YouGov released a new Scottish poll last night, their first poll on Scottish Independence since the EU referendum. Voting intention in another Independence referendum stands at YES 47%(+1), NO 53%(-1). Changes are from May and don’t suggest any significant difference from before the EU referendum (tabs here).

There were several polls before the European referendum suggesting that a Brexit vote would push a majority of Scots towards supporting independence, but people are not necessarily good judges of how they would respond to hypothetical situations.

On the weekend straight after after the EU referendum there were snap Scottish polls from Panelbase and Survation that had suggested a majority in favour of independence. That may be down to methodological differences, or may simply be down to timing – one can easily imagine that a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of the unexpected EU result would produce different results to one taken a month later when the news has sunk in (and indeed, that we might well see different results once British exit has been negotiated and its full impact is clear to the Scottish electorate)


610 Responses to “YouGov Scottish Independence poll”

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  1. Ooerr wallop!

    UK service sector PMI falls at fastest rate since March 2009. Sector now in contraction. Graph falling off a cliff.

    Nothing to do with Brexit though. No no no….

  2. @Colin – it’s also the hatred that really gets to me.

    This is a problem the left have always had. There is a group that maintain a morally superior mental worldview – only we understand, only we really care, no one else’s ideas are valid – and they despise anyone who questions them, seeing only one enemy, so all who don’t agree are lumped in with that one opponent. Ethical purity destroys them.

    To think that they can’t see anything good that Blair did is quite incredible. Absolutely no sense of perspective, which is why they can’t connect with the majority of voters.

    It’s awful.

  3. Alec: “UK service sector PMI falls at fastest rate since March 2009. Sector now in contraction. Graph falling off a cliff.”

    And the eurozone PMI is showing healthy growth. With the NIESR forecasting an extra 320,000 UK unemployed this time next year, I wonder if the point will come where we regret loss of free movement as the tide changes?

    Anyway, it looks possible that Brexit will solve the “immigration problem” through economic rather than political effects. Rather a lot of collateral damage, though…

  4. Alec

    Quite right. There is at least one “group” [1] within “the left” (whatever that means) who are intolerant.

    There a similar people on the “right” (wherever people arbitrarily place that definition) who are also intolerant.

    There are some Greens and Climate Change deniers who are intolerant.

    There are both Nationalists and Unionists, Europhiles and Brexiteers who are intolerant.

    Intolerance and hatred frequently manifest themselves in arbitrarily stereotyping a “group” as having a single set of characteristics – as if no other group displayed these.

    When I read your post …….

  5. New thread on LP splitting

  6. Alec
    I know. How people can dismiss Blair and Brown as being just like the Conservatives beggars belief. They either did not live through the 18 years of Conservative rule or have collective amnesia.
    By 1997I had been a social worker in Manchester for 11 years and had witnessed at first hand the paucity of the resources available to help children and families.
    Under the “Blair Regime” services were transformed and, just to give one example,we were able to offer far more help to children who were leaving care .
    By 1997, all the evidence showed that young adults who’d been in care were far more likely to be homeless, in prison, or in poor health. Resources were put in place to make concerted efforts to tackle these problems and provide these vulnerable youngsters with more support.
    Since 2010 these services have gradually been reduced, hence the increasing numbers of young people begging on the streets.

  7. @Valerie,

    Fair enough, but that doesn’t mean all agree with that. Before 1997′ my council tax was going up around 2-3%, when Labour got in with large majority’s and Lab actually won in Warwick where I was living, I was getting increases up to 7.5% until Prescott tactically capped at 5% several years later. Many of these increases were a punishing three times the rate of inflation.

    Don’t assume everybody wanted carte Blanche money to all elements of the public sector, no matter how compelling and emotive social work sounds.

  8. Fair enough Rich.
    As I know you’d never assume that everyone had the same blissful childhood you experienced in the 80s.

  9. “Comparing Germany with the UK, both from the stats and from policy statements, what seems to stand out is – as you say – the greater imbalance in the German population and the active position of the Government in encouraging immigration to overcome it.”

    That’s a widely believed but not very logical interpretation of what has just happened.

    If Germany needs workers it should bring in a set number each year, selected based on predicted performance. What it has done is take in a huge lump in 1-2 years that is self-selected, about whom almost nothing is even known.

    I think it is more likely that this was a very emotional expression of Merkel’s personal Lutheranism, than a rational policy driven by economics.

    “Government action and policies are supposedly opposed to migration as a solution, but in reality are ineffective to the point of non-existent, and migration – which is providing about fifty percent of population increase (beneificial in being young and active, but also fertile) – is driven not by policy but by the labour market and neo-liberal economics.”

    That *is* rational economics-driven immigration policy: let in the people the market wants, chuck the rest.

  10. Another way of looking at it is that a country pursuing immigration for economic reasons of population replacement will treat immigration like a milkround: invite a huge number of applications and throw most of them away.

    Merkel has done the opposite, inviting applications from only certain groups, but then accepting every applicant.

    All emotion, no policy.

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