greater imbalance in the German population and the active position of the Government in encouraging immigration to overcome it. While the UK has a similar but less extreme imbalance which poses long-term age-dependency and pensions stresses, Government action and policies are supposedly opposed to migration as a solution, but in reality are ineffective to the point of non-existent, and migration – which is providing about fifty percent of population increase (beneificial in being young and active, but also fertile) – is driven not by policy but by the labour market and neo-liberal economics.

  29. Carfrew

    Since I’m seeing adverts for hiring your own private jet at the top of this site, I just assumed that everyone here subscribed to the FT (or at least had access to their butler’s copy) :-)

  30. @Oldnat

    Thanks muchly. I see they’re leaving lots of wiggle room then. The original idea was that spreading investment around would struggle against the centre of gravity of London, hence an alternative hub. Colin was quite taken with it too. (I still think Scots should have a Spaceport, and a Maglev link like wot me and Statty talked about…)

  31. CB11
    What if the electorate are so stupid they think they know what needs to be done and are fed up with being eloquently persuaded by people who think they know better?

  32. Carfrew

    It sounds like standard political practice. Think up an idea, float it to test reaction, then decide.

    If the idea bombs, then deny the report having any validity. :-)

    If politically advantageous, then press ahead enthusiastically!

  33. @oldnat

    I keep getting ads about Heathrow, or synths…

  34. @oldnat

    problem with that strategy, as we know, is peeps don’t necessarily know if they need summat till they got it. I mean, Scots prolly don’t realise they need a spaceport yet, but once it’s built…

  35. @John P

    “What if the electorate are so stupid they think they know what needs to be done and are fed up with being eloquently persuaded by people who think they know better?”

    ——–

    clearly they don’t know or they would be up in arms about storage taxes!!

  36. Carfrew

    The problem isn’t having the spaceport – it’s which location to put it in.

    Faslane is nice and near Glasgow, so if we can just clear the junk that’s there at the moment …..

  37. @oldnat

    but faslane is what keeps us from being overrun!!

  38. Carfrew

    I’ll take no lessons on being overrun by someone who bought all that Thorium, without realising that he would have to pay for its storage!

    No wonder you only get adverts about Heathrow.

    Nytol.

  39. ROGER M @ 9.26

    “This may especially apply to those who don’t normally even vote in general elections, but did in the EU Referendum. Are such people more likely to stay with their vote (being less informed and so voting emotionally and unlikely to be swayed with or notice extra info) or are they more likely to be volatile and change on a whim (because they are voting emotionally). Pollsters simply don’t know.”

    If it’s any help, we have a family member who keeps very much up to date with politics and can discuss knowledgeably any current issues so I wouldn’t say is less informed.
    However, this f.m, has not voted in a GE since (I think) 1983 because “there is hardly any difference between any of them”. For the referendum, the f.m. got back on the electoral register and voted Leave and would undoubtedly do so any time the question was asked again, so I don’t think either of your two categories applies.
    If a party that had a chance of winning a GE had stood on a platform of Leaving the EU since 1983 (was there one?), I think the f.m. would have voted for them. How many such people are there out there?

  40. @oldnat

    lol, at least you didn’t mention Corbyn!! Nite…

  41. @John Pilgrim

    Thanks.
    I don’t think we have had a serious debate about population growth, let alone developed a national strategy.

    Rather like the economy, we should be targeting a ‘goldilocks’ outcome for population growth: not too hot, not too cold. At the moment population growth is too high in the UK.

    We are building poor quality tiny houses in the wrong locations, simply because in population terms we are running to stand still.

  42. Re. Northern Powerhouse:
    Will Theresa May continue the Osbourne strategy of imposing Mayors on cities like Leeds despite large majorities against them in referenda? If so it might perhaps cause some nervousness among the brexiteers!

  43. CR:
    I foresee a lot of county court cases against the LP for taking money under false pretences…

    It is all very Orwellian….

  44. @Old Nat from last evening

    “n other words, some who voted Yes don’t support EU membership (and might have voted Yes because they has been told that Scotland would be out of the EU as a result of a Yes vote).

    While some who voted No do support EU membership (and might have voted No because they has been told that Scotland would be out of the EU as a result of a Yes vote).

    That might help to explain the rather high (13%) the poll shows of both sides switching positions.

    It’s always unwise to assume that people form nice neat homogenous groups on binary questions.”

    Exactly, a very clear point about a nuance which I’ve not seen anyone say before, in the media or UKPR or anywhere. I had thought the very same thing earlier this week after this Scottish YG poll came out.

  45. And of course with the PLP are roughly 40% of the members.

    (NB the longest-standing, loyalest ones many of them too, not the Johnny-come latelys who have joined 2014/15 onwards. I realise old and newer members aren’t clearly defined homogeneous groups of course, before you say it..)

  46. RICH

    @” What a mess Labour have got themselves in”

    Its the hatred that surprises me . Its the hatred which is destroying them.

    The venom directed by McDonnell & Corbyn in that Vice interview I linked to , to , and I quote-” a coup, by a group of three extremely well funded neoliberals, taking over and party isolating the left as much as they could, driving through policies on behalf of capital.” is stark.

    And, I think informative.

    Note the central accusation made of the Blair/Mandelson/Brown “coup” (!) -Not Iraq, but “policies on behalf of capital”-being “neoliberal”.

    Corbyn/McDonnell , in that interview are railing against twenty years of leadership by people they simply do not recognise as belonging to the Labour Party they believe in.

    And the divide is Class based. Blair & his gang accomodated -nay supported Capitalists-the tribe which , in Corbyn/McDonnell’s world exploits & impoverishes . Corbyn says “. “Blair should silence himself, and go and play with his money somewhere far away..”. Play with his money!-the filthy lucre tainted by Capitalism.

    Now consider that this interview was conducted before Miliband lost the GE-when Corbyn/McDonnell were warming to the prospect of exerting some pressure on a Labour Government with a slim majority.

    These two are now in charge of the Party; after a complete accident which was never supposed to have happened.

    Now contemplate Owen Smith’s Policy agenda, and the almost daily announcements of Tax & Spend rises with which he bows to the new reality-the abandonment by The Labour Party of its flirtation with Capitalists.

    The Labour Party is going through a convulsive metamorphosis, and surely the soup of swirling cells inside its inert pupa have already settled into the form of the imago which will emerge-a shiny new Anti-Capitalist , Left Wing Socialist Party.

    Whether Smith or Corbyn win.

    The complete lack of proud exposition of the electorally successful leadership which Corbyn/McDonnell have overthrown just demonstrates, I suppose how complacent its current representatives had become.

    But I read the first such today:-

    http://labourlist.org/2016/08/luke-akehurst-we-had-an-election-winning-social-movement-20-years-ago-it-was-called-the-labour-party/

    It is the response to the accusations by Corbynn/McDonnell in that Vice interview which has been missing throughout this transition of power in The Labour Party.

    But it is far far too late-as the comments section under that article perhaps demonstrates.

    Mr Akehurst concludes that he ” ain’t taking any lectures about socialism from people who wouldn’t know what it was if it slapped them in the face, “.

    I think he will be disappointed -he is in for many many lectures, and I really don’t see what he can do about it.

    Theresa May has a massive opportunity here. The space occupied by New Labour became infested by undesirable things-but it was a large space with a lot of voters in it. As Labour retreats to an angry Class based anti-business , anti-wealth revenge movement, she can step nimbly into the space it vacates.

  47. The PLP are so convinced everyone in the country backs them and they can win the GE so why do they keep threatening to split but don’t do it. Here is why:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/02/who-gets-keep-voters/

  48. @ Colin

    There are fair points in your comment (although the venom is on both sides of the party – which now seems to have destroyed the centre too).

    But just two points – on the abandonment of the centre of politics.

    One is that the recession effectively pushed Labour out of it – they could not credibly continue to occupy it.

    The other is the membership changes. In Parliament’s study on party memberships, it is clear that Labour was losing members steadily during Blair and Brown. There must have been various reasons, and it is likely that Labour lost to Greens and LibDems (so lefties and centrists), and no doubt eventually to the Conservatives, as well as those who became out of party people. There is a surge in the membership with Milliband, but it is effectively only in 2010-11, so I guess from LibDems. So ideological changes must have taken place.

    Indeed the ESRC funded study of party memberships shows that already the pre-2015 membership defined themselves on the left of the Labour Party by a large margin. This then shifted even more with the post-2015 new members (upto February about 12,000 people left the LP, so it could have further contributed to the shift).

    So unless we assume that in case of leadership failures they would leave the LP, it is likely that Labour continue to moving to the left (and eventually they will dominate in the CLP and NEC, in parliamentary candidates, etc).

  49. Test

  50. @ Colin
    [hopefully I identified the reason for automod]

    There are fair points in your comment (although both sides of the party behaves very similarly – which now seems to have destroyed the centre too).

    But just two points – about LP’s moving out of the centre of politics.

    One is that the recession effectively pushed Labour out of it – they could not credibly continue to occupy it.

    The other is the membership changes. In Parliament’s study on party memberships, it is clear that Labour was losing members steadily during Blair and Brown. There must have been various reasons, and it is likely that Labour lost to Greens and LibDems (so from the left and from centrists), and no doubt eventually to the Conservatives, as well as those who became out of party people. There is a surge in the membership with Milliband, but it is effectively only in 2010-11, so I probably from LibDems. So ideological changes must have taken place.

    The study of party memberships shows that already the pre-2015 membership defined themselves to be on the left of the Labour Party by a large margin. This then shifted even more with the post-2015 new members (upto February about 12,000 people left the LP, so it could have further contributed to the shift).

    So unless we assume that in case of leadership failures they would leave the LP, it is likely that Labour continue to moving to the left (and they will dominate in the CLPs and NEC, in parliamentary candidates, etc).

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